TODAY'S PAPER | SEPTEMBER 06, 2023

B3W vs BRI
Huma Yusuf | Published June 28, 2021

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.

THE developing situation in Afghanistan has once again triggered an existential crisis
in the US-Pakistan relationship. Forget years of mumblings about making the
relationship more holistic, we’re in a back-to-the-future scenario with a focus on
security and anti-terrorism.

But the conversation is a bit different (so far, at least). Pakistan has refused to host US bases, and has
made clear it will not engage in military conflict with the Afghan Taliban. US President Joe Biden
continues to give Pakistan the cold shoulder, and has yet to speak with our prime minister. When
they do speak, expect throwback discussions, with Washington asking Islamabad to ‘do more’, even
though the limitations of Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban are clear.

It seems difficult to imagine how the two countries might argue over anything other than Afghanistan
— and potential regional or global terrorism threats resulting from instability across the Durand Line
— over the coming decade. But there may be another conversation in the offing.

Both initiatives are likely to be complementary.

The G7 recently announced the Build Back Better World Partnership (B3W), a commitment to invest
up to $40 trillion to plug the infrastructure gap in low- and middle-income countries exacerbated by
the Covid-19 crisis. This initiative gives Islam­abad a new framework within which to eng­a­ge with
Washington beyond the security realm.

The B3W is pitched as a challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and a key part of the US
plan to counter China’s growing global influence. There is therefore a knee-jerk sense that there will
be no place for Pakistan in B3W planning, especially given that CPEC is among the most strategic and
well-developed aspects of the BRI, mounting challenges and disruptions notwithstanding. Biden’s
snub to Pakistan at a recent environmental roundtable also suggests B3W talks may be a non-starter.

But speaking to the New York Times last week, Imran Khan got it right when he asked “why do we
have to choose sides — either it’s the US or China? I think we should have a relationship with
everyone”. Balancing relationships between competing superpowers is the only viable option for
Pakistan.

It helps that despite a B3W versus BRI media narrative, the initiatives are likely to be
complementary. BRI’s focus is on strategic infrastructure such as ports, and most expenditure to date
has been on transport and power. The B3W, meanwhile, will focus on climate, health, digital
technology, and gender equity and equality.
It remains to be seen whether China embraces a parallel approach or seeks to clamp down B3W
ambitions by tramping on the same terrain. China has since 2015 been pushing for a ‘Digital Silk
Road’ that would overlay traditional infrastructure projects developed as part of the BRI. Since the
pandemic hit, Beijing has also started to speak of a ‘Health Silk Road’. But with 20 per cent of BRI
projects affected by Covid-related delays and financing constraints, Beijing may need to prioritise
BRI projects over the coming years. This leaves countries like Pakistan with an opportunity to
participate in both BRI and B3W in an optimal service of domestic needs.

Moreover, the fact that B3W is a G7 initiative, and not solely a US enterprise, also tempers dangers
that a zero-sum mentality will dominate. B3W has its origins in a Trump administration plan to
counter Chinese influence through a rival to BRI. It also had the dual goal of reducing US
development expenditure by ramping up private sector investment. The initial focus was on hard
infrastructure such as electricity projects.

But the idea has evolved under Biden, and will be further shaped by the inclusion of other G7
countries with less polarised views of China. Public statements emphasise that B3W is a ‘green BRI’,
implying a complementary rather than hostile track. Given that the EU has recently negotiated a
trade agreement with China, and Italy, a G7 member, is a BRI participant, the either/or dimension is
unlikely to materialise as bluntly as some are forecasting.

B3W may also create opportunities for regional integration, as both India and Afghanistan are likely
to participate in some projects. This would be a welcome alternative to current projections, which see
the Pakistan-India rivalry deepening in an echo of China-US tensions.

Key challenges will result from how B3W is structured. To work, the initiative will need to corral
multiple governments and mobilise multiple sources of private capital, a slower and messier
approach than BRI’s bilaterally negotiated, largely state-funded projects. But post facto
complications and renegotiations linked to many BRI projects may have increased appetite for better
planned projects at the outset.

As always, the ultimate onus lies on Pak­is­tan to map its needs, clarify its values and priorities, and
participate in international initiatives so as to serve public needs.

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.

Twitter: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, June 28th, 2021

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