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Indian markets?
Oct 10, 2023
Dear Investors,
This is the tenth newsletter from the desk of Monarch AIF and we are glad to interact with you once again. While
the topic of atmanirbharta (self-reliance) has been much talked about on the economic front, there is a discernibly
strong ongoing trend in the Indian stock market which is well and truly making it self-reliant and even possibly less
volatile! This self-reliance is stemming from consistently growing DII flows which in turn is primarily driven by
increased participation of retail investors (mainly through the non-cyclical SIP route). While it is no secret that
retail investors have been historically underinvested in equities, it appears that they are getting in for the long haul
now through regular investing routes. In this newsletter we undertake analysis of scale and size of DII flows and
argue whether consistently growing DII flows are changing the dynamics of Indian stock markets.
Our study throws some interesting insights into how SIP flows now command a lion’s share of net MF flows and
consequently net DII flows. We also note that cumulative DII flows are higher than FII flows on YTD/3Y/5Y/10Y basis
thus reinforcing the belief of self-reliance led by better awareness and conviction of retail investors on India’s long-
term story. We see several second order implications of heightened DII flows for Indian stock markets and some of
these include i) consistently rising valuations of good quality companies, ii) reducing free floats as institutional
holding keeps building up, iii) need for promoter groups to provide higher liquidity to meet institutional demand
and iv) increase in new listings required to absorb flows. We deliberate on the implications for investors from this
trend and touch upon what can upset this equation. We follow this with the review of our current fund’s (MNCL
CCF – I) performance as of end-Sep 2023.
100 46
50 31
0
-50 -5 -21 DII Flows were negative only
-100 -69 -54 once in last 9 years (that too
-150 in Covid year FY21)
-134
-200
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
YTD
MF Net Inflow DII Net Inflow
Source: SEBI, Bloomberg, Monarch AIF, YTDFY24 is Apr-Sep 2023
Fast growing SIP flows have been the key reason of DII flows’ strength and have remained
immune to even ‘six sigma’ disruptions
The single biggest factor in turning around the fortunes of DII flows has been the widespread acceptance and
penetration of SIPs for investing by retail investors. Gross SIP flows which were nearly non-existent just 10 years
ago have gone up 4x in the last seven years and are running at a run-rate of ~Rs15000cr/mth in YTDFY24. Unlike
other types of flows which show cyclicality, the SIP flows have surprisingly grown through all big events like 1.
Demonetization, 2. Covid crisis and 3. Current global rate hikes.
Exhibit 2: Gross average monthly SIP inflows have grown 4x in last 7 years
10000 8340
7724 8007
8000
5599
6000
3660
4000
2000
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 YTDFY24
Demon Covid Global Rate Hikes
Average Gross SIP Flows/Month
Source: AMFI, Bloomberg, Monarch AIF, YTDFY24 is Apr-Aug 2023
0.0 0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Aug'23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
No of Active SIP (Cr) SIP AUM (Lakh Cr) Top 30 Cities Beyond 30 Cities
Source: Cafemutual, AMFI, Bloomberg, Monarch AIF Source: Cafemutual, AMFI, Bloomberg, Monarch AIF
Retail/HNI investors finally taking a ‘long-term long-only’ bet on India without getting
overwhelmed by short term volatility
The above-mentioned phenomenon is visible from the growth in outstanding equity folios of mutual funds for both
these categories of investors (Exhibit 7/8). Retail folios have grown at a CAGR of 8%, and after a brief pause seen
during covid years (FY20/21), the growth has noticeably returned in the last two years. HNI folios’ growth has been
an astounding CAGR of 28% and has been largely consistent across years.
Exhibit 7: Retail Equity MF folios grown steadily Exhibit 8: HNI equity MF folios grown rapidly
100 Retail Folios have 92 94 8.0 HNI Folios have grown at
grown at CAGR of 8% 80 7.0 CAGR of 28% 6.5 6.7
80 5.6
6.0
60 60 62
In Mn
37 39 4.0
40 33 29 31 35 2.5
3.0
1.9
2.0
20 0.9 1.2
1.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7
0 0.0
FY21
FY24*
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY21
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY22
FY23
FY24*
Source: AMFI, Monarch AIF, *till June 2023 Source: AMFI, Monarch AIF, *till June 2023
‘Investors should purchase stocks like they purchase groceries, not like they purchase perfume’ –
Benjamin Graham
0
CY08-CY12 CY13-CY17 CY13-CY23 CY18-CY23 CY20-CY23 CY23
FII DII
Source: SEBI, Bloomberg, Monarch AIF, CY23 data is for Jan-Sep’23
FIIs have preferred India among all EMs and could continue doing so
FII flows have remained the highest for India among all the emerging markets at US$65bn in the last 10 years
(Exhibit 10). We believe that FII flows would continue to remain positive for India given the fundamental
attractiveness of the market and limited options in other markets, due to various geopolitical and demographic
reasons. Indian markets provide lot of attractive characteristics for FIIs – 1. Large size – India’s mcap is now 5th
highest in the world, 2. Breadth – Indian markets have 400/100 stocks with Mcap above US$1bn/US$5bn with
accompanying decent liquidity and 3. Diversity with quality – Indian markets have representation from wide range
of sectors/sub-sectors and provide high private ownership as well as superior ROE metrics vs. many other markets.
Exhibit 10: FII flows (US$ bn) have remained highest for India in last 10 years among all EMs
Year India Indonesia Philippines Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Brazil
CY14 16.2 3.8 (0.3) 13.2 (1.1) (2.0) 9.1
CY15 3.3 (1.6) (0.6) 3.3 (4.4) (5.1) 5.8
CY16 2.9 1.3 1.1 11.0 2.2 (0.6) 3.9
CY17 8.0 (3.0) (0.2) 6.7 (0.8) 2.5 4.5
CY18 (4.6) (3.7) 1.3 (12.2) (8.9) (2.9) (3.1)
CY19 14.2 3.5 (1.9) 9.4 (1.5) (2.7) (11.0)
CY20 23.4 (3.2) (3.9) (15.3) (8.3) (5.8) (9.7)
CY21 3.8 2.7 (0.2) (15.3) (1.6) (0.8) (1.2)
CY22 (17.0) 4.3 0.8 (44.0) 6.0 1.1 19.4
CY23* 15.1 (0.3) 0.3 (2.2) (4.5) (0.4) 1.9
10 Yr Cum. 65.1 3.7 (3.7) (45.4) (22.9) (16.7) 19.7
Source: Bloomberg, Monarch AIF, *CY23 flows are for Jan-Sep’23
1. Reducing free float as Institutions (led by DIIs) build long only positions with long-term
holding mindset
Institutional holding in companies in India (>5000cr Mcap) has expanded from 19% in FY12 to 25% in June’23
(Exhibit 12) and this has been led in a big way by DIIs. The strong inflows that DIIs have received in last 10 years
have been invested in these companies with a long-term holding mindset. Another striking feature in India has
been the fact that promoters have chosen to stay invested despite increasing valuations and have provided limited
liquidity in the market (Exhibit 11). Promoter stake reduction has been limited to 200bps in last 12 years with
aggregate stake of promoters still at ~56%. This has led to free float getting squeezed from 23% in FY12 to 19% in
June’23, which in turn has pushed up the valuations materially for quality companies.
Exhibit 11: Promoter stake has remained high and still Exhibit 12: Institutional holding gone up by 600bps in
above 55% despite partial reduction last decade and reduced the free float
15.0
50
Source: Bloomberg, Monarch AIF, *All cos>5000cr Mcap and 5Y Avg ROE>15% Source: Bloomberg, Monarch AIF, *All cos>5000cr Mcap and 5Y Avg ROE>15%
3. Requirement of continuous promoter stake sales to make way for higher free floats – already
underway in CY23
We believe that increased promoter stake sales may be required to absorb the increased institutional flows and
make way for higher free floats. We had earlier mentioned that data shows that promoter stake reductions (Exhibit
11) have been limited to less than 200bps over the last 12 years. However, higher levels of promoter stake sales
have taken place in 9MCY23 and stand at Rs807bn. We would not be surprised to see continuation of higher
liquidity being provided by promoter groups in the coming years. Additionally, we note that PE/VC stake sales have
aggregated to Rs256bn in listed stocks in 9MCY23 which was easily absorbed in the sea of inflows.
Exhibit 16: Money raised in IPOs has remained in a range barring FY22
140000
119672
120000
100000
80000
67453
60000 51367
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 YTDFY24
I. Opening of new sub-sectors within larger sectors led by new listings – We see increased
opportunity for investors to invest in several new sub-sectors (within larger sectors) that are getting
created due to new listings as well as spin-offs. In the last 5-7 years alone, a multitude of new sub-sectors
have been created which include electronic manufacturing, diagnostics, wealth management, small finance
banks, hospitals and many more. We see this trend continuing due to strong demand for investment
options by institutional investors to allocate incremental capital that is being received by them.
II. Quicker re-rating of companies showing strong execution and solid governance standards – We
expect that there would be quicker re-rating and discovery of companies showing strong execution and
solid governance standards. Institutional flows would spot them as good long-term bets and not choose to
wait for long. Promoters have also become aware of this fact and are continuously striving to improve their
execution and governance standards, as they stand to benefit the most from sustainable re-rating of their
companies. We have already seen this in several sectors in the last few years and we could see the trend
becoming stronger if the flow momentum sustains.
III. Valuations of quality franchises could sustain at higher levels for longer – The valuation expansion
of quality franchises across many sectors in India has been a topic of much debate (for long now) and we
have ourselves presented strong views on this through our past newsletters. However, we believe that the
primary reason for valuations sustaining at higher levels for longer has been the long-term holding mindset
of DII flows and limited liquidity provided by promoters. Given that DII flows could be resilient (backed by
SIP flows, as we have argued earlier in this note), this trend could be the norm going ahead unless there
are large exits by either FIIs/Promoters to benefit from high valuation.
IV. Indian market direction could be driven more by DII flows going ahead – If the SIP flow momentum
sustains and keeps taking the absolute size of DII flows higher than the market direction (and to some
extent the multiples) could well be driven by DII flows and show better resilience. This is because the DIIs
understand the long-term Indian story better and would not over-react to short-term disruption events.
I. Large lump sum outflows by both DIIs and FIIs – Large one-time outflows by both DIIs and FIIs can
put brakes on flows story of India and can upset the equation. In recent years there has been no large
lump sum drawdowns simultaneously by DIIs and FIIs (except during Covid times), and hence it would
have to be a major global event or a black swan event to cause the same.
II. Reduction in gross SIPs by 30-40% and thereby reducing the new inflow of money for DIIs –
Fall in gross SIP amount by that big a percentage would be the key monitorable in our view and large
reduction in the same can upset the equation. Since SIP flows are more structural and regular by
design, the impact would be material in case of a large reduction.
10.0% 8.7%
5.6%
5.0% 3.8%
2.2%
0.0%
1M 3M 6M 12M Since Inception*
MNCL CCF - I NIFTY 500 TRI
Source: Kotak FA, Monarch AIF, Note: i) *Absolute returns, Inception date is 23 Aug 2022, ii) Returns as on 30th Sep 2023, iii) Returns are net of fees and expenses but
on pre-tax basis, iv) NIFTY 500 total return index considered for comparison, *Please refer the disclaimer
Please refer all our previous investor newsletters here: Monarch AIF - Investor Newsletters
Warm Regards
Abhisar Jain, CFA
Head & Fund Manager
Monarch AIF