Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INDIA STRATEGY
For the YES SEC universe, Q2 FY24 results were broadly in-line with estimates, with ~90% Best Result BUYs
of our coverage universe reporting better or in-line performance. Ex. OMC and Financials,
revenue grew by 11.4% y/y better than our estimate of 10.6%, while EBITDA margins Sector Stock
expanded by 221bps y/y, lower than our working of 250bps improvement. On PAT front
(for entire YES Sec Universe), the growth stood at 28% y/y, against our est. of 41%, primarily
due to earning miss in Telecom, Consumer Durables and Tata Steel. Auto Eicher Motors, M&M
Britannia
Q2 FY24 NSE 200 Earnings snapshot FMCG
Hindustan Unilever
NSE 200 (INR bn) Sep-23 YoY % QoQ %
Revenues (ex-Financials & OMC) 17,365 3.5 2.1 Insurance Max Financial
EBITDA (ex-Financials & OMC) 3,400 32.4 4.3
Total PBT (ex-Financials & OMC) 2,200 38.8 0.3 Internet/
Bharti Airtel
Total PBT (incl. all stocks) 4,018 45.7 (0.3) Telecom
PBT – Sector wise
IT Coforge
Agro Chemicals 12.3 (55.0) 10.0
Auto / Auto Ancillaries 273.5 132.5 26.8
Bank 960.0 34.7 2.6 Metals Tata Steel, JSW Steel
Building Material 28.4 47.7 (16.2)
Cap Goods 96.6 25.1 27.4 Repco, Shriram Finance,
NBFC
Spandana
Cement 44.0 234.1 (18.5)
Chemicals 10.6 (30.5) (18.8) Ajanta Pharma, Gland
Pharma
Consumer Durables 0.8 532.1 (58.1) Pharma
Consumer Food 112.8 5.6 (4.2)
Arvind Smartspaces
Consumer Retail 24.4 4.3 7.6 Real Estate
Oberoi
Consumer Staples 54.3 15.5 6.5
Diversified 265.5 31.7 8.9
Energy 509.5 64.5 (9.7)
Entertainment 10.4 13.3 (7.7)
Healthcare 134.0 25.0 10.5
Infrastructure 60.0 115.8 21.9
Insurance 104.3 (54.8) (17.7)
IT Services 371.7 2.8 1.1
Logistics 9.7 LP (73.7)
Metals and Mining 215.3 28.8 (16.4)
NBFC 378.6 42.3 9.9
New Age / E-Comm 1.9 LP LP
Non-Lending Financials 5.9 19.5 3.1
OMC 369.1 LP (13.1)
Telecom Services (39.8) LL LL
Textiles 4.1 (32.9) (14.6)
Source: YES Sec, note: PL - profit to loss, LP – loss to profit, LL – loss to loss Note: Assessment based on 197 results out of NSE
200 Companies. Note: PBT includes exceptional gains & losses
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
1
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
32.5
28.0 28.2
24.8
16.7
10.5
3.0 3.5
OPM improves y/y basis for 2nd consecutive quarter as base turns favourable
% EBITDA Margin (Ex. Financials & OMC) YoY EBITDA Margin bps change (Ex. Financials &
OMC) 427
20.2
19.8 19.6
19.4 19.2
149
18.1
17.7 17.6
Earnings growth Ex. Financial and OMC better indicating higher growth rate returning back for other
sectors
YoY % PBT Growth (Ex. OMCs) YoY % PBT Growth (Ex. Financials &
OMCs)
52 62
39
36
31 30
29 30 23 22
26
13
9
6 5
(7) (6)
(16)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24
Source: YES Sec
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
2
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
Other income zooms 28% y/y on back of higher investments and interest rates, now accounts for 16.7%
of total PBT
YoY %
Other Income Growth (Ex. Financials & OMC) Other Income as a % of PBT (Ex. Financials &
73.8 OMC)
18.0
17.6
16.7
16.2
14.3
28.2 13.7 13.8
(5.5)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24
Source: YES Sec
Higher PBIT offset surge in interest cost translate into a flattish sequential number for interest coverage
ratio. Depreciation/sales inch higher as sales growth rate moderates to 3.5% y/y, while depreciation grows at 14.5%
x % Depreciation / Sales Ratio (Ex. Financials &
Interest Coverage Ratio (Ex. Financials &
OMC) OMC)
6.3 6.0
5.8
5.6 5.6
5.6
5.5
5.2 5.2 5.4
5.0 5.3
5.3
4.8 5.2
4.5
5.0
5.0
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24
Source: YES Sec
PAT growth still among the best seen in past eight quarters. To our surprise,
this time the earnings basket has been widespread
NSE 200 PAT y/y growth
61
44
40
28
22 22
17
(3)
Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22 Q4 FY22 Q1 FY23 Q2 FY23 Q3 FY23 Q4 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q2 FY24
Source - Company, YES Sec
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
3
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
OMC witness upgrade, while downgrades are evident in a chemical & IT space
NSE200 - Top 10 Consensus EPS Upgrade NSE200 - Top 10 Consensus EPS Downgrade
IOC 51% -37% FLUOROCHEM
Nifty 50, FY24 EPS remains flat in last four months, however, the expectation of EPS growth of 17.2% for
FY24 remains intact
984
982 982 17.2
978 13.8 14.2
10.3 10.9
972 7.6 6.4
Jun-23
Sep-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-23
Nov-23
(6.2)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Source: Bloomberg, YES Sec
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
4
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
Topline numbers for 90.5% of YES Sec universe stood largely in line or above our estimates. This
impacted EBITDA and PAT numbers positively
Revenue / NII Estimates EBITDA / PPOP Estimates PAT Estimates
9.5%
Inline 17.9% Inline Inline
6.0% 22.6%
For the YES Sec universe (Ex. OMCs & Fin), Revenue growth at 11.6% y/y was marginally better than
our estimate. Even though EBITDA improved by 221bps; it was a miss when compared to our estimate of 251bps
expansion. This had a drag on earnings too, wherein the adjusted PAT grew 28% as against our estimate of 48%.
YES Sec Universe - Revenue y/y Growth (Ex. YES Sec Universe - OPM y/y bps chng (Ex.
Financials) Financials)
53
441 391 397
240 221 251
80 58
25 24
21 19
14 15 15 13 14 (114)
11 11 11 (205)
(298) (255)
2 (474)(529)
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-23e
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-23e
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
YES Sec Universe - Adj PAT y/y Growth (Ex. YES Sec Universe - Adj PAT y/y Growth
Financials) 225
48
36
31 28
109
4 7
3
75
44 46 39
33 27
(8) (7) 19 17 17 10 17
5
(23)
Sep-23e
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23e
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
5
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
For Financial companies under YES Sec coverage, NII growth stood at 20% marginally lower than our
estimates. PPOP registered a jump of 18% y/y as against our estimates of 28%, this impacted Bottomline (PAT)
which grew at 28% y/y as against our estimates of 34%
YES Sec Universe - NII y/y Growth (Banks & YES Sec Universe - PPOP y/y Growth (Banks
NBFC) & NBFC)
44
30
26 26 29 28 28
22 23
20 18
19 17 15 17 17
16 17
14 9 8 7
14
11 11 3
9
(3)
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Sep-23e
Sep-23e
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
YES Sec Universe - Adj PAT y/y Growth
(Banks & NBFC)
121
64 60
54 58
46 47 44
36 32 34
28
15 21
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-23e
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
6
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
7
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
8
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
9
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
10
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
11
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock coverage universe
Automobile Stock
Ashok Leyland
Rating
ADD
TP
200
Aggregate coverage margins back at FY19 levels Bharat Forge BUY 1,295
EBITDA for coverage (including TTMT) in-line to estimates Eicher Motors BUY 4,116
in-line as for 2W/PV the growth would likely be at ~15-18%/7-9% (for Navratri like to
like). However, key volumes influencing factors ahead would be 1) impending rural
recovery (especially entry segments which is under pressure), 2) new products launch
(especially in PV and 2Ws) and 3) government spends ahead of elections on infra and
agri sectors (CV and tractors). We expect 2Ws industry to grow ~9-10% YoY, PV/CV
at 7-10% YoY and tractors at 0-2% YoY for FY24E. We do not anticipate material
surprises (on either side), to play out in near-term.
Top Picks– TTMT, AL, TVSL, MSIL top OEMs picks; Prefer BHFC, EXID,
Motherson, ENDU in Ancs
We prefer, 4Ws over 2Ws on strong demand and a stable competitive environment.
We expect the CV cycle to gather further momentum in FY24 TTMT, AL, MSIL, EIM,
TVSL are our preferred picks among OEMs while we like BHFC, MOTHERSON, and
ENDU among ancs.
DEEP SHAH
Lead Analyst
deep.shah@ysil.in
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
12
Automobile
Exhibit 1: Aggregate EBITDA margins (incl TTMT) expanded ~50bp QoQ at 13.5%
16 14.3
14
13.4 13.0 13.5
11.8 12.1 12.3
14.6 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.5
12 10.8 13.5 13.4 14.0
9.8 12.7 12.6 12.9 9.9 9.7 12.7
10
12.4 8.8 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.6
11.3 8.4 8.2 11.3 11.3
7.2 10.4 7.6
10.3
8 9.7
9.1
6
4
1.2
2
0
(2) -0.2
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
Source: Company, YES Sec
Exhibit 2: Margins expanded for 2Ws while contracted for PVs and CVs
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
13
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks
Banks Company
BOB
Rating
BUY
TP
290
Most banks see margin compression but core fee AXSB BUY 1400
Most banks saw sequential contraction in NIM with only CUB, RBL, FED CUB ADD 165
and AXSB posting a sequential expansion among coverage banks DCB ADD 125
The sequential expansion of net interest margin amongst coverage banks was reported Note: Latest updated Targets and Recommendations
only by CUB, RBL, FED and AXSB at 7bps, 1bp, 1bp and 1bp respectively. For CUB, the
margin expansion was driven by rise in yield on advances outpacing the rise in cost of
deposits. For FED, the negative impact of incremental CRR and positive impact of
capital raise canceled each other out. NIM remained flat QoQ for IIB. The sequential
margin contraction was high for HDFCB, CSB and KMB at -70bps, -56bps and -35bps
respectively. HDFCB was impacted by consciously maintained excess liquidity. For
ICICI, BOB, DCB, INBK, SBI and IDFCFB, NIM was down by -25bps, -20bps, -14bps, -
10bps, -4bps and -1bp respectively. In terms of absolute level of NIM, it was particularly
elevated for IDFCFB, RBL and KMB at 6.32%, 5.54% and 5.22% respectively. NIM was
also healthy for CSB, ICICI, IIB and AXSB at 4.84%, 4.53%, 4.29%, and 4.11%
respectively. NIM for CUB, DCB, INBK and HDFCB was mid-range at 3.74%, 3.69%,
3.46% and 3.4%. NIM was relatively lower for BOB, FED and SBI at 3.07%, 3.16% and
3.29% respectively.
All coverage banks posted healthy sequential loan growth with IDFCFB,
KMB and CSB leading the pack
The banks that grew the fastest sequentially from our coverage universe were IDFCFB,
KMB and CSB at 6.8%, 6.0% and 5.5% respectively. The banks that followed in this
regard were FED, DCB, ICICI, HDFCB, IIB, AXSB and RBL with sequential loan growth
of 5.1%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5% and 4.4% respectively. Sequential growth was
also reasonable for BOB, SBI, INBK and CUB at 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1% and 3.0% respectively.
Sequential fee income growth was strong for BOB, DCB, CSB and INBK.
Sequential opex growth was elevated for SBI and CUB
Sequential fee income grew the fastest for BOB, DCB, CSB and INBK at 32.4%, 29.3%,
26% and 20% respectively. The sequential fee income growth was also healthy for FED,
KMB, AXSB and HDFCB at 14.5%, 10.9%, 10.6% and 10.3% respectively. The fee
income sequentially de-grew for CUB and SBI at -1.9% and -1.4% respectively. Total
opex sequentially de-grew only for RBL at -0.8%. The sequential growth in total opex
SHIVAJI THAPLIYAL
was somewhat high for BOB, IIB, AXSB and IDFCFB at 7.5%, 7.1%, 5.9% and 5.8% Head of Research
respectively. Total opex grew the fastest for SBI, CUB, HDFCB and FED at 20.3%, & Lead Analyst
11.4%, 9.5% and 8.4% respectively. SBI was impacted due to an upward revision of shivaji.thapliyal@ysil.in
wage hike.
We most prefer BOB, AXSB, SBI, INBK, ICICI and FED in the banking
space, while we least prefer DCB, CUB, IDFCFB, KMB and RBL SIDDHARTH RAJPUROHIT, Analyst
Our detailed 14-bank pecking order is provided at the top on the right-hand side of this
page.
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
14
Banks
HDFCB 4.9 57.7 3.40 (70) (70) 107.3 2,284 1,885 16.0 30.3 10.3 19.5 9.5 37.2
ICICI 5.0 18.3 4.53 (25) 22 85.8 40 (33) 0.4 23.8 7.5 16.2 3.5 20.8
SBI 3.4 13.3 3.29 (4) (3) 71.3 (6) 91 1.5 12.3 (1.4) 10.0 20.3 34.6
KMB 6.0 18.5 5.22 (35) 7 86.9 179 (355) 1.0 23.5 10.9 23.7 0.8 18.9
AXSB 4.5 22.7 4.11 1 15 93.9 274 376 3.0 18.9 10.6 31.4 5.9 34.1
IIB 4.7 21.3 4.29 0 5 87.7 86 534 4.3 18.0 0.0 13.2 7.1 24.5
BOB 3.6 19.3 3.07 (20) (26) 79.9 (43) 312 (1.5) 6.4 32.4 31.7 7.5 17.0
INBK 3.1 14.2 3.46 (10) 28 73.4 2 347 0.6 22.5 20.0 11.3 4.6 19.0
IDFCFB 6.8 26.1 6.32 (1) 49 102.1 (629) (708) 5.5 31.6 2.6 45.6 5.8 33.7
FED 5.1 19.6 3.16 1 (14) 82.8 33 (245) 7.2 16.7 14.5 29.6 8.4 26.2
CUB 3.0 2.3 3.74 7 (35) 83.0 100 (300) 3.0 (5.2) (1.9) 8.4 11.4 17.2
RBL 4.4 21.3 5.54 1 52 85.0 (33) 574 3.7 25.6 5.9 24.6 (0.8) 16.3
CSB 5.5 27.4 4.84 (56) (76) 87.5 127 425 (5.6) 5.8 26.0 65.6 4.4 49.4
DCB 5.1 19.1 3.69 (14) (19) 81.9 (55) (273) 1.1 15.7 29.3 26.0 1.0 13.7
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research, * NIM for 2QFY24, Sorted on Market capitalisation
HDFCB 17.5 21.7 1.3 34.5 0.6 0.5 1.5 (10.4) 1.3 74.0
ICICI 0.8 23.0 1.7 (11.9) 0.0 0.2 (54.9) (64.6) 2.5 82.6
SBI (23.3) (16.9) 0.5 (48.2) 0.0 0.0 (95.4) (96.2) 2.6 91.9
KMB 5.6 28.2 1.5 9.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 167.6 1.7 79.1
AXSB 4.2 12.1 1.5 (18.4) 0.6 0.4 (21.3) 48.2 1.7 94.0
IIB (0.5) 10.0 1.9 6.5 1.0 1.3 (1.8) (14.7) 1.9 71.0
BOB (8.6) 23.0 1.9 72.1 1.0 0.9 11.0 32.8 3.3 93.2
INBK (0.5) 15.4 1.6 7.0 0.5 1.3 (10.9) (24.7) 5.0 95.6
IDFCFB 2.0 38.4 3.1 21.8 2.0 1.2 11.0 24.6 2.1 84.1
FED 9.0 11.8 0.8 (25.5) 0.6 0.1 (71.8) (83.6) 2.3 71.0
CUB (6.4) (19.8) 2.0 (41.2) (0.0) 0.5 (63.2) (46.7) 4.7 71.0
RBL 17.0 48.9 3.0 (2.5) 2.0 3.6 140.6 165.2 3.1 88.4
CSB (14.3) (34.5) 1.0 63.6 0.3 (0.2) NA (10.7) 1.3 91.8
DCB 0.9 10.9 4.3 15.5 1.1 0.4 5.2 28.0 3.4 75.5
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research, Annualised NPA Addition Ratio, ^ Annualised, Sorted on Market capitalisation
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
15
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock coverage universe
APOLLOPIPE
Rating
BUY
TP
820
Plastic Pipes: Strong plumbing demand, robust works in Jal-Jeevan mission, enabled
plastic pipe companies to register stellar growth in Q2FY24. Incrementally with steady
PVC resin prices, companies registered steady EBITDA/Kg. Managements believe that
demand is likely to remain robust & they foresee massive growth in coming quarters.
Though there was destocking at dealer levels due to sharp drop in PVC resin prices in
early Oct’23, the channel has resumed restocking with improvement in prices. Hence
H2FY24 will continue to witness strong trajectory. On resin front, the prices are
expected to remain range-bound & with no major volatility. Eastern markets are
witnessing sharp surge & hence all companies are setting-up capacities in the said
region to cater the growth. We reckon this segment will continue to outperform other
segments & Apollo Pipes & Supreme Industries Ltd remain our preferred pick from
Plastic Pipes segment.
Woodpanels: Demand for overall segment was better than expected. Laminates
outperformed the growth and Plywoods registered steady growth. MDFs demand
domestically grew sharply but growing imports of MDF dented the performance of
domestic manufacturers. Elevated timber cost continued to weigh on operating margins
of the companies. Though couple of manufacturers took price hikes, the full impact of
same will be witnessed from coming quarters. With increase in sales of real-estate &
new construction picking up, woodpanel industry should witness healthy demand from
H2FY24. However growing competition form unorganized segment, could limit the
outperformance by organized manufacturers. We prefer Greenply Industries Ltd &
Century Plyboards ltd from this segment.
From our universe we recommend Hindware Home Innovations Ltd, Apollo Pipes Ltd VICKY WAGHWANI, Associate
& Greenply Industries Ltd as our Top-picks.
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
16
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW
Stock picks
Capital Goods
Company Rating TP
L&T NEUTRAL 2,929
Apar ADD 6,000
Voltamp BUY 5,836
0% -1% -3%
ABB (CY)
Voltamp
Electronics
Triveni Turbine
L&T
KEC
GET&D
Apar Industries
Cummins
Thermax
Engineers India
Bharat
900 791
688
700 588
500 346 343 294
300 211 193 172
100 16
(100)
(41)
(300)
ABB (CY)
Voltamp
Thermax
KEC
Triveni Turbine
L&T
GET&D
Bharat Electronics
Cummins
Apar Industries
Engineers India
ABHIJEET SINGH
Lead Analyst
abhijeet.singh@ysil.in
+91 22 6885 0521
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
17
Capital Goods
Strong margin and other income led to 45% YoY PAT growth for the universe
PAT growth stood strong at 45% YoY (ex-L&T, at 46% YoY) led by expanded EBITDA Margin and
higher other income due to higher interest rates and increased investments value in Mutual
Funds. GE T&D PAT grew 334% YoY on a low base while ABB recorded 115% YoY growth in
PAT. Apart from KEC (1% growth in PAT), all other companies reported more than 20% YoY PAT
growth.
334%
115%
69%
49% 45% 44% 38% 33% 30% 20%
1%
GET&D
KEC
Triveni Turbine
Voltamp
Bharat Electronics
Cummins
Thermax
L&T
ABB
Apar Industries
Engineers India
Source: Company, YES Sec
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
18
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock picks
Cement Stock
ACC
Rating
BUY
TP
2,467
Ambuja BUY 487
Volume led earning recovery, cost moderation Birla Corp NEUTRAL 1,370
Dalmia Bharat BUY 2,896
benefit yet to chip in India Cements REDUCE 195
JK Lakshmi NEUTRAL 855
Double-digit volumes growth drive robust revenue
Orient Cement NEUTRAL 216
Aggregate revenue for our coverage came largely as anticipated, grown by +14% y/y
in Q2FY24 on account of strong volume growth with marginal decline in NSR. In Ramco Cement ADD 1,163
Q2FY24, Aggregate volume of our coverage grew by +15% y/y aided by newly added Sagar Cements BUY 315
capacities and higher infra & construction activities. Many large players from our
Shree Cements ADD 30,552
coverage achieved double-digit volume growth of ~10-40% y/y, while DALBHARA
reported single digit volume growth of ~7% y/y due to erratic rainfall & loss of market UltraTech ADD 9,572
share in the east. In Q2FY24 management commentary, the company guided strong Note: Target and Recommendation as on Result date
demand outlook for the coming quarter post festive season. While states like Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh & Telangana will see some moderation in demand because of ongoing
elections. Aggregate NSR declined marginally by 1% y/y and flat sequential aided by
the price hike during the quarter. Management guided the pricing environment to
improve in the H2FY24 aided by robust demand from across segments.
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
19
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock coverage universe
Dixon Technologies
Ratings
NEUTRAL
TP
5458
AAKASH FADIA
Analyst
aakash.fadia@ysil.in
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
20
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks
FMCG
Company Rating TP
BRIT NEUTRAL 4,920
CLGT NEUTRAL 2,080
DABUR BUY 640
Gross margin QoQ improvement was the only GILL ADD 6,850
HUL ADD 2,855
saving grace in 2QFY24 ITC ADD 500
MRCO ADD 625
Q2FY24 topline of our FMCG universe grew by just 3.7% YoY, 0.4% lower than our NEST REDUCE 23,420
estimate. The 4-year revenue CAGR for FMCG universe stood at around 9.6%. For majority Note: Last updated target price and recommendation
of coverage companies’ volume growth was a disappointment. NEST, CLGT and BRIT were
a big miss on volumes vs our expectation. Pricing growth has further come-off this quarter
across companies, largely on expected lines, leading to subdued YoY revenue growth.
Aggregate EBITDA margin for FMCG coverage expanded by ~120bps YoY to 27.7%, in-line
with our estimate. Thus, aggregate EBITDA/APAT growth for our FMCG coverage stood at
8.5%/12.5% YoY, -0.4%/1.7% compared to our estimates. Apart from the sequential gross
margin improvement for the larger set, there was no major positive in 2QFY24. Companies
remain cautiously optimistic about rural recovery in 2H with factors in place. There was a
watchful tone on input basket inflation due to the recent volatility in key commodities.
Positive surprises in Q2FY24: BRIT and HUVR’s margin performance surprised us positively
this quarter largely due to softer commodity cost, thus there was a beat of ~10%/~4% on
EBITDA, respectively.
Negative surprises in Q2FY24: While NEST and CLGT disappointed on volume growth, ITC
and GILL’s margin came in lower than our estimates.
Rating changes during Q2FY24: Due to limited upside on Sept’25 EPS, we downgraded
NEST a notch to REDUCE rating. While on the other hand, post recent corrections, we have
upgraded DABUR to BUY and HUVR back to ADD rating, based on Sept’25 valuation.
Market context
Rural continues to remain sluggish: While indicators were showing an improving
trend, uneven distribution of rainfall and a deficient monsoon seems to have
impacted rural consumption in 2QFY24. Volume growth trend was thus impacted
even while urban was resilient. Moderating inflation, resilient urban demand, festive
season entirely in 3Q and lower base effect will be key factors for volume recovery
going ahead in 2H.
Trade ex-GT doing well: Modern channels like modern trade, e-commerce continues to
grow at a much faster clip and GT business is not doing so well.
South India lagging other markets: Rural market seems to be worst hit in South India
market impacted by credit in the market and uneven monsoons.
Regional players continue to put pressure: The market continued to witness higher
competitive intensity with resurgence of regional players in select categories and price
points. The smaller players are growing faster than the larger players in key categories.
Media intensity has thus gone up this quarter.
Price component just a small contributor now: Market price growth tailing off due to
anniversarization and incremental cuts taken to pass on soft commodity price, albeit
remains high on 3-year basis.
Q2FY24 performance:
Q2FY24 topline of our FMCG universe grew by just 3.7% YoY, 0.4% lower than our
estimate. The 4-year revenue CAGR for FMCG universe stood at around 9.6%. For
majority of coverage companies’ volume growth was a disappointment. NEST, CLGT
and BRIT were a big miss on volumes vs our expectation. Pricing growth has further
come-off this quarter across companies, largely on expected lines, leading to subdued
YoY revenue growth.
Operating performance during the quarter was saved by sifter commodity cost leading
to further improvement in gross margins profile. Aggregate EBITDA margin for FMCG VISHAL PUNMIYA
Lead Analyst
coverage expanded by ~120bps YoY to 27.7%, in-line with our estimate. Operating
margin expansion was slightly suppressed as media spends picks up. vishal.punmiya@ysil.in
Thus, aggregate EBITDA/APAT growth for our FMCG coverage stood at 8.5%/12.5%
YoY, -0.4%/1.7% compared to our estimates.
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
21
Q2FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks
TCS IN
Rating
ADD
TP
4,056
Weakness in near term demand environment: The long term demand environment
continues to remain robust led by new age technologies such as AI, Digital and cloud
migration. However, the slowdown in discretionary expenditure has led to moderation
in near term demand environment as there has been some increase in deal conversion
cycle with regard to new deals, thus impacting deal booking in near term and would
lead to slower revenue growth for FY24. The digital business now contributes more
than 50% of the revenue of top 10 IT companies.
FY24 to remain subdued with growth picking up from FY25: The execution engine
remains robust for them as they are well placed to drive operational efficiency in
coming quarters. The revenue growth would remain muted in FY24 with growth picking
up from FY25, led by expected improvement in TCV to revenue conversion. There are
signs of softness in verticals such as HiTech, Telecom, US BFSI etc. Segment-wise;
Manufacturing, Healthcare and Travel are expected to maintain robust growth
momentum.
Margin should broadly improve in FY24 YoY for most IT companies: Attrition has
started to come down for all IT companies and should support operating margin. Other
expenses such as Travel and Admin have started to come back as more employees
come to office. However, we estimate that the IT companies in general have sufficient
operating levers that will help them to report higher margin in FY24 vs FY23, led by
positive operating leverage, productivity measures, lower subcontracting cost and
improvement in employee pyramid structure.
Our Top picks in the Tier 1 IT space are Infosys and TCS; whereas, our top picks in the
Tier 2 IT space are LTIMindree and Coforge.
PIYUSH PANDEY
Lead Analyst
piyush.pandey@ysil.in
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22
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Life Insurance
APE was higher sequentially for SBI Life, Max Life, IPRU, LIC and HDFC Life by 72.6%,
48.5%, 41.1%, 37.4% and 30.8% respectively. The sequential growth was largely due
to seasonality in business where 1Q is a seasonally weak quarter. VNB margin for Max General Insurance
Life, LIC and HDFC Life was sequentially higher by 297bps, 163bps and 10bps, Company Rating TP
respectively whereas lower for IPRU and SBI Life by -200bps and -22bps respectively.
ICICIGI ADD 1550
Max Life and LIC calculates the VNB margin on actual cost basis due to which the first
Note: Latest updated Target and Recommendation
quarter margin is generally seasonally low. IPRU and SBI Life sequential deterioration
was driven by change in product mix with some shift from Par to ULIP due to strong
market conditions. Sequential VNB growth for SBI Life, Max Life, LIC, IPRU and HDFC
Life was 71.3%, 68.4%, 53.8%, 31.7% and 31.3% respectively. Asset Managers
For ICICIGI, our only coverage general insurer, loss ratio and underwriting Company Rating TP
loss both improved sequentially NAM ADD 460
UTI ADD 890
The net premium earned in 2QFY24 grew by 10.8%/12.2% QoQ/YoY. It was
HDFCAMC NEUTRAL 2900
sequentially driven higher by Fire, Crop and Miscellaneous segments. Crop insurance is
ABSL NEUTRAL 475
seasonal in nature and hence, there was a sharp increase QoQ. The motor segment net
earned premium grew 3.2% sequentially. The Health (incl. PA) segment net earned
premium grew by 4.9% sequentially and 29.5% on YoY basis. On the loss ratio front, CAMS BUY 3000
overall loss ratio improved by -340bps/-210ps QoQ/YoY to 70.7%. The sequential Note: Latest updated Targets and Recommendations
improvement was aided by the improvement in all segments except Health (incl PA).
Motor OD and Motor TP segment’s loss ratio sequentially improved by -290bps and -
1240bps respectively. Health (incl PA) segment loss ratios deteriorated QoQ by 360
Fintech
bps, to 82.3%. The underwriting loss for ICICIGI was at -Rs 1,460mn, lower (less
negative) by -54.3%/-4.1% QoQ/YoY. Company Rating TP
PAYTM ADD 1050
The QAAUM and operating profit grew sequentially for all coverage asset Note: Latest updated Target and Recommendation
managers
QAAUM in 2QFY24 grew sequentially for Nippon, HDFC AMC, UTI AMC and ABSL
AMC by 11.8%, 8.0%, 7.5% and 4.7% respectively. The calculated revenue yield for
HDFC AMC and ABSL AMC was higher QoQ by 2bps and 1bp respectively, whereas
flat for Nippon but down for UTI AMC by -2bps. The operating profit was higher QoQ
for Nippon, ABSL AMC, HDFC AMC and UTI AMC by 19.2%, 12.9%, 12.5% and 3.8%
respectively.
Among insurers, asset managers and fintech, we prefer select life insurers
over other segments SHIVAJI THAPLIYAL
In our coverage universe, among life insurers, general insurers, asset managers and Head of Research
& Lead Analyst
fintech, we most prefer select life insurers from a segmental standpoint. MAXF and
shivaji.thapliyal@ysil.in
SBIL are our top picks in the life insurance space.
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
23
Insurers, AMCs and Fintech
CAMS NA NA NA 2,751 5.3 13.5 1,221 11.0 15.1 838 10.7 16.2
Source: Company, YES Sec, Sorted on Market Capitalisation
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24
Q2Y24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks
TATA IN
Rating
ADD
TP
133
Low-cost raw material provides room for Note: Rating and Target as on Result
date/latest Report Release
margin expansion; however, global pricing still
under pressure
The performance in Q2FY24 in terms of revenue growth and operating margins were
majorly in-line with the consensus estimates mainly due to falling coking coal prices as
well as stable steel prices. On an average, the price differential on the coking coal costs
have been ~$50/t thereby providing the companies with a lot of breathing space amid
the low steel prices. Indian steel producers are also benefitting from the strong demand
in the country which has indeed helped sustain the Indian steel prices. The cause of
worry, however, is the cheaper imports coming in from China due to pricing differences.
The China re-opening has caused quite a disappointment whereas the global industry
was expecting to see a demand uptick. This has become one of the reasons where the
prices have been under pressure for quite some time. In addition to this, the Chinese
exports have not fallen as much as the domestic steel producers expected it to be. We
still have a positive outlook on the Indian Steel Sector in the long-run, however the
short term headwinds should be something to look out for by the steel producers.
Cheaper China imports and weak Chinese demand causing unfavorable macro-
environment for the steel producers: India has turned into a net importer of steel which
is slowly starting to become a cause of worry for the Indian steel producers. Weaker
demand in China and only a minor fall in the Chinese production and exports are
proving to be the biggest reasons behind the global steel prices being under pressure.
The Indian steel producers need to combat the cheaper Chinese imports and are
seeking government’s intervention in the same. We believe that the global prices have
now bottomed out and we can expect to see a rise in the global steel prices on account
of rising coking coal prices and with China playing a role in order to curb its steel exports
and production.
MANAV GOGIA
Research Analyst
manav.gogia@ysil.in
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25
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock universe recos
Pharmaceuticals Stock
Gland Pharma
Rating
ADD
TP
1,780
Ajanta Pharma – US surprised on the upside and with similar sales expectations, this
warrants an increase in FY24 US growth to 8-9% vs flat earlier. Broadly, there is not
much change to growth expectation while we push up margin by ~100bps in FY24
resulting in +7% change to FY24 EPS and no major change to FY25.
Gland Pharma – Raise target multiple to 28x (from 25x) earlier to factor in better
operating environment and some premium to generics whom we value at 20-25x on
FY25. Any reversal/volatility in US business is a key risk which is also the reason for
not upgrading the stock. Retain ADD
Indoco–margin may have too much to do in H2 within the constraints of remedial costs
and sustained R&D. Downgrade to ADD and no longer a preferred pick.
Alkem – raise FY24/25 estimates by 6-8% but as was our stance in Q1, margin beat is
driven by US and cost savings, none of which may be a sustainable feature in H2 and
FY25. Continue to factor in 11% domestic growth next fiscal which leads to north of
18% margin; any moderation in PenG price would be a trigger for better margin and is
a risk to our upgraded Reduce rating.
Syngene - . Reiterate our view about a strong franchise but valuation likely fully
capturing FY25 recovery; faster than expected 19% growth in FY25 can create upside
risk to our SELL view.
JB Chem – Continue with cautious stance and tactically going light as elevated earnings
expectation do not leave any room for disappointment; Q3 might see domestic growth
but base is weak and CDMO too could be tepid
Dr Reddys - Revlimid peak and higher R&D in H2 may offset some of the triggers
leaving margin in the same ballpark as what has been delivered in H1. Indeed, next fiscal
reckon DRL could be looking at lower OPM as peak Revlimid sales and associated
margin behind and unlikely to be offset by any other such large product.
Vijaya Diagnostics - Expectation of mid-teens growth remains intact. Continue to value
stock at 36x FY25 EPS as we tweak FY24/25 estimates by 3-5%. In lieu of run up since
Q1 results, lower rating to Neutral even as we continue to like the underlying franchise
Torrent Pharma - Raise domestic growth assumption by 150bps to 15% for the year
and also increase interest expenses on back of H1 reported numbers; albeit, this results
in a marginal ~1% change to FY25 EPS. Retain ADD with revised TP Rs2,070 and
believe Torrent offers modest upside with high degree of earnings certainty.
Alembic Pharma - While we retain US$240mn revenue for US in FY25, it does depend
on nature of general/onco injectable approvals (company has netted decent ophthalmic
BHAVESH GANDHI
approval like Combigan) over next 2-3 quarters. Retain ADD based on 22x PE Lead Analyst
Dr Lal - Raise FY24 and FY25 EPS by ~9-8% primarily due to better realization and bhavesh.gandhi@ysil.in
margin YTD. However, lack of confidence on full-fledged volume recovery continues
to keep us away from the stock; Reduce stays.
For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
26
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock universe recos
Resi, Retail & Hotel going strong; Office too on PEPL BUY 1000
SRIN BUY 500
revival path Note: Target and Recommendation as on Result date
Annuity Assets:
In office assets Non SEZ assets were receiving demand while physical occupancies
which was concern earlier, now look to be improving with back in office campaigns.
Physical occupancies are improving every sequential quarter and even rental rates are
improving too with the increased enquiries. Additionally, corporates who were averse
to plan human resourcing/space management in advance, now have started doing again
with the higher space per headcount (de-densification). So, with the de-densification
and strong hiring happened in covid times, corporates are expanding their base. Now
even SEZ’s are witnessing the green shoot of demand as floor wise denotification is
expected to happen and which will bring much required relief. We recon strong demand
for the office assets on the back of India’s economic viability, skilled
labour/professionals and favourable business landscape.
Hotel Assets:
ABHISHEK LODHIYA
Traditionally a weak quarter for the hospitality industry but sequentially witnessed Lead Analyst
increased occupancy for the hotels. Revenue per room has been lower sequentially abhishek.lodhiya@ysil.in
after a strong quarter. Leisure and business hotels are witnessing strong growth backed
+91 22 6885 0521
by domestic and international travel.
SONU UPADHYAY, Associate
We prefer OBER & Prestige Estates Projects as top pick.
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27
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks
The performance of SFBs, NBFCs and HFCs in Q2 FY24 can be CANF BUY 916
encapsulated as below: REPCO BUY 550
Q2 FY24 manifested steady momentum (adjusted for seasonal features) in HOMEFIRS BUY 1,100
disbursements and asset quality aided by resilient economic/consumption activity, AAVAS NEUTRAL 1,650
steadied income/cash flows of borrowers and focused efforts on execution, collections,
APTUS BUY 350
and resolutions. Fresh delinquency creation (X bucket CE better than pre-Covid) and
delinquency flow was under control across products, except for Credit Cards and low- BAF BUY 9,700
ticket PL. NPL/Stage-3 resolutions were healthy and loan write-offs were moderate in SHFL BUY 2,400
general. Barring a couple of companies (MMFS & SBI Cards), the credit cost was
CIFC ADD 1,270
moderate across our coverage universe. Product-wise NIM performance was varied in
a scenario of rising funding cost. Microfinance witnessed NIM expansion on further MMFS NEUTRAL 300
manifestation of higher lending rates. Affordable home financiers experienced spread MUTH BUY 1,520
contraction with benefits of PLR increases behind.
CREDAG BUY 1,825
Vehicle Finance
The quarter witnessed reasonably strong disbursements activity in products like
Cars/UVs financing, Used Vehicles financing and Construction Equipment
financing. Growth in MHCV and LCV/SCV financing remained relatively modest.
Some improvement was seen in Stage 2 & Stage 3 buckets across players after the
seasonal increase in Q1 FY24.
While write-offs were normal for Chola and Shriram Finance, it continued to be
elevated for MMFS and drove significant provisions and earnings disappointment
Chola and Shriram Finance continue to deliver growth ahead of expectations, while
disbursement growth of MMFS has plateaued in the early teens.
NIM was managed well by Chola and Shriram Finance, while the margin declined
more than expected for MMFS.
Affordable HFCs
Q2 FY24 was yet another quarter of strong disbursements and collections for
Affordable HFCs like Home First, Aptus & Aavas.
RAJIV MEHTA
Disbursement momentum was sustained at higher level by Home First, while it Lead Analyst
significantly accelerated for Aptus. Originations recovered, though lower than rajiv.mehta@ysil.in
estimated, for Aavas after the tech changes impacted business in Q1 FY24.
MANUJ OBEROI, Associate
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28
SFBs, NBFCs & HFCs
Core BT Out increased for Home First, while it was stable for Aavas and remained low for
Aptus.
Portfolio Spread contracted by 20-30 bps for Aavas and Home First, while it was stable for
Aptus
Strong collection trends drove improvement in early delinquency buckets and NPLs. Write-
offs remain non-meaningful.
Management commentary on growth, asset quality and RoE remained positive.
SHFL IN: Delivered a material PPOP beat with stronger-than-expected growth, a pleasantly
surprising margin expansion and improvement in portfolio quality.
SPANDANA IN: Display of better-than-expected growth execution and moderate core credit
cost.
EQUITASB IN: PAT beat aided by stable lending spread, stronger fee income, restrained
employee cost and lower credit cost (moderate net slippages even adj. for ARC sale).
UJJIVANS IN: Positives were stronger NII growth, sustained material bad debts recovery,
restrained opex growth and marginal credit cost.
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29
SFBs, NBFCs & HFCs
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30
Q2FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks
1,050
TCOM IN ADD 1,939
The telecom industry needs another round of tariff hike which along with 2G to 4G
migration would drive increase in ARPU going ahead. We expect significant tariff hike
only after the General election. Rising adoption of 5G would drive monetization
through higher data usage and telecom operators are offering unlimited 5G data with
their postpaid plans to drive prepaid to postpaid conversion.
PIYUSH PANDEY
Lead Analyst
piyush.pandey@ysil.in
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30
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
YES Securities (India) Limited Registration Nos.: CIN: U74992MH2013PLC240971 | SEBI Single
Registration No.: NSE, BSE, MCX & NCDEX : INZ000185632 | Member
Registered Address: 2nd Floor, North Side, YES BANK House, Code: BSE - 6538, NSE - 14914, MCX - 56355 & NCDEX - 1289 | CDSL &
Off Western Express Highway, Santacruz East, NSDL: IN-DP-653-2021 | MERCHANT BANKER: INM000012227 |
Mumbai - 400 055, Maharashtra, India. RESEARCH ANALYST: INH000002376 | INVESTMENT ADVISER:
Correspondence Address: 7th Floor, Urmi Estate, Tower A, Ganpatrao INA000007331 | Sponsor and Investment Manager to YSL Alternates
Kadam Marg, Opp. Peninsula Business Park, Lower Parel (West), Alpha Plus Fund (CAT III AIF) SEBI Registration No.: IN/AIF3/20-21/0818 |
Mumbai – 400 013, Maharashtra, India. AMFI ARN Code – 94338.
For important information about YES SECurities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
32
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review
Since YSL and its associates are engaged in various businesses in the
financial services industry, they may have financial interest or may have
ABOUT YES SECURITIES (INDIA) LIMITED
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or
brokerage services or for any other product or services of whatsoever YES Securities (India) Limited (‘‘YSL’’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of YES
nature from the subject company(ies) in the past twelve months or BANK LIMITED. YSL is a Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
associates of YSL may have managed or co-managed public offering of registered Stock broker holding membership of National Stock Exchange
securities in the past twelve months of the subject company(ies) whose (NSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange
securities are discussed herein. (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). YSL is
also a SEBI-registered Category I Merchant Banker, Investment Adviser
Associates of YSL may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
and Research Analyst. YSL is also a Sponsor and Investment Manager of
and/or other material conflict of interest in the securities discussed
Alternate Investment Fund - Category III (YSL Alternates) and AMFI
herein.
registered Mutual Fund Distributor. The Company is also a registered
Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. YSL offers, inter alia,
HEMANT Digitally signed by
HEMANT SUMATILAL trading/investment in equity and other financial products along with
SUMATILAL NAHATA
Date: 2023.11.12 22:50:47 various value added services. We hereby declare that there are no
NAHATA +05'30'
disciplinary actions taken against YSL by SEBI/Stock Exchanges.
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