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November 13, 2023

INDIA STRATEGY

Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

For the YES SEC universe, Q2 FY24 results were broadly in-line with estimates, with ~90% Best Result BUYs
of our coverage universe reporting better or in-line performance. Ex. OMC and Financials,
revenue grew by 11.4% y/y better than our estimate of 10.6%, while EBITDA margins Sector Stock
expanded by 221bps y/y, lower than our working of 250bps improvement. On PAT front
(for entire YES Sec Universe), the growth stood at 28% y/y, against our est. of 41%, primarily
due to earning miss in Telecom, Consumer Durables and Tata Steel. Auto Eicher Motors, M&M

Result Overview for 197 out of NSE 200


Banks Axis Bank
 Topline growth (ex-Fin & OMC) for Q2 FY24 stood at a mere 3.5% y/y, the second
consecutive quarter of tepid growth. (Exhibit 2) Building
Hindware, Greenply
 OPM improved by 427bps y/y, marking an expansion for the 2nd quarters after Materials
witnessing series of contraction
Capital Goods ABB, Voltamp
 Other income (ex-Fin & OMC) jumped by 28% y/y, as higher investment along with a
higher yield, boosted non-business income. Other income contribution to PBT stood at
~16.7% marginally lower when compared to 17.6% in Q1. Cements Ambuja, Dalmia Bharat
 Depreciation jumped 14.5% y/y as companies embarked on higher capex. Interest costs
increased by 21% y/y, impacted by interest rate hikes as well as higher capex and Blue star, Polycab,
Durables
working capital requirements. V-Guard

Britannia
Q2 FY24 NSE 200 Earnings snapshot FMCG
Hindustan Unilever
NSE 200 (INR bn) Sep-23 YoY % QoQ %
Revenues (ex-Financials & OMC) 17,365 3.5 2.1 Insurance Max Financial
EBITDA (ex-Financials & OMC) 3,400 32.4 4.3
Total PBT (ex-Financials & OMC) 2,200 38.8 0.3 Internet/
Bharti Airtel
Total PBT (incl. all stocks) 4,018 45.7 (0.3) Telecom
PBT – Sector wise
IT Coforge
Agro Chemicals 12.3 (55.0) 10.0
Auto / Auto Ancillaries 273.5 132.5 26.8
Bank 960.0 34.7 2.6 Metals Tata Steel, JSW Steel
Building Material 28.4 47.7 (16.2)
Cap Goods 96.6 25.1 27.4 Repco, Shriram Finance,
NBFC
Spandana
Cement 44.0 234.1 (18.5)
Chemicals 10.6 (30.5) (18.8) Ajanta Pharma, Gland
Pharma
Consumer Durables 0.8 532.1 (58.1) Pharma
Consumer Food 112.8 5.6 (4.2)
Arvind Smartspaces
Consumer Retail 24.4 4.3 7.6 Real Estate
Oberoi
Consumer Staples 54.3 15.5 6.5
Diversified 265.5 31.7 8.9
Energy 509.5 64.5 (9.7)
Entertainment 10.4 13.3 (7.7)
Healthcare 134.0 25.0 10.5
Infrastructure 60.0 115.8 21.9
Insurance 104.3 (54.8) (17.7)
IT Services 371.7 2.8 1.1
Logistics 9.7 LP (73.7)
Metals and Mining 215.3 28.8 (16.4)
NBFC 378.6 42.3 9.9
New Age / E-Comm 1.9 LP LP
Non-Lending Financials 5.9 19.5 3.1
OMC 369.1 LP (13.1)
Telecom Services (39.8) LL LL
Textiles 4.1 (32.9) (14.6)
Source: YES Sec, note: PL - profit to loss, LP – loss to profit, LL – loss to loss Note: Assessment based on 197 results out of NSE
200 Companies. Note: PBT includes exceptional gains & losses

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

1
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Q2 FY24 EARNINGS FOR NSE 200 COMPANIES


Topline (Ex Fin & OMC) grew by 3.5% y/y marking the second consecutive quarter of tepid growth
YoY %
Revenue Growth (Ex. Financials & OMC)
42.3

32.5
28.0 28.2
24.8

16.7

10.5

3.0 3.5

Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22 Q4 FY22 Q1 FY23 Q2 FY23 Q3 FY23 Q4 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q2 FY24


Source - Company, YES Sec

OPM improves y/y basis for 2nd consecutive quarter as base turns favourable
% EBITDA Margin (Ex. Financials & OMC) YoY EBITDA Margin bps change (Ex. Financials &
OMC) 427
20.2
19.8 19.6
19.4 19.2
149
18.1
17.7 17.6

15.3 (120) (127)


(181) (156) (218)
(365)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (494)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24

Source: YES Sec

Earnings growth Ex. Financial and OMC better indicating higher growth rate returning back for other
sectors
YoY % PBT Growth (Ex. OMCs) YoY % PBT Growth (Ex. Financials &
OMCs)
52 62

39
36
31 30
29 30 23 22
26
13

9
6 5
(7) (6)
(16)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24
Source: YES Sec

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

2
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Other income zooms 28% y/y on back of higher investments and interest rates, now accounts for 16.7%
of total PBT
YoY %
Other Income Growth (Ex. Financials & OMC) Other Income as a % of PBT (Ex. Financials &
73.8 OMC)
18.0
17.6
16.7
16.2

14.3
28.2 13.7 13.8

14.4 11.6 11.4


9.8 11.4 10.6
7.1
3.6

(5.5)
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24
Source: YES Sec

Higher PBIT offset surge in interest cost translate into a flattish sequential number for interest coverage
ratio. Depreciation/sales inch higher as sales growth rate moderates to 3.5% y/y, while depreciation grows at 14.5%
x % Depreciation / Sales Ratio (Ex. Financials &
Interest Coverage Ratio (Ex. Financials &
OMC) OMC)
6.3 6.0

5.8
5.6 5.6
5.6
5.5
5.2 5.2 5.4
5.0 5.3
5.3
4.8 5.2
4.5
5.0
5.0

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24 FY22 FY22 FY22 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY23 FY24 FY24
Source: YES Sec

PAT growth still among the best seen in past eight quarters. To our surprise,
this time the earnings basket has been widespread
NSE 200 PAT y/y growth

61

44
40

28
22 22
17

(3)
Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22 Q4 FY22 Q1 FY23 Q2 FY23 Q3 FY23 Q4 FY23 Q1 FY24 Q2 FY24
Source - Company, YES Sec

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

3
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

OMC witness upgrade, while downgrades are evident in a chemical & IT space
NSE200 - Top 10 Consensus EPS Upgrade NSE200 - Top 10 Consensus EPS Downgrade
IOC 51% -37% FLUOROCHEM

ADANIGREEN 31% -33% TATASTEEL

HINDPETRO 30% -30% LAURUSLABS

POONAWAL… 28% -25% AWL

BPCL 24% -24% TECHM

TRENT 14% -22% UPL

MRF 11% -20% SRF

PRESTIGE 11% -19% YESBANK

PFC 10% -18% BHEL

LUPIN 10% -16% NAVINFLUOR

Source: Bloomberg, YES Sec

Nifty 50, FY24 EPS remains flat in last four months, however, the expectation of EPS growth of 17.2% for
FY24 remains intact

Nifty - FY24 EPS movement Nifty EPS Growth (YoY %)


999 37.7
996 994

984
982 982 17.2
978 13.8 14.2
10.3 10.9
972 7.6 6.4
Jun-23

Sep-23
Jul-23

Oct-23
Apr-23

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

(6.2)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
Source: Bloomberg, YES Sec

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

4
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Q2 FY24 EARNING OF YES SEC COVERAGE UNIVERSE

Topline numbers for 90.5% of YES Sec universe stood largely in line or above our estimates. This
impacted EBITDA and PAT numbers positively
Revenue / NII Estimates EBITDA / PPOP Estimates PAT Estimates

9.5%
Inline 17.9% Inline Inline
6.0% 22.6%

Above Above Above


16.1% 52.4%

Below 66.1% Below 25.0% Below


84.5%

Source: YES Sec

For the YES Sec universe (Ex. OMCs & Fin), Revenue growth at 11.6% y/y was marginally better than
our estimate. Even though EBITDA improved by 221bps; it was a miss when compared to our estimate of 251bps
expansion. This had a drag on earnings too, wherein the adjusted PAT grew 28% as against our estimate of 48%.

YES Sec Universe - Revenue y/y Growth (Ex. YES Sec Universe - OPM y/y bps chng (Ex.
Financials) Financials)
53
441 391 397
240 221 251
80 58
25 24
21 19
14 15 15 13 14 (114)
11 11 11 (205)
(298) (255)
2 (474)(529)
Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Sep-23e

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Sep-23e
Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

YES Sec Universe - Adj PAT y/y Growth (Ex. YES Sec Universe - Adj PAT y/y Growth
Financials) 225
48
36
31 28

109
4 7
3
75
44 46 39
33 27
(8) (7) 19 17 17 10 17
5
(23)
Sep-23e
Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23
Sep-23e
Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Source: YES Sec

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

5
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

For Financial companies under YES Sec coverage, NII growth stood at 20% marginally lower than our
estimates. PPOP registered a jump of 18% y/y as against our estimates of 28%, this impacted Bottomline (PAT)
which grew at 28% y/y as against our estimates of 34%

YES Sec Universe - NII y/y Growth (Banks & YES Sec Universe - PPOP y/y Growth (Banks
NBFC) & NBFC)
44
30
26 26 29 28 28
22 23
20 18
19 17 15 17 17
16 17
14 9 8 7
14
11 11 3
9

(3)
Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Sep-23e

Sep-23e
Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23
YES Sec Universe - Adj PAT y/y Growth
(Banks & NBFC)
121

64 60
54 58
46 47 44
36 32 34
28
15 21
Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Sep-23e
Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Source: YES Sec

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

6
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

YES Sec Coverage Universe – Estimates v/s Actuals…


Revenue/ NII EBITDA/PPOP Adjusted PAT
INR mn Deviation Estimate Deviation Estimate Deviatio
Estimates Actuals Actuals Actuals
(%) s (%) s n (%)
Cement x
ACC 44,403 44,347 -0.1% 5,845 5,493 -6.0% 3,319 3,879 16.9%
AMBUJACEM 41,152 39,698 -3.5% 7,704 7,734 0.4% 5,125 6,438 25.6%
BIRLACORPN 21,622 22,858 5.7% 2,844 2,889 1.6% 633 586 -7.4%
DALBHARAT 33,382 31,490 -5.7% 5,510 5,890 6.9% 1,005 1,190 18.4%
INDIACEM 12,765 12,644 -0.9% 177 44 -75.1% (646) (855) LL
RAMCOCEM 19,947 23,406 17.3% 3,127 4,056 29.7% 564 720 27.7%
SAGCEM 6,108 5,868 -3.9% 354 602 69.9% (418) (232) LL
SHREECEM 43,817 45,846 4.6% 7,904 8,701 10.1% 3,926 4,913 25.2%
ULTRACEMCO 155,704 160,121 2.8% 26,685 25,509 -4.4% 13,079 12,815 -2.0%
JKLAKSHMI 13,735 14,526 5.8% 1,689 1,785 5.7% 743 830 11.7%
ORIENTCEM 7,421 7,206 -2.9% 895 865 -3.3% 308 246 -20.1%
Real Estate
ARVSMART 1,040 727 -30.1% 605 339 -44.1% 129 86 -33.3%
DLF 17,662 13,477 -23.7% 5,491 4,624 -15.8% 7,430 6,228 -16.2%
OBEROIRLTY 10,298 12,174 18.2% 6,120 6,382 4.3% 4,241 4,568 7.7%
PRESTIGE 19,519 22,364 14.6% 4,776 5,925 24.1% 1,739 8,509 389.3%
SUNTECK 1,584 249 -84.3% 632 (141) PL 364 (139) PL
Building materials
APOLLOPIPE 2,603 2,495 -4.2% 283 241 -14.7% 160 129 -19.1%
ASTRAL 13,761 13,630 -1.0% 2,274 2,201 -3.2% 1,406 1,312 -6.7%
CARYSIL 1,701 1,636 -3.8% 318 329 3.7% 160 155 -3.3%
CENTURYPLY 8,930 9,968 11.6% 1,421 1,443 1.6% 938 969 3.3%
CERA 4,492 4,637 3.2% 741 765 3.2% 598 581 -2.9%
FINPIPE 8,644 8,832 2.2% 1,325 1,030 -22.3% 1,027 980 -4.6%
GREENLAM 5,563 6,036 8.5% 702 756 7.7% 372 415 11.7%
GREENPANEL 4,061 3,987 -1.8% 755 691 -8.5% 448 410 -8.5%
HINDWAREAP 7,043 7,004 -0.6% 774 719 -7.2% 277 197 -28.9%
GREENPLY 5,183 6,077 17.3% 269 513 90.3% 16 139 792.8%
KAJARIACER 11,040 11,216 1.6% 1,766 1,797 1.7% 1,126 1,080 -4.1%
PRINCEPIPE 6,423 6,565 2.2% 680 942 38.6% 361 570 57.7%
SOMANYCERA 6,232 6,552 5.1% 592 641 8.3% 252 293 16.2%
STYLAMIND 2,447 2,339 -4.4% 440 473 7.3% 291 317 9.2%
SUPREMEIND 22,374 23,087 3.2% 3,016 3,565 18.2% 1,815 2,600 43.2%
FMCG
BRITANNIA 45,109 44,329 -1.7% 7,894 8,724 10.5% 5,434 5,876 8.1%
COLPAL 15,129 14,711 -2.8% 4,837 4,821 -0.3% 3,367 3,401 1.0%
DABUR 32,409 32,038 -1.1% 6,547 6,609 0.9% 5,138 5,151 0.2%
GILLETTE 6,671 6,676 0.1% 1,428 1,367 -4.2% 907 927 2.2%
HINDUNILVR 152,717 152,760 0.0% 35,583 36,940 3.8% 25,368 26,680 5.2%
ITC 164,289 165,501 0.7% 63,251 60,416 -4.5% 49,496 49,270 -0.5%
MARICO 24,843 24,760 -0.3% 4,844 4,970 2.6% 3,402 3,530 3.8%
NESTLEIND 51,859 50,368 -2.9% 12,342 12,287 -0.4% 8,305 8,332 0.3%
AMC
ABSLAMC 3,309 3,350 1.2% 1,807 1,919 6.2% 1,605 1,781 11.0%
CAMS 2,784 2,751 -1.2% 1,183 1,221 3.2% 835 838 0.3%
HDFCAMC 6,295 6,431 2.2% 4,722 4,822 2.1% 4,040 4,376 8.3%
NAM-INDIA 3,959 3,975 0.4% 2,277 2,414 6.0% 2,062 2,444 18.5%
UTIAMC 3,061 2,916 -4.7% 1,243 1,191 -4.2% 1,266 1,828 44.4%
General Insurance

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

7
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Revenue/ NII EBITDA/PPOP Adjusted PAT


INR mn Deviation Estimate Deviation Estimate Deviatio
Estimates Actuals Actuals Actuals
(%) s (%) s n (%)
ICICIGI 41,200 43,061 4.5% (2,678) (1,460) LL 4,944 5,773 16.8%
Life Insurance
HDFCLIFE 71,686 71,013 -0.9% 29,936 30,450 1.7% 7,933 8,010 1.0%
ICICIPRULI 47,269 45,342 -4.1% 21,271 20,620 -3.1% 6,488 5,770 -11.1%
LICI 452,133 478,342 5.8% 115,591 130,950 13.3% 15,605 20,020 28.3%
MFSL 23,994 24,240 1.0% 16,570 16,530 -0.2% 4,308 4,160 -3.4%
SBILIFE 97,942 100,547 2.7% 50,542 52,300 3.5% 14,657 14,900 1.7%
Fintech
PAYTM 26,811 25,186 -6.1% (1,766) (2,310) LL (2,180) (2,926) LL
Banks
AXISBANK 123,691 123,146 -0.4% 91,401 86,319 -5.6% 60,538 58,636 -3.1%
BANKBARODA 112,488 108,307 -3.7% 80,137 80,197 0.1% 45,103 42,529 -5.7%
CSBBANK 3,822 3,437 -10.1% 1,938 1,746 -9.9% 1,375 1,332 -3.2%
CUB 5,267 5,384 2.2% 4,183 3,866 -7.6% 2,200 2,806 27.6%
DCBBANK 4,857 4,757 -2.1% 2,150 2,105 -2.1% 1,272 1,268 -0.3%
FEDERALBNK 20,049 20,564 2.6% 13,708 13,245 -3.4% 9,057 9,538 5.3%
159,76
HDFCBANK 295,525 273,852 -7.3% 247,375 226,939 -8.3% 162,925 -1.9%
1
102,61
ICICIBANK 189,711 183,079 -3.5% 146,719 142,293 -3.0% 100,203 2.4%
0
IDFCFIRSTB 39,168 39,502 0.9% 15,780 15,103 -4.3% 8,064 7,513 -6.8%
INDIANB 58,379 57,402 -1.7% 42,384 43,027 1.5% 18,288 19,878 8.7%
INDUSINDBK 50,861 50,767 -0.2% 40,294 38,809 -3.7% 21,912 21,815 -0.4%
KOTAKBANK 64,929 62,966 -3.0% 51,708 46,101 -10.8% 36,150 31,910 -11.7%
RBLBANK 14,719 14,750 0.2% 6,735 7,310 8.5% 2,820 2,941 4.3%
143,30
SBIN 397,867 395,000 -0.7% 258,988 194,166 -25.0% 169,451 -15.4%
0
SFBs and NBFCs
AAVAS 2,880 2,931 1.7% 1,570 1,631 3.9% 1,193 1,217 2.0%
APTUS 2,395 2,374 -0.9% 2,014 1,951 -3.1% 1,497 1,480 -1.1%
AUBANK 13,171 12,490 -5.2% 5,953 6,477 8.8% 4,022 4,018 -0.1%
BAJFINANCE 90,025 88,412 -1.8% 59,772 58,348 -2.4% 36,306 35,508 -2.2%
CANFINHOME 2,955 3,226 9.2% 2,506 2,702 7.8% 1,584 1,581 -0.2%
CHOLAFIN 21,112 22,298 5.6% 13,478 14,206 5.4% 7,803 7,625 -2.3%
CREDITACC 8,027 8,231 2.5% 5,532 5,626 1.7% 3,438 3,420 -0.5%
EQUITASBNK 7,631 7,656 0.3% 3,146 3,302 4.9% 1,834 1,981 8.1%
FUSION 3,630 3,556 -2.0% 2,434 2,418 -0.7% 1,255 1,257 0.2%
HOMEFIRST 1,417 1,507 6.3% 971 1,044 7.6% 705 743 5.4%
LICHSGFIN 22,012 21,528 -2.2% 19,440 18,993 -2.3% 12,574 11,881 -5.5%
M&MFIN 17,315 16,455 -5.0% 10,573 9,428 -10.8% 5,214 2,352 -54.9%
MUTHOOTFIN 23,182 22,711 -2.0% 16,114 15,514 -3.7% 11,230 10,953 -2.5%
REPCOHOME 1,640 1,727 5.3% 1,268 1,338 5.5% 892 981 10.0%
SBICARD 35,240 34,825 -1.2% 15,584 15,509 -0.5% 6,069 6,030 -0.6%
SHRIRAMFIN 46,738 49,336 5.6% 32,308 34,808 7.7% 17,262 17,508 1.4%
SPANDANA 3,222 3,614 12.2% 1,982 2,421 22.1% 1,110 1,163 4.8%
UJJIVANSFB 8,300 8,233 -0.8% 4,496 4,834 7.5% 3,043 3,277 7.7%
Credit Rating Agency
CARERATING 954 964 1.1% 449 419 -6.6% 390 352 -9.8%
CRISIL 7,854 7,359 -6.3% 1,941 1,917 -1.2% 1,424 1,520 6.8%
ICRA 1,102 1,049 -4.9% 394 341 -13.6% 409 318 -22.3%
Consumer Durables
AMBER 10,110 9,271 -8.3% 553 596 7.8% (117) (70) LL
BAJAJELEC 12,993 11,128 -14.4% 986 567 -42.5% 577 317 -45.1%

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

8
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Revenue/ NII EBITDA/PPOP Adjusted PAT


INR mn Deviation Estimate Deviation Estimate Deviatio
Estimates Actuals Actuals Actuals
(%) s (%) s n (%)
BLUESTARCO 19,293 18,904 -2.0% 1,070 1,227 14.6% 540 707 30.8%
CROMPTON 18,983 17,823 -6.1% 1,933 1,745 -9.7% 1,240 1,009 -18.6%
DIXON 47,520 49,432 4.0% 1,951 1,989 1.9% 1,097 1,084 -1.2%
HAVELLS 44,164 38,912 -11.9% 4,040 3,735 -7.6% 2,746 2,491 -9.3%
IFBIND 13,331 11,009 -17.4% 700 704 0.6% 255 215 -15.6%
JCHAC 4,153 2,802 -32.5% (297) (436) LL (457) (444) LL
ORIENTELEC 6,569 5,669 -13.7% 447 207 -53.8% 211 37 -82.4%
POLYCAB 40,767 42,177 3.5% 5,630 6,089 8.2% 3,951 4,256 7.7%
STOVEKRAFT 4,820 3,798 -21.2% 564 400 -29.2% 308 165 -46.3%
SYMPHONY 3,022 2,750 -9.0% 517 410 -20.7% 424 350 -17.5%
TTKPRESTIG 8,811 6,837 -22.4% 1,338 829 -38.1% 953 622 -34.7%
VGUARD 11,367 11,338 -0.3% 996 925 -7.2% 548 590 7.5%
VOLTAS 23,111 22,928 -0.8% 1,254 703 -44.0% 1,010 367 -63.7%
WHIRLPOOL 17,063 15,216 -10.8% 1,132 732 -35.4% 687 366 -46.7%
Pharma
AJANTPHARM 10,772 10,284 -4.5% 2,830 2,907 2.7% 2,183 1,953 -10.5%
ALKEM 33,257 34,402 3.4% 5,854 7,467 27.6% 4,543 6,640 46.2%
APLLTD 15,762 15,949 1.2% 2,364 2,083 -11.9% 1,327 1,366 2.9%
AUROPHARMA 68,842 72,194 4.9% 12,160 13,734 12.9% 6,758 7,572 12.0%
DRREDDY 68,425 69,026 0.9% 21,197 20,083 -5.3% 14,252 14,822 4.0%
GLAND 12,464 13,734 10.2% 2,871 3,241 12.9% 1,868 1,941 3.9%
INDOCO 4,443 4,817 8.4% 720 714 -0.9% 330 351 6.3%
IPCALAB 16,719 20,340 21.7% 3,037 3,213 5.8% 1,772 1,451 -18.2%
JBCHEPHARM 9,053 8,817 -2.6% 2,506 2,435 -2.8% 1,483 1,506 1.5%
LALPATHLAB 5,765 6,013 4.3% 1,470 1,778 20.9% 796 1,093 37.4%
LUPIN 48,672 50,386 3.5% 7,520 9,178 22.0% 3,488 4,897 40.4%
METROPOLIS 3,089 3,085 -0.1% 735 748 1.8% 355 355 -0.2%
SEQUENT 3,465 3,460 -0.2% 143 151 5.6% (96) 12 LP
SYNGENE 9,140 9,101 -0.4% 2,746 2,541 -7.5% 1,237 1,222 -1.2%
TORNTPHARM 26,390 26,600 0.8% 8,142 8,250 1.3% 3,759 3,860 2.7%
VIJAYA 1,377 1,389 0.9% 585 574 -1.9% 339 333 -1.8%
IT Companies
COFORGE 23,210 22,762 -1.9% 3,985 3,409 -14.5% 2,378 1,810 -23.9%
EMUDHRA 861 963 11.8% 259 283 9.0% 178 184 3.0%
HAPPSTMNDS 4,026 4,066 1.0% 934 826 -11.6% 645 585 -9.4%
HCLTECH 269,835 266,720 -1.2% 58,019 59,290 2.2% 37,483 38,320 2.2%
INFY 385,504 389,940 1.2% 92,334 94,400 2.2% 61,997 62,120 0.2%
LTIM 89,361 89,054 -0.3% 15,459 16,313 5.5% 11,028 11,618 5.4%
LTTS 23,564 23,865 1.3% 4,627 4,756 2.8% 3,058 3,154 3.2%
MPHASIS 33,424 32,765 -2.0% 5,883 5,956 1.3% 4,041 3,920 -3.0%
113,42
TCS 602,152 596,920 -0.9% 161,979 157,460 -2.8% 115,693 -2.0%
0
TECHM 131,693 128,639 -2.3% 15,803 9,228 -41.6% 9,091 4,939 -45.7%
WIPRO 226,966 225,159 -0.8% 42,881 39,727 -7.4% 28,232 26,463 -6.3%
Telecom and
Internet/Platform
BHARTIARTL 386,624 370,438 -4.2% 202,580 195,137 -3.7% 45,217 21,750 -51.9%
IDEA 107,809 107,163 -0.6% 43,052 42,828 -0.5% (65,533) (87,379) LL
INDIAMART 2,969 2,947 -0.8% 844 800 -5.3% 895 694 -22.4%
INDUSTOWER 71,736 71,325 -0.6% 36,119 34,215 -5.3% 14,305 12,947 -9.5%
NAUKRI 6,005 5,930 -1.2% 2,348 2,411 2.7% 2,003 2,125 6.1%
NAZARA 3,133 2,972 -5.1% 383 267 -30.3% 195 181 -6.8%
SIS 31,152 30,736 -1.3% 1,486 1,445 -2.8% 978 753 -23.1%

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

9
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Revenue/ NII EBITDA/PPOP Adjusted PAT


INR mn Deviation Estimate Deviation Estimate Deviatio
Estimates Actuals Actuals Actuals
(%) s (%) s n (%)
STLTECH 16,624 14,940 -10.1% 2,494 2,130 -14.6% 806 280 -65.3%
TANLA 9,996 10,086 0.9% 1,886 1,968 4.4% 1,396 1,426 2.1%
TATACOMM 48,936 48,725 -0.4% 10,766 10,155 -5.7% 3,866 2,207 -42.9%
Auto
ASHOKLEY 101,238 96,380 -4.8% 11,006 10,798 -1.9% 6,199 5,758 -7.1%
BAJAJ-AUTO 111,050 107,773 -3.0% 22,313 21,329 -4.4% 18,839 18,361 -2.5%
BHARATFORG 21,460 22,494 4.8% 5,566 6,068 9.0% 3,117 3,475 11.5%
CEATLTD 29,430 30,533 3.7% 3,923 4,561 16.3% 1,481 2,080 40.4%
EICHERMOT 39,489 41,145 4.2% 9,577 10,872 13.5% 8,961 10,163 13.4%
ENDURANCE 25,828 25,450 -1.5% 3,333 3,183 -4.5% 1,747 1,546 -11.5%
ESCORTS 21,452 20,462 -4.6% 3,021 2,633 -12.9% 2,679 2,350 -12.3%
EXIDEIND 40,164 41,067 2.2% 4,508 4,831 7.2% 2,576 2,870 11.4%
HEROMOTOCO 95,491 94,454 -1.1% 13,956 13,283 -4.8% 10,765 10,538 -2.1%
M&M 255,546 243,099 -4.9% 34,747 30,660 -11.8% 26,945 34,519 28.1%
MARUTI 379,837 370,621 -2.4% 39,274 47,842 21.8% 31,359 37,165 18.5%
MOTHERSON 239,216 234,738 -1.9% 21,441 18,888 -11.9% 7,645 3,102 -59.4%
SONACOMS 7,680 7,875 2.5% 2,077 2,200 5.9% 1,187 1,283 8.1%
1,051,28
TATAMOTORS 1,017,057 3.4% 140,549 137,669 -2.0% 43,639 38,422 -12.0%
2
TVSMOTOR 82,572 81,446 -1.4% 9,331 8,998 -3.6% 5,618 5,366 -4.5%
Capital Goods
ABB 25,361 27,692 9.2% 3,385 4,385 29.5% 2,872 3,620 26.0%
APARINDS 36,601 39,260 7.3% 2,805 3,498 24.7% 1,446 1,739 20.3%
BEL 45,396 39,933 -12.0% 9,568 10,044 5.0% 7,090 8,123 14.6%
CUMMINSIND 19,754 18,997 -3.8% 2,890 3,386 17.2% 2,730 3,285 20.3%
ENGINERSIN 9,117 7,772 -14.7% 845 952 12.6% 1,128 1,022 -9.4%
GET&D 7,626 6,978 -8.5% 404 606 49.9% 163 372 127.5%
KEC 47,120 44,990 -4.5% 2,930 2,743 -6.4% 967 558 -42.3%
LT 492,745 510,240 3.6% 56,212 56,320 0.2% 36,929 38,556 4.4%
THERMAX 23,422 23,025 -1.7% 2,079 2,046 -1.6% 1,420 1,577 11.0%
TRITURBINE 4,330 3,878 -10.4% 856 744 -13.1% 689 642 -6.8%
VOLTAMP 4,050 3,814 -5.8% 646 688 6.5% 594 684 15.2%
Metals
JSWSTEEL 421,600 445,840 5.7% 69,986 78,860 12.7% 27,608 27,730 0.4%
SAIL 242,250 297,120 22.7% 20,622 38,754 87.9% 2,590 13,060 404.2%
TATASTEEL 562,670 556,819 -1.0% 67,596 42,678 -36.9% 13,832 (65,112) PL
Source: YES Sec
Notes:
1. For GI companies we have taken NEP in place of revenues, underwriting profit in place of EBIDTA
2. For LI companies we have taken NBP in place of revenues, APE in place of EBIDTA and VNB in place of PAT
3. For Max Financials preview is for its subsidiary Max Life Insurance, NBP is based on IRDAI data
4. Fors Financials NII and PPoP used instead of revenue and EBITDA
5. PL - profit to loss, LP – loss to profit, LL – loss to loss

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

10
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

Sector wise Hits & Misses


Sector Revenue/ NII EBITDA/PPOP Adjusted PAT

AMC Inline Inline Above

Auto Inline Inline Inline

Banks Inline Below Inline

Building materials Inline Inline Inline

Capital Goods Inline Inline Inline

Cement Inline Inline Above

Consumer Durables Inline Below Below

Credit Rating Agency Inline Inline Inline

Fintech Inline Above Below

FMCG Inline Inline Inline

General Insurance Inline Below Above

IT Companies Inline Inline Inline

Life Insurance Inline Inline Inline

Metals Inline Inline Below

Pharma Inline Inline Above

Real Estate Inline Inline Above

SFBs and NBFCs Inline Inline Inline

Telecom and Internet/Platform Inline Inline Below

For important information about Yes Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

11
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock coverage universe

Automobile Stock
Ashok Leyland
Rating
ADD
TP
200

Bajaj Auto ADD 5,852

Aggregate coverage margins back at FY19 levels Bharat Forge BUY 1,295

CEAT NEUTRAL 2,344

EBITDA for coverage (including TTMT) in-line to estimates Eicher Motors BUY 4,116

Endurance BUY 1,909


2QFY24 results for our OEM coverage universe were in-line as revenues grew ~15.8%
YoY (+8.8% QoQ) at Rs1053b (ex JLR). This was led by combination of volume (channel Escorts NEUTRAL 2,995
inventory, new product launches and improved supply) and ASP growth (led by price
Exide Industries BUY 325
hikes, favorable mix and currency benefits due to INR depreciation). RM/sales (ex-
TTMT) contracted for the consecutive fifth quarter by ~90bp QoQ (-240bp YoY) to Hero MotoCorp ADD 3,563
71.4% while led by operating leverage and fixed cost control, fixed cost/sales declined ADD 1,753
Mahindra & Mahindra
by ~20bp YoY (-20bp QoQ) at 14.7%. This led to EBITDA margins expanding by ~270bp
YoY (+120bp QoQ) at 13.9% for OEM coverage universe (ex TTMT) and by 50bp QoQ Maruti Suzuki ADD 12,153
(+390bp YoY) at 13.5% (including TTMT). Going forward, given stable RM basket (ex of BUY 114
MOTHERSON
lead), RM is expected to remain flattish to marginal positive (as price hike impact to
come through for full quarter) in 3QFY24E. Tata Motors BUY 773

TVS Motors ADD 1,838


Demand outlook steady to positive across segments
Sona BLW ADD 590
The demand outlook across segments remained steady to positive for rest of FY24E.
The festive demand has seen an upsurge across segments the growth have been largely Note: Target and recommendation as of last update

in-line as for 2W/PV the growth would likely be at ~15-18%/7-9% (for Navratri like to
like). However, key volumes influencing factors ahead would be 1) impending rural
recovery (especially entry segments which is under pressure), 2) new products launch
(especially in PV and 2Ws) and 3) government spends ahead of elections on infra and
agri sectors (CV and tractors). We expect 2Ws industry to grow ~9-10% YoY, PV/CV
at 7-10% YoY and tractors at 0-2% YoY for FY24E. We do not anticipate material
surprises (on either side), to play out in near-term.

Inventory higher than normal in PVs, comfortable for 2Ws


As indicated in our channel check note, the festive inventory remained higher than
normal for PV segment at 6-8 weeks (v/s 4-6 weeks normal) while the same for 2Ws
remain at a normalized level of 4-6.5 weeks (vs historical trend). This is led by festive
inventory push as sharp ramp-up in retails is expected for Diwali festive both for PVs
and 2Ws. We see risk of heightened discounting especially in PVs, given inventory for
entry level segment (impacted due to various macro challenges such as sharp increase
in TCO). However, so-far the blended discount at MSIL continues to be under control
led by higher share of SUVs where demand is not an challenge.

Key margins surprise – OEMs largely in-line, Ancs surprised positively


Positive – MSIL, EIM, BHFC, CEAT
In-line – BJAUT, TVSL, TTMT,
Negative – HMCL, ESCORTS, MM, EDNU, MOTHERSON

Top Picks– TTMT, AL, TVSL, MSIL top OEMs picks; Prefer BHFC, EXID,
Motherson, ENDU in Ancs
We prefer, 4Ws over 2Ws on strong demand and a stable competitive environment.
We expect the CV cycle to gather further momentum in FY24 TTMT, AL, MSIL, EIM,
TVSL are our preferred picks among OEMs while we like BHFC, MOTHERSON, and
ENDU among ancs.

DEEP SHAH
Lead Analyst
deep.shah@ysil.in

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
12
Automobile

Exhibit 1: Aggregate EBITDA margins (incl TTMT) expanded ~50bp QoQ at 13.5%

Aggregate (excl TTMT) Aggregate (incl TTMT)

16 14.3
14
13.4 13.0 13.5
11.8 12.1 12.3
14.6 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.5
12 10.8 13.5 13.4 14.0
9.8 12.7 12.6 12.9 9.9 9.7 12.7
10
12.4 8.8 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.6
11.3 8.4 8.2 11.3 11.3
7.2 10.4 7.6
10.3
8 9.7
9.1
6
4
1.2
2
0
(2) -0.2
2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24
Source: Company, YES Sec

Exhibit 2: Margins expanded for 2Ws while contracted for PVs and CVs

2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24


18
15.4
16 14.6 14.9
14.1
13.3
14 12.8
11.1 11.3 11.0 11.5 11.6
12
10.2 9.9
9.6
10
8
6.0
6
4
2
0
2W PVs CVs

Source: Company, YES Sec

Exhibit 3: Aggregate RM/sales declined QoQ by 90bp at 71.4%

Agg RM cost (%)


74.1 74.4
75 73.7 73.6 73.9
74 73.0 72.6
72.4 72.5
73 72.0
71.4
72 70.9
71 70.2 70.1 69.9
69.3 69.5
70 68.8 69.1
68.4 68.4 68.2
69
68
67
66
65
1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22

4QFY22

1QFY23

2QFY23

3QFY23

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

Source: Company, YES Sec

DISCLAIMER jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose


possession this document may come are required to inform themselves
Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the
of and to observe such restriction.
related documents carefully before investing.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
13
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks

Banks Company

BOB
Rating

BUY
TP

290

Most banks see margin compression but core fee AXSB BUY 1400

income and loan growth remains healthy SBIN BUY 760


INBK BUY 545
Gross slippages were on the lower side for SBI, FED and CSB whereas ICICIBC BUY 1225
they were elevated for DCB, IDFCFB and RBL
FED BUY 195
Annualised slippage ratio in 2QFY24 was elevated for DCB, IDFCFB and RBL at 4.3%,
3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. For DCB, most of the slippages emerged from the HDFCB BUY 1925
restructured book and were mainly of mortgage customers who have just come out of CSBBANK BUY 440
moratorium. Annualised slippage ratio was also somewhat high for CUB, BOB and IIB
at 2.0%, 1.9% and 1.9% respectively. For BOB, a large aviation account slipped during IIB BUY 1800
the quarter, excluding which gross slippage ratio amounted to 1.08%. Annualised RBK ADD 285
slippage ratio was on the lower side for SBI, FED and CSB at 0.5%, 0.8% and 1.0%
KMB ADD 2065
respectively. Annualised slippage ratio was mid-range but broadly under control for
HDFCB, AXSB, KMB, INBK and ICICI at 1.3%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively. IDFCFB ADD 100

Most banks saw sequential contraction in NIM with only CUB, RBL, FED CUB ADD 165
and AXSB posting a sequential expansion among coverage banks DCB ADD 125
The sequential expansion of net interest margin amongst coverage banks was reported Note: Latest updated Targets and Recommendations
only by CUB, RBL, FED and AXSB at 7bps, 1bp, 1bp and 1bp respectively. For CUB, the
margin expansion was driven by rise in yield on advances outpacing the rise in cost of
deposits. For FED, the negative impact of incremental CRR and positive impact of
capital raise canceled each other out. NIM remained flat QoQ for IIB. The sequential
margin contraction was high for HDFCB, CSB and KMB at -70bps, -56bps and -35bps
respectively. HDFCB was impacted by consciously maintained excess liquidity. For
ICICI, BOB, DCB, INBK, SBI and IDFCFB, NIM was down by -25bps, -20bps, -14bps, -
10bps, -4bps and -1bp respectively. In terms of absolute level of NIM, it was particularly
elevated for IDFCFB, RBL and KMB at 6.32%, 5.54% and 5.22% respectively. NIM was
also healthy for CSB, ICICI, IIB and AXSB at 4.84%, 4.53%, 4.29%, and 4.11%
respectively. NIM for CUB, DCB, INBK and HDFCB was mid-range at 3.74%, 3.69%,
3.46% and 3.4%. NIM was relatively lower for BOB, FED and SBI at 3.07%, 3.16% and
3.29% respectively.

All coverage banks posted healthy sequential loan growth with IDFCFB,
KMB and CSB leading the pack
The banks that grew the fastest sequentially from our coverage universe were IDFCFB,
KMB and CSB at 6.8%, 6.0% and 5.5% respectively. The banks that followed in this
regard were FED, DCB, ICICI, HDFCB, IIB, AXSB and RBL with sequential loan growth
of 5.1%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5% and 4.4% respectively. Sequential growth was
also reasonable for BOB, SBI, INBK and CUB at 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1% and 3.0% respectively.

Sequential fee income growth was strong for BOB, DCB, CSB and INBK.
Sequential opex growth was elevated for SBI and CUB
Sequential fee income grew the fastest for BOB, DCB, CSB and INBK at 32.4%, 29.3%,
26% and 20% respectively. The sequential fee income growth was also healthy for FED,
KMB, AXSB and HDFCB at 14.5%, 10.9%, 10.6% and 10.3% respectively. The fee
income sequentially de-grew for CUB and SBI at -1.9% and -1.4% respectively. Total
opex sequentially de-grew only for RBL at -0.8%. The sequential growth in total opex
SHIVAJI THAPLIYAL
was somewhat high for BOB, IIB, AXSB and IDFCFB at 7.5%, 7.1%, 5.9% and 5.8% Head of Research
respectively. Total opex grew the fastest for SBI, CUB, HDFCB and FED at 20.3%, & Lead Analyst
11.4%, 9.5% and 8.4% respectively. SBI was impacted due to an upward revision of shivaji.thapliyal@ysil.in
wage hike.

We most prefer BOB, AXSB, SBI, INBK, ICICI and FED in the banking
space, while we least prefer DCB, CUB, IDFCFB, KMB and RBL SIDDHARTH RAJPUROHIT, Analyst

Our detailed 14-bank pecking order is provided at the top on the right-hand side of this
page.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
14
Banks

Exhibit 1: Banks 2Q FY24 Results – Performance Snapshot – Part I


Loan to Change in Loan to Core Fee
Loan Growth NIM* Chg. In NIM NII Growth Opex Growth
Deposit Deposit Growth
Company
% % bps bps bps bps % % % %
% % % qoq % qoq
qoq yoy qoq yoy qoq yoy yoy yoy qoq yoy

HDFCB 4.9 57.7 3.40 (70) (70) 107.3 2,284 1,885 16.0 30.3 10.3 19.5 9.5 37.2

ICICI 5.0 18.3 4.53 (25) 22 85.8 40 (33) 0.4 23.8 7.5 16.2 3.5 20.8

SBI 3.4 13.3 3.29 (4) (3) 71.3 (6) 91 1.5 12.3 (1.4) 10.0 20.3 34.6

KMB 6.0 18.5 5.22 (35) 7 86.9 179 (355) 1.0 23.5 10.9 23.7 0.8 18.9

AXSB 4.5 22.7 4.11 1 15 93.9 274 376 3.0 18.9 10.6 31.4 5.9 34.1

IIB 4.7 21.3 4.29 0 5 87.7 86 534 4.3 18.0 0.0 13.2 7.1 24.5

BOB 3.6 19.3 3.07 (20) (26) 79.9 (43) 312 (1.5) 6.4 32.4 31.7 7.5 17.0

INBK 3.1 14.2 3.46 (10) 28 73.4 2 347 0.6 22.5 20.0 11.3 4.6 19.0

IDFCFB 6.8 26.1 6.32 (1) 49 102.1 (629) (708) 5.5 31.6 2.6 45.6 5.8 33.7

FED 5.1 19.6 3.16 1 (14) 82.8 33 (245) 7.2 16.7 14.5 29.6 8.4 26.2

CUB 3.0 2.3 3.74 7 (35) 83.0 100 (300) 3.0 (5.2) (1.9) 8.4 11.4 17.2

RBL 4.4 21.3 5.54 1 52 85.0 (33) 574 3.7 25.6 5.9 24.6 (0.8) 16.3

CSB 5.5 27.4 4.84 (56) (76) 87.5 127 425 (5.6) 5.8 26.0 65.6 4.4 49.4

DCB 5.1 19.1 3.69 (14) (19) 81.9 (55) (273) 1.1 15.7 29.3 26.0 1.0 13.7
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research, * NIM for 2QFY24, Sorted on Market capitalisation

Exhibit 2: Banks 2Q FY24 Results – Performance Snapshot – Part II


Gross Net
Slippage Credit
Core PPOP Growth Slippage Slippage Provision Growth GNPA Ratio PCR
growth Cost^
Company Ratio Ratio
%
% qoq % yoy % % qoq % % qoq % yoy % %

HDFCB 17.5 21.7 1.3 34.5 0.6 0.5 1.5 (10.4) 1.3 74.0

ICICI 0.8 23.0 1.7 (11.9) 0.0 0.2 (54.9) (64.6) 2.5 82.6

SBI (23.3) (16.9) 0.5 (48.2) 0.0 0.0 (95.4) (96.2) 2.6 91.9

KMB 5.6 28.2 1.5 9.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 167.6 1.7 79.1

AXSB 4.2 12.1 1.5 (18.4) 0.6 0.4 (21.3) 48.2 1.7 94.0

IIB (0.5) 10.0 1.9 6.5 1.0 1.3 (1.8) (14.7) 1.9 71.0

BOB (8.6) 23.0 1.9 72.1 1.0 0.9 11.0 32.8 3.3 93.2

INBK (0.5) 15.4 1.6 7.0 0.5 1.3 (10.9) (24.7) 5.0 95.6

IDFCFB 2.0 38.4 3.1 21.8 2.0 1.2 11.0 24.6 2.1 84.1

FED 9.0 11.8 0.8 (25.5) 0.6 0.1 (71.8) (83.6) 2.3 71.0

CUB (6.4) (19.8) 2.0 (41.2) (0.0) 0.5 (63.2) (46.7) 4.7 71.0

RBL 17.0 48.9 3.0 (2.5) 2.0 3.6 140.6 165.2 3.1 88.4

CSB (14.3) (34.5) 1.0 63.6 0.3 (0.2) NA (10.7) 1.3 91.8

DCB 0.9 10.9 4.3 15.5 1.1 0.4 5.2 28.0 3.4 75.5
Source: Company, YES Sec – Research,  Annualised NPA Addition Ratio, ^ Annualised, Sorted on Market capitalisation

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
15
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock coverage universe

Building Materials Stock

APOLLOPIPE
Rating

BUY
TP

820

ASTRAL NEUTRAL 1846

Decent performance, expect improvement from CARYSIL BUY 882

H2FY24 ! CENTURYPLY NEUTRAL 657

CERA NEUTRAL 8139


Q2FY24 was a decent quarter for building material companies. Plastic pipes continued FINOLEX SELL 164
their dream run wherein volumes grew by ~20-25%YoY owing to strong demand from
plumbing segment. Sanitaryware & Faucets segment reported a steady growth of GREENPANEL NEUTRAL 346
~8%YoY wherein growth was driven by Metros & Tier-I. Tiles witnessed tepid demand GREENLAM NEUTRAL 478
due to sluggishness in domestic market, however exports continued to grow m/m basis.
Woodpanels reported better than expected performance wherein all product GREENPLY BUY 250
categories showcased early signs of revival. HINDWARE
BUY 803
HOME
Going ahead, H2FY24 is expected to be materially better than H1FY24 with KAJARIA NEUTRAL 1261
improvement in demand across segments. The consensus view from all company’s
commentary suggests that demand has started to revive since Oct’23. Owing to healthy PRINCEPIPE ADD 787
industry tailwinds & shift in preference for branded products, organized manufacturers SUPREME REDUCE 3876
will outperform industry growth. Hence, we believe that Building Material Industry
should witness strong demand in coming years. SOMANYCERA BUY 797

Plastic Pipes: Strong plumbing demand, robust works in Jal-Jeevan mission, enabled
plastic pipe companies to register stellar growth in Q2FY24. Incrementally with steady
PVC resin prices, companies registered steady EBITDA/Kg. Managements believe that
demand is likely to remain robust & they foresee massive growth in coming quarters.
Though there was destocking at dealer levels due to sharp drop in PVC resin prices in
early Oct’23, the channel has resumed restocking with improvement in prices. Hence
H2FY24 will continue to witness strong trajectory. On resin front, the prices are
expected to remain range-bound & with no major volatility. Eastern markets are
witnessing sharp surge & hence all companies are setting-up capacities in the said
region to cater the growth. We reckon this segment will continue to outperform other
segments & Apollo Pipes & Supreme Industries Ltd remain our preferred pick from
Plastic Pipes segment.

Woodpanels: Demand for overall segment was better than expected. Laminates
outperformed the growth and Plywoods registered steady growth. MDFs demand
domestically grew sharply but growing imports of MDF dented the performance of
domestic manufacturers. Elevated timber cost continued to weigh on operating margins
of the companies. Though couple of manufacturers took price hikes, the full impact of
same will be witnessed from coming quarters. With increase in sales of real-estate &
new construction picking up, woodpanel industry should witness healthy demand from
H2FY24. However growing competition form unorganized segment, could limit the
outperformance by organized manufacturers. We prefer Greenply Industries Ltd &
Century Plyboards ltd from this segment.

Ceramics: Sanitaryware & Faucets continued to register steady performance in


Q2FY24. Though demand was sluggish in Tier-II&III cities, metros & Tier-I were the key
drivers. On input side, there was no material change during the quarter & hence
companies reported stable operating margins. Tiles, however reported sluggish growth
due to tepid demand in domestic markets. Industry experts believe that demand should
bounce back in H2FY24 & Oct’23 witnessed healthy traction on YoY basis (though this
could also be due to low-base of last Oct wherein there was festive). Gas cost is likely
to go up with onset of winters but the same will not impact margins materially as UDIT GAJIWALA
volumes are expected to improve. Competitive intensity is likely to surge for Tiles as Lead Analyst
new capacities are coming-up in Morbi which will restrict manufacturers to improve udit.gajiwala@ysil.in
pricing. Hindware Home Innovations Ltd is our preferred pick from this segment.

From our universe we recommend Hindware Home Innovations Ltd, Apollo Pipes Ltd VICKY WAGHWANI, Associate
& Greenply Industries Ltd as our Top-picks.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
16
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW
Stock picks

Capital Goods
Company Rating TP
L&T NEUTRAL 2,929
Apar ADD 6,000
Voltamp BUY 5,836

Gross margin expansion leads to strong PAT BEL NEUTRAL 134


Cummins REDUCE 1,700
growth; revenue growth moderates but still ABB India BUY 5,200

strong Triveni Turbine


Siemens
ADD
REDUCE
441
3,554
KEC BUY 740
Revenue growth stood strong albeit decelerating from Q1 GE T&D SELL 315
Q2FY24 marked a strong albeit moderated revenue growth of 17% YoY (ex-L&T Engineers India REDUCE 143
revenue growth stood at 11% YoY). Healthy conversion of a strong order backlog was Thermax NEUTRAL 2,760
seen across the capital goods space. The moderation in revenue growth pace (from 31% Note: Latest updated Targets and
YoY in Q1FY24) could be attributed to higher base and capacity constraints. ABB and Recommendations
Triveni Turbine led the pack with over 30% YoY revenue growth while BEL, GETD,
Engineers India and Cummins saw flat to low single digit decline in revenue.

Exhibit 1: YoY Revenue growth in Q2FY24


32% 31%
21% 20% 19%
11% 11%
1%

0% -1% -3%
ABB (CY)

Voltamp

Electronics
Triveni Turbine

L&T

KEC

GET&D
Apar Industries

Cummins
Thermax

Engineers India
Bharat

Source: Company, YES Sec

EBITDA Margin expanded 290bps YoY (ex-L&T) primarily led by strong


gross margin expansion
EBITDA margin stood at multi-quarter high or nearing recent highs for most companies
as gross margin expansion was the trend during the quarter. Management commentary
was positive backed by stiff prices along with falling costs leading to the high gross
margin. EBITDA margin (Ex-L&T) expanded 290bps YoY to 13.4%. Six companies saw
more than 300bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion (with leaders being ABB, GE T&D
and Engineers India) while L&T was the only company posting a margin decline.

Exhibit 2: YoY expansion in EBITDA margin in Q2FY24

900 791
688
700 588
500 346 343 294
300 211 193 172
100 16

(100)
(41)
(300)
ABB (CY)

Voltamp

Thermax

KEC

Triveni Turbine

L&T
GET&D

Bharat Electronics

Cummins

Apar Industries
Engineers India

ABHIJEET SINGH
Lead Analyst
abhijeet.singh@ysil.in
+91 22 6885 0521

Source: Company, YES Sec


HARSH TEWANEY, Analyst

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
17
Capital Goods

Strong margin and other income led to 45% YoY PAT growth for the universe
PAT growth stood strong at 45% YoY (ex-L&T, at 46% YoY) led by expanded EBITDA Margin and
higher other income due to higher interest rates and increased investments value in Mutual
Funds. GE T&D PAT grew 334% YoY on a low base while ABB recorded 115% YoY growth in
PAT. Apart from KEC (1% growth in PAT), all other companies reported more than 20% YoY PAT
growth.

Exhibit 3: PAT grew 45% YoY in Q2FY24

334%

115%
69%
49% 45% 44% 38% 33% 30% 20%
1%
GET&D

KEC
Triveni Turbine
Voltamp

Bharat Electronics

Cummins
Thermax
L&T
ABB

Apar Industries

Engineers India
Source: Company, YES Sec

Order Inflow growth stood at 44% YoY (ex-L&T)


Order Inflow (OI) growth momentum remained robust with OI growing at 44% YoY (ex-L&T) while
L&T reported 72% YoY growth in OI. BEL and Engineers India grew OI more than 3x and 5x
respectively on a low base (given lumpy quarterly inflows). GE T&D saw continued strong
ordering momentum with OI growing at 123% YoY while ABB and Triveni Turbine saw more
normalized OI growth of 14% YoY and 27% YoY respectively. KEC, Thermax and Voltamp
(calculated) saw decline in order inflows. Thus, Order Book for the sector grew 21% YoY during
Q2FY23 providing healthy revenue growth visibility in upcoming quarters.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
18
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock picks

Cement Stock
ACC
Rating
BUY
TP
2,467
Ambuja BUY 487

Volume led earning recovery, cost moderation Birla Corp NEUTRAL 1,370
Dalmia Bharat BUY 2,896
benefit yet to chip in India Cements REDUCE 195
JK Lakshmi NEUTRAL 855
Double-digit volumes growth drive robust revenue
Orient Cement NEUTRAL 216
Aggregate revenue for our coverage came largely as anticipated, grown by +14% y/y
in Q2FY24 on account of strong volume growth with marginal decline in NSR. In Ramco Cement ADD 1,163
Q2FY24, Aggregate volume of our coverage grew by +15% y/y aided by newly added Sagar Cements BUY 315
capacities and higher infra & construction activities. Many large players from our
Shree Cements ADD 30,552
coverage achieved double-digit volume growth of ~10-40% y/y, while DALBHARA
reported single digit volume growth of ~7% y/y due to erratic rainfall & loss of market UltraTech ADD 9,572
share in the east. In Q2FY24 management commentary, the company guided strong Note: Target and Recommendation as on Result date
demand outlook for the coming quarter post festive season. While states like Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh & Telangana will see some moderation in demand because of ongoing
elections. Aggregate NSR declined marginally by 1% y/y and flat sequential aided by
the price hike during the quarter. Management guided the pricing environment to
improve in the H2FY24 aided by robust demand from across segments.

Robust volume and moderating cost drives EBITDA growth y/y


In Q2FY24, Aggregated EBITDA for our coverage came as anticipated, grew by +80%
y/y aided by robust volume growth with eased cost. Power cost/te declined by 20%
y/y as low-cost inventories gets utilized. While RM cost/te surged by 17% y/y because
of slag & fly ash price inflation and expected to remain elevated. Accordingly, the total
cost/te declined by 7% y/y resulting in an aggregate EBITDA/te of Rs868 in Q2FY24
against Rs544 in Q2FY23 and Rs891 in Q1FY24. Aggregate kiln fuel cost was
Rs1.9kcal/kg in Q2FY24, management commentary suggests that the low-cost fuel
inventories will be margin accretive by ~5-7% in Q3FY23.

PAT recovered significantly, while rising CAPEX led debt deteriorating


the earning visibility
In Q2FY24, Aggregate PAT surged by +234% y/y on account of recovery in operating
profitability aided by higher volume and eased cost. With the robust demand outlook
and gaining market share, cement players are on expansion spree. As a result, cement
companies announced a huge expansion for the next 2-3 years, inflating their debt
structure. Therefore, we trimmed our PAT estimate by 10-20% for many companies
during the quarter due to higher depreciation and interest outgo.

Our View – Long term view POSITIVE:


We remain cautiously POSITIVE on the sector over long term demand & pricing
activities, additionally, we are closely monitoring the energy/cement price volatility as
it might keep the margins in check. Since Mar’23 exit, the cement prices saw a steep
correction with partial/at par recovery across the region. Whereas the energy prices
corrected significantly from its peak, easing major pressure from the margins. Currently,
imported coal rebound to $140/te v/s $110/te in Jun’23 and pet coke at $130/te v/s
$105/te in Jul’23, which should start witnessing from next year. Hence, price
improvement and its sustenance will be vital for the industry to achieve healthy
margins.
ABHISHEK LODHIYA
We kept our view unchanged for most of our coverage companies. However, our rating Lead Analyst
for many companies under our coverage got changed as we rolled forward our abhishek.lodhiya@ysil.in
estimates to FY26 also because of earnings revision or recent price action in the stocks.

We prefer DALBHARA and SGC as top picks. SONU UPADHYAY, Associate

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
19
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock coverage universe

Consumer Durables Company

Dixon Technologies
Ratings

NEUTRAL
TP

5458

Whirlpool ADD 1840

Poor consumer demand and discounting results in Voltas NEUTRAL 866

subdued Q2 Hitachi SELL 684

Blue star NEUTRAL 950


Most of the Electricals companies has seen weak revenue and margin performance as
IFB Industries REDUCE 788
consumer demand has been subdued and there has been shifting of festive season in
Q3. Wires and Cables continues to remain resilient led by strong demand for Cables Crompton NEUTRAL 306
(Underground Power Cables) resulting out of increased capex activity and exports
Havells BUY 1620
opportunities, wires demand has been steady given the pick-up in real estate.
Orient Electric BUY 281
 Kitchen Appliances companies continues to struggle with revenue decline seen Bajaj Electricals NEUTRAL 1141
across all the companies in 2Q. Our channel checks have also suggested that
demand for kitchen appliances have been under pressure for past few quarters Polycab India NEUTRAL 5305
which had continue in Q2FY24 as well. Amber Enterprises ADD 3255
 On the positive side the RAC has seen demand improving post poor summer Q2. TTK Prestige ADD 882
The companies that have RAC as the dominant category has registered growth in
Symphony ADD 996
the seasonally weak quarter, while other large appliances like Refrigerators and
washing machines has seen poor demand. Companies like Blue star and Voltas as V-Guard ADD 329
seen better than expected revenue growth in their products (cooling) segment.
Stovekraft BUY 624
 Demand for entry level products continues to be lower; while demand for premium Note: Target and recommendation as of last update
products have started to moderate form the higher levels which has started to
impact urban areas. There were some green shoots visible from mid-October
which companies have highlighted in their earnings call.
 On an average basis gross margin has seen strong rebound on account of stability
in commodity prices while the same is not reflecting in the EBITDA margins as
many of the companies has resorted to discounting as demand has been relatively
lower than envisaged. Further some of the companies are investing in capability
and brand building resulting in lower EBITDA margins
 Almost all the companies in their earnings call have guided 2HFY24 to better than
1HFY24 as festive season has started on the positive note and demand sentiments
have seen improvement with footfalls across the channels have seen increase.
 On the channel front, growth of the alternate channels are moderating. Companies
which has a strong presence in offline distribution channels are faring relatively
better.
 Key positive surprises came from Polycab and Blue star whereas Whirlpool,
Havells and Hitachi delivered negative surprise.

AAKASH FADIA
Analyst
aakash.fadia@ysil.in

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
20
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks

FMCG
Company Rating TP
BRIT NEUTRAL 4,920
CLGT NEUTRAL 2,080
DABUR BUY 640

Gross margin QoQ improvement was the only GILL ADD 6,850
HUL ADD 2,855
saving grace in 2QFY24 ITC ADD 500
MRCO ADD 625
Q2FY24 topline of our FMCG universe grew by just 3.7% YoY, 0.4% lower than our NEST REDUCE 23,420
estimate. The 4-year revenue CAGR for FMCG universe stood at around 9.6%. For majority Note: Last updated target price and recommendation
of coverage companies’ volume growth was a disappointment. NEST, CLGT and BRIT were
a big miss on volumes vs our expectation. Pricing growth has further come-off this quarter
across companies, largely on expected lines, leading to subdued YoY revenue growth.
Aggregate EBITDA margin for FMCG coverage expanded by ~120bps YoY to 27.7%, in-line
with our estimate. Thus, aggregate EBITDA/APAT growth for our FMCG coverage stood at
8.5%/12.5% YoY, -0.4%/1.7% compared to our estimates. Apart from the sequential gross
margin improvement for the larger set, there was no major positive in 2QFY24. Companies
remain cautiously optimistic about rural recovery in 2H with factors in place. There was a
watchful tone on input basket inflation due to the recent volatility in key commodities.
Positive surprises in Q2FY24: BRIT and HUVR’s margin performance surprised us positively
this quarter largely due to softer commodity cost, thus there was a beat of ~10%/~4% on
EBITDA, respectively.
Negative surprises in Q2FY24: While NEST and CLGT disappointed on volume growth, ITC
and GILL’s margin came in lower than our estimates.
Rating changes during Q2FY24: Due to limited upside on Sept’25 EPS, we downgraded
NEST a notch to REDUCE rating. While on the other hand, post recent corrections, we have
upgraded DABUR to BUY and HUVR back to ADD rating, based on Sept’25 valuation.

Market context
 Rural continues to remain sluggish: While indicators were showing an improving
trend, uneven distribution of rainfall and a deficient monsoon seems to have
impacted rural consumption in 2QFY24. Volume growth trend was thus impacted
even while urban was resilient. Moderating inflation, resilient urban demand, festive
season entirely in 3Q and lower base effect will be key factors for volume recovery
going ahead in 2H.
 Trade ex-GT doing well: Modern channels like modern trade, e-commerce continues to
grow at a much faster clip and GT business is not doing so well.
 South India lagging other markets: Rural market seems to be worst hit in South India
market impacted by credit in the market and uneven monsoons.
 Regional players continue to put pressure: The market continued to witness higher
competitive intensity with resurgence of regional players in select categories and price
points. The smaller players are growing faster than the larger players in key categories.
Media intensity has thus gone up this quarter.
 Price component just a small contributor now: Market price growth tailing off due to
anniversarization and incremental cuts taken to pass on soft commodity price, albeit
remains high on 3-year basis.

Q2FY24 performance:
 Q2FY24 topline of our FMCG universe grew by just 3.7% YoY, 0.4% lower than our
estimate. The 4-year revenue CAGR for FMCG universe stood at around 9.6%. For
majority of coverage companies’ volume growth was a disappointment. NEST, CLGT
and BRIT were a big miss on volumes vs our expectation. Pricing growth has further
come-off this quarter across companies, largely on expected lines, leading to subdued
YoY revenue growth.
 Operating performance during the quarter was saved by sifter commodity cost leading
to further improvement in gross margins profile. Aggregate EBITDA margin for FMCG VISHAL PUNMIYA
Lead Analyst
coverage expanded by ~120bps YoY to 27.7%, in-line with our estimate. Operating
margin expansion was slightly suppressed as media spends picks up. vishal.punmiya@ysil.in

 Thus, aggregate EBITDA/APAT growth for our FMCG coverage stood at 8.5%/12.5%
YoY, -0.4%/1.7% compared to our estimates.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
21
Q2FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks

Information Technology Company

TCS IN
Rating

ADD
TP

4,056

INFO IN BUY 1,838


Performance remains subdued with near term challenges WPRO IN NEUTRAL 427
impacting sequential performance HCLT IN ADD 1,388

TECHM IN NEUTRAL 1,190


The performance in Q2FY24 in terms of revenue growth and operating margin was
broadly inline. Deal wins were as per trend for the quarter. The IT companies have LTTS IN NEUTRAL 4,689
indicated that clients remain cautious with regard to macroeconomic environment and LTIM IN BUY 6,360
there has been increase in decision making time on the part of clients. Discretionary
COFORGE IN BUY 6,210
tech spending on the part of clients remain subdued. Attrition continues to come down
and will take 1-2 quarters before coming to normal levels. The execution remains strong MPHL IN ADD 2,472
as most IT companies continue to focus on operational efficiency. We remain positive HAPPMN BUY 1,100
on the outlook of the IT sector in the medium to long term led by growing digitalization
across enterprises. However, there are near term headwinds as slowdown in EMUDHRA IN BUY 556
discretionary spending continues to adversely impact deal booking and revenue Note: Rating and Target as on Result
growth. Select Tier 2 IT companies continue to outperform Tier 1 IT companies in terms date/latest report Release
of revenue growth.

Weakness in near term demand environment: The long term demand environment
continues to remain robust led by new age technologies such as AI, Digital and cloud
migration. However, the slowdown in discretionary expenditure has led to moderation
in near term demand environment as there has been some increase in deal conversion
cycle with regard to new deals, thus impacting deal booking in near term and would
lead to slower revenue growth for FY24. The digital business now contributes more
than 50% of the revenue of top 10 IT companies.

FY24 to remain subdued with growth picking up from FY25: The execution engine
remains robust for them as they are well placed to drive operational efficiency in
coming quarters. The revenue growth would remain muted in FY24 with growth picking
up from FY25, led by expected improvement in TCV to revenue conversion. There are
signs of softness in verticals such as HiTech, Telecom, US BFSI etc. Segment-wise;
Manufacturing, Healthcare and Travel are expected to maintain robust growth
momentum.

Margin should broadly improve in FY24 YoY for most IT companies: Attrition has
started to come down for all IT companies and should support operating margin. Other
expenses such as Travel and Admin have started to come back as more employees
come to office. However, we estimate that the IT companies in general have sufficient
operating levers that will help them to report higher margin in FY24 vs FY23, led by
positive operating leverage, productivity measures, lower subcontracting cost and
improvement in employee pyramid structure.

Our Top picks in the Tier 1 IT space are Infosys and TCS; whereas, our top picks in the
Tier 2 IT space are LTIMindree and Coforge.

PIYUSH PANDEY
Lead Analyst
piyush.pandey@ysil.in

PARTH GHIYA, Associate

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
22
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Life Insurance

Insurers, AMCs and Fintech Company


MAXF
Rating
BUY
TP
1200
SBIL BUY 1720
Margin evolution key for life insurers while asset IPRU ADD 625

managers benefit for rising equity markets LIC


HDFL
ADD
ADD
695
710
All coverage life insurers witnessed a sequential growth in APE and VNB Note: Latest updated Targets and Recommendations

APE was higher sequentially for SBI Life, Max Life, IPRU, LIC and HDFC Life by 72.6%,
48.5%, 41.1%, 37.4% and 30.8% respectively. The sequential growth was largely due
to seasonality in business where 1Q is a seasonally weak quarter. VNB margin for Max General Insurance
Life, LIC and HDFC Life was sequentially higher by 297bps, 163bps and 10bps, Company Rating TP
respectively whereas lower for IPRU and SBI Life by -200bps and -22bps respectively.
ICICIGI ADD 1550
Max Life and LIC calculates the VNB margin on actual cost basis due to which the first
Note: Latest updated Target and Recommendation
quarter margin is generally seasonally low. IPRU and SBI Life sequential deterioration
was driven by change in product mix with some shift from Par to ULIP due to strong
market conditions. Sequential VNB growth for SBI Life, Max Life, LIC, IPRU and HDFC
Life was 71.3%, 68.4%, 53.8%, 31.7% and 31.3% respectively. Asset Managers
For ICICIGI, our only coverage general insurer, loss ratio and underwriting Company Rating TP
loss both improved sequentially NAM ADD 460
UTI ADD 890
The net premium earned in 2QFY24 grew by 10.8%/12.2% QoQ/YoY. It was
HDFCAMC NEUTRAL 2900
sequentially driven higher by Fire, Crop and Miscellaneous segments. Crop insurance is
ABSL NEUTRAL 475
seasonal in nature and hence, there was a sharp increase QoQ. The motor segment net
earned premium grew 3.2% sequentially. The Health (incl. PA) segment net earned
premium grew by 4.9% sequentially and 29.5% on YoY basis. On the loss ratio front, CAMS BUY 3000
overall loss ratio improved by -340bps/-210ps QoQ/YoY to 70.7%. The sequential Note: Latest updated Targets and Recommendations

improvement was aided by the improvement in all segments except Health (incl PA).
Motor OD and Motor TP segment’s loss ratio sequentially improved by -290bps and -
1240bps respectively. Health (incl PA) segment loss ratios deteriorated QoQ by 360
Fintech
bps, to 82.3%. The underwriting loss for ICICIGI was at -Rs 1,460mn, lower (less
negative) by -54.3%/-4.1% QoQ/YoY. Company Rating TP
PAYTM ADD 1050
The QAAUM and operating profit grew sequentially for all coverage asset Note: Latest updated Target and Recommendation
managers
QAAUM in 2QFY24 grew sequentially for Nippon, HDFC AMC, UTI AMC and ABSL
AMC by 11.8%, 8.0%, 7.5% and 4.7% respectively. The calculated revenue yield for
HDFC AMC and ABSL AMC was higher QoQ by 2bps and 1bp respectively, whereas
flat for Nippon but down for UTI AMC by -2bps. The operating profit was higher QoQ
for Nippon, ABSL AMC, HDFC AMC and UTI AMC by 19.2%, 12.9%, 12.5% and 3.8%
respectively.

One 97 Communications (Paytm), our only coverage Fintech company,


continues to display improvement in underlying business
Revenue from operations was up 7.6%/31.6% QoQ/YoY, driven sequentially by
Payment Services to Merchants and Financial Services. Payment processing charges
were up 6.5%/9.5% QoQ/YoY and were 54.4% of Payments Services Revenue, down
-47bps/-913 bps QoQ/YoY. Contribution profit was up 9.4%/69% QoQ/YoY,
translating to a Contribution margin of 56.6%, up 93bps QoQ.

Among insurers, asset managers and fintech, we prefer select life insurers
over other segments SHIVAJI THAPLIYAL
In our coverage universe, among life insurers, general insurers, asset managers and Head of Research
& Lead Analyst
fintech, we most prefer select life insurers from a segmental standpoint. MAXF and
shivaji.thapliyal@ysil.in
SBIL are our top picks in the life insurance space.

SIDDHARTH RAJPUROHIT, Analyst

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
23
Insurers, AMCs and Fintech

Exhibit 1: 2Q FY24 Results – Life Insurance


VNB
APE Chg. In APE VNB Chg. In VNB Chg. In VNB Margin
Company Margin
Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn qoq% yoy% % bps qoq bps yoy
LIC 130,950 37.4 (12.5) 20,020 53.8 (12.2) 15.3 163 4
SBI Life 52,300 72.6 33.1 14,900 71.3 20.2 28.5 (22) (306)
HDFC Life 30,450 30.8 6.8 8,010 31.3 4.0 26.3 10 (71)
IPRU 20,620 41.1 3.2 5,770 31.7 (7.1) 28.0 (200) (308)
Max Life 16,530 48.5 38.8 4,160 68.4 11.5 25.2 297 (615)
Source: Company, YES Sec, Sorted on Market Capitalisation

Exhibit 2: 2Q FY24 Results – General Insurance


Chg. In
Inc from Chg. In Inc. from Underwriting
GWP Chg. In GWP Underwriting PAT Chg. In PAT
Company Invest. Invest. Profit
Profit
Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy
ICICI Lombard 62,723 (5.3) 18.3 7,230 16.3 13.8 (1,460) (54.3) (4.1) 5,773 47.9 (2.2)
Source: Company, YES Sec

Exhibit 3: 2Q FY24 Results – Asset Management Companies


Chg. In Operating Chg. In Op.
AAUM Chg. In AAUM Revenue PAT Chg. In PAT
Company Revenue Profit Profit
Rs. bn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy
HDFC AMC 5,247 8.0 22.2 6,431 11.9 18.1 4,822 12.5 19.2 4,376 (8.4) 20.2
Nippon AMC 3,506 11.8 23.0 3,975 12.2 19.9 2,414 19.2 24.7 2,443 3.8 18.5
ABSL AMC 3,109 4.7 10.0 3,350 7.7 7.7 1,919 12.9 5.3 1,781 (3.5) (7.1)
UTI AMC 2,668 7.5 14.2 2,916 3.1 0.3 1,191 3.8 (5.4) 1,828 (22.0) (9.9)

CAMS NA NA NA 2,751 5.3 13.5 1,221 11.0 15.1 838 10.7 16.2
Source: Company, YES Sec, Sorted on Market Capitalisation

Exhibit 4: 2Q FY24 Results – Fintech


GMV Chg. In GMV Revenue Chg. In Revenue EBITDA Chg. In EBITDA PAT Chg. In PAT
Company
Rs. bn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy Rs. mn % qoq % yoy
Paytm 4,500 11.1 41.5 25,186 7.6 31.6 (2,310) (21.1) (57.0) (2,926) (14.0) (48.0)
Source: Company, YES Sec

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
24
Q2Y24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks

Metals and Mining Company

TATA IN
Rating

ADD
TP

133

JSTL IN NEUTRAL 794

Low-cost raw material provides room for Note: Rating and Target as on Result
date/latest Report Release
margin expansion; however, global pricing still
under pressure
The performance in Q2FY24 in terms of revenue growth and operating margins were
majorly in-line with the consensus estimates mainly due to falling coking coal prices as
well as stable steel prices. On an average, the price differential on the coking coal costs
have been ~$50/t thereby providing the companies with a lot of breathing space amid
the low steel prices. Indian steel producers are also benefitting from the strong demand
in the country which has indeed helped sustain the Indian steel prices. The cause of
worry, however, is the cheaper imports coming in from China due to pricing differences.
The China re-opening has caused quite a disappointment whereas the global industry
was expecting to see a demand uptick. This has become one of the reasons where the
prices have been under pressure for quite some time. In addition to this, the Chinese
exports have not fallen as much as the domestic steel producers expected it to be. We
still have a positive outlook on the Indian Steel Sector in the long-run, however the
short term headwinds should be something to look out for by the steel producers.

Cheaper China imports and weak Chinese demand causing unfavorable macro-
environment for the steel producers: India has turned into a net importer of steel which
is slowly starting to become a cause of worry for the Indian steel producers. Weaker
demand in China and only a minor fall in the Chinese production and exports are
proving to be the biggest reasons behind the global steel prices being under pressure.
The Indian steel producers need to combat the cheaper Chinese imports and are
seeking government’s intervention in the same. We believe that the global prices have
now bottomed out and we can expect to see a rise in the global steel prices on account
of rising coking coal prices and with China playing a role in order to curb its steel exports
and production.

Chinese reopening disappointing; however domestic demand shows positive signs:


The China reopening has been quite muted as anticipated by the industry which has led
to the steel prices falling and forcing China to export more. However, with the emission
targets the country has for the industry, it is expected that these exports should come
down over the upcoming months. India, on the other hand has seen a strong rise in the
demand. The country witnessed a consumption growth of 13% in FY 2023 over the
previous financial year and the positive trend is expected to continue over the next
years.

Our top pick for the sector is Tata Steel.

MANAV GOGIA
Research Analyst
manav.gogia@ysil.in

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
25
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock universe recos

Pharmaceuticals Stock
Gland Pharma
Rating
ADD
TP
1,780

Dr Reddys’ NEUTRAL 5,580


ADD 405
US saves the day for margin Indoco Remedies
Ajanta Pharma BUY 2,020

Alkem REDUCE 3,770


US saves the day amidst domestic acute weakness
JB Chem REDUCE 1,380
US saved the day for second successive quarter as buoyancy in existing business amidst
benign pricing environment aided most portfolios. This would have led to strong gross Alembic Pharma ADD 800
margin improvement helping offset what was undoubtedly a weak acute season. ADD 2,070
Torrent Pharma
Domestic growth for acute players – JB Chem, Alkem was weak and even hitherto
strong performers like Mankind (Not Rated) saw growth in single digit, an outcome of Syngene SELL 590
the weak anti-infective and gastro therapies. RM costs faded into the background and REDUCE 2,500
Dr Lal
most of the earnings discussion was centered on US strength, especially for larger
companies. Diagnostics companies had a better quarter on back of seasonality and Metropolis REDUCE 1,430
volumes inched up to 7-8% for incumbents but lack of visibility in H2 and valuation out Vijaya Diagnostics NEUTRAL 560
of comfort zone keeps us away from Dr Lal and Metropolis. Downgraded Indoco and
Sequent NEUTRAL 92
Vijaya as margins have too much to do in H2 for former and mid-teens growth appears
priced in for the latter. Below we summarize Q2 for coverage companies. Note: Target and Recommendation as on Result date

Ajanta Pharma – US surprised on the upside and with similar sales expectations, this
warrants an increase in FY24 US growth to 8-9% vs flat earlier. Broadly, there is not
much change to growth expectation while we push up margin by ~100bps in FY24
resulting in +7% change to FY24 EPS and no major change to FY25.
Gland Pharma – Raise target multiple to 28x (from 25x) earlier to factor in better
operating environment and some premium to generics whom we value at 20-25x on
FY25. Any reversal/volatility in US business is a key risk which is also the reason for
not upgrading the stock. Retain ADD
Indoco–margin may have too much to do in H2 within the constraints of remedial costs
and sustained R&D. Downgrade to ADD and no longer a preferred pick.
Alkem – raise FY24/25 estimates by 6-8% but as was our stance in Q1, margin beat is
driven by US and cost savings, none of which may be a sustainable feature in H2 and
FY25. Continue to factor in 11% domestic growth next fiscal which leads to north of
18% margin; any moderation in PenG price would be a trigger for better margin and is
a risk to our upgraded Reduce rating.
Syngene - . Reiterate our view about a strong franchise but valuation likely fully
capturing FY25 recovery; faster than expected 19% growth in FY25 can create upside
risk to our SELL view.
JB Chem – Continue with cautious stance and tactically going light as elevated earnings
expectation do not leave any room for disappointment; Q3 might see domestic growth
but base is weak and CDMO too could be tepid
Dr Reddys - Revlimid peak and higher R&D in H2 may offset some of the triggers
leaving margin in the same ballpark as what has been delivered in H1. Indeed, next fiscal
reckon DRL could be looking at lower OPM as peak Revlimid sales and associated
margin behind and unlikely to be offset by any other such large product.
Vijaya Diagnostics - Expectation of mid-teens growth remains intact. Continue to value
stock at 36x FY25 EPS as we tweak FY24/25 estimates by 3-5%. In lieu of run up since
Q1 results, lower rating to Neutral even as we continue to like the underlying franchise
Torrent Pharma - Raise domestic growth assumption by 150bps to 15% for the year
and also increase interest expenses on back of H1 reported numbers; albeit, this results
in a marginal ~1% change to FY25 EPS. Retain ADD with revised TP Rs2,070 and
believe Torrent offers modest upside with high degree of earnings certainty.
Alembic Pharma - While we retain US$240mn revenue for US in FY25, it does depend
on nature of general/onco injectable approvals (company has netted decent ophthalmic
BHAVESH GANDHI
approval like Combigan) over next 2-3 quarters. Retain ADD based on 22x PE Lead Analyst
Dr Lal - Raise FY24 and FY25 EPS by ~9-8% primarily due to better realization and bhavesh.gandhi@ysil.in
margin YTD. However, lack of confidence on full-fledged volume recovery continues
to keep us away from the stock; Reduce stays.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
26
Q2 FY24 RESULT REVIEW Stock universe recos

Real Estate Stock


DLFU
Rating
BUY
TP
678
OBER BUY 1422

Resi, Retail & Hotel going strong; Office too on PEPL BUY 1000
SRIN BUY 500
revival path Note: Target and Recommendation as on Result date

Residential Real Estate (RRE):


Companies in the listed space continued their pre-sales momentum in the Q2FY24
even in the traditionally weak quarter. Most of the companies are confident to achieve
its full year guidance on the back of strong H1 pre-sales numbers and launch pipeline
for the H2. And pause in monetary policy augurs well with the ongoing demand.
Although the listed developers have reduced their debt in the current up cycle but
funding to the developers remains major challenge which will further accentuate the
consolidation on the supply side. Management bandwidth is focused on building strong
pipeline leading to higher business development activity and most of cashflow will be
diverted towards it along with the execution of launch projects. Developers with sizable
land-bank will be in an advantageous position as new land/projects will come at higher
prices which might affect the margins, though incremental cost will be a pass through.
All developers maintained their sales velocity in Q2FY24 even in the absence of new
launches while the remaining part of the year is launch heavy which will drive the sales
for FY24. As per PropEquity, the Top 7 Cities average price realization moved up by
7% YoY while Bangalore, Hyderabad and NCR witnessed growth above 10%.
Specifically, NCR witnessed strong growth of 23% YoY guided by Noida’s 34% YoY
appreciation in price and Gurugram’s prices appreciated 11% YoY. Recent data suggests
that the inventory overhang months was maintained at 12months. We believe with
consolidation in the industry, the reputed developers have an upper edge on the back
of delivery track record, strong brand recall, quality products, multi-year low inventory,
supply side constraints, low leverage, and ability to procure land & launch faster. Hence,
we like PEPL being leaders in Bangalore and increasing presence in other geographies
and OBER, as it has OC received projects and other projects are in advanced stages of
completion which will generate strong cashflow. We also remain positive on DLF for
the long run as the company has recently demonstrated strong capability to launch, sell
and execute with much better pace. Additionally, the company strengthened the launch
pipeline by embarking 41 out of 187msf as identified pipeline of new product launches
which will help company to beat/maintain the current sales run rate.

Annuity Assets:
In office assets Non SEZ assets were receiving demand while physical occupancies
which was concern earlier, now look to be improving with back in office campaigns.
Physical occupancies are improving every sequential quarter and even rental rates are
improving too with the increased enquiries. Additionally, corporates who were averse
to plan human resourcing/space management in advance, now have started doing again
with the higher space per headcount (de-densification). So, with the de-densification
and strong hiring happened in covid times, corporates are expanding their base. Now
even SEZ’s are witnessing the green shoot of demand as floor wise denotification is
expected to happen and which will bring much required relief. We recon strong demand
for the office assets on the back of India’s economic viability, skilled
labour/professionals and favourable business landscape.

Hotel Assets:
ABHISHEK LODHIYA
Traditionally a weak quarter for the hospitality industry but sequentially witnessed Lead Analyst
increased occupancy for the hotels. Revenue per room has been lower sequentially abhishek.lodhiya@ysil.in
after a strong quarter. Leisure and business hotels are witnessing strong growth backed
+91 22 6885 0521
by domestic and international travel.
SONU UPADHYAY, Associate
We prefer OBER & Prestige Estates Projects as top pick.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
27
Q2 FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks

SFBs, NBFCs & HFCs Stock


AUBANK
Rating
ADD
TP(Rs.)
840
EQUITASB BUY 120

A steady quarter UJJIVANS BUY 66


LICHF BUY 575

The performance of SFBs, NBFCs and HFCs in Q2 FY24 can be CANF BUY 916
encapsulated as below: REPCO BUY 550

Q2 FY24 manifested steady momentum (adjusted for seasonal features) in HOMEFIRS BUY 1,100
disbursements and asset quality aided by resilient economic/consumption activity, AAVAS NEUTRAL 1,650
steadied income/cash flows of borrowers and focused efforts on execution, collections,
APTUS BUY 350
and resolutions. Fresh delinquency creation (X bucket CE better than pre-Covid) and
delinquency flow was under control across products, except for Credit Cards and low- BAF BUY 9,700
ticket PL. NPL/Stage-3 resolutions were healthy and loan write-offs were moderate in SHFL BUY 2,400
general. Barring a couple of companies (MMFS & SBI Cards), the credit cost was
CIFC ADD 1,270
moderate across our coverage universe. Product-wise NIM performance was varied in
a scenario of rising funding cost. Microfinance witnessed NIM expansion on further MMFS NEUTRAL 300
manifestation of higher lending rates. Affordable home financiers experienced spread MUTH BUY 1,520
contraction with benefits of PLR increases behind.
CREDAG BUY 1,825

Microfinance SBICARDS ADD 900


Note: Target and Recommendation as on Result date
 Disbursements were healthy in the quarter and leading microfinance cos. (NBFC,
SFBs & Banks) are expecting strong growth in FY24 (guidance range of 20-30%).
 With legacy (Covid-related) stress cleaned-up and collection efficiency remaining
firm, the credit cost is estimated to be normal for the whole year.
 The notable feature was marginally lower collection efficiency excluding arrears
for North-based MFI players (Utkarsh SFB and Fusion).
 Spandana’s performance was stronger-than-expected and CREDAG’s
performance continued to be solid.
 NIM improved for NBFC-MFIs on the back of further upward re-pricing of the
portfolio, helping them to report strong RoA of 5% and above.

Vehicle Finance
 The quarter witnessed reasonably strong disbursements activity in products like
Cars/UVs financing, Used Vehicles financing and Construction Equipment
financing. Growth in MHCV and LCV/SCV financing remained relatively modest.
 Some improvement was seen in Stage 2 & Stage 3 buckets across players after the
seasonal increase in Q1 FY24.
 While write-offs were normal for Chola and Shriram Finance, it continued to be
elevated for MMFS and drove significant provisions and earnings disappointment
 Chola and Shriram Finance continue to deliver growth ahead of expectations, while
disbursement growth of MMFS has plateaued in the early teens.
 NIM was managed well by Chola and Shriram Finance, while the margin declined
more than expected for MMFS.

Affordable HFCs
 Q2 FY24 was yet another quarter of strong disbursements and collections for
Affordable HFCs like Home First, Aptus & Aavas.
RAJIV MEHTA
 Disbursement momentum was sustained at higher level by Home First, while it Lead Analyst
significantly accelerated for Aptus. Originations recovered, though lower than rajiv.mehta@ysil.in
estimated, for Aavas after the tech changes impacted business in Q1 FY24.
MANUJ OBEROI, Associate

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
28
SFBs, NBFCs & HFCs

 Core BT Out increased for Home First, while it was stable for Aavas and remained low for
Aptus.
 Portfolio Spread contracted by 20-30 bps for Aavas and Home First, while it was stable for
Aptus
 Strong collection trends drove improvement in early delinquency buckets and NPLs. Write-
offs remain non-meaningful.
 Management commentary on growth, asset quality and RoE remained positive.

Companies that Positively surprised


REPCO IN: Earnings surprise was led by better-than-expected NIM and asset quality
improvement

SHFL IN: Delivered a material PPOP beat with stronger-than-expected growth, a pleasantly
surprising margin expansion and improvement in portfolio quality.

SPANDANA IN: Display of better-than-expected growth execution and moderate core credit
cost.

EQUITASB IN: PAT beat aided by stable lending spread, stronger fee income, restrained
employee cost and lower credit cost (moderate net slippages even adj. for ARC sale).

UJJIVANS IN: Positives were stronger NII growth, sustained material bad debts recovery,
restrained opex growth and marginal credit cost.

Companies that Negatively surprised


MMFS IN: Earnings missed estimates due to sharper-than-expected contraction in NIM and
higher credit cost (led by higher write-off).

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
29
SFBs, NBFCs & HFCs

Exhibit 1: Q2 FY24 Results – Core Performance Snapshot


Core PPOP
Loan Growth Chg. In CoF Chg. In NIM NII Growth Opex Growth PAT Growth
Growth
Name
% % bps bps bps % % %
bps yoy % yoy % qoq % yoy % qoq % yoy
qoq yoy qoq yoy qoq qoq qoq yoy
AUBANK 5.3 33.1 10.0 90.0 (20.0) (70.0) 0.2 15.3 1.1 23.4 20.3 37.0 3.9 17.3
EQUITASB 5.5 37.1 27.0 96.0 (33.0) (57.0) 3.0 25.6 2.4 20.4 11.5 41.5 3.6 70.2
UJJIVANS 4.9 26.9 20.0 130.0 (40.0) (100.0) 3.9 24.1 3.3 24.4 13.4 31.2 1.1 11.4
LICHF 0.6 6.0 4.0 56.0 (17.0) 124.0 (4.4) 79.5 7.0 (0.6) (5.5) 101.1 (10.2) 289.6
CANF 2.6 15.7 - 113.0 32.0 25.0 10.9 25.8 20.5 29.5 9.1 25.0 (13.8) 11.5
HOMEFIRS 7.6 33.3 10.0 100.0 (10.0) (50.0) 6.8 32.6 2.2 28.2 6.9 40.9 7.5 36.9
AAVAS 4.6 22.1 20.0 87.0 - (17.0) 4.6 15.5 (2.3) 14.1 11.4 17.0 10.9 13.9
APTUS 6.8 28.2 11.0 71.0 (6.0) (36.0) 7.5 17.9 20.3 19.4 5.0 17.8 4.1 20.0
REPCO 2.1 7.1 20.0 120.0 30.0 50.0 6.7 19.2 8.8 24.4 7.3 17.3 10.1 37.9
BAF 7.5 32.9 13.5 85.0 (35.7) (63.4) 5.3 26.3 5.5 19.7 5.2 30.0 3.3 27.7
SHFL 4.9 19.6 13.0 55.1 61.0 50.0 9.3 17.9 5.1 21.8 11.3 16.3 4.5 12.6
CIFC 8.2 41.7 - 90.0 10.0 (20.0) 10.2 35.3 20.3 43.1 6.0 37.1 5.0 35.3
MMFS 8.1 27.0 20.0 90.0 (41.8) (128.1) 0.7 8.5 8.3 8.0 (5.7) 9.2 (33.3) (47.5)
MUTH 3.5 23.5 16.6 44.5 (43.6) 33.0 1.6 25.9 5.4 30.6 (0.9) 24.1 4.8 21.5
CREDAG 3.1 36.0 20.0 60.0 10.0 110.0 4.8 52.7 7.9 26.3 3.5 68.3 (0.4) 97.0
SPANDANA 10.6 69.2 - 130.0 (10.0) 110.0 23.9 87.5 11.1 41.5 40.2 143.0 4.7 134.8
FUSION 3.2 24.6 - 50.0 21.0 90.0 2.3 26.0 3.4 28.5 2.7 29.1 4.3 32.2
SBICARD 4.2 19.5 - 170.0 (20.0) (100.0) 4.2 18.9 5.4 12.6 2.4 23.9 1.6 14.7
Source: Company, YES Sec

Exhibit 2: Asset Quality Snapshot


GNPL / Stage 3 (%) Credit cost (%)* GNPL / Stage 3 Coverage (%)
Company
Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24
AUBANK 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.7 75.0 69.0 69.0
EQUITASB 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 0.9 0.9 56.9 57.8 57.7
UJJIVANS 2.6 2.6 2.4 (0.0) 0.5 0.8 98.0 98.0 96.0
LICHF 4.4 5.0 4.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 44.8 42.3 41.2
CANF 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.9 52.3 46.6 44.0
HOMEFIRS 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 34.0 31.0 30.3
AAVAS 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 26.9 26.9 27.5
APTUS 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 25.0 25.0 25.0
REPCO 5.8 5.5 4.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 49.6 51.4 57.4
BAF 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 63.8 64.8 66.0
SHFL 6.2 6.0 5.8 2.8 2.0 2.4 50.1 52.5 53.1
CIFC 3.0 3.1 3.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 46.0 45.4 47.3
MMFS 4.5 4.3 4.3 0.0 2.7 3.0 59.5 60.1 61.2
MUTH 3.8 4.3 4.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 - - -
CREDAG 1.2 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.6 2.0 65.7 69.6 69.3
SPANDANA 2.1 1.6 1.4 4.8 1.3 4.4 69.3 70.1 70.1
FUSION 3.5 3.2 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.4 75.5 76.2 76.4
SBICARD 2.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 7.5 7.2 63.6 63.8 64.1
Source: Company, YES Sec; * Credit cost is taken for respective quarter and annualized.

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
30
Q2FY24 RESULTS REVIEW Stock picks

Telecom and Internet Company


BHARTI IN
Rating
ADD
TP

1,050
TCOM IN ADD 1,939

Steady performance led by growth in ARPU INDUSTOW IN ADD 201


IDEA IN SELL 8
Telecom: Telecom operators reported inline performance for the quarter. Bharti Airtel SOTL IN NEUTRAL 156
gained around 3.7mn mobile subscribers in India wireless. Jio added around 11.2mn
subscribers in the quarter to reach 459mn subscribers. Both Airtel and Jio have been INFOE IN ADD 5,065
gaining subscriber market share at the expense of Vodafone Idea. In terms of ARPU, INMART IN BUY 3,755
Bharti Airtel continued to maintain industry leading ARPU at Rs 203 for the quarter;
TANLA IN BUY 1,382
while Jio reported ARPU of Rs 181.7/month. Average data usage remains robust in the
range of ~20 GBs/month MAPMYINDIA IN BUY 2,625
NAZARA IN NEUTRAL 877
Both Airtel and Reliance Jio continue to add on to more cities to their 5G coverage.
Airtel is planning to launch 5G in all towns/cities by March 2024; while Jio is targeting SECIS IN BUY 570
pan India rollout by Dec 2023. They are still working on strategy for effective Note: Rating and Target as on Result
monetization of 5G rollout. There has been return of some sort of stability to the date/latest report Release
telecom industry led by telecom reforms in Sep’21 and tariff hike in Nov’21. Post
conversion of deferred interest to government equity, the Union government now
holds around 33% stake in VIL. VIL still needs massive capital infusion in the range of
Rs 400-500 bn to increase its capital expenditure to catch up with peers in terms of
network capacity. Also, its net debt at Rs 2 trillion remains high.

The telecom industry needs another round of tariff hike which along with 2G to 4G
migration would drive increase in ARPU going ahead. We expect significant tariff hike
only after the General election. Rising adoption of 5G would drive monetization
through higher data usage and telecom operators are offering unlimited 5G data with
their postpaid plans to drive prepaid to postpaid conversion.

Internet/Platform: Indiamart reported inline performance led by steady growth in the


number of paid customers. For Infoedge, the slowdown in IT hiring continues to have
impact on billings/revenue growth. Nazara Technologies saw dip in sequential margin
led by higher cost of content. For Tanla Platform, the performance was inline with
expectation and the traction in Wisely Platform going ahead would be key to watch out
for. MapmyIndia had muted quarter; however, it saw strong sequential improvement in
margin and we expect the growth momentum to improve in H2FY24. SIS Ltd. continues
to report recovery in EBITDA margin led by normalization of business environment.
The covid19 Pandemic has accelerated digital adoption and it is expected to support
the performance of internet companies going ahead.

PIYUSH PANDEY
Lead Analyst
piyush.pandey@ysil.in

PARTH GHIYA, Associate

For important information about YES Securities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.
31
30
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

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Kadam Marg, Opp. Peninsula Business Park, Lower Parel (West), Alpha Plus Fund (CAT III AIF) SEBI Registration No.: IN/AIF3/20-21/0818 |
Mumbai – 400 013, Maharashtra, India. AMFI ARN Code – 94338.

 research@ysil.in | Website: www.yesinvest.in Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Aditya Goenka,


Email id: compliance@ysil.in, Contact No: 022- 65078127 (Extn: 718127)

Grievances Redressal Cell: customer.service@ysil.in/igc@ysil.in

For important information about YES SECurities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

32
Q2 FY24 Earnings Review

DISCLOSURE OF INTEREST RECOMMENDATION PARAMETERS FOR FUNDAMENTAL


REPORTS
Name of the Research Analyst : Shivaji Thapliyal, Aakash Fadia,
Abhijeet Singh, Abhishek Lodhiya, Analysts assign ratings to the stocks according to the expected
Bhavesh Gandhi, Deep Shah, Hemant upside/downside relative to the current market price and the estimated
Nahata, Hitesh Jain, Manav Gogia, target price. Depending on the expected returns, the recommendations
Piyush Pandey, Piyush Pandey, Rajiv
are categorized as mentioned below. The performance horizon is 12 to
Mehta, Udit Gajiwala, Vishal Punmiya
18 months unless specified and the target price is defined as the
The analyst hereby certifies that opinion expressed in this research analysts’ valuation for a stock. No benchmark is applicable to the ratings
report accurately reflect his or her personal opinion about the subject mentioned in this report.
securities and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation and opinion
expressed in this research report.
BUY: Upside greater than 20% over 12 months
Sr.
Particulars Yes/No ADD: Upside between 10% to 20% over 12 months
No.
Research Analyst or his/her relative’s or YSL’s NEUTRAL: Upside between 0% to 10% over 12 months
1 No
financial interest in the subject company(ies)
REDUCE: Downside between 0% to -10% over 12 months
Research Analyst or his/her relative or YSL’s
actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more SELL: Downside greater than -10% over 12 months
2 securities of the subject company(ies) at the end No
of the month immediately preceding the date of NOT RATED / UNDER REVIEW
publication of the Research Report
Research Analyst or his/her relative or YSL has
3 any other material conflict of interest at the time No
of publication of the Research Report
Research Analyst has served as an officer, director
4 No
or employee of the subject company(ies)
YSL has received any compensation from the
5 No
subject company in the past twelve months
YSL has received any compensation for
investment banking or merchant banking or
6 No
brokerage services from the subject company in
the past twelve months
YSL has received any compensation for products
or services other than investment banking or
7 No
merchant banking or brokerage services from the
subject company in the past twelve months
YSL has received any compensation or other
8 benefits from the subject company or third party No
in connection with the research report
YSL has managed or co-managed public offering
9 of securities for the subject company in the past No
twelve months
Research Analyst or YSL has been engaged in
10 market making activity for the subject No
company(ies)

Since YSL and its associates are engaged in various businesses in the
financial services industry, they may have financial interest or may have
ABOUT YES SECURITIES (INDIA) LIMITED
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or
brokerage services or for any other product or services of whatsoever YES Securities (India) Limited (‘‘YSL’’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of YES
nature from the subject company(ies) in the past twelve months or BANK LIMITED. YSL is a Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
associates of YSL may have managed or co-managed public offering of registered Stock broker holding membership of National Stock Exchange
securities in the past twelve months of the subject company(ies) whose (NSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange
securities are discussed herein. (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). YSL is
also a SEBI-registered Category I Merchant Banker, Investment Adviser
Associates of YSL may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
and Research Analyst. YSL is also a Sponsor and Investment Manager of
and/or other material conflict of interest in the securities discussed
Alternate Investment Fund - Category III (YSL Alternates) and AMFI
herein.
registered Mutual Fund Distributor. The Company is also a registered
Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. YSL offers, inter alia,
HEMANT Digitally signed by
HEMANT SUMATILAL trading/investment in equity and other financial products along with
SUMATILAL NAHATA
Date: 2023.11.12 22:50:47 various value added services. We hereby declare that there are no
NAHATA +05'30'
disciplinary actions taken against YSL by SEBI/Stock Exchanges.

For important information about YES SECurities (India) Ltd. and other disclosures, refer to the end of this material.

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