Title: Seasonal status of Tropical Cyclone Frequency (TCF) and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) over the

Bay of Bengal (BOB) Authors: 1. R. Guha 2. R. Bhattacharya Institution: Department of Environmental Science, University of Kalyani, Kalyani 741235, West Bengal, India Corresponding Author: R. Guha Department of Environmental Science University of Kalyani Kalyani 741235 E mail : rishiparna@live.com

Abstract: Frequencies of tropical cyclonic storms are studied seasonally from 119 years data over the Bay of Bengal (BOB). Three major classes of these bay-storms (excluding those occur over land and Arabian Sea) are explored viz. Cyclonic Depression (CD; 17Wind Speed<34kt), Cyclonic Storm (CS; 34WS<48kt) and Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS; WS48kt) based on their seasonal status of abundance. Pre-monsoon storms show highest variation (75.54) and comparatively higher recurvature probabilities than other seasons. Anomaly projections of Tropical Cyclone Frequency (TCF) show more inhibitory effect on weaker storms while the intensity enhancement process is favored. 60 years data of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) are analyzed in pentad segments. A profound oscillating nature is found for Cumulative SSTA (CSSTA) during post-monsoon season. The decade of 1976 to 1985 is observed to be influential, containing the transition of SSTA from negative to positive phase. The identified increase in SSTA for each successive pentad is statistically tested and subsequently reported in this study. Keywords: Tropical cyclone frequency, Sea surface temperature, Seasonal frequency, Probability of recurvature.

1. Introduction Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are undoubtedly one of the most devastative weather phenomena around the world (Gray, 1988). Their potential of destruction certainly carries the importance to study their spatial and temporal variability (Emanuel, 1987; Cyclone Mannual, IMD, 2003; Emanuel, 2005). Recent studies reveal that TC frequency (TCF) over northern hemisphere has registered a decrement of 33% accompanied by 40% decrease in global number of storm days (Webster et al, 2005; Maue, 2010). However, in the global platform of TCF analysis Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) is often deprived from detailed study for its relatively less contribution to global TC number (Chan, 2006; Klotzbach, 2006; Maue, 2010; Klotzbach, 2010). But some studies made in the last decade bring about some remarkable climatological features of the TC status over this active cyclonic basin. About 80% of the TCs over NIO (Latitude: 5 N to 20 N, Longitude: 55 E to 90 E) occur in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) (Singh et al, 2001; Niyas et al, 2009). A typical MAPVIEW (5 5) of the annual TCF over NIO for the period of 1891-2007 is given in Fig.1. The grids with TCF > 300 are highlighted and they all belong to BOB. Fluctuation in TC occurrences over NIO is thus mainly dependent on the TCF over BOB since TCs over Arabian Sea (AS) are less prone to alteration. BOB and AS, together project a negative trend of -0.8 per year (Singh et al, 2000). But monthly TCF profiles revealed positive trends for May and November with a value of 0.67 per years for the later. These two months are abundant with intense TC formations over BOB and this increasing trend is observed to be doubled in the period of 1877 to 1999 (Singh et al, 2000; Singh et al, 2001). On the contrary, a drastic decrease in TCF has been observed in monsoon months (June2

July-August-September) after 1980. The subsiding trend for annual TCF is attributed for this radical monsoonal decrement (Mandke and Bhide, 2003). This TCF reduction in monsoon is also found to be associated with an inverse behavior in Sea surface Temperature (SST) over BOB. A positive shift is also found in SST anomalies (SSTA) over the bay after the same crucial year and similar changes are also observed for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon (Mandke and Bhide, 2003; Bhattacharya et al, 2011). The relationship of co-variability between TCF and SST over BOB is an important concern to emphasize because SST is one of the major criteria for TC genesis (Gray, 1988, Chu, 2002). Average SST over BOB and AS is higher than any other active cyclonic basin in northern hemisphere and projects an increasing trend as revealed from satellite data since 1970 (Webster et al, 2005). Available global SST consensus accounts for 0.5 degree rise and subsequently suggests probable modifications of present climate and inevitably the climatology of severe weather events (Sellers et al, 1998; Pielke et al, 2005). Again monsoon circulations also exert a powerful interplay in modulating the TCF status over BOB. Delay or advancement in the progression of monsoon decides seasonal TCF status over this bay (Rajeevan et al, 2000; Bhanu Kumar et al, 2010). Thus seasonal studies on the modulation of enhanced SST environment on TCF over the bay is essential (Kumar and Sankar, 2010). In this context decreased TCF along with rising SST together provide an interesting issue to study their variability. In the present study seasonal TCF status over BOB is detailed in terms of trend identification and strength classification. Synchronization of simultaneous variations in TCF and SST is explored in the observed SST environment.

2. Data and Methodology TCF data has been obtained from Cyclone e-Atlas (Version 1.0) outputs and Best-track data archive, IMD for the period 1891-2009. Three seasons viz. pre-monsoon (March-AprilMay: MAM), monsoon (June-July-August-September: JJAS) and post-monsoon (OctoberNovember-December: OND) are considered for the study. Here winter season has been ignored since it is less productive in terms of TC genesis over NIO (Niyas et al, 2009). The statistical analysis has been carried out using MATLAB (Version 7.0.4) and MINITAB (Version 16.0). Re-curvature probability of the TCs is generated by Cyclone e-Atlas software itself. SSTA time-series data has been obtained from NCEP re-analysis database for the period 1951-2010 for nullified trend at 1000 hPa pressure level. The SSTA values are analyzed for the basin grid between latitude 6N to 20N and longitude 81E to 96E. Forty point locations are selected to study the change in SSTA for each pentad segment (Pi, where i=1 to 12) of the study period taken into consideration. This dataset is particularly useful for climatological studies and available from 1948 to present. The geographical positions of the locations (GP) chosen are given in table 1. 3. Results a. Seasonal trend estimation TCF time series data set is statistically analyzed and parameters shown in table 2. It is evident that the values of co-efficient of variation are comparatively higher for MAM whereas for other parameters it shows least values. Thus it suggests high dispersion in TCF during pre-monsoon. More than 50% of the annual numbers of storms occur during the
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monsoon months according to values of f. These monsoon-storms usually belong to depression category, relatively weak and embedded inside the monsoon system. Figure 2 shows seasonal TCF variation utilizing a Box-Whiskers plot. Identification of the median at 95 % confidence level allows the distribution pattern to emerge out. Interestingly dispersive pattern is only reflected during MAM and OND with less extent for the latter and outlier occurrences (marked by asterisk *) are observed during JJAS. Figure 3 shows the fifth year moving averages of annual TCF according to their strength classification for the concerned three seasons (a, b and c) and annual (d) period. The frequency of weak storms i.e. Cyclonic Depressions (CD; 17Wind Speed<34kt) and Cyclonic Storms (CS; 34WS<48kt) has suffered a decrement as reflected from their negative trend slope of -0.0202 and -0.018 respectively. Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS; WS48kt) show trivial positive trend (0.0046) slope annually. This is may be due to increasing TCF during postmonsoon framing the peak activity period. The trend status is shown in table 3 and positive trends are highlighted. Monsoon (JJAS) period suffers negative trend for all three category storms on the contrary OND show positive drift for the same. Linear trend model fit show decreasing trend with 32.3% and 20.15% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for annual and MAM respectively. But MAPE value is considerably high JJAS and OND for their corresponding negative and positive trend. TCF anomalies (TCFA) are studied for the period similar to SSTA i.e. 1951-2005 (P1 to P11). Anomaly-range for less intense storms is low and increases with the intensity of the storms. This classification visualizes the exertion of damping characteristics over weaker storm formation than the intense ones (Fig. 4).
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(> 50%) for both

b. Variation of SSTA and storm track recurvature Variation of SSTA is studied over 40 locations given in table 1 for the period 1951-2010 on every fifth year mean. A positive shift has been identified after 1980 in the SSTA values for all three seasons for each location. This shift is more profound in case of OND and more prominent in case of JJAS. Paired t test has been performed for each consecutive pentad pair and the difference between the means of each pentad is investigated. Six out of eleven cases (54.54%) are found to be significant for MAM and OND. In eight cases (72.72%), mean of the presiding pentad are found to be less than just latter pentad (Pimean< Pi+1mean) at 0.05 significance level with 90% confidence. To avoid congestion of data, varying pattern of cumulative SSTA (CSSTA= ) along the study period is shown (Fig. 5)

instead of SSTA for individual locations. The probability of recurvature of these storms over BOB is also evaluated 1951 onwards up to 2005 (P1 to P11). P12 could not be included due to unavailability of finalized 2010 TC tracks. Probability of first, second and third kind (PFK, PSK and PTK) values are shown in Fig. 6 for each pentad of a particular season. These indices represent the tendencies (%) of a depression (D) system or CS to intensify into higher category storms viz. SCS. It is evident that intensification tendency is more during pre-monsoon and least during monsoon months. Positive trend is observed for PFK (0.875) and PTK (1.54) during OND. The higher probability of recurvature during pre-monsoon goes along with the idea of change of curvature which is often decided by the onset of monsoon. However no apparent co-relation is found between the CSSTA and recurvature probability of TCs.
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4. Discussions Basin-respective variability is the main feature of trend identification for TCF. Different basins have native diving forces for intensifying these tropical storms (Benstad, 2009). NIO has its unique parameters governing the variability of TCF over BOB (Klotzbach, 2010). In this study seasonal status of TC activity has been analyzed along with strength classification based on wind speed. Seasonal periodicity of TCF is often not portrayed due to flattening of the accumulation in TC number and in most of the studies TCF of peak activity months are emphasized. Present approach reflects decreasing trend in total number of TCs occurring over the basin. In spite of this decrement SCS frequency show positive trend and this increment is evident in the TCF during post-monsoon months (OND) also. Pre-monsoon (MAM) months TCF are found to be attributed with more characteristic features comparatively than monsoon and post-monsoon seasons viz. high co-efficient of variation and higher probability of recurvature. Variation of TCFA over the period of 1951-2005 reveals a transition period of TCFA from positive to negative phase. Monsoon months show prominent decrease in this very period but fluctuation resides in case of other two seasons. This period renders the initiation phase of decremented TCF at P6 (1976-1980) to P7 (1981-1985) as shown in Fig. 4. This decade (two pentads) are also found to be influential in case of CSSTA as well but with inverse effects. This kind of SSTA variation is also reported over western north Pacific Ocean with different transition period on annual basis (GuangHua, 2009). Since monsoon TCs are less intense and are of depression category their intensification is more or less invisible from the
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recurvature point of view. It can be acquainted that the association of enhanced SSTA is more pronounced on the weaker storms or depression events. The initiation conditions are inhibited by existing environment over BOB but the intensification conditions are favored so that the number of intense storms is increasing. Although NIO is a data-sparse region, extensive study has been carried out on the TCF variation by both monthly and seasonal scale to reveal the pattern for occurrences of storms over this region. Several earlier studies established this kind of SST modulation by Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) over NIO (Singh, 2008; Sugi et al, 2009). SST has always been considered as one of the most important parameter to decide the fate of the TCs occurring over active cyclonic basins around the world (Gray, 1988; Mehta, 1998). These types of modulations are also interlinked with TCF by altering the location of monsoon trough. Present study mirrors the impeding effect on relatively weak storms over the bay. More detailed study on the influential parameters can uncover the potency to explicate the actual governing criteria for the variations of these storms. At the verge of climate-change and global warming, the issue of predictability of the tropical storms in terms of abundance and strength are crucial (Sellers et al, 1998; Pielke et al, 2005; Sugi et al, 2009). Other active cyclonic basins of northern hemisphere are enriched with direct and indirect measurements for both climatological and dynamical criteria of TC genesis and maturation and even about their direction of movement. NIO suffers from constraints in this regard in manifold. Further studies on this arena will enlighten the actual variability of TCF on more insightful state.

Acknowledgements Authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department (IMD) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the relevant data. R. Guha is thankful to University Grants Commission, India for financial assistance.

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Gray, W. M., 1988: Environmental influences on tropical cyclones. Aus. Met. Mag., 36, 127-139. GuangHua, C., 2009: Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone activity in association with summer monsoon, sea surface temperature over western North Pacific. Chinese Sci. Bull., 54(8), 1417-1421. Klotzbach, P. J., 2006: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005). Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805 (doi:10.1029/2006GL025881,2006). , 2010: Tropical cyclone variability on seasonal time scales (Observation and forecasting). Seventh International Workshop on tropical cyclones, WMO/CAS/WWW No. 3.2. Kumar, R. R. K. and S. Sankar, 2010: Impact of global warming on cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean. Ind. J. Geo-marine Sci., 39(4), 516-520. Mandke, S. K. and U. V. Bhide, 2003: A study of decreasing storm frequency over Bay of Bengal. J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 7(2), 53-28. Maue, R. N., 2009: Northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05805 (doi: 10.1029/2008GL035946) Mehta, V., 1998: Variability of the tropical ocean surface temperatures at decadal multidecadal timescales. Part:1: The Atlantic Ocean, J. Climate, 8, 2351-2375. Niyas, N. T., A. K. Srivastava, and H. R. Hatwar, 2009: Variability and trend in the cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean. Met. Monograph, No. 3-2009, 1-34.
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Pielke, R. A. (JR), C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch, 2005: Hurricanes and global warming. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 86(11), 1571-1575. Rajeevan, M., U. S. De, and R. K. Prasad, 2000: Decadal variation of sea surface temperatures, cloudiness and monsoon depressions in the north Indian Ocean. Curr. Sci., 79(3), 283-285. Sellers, A. H., H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, P. Webster and K. McGuffie, 1998: Tropical cyclones and change: A post-IPCC assessment. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 79, 19 38. Singh, O.P., 2008: Indian Ocean dipole mode and tropical cyclone frequency. Curr. Sci., 94(10), 29-31. , T. M. A. Khan and M. S. Rahman, 2000: Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. Met. Atmos. Phys., 75, 11-20. and Coauthors, 2001: Has the frequency of intense tropical cyclones increased in the north Indian ocean?. Curr. Sci., 80(4), 575-580. Sugi, M., H. Murakami and J. Yoshimura, 2009: A reduction in global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 5, 164-167. Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry and H. R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 18441846. global climate

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Table 1. Geographical positions of the selected locations. GP

L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10

Lat
10N 12N 14N 6N 8N 10N 12N 14N 16N 18N

Long
81E 81E 81E 84E 84E 84E 84E 84E 84E 84E

GP
L11 L12 L13 L14 L15 L16 L17 L18 L19 L20

Lat
6N 8N 10N 12N 14N 16N 18N 20N 6N 8N

Long
87E 87E 87E 87E 87E 87E 87E 87E 90E 90E

GP
L21 L22 L23 L24 L25 L26 L27 L28 L29 L30

Lat
10N 12N 14N 16N 18N 20N 6N 8N 10N 12N

Long
90E 90E 90E 90E 90E 90E 93E 93E 93E 93E

GP
L31 L32 L33 L34 L35 L36 L37 L38 L39 L40

Lat
14N 16N 18N 20N 6N 8N 10N 12N 14N 16N

Long
93E 93E 93E 93E 96E 96E 96E 96E 96E 96E

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Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of the TCF time-series.

Period Parameter Years Mean Std.dev. Variance Co-efficient of variation Skewness Kurtosis Seasonal to Annual ratio (f)

MAM

JJAS 119

OND

Annual

1.050 0.7903 0.6246 75.24 0.43 -0.15 0.107

5.0 2.244 5.034 44.87 -0.12 -0.48 0.512

3.51 1.534 2.354 43.68 -0.01 -0.37 0.36

9.748 3.101 9.614 31.81 0.03 -0.52

Table 3. Seasonal trend status of TCF. MAM CD CS SCS CD+CS+SCS 0.009 -0.0002 0.0016 0.0026 JJAS -0.026 -0.02 -0.003 -0.059 OND 0.006 0.0015 0.006 0.006 Annual -0.02 -0.018 0.0046 -0.034

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Figure Captions

Fig.1 . Annual TCF over NIO from 1891-2007. Fig.2. Seasonal TCF variation. Fig.3. Five year moving averages of TCF for (a) MAM, (b) JJAS, (c) OND and (d) Annual with varied storm strength according to wind speed (kt). Fig.4. TCFA based pentad average of storm frequencies for (a) CD (17WS<34kt), (b) CS (34WS<48kt) and (c) SCS (WS48 kt). Fig.5. Projection of CSSTA in study period. Fig.6. Seasonal Recurvature tendencies of TCs.

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Fig. 1.

16

Fig. 2.

17

Fig. 3.

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Fig.4.
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20 15 10 5 CSSTA 0 P1 -5 -10 MAM -15 -20 Fig.5. JJAS OND P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12

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Fig. 6.

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