An industrial enterprise plans to produce a new type of product.

With the
help of the method of expert evaluations, forecast indicators of the probability of
various states of the products market and raw materials market are obtained.
Based on the forecast data, it is necessary to simulate the economic situation,
build a simulation model and calculate the expected income and risk of the
project.
Task.
1. Determine the estimated income for the project.
2. Determine the average quadratic deviation of the income and coefficient of variation.
3. Make a conclusion about the riskiness of the project.

Data for production facilities

№ Indicator Value
1 Total amount of production Ts. Unit 10
2 Variable costs ts. UAH. 800
3 Fixed costs ts. UAH. 150
4 Production cost UAH 95
5 Selling price UAH 150
6 Price of raw materials in the unit of UAH 75
production

Data on the market situation

№ Type of market situation Probability Selling price,
UAH.
1 Good demand 0,3 155
2 It will not change 0,5 150
3 demand will decrease 0,2 145

Output data on prices for raw materials

№ Change in the price of raw Probability change, %

materials
а Increasing 0,5 10
б At the current leve 0,3 -
с Decreases 0,2 5