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C OV I D -1 9

Here’s what to
know about the
new COVID-19
Pirola variant
Oct 11, 2023

At present, there is no evidence to suggest the new variant is

causing more severe illness. Image: Unsplash/Fusion Medical
Animation

Lora du Moulin
Lead, Global Health and Security, World Economic
Forum LLC

Charlotte Edmond
Senior Writer, Forum Agenda

Listen to the article

The Pirola variant of coronavirus has been

observed in several countries around the
world, and COVID-19 cases are rising again.

Initial evidence shows that Pirola is not

causing more severe illness and that existing
tests and medications used for COVID-19 are
effective. Pirola may however be more
capable of causing infection and evading
vaccines.

The World Economic Forum’s Health and

Healthcare Strategic Outlook sets out a
vision for transforming health systems until
2035, ensuring they are more resilient and
better prepared for the next pandemic and
other health challenges on the horizon.

COVID-19 cases are rising again and

there’s a new highly mutated variant
cropping up around the world. It feels like
we’ve been here before …

Nicknamed Pirola, variant BA.2.86 has over

30 new mutations and has been
discovered in several locations around the
world. It has been linked to an outbreak in
a nursing home in the UK, and is already
thought to be spreading in the community.

But is it a reason to start worrying about

COVID-19 again? In short, evidence to date
suggests no, but that we should remain
vigilant.

What do we know
about Pirola so far?
BA.2.86 was designated a “variant under
monitoring” by the World Health
Organization in August because of the
large number of mutations it shows. A
descendant of the Omicron strain, it shows
significantly more changes than other
versions that have emerged so far.

Heavily mutated viruses have the potential

to be less detectable by immune systems
and may have adaptations that make them
better at spreading, infecting, or causing
severe illness. Mutated forms of the virus
have previously been at the route of waves
of coronavirus infection, as was the case
with the Omicron variant.

However, there is no evidence to suggest

the variant is causing more severe illness,
nor has it been linked to any deaths yet.

COVID-19 cases are rising again in the UK. Image: Zoe

The impact of these mutations will

become clearer as more data emerges, but
scientists predict it may be harder for our
immune system to recognize Pirola, and to
mount a strong response. This is due to
the simple fact that our immune system is
less effective against versions of the virus
that we have not been exposed to or
immunized against.

The US Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC) says the variant may be
more capable than others of causing
infection in people who have previously
had COVID-19 and/or who have been
vaccinated against it.

COVID-19 cases by variant, as of August 2023. Image:

Our World in Data

Where has it been

found?
The variant has been detected in a number
of countries so far, including Israel,
Denmark, the UK, the US, South Africa,
Switzerland, Thailand, Australia, Japan
and South Korea. It’s unlikely to be limited
just to these countries, though, as varying
capabilities in genomic sequencing around
the world mean it may not have been
picked up yet elsewhere.

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What is the World Economic

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Initial evidence shows Pirola is not causing

more severe illness and that existing tests
and medications used for COVID-19 are
effective. Pirola may however be more
capable of causing infection and evading
vaccines. Scientists are evaluating the
effectiveness of the forthcoming, updated
COVID-19 vaccines. Recommendations will
be updated as more evidence becomes
available and for the time being

For the moment, Pirola accounts for a tiny

proportion of the cases currently, with
variants including Eris and Fornax among
the dominant forms around the world. And
while in the US there has been a steady
uptick of COVID related hospital
admissions rates remain relatively low
compared to other times during the
pandemic with fewer people in the
intensive care units.

Cuba has one of the highest coronavirus vaccination

rates worldwide, as of March 2023. Image: Statista

Healthcare systems around the world are

still feeling the impact of the pandemic,
however, and ensuring we are prepared for
the next one is high on government
agendas. There was a high-level meeting
dedicated to pandemic preparedness at
the United Nations General Assembly in
September, for example.

And the World Economic Forum’s Health

and Healthcare Strategic Outlook sets out
a vision for transforming health systems
by 2035 based on four strategic pillars of
equitable access and outcomes,
healthcare systems transformation,
technology and innovation, and
environmental sustainability.

Have you read?

COVID-19 is no longer a global health

emergency. Here's what it means

Achieving COVID-19 vaccine equity

means overcoming hesitancy

Here's how much immunity we get after

a COVID-19 infection

What’s happening with

vaccines?
The make-up of COVID-19 vaccines has
been updated since they were first rolled
out to better reflect the most commonly
circulating variants – or those of concern –
at the time. Two major vaccine
manufacturers say their updated COVID-19
vaccines are capable of generating a
strong response against Pirola.

Several countries around the world are

beginning their seasonal rollout of
vaccines to at-risk populations, and in
England, the vaccination programme has
been brought forward “as a precautionary
measure”.

It is also important to note that, unlike in

the early days of the pandemic, there is a
lot more immunity to the virus within the
population based on exposure. In general,
our immunity is based on a combination of
vaccines and prior infection. And the CDC
says there is evidence existing antibodies
do have an effect against Pirola.

That said, vaccines do add an important

level of protection to older and more
vulnerable populations and people should
come forward for vaccinations when they
are offered.

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