Misr University for Science and Technology

College of Business, Economics

and Information Systems

Applied Statistics
STS 301

Lecture (4)
Spring, 2018
 Outline
2

 Multiplication Rule.
 Independence

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 Revision
3
 P    0
 PS  1
 0  P  A  1
  
P AC  P  S   P  A   1  P  A 

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 P  A B   P  A  P  B   P  A B 

 P  A B C   P  A  P  B   P C   P  A B 
 P A C  PB C  P A B C

 
P  A  B   P  A  P  A B   P A B c 
 
P  B  A  P  B   P  A B   P Ac B 
 P B c c

A  P  A B  1 P  A B
c

 P B c c

A  P  A B  1 P  A B
c

STS 301, Lecture 4 4 .

 Special Case
• If A B
P  A B   P  A , P  A B  P B

Mutually Exclusive Events:

• If A B    P  A B  0
P  A  B   P  A
P  B  A  P  B 
PB A  P  A  P  B 

STS 301, Lecture 4 5 .

 Independence
If two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of either of them has no
relation to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the other,
that is the probability that both A and B will occur is equal
to the product of their individual probabilities which
implies:
𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 . 𝑷(𝑩

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 Independence
7

We can redefine independence in terms of conditional probabilities:

Two events A and B are if and only

if
P ( A | B)  P( A) if P( B)  0
and
P ( B | A)  P( B) if P( A)  0

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

Example
Given 𝑃(𝐴 = 0.5 and 𝑃(𝐴 𝑈 𝐵 = 0.6, find 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴 If
1) A and B are independent
Solution
1) A and B are independent
P  A  B P  A P  B 
P  B | A    P  B
P  A P  A

P ( AUB )  P( A)  P( B) - P( A  B)
 P ( A)  P( B) - P( A) P( B)

P ( AUB )  P( A)  P( B)(1- P( A))

0.6 = 0.5  0.5 P( B)
P ( B )  0.2  P ( B | A)  P( B)  0.2
STS 301, Lecture 4 8 .
 The Multiplicative Rule for
Intersections
• For any two events, A and B, the
probability that both A and B occur is
P(A B) = P(A)P(B|A) or P(B)P(A|B)

• If the events A and B are independent, then

the probability that both A and B occur is
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

STS 301, Lecture 4 9 .

 Example
10

A box contains 2 red balls, 3 green balls,

and 5 blue balls. If we select 2 balls. Find the
probability of selecting: (with replacement,
and without replacement):

(1)2 blue balls.

(2)A blue and then a red ball.
(3)A green and then a blue ball.

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 2 2 4
𝑅 𝑃 𝑅𝑅 = 𝑃 𝑅 𝑃 𝑅 = × =
10 10 100
2 3 6
𝐺 𝑃 𝑅𝐺 = 𝑃 𝑅 𝑃 𝐺 = × =
10 10 100
2 5 10
𝐵 𝑃 𝑅𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑅 𝑃 𝐵 = × =
10 10 100
R
3 2 6
𝑅 𝑃 𝐺𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐺 𝑃 𝑅 = × =
10 10 100
3 3 9
G 𝐺 𝑃 𝐺𝐺 = 𝑃 𝐺 𝑃 𝐺 = × =
10 10 100
3 5 15
𝐵 𝑃 𝐺𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐺 𝑃 𝐵 = × =
B 10 10 100
2 5 10
𝑅 𝑃 𝐵𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝑅 = × =
10 10 100
5 3 15
𝐺 𝑃 𝐵𝐺 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐺 = × =
10 10 100
5 5 25
𝐵 𝑃 𝐵𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 = × =
10 10 100

STS 301, Lecture 4 11 .

 Solution with replacement
12

Since the first ball is being replaced

before the second ball is selected, the events
are independent.

a. P(blue and blue) = P(B) · P(B) = 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25

b. P(blue and red) = P(B) · P(R) = 0.5 ∗ 0.2 = 0.1

c. P(green and blue) = P(G) · P(B) = 0.3 ∗ 0.5 = 0.15

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 2 1 2
𝑅2\R1 𝑃 𝑅1𝑅2 = 𝑃 𝑅1 𝑃 𝑅2\R1 = × =
10 9 90
2 3 6
𝐺2\R1 𝑃 𝑅1𝐺2 = 𝑃 𝑅1 𝑃 𝐺2\R1 = × =
10 10 90
2 5 10
𝐵2\R1 𝑃 𝑅1𝐵2 = 𝑃 𝑅1 𝑃 𝐵2\R1 = × =
10 9 90
R1
3 2 6
𝑅2\G1 𝑃 G1𝑅2 = 𝑃 G1 𝑃 𝑅2\G1 = × =
10 9 90
G1 3 2 6
𝐺2\G1 𝑃 𝐺1𝐺2 = 𝑃 𝐺1 𝑃 𝐺2\G1 = × =
10 9 90
3 5 15
B1 𝐵2\G1 𝑃 𝐺1𝐵2 = 𝑃 𝐺1 𝑃 𝐵2\G1 = × =
10 9 90
2 5 10
𝑅2\B1 𝑃 𝐵1𝑅2 = 𝑃 𝐵1 𝑃 𝑅2\B1 = × =
10 9 90
5 3 15
𝐺2\B1 𝑃 𝐵1𝐺2 = 𝑃 𝐵1 𝑃 𝐺2\B1 = × =
10 9 90
5 4 20
𝐵2\𝐵1 𝑃 𝐵1𝐵2 = 𝑃 𝐵1 𝑃 𝐵2\𝐵1 = × =
10 9 90
STS 301, Lecture 4 13 .
 The solution without replacement
14

Since the first ball is not replaced

before the second ball is selected, the
events are dependent.
a. P(blue and blue) = 𝑃(𝐵1B2
= 𝑃(𝐵1 · 𝑃(𝐵2\B1 = 5/10 × 4/9 = 2/9

b. P(blue and red) = 𝑃(𝐵1𝑅2

= 𝑃(𝐵1 · 𝑃(𝑅2\B1 = 5/10 × 2/9 = 1/9

c. P(green and blue) = 𝑃(𝐺1B2

= 𝑃(𝐺1 · 𝑃(𝐵2\G1 = 3/10 × 5/9 = 1/6
STS 301, Lecture 4 .
 Example
15

Suppose that a lamp box containing 20 lamps, of which 5

are defective. If 2 lamps are selected at random and removed from
the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the
probability that both lamps are defective?
Solution
4/19 D2/D1
5/20 D1
15/19 G2/D1
15/20 G1 5/19 D2/G1
14/19 G2/G1
P ( D1 D2 )  P ( D1 ) P ( D2 | D1 )  5 / 20  4 / 19  1/ 19
STS 301, Lecture 4 .
 Example
16

One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second
bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from
the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Solution
6/9 B2/B1 drawing a black ball from bag 2
3/7 B1 P (B 2 )  P ( B 2 B 1 )  P (B 2 W 1 )
3/9 W2/B1  P ( B ) P( B | B )  P (W ) P ( B | W )
1 2 1 1 2 1
4/7 W1 5/9 B2/W1
 3/ 7  6/ 9  4/ 7  5/ 9  0.6
4/9 W2/W1

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 Example

A survey of students in Information system,

Business and Accounting departments was taken,
giving the following results:
Male (M) Female (F)
Business (B) 250 190 440
Accounting (A) 140 120 260
Information System (I) 110 90 200
500 400 900

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 If we select a random student, what is the
probability that this student will be:

 From Business department.

 From Accounting department and male.
 From Information System or female.
 From Business and Accounting. (What kind of event?)
 From Business or Accounting.
 If the student is from information system, what is the
probability that he is male.
 From Business department, given that she is female.

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 Solution
19

 From Business department:

𝑃(𝐵 = 250/900 = 5/18

 From Accounting department and male:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝑀 = 140/900 = 7/45

 From Information System or female:

𝑃(𝐼 𝑈 𝐹 = 𝑃(𝐼 + 𝑃(𝐹 – 𝑃(𝐼 ∩ 𝐹
= 200/900 + 400/900 – 90/900 = 510/900 = 17/30

 From Business and Accounting. (What kind of event?)

𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 = 0 (𝑴𝒖𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝑬𝒙𝒄𝒍𝒖𝒔𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝑬𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔
STS 301, Lecture 4 .
 20

 From Business or Accounting:

𝑃(𝐵 𝑈 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐴 = 440/900 + 260/900
= 700/900 = 7/9

 If the student is from information system, what is the probability

that he is male:
𝑃(𝑀 / 𝐼 = 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐼 / 𝑃(𝐼 = 110/200 = 11/20

 From Business department, given that she is female:

𝑃(𝐵 / 𝐹 = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐹 / 𝑃(𝐹 = 190/400 = 19/40

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

 Assignment
21

1. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies.
The probability that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the
probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an
injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate
independently.

2. A machine produces parts that are either good (90%), slightly defective (2%),
or obviously defective (8%). Produced parts get passed through an automatic
inspection machine, which is able to detect any part that is obviously defective
and discard it. What is the quality of the parts that make it through the inspection
machine and get shipped?

STS 301, Lecture 4 .

3. A box contains 20 balls. Assume that 5 balls are white. Four balls are selected
at random, without replacement:
a) What is the probability that all four of the selected balls are white?
b) What is the probability that at least one of the selected balls is not white?

4. An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is
selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected
and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these:
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

STS 301, Lecture 4 22 .

5. State which events are independent and which are dependent:
a. Tossing a coin and drawing a card from a deck.
b. Drawing a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then drawing a second ball.
c. Getting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car.
d. Driving on ice and having an accident.
e. Having a large shoe size and having a high IQ.
f. A father being left-handed and a daughter being left-handed.
g. Smoking excessively and having lung cancer.
h. Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and smoking an excessive amount
of cigarettes.

STS 301, Lecture 4 23 .

 Examples and Exercises from the text book
24

Examples in P. 148, P. 150.

Exercises P. 152, No. 3

Examples in P. 153
Exercises P. 153: No. 11, 12, 17, 20

Exercises P. 166: No. 23, 24, 27,

The deadline is 22/3/2018

STS 301, Lecture 4 .