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Pakistan and The Shanghai Cooperation or
Pakistan and The Shanghai Cooperation or
Pakistan and The Shanghai Cooperation or
51-60
© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program
ISSN: 1653-4212
*
Rizwan Zeb is Benjamin Meaker Visiting Professor in Politics at the Institute for
Advanced Studies and Charles W allace Visiting Fellow at the Governance Research
Center, Department of Politics, University of Bristol, UK. H e is also Senior Research
Analyst at the Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan. T he views expressed
here are author’s own and do not represent those of the Institute for Advanced Studies of
the University of Bristol, or the Institute of Regional Studies. T his article is a revised, up
dated and bit extended version of an article Pakistan’s Bid for SCO Membership that was
published in Central A sia-Caucasus A nalyst, July 26 2006.
1
Major Jefferson T urner, “W hat is Driving India’s and Pakistan’s Interest in Joining the
Shanghai Cooperation O rganization?” Strategic Insight 4, 8 (August 2005).
52 Rizwan Zeb
leading terrorist nations in the world.” It seems that the SCO is set to
play a major role in the emerging geo-political fault lines in the region,
and indeed, in the world.2
Pakistan, which currently is an observer, cannot remain distant from
such an important organization. A number of geo-political and geo-
economical realities necessitate that Islamabad should make every effort
to join this group. In this regard, the idea put forward by President
Musharraf of using Pakistan as an energy corridor for the SCO member
countries merits serious attention.
T his article analyses the reasons why Pakistan should be considered
an ideal candidate for SCO membership. Although the SCO has clearly
stated that it does not plan to accept new members in the near future,3
this should not discourage observer countries from pursuing their case for
membership, especially if this is to the ultimate benefit of both candidate
and member countries. T o better understand and analyze this, the article
begins with an overview of the SCO , the post 9/ 11 developments, how
the SCO countries reacted to it, and Pakistan’s potential role in the
emerging geo-political and geo-economical landscape in the region.
During the third summit in Almaty in June-July 1998, the primary focus
was on Afghanistan, the T aliban, religious radicalism and terrorism. T he
fourth summit was held in Bishkek just after the American-led N AT O
intervention in Yugoslavia on August 25, 1999. Moscow and Beijing
opposed this intervention, as they feared similar actions could be taken in
their own backyards. Since it lacked a UN mandate, both termed the US’
involvement as being “threatening and alarming for the international
system.”6 It was also around this time that the Shanghai 5 member
countries started toying with the idea of a revival of the Silk Road,7 and
subsequently increased interdependence in the trade and economic
spheres. During the fifth summit held in December 2000 Uzbekistan was
added as the sixth member of the organization.
T he transformation from the Shanghai 5 into the Shanghai
Cooperation O rganisation occurred as a result of a declaration signed in
June, 2001 in Shanghai by all five heads of state and the new member
Uzbekistan. At that same summit another important document was also
signed—T he Shanghai Convention on the Fight Against T errorism,
Separatism and Extremism. It has been appropriately pointed out that the
timing of the agreement, just three months prior to the tragedy of
September 11, also made the SCO the pioneer organization in fighting
terrorism on the international level.8 Finally, in June 2002 the Charter of
the SCO was signed at a meeting in St. Petersburg between the heads of
the SCO member states.9
the border areas would not attack each other, notify the other side of planned large-scale
military exercises, invite observers from the other side to military manoeuvres and
exercises, and to encourage friendly contacts among the military personnel. For details
see, Rizwan Zeb, “China and Central Asia,” Regional Studies 23, 4 (Autumn 2005): 28.
6
Ibid.
7
Major Jefferson T urner, “W hat is Driving India’s and Pakistan’s Interest in Joining the
Shanghai Cooperation O rganization?”
8
For details see the SCO website, <www.sectsco.org/ html/ 00035.html> (O ctober 16 2006).
9
Rizwan Zeb, “China and Central Asia,” p. 22-23.
10
Rizwan Zeb, “USA and Central Asia and the Caucasus,” Regional Studies 22, 1 (W inter
2003-04).
11
Charles W illiam Mayes, “America Discovers Central Asia,” Foreign A ffairs (March/
April 2003): 129.
13
For details see, Rizwan Zeb, “Russia and Central Asia,” Spot Light on Regional A ffairs,
(N ov-Dec 2004).
14
Stephen Blank, “T he Shanghai Cooperation O rganization and Its Future,” Central A sia
Caucasus A nalyst, May 22 2002.
15
Major Jefferson T urner, “W hat is Driving India’s and Pakistan’s Interest in Joining the
Shanghai Cooperation O rganization?”
16
Rizwan Zeb, “China and Central Asia,” pp. 23-24.
17
Ibid.
18
T he exercise had three components: (a) focus on counter-terrorism (b) offshore
blockades, amphibious landings, and evacuations, and (c) live-fire exercises and joint
command procedures. Peace Mission-2005 was held under the framework of the Shanghai
Cooperation O rganisation. It is the first time that exclusively Russo-Chinese military
exercises took place under the formal auspices of the SCO .
games were also an indirect signal to the Americans that Beijing and
Moscow were securing their influence in the region by expanding the
SCO from a community of states sharing borders to a regional and
collective security system explicitly designed against the United States.19
In addition, as Stephen Blank has noted: “Although these were ostensibly
anti-terrorist exercises (…) these exercises’ scale and scope suggest a
large-scale conventional operation rather than an anti-terrorist mission.”20
T he year concluded with Uzbekistan signing an alliance treaty with
Russia signifying its further distancing from the W est.
along with Iran and India, was accepted into the SCO as an observer in
2005. H owever, many believe that the inclusion of Islamabad was only a
“show of force” by China and Russia, since this expanded the SCO to
include five nuclear powers (including the observers) encompassing
nearly half of the world’s population.23
In addition, after Pakistan's membership in the ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF), the SCO became the second security forum which
included both Pakistan and India. T hese frameworks can be used to
discuss bilateral issues between the two rivals at multiple levels on the
sidelines of official meetings. Since the initial purpose of the Shanghai 5
was to resolve border issues between China and Central Asian states, the
organisation has extensive experience in the resolution of boundary
dispute. If made members of the SCO , India and Pakistan could study
the framework used by China and the CARs for settling these types of
problems and see if they can utilize it in resolving issues such as Sir
Creek. Under the SCO framework, Pakistan could potentially expand its
defence and security relations with Russia, which have remained
underdeveloped due to the Indo-Russian strategic relationship and India-
Pakistan hostility. T he SCO may also contribute significantly to the
further development of Pakistan’s anti-terrorism capabilities, especially
through the SCO Regional Anti-terrorism Structure (RAT S). Although
Pakistan has signed bilateral anti-terrorism cooperation agreements with
some SCO member states, RAT S could help Pakistan to institutionalize
anti-terrorism cooperation in a more comprehensive manner and on a
wider scale.24
Pakistan has also helped freeze the bank accounts of Al-Q aeda and its affiliated welfare
organisations, such as the Al-Rasheed T rust and the Rabeta T rust.” For a detailed and
comprehensive account of Pakistani contribution to the W oT see; Ghani Jafar and
Rizwan Zeb, ”Pakistan: Countering Global T errorism,” IRS, Islamabad, 2006.
23
W illy Lam, “H u’s Central Asian Gamble to Counter the U.S. Containment Strategy,”
China Brief 5, 15 (2005).
24
Fazlur Rehman, “Pakistan Embraces the Shanghai Spirit,” Institute of Strategic Studies,
Islamabad,
<www.issi.org.pk/ journal/ 2005_files/ no_3/ articles?a2.html#top> (inaccesible on N ovember
25 2006).
31
Aftab Kazi, “Pivotal Pakistan: GCAP and the Geopolinomics of Central Asia’s
T raditional Indus Basin Corridor”.
C onclusions
W ashington is closely monitoring the emergence of the SCO as a
regional as well as a global player. As noted by Jefferson T urner: “T he
implications of the SCO becoming a regional and global powerhouse
should concern U.S. policy makers. An SCO expansion to include other
regional states risks adding unsettled “frozen conflicts” into the harmony
of the organization’s achievements in economic and security agreements.
Adding new members also increases the risks of bringing the SCO into
direct confrontation with U.S. foreign policy interests in Central Asia.”33
H owever the prospects of any direct confrontation or clash between the
SCO and the U.S. are remote. Indeed, the SCO has emphasized that it is
not against any other country or power.
T he recent SCO summit is a hallmark event and will have long
lasting implications. It has also set the future course for the organization
and its member countries. Pakistan, in keeping with geo-political and
geo-economic reasons, cannot ignore these developments, which will
fundamentally affect Pakistan’s regional interests. President Musharraf
has eloquently presented Pakistan’s case for membership to the SCO .
Indeed, his offer of using Pakistan as an energy corridor deserves deeper
analysis and thought by all concerned. H owever, membership may not be
imminent for Pakistan, as it has a lot to do on a number of fronts such as
terrorism, human, economic and social development.34 Although
Islamabad no longer supports the T aliban in Afghanistan and is an active
member of the alliance against terror, it is also home to a number of
extremist groups that have links with certain Central Asian groups and
the leaderships of those countries would like Islamabad to do more. T here
are reports that at least a few of them still suspect that Islamabad is not
doing everything it counter these. T his trend can have a negative impact
on any bid for SCO membership by Islamabad.
Some Central Asian states are also dissatisfied with Pakistan’s efforts
to curb the remnants of the T aliban and Al-Q aeda in Afghanistan, while
others have expressed their concerns over its support for U.S. foreign
policy in Afghanistan.35 Islamabad has to seriously review its policy
options and available choices in this regard. Most important is to focus on
32
Jamshed Ayaz Khan, “Pakistan’s Perspective of the Central Asian Security and the role
of the SCO ”.
33
Major Jefferson T urner, “W hat is Driving India’s and Pakistan’s Interest in Joining the
Shanghai Cooperation O rganization?”
34
Rizwan Zeb, “Pakistan’s Bid for SCO Membership: Prospects and Pitfalls”.
35
Major Jefferson T urner, “W hat is Driving India’s and Pakistan’s Interest in Joining the
Shanghai Cooperation O rganization?”
improving its relations with Moscow. T here are reports that in the past,
Moscow has either not supported Islamabad’s entry into the organization,
or wanted both India and Pakistan to be admitted at the same time. T he
recent improvement in Islamabad-Moscow relations is a good sign.
Moscow and Islamabad have to work together to make sure that the
chemistry that exists between the two Presidents materializes into a solid
relationship. Moscow is too important to be ignored.
Improvement in Pakistan-India relations and Pakistan-Afghanistan
relations is also important, for a number of reasons. If Pakistan becomes
an energy corridor, it has to have good relations with Afghanistan and
India. India cannot extend its trade to Central Asia without a friendly
Pakistan, and unless both Pakistan and India have a good working
relationship, Afghanistan cannot become a stable and viable state.36 Bad
relations not only impacts them but also has a negative effect on the
SCO ’s potential to grow beyond the Central Asian region.37
O ne keen Pakistani observer of regional and global developments has
rightly pointed out, “there is no chance of militaristic N AT O vs. SCO
battle lines in the region. But inevitably there will be rivalry and
competition for sources of energy and pipelines that carry it.”38 T his
increases the need for Pakistan, a designated U.S. non-N AT O ally, to
make correct decisions.
36
Lately both N ew Delhi and Islamabad have been accusing each other of meddling in the
affairs of Afghanistan. Islamabad claims that N ew Delhi is using its consulates in
Afghanistan to fuel insurgencies in the Pakistani Provinces of Baluchistan and the
N orthwest Frontier Province.
37
T he author is thankful to CEFQ ’s reviewer for bringing this point to his attention.
38
T anvir Ahmad Khan, “India, Pakistan and the Shanghai Spirit,” Daily T imes, June 23
2006, <www.dailytimes.com.pk/ print.asp?page=2006\ 06\ 23\ story_23-6-2006_pg3_2>
(O ctober 5 2006).