THE WEEK'S BEST IDEAS Randomness HOW TO CREATE COINCIDENCE i i esse) ie. meantee et tema, Segre omct emusmgtinie ‘Sntosy m ‘Seta nay ‘Minton sion svar mote Rotten ‘secon eget om (tneamayrrormans Crees wn enact NewScientist ‘Why west art pin down mala p& NEINS TECHNOLOGY EDITORIAL (an rescue rats replace sniffer dogs? 21 Theol font weatment for Smartcallentescutwaiingtime 2 ralariacoststoo much for mary ofthe What arss about astfood choice 23 eopleatrsk. Butthereisasolution 5 rwention:howtorow smoothly 23 prRONT ‘TRENDS: EMERGENCY ALERTS Uslftsnudearexpertsancionson _Callphonesthatknow where you are Indi; global wamingnotcausing and Wsthat with ontoiswealers ‘morehurrcanes;row over asbestos ban; afeaboon otheemergency series 24 ‘ica atthe heart of wor trade; haf of premature babies have disables; ‘mostpowerul Ml scanner unveiled; from spacplanetospacebomber 6 ral Israndomnessrealormerey the ‘hye ar lsingthefight ‘8 Invention ofoursupestiousminds? 28 Malaria goes urban 9 WWHATARETHE CHANCES? Gpingwolfoverlarge predatows 10 ‘otlerynumbers, footballer’ birthdays eae ece —'mandilerhones areal inked, Vaccineshoragerassbiedfutiveat 11 Hyou know where to look » Wind eneray could powertheworld 12 THE JUMBLE CRUNCHER Flightless brdsaren'tsodumb 4 Fancy upgradingtoa quantum Younglupitermigatedtowardssun 15 — compute ustadd.aspo of Uishipshotwastetonyrgyatan 15 fandomness 36 Forecasting sock markets 6 a ‘MENDING BROKEN HEARTS Easter islanders victims ofcicumstarxe; Anew treatment for heart disease Imanayssttsmuselendcuta. | @npullpatents bac fom he bik cE eerie Caan wr ofdeth bterstsarehigh 38 Saving the wera om hee burps Keepinghearts supple: pulling re ‘giant; acid oceans on Mars B ‘Signals from the rat's brain will help rescuers locate earthquake survivors buried in the wreckage of buildings” How ats ould replaces dogs, page ONTHECOER Randomness, page78 Stem cal for the ear, page 8 Who need profits? pages? Hides secret ii page ns $e icerandomt p28 REGU! LARS therushtowin thexprzet 1° Dangers of vory trading the citemma of deafness; unreliable centaintes 26 ‘WTERVIEW Vitoria Hale not only setup the Us's fist not-for prof rug company, she also persuaded theindusty to give hersome Pours ofthelrundeveloped drugs. 42 Washington diary: Bush warms te climate change nd pay cuts for top researchers 5 NIGH 45 HISTORIES AsGemanycameunde attack, Hier hada secetweapon that kept him safe fom lied bombs 46 Why we cream; man and ‘uperanthropoog MMR cise, Spence'slegaey; (C'sheroes. lus: science esay competition winners 48 FEEDRAOK 2 THE LAsTWORD B THE INSIDER: CANADA Itisno mean eat forginga Unique centificidentiy with theUSonyour doorstep 50 00s, su 2ssepbr 2004 Manse |3os iteennaten ‘Shes Somers = Sanco ‘eee, {thao ita Foesnoeincae terete Sst See Sois.. Ene rn — fecnennate ‘ena oe vn enact a Healthy investment There's a bargain on offer, butwe have to grab itnow (ONE rare piece of good news about malaria Is that we havea very successful drug for ‘treatingit.Artemisinin,an extract ofthe sweet ‘wormuood plant, has been used in traditional Chinese medicine for centuries to treat fever, Derivatives oft, taken for about three days, make very effectiveanti-malarials “That these compounds work is nolonger Indoubt, noristhe futility of sticking with chloroquine, the traditional treatment. ‘Over the pasts years the malaria parasites! resistance to chloroquine has rendered the be second only tosmokingasa man-made ‘use of lung cancer roducersand ‘srs of whit asbestos aru thatit is Nell Marlow of Queen's Medical Centre inNottingham, UK, wholed thelatest phase of the study, is more upbeat. “Sixty per centof children arehealehy from psychological perspective,” he sys. "We must be sure wedon't prolong life where there's futile outcome, butfermany families, ‘heoutcome is good” ores une lose bes aro inated, and that wit bests fibres ar breathed cut more quit than other types. Thisweek the president of the Montrat-tased hysotlenstitats, ‘Gement Godbout, chimed that white asbestos “shoms no unaccptble isk forhuman heath when corey sed” But ceri asin the Rottardam convertion’ sertarat take a ieent view. Tey say that alors of asbestos are arnogeic and there Isnosate dose. Mega-scanner THE worl’ most powerful MRL scanner was unveied his week atthe Univesity offline inchicag. “The sunnerhasag.-tesla magne sitimes as strong the thagnetsin hospital scanners. ‘Whereas standard scanners pek up signals from thelydrogen ‘atoms in water molecules, high-field-strength scanners canresolvesignals from other tlements such as sodium, phosphorus, carbon, nitrogen ‘and oxygen. This meansthey ‘canreveal fir more information ‘about living bodies, The Chicago team, led by Fred Thulbom, hhopesto gain new insights into brain disorders such asstrokes, Alzheimers and autism, Thereare cancers about safety, though. One study found ‘that mice exposed toa igtesla field ranaround incircles for several minutesafterwards, ‘among otherthings (New Scientist, 18May 2002, p12)."Wehaveto balance the useful information ‘youccan get rom high magnetic fields with the possible dangers, ‘which we just don't know” says Peter Mansfield ofthe University ‘of Nottingham, UK, who won a Nobel prize last year forhis work ‘on MRL technology. HURRICANE CYCLE YET TO REACH ITS PEAK Hurianebatered residents of ho Caribbean ide and Alabama ae facinganother 10 120 bad yearsof high urtianeactity~ and ts not uo to global warming. ‘Hurricanes have been onthe Incase cv th past decade as part of natural mul-deada ce Ww Scents 2 September 2003, 8). Hurcanes are mori to omen the Atiantic isa, asitwasin the 950s to 1960s. Thedeades sinc the 19605 aw fewer hurcanes,butumbersave sen since 1995 and may not have reed ‘thepreied pakyet. This hurscne sion bas received more attonon manly becuse many huricanes over the stew years hve led to make Tandft inthe US. "ook at tho Caribbsen andits a ifferent story, says Alberto Msts tuner fom the National Dean and Atmospheric Adminisation in Ham. vn rensdenstomee Nuclear détente THEUShas agreed toliftexport restrictions that prevented American companies supplying India with equipment for nuclear power plants. India has assured ‘the US thatthe technologies ‘timports will not fallinto the hands of*rogue" regimes. "The US restricted exports to India following nuclear weapons tests carried outby India and Pakistan in 1998. The iting of restrictions, announced on 17 September, marks the end of the First phase of talks between the ‘wocounteiesaimedat cooperation ‘oneivilian nuclear activities, ‘Mica talasa dubious space programmes, the high-tech ‘ade and miseile defence. normal plane and carry $500 'NASAandIndi'scommercial —Mlograms of bombs o missiles to ooperationastheUSDepartment 1,000 kilometres in hous ofcommerceremovedielndlan DARPAbastaken over NASA's abortive X37 spaceplane, which “india has assured the US that looks kely tobe adapted forthe thetechnologyitimpots wil Yomtereier ek, ‘ot go to ‘rogue’ regimes” cra, launchedon the backofa rocket, that would ferry SpaceResearch Organisation from astronauts tothe International itslistoforganisationsthathave Space Station andthen glide Iyeendeemedan“unacceptable backtoLarth Before NASA nk" fordiverting technology abandoned X37 this yea, itbult tomardsdevelopmentof weapons. anunpoweredalrfrme that DARPAisnow expected touse inaerodynamic drop tests, Target Earth When theidesfaspace THEPentagonispressingshead bomber wasratsed three years veth controversial panto agoltwar greeted withdisbeliet Uevelopanuncrewedspaceplane (New Scents, 4 August 2001, thatwillukimately beabletodrop p10} ButJohnPike, an analyst bombs from the edgecfspaceon” withglobalecurityorg, saysthe targets almost anywhere on Pentagon is determined to bulld Earth. TheaimistogivetheUS _it"Theyhavea ral fascination theability tostrikeany target _withthis suborbtal glide bomber. withintwohours frombaseson They've eallylatched onto” the USmainland. ‘DARPA, the Pentagon's i research arm, last week chose four ferospacetirms to come up with preliminary designs fora rocket launched sub-orbital spaceplane called Falcon. By 2010, an early version willtravelat Mach 6and lifta500-kilogram bomb load to analiitude of100 kilometres. BY 2025, itwants to have developed Ivory plunder space programme illincrease __similaraltitudes,travellingnearly AFRICA Tatherthan Asia is now. atthe heart ofthe illegal trade {nivory. To supply it, around {400 elephants arebeing killed fortheirtusks each year Aliicanivory used tobe shipped wholesaleto HongKong, Japanand the Gulf states for ‘carving into trinkets, Now much ‘ofthe manufacturing is done inAfrica, in small markets and workshops, according totwo studies released on 16 September “Nigeria gets the worst report card, accused of trading in illegal ivory and corruption” by agencles working on behalf of ‘the Convention on Intemational ‘Trade In Endangered Species. ‘The studies azethe first systematicattemptto trackboth the supply and the demand side ‘ofthe ivory trade, They show ‘that Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and [Nigeria are among the most Important manufacturersand suppliers of illegal ivory. ‘Nigeria gets the worst report ‘card accused of increasing involvement in the illicit ivory trade, high evels of corruption ‘and the Weakest aw enforcement ‘of any country assessed, China anair-breathing hypersonic aaa Zs issingled out as the main ivory fenginethatwilltakeofflikea Bombersinspace = se wn enact manufacturing centre for Asi, 60 SECONDS Iran defiant on enrichment Jan has ejected allt tho governing baad ofthe Intarmational Atomic Energy Agent hatitsprogamme for enriching uranium. Under the Nucor Won-Paiferation Treaty, tran allowed to enc uranium for wen pone plants, but the MEA says itshould stop as show of god fet. lanshit nuclear negtitog, Masan Rohan, wad on Sunday thatthe county wil pullout ofthe treaty it ‘the AE press its ase. Lawsuit targets Big Tobacco ‘A200 blon lst tat cul ple ‘the US tobaco industry was launched on Tuesday. Fedral prseastars representing the US Department of Juste allege that over te past five ocaes manufacturers lies tothe publicovs the dangers of smoking, and misleadingly promoted “ight” and “ow tar” cipartes sbeing safer to smoke. Toba companies, incuding Philp Morisand Ameria Tobacco, say theyll mount vigorous defence ‘psn the allegations. Rogue papaya found Genetially motted papaya tees hve bee found on eight morefams inThaliond its griasur minister Sonsak Tepsuthin announced on aay. Teiland has nat approved the commerdal growing of ny GM strains Greenpeace daimedin uy that a modified papaya foundona fam ‘ame fom ied sold a resarch station groming an experimental pot ofthe Mata, Smal ay itis not ype dear ifthe varity found on farms Istho same a thea stan. Job offer for alleged hacker Suen aston the 18-year who vl gon tial net month acased of ceating two ofthis year's most amazing computer vrs, Sasser and Nets, hasbeen offered 2 Programing jb ta computer secuty fim, Secureoint of nebo, Germany, ys asan made a mistake ‘and deserves second cones ut some security pert ay thejob offer ould encourage other ruswriters. 2S septabr200|Newsdenis |7Malarial onslaught sparks call to arms Gen LPS ‘THE world islosing the fight against malaria. Thatisthegrim picture painted by aseriesof reports on thedisease's social and economic burden. What's more, countries arefailingto switch quickly enough tothe best treatmentsas the parasite develops resistance to widely used drugs. ‘But despite the grave news, someexperts believe wearebetter placed totackle the disease than ever Witha better understanding of malara'scosts andthe best \waysto combat i researchers believe they can provide more accurate advice to governments, “We re earningfromhistony” says Melinda Moree ofthe Program, for Appropriate Technology in Health basedin Seattle, ‘Washington. “There is long-term horizon planning going on that, I Newsdent 25 eptember 2004 haven't seen before,” she says. ‘The analyses are published in a supplement ofthe american Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (vol7, supplement 2). ‘They alm that more than halfof the world’s populationisexposed tomalaria, an increase of neatly 10 percent inthe past decade. This will cut economic growth in malarial regions by more than percent per year. Mortality from the disease in Africa alone may be approaching. 3million annually almost three ‘Umes World Health Organization estimates. The discrepancy's partly the resultofthe WHO using ‘government figures that are oRten notbased oneffective monitoring orare understated for politcal ends. Nigerlain2000, for example, only reported 58 deaths from malaria, Neighbouring Niger with one-tenth the population reported over 1000 deaths. Inmany African countries only alittle overhalf the children with suspected malaria receive treatment, And of those, 84 per cent get chloroquine, even though resistanceisrfe."In many parts it {s practically ineffective, no better thana sugar pill” says Ramanan Laxminarayan of Resources for theFuturean independent research institute inWashington DC. Chloroquine treatmentis Inelfective inaround half of cases. Some places with chloroquine EO ‘Drug ae ropily sng potency resistance are onsideringaltering official guidelines to recommend sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (5/2) drugsas first-choice treatments. {At20 to25 ents perdosethese are ‘only around twice as expensive aschloroquine. But resistance is ‘already developing and the WHO now recommends artemisinin combination therapy (ACT). However, ACT is much more expensive $1t0 $250 per dose) ‘andsome governments doubt thatan early shifts worth, ‘theextracost Butanalyses ofthe Mor tan 2 ile eel sound the ord ethane by malate wssswnee mats ae As te ;, P1 vn rensenst.omsocial and economic burden of But artemisinin treatments ‘malaria suggest that delaying the — mayalso fall ifthe drugis not used switch is ultimately afalse properiy. Worryingly. artemisinin economy. Laxminarayan, for iscurrently being given widely on fexample,created a mathematical its ownbecauseonly one ‘model compare theeconomle combination therapy ina slagle impact ofswitchingdirectiyto pill hasbeen eensed. This would ACT with movingfirsttos/Pdrugs really jeopardise theeffectiveness (supplement, 187. ofthis valuable drug,” says Hefactored intheburdenof _Laxminarayan."Ithasa very high disease, including lost working chance of developing resistance” ‘me, learning time and deaths, Even when experts agree on plusthecostofadministering _thebestcourse ofaction, making Ineffectivedrugs Laxminarayan _ithappenisanother question. For says the costs of falling to ‘example, the WHO sponsored Roll switch immediatelyto ACTare _BackMalaria Partnership pledged hhugebecausemanywilldieas in Abuja, Nigeria, in1998 that reslstance grows, 60 per centofAlrican children ven whereresistanceto should be sleeping under chloroquine is initiallylow,an___mosquitonets by2005.Butin. arly switch would stillbecost- 2001 (the best available data) ‘Urban watoroles spol danger sccrngweranieaty wrannenesnerses’ — MCiller parasite follows SneMilganeconcmiscatthe Maly Rjtarget loc TroplatMedicmnesraber | theRolldackMalaris grou at people into the cities coc. cena s (vse: nse vosicare increasingly under heat from CLEAR THE SLIME, BANISH THE MOZZIES mata. ven though urban areas have tadionaly been considered emavingthe eens fom rams athe beginingof the dry season ons, recerchrs ble that andres culdbeacaspandsimplesboutadaysworkfors daze people. urbanization suming malaria ‘wayto combat mala. Teagalgunk Thay monitored he fect counting into a dt problem to. harourstarvae ofthe mosquitoes that the numb of mosquitoes tracted to ‘two years ago itasn't being ‘wansmit the dcase lighttapsandhuman bltsatright. _dlscussed at al,” says Maria Caldas Numerous ttenps to omit Vitaly no mall mosquitoes de astro of the Oficeof Population rmolaria have focused onthe mosquito appeared fore to sevenwetksin Reseach at Princeton Univers. “But lanva’s habitat. raining themarshes the ceardarea nikeamatihed but itis going to getworse and worse, ea mei tly, peiodaly Uundesredstratdhofrivet.Tnenextyex,_Oneproblemisthe rapid growth ‘emptying ish pondsin Java, and even the teamcleared the cthersteteh but | of urban populations, which are dering old ar tyres whore water lefthe fist untouched. Again mosquito increasing by about per canta year ‘accumulates in topical cteshaveall umbersplunmetedinthealgfree in sub-Saharan Aa. Around one ledtofesting reductions in malaria. zone (Proceedings ofthe Royal Society, thir ofthe population nthe region Butrunning water iarderte tackle. DO: 102096Hspb.2004 2826). ow ve in ies. Butby 2025 could ow astdy in Mexico has foased No mala outbreaks occured bbe around haf, ‘onmakingthewaterleshorpitable during the experiment, but the scale “This has very dramatic effet forlarmae.Inthedryseaon along the of caring mastoosmalltosay whether on the epidemiology of seas,” CGatinciverintheMexian stateot ——thatwasthereason, says teummenber say rg Utinger ofthe Swiss Tropical GhiagasnearGuatemals,malaiais Trevor Wiliamsoftheniertyof Medicine Institute in Baste. “Itisa mainly cried by species of Anopheles Mavarain Pamplona Spun. But non completely diferent beast to tackle.” mosquito thatbredsinrvesie pools. women the neighbouring Mian ‘There used to be very fe places Theinsee’saquaticlanaesheltrin sate of axa have adopted the {for mosquitoes to breed in an urban and eatthe green alga Sprogy. ‘edinique.Tishasled "a damatic setting, ay aldae. But thats no Usinggarden rakes andretting, _rducion nthe numb of loa cases Guilrmo Bondaf theCentreferthe of malaa", saysWiliams."Suies of “Two years ago the problem lewestgtion of Halria in Topacha, mai in that region had to be Srila naa want bang hagas and colleagues dearedthe canceled because therewere no ass ape oma Silomerestetdofriver to evaluate” Debora Makeie discussed at ll. Butitis going to getworse and worse” wn enact Jongor true As urban areas spravd ‘outwards, people digholesfor ris, hich sl with water Whats more, Urbanite have a lower resistance ‘malaria than rural populations. ‘But although urban malaria presents new problems, may also be containable,Utzinger and his co- authors reviewed research on urban ‘malaria and conclude that tackling ‘mosquito larvae willbe more effective than in rural areas. Drainingan urban ‘water source willimpact more people, for example, because clty-cnelers lve dose together (American Journ of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, val 7, supplernent2, p18) Draining breeding sites and Kiting larvae by introducing fish ould be ver effective, he says. But these ‘approaches have not been popular for ‘more than 50 yeas s spraying with DOT became the catch-all strategy. (ida and he colleagues report the resultsof an eight-year project to control urban malaria in Dares Salaam, Tanzania (supplement 2, 103. Tey found that education and ‘community efforts to reduce mosquito breeding sits as wellas developing local moda serves reduced malaria Infections among cilren from Goto Mpercent. Helen ilps @ 2S septmber200|NewsdenitCrying wolf over predator attacks ‘RANA GOSLNE IWisoneofthe oldest conflicts between man and beast: farmers Killing marauders suchas wolves, ynxes, lions and leopards ‘odefend their livestock from the predators. Tals anclent tension as Increased as people have encroached ever furtherintothe wilderness, and many predators have been driven tothe verge of extinetionasaresult- Wolves ‘were nearly wiped outin the US Inthelastcentury leaving just 4000 today. Norway has considered culling up toa quarter of the 80 oro wolves ia southem Scandinavia toappease farmers who claim they are killing thelr sheep. And numbers of Arica’ great predators, notably lions, cheetahs and Iunting dogs, rein free fallas they are shot, polsoned and snared by people with whom they come into conflict (New Scientist, 20 September 2003, p36) Yel the slaughter may be unnecessary. The first worldwide review ofthe effect of predators hhas found litte evidence that they havea significant impacton livestock "There's this cultural hangover that says predators are bad and killing thems the only way to deal withthe problem,” sayslead author Kate Graham of ‘the University of Stning, UK, -utthe study showed that there is otenough data todraw any flem conclusions about the impacts of predators on livestock, orto evaluate any benefits from culling ‘them,"Wefust haven't gathered theevidencetosay that there isa zeal problem,” Grahamsays. The few studies that do bear scrutiny show that inareashome toanimalssuchaslions, wolves, Jaguarsand nov leopards, the predatorsare responsible forno ‘more than3 percent oflivestock losses.Andthe numberof predators na partcularares seems tohave litte effecton the numberof livestock killed (Biological Conservation, DOT: 10.1016/j bioeon 2004, 06.006) Adrian Treves ofthe Wildlife Conservation Society in New York founda similarresult when he reviewed case studies afculls of predators including cougars, wolves and bears. Killing the animals cut livestock osses on only one-third franchesand {farms,andany benefit generally lasted no more thana year. ‘These results will be published in abooknext year."Wejust don't know very much about individual predators behaviour around lUvestock,” Treves says, “which really hampers ourability to design non lethal controls” ‘Graham's review found that redsor—omanation Latin dnd Vireo wey Poet of sour retort Somteoned tnd ep cote a6 tee Yuleatle nea. eye ate Ws ‘mgt Naren Glades te 3 woleine lle toa se a ir ete Sadi Seep = Need tare Cauenashep 02-05 aed tne aie ‘ate aw at etlint——RethAnefo ‘ate om 101 Newser |25Sepleber2004 ‘There's this cultural hangover atsays predators are bad and killing them isthe only al with the problem attention often focuses on the ‘most conspicuous predator, and few studies account for the ‘numberof livestock that fall prey tocther predatorsor disease. Forexample, in Spala hunters persecute the threatened red kite because itkills rabbits ‘But2¥ other predator species eat rabbitstoo. One tudy reviewed found that just percent ofcattle in Zimbabwe succumbed to predators, while23 percent died from disease. However, ranchers till ‘that predators havea huge impact, and sometimes with good reason, sayslion expert Bruce Pattersonof the Held Museum ‘of Natural History in Chicago. For while most wolves and cougars stayaway rom people and thelr property, some lionsare habitual livestock raiders, And while lions sn Kenya ust 24 percentof ‘Amaigedklor cattleherds each year, costing ranches about $0000 2.6 per centof their income, thatisno comfort to subsistence farmers ‘with usta fewanimals, who ‘muy lose thelr entire herd, People'satitucestolions are more likely tobe based on their ‘community’sexperlence than scientificreports, he says. Conservation biologists and ‘wildlife managers agree thatthe ‘way to resolve these conflicts isto start generating accuratemodels ‘of what carnivores are eating, and then try totum theanimals' attention away from livestock. By exploiting that knowledge, it should be possibletofind ways to help people tolerate the presence cof large predators. Tofind outmoreabout the Impacts of predators, Andrew Beckerman, aco-authoraf the review now at the University of Sheffield, UK, would liketo see controlled experimentson ‘managed ranches and wildlife reserves. He says this may reveal ‘ways to keep both livestockand predators safe. © men rensenis.omiz Bentgrass breaks . . cs record for spread Lack of vaccine raises pecan of modified genes fears of flupandemic = srse:"=,.. . GGEWENCALY modified grass con FEARSthatbirdflucould mix toprevent this, the World Health contaminate other plants over withhumanflutocreateahighly Organization says people most 20 klometres away, rising new infectious, deadly new strain atriskof.o-infection should be ‘questions about justhaw far heightened last woekafter given udrugsor vaccinated ‘modified plant genescanspread. -Thullandreported thathuman against human flu, Fawstudieshave iwestigated _fluiscirculatinginareas where ‘TheThai health ministry ‘gene flow from raps, GM or there havebeen renewed bird flu announced ast week that it will otherwise atlstancesofmorethan outbreaks in poultry-The country vaccinate poultry workers in ‘afewrhundred metres. Radish and doesnot have enough human flu affected areas, after human fla sunflower genes have been found to vaccineto protectall workers _cases in two districts where there travel lometre, squash (ormarrom) againstsimultaneous infection have been ecentoutbreaks of ‘genes kilometes,and canola Dbyboth viruses, HgNiin poultry. Klaus thr, (Ciseedrape)genesupto3kilometres. The HisNi bird flu that head of influenzast the WHO, ow researchers from the rampagedacrosseastAsia last sayseveryone wha keeps backyard, Us government'Environmental yearismaking acomeback with poultry inareas where there has Protection Agency(EPA)havefound outbreaks in poultry inThalland, _beenarecent HsNioutbreak that aeeping bentgrcx modified —_Vietnamand also Malaysia, could beatrisk to rest herbiddes such as Roundup whichhadnothad any outbreaks But vaccinatingall such people ‘an pollinate other grasses up to ——_untilrecently.InThailand and —_inThailandand Vietnam would 2Mlometres away. “To my best Vietnam,HsNihaskilledatleast_ takemore than hal thisseason's knowledge, thisisthelongestdistance four peopleinrecentmonths, ___tolal productionof vaccine. reportedforGM pollen dispersal,” __butsofartherearenoreportsofit And Thailand has only 100,000 saysDavidQuistoftheUnivesilyot _spreadingfromhumantohuman. doses of donated flu vaccine. Cliforia, Berkeley, whohasstudied ———Thebigfearisthat theHsN1—“Wedonothavesufflcent vaccine hemisphere, andall the vaccine ‘thesproadof Mmalzegones. vias ould tum intoa strain topreventco-irculation,"says_ manufactured sofaris going to UdiaWatrudand collegues capable ofcausinga human Prasert Thongcharoen of Mahidol rich countries there.“Thereis fromthe EPKNatlonalHealthand pandemic, eitherby mutatingor _Universityin Bangkok,amember no excess," saysStohe. “There is no Environmental ects Research bypickingup genes rom human ofthe WHO'sexpertcommittee vaccine availablefor Vietnam.” Laboratory in Coral, Oregon, fluviruses. The lattercan happen on viraldiseases ‘What vaccine isavallablein studied feldsthathavebeen growing if peopleare infected by both ‘The reason isthat theffu Thailand will go to places with Gtvaretes of aeeping bentgrass season starting inthenorthern ongoing HsNioutbreaks. But this, eae Madesin canta Oregon for vo ‘lll preventeo-nfetiononly if yeas. The clleandsoedshomvild ‘ outbreaks aedetected promptiy {passes graning ortensofilometes J tnd reported. The most recent aroundthe experimental pos, human deaths rom sNuin then grewthe sedsin greenhouses . Thailand and Vietnam occurred andtesedthe growing gasses for before the poultry outbreaks that transgenes andresstancetoRoundup. . caused them had been reported ‘They found extensive gene pe ee ‘alternative way to contamination up t2 ores ss reduce co-infection would be doumnind ofthe experimental pos. ‘vaccinating poultry against HSN. Contaminated grass seeds also tured L ee £9) butThailand led thisoutlast paces 310 quer lets, wih ‘woe, partly because of evidence the most distant find klomeires => thatimperfect vaccines encourage from thesoure Poceedingsefte z Z more virulentstrains evolve National adem of cences, (yew Scents, 27 March, p). Dot oats. custo, > ‘Stohrsayssurvellance must ‘eeping Dents is popular 2 2 bbestepped up so that ifadeadly ‘with ga course managers becuseit 5 strain doesemerg, tis detected Provides uniquely smooth surface s asearly as possible togive vaccine for puting greens Weeds poll the tee 5 rmakersaheadstar "Wellhave sure, couse manages would : that much more vaccine for lke goss Wat sredstantto tach day earlier we know itis hetbicldes.FedPeore © 2 coming” DeborsMackenie © wn enact 2 Segtembert0 NewséentstEnough ie ons IPWOULDtakea wind farm. ‘thesize of Saudi Arabia, andthe ‘electricity would cost twice as ‘much asitdoes today, but theres ‘more than enough wind tomeet the world’s energy needs. This upbeatassessment of ‘wind power's potential comes from the most comprehensive study yet ofthe worlds land-based wind resources, tobe published inthe journal Energy Economics. ‘Thebad newsisthat some ofthe ‘regions possibly most inneed of energy lackusable wind. ‘Ateam led by Wim Turkenburg ‘of Utrecht University inthe [Netherlands divided the world’s Jand surface into 66,000cellsand ‘calculated the potential for wind powerineach one, The researchers ‘excluded heavily buil-up areas, nature reserves, lakes and ‘mountains. They did notexamine the potential of offshore wind farms because not enough wind: speed data is available. ‘The team assumed that wind power becomes economically viable when the average wind speed is moze than metres per second. Previous studies DOO Mes eins ave enh blind to meet etn cy nts wind to power the world ‘took 5.mettes per secondas theeatoff, but this was ‘considered unreasonable sit ‘excludes areas where wind turbines are already installed “About 20 per cent ofthe world’s land surface hasan average wind speed above the lowercut off, ‘and ifharnessed, the wind would produce about 96 petawatthours peryear, or sixtimes the world’s electricity consumption in 2001. Butthe electricity would be expensive, atstimestoday’s prices. However, the global ‘lectreity demand in 20010uld bbe met by wind farmsinan area (of 2.4 million square kilometres, about the ize of Saudi Arabia, and costing only about twice today's prices. ‘The researchers assumed that fone square kilometre could hold ‘Whore thew a wind. fourwind turbines, each witha ‘capacity of megawatt Someof electricity needs, Forinstance, Someadvances could help tolay’swindfarmshavefour _—itis3ootimesthedemandin’ _-—_-makewindenergy viable. For {Umes this density. They also eastAfricaand twice that of ‘example, itcould soon be possible accountedforlossesincurred _—_westernurope(seeGraphic)._topredictwind speeds towithin, ‘when converting wind energy Unfortuntely,somedensely 45 percentadayinadvance, Inloclectzaty, populated regions, suchas glving time foralternative power The analysis revealed that countriesin south-east Asia, sources tobe deployed ifnecessary. inmostareas oftheworldthe donot have usable wind. The InScandinavia excess energy from ‘available windenergy smore areas with the greatest potential wind s stored by usingitto pump ‘thanenoughtomeettoday’s forcheapwind powerareNorth _waterintoreservoirsandusingit and South America, western togenerate hydroelectricty when Europeand the counties ofthe needed. "I's incrediblehow much former USSR. development has been done in ‘Windenergy,however,cannot thisarea," de Vriessays."Ifwe bethesolesourceofelectricity don! tdoanything apart from, asitisa fickle resourcethatcan ‘completely die oat times. “As youexploit wind toagreater extent, matching supply and demand becomes an issue,” says team member Bert de Vries of the ‘being pessimistic, there won't be John Twidelleditorof Wind Engineering, agrees."The malts ‘are people's perceptions and planning permission, not the NationalnstituteofPublicHealthtechnology,"he says. © andthe Environment inthe Netherlands. Andextending “In most areas of the world, cree cnetiiatorstotne —eavailablewind energy is a ac expensivemodifications tothe ‘aot wind nse pete to eae consump (985) Bridsystem.“Noone knowsthe Moretharienough to meet ostof thes," deVeies says. today's electricity needs’ a ensientsom 1 Nese 23 eptember 2006They lost wings, not brain size ‘ightless birds had relatively small brains compared with iver. rained, Nowa team from theNational right? Notany more. Earthbound Museum of Natural History in bindshavebrainsjustaslargeas Washington DCand Monash theirflyingcousins, suggesting University in Melbourne, that they may notbeas Australia has used statistical dim-witted asoncethought. analysis tocompare brain size ‘Many modern birds have and body mass in 4:7=pecies of lostthe ability tofly including Living and fossilbirds Journal of penguins, kis, emusand Zoology, wl 263, P37). ostriches. Andmany species thatarenowextnet suchasthe “The study refutes the theory greatauk, dodo and Madagascan : Slephoctbinkmerealsounabie ‘atthe evolution of fight folate othesky.utprevious acompanied a relative studies had concluded that increase in brain size” usar ges, notes 1 Newser |25Sepleber2004 “The researchers found that the brain sizes of Mightless birds, relative tobody mass, are not significantly different tothose of birds that fy. Exceptions tothis rulewere the extinet fish eating great auk Pinguinusimpennis), and the kakapo rare New Zealand parrot Strigops hhabroptitus)—both of which bad relatively small brains, The team suggests thatthe kakapo has developedalarge {gastrointestinal tract for digesting {ough plantmaterial atthe expense ofbrainsize. The great ‘aukmay have grown largerto ald thermoregulation, without a proportional ncreasein brain volume. Alternatively, says team ‘member Andrew Iwaniuk, “by increasing ts body mass to an extreme level, the greatauk ‘could probably dive deeper, butasaresultcould not ly" The team proposes that birds that evolved Rightlessness dldsoslowly enough forbrain size to keep pace with body maze. The study alsorefutes the theory that theevolution of ight accompanieda relative increasein brain size. "Clearly this isnot truebased upon our comparisons” says iwaniuk “The flightless specles with relatively smaller brains actually [possess much heavier bodies, ‘sa zesull ofadaptations toa new feeding style” Itis possible that different partsofthebrainmay have changed sizeasflightlessness evolved, whileoverall relative Drain size was not affected. “Changes could be occurringin regions within thebrainorspinal cord, We usthaven’tmeasured them ye,” says Iwaniuk; “Ignoring penguins, Aightless birds fll nto two main divisions: ‘those that lost theleflight tens ‘of millions of years ago, mainly ratites,and those that became ‘ightless ess than a million years ‘ago, suchas ailsand many sland species," says omithalogist Walter Boles ofthe Australian Museura inSydney."Ttisinterestingto see that this relationship holds orboth groups” @ SOUNDBITES G6All| haveis complete despair and the clothes \'mwearing.33 Jesner Estimable, whose daughter oso cf 0 peopl iledin a after foods aged aaah sand in thewake of tpial storm leanne (@atonine, septa) G6 We founda cyber age nightmare.33 dim Puckt fe se Acton Network pata colton envconmental goupseportinga burgeonngintematonal tade'n potently hazreous econ tose, sha dared computer manor ané moe phones {the Guaranendo,2Seebes) 6's probably the worst year lve seen. Some are saying it’s the worst in 50 years. Four yeas from now there could belittle orno fishing going on by anybody. 39 Hen Malloway, oct the British Columbia Aboriginal Fisheries Commision, ferent pone nus esalmon aching Spawning grounds isyar (Wancouver Sun, 20 September) 66 [They ae] very expensive lottery tickets.39 Artur teemann, akan ct emereng medion 3 Era coo cof Medicine in Atlanta, Georgia, nthe lesving pt thane defiant ppovedy the Food and Drighdminisaton for ronal ue withaua presption ssc Pres, 1Seplembe) 6 Barrier equipment must be used.33 Susan Gard of elo Dion of Ocupatonal Health and Salty, ‘which has fined to pom im companies forallowng acts perform without ‘sing condoms, considered legal under sate employment ian that potas works fom exposure to ood o body Nuts atwork (sociated Press, 1 September) vn rensenst.omWandering Jupiter took trek towards the sun JUPITER, the king ofplanets in thesolarsystem, drifted tens of rillions of kilometres towards thesun in its youth, a new study suggests Jupiter's migration could even have helped to form the Earth The idea that planets migrate towards theirstats has received considerableattention over the past decade, thanks tothe Aiscovery ofaround.a hundred planetary systems besides our own. Most contain “hot Jupiters”- gasslants that sometimes orbit closertothelr stars than Mercury istothesun, Astronomers believe these giants formed in the old outskirts oftheir systems but moved inwardsas they lost angular momentum due todrag ‘within the dusty disc that surroundsa young tar Clearly, sucha dramatle ‘migration didn'thappen in ‘oursystem, whereall thegiant planets ike Jupiterare relatively faraway from the sun. But now sclentsts say they have the rst directevidence thathupiter did ‘migrate inwards albeit toalesser degree than the hot Jupters. "The evidence comes froma curious group of 700 ors rocky Fury at UK's plans to ship hot waste out to Kyrgyzstan THE UKs planing to send 1800 tonnes of uranium-contaminated waste for processing inthe former Soviet republic of Kyrgystan in central ‘Asia, Though the move s ferely ‘opposed by environmental groups, ‘he companies are expecting approval forthe plan within weeks, [New Sdentsthas uncovered “The materia, whichis owned by British Wuclear Fuels BNF, wn enact ‘hunks called the Hilda asteroids, ‘whlch orbit thesun three times forevery two[ovian years The vast majority of these have slightly elongated elliptical orbits (see Graphic), whereas many other asteroids havenear-circular ‘orbits. According to red Franklin’steam atthe Fiarvard- Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge Massachusetts, a migrating Jupiter could explain why sofew Hildas have circular orbits, Their simulations show thatif young upiter had orbited about topercent farther from the sun thin itis now, and then spiralled inbyabout70 million kilometres ‘vera period of 100,000 years ‘ormore, its gravity would have elected any proto-Hilda asteroids with circular orbits from thesolar system, And itwould have further tlongated the orbits ofthose that remained (The Astronomical Journal, vol 128, p 1393) ‘Luckily forus,Jupiterdid “Had Jupiter migrated all the way in towhere Mercury lies it would have done some very nasty things tothe Earth” is bing stored in 10,600 drums at ‘the Springfield reactor ful ‘manufacturing plant near Preston in north-west England. Thewaste is mainly graphite leftover from 50 -yearsof making fuel forthe UN's Magnax first-generation reactors. Ris too radioactive tobe disposed off atthe local landfill ite, citton Marsh, because itis mixed with about 40 tonnes of uranium. SoBNFLhas opted to sanditto the Kara Balt uranium mining and processing faclityin northern yrgyestan, 60 klometreswest ofthe capita, Bishkak, Kara Balai one of the fem plants capable of separating the uranium from the graphite, DT ‘Te ts seca eli os suas upto sae tows es not spiralintoo far, as other het Jupiters apparenty di, possibly because the dusty dise around the young sun was relatively thin. “Had Jupiter migrated all {the way into say, where Mercury lies itwould have done some very nasty things tothe Earth,” Franklinsays."We probably ‘wouldn’ tbe here Phil Armitage whostudies according to BNFL. The uranium will be exacted with add and returned ‘@ the UK for ous, while the graphite will be disposed ofn Kyrgyzstan. Pate Roche, a consultant to Groonpeac, says itis morally wrong ‘osend Bitsh waste abroad. “BNFL appears tobe usinga bad oor route to dump UK nudear waste ‘on animpovershed former Soviet republic," headds. The scheme has alo been “BNFL appears to be using a back- door route to dump UK nuclear waste on an impoverished former Soviet republic" planet formation at the University ‘of Colorado in Boulder says, "Thisisthe first clearevidence 'veseen for migration of Jupiter” He adds thatJupiter’sshorttrek could have disturbed the gravity ofthe bodies of the immer solar system sathat they collided ‘more frequently, spurring the formation and growth of our ‘own Earth Hazel Muir ‘opposed bya coalition ofsodaland environmental groups in Kyrgyzstan. ‘And while the Kyra prime ministr, Nikola Tanayey, nas indicated that bis government disapproves” of ‘the project, a commission of experts setup by the government has recommended that the plan should be given the go-ahead. ‘Theshipment being ranged ‘or BNFLby German company RANE ular. "We arent aware ofa further concems by Hye authorities,” ‘company spoleswomansys, “RIVE Nukem expectsthefinal approvalsofthe authorities in {yrzstan and Germany within the nextweeks.” Rob Edwards © 2S Seplenbe2004|NewSdeni‘hich real-life traders take “Johnson has shown that Virtual brokers declons.Teyrnthemedel hemlet eerie stock market behaviour both fore C ‘a st re a I sto cks predictions with he ieterioart hourly and by the minut tuned, by tweakingthe strategies ontoa new trajectory. While this used by someagentsforexample, raises the spectre of powerful aoa designed to mimica broad cassof untilthe predictionsfallinline investors dlrecting markets to ‘multi-component systems from _withthemarket'sreal behaviour. _theiradvantage, the model may ‘THEbehaviourof complex financial marketsandecosystems Oncetuned, the model is also provide regulators with the systemssuchas financial markets tocomplex computersoftware.readytomake real predictions, _ Insight tokeep markets safe."Our ‘may befareasiertopredictand —_Intheirmodel, "agents" withina__Johnsonhas shown that the model workmay suggest which trading controlthanpreviouslythought, population use variousstrategies accurately predicts stockmarket practices should or shouldn't be suggestsa new computer model tocompetewlthoneanotherfora behavlourbothhourlyandby allowed," says Johnson. of suchsystems. “resource’-Simulatinga financial the minute(worwarsivorg/cond- _Theresearchers stress that ‘Anythingasmessyasa ‘market forinstance, involves mat/04o9036) ‘he modelis applicable toall ‘Alnanclal market is usually housandsofsuch agents deciding Moresteking isthe possibilty Kindsof complex systems considered toodifficultto predict whether to buy or sell stocks, ofsteering markets inadesired _besidesmarkets.For instance, ‘ormanage. But physicist basingtheirdecisionsonpast direction. Ittumsoutthat just__theyhope that this technique may ‘Neiljohnsonand mathematician trends inthe picesof stocks. ‘afew tweaks tothe populationof ultimately be useful inmedicin, David Smith ofthe University Tokickoffthemodel,Johnson agents forinstance,alteringthe __withcells modelled asagents, ‘of Oxford now claim that the andSmithrandomlyequip their strategiesusedbyafewagents, _tosteerthe biological system ‘Prospects are not sa bleak. ‘agents with strategies that lortakingafewagents out ofthe away fromdangers suchas They exploreda model represent themyziad ways in pleture=can deflect the market tumoursoreplleptic fits. © err un Soe cuca SECRETS aaa Er ee a ony aeons Sen ityou met anamazonian tribe, would you know Sc eT ss Adeeper understanding of how we Det eR eee Predicting how kids' looks change as they grow Dee eee ce Plus- Which way is up? Before we can exploit the quantum realm, eee oad 16 Newser 25 sepleber2004 men rensenis.omResearch news and discovery Motion deafness TRACKING a moving sound and pinpointing its location invalve different parts of the brain, according tothefirststudy ofa person with"cortcal motion deafness Thewoman'sconditionisa result of surgery to treat severe epllepsy. Before the operation the research team, ledby Christine Ducommunat the University Hospital of Geneva in Switzerland, used electrodesto stimulate the superior temporal gyrus, the brain region destined for removal, The woman said this madeher feelasthougha humming sound ‘was coming towards her face, suggesting azole forthesTG in perceiving moving sounds. Threemonths after the operation she was unable tell thedifference between stationary and moving sounds Neuron, vol43.p765)-They always seemed tobe stationary and just behind hr rightear. "She didn'tbeliove lus when we sald that the sounds ‘were moving.” says Ducommun, Asthma is in the blood TWO studies claimto have setled anage-old debate on the role of certaiawhite blood cellsinasthma, Toinvestigate whetherthe hike ineosinophileseen during attacks Isacauseof symptoms oraside effect, James lee at Mayo Clinicin Scottsdale, Arizona, and his team bred genetically modified mice thatlacked these cells When they triggered asthma attacks in themodified mice, the animals did not experience the Increased mucus production seen during attacks in normal mice This suggests thateosinophils are Integral in producing symptoms. Asimilarstudy by Alison Humbles and colleagues at Harvard Medical School in Boston also implicated eosinophils (Science, vol 305, p 1773 and p 176). omen. What caused the collapse of Easter Island civilisation? THE mystriousinhabtants of Eastrstand inthe Pacific (Ocean did not wreck their pristine environment andsoruin thelr chances of survival. They were the victims of ‘draumstance and were probably doomed to perish. Faster sind has long been a mystery: awind-blsted and trelesslandsape dominated by gant stone statues setbyits longsina-departed Polynesian inhabitants. Because twas once forested, ita become an emblem of evironmental and social deine. Buta detailed study of7 Pacific stands pinpoints nine emironmental predictors of Pacific deforestation before Monkeys hear no evil in bad music MONKEYS do not prefer sounds thatare harmonious to human ears, suggesting that people have ‘unique appreciation of music. People ind certain pairs ‘of notes more harmonious than others. Pleasing intervals areknownas consonant, while ‘unappealing ones are called dissonant. Even very young infants enjoy hearing consonant intervals more, suggesting that people are hard-wired ‘with the preference at birth. But while the bra and mammals show patterns of activity in response toconsonantand dissonant intervals, it was unclear whether these animals actually prefer certainpairsofnotes. ‘Tofind out, josh McDermott ofthe Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Mare Hauser of larvard University took six cotton-top tamarins and placed the arrival of turopeans, and comes toa different ondusion (ature, vol 4, p43). "Eater's colapse ‘as not because ts people were especially improvidet, Dut because they faced oneof the Facifi’s most fragile emvironments,” ays geographer lared Diamond of the University of aliforia, as Angeles. ‘The sland stemotenessin the eastem Faciicmeant ‘trae fever, benefited from fertlevokanc dust ‘brought on the winds fom eruptions in Asi. tis abso ‘awry, smalland dry. Ane the and f distant ffom the equatoy sothe Polynesians favourite ees, such as breafut and Tahitian chestnut, would not ‘row thee. These factorswouldhavemadeititficult forthe stands innabitants to grow new tres to replace those they used. ‘each one ina V-shaped maze Withineach arm of the maze, they played either consonant or dissonant sounds, effectively allowing the monkeys tochoose ‘whether to spend more time listening tothe sounds they found ‘most pleasing (Cognition, DOT: 10.1016/jcognition.2004 04.004). ‘Thetamatins showed no preference for either consonant or ‘dissonant sounds, spending equal UUmeinboth arms of the maze. ‘The researchers suggest thatthe penchantforconsonant intervals ‘evolved in early humans, ofbinds rent 25 Septenber00| Newser 17Research newsand discovery Why oceans on Mars have proved so elusive OCEANS on Mars would have Deen acidic, new analysis of the planet’ chemistry suggests. ‘This could explainwhy scientists Ihave failed toclinch the case for ‘Martian oceans, despite NASA's rovers findingevidence of water ‘onthe planet. On Earth, ceansabsorbcarbon dioxide from the atmosphere land deposit tas carbonate rock. Scientists have looked for, but failed to find, similar deposits on How to keep the spring in your heart DOING enough endurance exercise can keep a70-year-olf shear asstrongas ‘one years younger. ‘As peopl age, the walls oftheir heartsten, andes blood ents the heartbetmeen beats To keep pumping enough, the heartworksharder, butthiscanresultin blood backing up Inthe lungs causing heart allure. Benjamin Levine at the Presbytrian Hospital in Dallas, Texas, ‘wanted to find out how much ageing ‘stoblameforthiskind of stitening, compared with kof eerse. His tsa studied 24 adults approaching Toyearsold.Halfere past sporting ‘champions andstil averaged the te Newscast 2 September 006 Mars. Now Alberto Fairen from ‘theAutonomous University ‘of Madrid (UAM) in Spain and colleagues haveshown why Martian oceans would not have ormed carbonates, Earlier this year, NASA's over Opportunity found iron-rich ‘lherals and sulphate salts atits landing ste, Meridiani Planum, ‘The researchers worked out that ‘oceans contarlnated with such ‘compounds would interact with ‘equivalent of more than 50 klmetres runningawreek. Theres took fewer ‘han three 30-minute sessions of ‘exercise a week. The team compared ‘these two groupswith healthy ‘young adults around30yexrsol, who took as ite exercises the sedentary seniors. As expected, theresting heart rate ofthe senior athletes were Teaver than the sedentary seniors. Surprisingly, their heart elasticity, ‘measured a the ratio oftheir blood presure tothe volume of blood pumped by the heart, was not only significant higher tan that of the sedentary seniors, but was almost dential to that the sedentary juniors (Gredtion, vol 10, p 1805). Iti notyetnown how much exercise {srequired tor hisresut, however. an eatly Martian atmosphererich incarbon dioxideand become Acidi, preventing carbonates from forming (Nature, vol 431, P 423) Hut otherexperts are nat convinced that the problem has beensolved. foshua Banfield of Arizona State University in ‘Tempe, who has studied the distribution ofcarbonateson Mars, warns thatthe geology of Meridiani Planum might not be representative of therest of Mars. Smaller giants ANOPTICAL.lusion has been causingastronomersto overestimate the size ofa class ofgiant stars by afactorof2, new observations suggest. ‘Thestars, novwn as pulsating real glants or Mira variables, beganlife aboutthesame sizes thesun. Inthe to1o billion years that ittook them to become Miras, ‘they have grown lundreds of. times largerin diameter Previous observations hhave revealed that these stars have extended cocoonsof water, carbon monoxide andother ‘molecules, Measurements of the stars’ sizes were mostly based on shell diameterratherthan the stelarsurface, says Stephen Ridgway ofthe National Optical Astronomy Observatory in ‘Tucson, Arizona. Now, Ridgway andan international team of astronomers have studied six nearby Miras using anarray of Infrared telescopes at Mount Hopkins, Arizona, and found the stare are half thesize they were thoughttabe. That’sbecause mostofthe earlierstudies used optical telescopes, and the titanium oxide inthe shells made them opaqueto visible ight. But the shellsare transparentto infrared telescopes, revealing the smaller stars within. Theresearch willbe published in an upcoming issue of Astronomy &Astrophyslcs. Saving Earth from sheep burps YOU can'tstpashoep belching or farting, butyou on make ure its eructationsare less damaging tothe envionment. Beldtes, and toa far lesser degre farts, rom sheep, coms and other farm animalsaccaunt for around 20 percent of global ‘missionsof methane. The gas sa Potent source of glbal warming because, volume for volume it taps 2 times as much heatas the more Plentifu carbon dixie. Toprotecthe planet rom such ruminant effusions, 2 team led byAndre-Denis Wright of the Commorweath Scentiticand Indust Research Organisation in Pert, Wester Australia, has developed avaccne against the achaean microbes that produce methane in sheep runes. After vo Injections ofthevacine, sheep burped 8 percents methane ina ‘w-hour test Vaccine, vol 2, p3976). Thevaccine, based on three species of nactvated microbe, ‘as effective against only 20 per ent cof methanogen species inthe sheep. Future formulations wil attempt tohitmorespeciesandcut methane production stl further, saysiright, Faod aditvescanalso reduce the methane beled by livestock Wew Scientist, 5 March 2003, p23) utthey muse piven day, sothey ar only suitable orintensively farmed animals whereas avaccine ‘ould be given fall ruminants. vncCommentand analysis We have a problem Inthe headlong rush for the glory of the prize, safety seems to have become a mere afterthought. The consequences could be devastating, says David L. Chandler WHEN Burt Rutan’s SpaceShipOne makes the first attempt to win the Xprizenext week, theastronautat itshelm willbe following ina long tradition of daredevil test pilots ‘ut unlike previous competitions ta push the boundaries of human Might, theX prize brings withitan extra pressure:a deadline. Ifthe $10 million prlzehasnot been won by midnight ‘on3i December, it willbe withdrawn. ‘The question is whether this pressures leading competitors Totake risks that endanger people's lives unnecessarily. Some dangeris ‘unavoidable at the cutting edge of space fight. Theflzst Apollo crew died ‘without even leaving theground; ‘hwo cosmonauts died during reentry {nthe 1960s; Apollo 13 was saved from disasterby incredible luck; and then there were the Columbia and Challenger disasters ‘The prize sponsorshope things ‘willbe different this time. The prize will goto the frst privately fanded groupto ‘make two return flights into sub-orbital space withthe same human. piloted craftcarrying the weightequivalent ‘ofto passengers, in the space of two ‘weeks. The idea is that the publicity generated bya winner will spur investment inthe privatespace Industry, Butts gamble. Astronaut deaths have hada cripplingimpacton the space industry. In the wake ofthe Columbia disaster in1986,forexample, some scientists and politicians argued ‘that human space fight should be stopped. What would be the reaction if fatal accident were tobefallan Xprizecompetitor? Rutan's SpaceShipOne (SS), the oxids-on favourite to win, has followed ‘the methodical aviation tradition of build alittle test-alittle. But even ‘with tis prudent approach there Ihave been scares. During SS1's maiden space fightin June this year, a sudden less of attitude controlanda loud ‘boom in the backwere enough to scarethecrafts seasoned test plot. Intheevent, both turned out tobe wn enact L cree “astronaut deathshave hada crippling impacton the spaceindusty” ‘minorglitches that were easily fed. Otherteams have had more serious problems. Texas-based John Carmack, ‘whomadea fortuneincomputer games and wasa seriousX prize contender, isnowautof the running fllowing a falled test. His rocket, Black Armadillo, crashed inan unmanned tstin August. Rubicon a rocket builtby Space Transport of Forks, Washington, exploded in mid-airon itsfirsttest Fightin August. The team is now ‘working fa-out to bullda replacement, 0r$29,000aboutone-thousandth ‘the costof SS1~ before the deadline, Fortunately nelther ofthese accidents ledtoany human casuaties The glamour and urgency of ‘winning this prize ison the minds of ‘the 20-odd teams still in the rae, Take Brian Feeney, director of the Toronto- ‘based da Vinci projec, who intendsto ‘make the first rocket fight himselfon 20ctober, whether ornot Rutan has already claimed the X prize Feeney will {gostralght tospace inacraft that has neverflown before. And hes usinga radically new and untested design to ‘boot. His rocket will belaunched {roma helium balloon floating 80,000 feet, and willely on many untested elements workingfirsttime. While SS’s prize attempt will be the spaceship's ith fight, Feeney wants tohut the jackpot on his ist try. fRutan doesn't succeed next week, ‘there willna doubt be amad dash tocaim the loot before it vanishes, ‘And that is bound to tempt competitors. tocut morecorners and take chances, with potentially fatal consequences Asserlousaccident would not only be ‘tragedy for those directly invalved, it ‘Would hurt the entire nascent industry. ‘Thereisa precedent fordangerous behaviour under his kind of pressure. In the 19208, the $25,000 Orteig prize spurred Charles Lindbergh tomake the first successful non-stop Aight from New York to Paris, Inthe elght years between the prize goingonofferand Lindbergh winning it sixmendied inthe attempt, nthree separate accidents, Unlike theX prize, the Ortelg had nodeadlineand thecompetition ‘merely tested the endurance limits ofexisting aircraft. he X prize is different. tie testing one off designs ‘that will ly into uncharted teritory. And the safety systems the X prize competitors are using are alarmingly rudimentary. Forexample,SSt'spilot ‘has parachute, and the rat's only safety devices killswitch ‘that shuts down the engine inan ‘emergency, leaving the pilot without Doweras the craft glides back toearth, Safety features for the other contenders are no moresophisticated, ‘Spice enthusiasts remain confident that publicexcitement in manned spaceflight greater than ever. CCertaaly 8Sthas summoned up far ‘more interest than shuttle fights have ‘managed for years and this can only Increase ithe prizes won. ‘But whatthen? Hopes for commercial exploitation of private space fight are pinned on developing space tourism. Porcommercial spaceflight, a fingers «crossed approach won'tdo. -Evensafety-conscious NASA's shuttle dasa fllure rate ofa 67 Mights~ hardly the makings of touristbusiness ‘Future competitions should make safety acentral feature, Theres ‘too much riding on these pioneering projects forit tobe treated asamere Aeslrableextra, © 2septebr 2008 Nansen |19MMe eater] cy Dogs are about to get some serious competition inthe rescue stakes — from sniffer rats wearing radio backpacks Evi SINGER, BOSTON RATSequippedwith radios that transmit theirbrainwaves could soon be helping to locate earthquake survivors buried nthe wwredaage of cllapeed buildings, Ratshaveanexquistely sensitive sense of smell and can craw justabout anywhere ‘This combination make them ideal candidates for sniffing out buried. survivors. For thatthe animals need tobe taught tohome non people, and they mustalso signal theirposition to rescuers onthe surface. Ina project fandedby DARPA the Pentagon's research arm, Linda nd Ray Hermer- Vazquez ofthe University of Plozidain Gainesville have wn enact Technology as ower oe thy sue oust ‘worked outa way toachieve this. First the researchers identified ‘theneural signal ats generate ‘when they have founda scent that ‘theyre looking for."When adog, issniffinga bomb, he makes a ‘uniquemoverneat that the handler recognises,” says ohn. Chapin, a neuroscientist at the State University of New Yorkin Brooklyn who is collaborating onthe project.“Instead of the rat ‘making conditioned response, ‘we pickup the response immediately from the brain” Each rathaselectrodes {implanted inthree reas ofthe ‘brain: the olfactory cortex, where the brain processes odour signals; the motor cortex, where the brain plans ts next move; and the reward centre, which ‘when stimulated gives the rat pleasurable sensation. The electrodes, each consisting ofan array of up to32 stainless steel, ‘wires 75 micrometres in diameter, are permanently implantedin ‘the brain and can give accurate IN THISSECTION ‘@ tind intligencecomesto all centres, page 2 at your ar sys aout fst fod habs, page 23 (© Emergency technologies proferate post 91, pages This allowed researchers to Identify the bralawave patterns associated with finding that smell They werealsoabletotrainthe rats tosniffout the explosives ‘INT andRDX~key after terrorist attacks that may leave buildings harbouring unexploded bombs, “There aretwo neuralevents that we believe ae hallmarks of the‘ahaf moment forthe rat.” saysLinda Hermer-Vaequee, These are high-frequency activity inonesubset of neurons, and decreased activity in two other areas, she says. ‘Signals from therat’sbrain will berelayedtoaradio transmitter packstrapped totheanimal’s back, which Chapinis developing, Rescuers will beable tofollow the rat's position by tacking these signals. They arealso developing software that will recognise the “aha” moment when therat has found its target, so rescuers wil know where tostart digging. The team hope tocreatea working system within nine months, (Other teams looking at waysto seek people trapped under debris signals for upto nine months. "The researchers tained the ratsto search for human odour by stimulating the reward centre ‘when it found its target smell (Once the rats were rained, they were set to forage forthe target smell, while electrodes recorded theirneuralactivity patterns. nnn ‘tt tind tennis te sal of amar or roses es aes a Snir op onect hopeto pte "The rats were rained to locate explosives ~ key in buildings destroyed by terroristattacks” hhave designed wheeled, tracked oreven snakellke robots that can. slither into wrecked buildings (New Scientist, November 2001, p22). Butrats haveseveral advantages. "Artificial noses don't ‘worlewell when thereareother smells around,” says Christiane Linster, an ofaction expert at Cornell University in New York. dpe | nent "Ratsare good at that” Rate romeeint ceded alsoadeptat navigatingover itearsiirlee—_futtowen™"' unexpected obstacles, and of oot course they don'tnesd an clectiity supply Rescue teams welcome the dea “itwould beabsolutely fantastic” says ulle Ryan ofnternational Rescue Corps inScotland, which flies rescuers to disaster zones around the world.“A ratcould get, ‘nvoids and spaces wecouldn’t gette.Andarat would try toget ut fitdida'tfeelsafe” © 2S sepabr2004 Nensctst |Technology canalsobe used toremind the ‘operator of any aspects of the product that they are legally required towam thecustomer about that not keeping up payments on amortgage could Callcentres oftentakecallsfor right pagetomatch acustomer’s lead tothe lossofthe customers DUNCAN GRARAM ROVE severalclients, perhapsanenergy querycanbe tough, andthe caller home,forexample. Ifthe system PHONEscallcentreandyou _-companyabenkandaninsurance fequentlymistobeputonuold doesnotchear theleywords arelielytospendagesonhold business Tachoperatormayhave whlletheoperstorsearchesfor ofthat wamingthe operator will Iisteningtocamedmusic=——asmanyasioooopagesof, therdeant information, tree asharponsereen andthenfindtheopeatorcan't produc dala lochoove fom. Torlnstance heAlsystem _feminderbefore he callends. findtheinformationyou need. KoenWolter acomparterscintst__wilrecognise words such s¢ “he prototype version ofthe Butancvifeuiinligencesysiem attheUnivesityeftwesteinthe “morgage’vepayment and systemeansearchforonlya thathuntsdowatherequied = Nethetanswioheipeddevelop “interes andentertnem ntoa_bindfulof phrases and wort only informsvionissimingrosissh thesystem sayefindingthe”—seatchenginededicatedrothe | on aPC. ut the iret commercial the ime people waste this wa Gilleentresnetworkinthsease version which wil goon iat Usingamisturofspecch “Faieraccssto information” -«‘wouldretevethove pages aDutch bank later his month recognition snd seach engine ‘ity concerningoptionsoninerestwilbesbetodetct1000 keywords Echtolgymesmen ace Wilevecllcentestheabilly ee scnamenaee _sadropenteonthecenes dvelopedby eit wilt tO Make a harder sel ‘Thespeechrecopuitoncystem — networkserer. drallcenre’s databanks forthe However, thetechnology- information acustomerwants ifieprovesitselfin the Dutch anu present tithe operator trial could also havea downside Before he callers shed thatconsumers ey ad iss ‘welcome: faster access to sales information will give the callcentres the ability to make ‘amuch harder sell Inthesame way thatthe system reminds the operatorto ‘warn the customer, I willalso remind them to" upsell” on behalf of theclient convincing the callerthat there are better deals tobe had by paying ttle more "Tewillcertainly givea better focuson upselling opportunities,” ‘agrees IBM. So watch Out forthe explaining what they want. By giving operators rapid access tothe ight information, calls will bedealt with faster. ‘Thesystem worksby listening. Inte theconversationand Identifying keywords spoken by ‘hecustomer. Tt then flashes up the most relevantinformation Itean find onto the operator's screen, BM projectleader Johan Schuurmans says an early versionof thesystem allowed calls to behandled about 20 per centfaster than normal Theanswers ther beforeyou have fished thequesion techno-assisted hard sel. @ Gas {UAT WOULD YOU DOWITHA.GIGABYTE with acassby invitation ony, a number While epertsexpet alot more that shoot inbigh defiriton enabling ‘OFFRE ONUNE STORAGE? of apendent sofia tol for SGmalides to follow, nefaioususes ae usersto make a top-qualiy copy ofthe number ofingenious ussfor Googl’'s tweaking Gmailhaveatready sprung apparentalready. Faudters,posibly pictures ona cinema sre. free emallservig, Gall aresufadng upon theInterne. Spammers, last week began Gall Sony's HW 080 ameorder wil se ‘before the service has even launched. Jonathan Hemander, Mexia “phishing” emailing Gmail acount standard tapes. But til record 1080 These indude wing the Grail acount programmer, hasueedone ach ol fo holders, promising the fue more Gmail fines per picture nets dof the SS an sexta memoryforaPF,oraplacelo tumnfisGmal acountinte monline —aceuntsineturaforthe sername and 65linesrectded fer the MISCand ALT ‘zep anon diay, or weblog. lary rblog"Sendinganemwilto his pasmiordtothecexisingacounts, standards. The HOW pictures on Sons Instead ofthe 2 megabytes ypicaly Gna account automaticly posta tapenil bein the MPEG-2format, the fered by feewebmalsevicessuch message to the blog ~ while theemail _IND-QUALTY CAMCORDER same as used by DVDs the new sMicrosot's Hotmail, Gmail ofl accuntservesastheblogsarchie. Sony hasgen the movi industy xtra amcarder will connect toa DUD recrder ‘pity ofstoragespac. Google And Richard Jones ofManyland fas gone motivation tomakesureitsplansto stop or home compar for edtng I pirates hopes to make money eutofitsserice astagefurthe, tuning is Gnailacount pirtesusing ameardersin cinemas will ansmuggle the new carvorde into by searching emalsforkeywordsand —inloan extra folder fr is computers really work (se “rwention’, opposite). dnema, they wilcome outwith a spaying relvantpald-for adverts, Un operating systan. ts heading Before the years out, Sony il launch a near perfect movie eoring ready for ‘though the service isin test mode, a gigabyte toa hard die. ‘consumer Digital Video) camcorder copying ts bank DNs. 22 INansdetst 25 Septenber004 men rensenis.omPTR e Mm Cy Check out the car, Bob YOU may thinkyour carsaysa Jotabout you, buttoa computer called Bobit says ustone thing: youlikeeither quarter pounders orchicken nuggets. obisan automated fastfood restaurantmanagement system nditsjobis to predict what people are likely to orderbefore they reach the counter. The idea istoget the chefs cookingthe rightfood forthe incoming ccustomersas ron as possible Icuts waiting timeand wastage, and ensures that the food is hot "Bob, which was developed by Hyperdetive Technologies of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, hastwo waysto predict what customers arelikely o buy: the type of car they drive and theirhefght. Pickup trucks mean quarter pounders hit the grill while big family carsarelikelyto contain children, so chicken nuggets and fries arethe order ofthe day. ‘Similarly, people of adult height walking up tothe front door are likely to order wn enact quarter pounders, while people under certain heighttend tobe youngsters who order child meals. ‘Bob takes pletuzes from roof ‘mounted cameras. Theyarefed toa PC where image processing. software can Mdentify ypesof vehicleand sizes of pedestrians Thenumberofcarsalsohelps predict how many meals will be ‘equired, an important factor forthesmooth ranningofa restaurant, The software makes its predictions based on research carried outby HyperActive Technologies. n time, Bob will also use data on past food. consumption to help workout ature demand. Inaltralat a McDonald's in CChippews, Pennsylvania, Bob is makingan impression." Bobis, ‘managing supply and demand, right down tothe minute,” says “Pickup trucks mean quarter- Pounders hit the gil, big family cars want nuggets and fies" Pat Currie, the branch manager. CCralgCoulter, cofounder of HyperActive Technologies, saysBob isensuring burgers are servedhot, and wastehasbeen “virtually eliminated” Walting ‘times have been cut by anaverage ‘ofa minute per order. yperdtive Technologies, notalone in tryingto predict ‘what people wantin restaurants, Advanced Interfaces, a software ‘company based in State College, Pennsylvania, has developed more sophisticated ways of predicting ‘what people willorder. Software itisdeveloping wll infer what peoplearelikely toorderusing factors suchas genderand age, assessed from photograph of ‘anapproaching customer. “forexample chicken and salads are more popular with females, burgersare more for males.” saysArmeen Gould, an applications developer at the firm. “Hut Coultercountersthat ‘Bobs already doing such a good Jobusing only two parameters that there is no need tocapture Finer levels of detailto accurately predict demand, Bob isnowbeing tested in seven branches of McDonald's, ‘Burger Kinganda Taco Bell, InPennsylvania, Obioand Florida, Coleste Biever @ ‘0h, 3 predictable soot OWNS “wove fram New York want ange the fc of competition wing. Into’ boats to, four o eg ‘ew members sitn line and pl their ‘oats inunison, ands the rowersside ward after cach stoke they tend tojerk the bot backwards. Tiserhy motion ofthe ll through the wer wastes nergy, son US patent appliation 2041018999 invertors ‘rlesandNangy Kunz have cme ‘upmiththe concep of phase shit ‘onving’, 2 tedniquethey aim wl make ew typeof boat es jth, and therefore faster. ‘Thor oat wil separate the toners into two goupsaneat the front and one at the bad, wth enough syace between the goupsto lt one ‘7ouprowin opposite phase to the ‘other without ther ons clsing. “Tho ventorssay that smoothing out thejerksinceasesthe boa’ efiency ype cont, sot travels aster ‘Gn thisreally bea new, patntable idea? Meybe. Anu Duh, who runs the Pyss of Rowing website atthe ‘Univesity f Oxford says he as never ard sch a boat. MORING Moms URWATCHABLE ‘Tew to stop vide pirates using cacordersto copy fin nema, Kodak dams, isto saith toacigital ‘rolection system that hamesesa new ‘wk the company hes dremed up. Une a fm projec a gta ‘projector cree green and blue Tight oro the saver separately, sng emputer-antrled mir. In US patent 200Wo15074, toda ropes intoducnga Mckr of ron 100 hertz into these Beams, saga slighty ferent equency for ‘ach colour Though the fk it rapido be detectable by the human eye, itintrferes with the camcorders ‘leconicsto make the red, een ‘and blue content ofthe recording Actuate unwatay. ‘ith today's fm projectors, pirates an aust their mcndor ‘shutters to avoid ier But three lous ichigo ight diferent ates the na syste makes this Impossible. Eany Fax @ separ 200| Newest 23Technology trends ee eT will do the rest Fitting cellphones with GPS receivers will go a long way to helping emergency services find those in distress eee technologies is “Enhanced gut’ aasystem emerging in the US that WHEW herBMW skidded offthe __pigaybacksa cellphone's location roadand plingedintoa1o-metre- detailsontogit emergency cll, deep canal near Miami, Florida, ‘The US Federal Communications IinFebruary2001,thedriverhad _Commissionhasruled that ‘timetodial gniashercarsiowiy _cellphonenetwotks must beable sank“Tmnotsure whereIam,” to pinpointa users position with shetoldtheemergencydispatch an aceuraey of aboutioo metres operator.Withtheemergency _bytheend of2005. services unable to find her ca, ‘Toachieve this, new phones she drowned minuteslater, wilhave tobe fitted with GPS Tragedies lke thisare receivers, Twomobilenetworks, galvanising those whowant tose VerizonWirelessand Sprint, are positioning technologies used already including GPS receivers in automaticallyinallemergency _alltheirnewhandsets. Old non- communications. From (GPS phonescan fix their position cellphones that broadcast your _using tlangulation: measuring position when you makean hhow long ittakes signals toreach emergency call, osystemsthat _threenearby phone masts. remotely furnon yourTV set to wamoflocal disasters, 4 Aigitaltechnology snowbeing "We have technology hamessedtomake peoplesafer. _Justsitfing there that ‘Themostimminentofthenew could besaving ives” You don'tneed to know where you ae el News 25 epenber20% All networks will need to beable totriangulate anyway, because GPS doesn’t work inside buildings. Europe is approaching the problem in adifferent way, Counting on the fact that phone companies will soon be offering location capability withoutany EU ‘mandate a3 a result of predicted demand for" nearest restaurant” style location services. “Eurape is ‘woto three years behind the US ‘onthis,” says David Williams, an E-gitexpertinWilton Connecticut. ‘But Eguiis just part of much broader efforttorevampUS emergency communications, says Ken Allen executive director ‘of Washington DC-based pressure ‘group Partnership for Public ‘Warning. The Departmentof Homeland Security andthe FOC areunderincreasing pressure from PPW and other groups, who say today’s Emergency Alert System (EAS) for contacting civilians, which dates back to the cold war, lags woefully behind the possiblities offered by digital communications. “We have technology just sitting there that could be saving lives" says Clay Freinwald, who is chairman of the Washington State EASboard and alsoa tech-savvy ‘member ofthe Society of Broadcast Engineers. Sowhat’s wrong with EAS? Issues warnings from central cor local government, or weather centres, whichare then ‘ansmnitted automatically by USTV and radio broadcasters, inchuding cable channels. But this ‘means you'llonly ecelve warning ‘ofanearby tomado or chemical spill,say, ifyou happentobe watching TV orlistening tothe radlo."EAS doesn't workbecause itonly reachessa few people,” says Peter Ward, co-founder of the PPW."EASis rele, adinosaue! ‘What’ really needed is away toswitehonaTV whenit’soff- crrather,onstandby. In fact, just such atechnologyexists, Activating your set in response toa digital 'switeh-on-from standby” signal. Ths is already included in the Alert Guard TV set from RCA, Which ashes up weather alerts or "The Alert Guard TV flashes ‘upweather alerts and emergency warnings” ‘emergency warnings. PW wants RCA's technology, orsomething. similar, mandated forall neve sts Butof course such setsareno use ifyou are notat home when, disasterstrikes Solobby groups farerecommending sending alerts toceliphones, PDAs and email ‘accountsas wel. The range of potentialchannelsis almost endless.In theory youneed toreceive analert isa device with some Kind ofdsplay screen or speaker, says Ward. That includes GPS systems incars and smart ‘watches, suchas the Microsoft Spot watch, which are equipped ‘with an FM radioand screen, Ward recently helped lobby fora system in Arizonaand Washington thatsends outdetalls ‘onabductions, via textandemail ‘messages, tomedia outlets and tomembers of the public who Ihave signed up. Forexample it smightbroadeast the license plateofakidnapper'scarora description of the child or ‘abductor. Called the Amber Alert WebPortalConsortium, itisan cextensionof the Amber Alert system that began broadcasting the same data tohighoray signs in 1996. Soar Ward's system only handles abductionalerts. Butalertsare one thing getting people to take notices snother. Rombarding the public ‘with warnings could desensitise people somuch that they ignore them, says Markallen, head of the Washington State Association of Broadcasters in Olympia, ‘What's more, Katherine Albrecht of consumer privacy group Caspian in Nashua, New Hampshire, fearssuch technology could be used by governments t0 spread fear, orcouldend up in the handsof spammers."It'sa slippery slope. Once the capability, exists to turnonaTV remotely, then evenifthe government behaves itself, you will see advertisers trying toaccessit” Albrecht says. @ men rensenis.omMerchants of ivory From Claire Wallerstein, Intemational Fand for Animal Welfare Danlelstiles makes the ‘extraordinary assertion that tradingin ivory ieabetterway toconserveelephantsthanan ivory ban (28 August, p16) In fact history has shown trade tobe thesinglemost decisive factorin making scores of species from tigers tocod endangered nthe frst place-andelephants are no exception, Stiles states that there will alwaysbe a demand for worked ivory butthisis clearly not the case. Following the 1989 ban on ivory trade by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), prices plummeted and demand dried up. Whilehe ‘admits the ban led toan initial crash in ivory matkets, he says this was followed by a resurgence Inthe mid-1990s. Yet bizarrely, thesame paragraph, he saysan ivory stockpilesale approved by (CITES in 1997~the fist since the ban did notleadtoany increase ‘nelephant poaching or ivory trade. Infact, twas this very stockpilesale, not the ban, which ‘caused the resurgence in trade, ‘With talkofeven a limited trade inivory reopening. poachers and traders who need 3 legal market conto whichtolaundertheit ‘wares set out torecommence the Bloodshed. ‘With CITES already estimating the world’s illegal trade in ivory atup toastonnes peryear, Stiles's callfora "regulated trade" in ivory {sadangerous utopian fantasy, London UK Right to be deaf Fromiantesie ‘Once again the prospect ofacure {or profound deafness has voices ‘within the"deafcommunity” asserting thatthe conditions not ‘pathology but justa difference, like skin colouror sexual orientation (28 August, p36), ‘This view is wholly ormalaly 2s News 25 eptenber20 ‘dependent on saying that signing ‘safulllanguageequivalenttoan oral one, This may well bes, butoral communicationis far from the only function of hearing, “Although profoundly sympatheticto the wish of deaf peoplenot tasee themselves asdlsabled, [believe they are deluded. Ineed only one word torefute the" different butequal” aim: muse, Should curebe perfected, towithhold it froma profoundly ‘deaf infant would bean abominable act. Ldlow, Shropshire, UK Fromyohn Murphy Many may have found parts of yourarticle"Flling on deafears” ‘ufficult to belleve. twas precisely ‘thesortof thing described in your articlethat caused me to resign aschalrofa disabled rights 174 stay Lancunbe FoR Wnt wees 66 orn _astociation and sever my links withthe disability movement, ‘Many profoundly deafpeople ‘cannot accept that deafness is any sortofhandicap and azemost offended if anybody offersto “cure” them. Once, when argued For adequate financial provision forchildren bornwith severe disabilities, someone told methat Iwas presenting the disabled “in poorlight” andsaying “nothing ‘empowering about them’. Weshould makeadequate provision for peopleless fortunate than ourselves, butshould we pretend that not belngable towalk see or hear are advantages? Should we all pay exorbitant prices for books, osubsidise the productionot rangeof minority formats for the visually impaired? question thewisdom of scrappingfineold library buildings just because a minority (of whom Lam one) have ‘rouble climbing stars Hanworth Middlesex, UK Uncertain realities Fromfonatack Tenjoyed the interview with amie Whyte and agree with muchot what eas tosay (September, P40) However, hisannoyance Atthose who are neither atheists ‘or Christians seems tobe what he mightcalla polarisation fallacy. Ye arguesfora scientific approach, which must accept equvocationand tryto citeumvent te paralysing nature of acepted paradigms. Until we can comprehend the origin ofthe universe itis prematureto presumeordeny Acausative- whether theresa “prime mover unmoved". Whytethrows out non theistic ews suchas fundamental ‘Buddhism, withoutevena nod. eewould surely have been exasperated by Bohr, Schrodinger, Fermiand insteln, whol “belived in something” other than the Christian orindeed any other) God ‘What would Whyte make ofthis infuriating statementof Einstein's" farasthe lowes ofmathematies refer tozeaiy theyarenotcerain;asfarasthey arecerain they do notreferto realty The login’ s ast for certainty expressed inlanguage iiteelfemotional rather than rational. The enguling minds not chock fl fright preconceptions, but ofhypotheses that demand testing. Andimacience the weird basa ines proved truer than the commonsenscal Radelifeon Tren, Nottinghamshire, UK Iwas profoundly disappointed that during the interview with philosopher jamie Whyte youlet ‘im characterise religious falth as “belie in something more than ‘wehaveagood reason to believe in’,andyetdidn'tpickhim up ‘onwhat the good reasons areto believe in his speciality: truth. Perhaps alittle study of another slippery concepts inorder: that of justice. Heanor, Derbyshire, UK From Vivienne Nathanson, British Medical Association ‘The British Medical Association has never recommended the Introduction ofatax on fatty foods. Given Whyte attacks con” sloppy thinking” theleast, ‘he could dols check his facts beforelaunchinga tirade ‘against the BMA “The BMA discussed the possibility of tackling the obesity epidemicusingthe taxation systematourannual meeting 2003, butitwas the ‘overwhelming opinion of doctors ‘that sucha system would place ‘anunacceptable burden on low-income groups, Doctors donot pretend to ‘haveall the answers to the health problems facing the world However publichealth problems suchas the high levels ofabesity and the dangersof second-hand smokeare close tothe hearts of doctors, who see the devastating effects these problems can have ‘onthelives oftheir patients. Itisimportantto give people ‘thetools to makeinformed choices and not dictate what those choices should be. By increasing publicdebateon these issues this {s what the BMA is trying todo. London, UK Earth's nuclear heart From Chris Rosagro ‘Anuclearreactoratthecentre of the Earth isan intriguing prospect. But [have two problems ‘with Marvin Herndon's hypothesis as described by Stephen Battersby (7 August, p26). Fist, the near-surfacenatural reactor onceactive at Oklo hardly supports the idea that dense uranium salts would have vn rensenst.omeee aa concentrated atthe centre of the Earth, More disconcerting Is thenotion thatgravity isa significant force near the centre ofthe Earth. Deep within the Earth {gravitational forces canceland ‘theneteffectis that gravity is weak within the core and zeroat ‘the Earth's centre, Therefore, ifmatteris organised deep within the Earth, it would not be due toltsdensty. Gooseberry Hil, Western Australia Saint Stephen FromBrian Clegg Amlaloneinthe rather ‘unnerving feeling that Feedback is trying to progress Stephen Hawking to salathood— especially with the headingin the u September issue" HELP US STEPHEN” alltoo reminiscent of prayers for intercession, erhape we ought to remember the assessment of Hawking in JamesGleick’sbook on the physicist Richard Fenyman, Genlus:"Brlely Stephen Hawking, British cosmologistesteemed butnot revered by his peers, developed a reputation amongst some non scientists as Einstein's {rto the mantle of genius. terms of raw brilliance and hard accomplishment, afew score of his professional colleagues felt thathe was no morea genius sthanthey” ‘AsZaphod Beeblebrox’s analyst xemarks of Zaphod in The Hitchhiker’ Guide tothe Galaxy, “He's just this guy, youknow?” UpperWanborough, Witshire, UK wn enact Feedback, the mug From Francis Norton Feedback'sinsinuation regarding the label ona mugis completely unjustified (u September). Some utensilshavea chemical ‘comporitionwhich means they ‘heat up faster ina microwave than ‘the food inside them. Many isthe time Ihave putamugof coffee {nthe microwave, only tofind that themugistoohottotouch and the contents lukewarm. tis perfectly sensible warning, London, UK Evolving discord From Jan Hein van Dierendonce Inyour report about the work bbySusan Lindquist’steamon the" Lamarckian” behaviour of yeast containing the prion form ‘of Sup3s protein, you state that Jean-Baptiste Lamarck wasa chief ‘valof Charles Darwinand that they had conflicting ideas about the explanation ofevolution, (a1August, p3). However, inhis book Fabulous Science, Jon Waller summarises zocent research by numerous historians that undermines ‘thls vay. In fact, Darwin's notebooks revealed that Lamarck’s ideas profoundly conditioned ‘the way in which Darwin set out touncover the mechanism of evolutionary change, Darwin wasat ease suggesting ‘thatenvironmental factors somehow induced heritable changes in maturing embryos, inaccordance with conventional sgthvcentury ideas of intermingling growth and reproduction. His" provisional hypothesis of Pangenesis’ contends thatevery feature of ‘the embryo'sbody and mind isformed by innumerable specialised hereditary units, ‘or gemmules, that compete forlimited attachment sites” con the newly created body where ‘they can grow and be expressed, ‘These gemmules were believed tooriginatein the respective parts ofthe parents before making thelr ‘See ou websitfor eters on: ight tobe dat @ Animal research ‘@Tamsand tolls @ Mr Death ‘@Areal binge way to their reproductive organs. ‘The use of certain organs strengthened and enlarged certain parts, whiledisuse ‘diminished them, and these ‘modifications were supposed to betransmitted tothe gemmules. Darwin had noconception of random mutation: he never brokeaway from the core ofthe ‘evolutionary ideas that antedated his ownand neverdid think ike ‘a modern Darwinist- would not dare tosuggest that prions perfectly fit the concept of ‘gemmales, bt notice that Lindquist s epigenetic mechanism sounds very Darwinian afterall, Leiden, The Netherlands Odds on gravity From Paul Reeve notice that Ladbrokescut the ‘odds on the LIGO detector finding [gravity waves by 2010 from your reported 500/1 to2/1inone week (28 August p33) shame, Twas hoping my winnings would pay forattip toaspacehotel Tondon, UK Cool Swedes From Neil Mair (One of your"Cutting edg pleees reports ona district cooling system recently installed in ‘Toronto (28 August, p20). ‘What's new here? Stockholm has been doing this for many years, not from 80 metres deep, but using cold bottom water foritsdistrictcoolina system, Sweden's frst district cooling system started Inig92inVasteris (and where else, as itwas also the home of district heating 40.0r ‘more years earlier) Stockholm ‘camelater, inabouti996, think Shrewsbury, Shropshire, OK Worth the bumps Prom Nlek Scott Samuel, University of Bristol ‘You report Kari Hansen's advice toparentsofto s-yearolds~ “Lwould recommend that children donoteyele when so young"-sthich is basedonan Increased injury rate inthis ‘age range (4 September, p14. Doher data takeinto account the healthbenefitsofcycling? Perhaps those who start young arelessinelinedto turnintocouch potatoes in laterlife, in which case ‘Tew bumpsand scratches would seema small price to pay. Bristol UK Keep the battery From Alan Moore ‘Though phonon power might replace the alternator in my ca, Ishallstillneeda battery tostart itfrom cold (4 September, p 3). Leeds, UK From Perry Bebbinton The heat from the various appliances in my house is only ‘wasted inthe suramer, when my heating is switched off Inthewinter the waste heat contributes tothe heating of ‘my house, and while heat from electricity may be expensive compared tothat from gas, itisnotwasted. Nottingham, UK Letters should be sent letters to the Editor, New Scientist, ‘84 Meobala’s Road, London WK EHS Fax: +64 (0) 207611280 Email: letters@newscentis.com ‘mtn pee ei ene Ihrer bees tn inet oram anne mela 2S septrbr 2004 |News 27@wore. Cover story | Randomness In the lap of the go Whether you flip a coin or roll the dice, the outcome is utterly unpredictable. Or so we like to think. We rely on randomness. for cryptography, engineering, physics — and to explain the workings of some ecosystems. But is it quite what it seems? In this 10-page investigation, we take a closer look at random events and the part they play in our world, from quantum theory to coincidence. lan Stewart kicks things off witha provocative question: is randomness anything more than an invention of our superstitious minds? ‘THEhumanbrainiswonderfulat spotting patterns. I's an ability that sone ofthe foundationstones of science, When wenoticea pattern we try to pin itdown mathematically, and then use the ‘maths tohelp usunderstand the world around.us.Andifwecan'tspotapattern, ‘wedon'tputitsabsence down toignorance, Instead we allbackon our favourite alternative. Wecallitrandomness. ‘Weseeno patternsin the ossingofacoin, the rolling of dice, the spinofa roulette whee, sowecall them random, Untilreceatly we ‘saw no patterns in the weather, the onset of epidemics orthe turbulent flow ofa fluid, and ‘we called them random too. tturns out that “random” describes several different things: itmay be inherent, oit may simply reflect Jhumanignorance. Little more than a century ago ital, seemed straightforward. Some natural phenomena were ruled by physical laws: ‘the ombits of the planets, the rise and fall of ‘the tides. Others were not:the pattern of hallstonesona path, forexample, The first breach in the wall between orderand chacs was the discovery by Adolphe Quetelet around 1870 that thereare statistical patterns inrandomevents. The more recent discovery ‘of chaos~ apparently random behaviour in systems ruled by rigid aws~-demolished parts ‘of the wallcompletely. Whatever the ultimate resolution of orderandchaos may be, they cannot besimple opposites. ‘Yetwe stilan't seem toresst the temptation of discussing real-world processes ‘as they azeelther ordered or random. Isthe ‘weather truly random ordoesit have aspects ‘of pattern? Do dice really producerandom. ‘umbers or are they In fet deterministic? Physicists have made randomness the absolute basis of quantum mechanics, the science ofthe -very small: no one, they say, can predicewhen «radioactive atom willdecay.Butifthats true, what triggers the event? How does anatom “now’ when to decay? Toanswer these ‘questions, we must sort out what kind of randomness wearetalkingabout. > spt 004 |News |29.Cover story | Randomness “From the moment you toss a coin, its fate is determined” Isita genulne feature ofealty oran artefact cofhov we model reality? Let'sstart withthe simplest ideas. Asystem canbesaidtobe random if what it does next does not depend upon what ithas done in the ast. floss “Tal coinand get six headsina ow, the seventh toss can equally well beheads ortails, Conversely, asystem is ordered fits pasthistory affects its future ina predictable ‘vay. Wecan predictthe next sunrise to within, Iractions ofa second, andevery moralng we areright.So acoinisrandom but sunrises not The pattern of sunrise stems from the regular geometry ofthe Earth's orbit. ‘The statistical pattern ofa random cola fs more puzzling. Experimentsshow that inthe long run, beadsand tails turn up equally often, provided the coinisfair.Ifwethinkofthe probability faneventas the proportion of {Umes that thappens inalong series of rials, then both heads and ails have probability. ‘That's not actually how probability is defined, butitisasimple consequence ofthe technical definition, called thelaw of large numbers. ‘The way coin tosses even out in thelong run 4s purely statistical feature oflarge numbers oftosses (see“The law of averages’, below). ‘deeper question, with afar more puzzling answer, is: how does thecoin"know’ thatit should be equally likely come down heads as {alls? The answer, when youlook more closely, {is thata coln is nota random systemst all ‘We can model the coinasa thin, circular disc. fthe discislaunched vertically witha known speed anda known rateof rotation we canworkoutexactly how many balF-turnsit will make beforeit hits the flaorand comes torest. it bounces, the calculation isharder butia principle itcan be done, Atossedcoin, ‘sa classical mechanical system. Itobeys the same laws of motion and gravity that make the orbits of planets predictable. Sowhy isn't thecoin predictable? Well itis in principle. In practice, however, you der! tknow the upward speed or the rate of spin, and itsohappensthat the outcome isvery sensitive toboth. From the moment you tossa coin—ignoringwind,apassingcat and otherextraneous features itsfateis determined, But because you don'tknow the Seen aS E The law of averages you tossa "fa coin, thenin the Jong unheadsandtalsshould even ‘out Cllogualy this facts known asthe lawof average" anditis ‘often misapplied nichisay atin anor maw by that name, Hovey the aw of large numbers providesa sens in bl itis tee, ‘cin has no memory: fare tosieshappenwithout any input fam past ones. How ther, does the coin now" thatthe umber: should ven ‘ut? Mary people think hati cain has come up heads lotmoretimes than tals then tals becomes more ‘iely The wordy wise tink the ‘opposite: thecoins probably biased tonards heads.) But areas an 30 | Nese 25 septamber 205 perfectly easily prducea umf heads. Tone threw 17 consasie heads with ‘anomal coin an eventth probability Ain Bon. Soyouve gotafaircinbutyou have just thrown heads. How does ‘thonumber of tailsatc upto make ‘the proportion gua? Sure tails must now become mor ie? Nts Thenesttssisjustastiey to produce another head sata, andthe same goes forall subsequent tsss. Inthe long run, subsequent tosses sould be ery lose a half heads, hats So, in2nilion ational toss, ‘me pec, on average, milion heads ‘and millontal. Although 7 isvery diferent fom 0 ‘ote 01s proportionately much cose ta milion: heir ratios 00001, ory dose to Instead of tals ctthing Uupwith heads, the future tosses swamp theft fa, and the longer you keep tossing the lssimportant that inital difference becomes. owspapers publish Istsof how ‘roquenty numbers appear inthe U's lotto draws. tone tage 2 was relatively infrequent, reafocing the view thats is unlucky. Some people therfore expect to ome up more oftenin future Others think that iteunludines will peri. Themathonaticsof probability, supported by innumerable experiments, says both ampsare wrong. In future, all umber have the same hance of being pied. Theloteny machine tretal ballalike,andit oes “know” what number swriton onthem. Paradrialy, tat doesnot mean verynumber wil tun up equally often. rat equality s hight uri. Instnd we expect tose fuctuations bout the average vee, with some inners ond some losers. Thermathematicsevenpredicsthe size andtikainood of hose fluctuations ‘What themaths cart oi predict ‘hich numbers wilbe winners and ‘hich ses In advan, it could ‘equal well bear of ther. Ignore the newspaper tables: they belong toa dead pastand tell you nothing about whatwil happen innext eck’ dra. me rewsens.omaa AL speed orthe rate of spin, ou have no idea what thatinevitable fatels, even if youre incredibly quickatdoing the sums ‘dices the same, Youcan model itasa bouncing cube whose behaviour is mechanical andis govemned by deterministic equations. fyoucould monitor the initial motion accurately enoughanddo the sums fast enough you could predict theexact result. Something along these lines has been ddone forroulette, The prediction is ess precise - which halfof the wheel the ball willend up in but that’s good enough towln, and the resultsdon’thave tobe perfect to take the casino to the cleaners ‘When Albert Einstein questioned the randomness of quantum mechanics, refusing tobelieve that God throws dice, he chose entirely the wrong metaphor. He should have believed that God does play dice. Then he could have asked how the dice behave, where they are located, and what the zeal source of quantum “randomness is. Thereis, however, asecond layer tothe } , 1 Li problem, Thediffculty in predicting theroll ofa dice isnot just caused by ignoranceot the Initial conditions. It is made worse by the curious natureof the process: itis chaotic. Chaosis notrandom, butthe limitations on the accuracy of any meastirement we can make means ts unpzedictable. Ina random system, the past has no effect on the future. Ina chaotic system, the past does have aneffecton the future but the sums that ought tolet us work outwhat the effect will beare extremely sensitive to Uny observational errors. ‘Any initial error, however small, grows so rapidly thatit ruins he prediction. ‘Atossed coin sa bitlike that:a lange enoughezror in measuring the inital speed and spin rate wil stop us knowing the outcome. Buta coin isnot truly chaotic, because that error grows relatively slowly as the cofn turns in the at. na gentinely chaotic system, the error grows exponentially fst The sharp corners of dice, whlch come into play when the perfect mathematical cube bounces off the flat tabletop, introduce this kindof exponential divergence, Sodice seem random for two reasons: human ignorance of {Initial conditions as with the cola, and chaotic (though deterministic) dynamics Everything Ihave described sofarhas depended on the mathematical model that was chosen to describeit,Sadoes the randomness, ornot, of given physical system dependon the model you use? Toanswer that e's take alookat the first great success of random modelsin physics: statistical mechanics. This theory “underpins thermodynamies~ the physics of ses which was tosome extent motivated by the need tomake more efficient steam, engines, Howefficient cana steam engine get? ‘Thetmodynamicsimposes very specifics Inthe early days ofthermodynamics, attention was directed at large scale variables like volume, pressure, temperatureand quantities of eat. The so-called“ gaslaws” 5 epee 208 Newent 34Cover story | Randomness “It doesn’t seem to make any sense to say the system is or is not random” ‘connect these variables, Fornstance, Boyle's lave says thatthe pressure ofasample of gas ‘multiplied by its volume isconstant at any sven temperature. Thisisanentirely deterministic law: given the volumeyou ‘can calculate the pressure, or vie versa However, Itsoon became apparent that the _atomicscale physics of gases, which underlies ‘the gas las, iseffectively random: molecules ‘of gas bounce erratically offeach other. “Ludwig Boltzmann was the fsttoexplore how bouncing molecules, modelled as tiny hard spheres, relate tothe gas laws (and much else). ‘nhis theory, the classical varlables~ pressure, volumeand temperature-appearedas statistical averages that assumed an inherent randomness. Was thisasstumption justified? Justascoinsand diceare atroot deterministic, sos system composed of ast ‘numbers of tay hard spheres. tis cosme snooker, and each ball obeys the aws of ‘mechanics. Ifyou know the initial position and velocity of every sphere, the subsequent ‘motion is completely determined, But instead of trying to follow the precise path ofevery sphere, Boltzmann assumed thatthe positions and speeds ofthe spheres havea statistical pattern that ie not skewed in favour of any particular direction. Pressure, forexample, is ameasure of the average force exerted when. ‘thespheres bounce off the inner walls of thelr container, assuring thatthe spheres are ‘equally likely toe travelling inany direction, Statistical mechanics couches the deterministic motion of alazge number of spheres in terms of statistical measures, such ‘asanaverage. In other words, itusesa random ‘model on the microscopic level to justify ‘adeterministic model onthe macroscopic level. 1s that fair? The upside of randomness Randomnesis usual foked on asbeinga problem. Thinkof the fortmadeto remove noe rose inthe fih’ssensory neve celsimproved its ability to detoct Plankton. What happens thatthe this stk finding the lowest intina landscape The obvious approach taking the steepest frombi-fsystens,forinstanee. _nolsecan push theplankton'sweak downhill path can getyou stuck Buttherearecramstancesin elec sinalsoverthe theshold_invalleysthatarenotthe lowest Uhidhrandemnesscanimprove atwtichthe paddefsh an detect point. Random noise can shakeyou performance. n1999 David Russel, thom. neff, the noisvintrats_outofthese vais and enable lonWikensandFrarkMossofthe with hesignalandampifiesi._youto explore futhorpartsof the Univesity ofMisourat tous Inzome team fromBoston —_andscpe. This"simulated iscavered that an eet of University inddinglames Collins anneaing"isavery powerful too. randonmes called tochastic ——_andien Ly, founda medial Genetic algorithms are another tesonance an make ving applation ofthe same effec. ample. Here posible ules or ‘ceatures wor bette. Thiseffect salina glven problem are ‘2s proposed in the eat 1980535 random crossbred and the ‘medians for regulating the best performer arselctd, ‘cccurrnce of caps, but in1991 ‘twas realised tha slr effects Itmight seam tht these woud jst confuse the tac butthe rimicking Darwinian evolution. Mary practi problems such ‘ould in nerves. oppositeistu. the traveling sleman problem ~ Ruel and covworkers Therearemany ohermaysto finding theshortestroute that sudledthofeedingbehaviow of userandomnesstoadrantage ——_isitsaspeic list of ies, paddles which huntplankton Wen cents, Apr 1990, p 7). ‘orplacesonan decroniecirait yy detecting the electicfeis the Mary problems inengineringand ora micochip- canbe solved plankton eit-The researchers esehere require the optmisalon very effectively using genetic foundthatthe pesenceofrandom —ofsome quantity: mathematically, algorithms. 32 Newsnet 2005 Yess, though Boltzmann dide'tknow itatthe time. He effectively made two assertions: thatthe motion ofthe spheres is chaotic and thatthe chaos sof special kind that givesa well-defined average state Avholebranch of mathematics, ergodic theory grew from these ideas and the mathematics has advanced tothe stage where Boltzmann's hypothesis nowa theorem. The change of viewpointhereis fascinating An initially deterministic model (¢he gas laws) as refined toa random one {ciny sphere) andtherandomness wasthen justified mathematicallyasa consequence “ofdeterministic dynamics Soare gases really random or not? Ika depends on your point of view. Some aspects are best modelled statistically cthersare best modelled deterministic ‘There sno one answer, lt dependson the context. This situation ienotatall unusual Forsome purpores calculating the airflow coverthe space shuttie,forexample~afludcan bbe considered asa continuum, obeying deterministic laws. For othe purposes, suchas Brownian motion theerratic _movementof suspended particles caused by atoms bouncing inte them the atonaic ature ofthe Mud mustbetakenintoaccouatand ‘Boltzmann like modelisappropriate Sowehavetwodiffeentmodelswitha ‘mathematical inkbetween them. Neitheris reality butboth describe itwell And it doesn't seem to make any sense tosay thatthe realty isorisnot random: randomnestisa mathematical feature of how we thinksbout thesystem nota feature of the system itself Quantum roots Soisnothing truly random? Until we understand the roots ofthe quantum world, ‘wecan't say forsure.Inits usual interpretations, quantum mechanics asserts that deep down, on the subatomiclevel, the ‘universe is genuinely and ireducibty random. cisnotlike the hard-spheres modelof ‘thermodynamic randomness, which traces the statistical featuresto our (unavoidable) {ignorance of the precisestate of all the spheres. mrewsens.om