What are clients curious about?

By Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research

Edition 14
Who Moved the Cheese?
A Visual Guide to 2023's Market Movements

Best Quantitative Best Quantitative

Research Desk in Research Desk in
Sub title India India
Asia Money Brokers Asia Money Brokers
Poll – 2023 Poll – 2022
Link Link

December 29th, 2023

Abhilash Pagaria
abhilash.pagaria@nuvama.com
Head - Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research
Who Moved the Cheese? A Visual Guide to 2023's Market Movements
In our Calendar year-end report, we illuminate market trends with:

1. A 26-year heat-map showcasing India's sector performance at end of each CY.

2. A 17-year global market heat-map.

3. A 17-year Asset Return Quilt.

4. 13 years of institutional flow insights in domestic markets.

5. Key stocks and sectors influencing this year's domestic indices.

Note - For the heat maps, we used Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 due to their extensive historical data. In the Index contributors slides, we opted for Nifty Midcap 150 and
Smallcap 250 for broader benchmarking and clarity.

2
Indian Sectoral Performance Heatmap In CY23 – CPSE , Realty and Smallcaps
dominated the momentum. Laggards
were Oil&Gas and Pvt Banks.

Indian Sectoral Performance Heatmap - 26 Calendar Years

Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research

Period Nifty Cap Cons Fin Health Oil & PSU Public
Nifty 50 Sensex Next 50 Nifty 500 Midcap Smallcap Auto CPSE Energy FMCG Industrial Infra IT Media Metal Pharma Power Pvt Bank Realty Telecom
CY Bank Goods Durable Service care Gas Bank Sector
23 20 19 12 26 26 47 56 48 67 26 74 29 13 29 37 69 60 24 20 19 13 34 33 32 55 14 82 31
22 4 4 21 (0) 3 4 (14) 15 16 (11) 14 14 10 18 (12) 20 15 (26) (10) 22 17 (11) 26 71 23 21 (11) (4)
21 24 22 13 30 30 46 59 19 53 47 34 34 14 10 21 67 52 60 35 70 24 10 69 44 41 5 54 43
20 15 16 (3) 15 17 22 21 11 11 22 (15) 6 4 13 61 18 8 55 (9) 16 (4) 61 7 (31) (17) (3) 5 14
19 12 14 18 0 8 (4) (10) (11) (10) 21 (6) 11 26 (1) (4) (8) (9) 8 (30) (11) 7 (9) (4) (18) (4) 16 28 13
18 3 6 6 (9) (3) (15) (29) (23) (2) (9) (22) 1 11 14 (6) (19) (20) 24 (26) (20) (16) (8) (16) (17) (21) 8 (33) (41)
17 29 28 41 45 36 47 57 31 40 102 18 39 41 29 0 38 38 12 33 49 34 (6) 20 24 19 41 110 49
16 3 2 7 7 4 7 2 11 (3) (6) 17 20 5 3 (13) 1 14 (7) (1) 45 27 (14) 2 4 13 7 (4) (21)
15 (4) (5) (10) 7 (1) 6 7 (0) (9) 24 (10) (1) (5) 0 15 (6) (7) (0) 10 (31) (3) 9 (6) (33) (17) (3) (15) 3
14 31 30 65 44 38 56 55 57 50 66 9 57 18 48 55 18 33 7 12 43 23 67 39 68 10 9
13 7 9 (9) 5 4 (5) (8) 9 (6) (25) 0 (7) 12 21 (4) 58 1 (14) 4 27 (15) (30) (19) (3) (34) 18
12 28 26 57 48 32 39 37 42 35 46 14 51 49 37 37 (2) 59 18 13 32 11 41 15 67 53 (3)
11 (25) (25) (32) (32) (27) (31) (34) (19) (48) (17) (29) (29) 9 (14) (45) (18) (33) (48) (29) (10) (40) (42) (33) (25) (52) (16)
10 18 17 31 18 14 19 18 35 9 68 3 30 31 34 12 29 4 0 1 35 (6) 34 (1) 36 (22) 2
09 76 81 81 128 89 99 107 194 104 98 61 89 42 76 123 166 82 227 73 59 74 73 81 102 71 (7)
08 (52) (52) (49) (64) (57) (59) (71) (55) (65) (72) (48) (55) (20) (35) (69) (55) (69) (74) (55) (26) (60) (41) (50) (57) (49)
07 55 47 64 76 63 77 87 5 117 95 97 83 22 17 92 (11) 61 139 115 15 122 70 73 92 82
06 40 47 33 28 34 29 42 28 56 9 20 40 17 19 49 39 74 94 40 25 41 16 12 54 56
05 36 42 30 24 36 35 62 51 94 115 31 36 59 33 3 40 1 19 22
04 11 13 35 31 18 25 28 8 1 (3) 25 (0) 17 15
03 72 73 111 141 98 138 168 93 128 31 23 127 83 144
02 3 4 41 9 10 24 48 19 57 (13) 4 72 5 74
01 (16) (18) (11) (46) (23) (20) (31) (10) (38) (14) (3)
00 (15) (21) (24) (35) (2) (30) (34)
99 67 64 98 19 492
98 (18) (16) (9) 23 194
Max 76 81 111 141 98 138 107 194 168 115 74 128 89 59 76 123 60 492 82 227 127 83 122 73 144 102 110 82
Min (52) (52) (49) (64) (57) (59) (71) (55) (65) (72) (22) (48) (55) (20) (35) (69) (20) (55) (69) (74) (55) (26) (60) (42) (50) (57) (52) (49)
Avg 16 16 24 23 20 28 23 24 29 30 12 23 22 15 17 24 17 41 13 27 19 17 16 15 20 24 16 10
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg

3
Asset Class Returns Quilt
In CY22, Smallcaps lagged, but in
CY23,they had sharp bounce,
likely boosted by massive
HNI/Retail participation.

Asset Class Returns Quilt - 17 Calendar Years (USD Terms) | Sorted by CY23 Performance
Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research
Asset Class 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Smallcap 110 (76) 117 22 (44) 33 (19) 52 2 (0) 67 (35) (11) 18 56 (22) 55
Midcap 99 (67) 108 24 (42) 35 (16) 53 2 4 57 (23) (6) 19 43 (7) 46
Nifty 500 82 (65) 97 19 (39) 28 (8) 35 (5) 1 45 (11) 5 14 28 (7) 25
MSCI ACWI 10 (44) 32 10 (9) 13 20 2 (4) 6 22 (11) 24 14 17 (20) 20
Nifty 50 74 (61) 84 23 (37) 24 (5) 29 (8) 0 37 (5) 10 12 22 (6) 19
Gold 31 2 30 28 11 9 (15) (10) (11) 8 12 (1) 21 25 (6) 3 15
India Long Treasury 6 30 (10) 7 4 14 (0) 21 7 17 2 9 12 14 2 3 8
MSCI EM 36 (54) 74 16 (20) 15 (5) (5) (17) 9 34 (17) 15 16 (5) (22) 7
Cash (T-Bill) 7 8 4 5 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 5 7
US Treasury 9 14 (4) 6 10 2 (3) 5 1 1 2 1 7 8 (2) (12) 4
Commodity 11 (37) 19 17 (13) (1) (10) (17) (25) 11 1 (13) 5 (4) 27 14 (12)
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg | Calender Year ends (31st December) & Cash (T-Bill) 12M Aggregate yields have been considered | Sorted by CY23 performance

4
Global Indices Performance In CY23, the MSCI DM outperformed the EM largely due to the U.S.'s
strong performance, making up 70% wt of DM.
Meanwhile, the EM, led by China, languishes.

Global Indices Peformance Heatmap - 17 Calender Years | Sorted by CY23 Performance

Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research
Category Name 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MSCI DM 7 (42) 27 10 (8) 13 24 3 (3) 5 20 (10) 25 14 20 (19) 22
MSCI ACWI (EM + DM) 10 (44) 32 10 (9) 13 20 2 (4) 6 22 (11) 24 14 17 (20) 20
Global Benchmark
MSCI EM 36 (54) 74 16 (20) 15 (5) (5) (17) 9 34 (17) 15 16 (5) (22) 7
ASEAN 40 31 (49) 65 24 (6) 16 (7) 3 (22) 6 29 (8) 5 (11) 3 2 1
Smallcap 110 (76) 117 22 (44) 33 (19) 52 2 (0) 67 (35) (11) 18 56 (23) 56
Midcap 99 (67) 108 24 (42) 35 (16) 53 2 4 57 (23) (6) 19 43 (7) 47
500 82 (65) 97 19 (39) 28 (8) 35 (5) 1 45 (11) 5 14 28 (7) 25
India
MSCI India 71 (65) 100 19 (38) 24 (5) 22 (7) (3) 37 (9) 6 14 25 (8) 19
Nifty 50 74 (61) 84 23 (37) 24 (5) 29 (8) 0 37 (5) 10 12 22 (6) 19
Bank 84 (59) 89 36 (43) 52 (19) 61 (14) 5 50 (3) 16 (5) 11 10 11
Brazil - Bovespa 73 (55) 145 6 (27) (2) (27) (13) (42) 69 25 (2) 27 (20) (18) 10 33
Taiwan - Weighted 9 (47) 83 20 (24) 13 9 2 (14) 13 26 (11) 26 31 26 (30) 28
Korea - KOSPI 31 (57) 66 26 (13) 19 2 (8) (5) 1 37 (21) 4 39 (5) (29) 16
Vietnam - VHI 33 (70) 51 (36) (52) (2) 18 20 (8) (1) 46 (13) (2) 93 137 (57) 9
Emerging Pack Indonesia - JCI 46 (58) 117 53 1 7 (22) 20 (21) 18 20 (9) 6 (6) 8 (5) 7
Singapore - STI 27 (49) 68 20 (18) 27 (3) 1 (20) (2) 28 (12) 6 (10) 8 4 1
Philippines - PSEI 44 (55) 68 45 4 42 (7) 23 (8) (7) 24 (17) 8 (3) (6) (15) (1)
China - Shanghai 110 (63) 80 (11) (18) 4 (4) 49 5 (18) 14 (29) 21 21 8 (23) (5)
Thailand - SET 35 (49) 70 56 (5) 40 (11) 12 (22) 21 25 (11) 10 (8) 3 (3) (14)
US - NASDAQ 10 (41) 44 17 (2) 16 38 13 6 8 28 (4) 35 44 21 (33) 44
US - S&P500 4 (38) 23 13 (0) 13 30 11 (1) 10 19 (6) 29 16 27 (19) 24
Germany - DAX 36 (43) 26 7 (17) 32 31 (10) (2) 3 28 (22) 23 14 7 (16) 23
Japan - Nikkei225 (6) (28) 16 10 (12) 10 28 (6) 8 4 23 (10) 20 22 (6) (22) 20
France - CAC40 12 (45) 26 (10) (19) 17 23 (13) (3) 2 25 (15) 24 1 20 (14) 19
Developed Markets
US - Russel2000 (3) (35) 25 25 (5) 15 37 4 (6) 19 13 (12) 24 18 14 (21) 17
US - Dow Jones 6 (34) 19 11 6 7 26 8 (2) 13 25 (6) 22 7 19 (9) 14
US - NYSE 7 (41) 25 11 (6) 13 23 4 (6) 9 16 (11) 22 4 18 (11) 11
FTSE 100 5 (50) 35 5 (6) 11 17 (8) (10) (4) 18 (18) 17 (12) 13 (9) 8
HK - Hang Seng 40 (49) 54 6 (22) 22 5 0 (7) (1) 37 (17) 12 13 (16) (18) (14)
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg | Sorted by CY23 performance
5
Instituitional Flows (INR Bn)
For three successive years, MFs in
India have hugely supported the
markets. This is led by strong
flows by retail via SIP route.

Nifty Level Nifty % Flows (INR Bn)

CY
at Year End Chg in CY FII DII MF Insurance
CY23 21,731 20 1,258 1,840 1,753 87
CY22 18,105 4 (1,503) 2,767 1,843 924
CY21 17,354 24 (545) 946 754 191
CY20 13,982 15 1,012 (380) (591) 211
CY19 12,168 12 759 402 496 (94)
CY18 10,863 3 (530) 1,094 1,205 (111)
CY17 10,531 29 115 908 1,186 (277)
CY16 8,186 3 103 371 472 (101)
CY15 7,946 (4) (36) 676 703 (28)
CY14 8,283 31 847 (303) 238 (541)
CY13 6,304 7 1,010 (735) (221) (514)
CY12 5,905 28 1,181 (569) (204) (365)
CY11 4,624 (25) (17) 278 60 218
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg
6
Nifty 50 – Index contributors
In CY23, Nifty 50 index is up by 20%

Top leaders mentioned in following table contributed to Top 5 sectors contributed to 72% of the index
69% of the index movement. movement. For Instance – Financial contributed 19% and
Consumer Discretionary ~17%.
Nifty 50
Top Leaders Top Laggards Nifty 50 - Sector Contribution
% Contribution Price % Contribution Price Communication
Name Name Services, 3.5
to Index Chg % to Index Chg %
Larsen & Toubro 11.1 68 Adani Enterp. (1.6) (26) Health Care, 4.9
ITC 8.0 43 UPL (0.4) (17) Financials, 19.0
Reliance Industr 6.5 12 Utilities, 7.3
NTPC 4.7 96
Tata Motors 4.6 105
Materials, 7.6
ICICI Bank 4.4 11
TCS 4.3 20
HDFC Bank 4.1 5 Consumer
Industrials, 10.7 Discretionary, 16.7
Bharti Airtel 3.5 27
HCL Technologies 3.2 46
Information
Titan Company 3.0 44 Technology, 11.6
Axis Bank 3.0 18 Consumer Staples,
Energy, 11.9 12.3
M&M 2.8 40
Coal India 2.6 85 Sectors as per GICS Classification | Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg
UltraTech Cem. 2.6 50
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg

7
Nifty 100 – Index contributors
In CY23, Nifty 100 index is up by 20%

Top leaders mentioned in following table contributed to Top 5 sectors contributed to 78% of the index
58% of the index movement. movement. For Instance – Financial contributed 20% and was one
the reasons for U/P as most financials lagged in CY23.

Nifty 100
Top Leaders Top Laggards Nifty 100 - Sector Contribution
% Contribution Price % Contribution Price
Name Name Real Estate, 1.2
to Index Chg % to Index Chg % Utilities, 0.9
Communication
Larsen & Toubro 9.4 68 Adani Total Gas (4.2) (74) Services, 3.4
ITC 6.8 43 Adani Energy Sol (2.4) (61) Financials, 20.1
Health Care, 4.3
Reliance Industr 5.4 12 Adani Enterp. (1.3) (26)
Materials, 7.3
NTPC 4.0 96 Adani Green (0.6) (18)
Tata Motors 3.9 105 UPL (0.3) (17)
ICICI Bank 3.7 11 ACC (0.2) (18) Information
TCS 3.6 20 Bandhan Bank (0.2) (20) Technology, 9.9

HDFC Bank 3.4 5 Biocon (0.1) (23)

Bharti Airtel 2.9 26
HCL Technologies 2.7 46 Energy, 11.2
Consumer
Titan Company 2.6 44 Discretionary, 18.2
Axis Bank 2.5 18 Consumer Staples,
M&M 2.4 40 13.6 Industrials, 14.5
Coal India 2.2 85 Sectors as per GICS Classification | Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg
UltraTech Cem. 2.2 50
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg

8
Nifty Midcap 150 – Index contributors
In CY23, Nifty Midcap 150 index is up by 43%

Top leaders mentioned in following table contributed to Top 5 sectors contributed to 78% of the index
37% of the index movement. movement. For Instance – Financial contributed 27% and was led
by PFC and REC. While Energy pack was a laggards.
Nifty Midcap 150
Top Leaders Top Laggards Nifty Midcap 150 - Sector Contribution
% Contribution Price % Contribution Price
Name Name Communication Consumer Staples,
to Index Chg % to Index Chg % Services, 2.3 0.3
Power Fin.Corpn. 5.2 265 Rajesh Exports (0.6) (48) Energy, 2.4
REC Ltd 4.9 287 Adani Wilmar (0.4) (36) Real Estate, 5.8
Adani Power 3.3 184 Page Industries (0.4) (10) Financials, 27.1
Utilities, 6.1
Persistent Sys 2.4 95 Canara Bank (0.3) (12)
Aurobindo Pharma 2.4 150 Aditya Bir. Fas. (0.3) (23)
Information
Max Healthcare 2.2 51 Atul (0.2) (14) Technology, 7.2
Shriram Finance 2.1 46 Crompton Gr. Con (0.2) (8)
Trent 2.0 53 Honeywell Auto (0.1) (11)
Materials, 10.5
BHEL 1.9 146 Carborundum Uni. (0.1) (6)
Industrials, 15.2
Lupin 1.8 81 Indian Energy Ex (0.1) (8)
Polycab India 1.7 115 Sumitomo Chemi. (0.1) (14) Health Care, 12.1
Consumer
Supreme Inds. 1.7 83 One 97 (0.1) 1
Discretionary, 12.7
CG Power & Indu. 1.6 72 Navin Fluo.Intl. (0.1) (5)
IRFC 1.6 205 Alembic Pharma (0.1) (19) Sectors as per GICS Classification | Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg
Coforge 1.5 63 Vinati Organics (0.1) (12)
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg

9
Nifty Smallcap 250 – Index contributors
In CY23, Nifty Smallcap 250 index is up by 48%

Top leaders mentioned in following table contributed to Top 5 sectors contributed to 86% of the index
34% of the index movement. movement. For Instance – Industrial and I.T. led the rally while few new
age fin names like BSE, Angel One & CDSL kept Financial share higher.

Nifty Smallcap 250

Top Leaders Top Laggards
% Contribution Price % Contribution Price Nifty Smallcap 250 - Sector Contribution
Name Name
to Index Chg % to Index Chg % Real Estate, 2.3 Energy, 1.1
Suzlon Energy 5.6 276 City Union Bank (0.5) (15) Communication
Consumer Staples,
BSE 5.0 319 Brightcom Group (0.3) (34) 3.0 Services, 0.6
Cyient 2.7 184 UTI AMC (0.3) 5
Utilities, 3.1
KEI Industries 2.3 126 Delta Corp (0.2) (29) Industrials, 27.0
Angel One 2.3 167 Fine Organic (0.2) (12) Consumer
Discretionary, 5.9
Sonata Software 2.0 169 V-Mart Retail (0.2) (29)
Multi Comm. Exc. 1.9 109 Timken India (0.2) (12)
Health Care, 9.7
Jindal Stain. 1.7 110 Sh.Renuka Sugar (0.2) (18)
IDFC 1.7 82 AAVAS Financiers (0.2) (11)
KPIT Technologi. 1.6 63 Campus Activewe. (0.2) (32)
Birlasoft Ltd 1.5 148 Usha Martin (0.2) (14)
Materials, 11.9
Glenmark Pharma. 1.4 103 Polyplex Corpn (0.2) (32) Financials, 25.2
Exide Inds. 1.4 82 Easy Trip Plann. (0.1) (26) Information
CDSL 1.4 65 Hinduja Global (0.1) (26) Technology, 12.0

RBL Bank 1.3 58 Dhani Services (0.1) (38) Sectors as per GICS Classification | Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg

10
Nifty 500 – Index contributors
In CY23, Nifty 500 index is up by 26%

Top leaders mentioned in following table contributed to Top 5 sectors contributed to 73% of the index
35% of the index movement. movement. Table clearly reflects diverse sectoral contribution
with three consistent leaders.
Nifty 500
Top Leaders Top Laggards
Nifty 500 - Sector Contribution
% Contribution Price % Contribution Price
Name Name
to Index Chg % to Index Chg % Real Estate, 2.5
Utilities, 2.5
Larsen & Toubro 5.6 69 Adani Total Gas (2.5) (74)
ITC 4.1 43 Adani Energy Sol (1.4) (61) Communication
Services, 2.7
Reliance Industr 3.3 12 Adani Enterp. (0.8) (25) Financials, 22.6
NTPC 2.4 96 Adani Green (0.4) (18) Health Care, 7.0
Tata Motors 2.3 104 UPL (0.2) (17)
ICICI Bank 2.2 11 Rajesh Exports (0.1) (48) Energy, 7.5
TCS 2.2 21 Adani Wilmar (0.1) (41)
HDFC Bank 2.0 5 Page Industries (0.1) (10)
Consumer Staples,
Bharti Airtel 1.7 26 Aditya Bir. Fas. (0.1) (23) 8.6
HCL Technologies 1.6 47 ACC (0.1) (10)
Industrials, 16.5
Titan Company 1.5 44 City Union Bank (0.1) (15) Materials, 8.9
Axis Bank 1.5 18 Atul (0.1) (14)
Consumer
M&M 1.4 39 Avenue Super. (0.1) (3) Information
Discretionary, 15.2
Technology, 9.5
Power Fin.Corpn. 1.3 266 Crompton Gr. Con (0.1) (8)
Sectors as per GICS Classification | Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg
Coal India 1.3 85 AAVAS Financiers (0.0) (18)
Source: Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research; Bloomberg

11
Thank You!!!
Wishing you an enriching 2024.

12
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This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Nuvama Investment Advisors (Hong Kong) Private Limited (NIAHK) (Previously Edelweiss Securities (Hong Kong) Private Limited (ESHK)), a licensed corporation (BOM -874) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong
Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to Section 116(1) of the Securities and Futures Ordinance “SFO”. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified
or exempt from registration. The report also does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any individual recipients. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are
not located in Hong Kong and is/are not licensed to carry on regulated activities in Hong Kong and does not / do not hold themselves out as being able to do so.

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