UNIT I

BASICS OF METEOROLOGY
 Defining Meteorology

“Meteoro” means ‘above the earth’s surface’ (atmosphere)

“logy” means ‘indicating science’. Branch of science dealing
with that of atmosphere is known as meteorology.
Lower atmosphere extending up to 20km from earth’s
surface is where frequent physical process takes place.
In other words, the physical state of the atmosphere at a
given place and time is referred to as “weather”.

The study of weather is called ‘meteorology’. It is often

quoted as the “physics of atmosphere
 Weather and Climate
• Weather: Physical state of the atmosphere at a given
place and given time. E.g. Cloudy day

•Climate: Long term regime of atmospheric variables of a

given place or area. Eg. Cold season
 Agricultural meteorology
1. A branch of applied meteorology which investigates the
physical conditions of the environment of growing plants
or animal organisms
2. An applied science which deals with the relationship
between weather/climatic conditions and agricultural
production.
3. A science concerned with the application of
meteorology to the measurement and analysis of the
physical environment in agricultural systems. The word
‘Agro meteorology’ is the abbreviated form of
agricultural meteorology.
4. To study the interaction between meteorological and
hydrological factors on the one hand and agriculture in
the widest sense, including horticulture, animal
husbandry and forestry on the other (WMO).
 IMPORTANCE TO CROP
PRODUCTION
1. Helps in planning cropping patterns/systems.
2. Selection of sowing dates for optimum crop yields.
3. Cost effective ploughing, harrowing, weeding etc.
4. Reducing losses of applied chemicals and fertilizers.
5. Judicious irrigation to crops.
6. Efficient harvesting of all crops.
7. Reducing or eliminating outbreak of pests and diseases.
8. Efficient management of soils which are formed out of
weather action.
9. Managing weather abnormalities like cyclones, heavy
rainfall, floods, drought etc. This can be achieved by
• (a) Protection: When rain is predicted- avoid irrigation.
But, when frost is predicted- apply irrigation.
• (b) Avoidance: Avoid fertilizer and chemical sprays when
rain is predicted
• (c) Mitigation: Use shelter belts against cold and heat.

10. Effective environmental protection.

11. Avoiding or minimizing losses due to forest fires.

 Weather Elements
• Solar radiation
• temperature
• Pressure
• Wind
• Humidity
• Rainfall
• Evaporation etc. are highly variable.
• These change constantly sometimes from hour to hour
and at other times from day to day.
• The aspects involved if are for larger areas like a zone,
a state, a country is described by normal.
• The climatic normals are generally worked out for a
period of 30 years.
 Light
• Light is the visible portion of the solar spectrum with
wavelength range is from 0.39 to 0.76μ.
• Light is one of the important climatic factors for many vital
functions of the plant. It is essential for the synthesis of the
most important pigment i.e. Chlorophyll which absorbs the
radiant energy and converts it into potential energy of
carbohydrate. The carbohydrate thus formed is the
connecting link between solar energy and living world.
• In addition, it regulates the important physiological
functions. The characteristics of light viz. intensity, quality,
duration and direction are important for crops.
 Energy balance or heat balance
• The net radiation is the difference between total
incoming and outgoing radiations and is a measure of
the energy available at the ground surface.
• It is the energy available at the earth’s surface to drive
the processes of evaporation, air and soil heat fluxes as
well as other smaller energy consuming processes such
as photosynthesis and respiration.
• The net radiation over crop is as follows.
• Rn = G + H + LE + PS + M
Rn is net radiation, G is surface soil heat flux, H is
sensible heat flux, LE is latent heat flux, PS and M are
energy fixed in plants by photosynthesis and energy
involved in respiration, respectively .
 Temperature
• It is defined as the measure of the average speed of
atoms and molecules.
Heat
• Aggregate internal energy of motion of all molecules of a
body.
• Amount of energy transferred from one object to another
because of the temperature between them.
• When two objects are brought into thermal contact, heat
will flow between them until they come
into equilibrium with each other.
• Heat transfer occurs by conduction or by thermal
radiation.
 Heat Units
• It is a measure of relative warmth of growing season of a
given length.
• Indicated as Growing Degree Days (GDD).
• Growing degrees (GDs) is defined as the mean daily
temperature above a certain threshold base temperature
accumulated on a daily basis over a period of time.
• A heat unit is the departure from the mean daily
temperature above the minimum threshold temperature.
Heat Units = ((Maximum Temp. + Minimum Temp.)/2) –
Threshold Temp
• The minimum threshold temperature is the temperature
below which no growth takes place.
• Usually ranges from 4.5 to 12.5 ºC for different crops (Most
commonly used value is 6.0ºC)
 HEAT INJURIES
• There are two general types of heat injury
a. Injury from direct heat causes the cells of the plant to
collapse and the plant to topple over and die.
b. Indirect injury causes disturbances in the plant's meta- bolic
processes, such as the denaturation of proteins.
• ‘Thermal death point’ – the temperature at which the plant
cell gets killed when the temperature ranges from 50-60°C.
• This varies with plant species. The aquatic and shade loving
plants are killed at comparatively lower temperature (40°C).
 Role of temperature in crop
production
1. Influence on distribution of crop plants and vegetation.
2. Surface air temperature influences all stages of crop
during its growth development and reproductive phase.
3. Air temperature affects leaf production, expansion and
flowering.
4. The diffusion rates of gases and liquid changes with
temperature.
5. Solubility of different substances is dependent on
temperature.
6. Biochemical reactions in crops (double or more with
each 10°C rise) are influenced by air temperature.
7. Equilibrium of various systems and compounds is a
function of temperature.
8. Temperature affects the stability of enzymatic systems
in the plants.
9. Most of the higher plants grow between 0°C – 60°C
however, maximum dry matter is produced between 20 and
30°C
10. At high temperature and high humidity, most of the crop
plants are affected by pests and diseases.
11. High night temperature increases respiration and
metabolism.
12. A short duration crop becomes medium duration or long
duration crop depending upon its environmental
temperature under which it is grown.
13. Most of the crops have upper and lower limits of
temperature below or above which, they may not come up
and an optimum temperature when the crop growth is
maximum. These are known as cardinal temperatures and
 Soil temperature
The sown seeds, plant roots and micro organisms live in the
soil.
Effects of soil temperature on plant growth
•Soil temperature affects the germination and growth of crops
•Soil temperature has a profound influence on root and shoot
growth, and nutrient uptake by crops.
•Low soil temperature reduces water intake of water by roots.
•Extreme soil temperatures injures plant and its growth is
effected.
•Nutrient transformation and nutrient availability are controlled
by soil temperature and soil moisture.
• Soil temperature varies with time and depth, and is
determined by the radiation reaching the soil surface,
the quality of the surface thermal conductivity and heat
capacity of the soil.
• At a constant moisture content, a decrease in
temperature results in a decrease in water and nutrient
uptake.
• At low temperatures, transport from the root to the shoot
and vice versa is reduced.
 Factors controlling soil temperature

• Soil moisture
• Soil colour
• Slope of the land
• Vegetative cover
• General soil tilth.
Aeration can be used to control soil temperature, regulate
soil moisture, improve drainage, stimulate microbial
activity and improve overall soil tilth
 Humidity
• The amount of water vapour that is present in
atmosphere is known as atmospheric moisture or
humidity.
Specific humidity
• Weight of water vapour per unit weight of moist air. It is
expressed as grams of water vapour per kilogram of air
(g/kg).
 Relative Humidity
• The ratio between the amount of water vapour present in a
given volume of air and the amount of water vapour
required for saturation under fixed temperature and
pressure.
• There are no units and this is expressed as percentage.
• In other terms it is the ratio of the air’s water vapour content
to its maximum water vapour capacity at a given
temperature expressed in percentage.
• The relative humidity gives only the degree of saturation of
air.
• The relative humidity of saturated air is 100 per cent.
 Precipitation
• Precipitation includes all water which falls from
atmosphere such as rainfall, snow, hail, fog and dew.
• Rainfall one of the most important factor influences the
vegetation of a place.
• Total precipitation in amount and distribution greatly
affects the choice of a cultivated species in a place.
• In heavy and evenly distributed rainfall areas, crops like
rice in plains and tea, coffee and rubber in Western Ghats
are grown.
• Low and uneven distribution of rainfall is common in
dryland farming where drought resistance crops like pearl
millet, sorghum and minor millets are grown.
• In desert areas grasses and shrubs are common where hot
desert climate exists
• Though the rainfall has major influence on yield of crops,
yields are not always directly proportional to the amount
of precipitation as excess above optimum reduces the
yields.
• Distribution of rainfall is more important than total
rainfall to have longer growing period especially in
drylands.
 Wind velocity
• The basic function of wind is to carry moisture and heat.
• The moving wind not only supplies moisture and heat, also
supplies fresh CO2 for the photosynthesis.
• Wind movement for 4 – 6 km/hour is suitable for more
crops.
• When wind speed is enormous then there is mechanical
damage of the crops (i.e.) it removes leaves and twigs and
damages crops like banana, sugarcane.
• Wind dispersal of pollen and seeds is natural and
necessary for certain crops.
• Causes soil erosion.
• Helps in cleaning produce to farmers.
• Increases evaporation.
• Spread of pest and diseases
SOIL PLANT ATMOSPHERIC CONTINUUM
• Soil plant water relationships relate to the properties of
soil and plant that affect the movement, retention and
use of water.
• Soil serves as the storage reservoir for water.
• Plants extract daily water requirements for proper
growth and development.
• As plants continue to use water, the available supply
decline and diminishes unless more water is added by
rainfall or irrigation.
 SPAC
• The soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) is the
pathway for water moving from soil through plants to
the atmosphere.
• Continuum in the description highlights the continuous
nature of water connection through the pathway.
• The low water potential of the atmosphere, and relatively
higher (i.e. less negative) water potential inside leaves,
leads to a diffusion gradient across the stomatal pores
of leaves, drawing water out of the leaves as vapour.
• As water vapour transpires out of the leaf, further water
molecules evaporate off the surface of mesophyll cells to
replace the lost molecules since water leaves is maintained
at saturation vapour pressure.
• Water lost at the surface of cells is replaced by water from
the xylem which due to the cohesion-tension properties of
water in the xylem of plants pulls additional water
molecules through the xylem from the roots toward the leaf
Soil – Plant – Atmosphere continuum

Plants create “unbroken” column of water driven by plant

transpiration
SPAC
 The Process

•The movement of water from the soil, into the roots, through
the xylem and from the leaf into the atmosphere, occurs
because of a series of water potential gradients.

•The system that involves the soil, the plant’s roots, the xylem,
the leaf and the atmosphere, is called the soil-plant-
atmosphere continuum (SPAC), which is a pathway for the
movement of water from the soil into the atmosphere.

•Water flows from soil to roots through xylem, mesophyll and

wall cells, and it evaporates through stomata, into the
atmosphere.
• The value of the water potential is higher (less negative) in
the soil and decreases along the transpiration pathway.
• The water potential values in the different elements of the
system (saturated and unsaturated soil, plant’s roots, plant’s
xylem, plant’s leaves, atmosphere) are determining a series
of water potential gradients that are the driving forces for
water movement.

Water potential
Refers to the ability of water to move in soil
More water in soil = More water potential
At saturation, potential is near 0 (zero)
As soil dries, values become more negative
Water is held more tightly by soil
 Soil water potential

The SWP potential is defined as the potential energy of water

in soil
The total SWP (ψt) is determined by a variety of forces acting
on the soil water, including gravitational (ψg), matric (capillary
and adsorptive, ψm), osmotic (ψo) and hydrostatic (ψh).

ψt = ψg + ψm + ψo + ψh

The gravitational potential is determined by the elevation of

the soil water with respect to the chosen reference elevation,
which is usually the soil surface.
The matric potential is determined by the forces exerted by
the soil matrix (soil particles) on water, which are capillary and
adsorptive forces.
 The osmotic potential is given by the presence of solutes in
the soil solution, which decrease the potential energy of
water.
 The hydrostatic potential (also called pressure potential) is
determined by a pressure exerted by overlaying water over a
point of interest in the soil.
• Usually the SWP is expressed as a negative number
because it represents the energy required to transfer the soil
water to the reference state described above.
• The term “suction” and “tension” are definitions developed
to avoid using the negative sign and to represent the SWP
as positive numbers.
• However, in this review, the negative sign will be retained
and the property will be called water potential.
 TYPES OF SOIL WATER
1. Hygroscopic water - water held tightly to the surface
of soil particles by adsorption forces.
2. Capillary water - water held by the forces of surface
tension and continuous films around soil particles and
in the capillary spaces. It is held between 1/3 to 31
atm. However between 15-31 atm, the movement of
water is very slow and beyond 15 atm, it is not
available to plants.
3. Gravitational water - water that moves freely in
response to gravity and drains out of the soil. This
water is held in the soil at tension of one third of atm
(1/3 atm).
Out of the three forms, only capillary and to some
extent gravitational water is available to plants.
Hygroscopic water is not available to plants.
 Terminologies
•Saturation capacity: when all the soil pores are filled with
water, the soil is said to be under saturation capacity or
maximum water holding capacity. The tension of water at
this point is almost zero.
•Field capacity: This situation exists 2-3 days after the soil
is wetted by rainfall or irrigation. The soil moisture tension
is around 1/3 atm.
•Permanent Wilting Point (PWP): It is the moisture content
at which plants can not obtain enough moisture to meet
transpiration requirement and remain wilted. The soil
moisture tension at PWP is 15 atm.
•Available water: Soil moisture between FC and PWP is
referred as available water.
 Pattern of Water Removal
Plants will use water near the surface first
As surface dries, plant roots grow deeper.

Measuring Soil Water

Four methods:
- gravimetric measurements
- potentiometers
- resistance blocks
- neutron probes (mainly research)
 Gravimetric method
Measures soil water content by weight
Water content = moist wt – dry wt dry wt
Example: soil sample at field capacity 162 grams
dry sample 135 grams
water content = 162g – 135g = .20
135g
 Volume Basis
Volumetric water content =
gravimetric water content x soil bulk density
water density
From previous gravimetric example .
If bulk density of soil is 1.4 grams per cubic cm, and we know
density of water is 1.0 g/cc
Volumetric water content =

.20 x 1.4g/cc = .28

1.0 g/cc
 Soil Depth Basis
Measures “inches of water” per foot of soil
- Uses volumetric water content
- Simple calculation . . .
Inches water per foot =
12 inches x volumetric water content
Continue from previous example . . .
Inches water per foot soil =
12 inches x .28 = 3.36
Or simply stated
Each foot of soil depth contains 3.36 inches of water
assuming constant soil conditions
 Practical Measuring Devices
Gravimetric method not very practical management
More useful and practical are . . .
- 1. Potentiometers (tensiometers):
 Measure soil moisture potential at given levels
 Water exiting tube creates vacuum
 Measured by gauge/instrument
 Function best at higher potentials
2. Resistance Blocks (gypsum blocks):
 Measure resistance of electrical flow between two
electrodes embedded in block buried in soil
 moist soil with ions of salts in solution carry electrical flow
 WATER RETENTION
 Medium-textured soils have the highest available water-
holding capacity e.g. Silt Loam
 Organic matter influences water-holding capacity-
Increases amount of available water
Water requirement of crop
• Water balance method: This method indicates the
inflow and outflowof water over larger areas over long
period.
• WR=ET+ Surface ruoff+ subsurface drainage+ change
in soil water content
 Water evaporation in the leaf
affects the xylem
• The tensions needed to pull water
through the xylem are the result of
evaporation of water from leaves.
• Transpiration pull, which causes
water to move up the xylem
 Water evaporation in the leaf
affects the xylem
• So, negative pressure exists in leaves- cause surface
tension on the water
• As more water is lost to the atmosphere – the remaining
water is drawn into the cell wall
• As more water is removed from the wall the pressure of
the water becomes more –ve
This induces a motive force to pull water up the xylem
 Water movement from leaf to
atmosphere
After water has evaporated
from the cell surface of the
intercellular air space diffusion
takes over.
•So: the path of water
– Xylem
– Cell wall of mesophyll
cells
– Evaporated into air
spaces of leaf
– Diffusion occurs – water
vapor then leaves via
stomatal pore
– Goes down a
concentration gradient.
 Water Vapor diffuses quickly in air

• Diffusion of water out of the leaf is very fast

• Transpiration from the leaf depends on two factors:
– Difference in water vapor concentration between leaf air
spaces and the atmosphere
– The diffusional resistance of the pathway from leaf to
atmosphere
• The diffusional resistance of the pathway from leaf to
atmosphere
• The resistance associated with diffusion through the
stomatal pore.
– Leaf stomatal resistance (rs)
• Resistance due to a layer of unstirred air next to the leaf
surface
– Boundary layer resistance
 Boundary layer resistance
• Thickness of the layer is
determined by wind speed.
• Still air – layer may be so thick
that water is effectively stopped
from leaving the leaf

• Windy conditions – moving air

reduces the thickness of the
boundary layer at the leaf surface

• The size and shape of leaves

influence air flow – but the
stomata itself play the most
critical role leaf transpiration
• The boundary layer around a leaf is thick in still air, and
constitutes a major resistance to the flux of H2O from
the leaf. A slight increase in wind speed will reduce the
boundary layer, and increase transpiration.
 UNIT-2
Crop Models
• Efficient crop production technology is based on a right
decision at right time in a right way.
• Traditionally crop production functions were derived from
conventional experienced base agronomic research
• Where crop yield were related to some defined variable
based on correlation and regression or regression analysis.

• Agriculture models are, however, only crude

representations of the real systems
• Incomplete knowledge resulting from the inherent
complexity of the systems.
• Judicious use of such model is possible only if the user
has a sound understanding of model structure, scope and
limitation.
Models in agriculture
• Agricultural models are mathematical equations that
represent the reactions that occur within the plant and
the interactions between the plant and its environment.
• Owing to the complexity of the system and the
incomplete status of present knowledge, it becomes
impossible to completely represent the system in
mathematical terms.
Features of crop models
• The main aim of constructing crop models is to obtain
an estimate of the harvestable (economic) yield.
• According to the amount of data and knowledge that is
available within a particular field, models with different
levels of complexity are developed.
 Types of crop models
1. Empirical model
• Direct descriptions of observed data
• Expressed as regression equations (with one or a few
factors) and are used to estimate the final yield.
• Examples of such models include the response of crop
yield to fertilizer application, the relationship between
leaf area and leaf size in a given plant species.
• Limitation of this model is site specific, it can not used
universally.
2. Statistical models
• These models represent relationship between
yield components and weather parameters.
• Statistical techniques are used to estimate the
relationship.
• A stochastic model incorporates random
variables to produce many different outcomes
under diverse conditions
 Dynamic models
• Time is included as a variable.
• Output is a function of time.
• Both dependent and independent variables have values
which remain constant over a period of time.
 Deterministic models
• Gives the same exact results for a particular set of
inputs, no matter how many times you re-calculate the
model.
• Here, the mathematical properties are known.
• None of them is random.
• There is only one set of specific values and only one
answer or solution to a problem.
• With a deterministic model, the uncertain factors are
external to the model.
• Variations due to inaccuracies in recorded data and to
heterogeneity in the material being dealt with, are
inherent to biological and agricultural systems.
• In certain cases, deterministic models may be adequate
despite these inherent variations but in others they might
prove to be unsatisfactory e.g. in rainfall prediction.
• Empirical models are based on direct observation,
measurement and extensive data records.
• Mechanistic models are based on an understanding of
the behavior of a system's components.
• For example, you can observe the change of the tides
over many years, and construct an empirical model that
allows you to predict when tides will occur, with no
understanding of how the earth, moon and sun interact.
You can also create a mathematical, mechanistic model
that uses the laws of physics to predict tides.
 References
• https://www.slideshare.net/mohammedjazeel2/computer-applications-incropproduction?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=45
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0YHb0Q_q-o
• Tutorial: Seasonal analysis using DSSAT 4.5 (2/2). Class Crop models, U. Cordoba

• https://www.slideshare.net/ChongthamAllaylayDev/crop-modeling-and-stress?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=3

• https://www.slideshare.net/folorunsoakinseye/akinseye-final?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=7

• https://www.slideshare.net/sunilkumarmedida/crop-simulation-models-a-research-tool?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=8

• https://www.slideshare.net/cgiarclimate/crop-modelling-with-the-dssat?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=18

• Crop models-Concepts & techniques, types of crop models, data requirements, relational
diagrams
• https://www.slideshare.net/Arpnabajpai1/crop-growth-modelling?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=54

• https://www.slideshare.net/ShwetaPatel22/forecasting-model-for-insect-pest?
qid=6ab6b989-1021-49f9-8fe1-53a7da97f8d7&v=&b=&from_search=51
 Unit III
Elementary crop growth
models
 Model calibration

Calibration is adjustment of the system parameters so

that simulation results reach a predetermined level,
usually that of an observation. In many instances, even
if a model is based on observed data, simulated values
do not exactly comply with the observed data and
minor adjustments have to be made for some
parameters .
 Model validation

The model validation stage involves the confirmation

that the calibrated model closely represents the real
situation.
The procedure consists of a comparison of simulated
output and observed data that have not been previously
used in the calibration stage.
However, validation of all the components is not
possible due to lack of detailed datasets.
For example, in a soil-water-crop model, it is
important to validate the extractable water and leaf
area components since biomass accumulated is
heavily dependent on these.
 MODEL USES AND LIMITATIONS

Models are developed by agricultural scientists but the

user-group includes breeders, agronomists, extension
workers, policy-makers and farmers.
As different users possess varying degrees of expertise in
the modeling field, misuse of models may occur.
Since crop models are not universal, the user has to
choose the most appropriate model according to his
objectives.
Even when a judicious choice is made, it is important that
aspects of model limitations be borne in mind such that
modeling studies are put in the proper perspective and
successful applications are achieved.
 Misperceptions and limitations of models

Agricultural systems are characterized by high levels of

interaction
between the components that are not completely understood.
Models are, therefore, crude representations of reality.

Wherever knowledge is lacking, the modeler usually adopts a

simplified equation to describe an extensive subsystem.
Simplifications are adopted according to the model purpose
and / or the developer's views, and therefore constitute some
degree of subjectivity.

Models that do not result from strong interdisciplinary

collaboration are often good in the area of the developer's
expertise but are weak in other areas.

Model quality is related to the quality of scientific data used

in
 Misperceptions and limitations of models

When a model is applied in a new situation (e.g., switching a

new variety ), the calibration and validation steps are crucial
for correct simulations.

The need for model verification arises because all processes

are not fully understood and even the best mechanistic model
still contains some empirism making parameter adjustments
vital in a new situation.

Model performance is limited to the quality of input data. It is

common in cropping systems to have large volumes of data
relating to the above-ground crop growth and development,
but data relating to root growth and soil characteristics are
generally not as extensive. Using approximations may lead to
erroneous results.
 Misperceptions and limitations of models

Most simulation models require that meteorological data be

reliable and complete.

Meteorological sites may not fully represent the weather at a

chosen location. In some cases, data may be available for only
one (usually rainfall) or a few (rainfall and temperature)
parameters but data for solar radiation, which is important in
the estimation of photosynthesis and biomass accumulation,
may not be available. In such cases, the user would rely on
generated data. At times, records may be incomplete and gaps
have to be filled. Using approximations would have an impact
on model performance.
 Model uses
I] As research tools
a. Research understanding: Model development ensures the
integration of research understanding acquired through discreet
disciplinary research and allows the identification of the major
factors that drive the system and can highlight areas where
knowledge is insufficient.

b. Integration of knowledge across disciplines: Adoption of a

modular framework allows for the integration of basic research
that is carried out in different regions, countries and continents.
This ensures a reduction of research costs (e.g., through a
reduction in duplication of research) as well as the collaboration
between researchers at an international level.
 c. Improvement in experiment documentation and data
organization: Simulation model development, testing and
application demand the use of a large amount of technical
and observational data supplied in given units and in a
particular order. Data handling forces the modeler to resort
to formal data organization and database systems. The
systematic organization of data enhances the efficiency of
data manipulation in other research areas (e.g., productivity
analysis, change in soil fertility status over time).

d. Genetic improvement: As simulation models become

more detailed and mechanistic, they can mimic the system
more closely. More precise information can be obtained
regarding the impact of different genetic traits on
economic yields and these can be integrated in genetic
improvement programs, e.g., the NTKenaf model.
Researchers used the modeling approach to design crop
ideotypes for specific environments.
 e. Yield analysis: When a model with a sound
physiological background is adopted, it is possible to
extrapolate to other environments. The use of several
simulation models to assess climatically-determined yield
in various crops .
The CANEGRO model has been used along the same lines
in the South African sugar industry. Through the modeling
approach, quantification of yield reductions caused by
non-climatic causes (e.g., delayed sowing, soil fertility,
pests and diseases) becomes possible.
Almost all simulation models have been used for such
purposes. Simulation models have also been reported as
useful in separating yield gain into components due to
changing weather trends, genetic improvements and
improved technology.
II] As crop system management tools

a. Cultural and input management: Management

decisions regarding cultural practices and inputs have a
major impact on yield. Simulation models, that allow the
specification of management options, offer a relatively
inexpensive means of evaluating a large number of
strategies that would rapidly become too expensive if the
traditional experimentation approach were to be adopted.
Many publications are available describing the use of
simulation models with respect to cultural management
(planting and harvest date, irrigation, spacing, selection of
variety type) and input application (water and fertiliser).
 b. Risks assessment and investment support: Using a
combination of simulated yields and gross margins,
economic risks and weather-related variability can be
assessed. These data can then be used as an investment
decision support tool.

c. Site-specific farming: Profit maximisation may be

achieved by managing farms as sets of sub-units and
providing the required inputs at the optimum level to match
variation in soil properties across the farm. Such an
endeavour is attainable by coupling simulation models with
geographic information systems (GIS) to produce maps of
predicted yield over the farm. But, one of the prerequisites
is a systematic characterisation of units that may prove
costly.
III] As policy analysis tools

a. Best management practices: Models having chemical

leaching or erosion components can be used to determine
the best practices over the long-term. The EPIC model has
been used to evaluate erosion risks due to cropping
practices and tillage.

b. Yield forecasting: Yield forecasting for industries over

large areas is important to the producer (harvesting and
transport), the processing agent (milling period) as well as
the marketing agency. The technique uses weather records
together with forecast data to estimate yield across the
industry.
 c. Introduction of a new crop: Agricultural research is
linked to the prevailing cropping system in a particular
region. Hence, data concerning the growth and
development of a new crop in that region would be
lacking. Developing a simulation model based on
scientific data collected elsewhere and a few datasets
collected in the new environment helps in the assessment
of temporal variability in yield using long-term climatic
data. Running the simulations with meteorological data in
a balanced network of locations also helps in locating the
industry.
d. Global climate change and crop production:
Increased levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are
contributing to global warming with associated changes in
rainfall pattern. Assessing the effects of these changes on
crop yield is important at the producer as well as at the
government level for planning purposes.
 Crop Production Levels
Production level 1: This is an ideal situation in which crop
does not suffer from any shortage of water or nutrients in the
entire growing season. Its growth and development depends
only upon the weather conditions and crop characteristics.
Production level 2: The growth of crop is limited by the
shortage of water for at least some part of the growing
season. This situation frequently occurs in semi-arid region
and also in areas where rainfall is inedequate or poorly
distributed.
Production level 3: Nitrogen shortage during the growing
season limits the crop growth at this production level.
Water shortage or adverse weather conditions occur in
the remaining part of the season. This condition is very
frequent in all over the world.

Production level 4: Crop growth is restricted by low levels

of phosphorous and other mineral nutrients.. Stress of
insect, pest, disease and weeds can occur at this
production level.
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7fpiLJYp38&t=333s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU_EOWaqyWg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeogLpEvJLQ

https://slideplayer.com/slide/7731906/
 Unit IV
Potential and achievable crop
production
 Crop yield potential
❖Output of a crop cultivar when grown with nutrients and
water.
❖Mainly regulated by genetic characteristics, atmospheric CO2
concentration, temperature and solar radiation.
❖In most cases, a crop’s yield potential is not shown for plants
that have been rainfed.

Maximum Yield explains Crop yield potential

❖ Due to a population increase of 35% is expected by 2050
❖ It is crucial to measure the crop yield potential of various
plots of agricultural land from all over the world.
❖ As such, crop yield potential can also be used to minimize
agricultural expansion into remaining grasslands, wetlands
and rainforests.
Techniques used to estimate crop yield
potential
I. Consulting an agronomist
❖ These specialists can help farmers make informed decisions
related to their fertilizing and irrigation plans.
❖ Depending on the different plant types, agronomists can also
help planters unlock certain micronutrients from the growing
soil in order to enhance plant growth and development.
II. Taking a soil sample
❖ Help farmers make important decision when it comes to their
soil fertility and quality.
❖ Soil samples have therefore been shown to be crucial to
estimating a crop’s yield potential.
III. Taking a tissue sample
• While most soils are abundant with nutrients, some plants are
limited by their root absorption capacity.
• In fact, some nutrients are not absorbed by the roots because
they have merged with other soil particles.
• A tissue sample can help farmers identify the nutrients that are
already present in the soil, but not being absorbed by the
plants.
• Following this, farmers normally invest in nutrient-rich
fertilizers to replace the minerals and nutrients that are not
being absorbed in order to increase agricultural output.
 Potential yield (Yp)

❑ The yield of a current cultivar “when grown in environments to

which it is adapted; with nutrients and water non limiting; and
with pests, diseases, weeds, lodging, and other stresses effectively
controlled”
❑ Potential yield depends on location as it relates to weather but is
independent of soil, which is assumed to be physically and
chemically favourable for crop growth.
❑ The climatic factors that influence potential yield are radiation,
ambient CO2 concentration and temperature.
❑ Photosynthesis, growth and potential yield are also responsive to
fraction of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit.
❑ Potential yield is relevant to benchmark crops where
irrigation, the amount and distribution of rainfall, or a
combination of irrigation and rainfall ensure that water
deficits do not constrain yield.
❑ Water-limited yield (Yw) is similar to yield potential, except
that yield is also limited by water supply, and hence
influenced by soil type (water holding capacity and rooting
depth) and field topography. This measure of yield is relevant
to benchmark rainfed crops.
❑ Attainable yield is the best yield achieved through skillful
use of the best available technology.
❑ Actual (Ya) yield reflects the current state of soils and
climate, average skills of the farmers, and their average use
of technology.
❑ Yield gap is the difference between two levels of yield.
❖ An exploitable/attainable yield gap is the difference
between actual yield and 80% of modeled potential yield
(although, this level depends on price ratios).
❖ The exploitable yield gap accounts for both the unlikely
alignment of all factors required for achievement of potential or
water limited yield and the economic, management and
environmental constraints that rule out.
❖ For example, the use of fertiliser rates that maximise yield,
when growers’ aim is often a compromise between maximising
profit and minimising risk at the whole-farm scale, rather than
maximising yield of individual crops.
Yield gaps in wheat production in India can be countered with an
earlier sowing date, says a University of Michigan researcher.

Using a new way to measure wheat yields, Meha Jain, assistant professor
at the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability, found that the
wheat produce in eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, India's main wheat
growing region, can grow by 110 percent if the best farm management
practices, including earlier sow dates, are implemented.
"Identifying the causes of gaps will provide actionable information to
enhance food security," said Jain, adding that food security will be
increasingly challenged by climate change, natural resource degradation
and population growth over the coming decades.
India is the world's second-largest producer of wheat after China.
Previous studies have suggested that wheat yields have stagnated and
rising temperatures could reduce yields by up to 30 percent by mid-
century.
"Wheat is one crop that is highly impacted by heat during grain filling
stage," she said. "Moving the sow date earlier, even by a couple of weeks,
can make a big difference to the yield.“
Her research looked at some of the top wheat producing states—
Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—from 2001 to 2015.

The research describes yield gap as the difference between the realistic
maximum potential yields that can be achieved versus actual mean
yields.

According to the study, yield gaps were low in the northwestern states
of Haryana and Punjab—India's wheat belt—but it could be increased
by another 10 percent by changing the sow date.

It is the northern and eastern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where the
gaps were much higher, yields could be increased by up to 32% with an
earlier sow date. By improving management practices to the highest
yielding farms, the yield could be doubled.
"One of the most important factors we found for closing yield gaps was
earlier sowing,”
New Varieties of Crops Released and Identified
ICAR- Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi released and
identified eight new varieties of major field crops during 2015. Varieties
were released on 5 February, 2016. These varieties are high yielding with
good quality traits and resistance to pests and diseases.

Wheat: HS 542 (Pusa Kiran)

Year of release : 2015
Characteristics : A semi-dwarf variety with grain yield potential of 6.03
t/ha under rain fed situations. HS 542 has good chapatti and bread making
qualities. The variety is resistant to stripe and leaf rust .
Average yield : 3.3 t/ha
Production conditions : Early sown rainfed
Recommended areas : North Eastern Hills
• Wheat: HDCSW 18Year of release : 2015
Characteristics : This is the first variety of the country bred
specifically for CA. It has genetic yield potential of more than
7t/ha. It is resistant to high temperature at seedling stage. It
escape high temperature at maturity due to early seeding. It is
highly resistant to brown rust and has lower incidence of
Karnal bunt.
Average yield : 6.28 t/ha
Production conditions : Early sown irrigated conditions under
conservation agriculture (CA) environment.
Recommended areas : NCR/Delhi state
Wheat: HD 4728 (Pusa Malvi)
❖ Year of release : 2015
❖ Characteristics : A semi-dwarf (90 cm), 120 days maturing
durum wheat variety with genetic yield potential of 6.8 t/ha.
The variety has high degree of resistance to leaf and stem rust
diseases. Its has bold and lustrous grains and superior quality
traits for end use in semolina-based industry.
❖ Average yield : 5.42 t/ha
❖ Production conditions : Timely sown irrigated.
❖ Recommended areas : Central Zone.
Theoretical yield is the maximum crop yield as determined by
biophysical limits to key processes including biomass production and
partitioning.

It can be estimated with models with sound physiological structure,

and parameters reflecting the biophysical boundaries of key
processes.

Theoretical yield is constrained by genotypic (canopy architecture,

harvest index) and environmental drivers of crop development,
growth and resource partitioning in non-stress conditions.

Recognized environmental factors include solar radiation, ambient

CO2 concentration, temperature and photoperiod, as they modulate
development and growth.
Nitrogen-driven trade-off between water productivity and the
efficiency in the use of nitrogen

High water productivity requires adequate nitrogen supply.

However, the relationship between yield and nitrogen supply
conforms to the law of diminishing returns, and therefore nitrogen
use efficiency declines with increasing nitrogen supply.

The effect of individual inputs such as water and nitrogen on the

carbon, water and nitrogen budgets of crops determines a nitrogen-
driven trade-off between water productivity and nitrogen use
efficiency
This is illustrated for aerobic and flooded rice in the
Philippines and for rainfed and irrigated maize in the USA.

Thus, maximizing water productivity in some farming

systems may require nitrogen rates that are too costly, too
risky or environmentally unsound.

This is particularly important with high fertiliser-to-grain

price ratio, in environments prone to nitrogen leaching, or
where biophysical, social, economic or infrastructure factors
constraint the use of fertilizer.
 Crop Response to Water

Yield and Evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the amount of water that is used by the crop and
is the driving force behind crop yields. ET is the sum of evaporation of
water from the soil or crop surface and transpiration by the crop.

Water stress during critical time periods can result in lower than potential
yields. Crops, such as corn, respond with more yield for every inch of
water that the crop consumes as compared to winter wheat or soybeans.
However, crops such as corn require more water for development or
maintenance before any yield is produced.

Irrigation is important to increasing ET and grain yields. Irrigation is used

to supplement rainfall in periods when ET is greater than precipitation.
However, not all of the water applied by irrigation is used for ET.
Inefficiencies in applications by the system result in losses.
Water-regime driven trade-off between rice yield and water
productivity

Bouman et al. (2006) and Farooq et al. (2009) reviewed the

water productivity of rice, of which about 90% is produced in
irrigated or rain-fed lowland fields (“paddies”).
Water for lowland rice needs to account for land preparation
requirements, seepage, percolation, evaporation and
transpiration.
In a context of water scarcity, water saving technologies are
being explored to reduce water use and improve water
productivity, including aerobic rice and alternate wetting and
drying.
The principle underlying these techniques is the increase in
water productivity associated with reduced water input.
However, water saving techniques can also reduce grain yield.
Comparison of rice crops grown under aerobic and flooded
conditions in tropical environments of the Philippines showed a
substantial increase in water productivity at the expense of grain
yield.
In relation to the flooded regime, aerobic culture increased average
water productivity from 5.7 to 7.4 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 and reduced
yield from 6.4 to 5.7 t ha-1.
In contrast, aerobic rice crops in temperate environments of Japan
outperformed their flooded counterparts in terms of water
productivity (average 8.3 vs. 3.4 kg grain ha-1 mm-1) and showed
no yield penalty (average 8.6 vs. 8.1 t ha-1) (Kato et al. 2009).
The gap between potential and water limited yield is an indication
of yield gap that can be removed with irrigation.
For example, modeling studies in cropping systems of Bolivia
compared yield of rainfed quinoa, from 0.2 to 1.1 t ha-1, with yield
under irrigation aimed at avoiding stomatal closure during all
sensitive growth stages from 1.5 to 2.2 t ha-1, thus representing
gaps around 1.2 t ha-1 (Geerts et al. 2009).
Removing the dynamic components of environment and
technology

The number of years required to estimate actual yield is a

compromise between a time series that is long enough to capture
variation in weather, and short enough to avoid trends associated
with technological and environmental change .

van Ittersum et al. (2013) illustrate this balance for irrigated maize in Nebraska
and a favourable environment for rainfed wheat production in The Netherlands.
In both cases, yields from the five most recent years were enough to obtain
estimates of the average yield and the coefficient of variation that are similar to
those obtained with yields from the last 10 years.

Finally, note that a longer time interval (20 years) may bias the estimates of
average yield and coefficient of variation due to the technological change, i.e.
improved varieties and agronomy, and to a lesser extent changes in climate, as
shown for irrigated and rainfed maize in Nebraska and wheat in The Netherlands.
Modeled yield

Credible assessment of the impact of technology, soils, current and future

climate on food production depends on our ability to estimate crop yields
accurately in response to these sources of variation.

Crop simulation models, validated on their ability to reproduce major

interactions between genotype, environment and management, can help
estimate potential and water-limited yields.

Desirable attributes of models in yield gap studies: Van Ittersum et al.

(2013) summarised desirable attributes for models to be used in yield gap
analysis. These include
Use of daily time step weather data,
management practices that influence yield (e.g. sowing date, plant density,
cultivar maturity), crop specificity, low requirement of cultivar specific
parameters, proved performance through validation and peer-reviewed
publications, full documentation of parameterization, and user friendly
interface.
The study of Rötter et al. (2012) further highlights the importance of local
model calibration.
Crop simulation models estimate different yield levels, depending
on the assumptions and modeling approach.

Crop models with typically daily time-step sufficient detail of

physiological principles can be used to estimate yield potential.

This involves the assumptions of non-limiting water and nitrogen.

Estimates using actual weather, and consequently a certain
frequency and intensity of water stress, could be considered closer
to water-limited yield.

Indeed, modeled yield often reproduces the upper boundary of

measured yield under water limiting conditions (Angus & van
Herwaarden 2001). Models such as CERES, APSIM, CropSyst,
ORYZA2000 and AquaCrop are suitable for estimating both yield
potential and water-limited yield.
Weather data for modeling crop yield: The models commonly
used to simulate potential and water-limited yield require a
minimum data set of daily weather variables including incident
solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature,
precipitation, and some measure of humidity, i.e. relative humidity,
actual vapour pressure, dew point temperature.

More than 30 weather data sources have been used in agricultural

research, but few have been used for simulating yields (Ramirez-
Villegas and Challinor 2012).

The main differences among sources of the weather databases used

to simulate potential and water-limited yields are:
(i) observed site-specific vs. interpolated gridded data,
(ii) temporal resolution (daily vs. monthly), and
Gridded weather data are uniformly distributed within each spatial
cell. Values within cells are typically derived by interpolating
weather data based on coordinates of the sites within the grid and in
nearest-neighbour grids, taking in consideration distance from each
other, elevation, and other variables.

Gridded weather data have the advantage of full geospatial

coverage, but they are derived, not observed data.

Various authors have demonstrated that interpolated monthly

observations may lead to over-estimation of simulated yields in
particular in locations with high day to-day variability in weather
interpolation of monthly precipitation data in particular leads to
substantial error an should therefore be avoided in all cases.
Observed daily weather data are unavailable in many cropping
regions but gridded global weather databases with complete
terrestrial coverage are available.

These are typically derived from global circulation computer

models, interpolated weather station data, or remotely sensed
surface data from satellites.
Modeling yield within the context of a cropping system:
For a given region, potential and water-limited yield can be
simulated for recommended sowing dates, planting density and
cultivar (which determines growing period to maturity).
However, sowing dates and cultivar maturity need to reflect the
dominant cropping system.
Farmers attempt to maximise output of their entire cropping
system rather than the yield or profit of individual crops.
Likewise, where machinery and labour are limiting or costly,
achieving recommended sowing dates may not be feasible for the
entire farm.
Hence, capturing the spread of sowing dates and of season length
is relevant to calculate potential yield or water-limited yield.
In all cases, the assumptions must be transparent and consistent
with the objectives for proper interpretation of results.
CROP PRODUCTION POTENTIAL: One of the simplest answers to
production potential is offered by the concept of net primary
productivity (NPP), which is the net production of organic matter by
the plants, and is therefore the fundamental basis determining the
biological diversity and activity of ecosystems on the Earth.
Several methods have been developed to predict NPP values of
various vegetation types.

Seino & Uchijima (1992) evaluated the global distribution of NPP

using weather data from 1143 stations on whole continents, and
presented a map of the geographical distribution of NPP of natural
vegetation.

Predicted NPP values ranged from less than 1 t dry matter ha−" yr−"
in high latitude zones and dry regions to 29 t dry matter ha− yr− in
tropical wet regions, depending on climatic conditions.
Information on radiation and temperature within the growing period is used
together with the actual photosynthetic capacity of crops and the fraction of
the net biomass which crops can convert into economically useful yield to
calculate the net biomass production (Bn ) and yield of crops.

Bn =0.36 x mgb/1/N+0.25Ct

where Bn- net biomass production by the crop during N days of its cycle,
expressed in tonnes per hectare,
Mgb-maximum level of gross biomass production by the crop,
and Ct -coefficient of respiration of the crop.

The coefficient Ct is expressed as a function of the mean temperature t by

Ct=c30(0.44+0.0019 t+0.01t2) where c-30 is the coefficient of respiration
of the crop for t-30°C.
Yield biomass, By , can be calculated as
By=Bn x Hi
where Hi is the harvest index, defined as the fraction of the net biomass of a
crop that is economically useful.
What Is limited irrigation?
When water supplies are restricted, so that full evapo-transpiration demands
cannot be met, limited irrigation results.
Reasons for limited water supplies include:
1. Limited capacity of the irrigation well – In regions with limited saturated
depth of the aquifer, well yields can be marginal and not sufficient to meet
the needs of the crop.
2. Restricted allocation upon pumping – In some regions that have
experienced declining groundwater levels, restrictions have been
implemented to decrease the amount of pumping by producers. In some
instances, the allocations are less than what is required to fully irrigate the
crops grown.
3. Reduced surface water supplies or storage – In regions that rely upon
surface water to supply irrigation needs, droughts and water transfers can
have a major impact on the amount of water that is available to producers
for irrigation.
When producers cannot apply water to meet the ET of the crop, they must
realize that with typical management practices, yields and returns from the
irrigated crop will be reduced as compared to a fully irrigated crop.
To properly manage the water for the greatest return, producers must have an understanding
of how crops respond to water, how crop rotations can enhance irrigation management, and
how changes in agronomic practices can influence water needs.

Agronomic Practices
Residue Management

The goal when working with limited water is to capture, store, and preserve
every possible source of water in the production system. These sources include
rainfall, snowfall and irrigation water.

Residue management can have a significant impact on increasing the availability of

water.
Producers in the Central Plains have long advocated no-till for dryland production.
No-till increases the amount of water stored in the soil due to reduced evaporation
from tillage operations, improved infiltration and reduced runoff, and increased snow
catch during winter snowstorms.

Changes in tillage management have allowed producers to change rotations from

the conventional wheat-fallow rotation to more intensive rotations such as wheat-
corn-fallow. The changes in tillage management can be successfully used in irrigated
production for moisture conservation.
 WATER USE IN PLANT GROWTH AND ‘WATER USE
EFFICIENCY’

Water ‘limits’ crop productivity to below the maximum or potential

production when water supply is less than the demand for water set by
atmospheric conditions.
The evapotranspiration rate from a reference surface, not short of water, is
called the reference crop evapotranspiration or reference
evapotranspiration and is denoted as Eto.
The reference surface is a hypothetical grass reference crop with specific
characteristics.
The concept of the reference evapotranspiration was introduced to
study the evaporative demand of the atmosphere independently of
crop type, crop development and management practices.
As water is abundantly available at the reference evapotranspiring surface,
soil factors do not affect.
ETo values measured or calculated at different locations or in different
seasons are comparable as they refer to the ET from the same reference
surface.
➢The only factors affecting ETo are climatic parameters. Consequently,
ETo is a climatic parameter and can be computed from weather data.

➢ ETo expresses the evaporating power of the atmosphere at a specific

location and time of the year and does not consider the crop characteristics
and soil factors.

➢ The FAO Penman-Monteith method is recommended as the sole

method for determining Eto.

Crop evapotranspiration under standard conditions (ETc)

The crop evapotranspiration under standard conditions, denoted as ETc, is

the evapotranspiration from disease-free, well-fertilized crops, grown in
large fields, under optimum soil water conditions, and achieving full
production under the given climatic conditions.
Average ETo for different agroclimatic regions in mm/day

Regions Mean daily temperature (°C)

Cool Moderate Warm
~ 10°C 20°C > 30°C
Tropics and subtropics
- humid and sub-humid 2-3 3-5 5-7
- arid and semi-arid 2-4 4-6 6-8
Temperate region
- humid and sub-humid 1-2 2-4 4-7
- arid and semi-arid 1-3 4-7 6-9
Crop evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions (ETc adj)

➢The crop evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions (ETc adj)

is the evapotranspiration from crops grown under management and
environmental conditions that differ from the standard conditions.

➢When cultivating crops in fields, the real crop evapotranspiration may

deviate from ETc due to non-optimal conditions such as the presence
of pests and diseases, soil salinity, low soil fertility, water shortage or
waterlogging.

➢This may result in scanty plant growth, low plant density and may
reduce the evapotranspiration rate below ETc.

➢The crop evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions is

calculated by using a water stress coefficient Kc for all kinds of other
stresses and environmental constraints on crop evapotranspiration.
DETERMINING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

ET measurement

Evapotranspiration is not easy to measure.

Specific devices and accurate measurements of various physical

parameters or the soil water balance in lysimeters are required to
determine evapotranspiration.

The methods are often expensive, demanding in terms of accuracy

of measurement and can only be fully exploited by well-trained
research personnel.
Energy balance and microclimatological methods

Evaporation of water requires relatively large amounts of energy,

either in the form of sensible heat or radiant energy.

Therefore the evapotranspiration process is governed by energy

exchange at the vegetation surface and is limited by the amount
of energy available.

All fluxes of energy should be considered when deriving an

energy balance equation.

The equation for an evaporating surface can be written as:

Rn − G - LE − H = 0 (1)

where Rn is the net radiation, H the sensible heat, G the soil heat
flux and LE the latent heat flux.
Soil water balance
Evapotranspiration can also be determined by measuring the various
components of the soil water balance.
The method consists of assessing the incoming and outgoing water flux
into the crop root zone over some time period.

ET = I + P − RO − DP + CR ± ΔSFIN ± ΔSFout (2)

Irrigation (I) and rainfall (P) add water to the root zone.
Part of I and P might be lost by surface runoff (RO) and by deep
percolation(DP) that will eventually recharge the water table.
Water might also be transported upward by capillary rise (CR) from a
shallow water table towards the root zone or even transferred horizontally
by subsurface flow in (SFin) or out of (SFout) the root zone.
In many situations, however, except under condititions with large slopes,
SFin and SFout are minor and can be ignored.
Soil evaporation and crop transpiration deplete water from the root zone.
The soil water balance method can usually only give ET estimates over week-
long or ten-day periods.
 Lysimeters
➢By isolating the crop root zone from its environment and controlling the
processes that are difficult to measure, the different terms in the soil water
balance equation can be determined with greater accuracy.
➢This is done in lysimeters where the crop grows in isolated tanks filled with
either disturbed or undisturbed soil.
➢In precision weighing lysimeters, where the water loss is directly measured
by the change of mass, evapotranspiration can be obtained with an accuracy of
a few hundredths of a millimetre, and small time periods such as an hour can
beconsidered.
➢ In non-weighing lysimeters the evapotranspiration for a given time period is
determined by deducting the drainage water, collected at the bottom of the
lysimeters, from the total water input.
➢A requirement of lysimeters is that the vegetation both inside and
immediately outside of the lysimeter be perfectly matched (same height and
leaf area index). This requirement has historically not been closely adhered to
in a majority of lysimeter studies. As lysimeters are difficult and expensive to
construct and as their operation and maintenance require special care, their use
is limited to specific research purposes.
The FAO Expert Consultation on Revision of FAO Methodologies for Crop Water
Requirements accepted the following definition for the reference surface

"A hypothetical reference crop with an assumed crop height of 0.12 m, a fixed surface
resistance of 70 s m-1 and an albedo of 0.23.

The FAO Penman-Monteith method to estimate ETo can be derived

where ETo reference evapotranspiration [mm day-1],

Rn net radiation at the crop surface [MJ m-2 day-1],
G soil heat flux density [MJ m-2 day-1],
T mean daily air temperature at 2 m height [°C],
u2 wind speed at 2 m height [m s-1],
es saturation vapour pressure [kPa],
ea actual vapour pressure [kPa],
es-ea saturation vapour pressure deficit [kPa],
Δ slope vapour pressure curve [kPa °C-1],
γ psychrometric constant [kPa °C-1].
Crop coefficient approach
In the crop coefficient approach the crop evapotranspiration, ETc, is
calculated by multiplying the reference crop evapotranspiration, ETo, by a
crop coefficient, Kc:

ETc = Kc Eto
Kc= Etc/ Eto
where ETc crop evapotranspiration [mm d-1],
Kc crop coefficient [dimensionless],
ETo reference crop evapotranspiration [mm d-1]

The reference ETo is defined and calculated using the FAO Penman-
Monteith equation.

The crop coefficient, Kc, is basically the ratio of the crop ETc to the
reference
ETo, and it represents an integration of the effects of four primary
characteristics that distinguish the crop from reference grass.
These characteristics are

Crop height. The crop height influences the aerodynamic resistance

term, ra, of the FAO Penman-Monteith equation and the turbulent
transfer of vapour from the crop into the atmosphere.

Albedo (reflectance) of the crop-soil surface. The albedo is affected

by the fraction of ground covered by vegetation and by the soil surface
wetness. The albedo of the crop-soil surface influences the net radiation
of the surface, Rn, which is the primary source of the energy exchange
for the evaporation process.

Canopy resistance. The resistance of the crop to vapour transfer is

affected by leaf area (number of stomata), leaf age and condition, and
the degree of stomatal control. The canopy resistance influences the
surface resistance, rs.

Evaporation from soil, especially exposed soil

Single (time-averaged) crop coefficients, Kc, and mean maximum plant heights for non
stressed, well-managed crops in subhumid climates (RHmin ≈ 45%, u2 ≈ 2 m/s) for use with
the FAO Penman-Monteith Eto.

Crop Kc initial Kc mid Kc end Maximum

Crop Height
(m)
Legumes 0.4 1.15 0.55 0.4
Cereals 0.3 1.15 0.4 1.0
Fibre Crops 0.35 1.15-1.20 0.5-0.7 1.2-1.5
Oil seed crops 0.35 1.15 0.35 0.3
In 1977, John Passioura proposed a simple model as a framework for
examining the determinants of crop yield, particularly in water-limited
crop production,
Y = BWR × W × HI
where Y is the yield; W is water available; and HI is the harvest index
(Passioura 1977). The model has been a most useful framework, as it
focused attention on three areas: how to increase the water available;
how to increase the proportion of crop biomass, i.e. yield (HI); and how
to improve the ratio of crop biomass produced to water lost. For the
physiologist, W is usually taken to be the water available for
transpiration;
thus BWR becomes synonymous with TE ( transpiration efficiency).
BWR to indicate the biomass water ratio (=M/T, where M is dry biomass
but the effect will depend on any changes in humidity, wind speed,
cloudiness and hence solar radiation) or biomass water use efficiency.
While water availability is thus partly determined by irrigation and
precipitation, clearly all three terms in equation have strong
physiological determinants
Gregory et al. (1997) have emphasized that for the agronomist,
W in equation is not necessarily all used in productive transpiration of the crop (Tc),
but that soil evaporation (Es), drainage from the root zone (D) and run-off (R) are
important components. Furthermore, another agronomic aspect is that some water may
be lost in weed transpiration (Tw; Turner 2004b).
Thus
BWR = M/(Es + Tc + Tw + R + D).

Therefore, increasing Water does not increase yield unless Tc is increased more than
(Es+Tw+R+D).
Both Es and D are partly physiological aspects too. Firstly, the degree of ground cover
is a key determinant of the rate of soil evaporation. There is considerable evidence that
establishing high ground cover, for example by using genotypes with rapid leaf
growth, using denser planting or fertilizers, can increase the proportion of water lost in
transpiration.
Secondly, loss of water through drainage below the root zone depends on root growth
as well as on how wet the profile is; thus deeper rooting can recover more water from
the profile. There is much interest in the use of deficit irrigation to enhance the growth
of roots and some suggestion that many of the benefits of partial root zone drying
(PRD; see below) can be attributed to enhanced water uptake from deeper in the soil
profile, thereby enhancing yield (Y) through an enhancement of the water available (W)
in equation
In irrigated agriculture, there are further losses of water to be
considered through evaporation and leakage from reservoirs, and
losses in water movement to the field. Globally, storage and transfer
losses are estimated at approximately 30% (Wallace & Gregory
2002). Run-off and drainage losses may represent another 44%,
which means that after accounting for soil evaporation losses
probably only some 13–18% of water available for irrigation ends up
in transpiration.

IR thermography (IRT), has been used to study stomatal responses to

drought stress (Jones 2004c). IRT can be used in a simple way to
look for differences in leaf temperature, and thereby infer differences
in transpiration and stomatal behaviour. It has been used this way to
screen for and identify mutants with altered stomatal function.
DROUGHT RESISTANCE AND WATER PRODUCTIVITY
One approach to understand plant water productivity is to study plants
from dry environments which have mechanisms that confer drought
resistance, traditionally divided into dehydration avoidance and
dehydration tolerance mechanisms (Levitt 1972).
However, it has been argued that such comparative studies are rarely
useful as drought resistance is usually linked to low productivity, and is
thus of limited use in agricultural production (Sinclair & Purcell 2005).
In addition, severe drought is usually prolonged, so survival will not
usually lead to subsequent productivity, as the water is simply not there
(Passioura 2004). Also, Passioura (2002) has stated that ‘severe water
deficits are rare in viable agriculture, and asking how crops respond to or
survive them is unlikely to have much general impact’. This is true for
commercial agriculture, but is perhaps not true of much of ‘subsistence’
farming. In these situations, it is possible that physiological mechanisms
that allow maintenance of a high plant water status such as osmotic
adjustment, reduced water loss through cuticle, avoidance of xylem
cavitation and altered root-to-shoot ratio could be important in providing
some yield in ‘resource-poor’ cropping systems (Blum 2005).
IMPROVING CROP WATER PRODUCTIVITY
Conventional crop breeding continues to release varieties that have
improved yield in water-scarce environments, particularly in cereals.
Several analyses of Mediterranean cropping systems have pointed
out that about half of this is due to improvements in the crop, and
half due to improved agronomy and management, and the two have
combined and facilitated each other.
Advances in genetics and the molecular sciences and in technology
can now help us exploit novel understanding of plant drought stress
responses and this combination can result in a more targeted
selection programme (for example, where biotechnology can be used
with conventional breeding) to increase BWR in dry environments.
Richards (2004) has emphasized that progress in increasing commercial crop yields
in water-scarce environments has been made by selecting plants for a variety of
characters which can impact on yield by influencing components of the Passioura
equation (equation (3.2)). These include:
1. Extended crop duration (in wheat), allowing crops to be grown at different times
of year thereby reducing the Es component in equation (3.3) and putting more water
through the plant to increase W;
2. Increased axial resistances to water transport in wheat (Richards & Passioura
1989), which means the plant uses water more slowly, ensuring water is available
for development during anthesis and subsequent grain filling (increased HI);
3.Reduced anthesis-silking interval in maize (ASI, Edmeades et al. 1999), reducing
the chances of development of severe drought stress during vital phases of
reproductive development of the crop (thus leading to increased HI). If drought
stress does occur at this time, then complete crop failure can result, whatever the
water relations and growth of the crop during the vegetative phase;
4.Osmotic adjustment in wheat (Morgan 2000) which also helps sustain shoot water
status during key phases of plant development (increased HI), and selection for
‘stay-green’ traits in sorghum, which has led to lines which retain more green leaves
under terminal drought. The delayed leaf senescence allows further uptake of soil
water and nitrogen, both of which can enhance yields (and yield per unit of water
used) in drought-prone environments as a result of more carbohydrate being
available for grain filling (increased HI; Borrell et al. 2000, 2001).
Increasing harvest index

Much of agriculture depends on plant reproduction for the harvested part and for
the seeds for the next crop (Boyer & Westgate 2004). Plant reproductive
processes are extremely sensitive to water deficit, especially during the early
phases when development may cease irreversibly even though the parent
remains alive and vegetatively active.

Grain numbers decrease if water deficits affect key development processes,

especially ovary abortion in maize (Boyer & Westgate 2004) or pollen sterility in
small grains (Saini & Westgate 2000).

In maize, water deficits result in a decrease in photosynthate flux to the

developing organs and this appears to trigger abortion.

Manipulations that increase carbohydrate supply to developing grains during

drought stress not only decrease abortion but can also increase grain yield.

Recent work suggests that the enzyme invertase is a limiting step for grain
development during water deficit, and genes have been identified whose
regulation is affected during water deficit-induced abortion in maize (Boyer &
Westgate 2004).
CROP MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
1.Capturing more water (W) for crop transpiration through water harvesting, reducing
soil evaporation, improved weed control and by deeper root growth.
2.Improving BWR by exchanging transpired water for CO2 more effectively and
converting into biomass.
3.Convert more biomass into harvestable yield (HI).

Water harvesting approaches may be appropriate in some dryland regions, by

harvesting water on larger areas and channelling it onto crops.

Soil evaporation can be substantially reduced through minimum tillage and mulching
using materials or crop residues (see Hatfield et al. 2001). Most importantly, there is
considerable recent work showing that growing paddy rice without standing water and
with soil mulches can provide major improvements in water use efficiency, with small
or no yield penalties. Traditional paddy rice cultivation has used inundation for some
5000 years, but this results in 2–5 times more water use than other cereals
(Bindraban et al. 2006).
Soil evaporation can also be reduced by achieving a rapid ground cover through early
crop vigour and fertilizers have been shown to help (Gregory 2004). However, there is
a water cost to increased ground cover: the larger crop area will transpire more and thus
needs to be coupled to selection of suitable genotypes to avoid later season water
shortages.
➢Due to challenges in the maintenance of nutrient availability in organic
systems at crop rotation, farm and regional level, the average yield gap
between conventional and organic systems may be larger than 20% at
higher system levels

➢Nutrient efficient plants are defined as those plants, which produce higher
yields per unit of nutrient, applied or absorbed than other plants (standards)
under similar agroecological conditions.

➢during the 21st century agricultural scientists have tremendous

challenges, as well as opportunities, to develop nutrient efficient crop plants
and to develop best management practices that increase the plant efficiency
for utilization of applied fertilizers. During the 20th century, breeding for
nutritional traits has been proposed as a strategy to improve the efficiency
of fertilizer use or to obtain higher yields in low input agricultural systems.
 UNIT V
Weather forecasting
 Weather Forecasting

➢Human activities are based on weather and climate for each and
every aspect.
➢Early man contemplated the weather phenomenon as the
manifestation of God’s disposition, whereas the contemporary
man understands that weather is the product of energy
transformation in the atmosphere.
➢Now, man is doing efforts to control weather. His attitude has
changed from protective adaptation due to vagaries of weather to
control and modify it.
➢Early history shows that in 650BC, in Babylon weather was
predicted by the people from cloud patterns.
➢ In 340BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in
Meteorologica.
• Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on
observed events.
• Weather information of past, present and future is essential for
decision making in human activities.
• Prognosis or forecast is the projection of analysis into the
future.
• Weather forecasting is the prediction of weather for the next few
days to follow.
• Predicting weather is a process that has to be based on thorough
knowledge of elements of weather, their interaction, general
climatology of the region and local peculiarities.
Weather forecasting for services
 NEED / IMPORTANCE OF FORECAST
• Basically weather has many social and economic impacts in
a place.

• Among different factors that influence crop production,

weather plays a decisive role as aberrations in it alone
explains up to 50 per cent variations in crop production

• The rainfall is the most important among the required

forecast, which decides the crop production in a region and
ultimately the country’s economy.

• The planning for moisture conservation under weak

monsoon condition and for flood relief under strong
monsoon condition is important in a region
• One can minimize the damage, which may be caused
directly or indirectly by unfavourable weather
• The recurring crop losses can be minimized if reliable forecast
on incidence of pest and diseases is given timely based on
weather variables.
• Help in holding the food grain prices in check through buffer
stock operations.
• This means that in good monsoon years when prices fall, the
government may step in and buy and in bad years when price
tend to rise, it may unload a part of what it had purchased.
• Judicious use of water can be planned in a region
depending up on the forecast
• Harvesting operation can be advanced (if the crop is at
maturity stage) by knowing upcoming weather.
• Threshing can be done before rains and strong winds
• Pre-monsoon dry seeding can be done in dry lands
through anticipated rainfall.
• Selection of crops and varieties to suitable climatic
conditions is possible by weather forecasting.
 Forecasting Types and periods

• Nowcast (0-6 hours)

• Short Range forecasting
• Medium Range forecasting/Extended
forecasting
• Long Range forecasting
 Short Range Forecasting
• In this type of forecast, sequence of weather changes together
with variations in values of parameters are reported in detail.
• This is normally issued for aviation and shipping.
• In aviation, the time of incidence of weather phenomenon
with associated values of cloud detail, their height, winds,
temperature, visibility can be indicated with precision
• Forecasting time in prior-12 to 48 hours
• Accuracy-80-90%
 Short Range Forecasting
• Weather elements: Temp, wind velocity and direction,
sunshine duration, time and amount of precipitation, R.H.,
cold and heat waves, frost
• Application for agriculture
• Irrigation scheduling
• Adjusting the time of plant protection and fertigation.
 Medium Range Forecasting
• Medium range of forecasts are basically statements of mean
conditions covering the extended period wherein a rough day
to day break down of changing pattern is indicated.
• When labelled on to short range forecasting (48 hours), they
are usually termed as outlook with an indication of time
covered.
• E.g. Outlook for subsequent 72 hours.
• Forecasting time in prior-2 to 7 days
• Accuracy-60-70%
 Medium Range Forecasting
• Weather elements: Sequence of rainy days, strong
winds, extended dry and wet spells
• Application for agriculture
• To determine time of sowing
• Depth of sowing
• Irrigation planning
• Decision on harvesting
• Time of spraying
• Management of labour, implements and farm equipments
 Long Range Forecasting
• Forecasting time in prior-30days to season outlook
• Accuracy-60%
• Forecasted weather elements are
• Abnormality of temperature and precipitation.
• These are normally indicated as departures from normal.
• In view of the importance of rainfall during SW monsoon, a
seasonal rainfall forecast is issued by IMD, well before the
commencement of monsoon.
• The first such long range forecast about SW monsoon was
issued by IMD during 1886.
 Long Range Forecasting
Applications
• Soil moisture management
• Selection of crops
• Management of limited water supply
• Determine cropping pattern
• Determine crop yields
 Forecast requirements during
different seasons
• To a large extent, crop production in our country depends on
rainfall vagaries. Long range forecasts needed for kharif and
rabi are:
• Kharif
• Onset and withdrawal of monsoon.
• Breaks in monsoon rainfall, and
• Occurrence of heavy rainfall
• Rabi
• Rainfall and cold waves during winter.
• Onset of heat waves and strong winds in spring, and
• Hail storms at commencement of summer.
 Organizations involved in weather forecasting
• Several organizations all over the world measure weather
elements and forecast weather conditions. Accepted norms are
developed for measuring, assigning values and codes for
different countries.
• India Meteorological Department was established in 1975
with headquarters at Pune.
• Agricultural Meteorological Division was started in 1932 for
conducting research on crop weather relationships. A major
step was taken in the early forties to set up specialized
meteorological observatories in crop environment to inculcate
weather consciousness among farmers and to develop farm
environment climatology. This has resulted in steady growth
of observatories, besides agrometobservatories, synoptic
weather stations also record data such as rainfall
temperature, radiation, wind velocity, evaporation, etc. ,
• The National Commission on Agriculture recommended
establishment of Principal Agromet Observatories in each of
the Agricultural Universities
• The synoptic observatories collect information on various
weather elements on the basis of which daily forecasts,
warnings and weather reports are prepared by five regional
forecasting centres situated at Chennai, Nagpur, Mumbai,
Delhi and Kolkata.
• The regional centres also prepare forecast of weather known
as weather bulletins indicating the probable date to onset of
monsoon, intensity, duration, breaks in rainfall and other
adverse weather phenomenon.
• The bulletins are broadcasted in the regional languages
through radio and television along with rural programmes
 Climatic normals
The climatic normals are the average value of 30 years of a
particular weather element. The period may be week, month and
year.
The crop distribution, production and productivity depends on
climatic normals of a place.
If the crops are selected for cultivation based on the optimum
climatic requirements it is likely that the crop production can be
maximized.
 Essentials of weather forecasting
• Proper recording of data.
• Careful study of synoptic charts.
• Search for similar situation from the historical data.
• Preparation of the weather condition chart as may be possible
in next 24 hours, and
• Drawing quick, correct levels and definite conclusions
regarding future weather phenomenon.
 Elements included in weather
forecasting
• The elements of agricultural weather forecasts vary from place
to place and from season to season, but they should refer to all
weather elements, which affect farm planning and/or
operations, and they ideally would include (WMO, 2001).
• Sky coverage by clouds
• Precipitation
• Temperature (maximum, minimum and dew point)
• Relative humidity
• Wind Speed and direction
• Extreme events (heat and cold waves fog, frost, hail,
thunderstorms, wind squalls and gales, low pressure areas,
different intensities of depressions, cyclones, tornados, …)
• Bright hours of sunshine
• Solar radiation
• Dew
• Leaf wetness
• Pan evaporation
• Soil
• Soil moisture stress conditions and supplementary
irrigation for rainfed crops
• Advice for irrigation timing and quantity in terms of pan
evaporation
• Specific information about the evolution of meteorological
variables into the canopy layer in some specific cases
• Micro-climate inside crops in specific cases
 Agricultural applications of short range
weather forecasting
• Determine depth of sowing for optimal seedling
emergence.
• Decide whether to sow or not.
• Plan irrigation based on expected rainfall.
• Ensure maximum efficiency of spraying.
• Decide to harvest or not to harvest.
• Management of labour and equipment
• Plan for animal feed requirement.
• Livestock protection from cold and heat
 Agricultural Applications of long range
weather forecasting
• Crop Planning – Marginal crops Vs Normal Crops
• Choose crop varieties to suit the expected weather
• Determine expected crop yield
• Plan area to be cultivated to get the required crop produce
Methods of weather forecasting

The nature of modern weather forecasting is not only highly

complex but also highly quantitative.
The various methods used in forecasting the weather are as
follows:
Synoptic weather forecasting,
Numerical methods, and
Statistical methods
 Synoptic weather forecasting
• The first method is the traditional approach in weather
prediction. This primary method continued to be in use until
the late 1950s. Synoptic" means that the observation of
different weather elements refers to a specific time of
observation.
• Thus, a weather map that depicts atmospheric conditions at a
given time is a synoptic chart to a meteorologist.
• In order to have an average view of the changing pattern of
weather, a meteorological centre prepares a series of synoptic
charts every day
 Synoptic charts
• These are the basic tool used to predict weather.
• An enormous volume of meteorological data is being
collected from all over the world continuously round the
clock through various telecommunication channels
• To assess, assimilate and analyse the vast data, they have to
be suitably presented
• For this purpose, the observations are plotted on maps in
standard weather codes
• These maps are called ‘Synoptic maps or charts’ Synoptic
charts display the weather conditions at a specified time over
a large geographical area
• The surface synoptic charts plotted for different synoptic
hours (00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21 UTC) depict the
distribution of pressure, temperature, dew point, clouds,
winds, present and past weather.
• In place of GMT, UTC (Universal Time Co ordinate)
is used.
• The upper air charts are also prepared at the standard pressure
levels of the atmosphere (different heights) of the atmosphere
wherein the pressure, wind and temperature are plotted
• The surface charts together with the upper air charts provide a
composite three-dimensional weather picture pertaining to a given
time. Thus it gives a birds eye view of the state of atmosphere at a
time over a large area and is a important tool used by operational
meteorologists and scientists.
• The surface synoptic charts are the most used charts. It contains
the maximum number of observations with the largest number of
parameters plotted and often forms the base on which the pressure
level charts are built up
• The pattern of the pressure distribution is brought out by drawing
isobars, troughs, ridges, lows, highs, depressions, cyclones, cols,
fronts etc.
• These systems are clearly marked and labeled using appropriate
symbols and colours. In synoptic charts different weather
phenomena and atmospheric characters are marked with different
symbols.
S.No. Symbol Weather
element/phenomeno
n
1 Narrow black lines Isobar

2 Numbers at ends of isobars Pressure values

in hPa/mbar
3 Shading Precipitation

4 Arrows Wind direction

5 Feathers in the arrows Wind velocity

6 Small circles with shading Amount of clouds

In addition to the above, different symbols are used

for recording weather phenomena
• https://www.weatheronline.in/weather/maps
/forecastmaps?LANG=in&UP=0&R=0&MORE=
1&MAPS=vtx&CONT=inin&LAND= &ZEIT=20
1904020600
 Weather charts
• Weather charts consist of curved lines drawn on a geographical
map in such a way as to indicate weather features. These
features are best shown by charts of atmospheric pressure,
which consist of isobars (lines of equal pressure) drawn
around depressions (or lows) and anticyclones (or highs).
Other features on a weather chart are fronts and troughs. These
are drawn to highlight the areas of most significant weather,
but that does not mean that there is nothing of significance
elsewhere on the chart
 Weather systems
• High pressure or anticyclones
Anticyclones are areas of high pressure, whose centres are
often less well defined than depressions, and are associated
with quiet, settled weather.
Winds blow in a clockwise direction around anticyclones in
the northern hemisphere, this is reversed in the southern
hemisphere.
• Low pressure or depressions: Depressions are areas of low
pressure, usually with a well- defined centre, and are
associated with unsettled weather.
• Winds blow in an anticlockwise direction
around depressions in the northern
hemisphere, this is reversed in the southern
hemisphere
 Fronts
• Early weather charts consisted simply of station plots and
isobars, with the weather being written as comments, like
'Rain, heavy at times'.
• Three types of fronts were identified which depend on the
relative movement of the air masses.
• Cold Front: A cold front marks the leading edge of an
advancing cold air mass. On a synoptic chart a cold front
appear as a blue line with triangles. The direction in which the
triangles point is the direction in which the front is moving
• Warm Front: A warm front marks the leading edge of an
advancing warm air mass. On a synoptic chart a warm front
appears as a red line with semi-circles. The direction in which
the semi-circles point is the direction in which the front is
moving.
• Occlusion (or occluded front): Occlusions form when the
cold front of a depression catches up with the warm front,
lifting the warm air between the fronts into a narrow wedge
above the surface. On a synoptic chart an occluded front
appears as a purple line with a combination of triangles and
semi-circles. The direction in which the symbols point is the
direction in which the front is moving.
• Isobars are lines joining places with equal
mean sea-level pressures (MSLP).
 Relationship between isobars and
wind
• Wind is a significant feature of the weather. A fine, sunny day
with light winds can be very pleasant. Stronger winds can
become inconvenient and, in extreme cases, winds can be
powerful enough to cause widespread destruction.
• The wind can easily be assessed when looking at a weather
map by remembering that:
• closer isobars mean stronger winds;
• the wind blows almost parallel to the isobars; in the northern
hemisphere, the wind blows round a depression in an
anticlockwise direction and around an anticyclone in a
clockwise direction.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
• Uses the power of computers to make a forecast.
• Complex computer programs, also known as forecast models,
run on supercomputers and provide predictions on many
atmospheric variables such as temperature, pressure, wind,
and rainfall.
• A forecaster examines how the features predicted by the
computer will interact to produce the day's weather.
• The NWP method is flawed in that the equations used by the
models to simulate the atmosphere are not precise.
• If the initial state is not completely known, the computer's
prediction of how that initial state will evolve will not be
entirely accurate.
• In this technique the behaviour of atmosphere is represented
by equations based on physical laws governing air movement,
air pressure and other information.
• This technique is found suitable for medium range forecasts.
Accurate meteorological data coupled with modern weather
prediction techniques and transmission of data through
telemetric network with suitable backing agricultural support
systems, will imply a sea-chamber in ability to plan agriculture
in an optional way for a given set of weather conditions
 Statistical methods
• Statistical methods are used along with the numerical weather
prediction.
• This method often supplements the numerical method.
Statistical methods use the past records of weather data on the
assumption that future will be a repetition of the past weather.
• The main purpose of studying the past weather data is to find
out those aspects of the weather that are good indicators of the
future events.
• After establishing these relationships, correct data can be
safely used to predict the future conditions. Only overall
weather can be predicted in this way. It is particularly of use in
projecting only one aspect of the weather at a time.
• At macro level, weather forecasting is usually done using the
data gathered by remote sensing satellites Maximum
temperature, minimum temperature, extent of rainfall, cloud
conditions, wind streams and their directions, are projected
using images taken by these meteorological satellites to assess
future trends.
• The satellite-based systems are inherently costlier and
require complete support system.
• Moreover, such systems are capable of providing only
such information, which is usually generalized over a
larger geographical area.
• The variables defining weather conditions like
temperature (maximum or minimum), relative
humidity, rainfall etc., vary continuously with time, forming
time series of each parameter and can be used to develop a
forecasting model either statistically or using some other
means like artificial neural networks.
Regression equations or other sophisticated
relationships are established between
different weather elements and the resulting
climate.
Normal selection of predictors of weather
parameters is based on possible physical
relationship with the predictant.
These techniques are useful for short as well
as for long range forecasting.
Multiple regression equation developed to
provide annual rainfall based on 16
parameters is quite successful in India.
 Accuracy and usefulness of weather
forecasting for agriculture
Forecast type Accuracy Potential usefulness

Now-casting (NC) Very high Low

Short Range Forecast (SRF) High High

Medium Range Forecast (MRF) High Very high

Extended Range Forecast (ERF) Moderate Poor

Long Range Forecast (LRF) Very low Poor

 Weekly/seasonal rainfall distribution
on regional scale
Category Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal
rainfall

Excess Rainfall + 20% or more

Normal Rainfall - 19 % to + 19 %

Deficient Rainfall – 20 % to - 59 %

Scanty Rainfall – 60 % to - 99 %

No rain – 100 %
The Advanced Weather Interactive
Processing System (AWIPS)

• AWIPS Workstation provides various maps and

overlays on different screens
Disseminating weather information
through different agencies
 UNIT VI
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN INDIA
AND CROP WEATHER CALENDAR
 Weather and Agriculture
• Indian agriculture has, for centuries, been solely dependent on the
weather and the vagaries of the monsoon in particular.
• Uncertainties of weather and climate pose a major threat to food
security of the country.
• Extreme weather events like heavy rains, cyclone, hail storm, dry
spells, drought, heat wave, cold wave and frost causes
considerable loss in crop production every year.
• An efficient use of available climatic resources, besides soil &
water resources, minimizes the adverse effect of extreme weather
and makes benefit of favourable weather
• Weather services provide a very special kind of inputs to the
farmer as advisories that can make a tremendous difference to the
agriculture production by taking the advantage of benevolent
weather and minimize the adverse impact of malevolent weather
 Weather Service to Agriculture
• In order to provide direct services to the farming community
of the country an exclusive Division of Agricultural
Meteorology was set up in 1932 under the umbrella of India
Meteorological Department (IMD) at Pune with the
objective to minimize the impact of adverse weather on crops
and to make use of favourable weather to boost agricultural
production.
The major activities of the Division are:
• Technical Assistance
• Research & Development
• Services
• Human Resource Development
Integrated Agromet Advisory Services
• To meet the farmer’s need in real-time Agromet Advisory
Service (AAS), Integrated Agromet Advisory Service in
the country involving all the concerned organizations viz.,
• Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR),
• Ministry of Agriculture (Centre & State),
• State Agricultural Universities (SAUs)
• and other agencies has been started from April 2007.
 Different Tiers in IAAS

Tier1-Apex Policy Planning Body

Tier2-National Agromet Service Headquarter (Execution)

Tier3- State Agromet Centres-28

Tier4-AMFUs at Agroclimatic zone level-130

Tier5-District Level Extension and Traning-612

Collaborating agencies under IAAS
• State Agricultural Universities (SAU)
• Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and its
Research Institutes
• Indian Institute of Technology
• State and Union Departments of Agriculture
• Prasar Bharati and other media (Radio, TV and Print)
 Network of Observatories
• The Division of Agricultural Meteorology maintains and
provides technical support to a wide range of Agromet
Observatories from where different kinds of data on agromet
parameters are generated.
• IMD’s Central Agricultural Meteorological Observatory
located
at Pune, is equipped with a wide range of instruments for
measurement of agro meteorological parameters like
evaporation, soil temperature, soil moisture, radiation fluxes,
dew, microclimatic profiles, besides routine meteorological
observations.
• The observatory also serves as the testing ground for new
instruments and experimental techniques.
• There are 264 agro met observatories in the country to record
agro meteorological parameters.
• 219 open pan evaporimeters are installed to record evaporation
• Evapotranspiration (ET) in plant environment is measured by
means of lysimeters at 42 stations. This helps to determine the
water requirements of crops.
• There are 43 soil moisture recording stations. Soil moisture at
different depths (7.5, 15, 30, 45, 60 cm) of the soil is recorded
from 43 stations to formulate irrigation scheduling of crops.
• The data recorded in the above mentioned observatories are
being utilized for operational services such as advising the
farmers through Agromet Advisory Services. Besides a
number of organizations utilize the data for research, irrigation
and water resources planning, management of drought, flood etc.
• It is proposed to install 127 Agrometeorological Automatic
Weather Stations (AWS) at Agrometeorological Field Units
(AMFU’s) located at State Agriculture Universities (SAUs),
institutes of Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR),
Indian Institute of Technology under Integrated Agromet
Advisory Services (IAAS).
• Installation of Agro-AWS is also under consideration in all the
Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVK) in the country.
 Broad Spectrum of Agromet
Advisories
• Sowing/ transplanting of kharif crops based on onset of monsoon
• Sowing of rabi crops using residual soil moisture
• Fertilizer application based on wind condition
• Delay in fertilizer application based on intensity of rain
• Prediction of occurrence of pest and disease based on weather
• Protective measures at appropriate time to eradicate pest
• and diseases
• Weeding/Thinning at regular interval for better growth and
• development for crop.
• Irrigation at critical stage of the crop.
• Quantum and timing of irrigation using meteorological
• threshold.
• Advisories for timely harvest of crops
 District Level AAS based on Medium
Range Weather Forecast
• IMD has started issuing quantitative district level (612
districts) weather forecast upto 5 days from 1st June,
2008.
• The products comprise of quantitative forecasts for 7
weather parameters viz., rainfall, maximum and minimum
temperatures, wind speed and direction, relative humidity
and cloudiness.
• In addition, weekly cumulative rainfall forecast is also
provided. IMD, New Delhi generates these products
based on a Multi Model Ensemble technique using
forecast products available from number of models of
India and other countries
• These include: T-254 model of NCMRWF,
• T-799 model of European Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (ECMWF);
• United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO),
• National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA
and
• Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
• The products are disseminated to Regional Meteorological
Centres and Meteorological Centres of IMD located in
different States. These offices undertake value addition to
these products and communicate to 130 AgroMet Field Units
(AMFUs).
• It was proposed to prepare and publish the AAS bulletins for
all the districts by December 2009
 District Level Agroadvisory System

IMD, NEW DELHI

Preparation of District wise

130 Agrimet Field Units
Preparation of district
wise advisories for District Agricultural
concerned agroclimate
Officer of State
Govt
medium range weather
forecast
Dissemination of
district wise agro
advisories

Feedback

Farmers through media

 Dissemination of Advisories
Dissemination of Agromet advisories is done through:
• 1. All India Radio (AIR) and Doordarshan
• 2. Private TV and radio channels
• 3. Newspaper
• 4. Internet
• 5. ICAR and other related Institutes / Agricultural Universities /
• Extension network of State / Central Agriculture Departments
• 6. Krishi Vigyan Kendras
• 7. Advisories are delivered to the end users without any delay.
• 8. Interactive tuning of advisories with the farmers / managers as
• frequently as possible.
• 9. It is disseminated in English and local languages / dialects and
• is easily understandable by farmers
 Outreach of advisories at
District/Block/Village level
• Linkages between Districts Agricultural Offices (DAOs) and
AMFUs level are being developed for effective dissemination
of advisories at district, block and village levels
 Extension of Advisories
• Extension wing of the State Departments of Agriculture, State
Agricultural Universities, Indian Council of Agricultural
Research Institutes are working for application of the
advisories in the farmer’s fields
 Feedback & Awareness of Agromet
Service
In order to improve the quality of the agromet advisory services,
regular direct interactions are being made by the AMFUs with the
farmers, AMFUs, State AAS units and Agrimet Division are
regularly participating in Kisan Melas farmer’s gathering etc to
interact with the farmers personally and collect the feedback from
farmers.
Roving seminars are being organized in different States by
AMFUs to create awareness about usefulness of
weather/climate information, agromet advisory services among
the farming community
 Crop Yield Forecasting
➢ A need for quantitative crop yield forecast outlooks has been
felt for quite sometime.
➢ A beginning towards its realization has been made by
undertaking a study of past crop yield in relation to
meteorological parameters, principally rainfall and
temperature.
➢ Based on these studies quantitative crop yield forecast
formulae have been developed for 22 sub divisions in the
country for kharif rice and 9 sub divisions for wheat.
➢ The tentative forecast for crop yield is being issued every
month during the crop season using this methodology
 Research & Development
• From the inception, the Agrimet Division is working on
research and development programmes to strengthen the
operational agrometeorological services in the country
 Microclimatic Study
• The subject of micro-climates received intensive attention and
significant contributions have been made in this field of
research.
• Research activity in the field of microclimatology was carried
out extensively by various personnel from IMD as well as
others.
• Systematic observations on the characteristic micro-climates
of the air layers close to the ground in the open and inside
various crops have been recorded, and a large volume of
micro-climatological data collected
 Cropping patterns
• By analyzing the rainfall records of 2000 stations for 70 years,
the periods and amounts of “assured rainfall” have been
worked out for various regions particularly in the dry farming
tract of India.
▪ The length of dry spells and wet spells during the monsoon,
drought proneness and agro-climatic classifications have also
been studied with climatological data.
• This information is helpful in choosing appropriate crops for
various regions, determining the most favourable growing
seasons for rainfed crops and selecting drought tolerant crop
strains
 Sowing dates
• Optimum dates for sowing have been determined for the States
of Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, by
using daily rainfall data from 1901 onwards.
• Such information helps in deciding the best period for sowing
operations, water conservation measures and evolution of
appropriate cropping patterns.
 Water use management
❖ Even in those parts of the country where irrigation facilities
exist, the crop production can be maximized by better
scheduling of irrigation.
❖ Scarce resources can be economically used by providing water
to crops when it is known to be most beneficial.
❖ For this, precise water requirements of crops at various growth
stages are being studied through field experiments and regular
lysimeter measurements of evapotranspiration
 Crop weather analysis
• Theoretical models of crop weather relationship enable to
understand, quantitatively, the role played by weather elements
on crop growth and yield

• Variability of soil moisture and soil temperature and the

contribution of dew have been studied in relation to crop
growth

• Fluctuations in weather with regard to crop factors like leaf

area index, stomatal resistance, crop coefficient, and dry
matter production have been studied.
• Energy balance of the crop canopy for cereals and legumes are
being worked out.
• A number of crop weather calendars were prepared based on
crop weather studies.
• Crop growth simulation models (DSSAT) are being used to
develop crop weather relation as well as crop yield forecasting
 Remote sensing applications
• Satellite remote sensing techniques have been used for acreage
estimation of crops.
• Spectral response of crops at various growth stages and states
are studied to help crop identification.
• Soil moisture studies using remote sensing technique were
made
 Crop weather analysis
• Theoretical models of crop weather relationship enable to
understand, quantitatively, the role played by weather elements on
crop growth and yield
• Variability of soil moisture and soil temperature and the
contribution of dew have been studied in relation to crop growth
• Fluctuations in weather with regard to crop factors like leaf area
index, stomatal resistance, crop coefficient, and dry matter
production have been studied.
• Energy balance of the crop canopy for cereals and legumes are
being worked out.
• A number of crop weather calendars were prepared based on crop
weather studies.
• Crop growth simulation models (DSSAT) are
being used to develop crop weather relation as well as crop yield
forecasting
 Crop protection
❖ Considerable research has been done on the weather
conditions conducive to outbreaks of crop pests and disease
like paddy stem borer, jowar shoot fly, cotton bollworm,
sugarcane borers, groundnut tikka, potato beetle and wheat
rusts.
❖ The results help to organize timely crop protection measures
with optimum use of expensive chemicals.
❖ The desert locust breeding and invasion has been extensively
studied in relation to soil and weather conditions
 Drought Studies
• By analyzing rainfall data since 1875, the probability of
occurrence of drought in various parts of India has been
worked out.
• Different parameters like water availability, soil moisture
stress, aridity index have been studied.
• Droughts are monitored by deriving aridity anomalies on a
fortnightly basis in the kharif season and weekly basis in the
northeast monsoon season over the southern peninsula
 Dry Land Farming
• The area having annual rainfall between 40-100 cm and
practically with no irrigation facilities is known as dry farming
tract.
• Dry farming tract comprise 87 districts and is spread over
Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and
Tamilnadu.
• Extensive research was carried out on assessment of short
period rainfall probability, compilation of frequency, duration
and intensity of dry and wet spells, assessment and seasonal
and diurnal variation of meteorological parameters, derivation
of agroclimatic zones and sub-zones
 Weather and Phenology of Crops
• Phenology is the science which deals with the recurrence of
the important phases of animal and vegetation life in relation
to the march of seasons during the year.
• The dates of manifestation of phytophase constitute an integral
of climatic effects as they take into account the weather over
past periods and also the weather at the moment.
• Studies were made to observe the effect on climatic factors on
the flowering, fruiting and maturity of four trees i.e.,
mango,neem, tamarind and babul.
• The observations were taken about 200 phenological stations
located in the Agricultural Farms, Soil Conservation Centre
and Meteorological Stations
 Crop Weather Calendar
The pictorial representation of detailed information for a crop w.r.t.
sowing period and duration of important phenological stages in its
life cycle,the optima of climatic requirement during different
stages of the crop and the actual and normal weather for that
station / location is called the Crop Weather Calendar
Crop weather calendars by IMD

IMD prepared district-wise crop-weather calendars almost two

decades ago using normal weather, crop water requirement for
major cereals, pulses and oilseed crops.

Later IMD has revised these by incorporating present cropping

patterns, soil types and conditions favorable for development of
pests and diseases.

Information provided in the calendars give broad indications of the

progress of growth of the crop along with climate direction of
development which may prove useful to the planners, agricultural
administrators, plant breeders and the farmers in the formulating
policy matters regarding plant breeding, crop adoption, drought
proofing, supplemental irrigation, maximising the yield etc
Crop weather calendars designed by All India Coordinated Research
Project on Agrometeorology

AICRPAM has 25 co-operating centres operating in all the states of India

carrying out research (agroclimatic characterization, crop weather
relationships, crop growth modeling and influence of weather on pests and
disease development) and extension activities (agromet advisory services).

A wealth of experimental data on crop phenology and daily meteorological

conditions have been archived in different crops for more than 30 years.
These data were used in the designing of location specific crop-weather
calendars with an intent to improve the agromet advisory services.

These crop-weather-pest and disease calendars act as a guiding tool while

issuing Agromet-advisory for the farmers of the region.
These calendars can also be used for advising the farmers for need based
spraying of the insecticides and pesticides
Climatic normals for location specific crop growing season is
presented in the upper portion.

Phenological events of the crop are represented in a weekly time

frame in the middle portion together with favorable climatic
parameters to realize potential or optimum yield.

On the lower part of the calendar, the favourable weather

conditions for development of pests and diseases are reported.
Climatic criteria for high productivity of crop

Crop-weather calendar for rice and wheat was formulated by

combining the weekly climatic averages and phenological
calendar for the crop along with optimum weather criteria needed
at different phenological stages of the crop.

In addition to the above information, crop weather calendars

consist of climatic indicators for high productivity.

Data from 1999-2009 was used to find out the stage-wise climatic
normal for high productivity of crop. The range of different
meteorological parameters for the high productivity of rice and
wheat crop at Ludhiana was worked out from the actual
meteorological data of high productivity cropyear.
How to use “Crop Weather Calender” in issuing agromet
advisory?
A crop weather calendar is an effective tool which can be used in
issuing value added weather based agromet advisory for crops.
Some of the practical uses of the crop weather calendar for rice
and wheat crops at Ludhiana conditions are as under
Rice
In the crop weather calendar for rice crop the susceptible stage of
rice crop for
Bacterial blight, Blast of rice from seedling and tillering (i.e.
July month) stage. Hence, if the current meteorological
conditions during that growth stage of rice crop are within the
favourable range for pest occurence, then the agrometeorologist
may give warning for the occurence of the pest.
Also the remedial measures (insecticide spray schedule) for the
pest can be added in the agromet advisory.
Wheat: In the crop weather calendar for wheat crop, (fig. 12)
during the anthesis and grain filling stage of wheat (February-
March months) the maximum temperature should be within 17-25
ºc and minimum temperature within 4-9ºC.
However, if the temperature rise by 3-4ºC from the optimum
temperature limit for more than 4-5 days in a week, then if no
remedial measures are
taken, the productivity of the wheat crop is adversely affected.
Therefore, the agrometeorologist may immediately give an
advisory to farmers for applying additional irrigation to offset the
negative effect of heat wave in wheat crop
Major change in crop weather advice
India Meteorological Department (IMD) plans to change its weather advisory
service for farmers, linking it to a dynamic crop calendar of each district, based
on the onset and progress of the monsoon.

The advisory will also have information on the type of crop needing to be sown,
depending on irrigation and rain in that region, with a contingency plan if
showers fail. According to senior officials, the improved advisories as part of
IMD’s Grameen Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS).

The Central Institute of Dryland Agriculture already has a model for a

dynamic crop calendar. It prepared this in 2015 for 25 districts across 22 states,
using the results of 30 years of field experiments. It has been prepared for major
crops — rice, wheat, groundnut, soybean, maize, mustard, cotton.

The met plans to use the same model, linking with the onset and progress of
the monsoon. “We are getting district-specific rain requirement for all the 640
districts in the country, based on which a rainfall outlook will be issued, along
with details like whether supplementary irrigation is required or
not,” IMD head K J Ramesh told newspaper
Instructions on how to deal with high-value crops like horticulture and
floriculture would be included.
The four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June is the
lifeline for Indian agriculture. Less than half of farm land is irrigated.
Rainfall varies between agro-climatic zones and across districts.
At present, under the GKMS, the met provides crop-specific advisories
to farmers at the district level twice a week, through print, radio and
visual media, beside SMS and an Integrated Voice Response System.
Around 12 million farmers are covered under this advisory of the 140
farmer households in the country.
Studies reveal a declining trend in the all-India summer monsoon rainfall
over the past 60 years, which is expected to continue. This, with the
increasing frequency of erratic monsoon behavior, irregular rainfall
patterns, and intense unseasonal and extreme weather events will result
in more losses, damages and grief to farmers, especially smallholders
who have hardly any means to cope with these climate-induced
disasters,” the article noted.