GENERAL ¨ ARTICLE

Fermi and the Art of Estimation

Rajaram Nityananda

Rajaram Nityananda
worked at the Raman
Research Institute in
Bangalore and the
National Centre for
Radio Astrophysics in
Pune, and has now
started teaching at the
Indian Institute for
Science Education and
Research, Pune. He has
worked on problems in
optics, dynamics, and
statistical physics, often
applied to astronomy. The
role of puzzles,
paradoxes, physical
arguments and connec-
tions/analogies between
different areas are a
significant preoccupation.

Keywords
Fermi estimate, order of magni-
tude, dimensional analysis.

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 GENERAL ¨ ARTICLE

How many
coconut trees are
there in Kerala.
How many
molecules of
argon right now in
your lungs
had passed
through the lungs
of Akbar in his
lifetime?

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The balance wheel

will now shed some
ten percent of its
burden of air. We
can then expect
the watch to run
faster, when
compared to sea
level, by
about ten seconds
or less per day,
which is detectable
by a careful
observer.

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“I could observe very

distinctly
and actually measure
the displacement of
the pieces of
paper that were in the
process of falling
while the blast was
passing. The shift was
about 2.5 meters,
which, at the time, I
estimated to
correspond to the
blast that would be
produced by ten
thousand tons of
T.N.T.”
– Fermi

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Box 2. continued...

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Box 2. continued...

Figure A (left). The distribution of density with distance at various times, as the fireball expands.
Notice that it retains its shape, but changes in length scale (proportionally to time to the power of 2/
5). This applies to the initial, so-called ‘Sedov’ phase of the explosion.
Figure B (right). At a much later stage, we are dealing with a sound wave, whose profile – a sharp
compression followed by a longer rarefraction, is named after Friedlander.

1 Three famous scientists, von Neumann in the US, Taylor in the UK, and Sedov in the USSR arrived at this
solution, independently of each other because of W orld W ar II secrecy and lack of communication in the
following era.

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Within half a kilometre

of the explosion
buildings are knocked
over, temperatures
rise to thousands of
degrees. It is filled
with blinding
radiation and deadly
radioactive debris
gradually spreading
from the bomb itself.

These methods
work best when
used by someone
with the same
intellect and insight
into all aspects of
physics as Fermi

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The Fermi estimate

is just the tip of an
iceberg, a very small
part of a total
physicist – some
would say the last of
this kind. However, it
is this part of Fermi
which we can all
appreciate and learn
from.

Suggested Reading

[1] Laura Fermi, Atoms in the Family: My Life with Enrico Fermi, The
University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1961.
[2] Enrico Fermi, Notes on Quantum Mechanics, The University of Chicago Address for Correspondence
Press, Chicago, 1961; Enrico Fermi, Thermodynamics, Dover Publica- Rajaram Nityananda
tions, 1956, These two books are in Fermi’s own handwriting and reflect Physics Group,
his personal style. HR-4, IISER
[3] V F Weisskopf, Modern Physics from an Elementary Point of View, Pune 411 008, India.
Geneva, European Organization for Nuclear Research, 1969. Email:
[4] G Venkataraman, Why are Things the Way They Are?, Universities Press, rajaram.nityananda@gmail.com
1997.

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