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    MMPC 005 EM 2022 23 IGNOUAssignmentGuru - GURUji Uq7eys

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    PHONE NO: 9811854308 Assignment GURU 8 z : : 4 i g y Qizz ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS i osisenisasoe ‘http://www. ignouassignmentguru.com ASSIGNMENT GURU ASSIGNMENT. Course Code ——=>~~«MMPC-005 Course Title + Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications Assignment Code =: MMPC-008/TMA/JULY/2022, Coverage 2 AllBlocks Note: Attempt all the questions and submit this centre. (Last date of submissi yment to the coordinator of your study for July 2022 session is 31“ October, 2022 and for January 2023 session is 30" April, 2023). 1 ‘The income of a group of 10,000 persons was found to be normally distributed with mean Rs.750 per month and a standard deviation of Rs. $0, show that of this group about 95% hhas income exceeding Rs. 668 and only 5% had income exceeding Rs. 832. (area between 750 and 668 = 0.4495, area between 750 and 832 = 0.4495). ‘Why is forecasting so important in business? Explain the application of forecasting for Jong term decisions, What do you understand by Primary Data? What are the various methods of collecting primary data? Also, mention what points to be kept in mind while designing the questionnaire? ‘The means of two large samples of sizes 1000 and 2000 are 67.5 and 68.0 respectively. Test the quality of the means of the two populations each with standard deviation of 2.5. (2 table value at 2 os=-1.96). Write short notes on any two of the following:- (a) Mathematical Properties of Arithmetic Mean (b) Stratified Sampling (©) Exponential Distribution (€) Time Series Analysis IGNMENT GURU_Page- 1 NOU. . SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS al i siset18s30¢ /uwwsignouassignmentguru.com ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU 2022-23 Course Code: MMPC-005 Course Title: Quantitative Analysis for Managerial Applications Assignment Code: MMPC-005/TMA/JULY/2022 Coverage: All Blocks S| fre pape by ne Tesch fr he haan qd of test aie whe an ns Case gen he a Fate Rime oneness meanmonaly ores ce a {Ze Pept by th its endo ter co nce: ceo akc be io. ny Orso er Ear iy oad gh cv cas 4 Sion sara pp he ue race Rae cra rnc pupa Fi feo wir pt 5 Satna dt ndaatn Sadness rox noon obo ta yeep cndlty fone sagan sees 8 Sete tara sacar a g Z| Z| 2 z = Solution, Meafi= = 750 12 = Standard deviation = 6 = 50 5 Bg = and 6 . 668 =750 (i) Ifx, = 668, then a =- 164 0 . 50 P(x, > 668)= P(e, < 1.64) O.5+ Ph 164 $250) 54P(0s2 15 1.64) = 05+0.4495 0.9495, Percentage of persons having income exceeding 668 = 94.95% = 95% (aaprox.) id And iOS. 832-750, 1 50 (ii) If'x = 832, shes = 164 P (8 832)= PE> 64) 0.5 - 0.4495 5 0.0505 OC ae Percentage of persons having income exceeding ®. 832 = 5.05% IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU _Page-2 (approx.) Yu @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU a Zz 3g z g q ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS ZOU 18811854308 /uwwignouassignmentguru, ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU Answer: Business forecasting consists of tools and techniques used to predict changes in business, such as sales, expenditures, profits and losses. The goal of business forecasting is to. develop better strategies based on these informed predictions; helping to eliminate potential failure or losses before they happen. Forecasting allows your company to become proactive in directing its future. By aggregating and analysing past data, predictions can be made about future trends and changes. While possible to create forecasts without any historical data, being able to add in as many details as possible will make forecasts more accurate. You may be questioning the importance of forecasting in business, which is why you've decided to read this post. Well, simply put, financial forecasts are an essential part of business planning, budgeting, operations, and funding. Forecasts enable stakeholders to make better choices to inform on financial and operational decisions, based on current market conditions and how they may look in the future. Forecasting will allow you to make financial decisions such as whether to fund a capital project, undertake a staffing increase or seek funding. It will also serve as an estimate of future financial outcomes for a company, and it’s an integral part of the annual budget process. ‘The insights gained from this will be crucial Moving forward. They will determine whether your company’s current strategy is future-proof. A timely forecast provides a clear idea of whether or not you will require to pull funds for continuity: In determining whether you need to pivot, forecasts can yield valuable insight into mapping out new strategies that your business could use to survive. A projection provides a better perspective for financial decision making as it provides valuable insight based on how curtent decisions can impact future outcomes. Three ways forecasting can help your organization excel: 1. Helps set goals and’plan Forecasting al tows businesses setreasonable and measurable goals based.on current and historical data, Having accurate data and statistics to analyze helps businesses to decide what amount of change, growth or improvement will be determined as a success. Having these goals helps to evaluate progress, and adapt business processes where needed to continue on the desired path. ‘There are certain tools Such as CRM which will be discussed later in this blog thathelp to visual forecasting and give insight into things like the sales pipeline, opportunities, and more, 2° Helps budget Having visibility into potential trends and changes help businesses to know where to allocate their budget and time spent on certain offerings such as products, services, or areas internally such as. hiring and adjusting strategy. As Investopedia states: "Budgeting quantifies the expectation of revenues that a business wants to achieve for a future period, whereas financial forecesting estimates the amount of revenue or income that will be achieved in a future period”. Having insights into current business functionality along with later predicted trends and combining ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU _Page-3 PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU a Zz 3g z g q y ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS i 18811854308 /uwwignouassignmentguru, ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU this information into meaningful insights makes fora better allocated and estimated budget. 3. Helps anticipate change within the market Having insight into not only current data but projections of what could happen in the future helps businesses to make adjustments to business strategy and alter current operations in order to change their outcome. Forecasting helps position businesses to become active instead of reactive. If there is a trend that is predicted to take over the market, or data is showing changes in consumer behavior itis important to readjust to the market overall and optimize resources to stand out from the competition. Forecasting tools Customer Relationship Management Many common True CRM Solutions come with an integrated forecasting module; this can be used to create forecasted sales reports; enabling sales teams to fine-tune their selling strategy. Sales Representatives can gain visibility into items such as their quotas at any given moment, while Sales Managers can make more informed business decisions on how their team should manage its resources. Below is an example of a sales pipeline within Sage CRM. This clickable diagram shows sales and management at a glance what opportunities are in the pipeline, addressing leads vs. qualified leads, what actions have'taken place and what actions are scheduled to take place. Having this visual helps to ensure opportunities are not missed or forgotten about. Below is an example of a dashboard in Sage CRM, reporting on real-time data within the solution. dashboard the pipeline is represented asa funnel, along with weekly trends and actual sales; Depending on roles and duties dashboards can be adjusted to fit a specific individual's needs. jlar to the pipeline shown above, in t Commonly referred to as “BI”, Business Intelligence takes raw.datain real-time endtursit into valuable and reliable information. This provides businesses the ability to make informed business decisions, faster. These integrated solutions are able to provide you with historical, current, and future data. BI tools use this data to create reports, summaries, dashboards, maps, graphs, and charts, providing detailed insights into business processes. Today, big/data and artificial intelligence have transformed business forecasting methods and they are continually evolving according to business needs and technology. As companies become more data-driven, efforts to share data and collaborate increases. A business intelligence system offers an effective way of acquiring the data that you need for better forecasting; with better forecasting comes a more efficient, productive, and cost-effective business. Making timely and informed decisions is critical to running a business. However, many organizations struggle to keep up with the growing amount of data being collected. Business intelligence facilitates and improves decision making based on real-time information while reducing complexity and costs related to data analysis and reporting. Below is an example of ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU_Page-4 PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU a Zz 3g z g q ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS y ZOU 18811854308 /uwwignouassignmentguru, ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU a dashboard in Sage Enterprise Intelligence, reporting on real-time data within an organization, Answer: primary data: Primary data is a type of data that is collected by researchers directly from main sources through interviews, surveys, experiments, etc. Primary data are usually collected from the source—where the data originally originates from and are regarded as the best kind of data in research, ‘The sources of primary data are usually chosen and tailored specifically to meet the demands or requirements of particularresearch. Also, before choosing a data collection source, things like the aim of the research and target population need to be identified. For example, when doing a market survey, the goal of the survey and the sample population need to be identified first. This is what will determine what data collection source will be most suitable— an offline survey will be more suitable for'a population living in remote areas without an internet connection compared to online surveys, Examples of Primary Data © Market Research This is an important aspect of business strategy that involves the process of gathering information about the target market and customers, The data gathered during market research is primary a: tailored specifically to meet the business needs. ‘An organization doing market research about a new product (say phone) they are about to release will need to collect data like purchasing power, feature preferences, daily phone usage, etc. from the target market. The data from past surveys are not used because the product differs, ‘= Student Thesis When conducting academic research or a thesis experiment, students collect data from the primary source. The kind of data collected during this process may vary according to the kind of research being performed—lab experiments, statistical data gathering, etc. For example, a student carrying out a research project to find out the effect of daily intake of fruit juice on an individual's weight will need to take a sample population of 2 or more people, feed them with fruit juice daily and record the changes in their weight. The data gathered throughout this process is primary. ¢ Trauma Survivors Although people react differently to trauma, there is usually a trait common to people who have gone through the same kind of trauma, The research aimed at finding out how victims of sexual abuse overcame the traumatic experience will include interviewing the survivors, sending them surveys, or any other primary source of data collection. ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU_Page-D PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU 8 z 3 4 i g ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS mz = ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU Methods of collecting primary data In this section, we present different methods of collecting primary data. In this context, we define an Investigator or Interviewer as one who conducts the statistical enquiry and the person from whom the information is collected is called a Respondent. The primary data comes in the following three formats. i. Survey data: The investigator or his agency meets the respondents and gets the required data, ji, Experimental data (field/laboratory): The investigator conducts an experiment, controlling the independent variables and obtains the corresponding values of the dependent variable, ili, Observational data: In the case of a psychological study or in a medical situation, the investigator simply observes and records the information about respondent. In other words the investigator behaves like a spectator. Points to be kept in mind while designing the questionnaire: Point 1# Importance of the Problem Under Study or the Formulation of the Problem: The formulation of problem forms the starting point for developing the questionnaire. If the problem under study is an important one, a higher response is expected, but if itis an ordinary one, and which does not have any social relevance for the respondent's life, the response is likely to be low. The problem formulated for study should be relevant forthe respondents. A researcher can expect higher response, if the problem under investigation directly focuses on the respondent's problem, Point 2# The Type of Information Required. Very extensive bodies of data cannot often be securéd throligh the Se of the questionnaire, The researcher should first find out the extent to which the desired data are already available in published reports and decide whether all or parts of the needed data canbe obtained through a formal questionnaire. In brief, the investigator must decide what aspects of the problem are to lie dealt with in a particular study through a formalquestionnaire. Point 3# Securing Help from the People who Possess the Experientce’n the Related Field: ‘The researcher should secure all the help he can, in planning and constructing his questionnaire. He should study other questionnaires and submit his questionnaire for a critical analysis to other membersof his research organisation onhis colleagues and especially to:those who possess the experience of questionnaire construction. Point 4# Thorough Knowledge about his Hypothesis He should thoroughly explore his hypothesis, experiences, the literature available in the concerned topic and other related field to frame his own questionnaire. It will help him to probe the crucial issues of his research problem in depth. Point 5# Clear Understanding of the Objective of the Study: He should attain a thorough knowledge of the field and a clear understanding of the objective of the investigation and of the nature of the data required for the investigation. ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU_Page-6 PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU 8 z 4 i g ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS uz 7 om ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU Point 6# A Proper Scrutiny: The questionnaire should be properly scrutinized for technical defect, quite apart from biases and blind spots arising out of personal values. Point 7H Numerous Revisions or Pre-Testing: Constructing a questionnaire calls for numerous revisions, in which variations of the same question should be given for an experimental trial. The same question posed in different ways very frequently may bring out different responses. This trial can be done through a pre-testing or a pilot study. A pre- testing is necessary to find out how the questionnaire works and whether changes are necessary before applying the actual questionnaire. ‘The pre-testing of elements provides a means for solving unforeseen problems in its administration in the field. it may also indicate the need for addition or deletion of questions. Sometimes a series of revisions and pre testing is needed. After a pre-testing the final editing has to be done to ensure that every element has been scrutinized. Editing is required to make the questionnaire as clear and as easy touse as possible. Point a Willingness of the Respondent: ‘The questionnaire is effective only when the respondent is able or willing to express his reactions clearly, The respondents must be chosen carefully. The questionnaire should be sent only to those Who possess the desired information and those who ere likely to be sufficiently interested to respond. Goode and Hatt say, “The respondent will not ordinarily answer 2 questionnaire dealing with a subject with which he is unfamiliar, such as air travel, impending legislation or experience with’a particular branch of the government or an occupation”. Point 3# Precision of the Hypothesis: The questionnaire is mostly useful when a considerable amount of exploratory work has narrowed the questions to be answered, What is more important here is the sharpness of the hypothesis. The more closely focused the hypothesis, the more effective is the questionnaire. Point 10# Size of the Questionnaire: ‘The questionnaire should be as short as possible. It should be only long enough to get the essential data. If the questionnaire is too lengthy. the response is likely.to be.poor. Point 11# Letter of Appeal: A cover letter almost always accompanies the questionnaire, requesting it the respondent to provide his co-operation. In the researcher should explain what he is going to do, why he is doing it and for whom hejis doing so? This appeal etter generally contains the name pf the research institution. carryingoi research, the objective of résea?ch, the benefit that is likely to go forrespondent or people in general. However the appeal should be brief, properly worded and impressive, Most of the respondents are not willing to read a long letter and lengthy appeal letter destroys its impact. Point 12# Prestige of the Research Institute: For the success of the questionnaire the prestige of the research organisation matters a lot. Usually if the research organisation conducting the study is well reputed, responsible and one scientific group, the response is likely to be high. People generally do not show their interest for giving response if the institution sanctioning the study is not known, reputed or of a doubtful integrity and in this case response is likely to be low. ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU_Page- 7 ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS ZOU 1919011854308 ouassignmentgur ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU In questionnaire method the cover letter should explain the character of the research organisation and its objective in a few sentences. It should also provide the impression of scientific competence, the address and telephone number of the research organisation. Nothing should appear to be hidden, ambiguous and suspicious. 3) Soluti Let 1, and j1, be the means of the two populations. 5 Given m, = 1000, n,= 2000 and. % = 67.5 inches, % = 68 inches 4 Population $.D, 6 =2.5 inches g Null Hypothesis #7, : The samples have beet drawn from the same population | of SD 2.5 inches al ie. H, =u, and o = 2.S:inches 2, Alternative Hypothesis Hy: , 4 1, 2 3. The test statistic is, 2 = aS s Ss 2.3? ) = £ ~0.5 2 ~ o0968 ~ *16 a (= Hence the mull hypothesis Hvis rejected atS%-leveh of significance and we conclude that|thé samples are-not drawn from thesame- population of $122.5 inches. 5.16 >1,96 i.e., the calculated value of => the table value of z Stratified sampling is @ selection method where the researcher splits the population of interest into homogeneous subgroups or strata before choosing the research sample. This method often comes to play when you're dealing with a large population, and it’s impossible to collect data from every member. 8 z 4 i g When splitting the population into smaller groups, the researcher relies on the naturally-occuring divisors such as geographical location, gender, education level, and age, to mention a few. For example, when conducting research on the level of education amongst women in a community, one can identify different population groups based on ethnicity, gender, religion, and income level. ‘The whole idea is to preserve the homogeneity within each group, so that no subset is excluded from the eventual sample. ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU_Page-8 PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU 8 z 4 i g ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS uz 7 om ‘ASSIGNMENT GURU How to Conduct Stratified Sampling Step fine the Population of Interest ‘The first thing you should do is map out the population of interest for your research. For example, if you're researching wild cats in Africa, your population of interest would be all the tigers, cheetahs, hyenas, and the like in Africa's forests, savannas, and mountains. Step 2: Break the population of interest into strata At this point, you should have specific parameters for splitting your target population into smaller, internally homogeneous groups. You can stratify the population-based on multiple criteria, or stick with a single parameter. Step 3: Now, place homogeneous variables into strata using the characteristics specified earlier. if your strata are based on gender, you can have something like this: * Characteristic/Parameter: Gender Identity ‘* Strata; Female, male, other © Groups: Males aged 18-35, Females aged 40-50, etc. Step 4: Choose the stratified sampling method for your target population. You can opt for disproportionate or proportionate stratified sampling. Step 5: Determine the ideal sample size for your systematic investigation. For this, you need to calculate the margin of error, standard deviation and confidence level of your data. When you have them, apply this formula: ‘Answer! The exponential distribution is a continuous probability distribution that times the occurrence of events. These events Gre independentand occut at asteady average rate.IMotherwords, it is used to model the time person needs.to wait before the given event happens, Itis a continuous countetpart of a geometric distribution. It's’ retoryless'random distribution comprising many small values and less large values. itis different from the Poisson distribution — Poisson predicts the number of times an event transpires in a given period and not the time gap. Calculation Follow the below steps to determine the exponential distribution for a given set of data: 1. First, decide whether the event under consideration is continuous and independent, Ascertain if it occurs at a roughly constant rate. For all practical events, the variable should be greater than or equal to zero. 2. Next, determine the value of the scale parameter, Its invariably the reciprocal of the mean; A 1/ mean. 3. Next, multiply the scale parameter A and the variable x. 4, Now, calculate the exponential function of the product multiplied by minus one, Le., e™. ‘uD @ Ei /IGNOUASSIGNMENTGURU IGNOU ASSIGNMENT GURU_Page-9 PHONE NO; 9811854308 Assignment GURU 8 z 4 i g ‘SOLVED ASSIGNMENTS ignou souseiesaz08 ASSIGNMENT GURU jeune 5. Finally, calculate the probability density function by multiplying the exponential function and the scale parameter. 6. If the above formula holds true for all x greater than or equal to zero, then x is an exponential distribution. Exponential Distribution Formula Mathematically, the probability density function is represented as: re x20 f(x) = ° x

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