Assess how the evolving trends and population

shifts in the United Kingdom will influence

the growth trajectory of either the restaurant or
gym industry in the next five years. Select
one industry and conduct a comprehensive analysis

Research shows that on average British people eat out 1.5 times a week. It also says 58% of
Brits spend most of their income on food. (OpenTable,2015) A conclusion can be drawn that the
restaurant industry provides a huge role in the lives of people of UK. However, with everything in
the world, certain factors always update the subject. The evolving trends and population shift in
the UK present challenges and opportunities for the restaurant industry over the next five years.
Factors such as diversity of cultures, age dynamics, fitness and veganism can change the
growth trajectory.
The population of the United Kingdom is 67,832,653 as of Monday December 4, 2023.
(WorldOMeter 2023) According to the Office for National Statistics, from mid-2020 to mid-2030
residents are forecasted to increase by 3.2% resulting in 69.2 million people by then. England
predicted to see the most growth at 3.5%. This is set to be significantly more than the likes of
Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. Migration is the main driving factor behind the growth in
population with an expectation of 2.2 million people expected over the following decade into the
UK. Additionally, the number of older people (aged eighty-five and over) is projected to double
by 2045. (Office for National Statistics, 2021)
Before Census 2021, the bulk of migrants in England and Wales for the foreseeable future were
from India and China. The top countries who are the non-UK born population with a UK
passport of England and Wales who are from Asia and Middle East are Bangladesh, India and
Pakistan (ONS, 2021) Therefore, since this is the trajectory for the population, the introduction
of more restaurants like Indian and Chinese could present an opportunity to seize full potential
of growth as the dynamic continues to shift. The challenge here is the ability to live up to the
flavours of these countries who are known for making delicious food. It is of importance as these
demographic changes happen, the restaurants must adapt to it to reap benefits.
Alongside this, age dynamic is a determining factor in the growth trajectory. UK food service
market can be categorized into full-service restaurants (staff task: order, give food, take money),
quick service (fast food restaurants), cafes, bars and cloud kitchen (takeaway and delivery
only). Each cater to diverse needs and preferences. As an increase of old people is predicted,
there may be an increase of full-service restaurants. This offers a more relaxed dining
experience for elders. Younger demographics and busy urban professionals may fuel the growth
of fast-food restaurants and cloud kitchens due to their convenience and speed. Due to a
popularity increase of working from home, there has been an increase in admiration and
reliance for takeaways and deliveries.
However, non-population related trends can prove influential for growth trajectory. An example is
fitness. Covid 19 was a horrific incident. However due to this pandemic, fitness seemed to grow
of more importance for humans. A study of 5,000 adults in UK 2021 showed that 80% people
wished to make substitutions to their life for the better. Thirty-nine percent of 6 million adults
aged 40 to 60 plan to lose weight, whilst 41% plan to exercise more. (Public Health England,
2021) The rise of social media can also be the reasoning behind the trend of exercise. The rise
of UK company GymShark on a worldwide level is a catalyst as well as popular fitness
influencers. Even the ascent of Youtube boxing with creators, such as KSI, who has been
making popular content. Seeing transformations like him, to be able to go the distance with
professional boxers can be viewed as incredibly influential. The continuous rise of sports with
stars such as Virat Kohli and many more are viewed as role models for children.
These are a multitude of reasons as to why fitness and taking care of health have continued to
evolve and become a rising trend. Restaurants may have to slowly incorporate this trend into
their establishment. Vegetarian dishes may have to increase in varieties. With more choice a
restaurant gives a customer the more likely they are to buy food. For quick service restaurants
soft drinks are complementary goods for the main dish. The availability of zero sugar drinks
such as Fanta Zero increasing and with more variety could be beneficial. According to the vice
president of commercial development at Coca Cola European Partners, Simon Harrison in 2021
said “Our popular Fanta Zero sugar range is worth over £68m, which has in part been fuelled by
the demand for our zero sugar flavoured variants.” This shows that zero sugar drinks popularity
continues to increase hence demand will gradually increase. There is a plethora of ways to
cook. A chicken sandwich in KFC Japan is 415 calories (Jeriene, November 19 2023). A KFC
Fillet Burger in UK is 455 calories (Nutracheck). Japan is already advanced in this perspective
of making their food healthier. United Kingdom should follow Japan in this ideology to grasp a
bigger demographic of audience. A mention of the calories on the menu as well could be a
positive change. It is simple but that and marketing health positive whys could be an effective
way towards adapting to the growing influence of fitness.

According to Wikipedia, the abstention of using animal products is known as veganism. This is a
major talking point in the industry as it continues to be a contentious subject. A figure who
seems to find himself entangled in these debates is Piers Morgan. Morgan had a vegan
protestor Orla Coghlan on his show Piers Morgan Uncensored to have a debate. "If a bee is an
animal, why are you slaughtering them?,,, I meet so many vegans who devour avocados and
almonds, And don't seem to realise that it involves the slaughter of billions of bees." (Piers
Morgan, 2022). Warwick University has banned meat and dairy and forcing students to go
vegan (Sky News Australia, 2023) Unfortunately the vegan movement have not escaped the
restaurant industry and just like these headlines being negative it is a familiar situation here. “I
am done with vegans, I am absolutely done done done with vegans” (John Mountain 2023) He
had to ban vegans in his restaurant in Perth after rowdy activists stormed his restaurant. Even if
this is in Australia, the power of social media makes a prediction of activists storming
restaurants in UK is not far off. Activists are making noise. The Animal Rebellion group had
sprayed white paint on the House of Parliament not too long ago. It is not all darkness for the
industry though. Mcdonald’s have items such as McPlant which are vegan. Quick service
restaurants having vegan items highlight that restaurants are adapting despite scrutiny.

In conclusion, the world is interlinked and after deep analysis connections tend to appear.
Similarly for the restaurant industry the shifts in population when it comes to age and nations
possess its upsides and downsides. The execution to adaptation is key. Trends such as fitness
also cause for a need to adjust. The restaurant industry in the next five years will turn the growth
trajectory to a direction which may not have been thought of five years ago and will continue to
evolve.

Bibliography:
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Public Health England (2021). Seven in 10 Adults Are Motivated to Get Healthier in 2021 Due to
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