MBTs0D0LOGY FOR SEISMIC SAFETY EVAUJATION FOR EARTH DAMS MK. Yegtant Over the past two decades significant developments have been ade in our understanding of the dynamic response of earth dans Analytical procedures that have been developed vary in their degrees of sophistication ranging from the simple application of Newton's second law to three-dimensional finite elenene analyses, Notwithstanding, the estimation of the likelihood of lure or reliable performance of an earth dam during the period of its Fusetioual Life remains co be a challenge to earthquake engineers, Seismic safety evaluation of an earth dan involves the identification and datermination of various paraneters that describe in the analytical procedure the seianic loads on the Gam and its resistance to these loads. In such a safety evaluation, there are many sources of uncertainty that have to be considered in order to make a realistic evaluation of the selsmle risk associaced with the dam. Uncertainties are present in the parameters that define the seismicity and geology of the region under invescisation and the characteristics of the site upon which che dam is or will be founded, In addition, there sre uncertainties in che paraneters that describe the strength of the earthen materials tised, the dynamic response of the dan yoed, and the safety criteria adopted in the investigation. Finally, there is uncertainty im the professional judgement that invariably plays a role in the different stages of the seismic safety evaluation ‘Typically, tn the current practice, @ deterministic approach is adopted in which conservative selections of parameters and sssumptions are uzde te account for the various uncertainties Teofesser anv No Chairman, Department of Civil Engineering, weastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA “381Involved in the selenie safety evaluation of @ dam, Gonorally, {neuch an investigation a safety criterion fs sdopted such as a ninim factor of safety or a Limiting level of permanent: dan Derormation or stress, that when satisfied the dam {s considered fe be cafe, Such an approach, when followed in the design of a new earth dam, my render the project econonically unfeasible Gus co the coupounding of conservatism. More seriously, in the Sclenic safety evaluation of an existing earth dam, application Gh the deterministic approach in vhich a general conservatism 1s Suopted may lead to the conclusion that most such existing dams srerimsafes whereas @ gore realistic evaluation of the seismic ikfety performed using reasonable assumptions and parameters and iccouneing for the associated uncertainties may indicate that the level of seismic tisk 1s acceptable to all parties concerned. ‘this paper describes the franework for a probabilistic approach to the seismic safety evaluation of earth dans. The methed {s based on the Antegration of the seismological and Geotechnical inputs and their associated uncertainties in a JOgieal and consistent manner to yield the likelihood of selemically induced danage to or failure of an earth dan. egrated Seismic Risk Analysis valuation of the sefemic risk of damage co or failure of facility involves input from two other anslyses hereafter referved te as Sstemic Hazard Analysis (Sis) and Seismic Performance Anelysis (SPA). Thus, the estimation of seismic tick involves the following three steps that are also described in Figure 1 Skep1. Seiemic Hazard Analysis considers the various acissiz sources tosether with the frequency and characteristics Sf cclomie excicerions that way be generated, and yields probabiliseic predictions of the occurrence of various seismic Racarcs chat may be defined in terms of groun4 motion parameters at the site of the facility Step_2._Scionle Performance Analysis considers the setsmic resiarance of tle facilicy using appropriate analytical Procedures, end provides probabilistic predictions of the Perforeence ef the feeility experiencing the varsous be Bescrited in the seismic hazard analysis, ds cep 2, Seismic Risk Analyeie In this step the results of the'eebgaie Tazard dnalyais and che Seismic Performance Analysts ine [ntepraced over all hazards co yield the overall risk of -385-lamage to or failure of the facility. Figure 2 desertbes che Intezration involved in the Integrated Seismic Risk Analysis. Such @ procedure can be applied for any type of facility. tn restareh reported herein, special develepnents were made in oth SHA and SPA char provide the necessary and appropriate input for the estimacion of the seismic risk for an earth dam. rhe framework upon which the specific developments vere aade is presoutes In igure , As show in Figure 3 the selected rosco to the estination of the seismic risk for an earch dam 5 besed on the uss ef matrices to display the outeoues from the three steps of the analysis Tho advantages of chis matrix approach over nore nathenstieally closec-form formulations that lead to the ucilization of a conpucer are: 1, Results from each analysis are displayed for scrutiny, consistency, and for general observations or conclusions that themselves are advancements in the state-of-the- art, For comple, danage probability matrices compiled From the Seismic Performance Analysis can be useful information that can indicate the adequacy of current donign practices in relation to expected damages for different levels of selemic excitation, 2. The integration of the results from Sefamic Hazara Analysis and Setsmic Performance Analysis, to obtain estimates of risk can be done in a simple manner wich che use of a calewlator, This conveniently allows repeated appiteation of the analysis for sensitivity purposes and for evaluation of the impace upon the relative risk, certain assumptions and design modifications considered 3. Allows easy identification of the parameters and factors that contribute more significantly to the risk and consequently requiring special attention in the investigation ety Although che methemseical formulation is simple for risk calculation, it permits the evaluation of the input used in the isk calewiation to be based on rigorous and sophisticated state-of-the-art analysis, Fer example, damage probabilictes can be computed enpirieally, cubjectively, employing simple analytical procedures or three-dinensional finite element analysis: aeApplication co Earth. fh veviow of current practice of the seismic analysis of earth dant indicates that for earth dans and especially those fon ioving of granular materials, pseudostatic analysis is no [eaner eommidersd ae a reliable approach. Instead, seismic cal ty eveluacion of earth dams are now being based on the Potenticl for the daa to experience pernanent deformations rlewnark propossd a simple sliding-block model for the calenlation oF permanert deformations using « rigid-plastic, for. -displacomen: relationship characterizing the sliding mass. Tn tacent years there bave been many developments of analytical proo.kires for calevlating permanent deformations which sre PRecviubly based on Nesmark's simple concept. Tt is evident, fron 4 review of these procedures that the characteristic of the Geleate excttatien playa an important role in the estimation of forminene leformations in earth dans. In addition to the pesk Eroud acceleration or displacenent, the nature of the time Hee Tecord including the frequency content and duration wilt Uetermine the magnitude of the accumlated permanent deformation. based on Newnark's nodel, simple analytical procedure for the caleulation of pernanent: deformations vas developed. The perencters that describe the seismic event in the deformation Beriveis Jmelude: the peak ground acceleration, the number of aguilalene uniform cycles, Neq, and the predominant period of fi notion. Using probability theories and the analytical procedure developed the probability of exceeding a specified sree sage permanent deformation can be calculated. Thus, damage foebsbilities calculated based on accumulated permanent Ecfecmacions depend upon not only the peak acceleration but also the number of equivalext cycles of application of the seismic ses Mence itis imp-rative that the results from the Seismic Hocata anelysis not only express the number of events causing ceccleration to exceed a certain Level but also provide the Giccritueion of these events with respect to the munber of cycles thet they vould cause rront probabilistic seismic hazard analysis procedures provide the number of events causing acceleration £0 exceod & Precified value "a," This total number of events nay consist of sree tieey oF magnitudes and hence have a varying number of eyiislent eyeles. The mathematical formulation used in a cau wational seismic hazard analysis procedure vas modified to (One the caloulatior of the distefbucion of the sagnitude oF verrec of cycles for cach level of acceleration considered. The -387-vosults from chis modified seismic hazard analysis can be expressed in wattix form as shoun in Figure 3 Ones cho SHA aatrix for a particular site and the SPA macrix for a specific esrth dam are filled in the anmusl nunber of events causing damege Level Dy can be calculated by ROO a cary, PUD LaAs aN) 20a, a8, Benefits of Seisule Risk Analysis for garth pans ‘The application of an Integrated Seismic Risk Analysis for earth slams can provide estimates of relative risks that van be useful in the design or safety decision analysis of an earth asm Also, a risk-based safety evaluation can help identity che importance and implications of various assuaptions, hypotheses aid criveria used in the design or safety evaluation process and avoids compounding of conservation # mechodology for estimating the seismic risk of damage to or failure of an earth dam ix presented, The procedure provides Framework for the evaluation of seismic risk Incorporating uncertainties associated with both the seismic hazard and the seismic performance of the dam experiencing these hazards Special developuents in vetsmic hazard and sefsmic performance malyses are described that relate to the seismic safety evaluation of earth dams knowLedgement This paper is based on a research effort to develop an Integrated Seismic Risk Analysis for Earth Dans, supported by the Wattonal Science Foundation under Grant Nusher DFR&4-121 This suppore ts gratefully acknowledged. The author also theviis hhis colleague Sugere Marciano and graduate studene Vahe chahranan for cheir contrfbutions fo this research progeam, ~388-Taunt SISAIWNY ¥SIE OWNSIS setouseing wowon punazo une 20 aBeuteg Jo Ataeaesd savauiniea uonow puncig Supenona jo Aaegoie SIsATNY ZONVARUOISA OINSIIS | L SISKTYNY GUYZ¥H INSIRS 389SISATWNY ¥StH -390-© aunoldFL By Ha FE SEAR THES SWE PROCEEDINGS OF INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON SEISMIC ZONATION DEC. 6—10, 1987 GUANGZHOU, CHINA Haas Eas ' SPONSORED BY STATE SEISMOLOGICAL BUREAU, PRC