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ANN-Based Prediction Model for Rutting Propensity of Asphalt Mixtures

Conference Paper · January 2013

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 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 ANN-Based Prediction Model for Rutting Propensity of Asphalt Mixtures

2
3
4
5
6 by
7
8
9
10
11 Mohammadreza Mirzahosseini*
12 Kansas State University
13 Department of Civil Engineering
14 Manhattan, KS 66506.
15 Tel. No. (785) 317-3914
16 Fax No. (785) 532-7717
17 E-mail:mhoseini@ksu.edu
18
19 Yacoub M. Najjar
20 Department of Civil Engineering
21 University of Mississippi
22 University, MS 38677.
23 Tel. No. (662) 915-7191
24 Fax No. (662) 915-5523
25 E-mail:ymnajjar@olemiss.edu
26
27 Amir HosseinAlavi
28 Iran University of Science and Technology
29 School of Civil Engineering
30 Tehran, Iran
31 Tel. No. +98–912–319-6287
32 E-mail:a.h.alavi.iust@gmail.com
33
34 Amir HosseinGandomi
35 The University of Akron
36 Department of Civil Engineering
37 Akron, OH 44325.
38 Tel. No. (234) 788-0619
39 Fax No. (330) 972-5162
40 E-mail:ag72@uakron.edu
41
42
43 Word Count: 7,386(5,136words for text plus 6 figures, and 3 tables)
44
45 * Corresponding Author
46
47 Offered for possible presentation at the 92ndannual meeting of Transportation Research
48 Board, National Research Council, January 13-17, 2013, Washington, D.C., and publication
49 in the Transportation Research Record
50
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 ABSTRACT
2 This paper investigates the applicability of artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of
3 the flow number of dense asphalt-aggregate mixtures. Percentages of coarse aggregate, filler,
4 bitumen, air voids, voids in mineral aggregate, and Marshall Quotient were employed as the
5 predictor variables. A comprehensive experimental database was used for the development of the
6 model. The statistical measures of coefficient of determination, coefficient of efficiency, root
7 mean squared error, and mean absolute error were used to evaluate the performance of the
8 model. Sensitivity and parametric analyses were conducted and discussed. The ANN model
9 accurately characterizes the flow number of asphalt mixtures resulting in a very good prediction
10 performance. The proposed model remarkably outperforms several existing prediction models
11 for the flow number of asphalt mixtures.
12
13 INTRODUCTION
14 An important consideration in the design of rut-resistant pavements is to monitor the rut
15 susceptibility of asphalt mixtures during mix design. The well-known Superpave mix design
16 method is entirely based on volumetric proportioning of the asphalt mixture. This method does
17 not include any direct test method to evaluate the permanent deformation resistance of mixtures.
18 The limitations of the Superpave design method were the source of the recent motivations for
19 establishing a simple performance test for the permanent deformation evaluation. The time to
20 tertiary flow failure is a very good indicator of the rutting resistance of a mixture (1). This can be
21 quantified via the flow number as measured in a repeated load permanent deformation test.
22 Dynamic creep test is one of the best tools for assessing the permanent deformation potential of
23 asphalt mixtures (2). The curve of accumulated strain against number of load cycles is the most
24 important output of the dynamic creep test. This curve includes primary, secondary and tertiary
25 zones. The three-stage permanent deformation behavior is a basic property of asphalt mixture.
26 During the first phase, the mixture volume decreases (densification) and accumulated strain
27 notably increases. During the secondary zone, the first mechanism of rutting is completed. Since
28 the first mechanism is completed and there is no other volume change, the tertiary zone can be
29 named as appearance of second mechanism of rutting. In this phase, shear deformation starts and
30 rutting increases again (3). According to Witczak et al. (4), the loading cycle number where the
31 tertiary deformation starts is called flow number.
32 Loading of pavements is not a continuous process. This allows the asphalt pavement a
33 period to recover some of the strain induced by the loading. Consequently, the flow number can
34 be regarded as an efficient parameter for analyzing the real field conditions. The flow number
35 provides an evaluation of the mixture’s resistance to permanent deformation by measuring the
36 shear deformation occurring under haversine loading (5). The dynamic creep test is sensitive to
37 both mixture formulation and test parameters such as binder content, void content, test loading
38 stress, pulse period and temperature. More, this test is costly and it is not always possible to
39 conduct it for determining the flow number. Therefore, developing a relationship between the
40 flow number values obtained from the dynamic creep test and parameters from mix design would
41 lead to considerable savings in construction cost and time.
42 Over the last decade, machine learning has attracted much attention in both academic and
43 empirical fields for tackling civil engineering problems. The machine learning systems are
44 powerful tools for design of computer programs. They automatically learn from experience and
45 extract various discriminators. Artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machines
46 (SVM) are the most widely used branches of machine learning. ANN and SVM have been
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 applied to a variety of civil engineering tasks (6-11). Recently, some research has been
2 conducted with the specific objective of applying ANN and SVM to the evaluation of the
3 performance characteristics of asphalt pavements (12-16).
4 This study presents an ANN approach to derive a new model for the prediction of the
5 flow number of dense asphalt mixtures. An experimental database covering a wide range of
6 aggregate gradation was used for the model development. To verify the validation of the model,
7 sensitivity and parametric analyses were conducted and discussed.
8
9 ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
10 ANN has emerged as a result of simulation of biological nervous system. The ANN method was
11 developed in the early 1940s by McCulloch and co-workers (17). ANN can be applied to a
12 variety of problems that do not have algorithmic solutions or problems with complex solutions.
13 Multilayer perceptron (MLP) network (18) is the most well-known class of ANN. MLPs have
14 feed-forward architectures. They are essentially capable of approximating any continuous
15 function to an arbitrary degree of accuracy (18). These networks are usually applied to perform
16 supervised learning tasks, which involve iterative training methods to adjust the connection
17 weights within the network. They are usually trained with back-propagation algorithm. Figure 1
18 shows a schematic representation of an MLP network. The MLP network consists of an input
19 layer, at least one hidden layer of neurons and an output layer. Each of these layers has several
20 processing units and each unit is fully interconnected with weighted connections to units in the
21 subsequent layer. Each layer contains a number of nodes. Every input is multiplied by the
22 interconnection weights of the nodes. Finally, the output (hj) is obtained by passing the sum of
23 the product through an activation function as follows:
 
24 h j  f   xi wij  b  (1)
 i 

25 where f () is activation function, xi is the activation of ith hidden layer node, wij is the weight of
26 the connection joining the jth neuron in a layer with the ith neuron in the previous layer, and b is
27 the bias for the neuron. For nonlinear problems, the sigmoid functions (Hyperbolic tangent
28 sigmoid or log-sigmoid) are commonly adopted as the activation function. Adjusting the
29 interconnections between layers will reduce the following error function (19,20):
1
30 𝐸 = 2 𝑛 𝑘 (𝑡𝑛𝑘 − ℎ𝑛𝑘 )2 (2)

31 where 𝑡𝑛𝑘 and ℎ𝑛𝑘 are respectively the calculated output and the actual output value, n is the
32 number of samples and k is the number of output nodes. Further details of MLPs can be found in
33 (18).
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

b
X1 1 Sigmoid Function
W1

X2 2 W2
∑ Output
…
…
…
… Sum Function Activation
Wn
Function
Xn n
1
2 FIGURE 1A schematic representation of an MLP neural network (11)
3
4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT
5 The internal factors affecting rutting can be divided into three basic categories: (1) aggregate
6 characteristics, (2) bitumen characteristics, and (3) asphalt mixture characteristics (21,22). The
7 physical and mineralogical properties of mineral aggregate have noticeable effects on quality and
8 characteristics of asphalt mixtures. One of the most important parameters of aggregates is
9 grading. Amount of coarse aggregate, fine aggregate and nominal maximum aggregate size have
10 remarkable influences on pavement rutting. Binder is one of the fundamental components of
11 asphalt mixtures and is used as a cohesive material to bond the aggregates. Rutting propensity of
12 the asphalt mixture is significantly affected by the stiffness of the binder (23). Optimum amount
13 of bitumen obtained from mix design methods is equal to the bitumen percent that results in
14 approximately 4 percent air void (24). Void in mineral aggregate is the total volume of voids
15 within the mass the compacted aggregate. It is the volume of the mixture air voids plus the
16 volume of the effective asphalt binder in the mixture. This parameter is important in the sense
17 that it allows room for enough asphalt binder to make a durable mixture plus enough room for air
18 voids to ensure a stable mixture (22). Stability of an asphalt pavement is its ability to resist
19 shoving and rutting under traffic. Flow is the ability of an asphalt pavement to adjust to gradual
20 settlements and movements in the subgrade without cracking. The flow is regarded as an
21 opposite property to the stability, determining the reversible behavior of the wearing course
22 under traffic loads and affecting plastic and elastic properties of the asphalt concrete (25,26). The
23 Marshall quotient is calculated as the ratio of stability to flow. This ratio is an indicator of the
24 mixture stiffness, resistance to shear stress, permanent deformation and hence rutting of the
25 bitumen concrete (26,27).
26 In order to provide accurate assessment of the rutting potential of asphalt mixture via the
27 machine learning techniques, the effects of the above-mentioned factors should be incorporated
28 into the model development. Consequently, the ANN-based formulation of the flow number (Fn)
29 was considered to beas follows:
 M
Log Fn   f  CP , FP , BP ,Va ,VMA, 
30  F  (3)
31 where,
32 CP (%): Percentage of coarse aggregates
33 FP (%): Percentage of filler
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 BP (%): Percentage of bitumen

2 Va (%): Percentage of air voids
3 VMA (%): Percentage of voids in mineral aggregate
4 M/F: Marshall quotient (Marshall stability (M) to flow (F) ratio)
5 They were included in the analysis on the basis of both a trial study and a literature
6 review (28-30).
7
8 Experimental Database
9 A comprehensive research study was conducted by NCHRP to develop a simple mechanical test
10 to supplement the Superpave volumetric method of mix design. It is reported that the dynamic
11 creep test has a very good correlation with measured rut depth and a high capability to estimate
12 the rutting potential of asphalt layers (2). On this basis, the results of several uniaxial dynamic
13 creep tests conducted by the authors (21) were used to develop the model. Out of the 270
14 samples constructed and tested, the final 118 flow number values were extracted. For some of
15 the cases where 3 samples were available, the average of the Fn values for those samples was
16 considered. The employed database includes the measurements of CP, FP, Va, VMA, BP, M/F,
17 and Fn. CP and FPrepresent the grain size distribution, BP is representative of the binder content;
18 and Va, VMA and M/F are the characteristics of the asphalt mixture. Va and VMA are actually
19 properties of aggregates in the mixture. Changes in the aggregates gradation or shape provide
20 significant changes in VMA (23). Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of the variables used
21 in this study.
22
23 Table 1 Descriptive statistics of the variables

Input Output
Parameter
CP (%) FP (%) BP (%) Va (%) VMA (%) M/F Fn
Mean 57.31 5.54 5.51 4.54 16.55 2.99 227
Standard Error 1.32 0.29 0.07 0.14 0.13 0.07 13.25
Standard Deviation 14.33 3.17 0.81 1.52 1.41 0.74 143.97
Minimum 33 1 4 1.71 13.20 0.61 22
Maximum 81 10 7 8.77 19.04 4.81 510
24
25 Data preprocessing
26 Overfitting is one of the essential problems in machine learning generalization. Overfitting
27 usually occurs if an algorithm is excessively trained. In this case, although the training error may
28 continue to decrease, the testing error increases rapidly. In other words, a learning algorithm is
29 called “overfit” if it has a good performance on the training data but a poor performance in
30 predicting new unseen data (31). A systematic strategy was considered to prevent overfitting and
31 to improve the generalization of the models (32). For this aim, the available data sets were
32 randomly divided into three subsets: 1) learning, 2) testing and 3) validation testing subsets. The
33 learning data were taken for the learning process of the ANN algorithm. The testing data sets
34 were employed to specify the generalization capability of the models for data that they did not
35 learn from (model selection). The learning and testing data were involved in the modeling
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 process and were categorized into one group called “training data”. The models with the best
2 performance on both of the learning and testing data sets were finally selected as the outcomes of
3 the runs. The validation data were used to measure the performance of the final model on data
4 that played no role in building the model. Different combinations of the learning, testing and
5 validation data sets were considered to derive a consistent data division. The selection strategy
6 was based on the consistency of the parameters in the training and testing data sets with regard to
7 some statistical parameters (e.g., maximum, minimum, mean, etc.). Of the 118 data sets, 91 data
8 vectors were taken for the training process (64 sets for learning and 27 sets for testing). The
9 remaining 27 data sets were used for the validation purpose.
10
11 Parameters for measuring performance
12 Correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of efficiency (R2), mean square error (MSE), and mean
13 absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. R, MSE and
14 MAE were calculated using the following relationships:
N  h  h  t  t 
R i  1 i  i 
2 2
 N  h  h   N  t  t 
15 i  1 i  i  1 i  (4)
16
n 2
  hi  ti 
MSE  i  1
17 n (5)
18
N
 hi  t i
MAE  i  1
19 N (6)
20
21 R2 was defined as follows (33):
F  F2
R2  1
22 F1 (7)
23
24 Where,
 
N
F1   hi  h
2

25 i 1 (8)
26
N
F2   ti  hi 
2

27 i 1 (9)
28 where hi and ti are respectively the actual and predicted outputs for the ith output. h and ti are,
29 respectively, the averages of the actual and predicted Fn, and N is the number of samples.
30
31 ANN-Based Prediction Model for the Flow Number of Asphalt Mixture
32 The optimal ANN model was selected after developing and controlling several models with
33 different combinations of the input parameters. For the development of the ANN models, the
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 TR-SEQ1 artificial neural network programme, developed by Professor Yacoub Najjar from
2 Kansas State University-USA (9), was used. This program provides the possibility of creating
3 verity of different networks and choosing the network with the best performance (34).The
4 program uses MLP architecture with back propagation feed forward algorithm for the training of
5 the network.
6 The performance of an ANN model mainly depends on the network architecture and
7 parameter settings. For traditional MLP, a single hidden layer network is sufficient to uniformly
8 approximate any continuous and nonlinear function according to a universal approximation
9 theorem, demonstrated concurrently by several researchers (11,18). Choice of the number of the
10 hidden layers, hidden nodes, learning rate, epochs and type of activation function plays an
11 important role in model construction. Hence, several MLP network models with different
12 settings for the mentioned characters were trained to reach the optimal configurations with
13 desired precision. Gradient descent (traingd) training algorithm was implemented for the training
14 of the MLP network. Also, log-sigmoid of form 1/(1 + e-x) was adopted as the transfer function
15 between the input-hidden and hidden-output layer. An important step for network training is the
16 data scaling. In the present study, the sigmoid functions (log-sigmoid) were adopted as the
17 transfer functions. The log-sigmoid function keeps the output to lie between 0 and 1. In this case,
18 normalizing the parameters to the range [0, 1] improves the learning speed. Therefore, both the
19 input and output data were normalized between 0 and 1 using the following equation:
x x
xn  i i ,min
xi ,max  xi ,min
20 (10)
21
22 where xn is the normalized value of input xi; and xi,min and xi,max denote the minimum and
23 maximum values of xi, respectively.
24 The model architecture that gave the best results for the formulation of Fnwas found to
25 contain:
26  One invariant input layer, with n = 6 (CP, FP, BP, Va, VMA, and M/F) arguments;
27  One invariant output layer with 1 node providing the value of Log (Fn).
28  One hidden layer having 14 (m = 14) nodes.
29 Figure 2 presents the architecture of the optimal ANN model for predicting Fn. The ANN
30 model was built with a learning rate of 0.05 and trained for 1100 iterations. A comparison of the
31 experimental and predicted Fnby the ANN model is shown in Figure 3.
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

CP

FP

BP
Log (Fn)

Va

VMA

M/F

1 Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer

2 FIGURE 2 The architecture of the optimal ANN model for predicting Fn
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

(a) (b)
700 700
R = 0.980 R = 0.973
600 R2 = 0.951 600 R2 = 0.945
MSE = 1005.655 MSE = 1077.304
Predicted Fn

Predicted Fn
500 MAE = 20.426 500 MAE = 23.932

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 100

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Experimental Fn Experimental Fn
1
(c)
700
R = 0.964
600 R2 = 0.903
MSE = 1878.760
Predicted Fn

500 MAE = 28.616

400

300

200

100

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Experimental Fn
2
3 FIGURE 3 Experimental versus predicted Log (Fn) values using the ANN model: (a)
4 Learning data, (b) testing data, and (c) validation data
5
6 VERIFICATION OF MODEL VALIDITY
7 Based on a rational hypothesis, Smith (35) suggested the following criteria for the judgement of
8 performance of a model:
9  If a model gives |R| > 0.8, a strong correlation exists between the predicted and measured
10 values.
11  If a model gives 0.2 < |R| < 0.8 a correlation exists between the predicted and measured
12 values.
13  If a model gives |R| < 0.2, a weak correlation exists between the predicted and measured
14 values.
15 In all cases, the error values (e.g., MSE and MAE) should be at the minimum. It can be
16 observed from Figure 3 that the ANN model with high R and R2, and low MSE and MAE values
17 predicts the target values with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The performance of the model
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 on the training and validation data suggests that it has both good predictive ability and
2 generalization performance.
3 Besides, new criteria recommended by Golbraikh and Tropsha (36) were checked for the
4 external validation of the ANN model on the validation data sets. It is suggested that at least one
5 slope of regression lines (k or k') through the origin should be close to 1. k is the slope of the
6 regression line in plot of actual (hi) against predicted (ti) values. k' is the slope of the regression
7 line in plot of ti against hi values (36). Also, the performance indexes of m and n should be lower
8 than 0.1. Recently, Roy and Roy (37) introduced a confirm indicator (Rm) of the external
9 predictability of models. For Rm> 0.5, the condition is satisfied. Either the squared correlation
10 coefficient (through the origin) between predicted and experimental values (Ro2), or the
11 coefficient between experimental and predicted values (Ro'2) should be close to R2, and to 1. The
12 considered validation criteria and the relevant results obtained by the models are presented in
13 Table 2. As it is seen, the derived model satisfies the required conditions. The validation phase
14 ensures the derived ANN model is strongly valid.
15
16 Table 2Statistical parameters of the ANN model for the external validation

Item Formula Condition ANN

1 R 0.8 < R 0.964

k

in 1 hi  ti 
2 0.85 <k< 1.15 1.094
h2
i
 n
k  i  1 i i

h t 
3 0.85 <k' < 1.15 0.895
t2
i
R 2  Ro 2
4 m │m│ < 0.1 -0.044
R2
R 2  Ro  2
5 n │n│ < 0.1 -0.032
R2
6 Rm  R 2  (1  R 2  Ro 2 ) 0.8 <Rm 0.741

Ro 2  1 

in1 ti  hi
o
 2

where

in1 ti  ti 
2

, hio  k  ti
0.969

Ro 2  1 
 n
i 1 h  t 
i
o 2
i

 n
i 1 h  h 
i i
2

, tio  k   hi
0.958

17
18 For more verification, the predictions made by the proposed ANN model on the entire
19 database were compared with those provided by the gene expression programming (GEP) (21),
20 multi expression programming (MEP) (29), and hybrid GP and simulated annealing (GP/SA)
21 (28) models. The GEP, MEP and GP/SA models were developed upon the same database
22 employed in this study. Table 3 presents a comparison of performance of different models for the
23 entire database (118 sets). Furthermore, the predictor variables considered for the development
24 of these models are given in this table. It was not possible to compare the performance of the
25 models separately on the learning, testing and validation data sets because the data divisions for
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 each of these models were different. As it is seen, the proposed ANN model significantly
2 outperforms the existing models. Another advantage of the ANN model over the GEP, MEP and
3 GP/SA models is that it is formulated in terms of most of the parameters required for
4 determining an optimal mix design, i.e., CP, FP, BP, Va, VMA, and M/F. This is while the
5 previously published models include only four predictor variables (CP/SP (or FP), Va (or BP),
6 VMA, and M/F). This limits their practicality for specifying a desired mix design. As an
7 example, the GP/SA model proposed by Alavi et al. (28) uses FP, BP, VMA, and M/F as the
8 predictor variables. A disadvantage of such model is that it does not provide detailed information
9 about the percentage of coarse (CP) and fine (SP) aggregate contents as it only needs FP for
10 estimating Fn. It is, therefore, the researcher’s responsibility to determine optimal values for the
11 CP and SP or for their ratio (CP/SP). The same is true for the models that use only one of the
12 CP/SP, BP orVa parameters as the predictor variables.
13
14 Table 3 Overall performances of different models for the prediction of Fn
Performance measure
Model Input parameters
R R2 MSE MAE
ANN (This study) CP, FP, BP, Va, VMA, M/F 0.974 0.941 1221.827 23.102
GEP (21) CP/SP*, Va, VMA, M/F 0.891 0.777 4573.738 48.218
MEP (29) FP, BP, VMA, M/F 0.956 0.896 2137.507 32.509
GP/SA (28) FP, BP, VMA, M/F 0.948 0.897 2121.615 33.842
*Percentage of fine aggregate
15
16 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
17 The sensitivity analysis has been conducted at two stages. The first stage of the sensitivity
18 analysis discussed above revealed that all of the considered parameters (CP, FP, BP, V a, VMA,
19 and M/F) are important to determine Fn. At the second stage of the sensitivity analysis conducted
20 herein, the importance of the finally selected predictor variables was investigated in details. For
21 this aim, a simple procedure was followed. On the basis of this procedure, the sensitivity (S) of
22 Fn to each input parameter was determined using the following equations:
Ni
Si  n
 100
N
i 1
i
23 (11)
24 And
25
N i  f max x i   f min x i , i = 1, …, n
26 (12)
27
28 in which,
29 Ni: Difference between fmax(xi)) andfmin(xi)
30 fmax(xi) and fmin(xi): Maximum and minimum of the predicted output by the proposed model over
31 the ith input domain, respectively, while the other variables are kept constant at the average
32 values of their entire data sets.
33 xi: ith input
34 n: Number of inputs
35 As shown in Figure 4, the results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that FP and CP are
36 the most influencing variables on the rutting potential of asphalt mixtures. This observation is an
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 expected case and goes arm in arm with the earlier findings in the literature. Sousa et al. (22)
2 stated that among the influential mixture properties, aggregate characteristics are particularly
3 important contributors to permanent deformation resistance. Further, Elliott (38) showed that the
4 fine-coarse and coarse-fine gradation variations had the greatest impact on mixture properties. It
5 is worth mentioning that although the contributions of the other variables are not as high as FP
6 and CP, removing each of them notably reduces the accuracy of the optimal model.
7
75

60
Sensitivity (%)

45

30

15

8 CP FP BP Va VMA M/F
9 FIGURE 4 Contributions of the predictor variables in the ANN model
10
11 PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS
12 For further verification of the model, a parametric analysis was performed in this study. Figure 5
13 presents the tendency of the Fn predictions by the ANN model to the variations of the influencing
14 parameters.
15 As can be seen in Figures 5 (a) and (b), Fn continuously increases with increasing CP and
16 FP. This is an expected case from pavement engineering viewpoint. The coarse aggregates can
17 be regarded as the skeleton of the structure of asphalt mixtures which support loads through
18 stone-on-stone contact. Therefore, rutting is decreased by increasing CP. It is notable that the
19 increment rate of the ANN-predicted Fn declines for the CP values higher than 70% (Figure 5
20 (a)). It is well-known that increase in the filler content will stiffen the total asphalt mixture,
21 leading to higher Marshall Stability values and better resistance to permanent deformation. This
22 is mainly due to the fact that the air void between the aggregates is filled by the filler and,
23 consequently, a well-graded grading is obtained. The filler provides the load distributing
24 characteristics of the mixture.
25 The results of the parametric analysis shown in Figure 5 (c) indicate that Fn decreases
26 with increasing Va and VMA. As shown in Figure 5 (c), Fn continuously increases with
27 increasing VMA up to a peak about 16% and thereafter it starts decreasing. The results for Va
28 and VMA are generally expected cases. The specimens with higher Va become less dense. In
29 other words, increases in Va lead to less aggregate particles interlock and internal friction in the
30 mixture. The result is less shear resistance for the asphalt mixture, which increases the
31 deformation of the mixture caused by loading (24). This is completely verified by Figure 5 (c).
32 As VMA values increase, the specimens become less resistant to applied loads. This can be
33 attributed to the increase of the bitumen percent in the sample. The results of several studies
34 indicate that resistance against permanent deformation increases as Va and VMA decrease (22-
35 24).
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 The results for the ANN model show that Fn initially decreases when M/F increases up to
2 about 3 and thereafter it starts decreasing. M/F is the ratio of stability to flow and represents the
3 ratio of load to deformation. This ratio may be used to give an indication of mixture stiffness
4 while specifying a minimum flow value that may prevent mixtures susceptible to embrittlement.
5 Based on the previous studies (24,26,27), a higher M/F value indicates a high stiffness mixture
6 with a greater ability to spread the applied load. Therefore, the pavements being more resistant to
7 permanent deformation are obtained. However, there is no clear consensus in the literature about
8 the effect of M/F increment on the rutting resistance of asphalt mixtures. Based on a study on the
9 rutting performance of asphalt mixtures containing polymer modifiers, Tayfur et al. (39) showed
10 that M/F may not be a good indicator of measuring permanent deformation.
11 The Fn variations with the bitumen percent can be observed from Figures 5(a)-(e). It is
12 well-known that Fn initially increases when BP increases to a certain point (optimum binder
13 content) and then it starts decreasing (22). The optimum binder content reflects the condition of
14 optimum packing of the aggregate together with the optimum cohesion. This is the condition for
15 the maximum stability which is usually given attention at the expense of the flexibility (22).
16 Previous research in simulation of asphalt samples showed that when BP increases over the
17 optimum content, an increase in rut depth can be seen (22). The reason is that plasticity of such
18 mixtures increases at higher temperature and the mixtures are more prone to rutting (40). For the
19 ANN model, the trends are not completely distinct in Figures 5 (a)-(e). Therefore, variation of
20 the Fn values predicted the ANN model with BP is separately presented in Figure 6.
21 Interestingly, it can be observed from this figure that the results obtained by the ANN model for
22 BP are in acceptable agreement with the expected behavior. For this model, Fn continuously
23 increases with increasing BP up to a peak about 5.7% (optimum binder content) and thereafter it
24 starts decreasing.
25
(a) 350
BP = 4%
BP = 5.5%
300 BP = 7%

250
Fn

200

150

100
33 43 53 63 73
26 CP (%)

(b) 500
BP = 4%
BP = 5.5%
400 BP = 7%

300
Fn

200

100

0
1 3 5 7 9
27 FP (%)
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

(c) 290
270
250
230
Fn

210
190 BP = 4%
BP = 5.5%
170 BP = 7%
150
2 4 6 8
1 Va (%)

(d) 280
260
240
220
200
Fn

180
160
BP = 4%
140 BP = 5.5%
120 BP = 7%
100
13 14 15 16 17 18
2 VMA (%)

(e) 300

260

220
Fn

180

140 BP = 4%
BP = 5.5%
BP = 7%
100
0.6 1.6 2.6 3.6
3 M/F
4 FIGURE 5 Parametric analysis of Fn in the ANN model
5
265

261

257
Fn

253

249

245
3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5
6 BP (%)
7 FIGURE 6 Variations of Fn with BP in the ANN model
8
9
 Mirzahosseini et. al.

1 CONCLUSIONS
2 This research aimed at developing a new model for the prediction of the Fn of asphalt-aggregate
3 mixtures utilizing ANN. Fn was formulated in terms of several factors affecting the mixture
4 resistance to permanent deformation. The best model was constructed using CP, FP, BP, Va,
5 VMA, and M/F. The generalization capability of the proposed model was checked using a part of
6 the database beyond the training data domain. The validation phases confirmed the efficiency of
7 the model for its future application to the evaluation of the rutting potential. As expected, the
8 results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that FP and CP are more effective to explain the
9 variations of Fn compared with the other mixture properties. The values of the performance
10 indices indicate that the ANN model notably outperform different solutions presented in the
11 literature. The ANN model seems to be more practical than the existing models because it
12 includes the effects of most of the parameters required for establishing an optimal mix design. A
13 major distinction of the ANN approach is that the flow number can accurately be estimated from
14 the mixture properties without carrying out sophisticated laboratory tests with UTM or similar
15 testing equipment.
16
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