Chapter 11

Probability

probability (chance or likelihood of an event happening)

Ranges between 0 to 1 (0 being impossible, 1 being certain)

A Experimental Probability
Number of trials (number of repeated experiments)
Outcomes (possible results of trial experiment)
Frequency (number of times outcome observed)
Relative frequency (frequency/total outcomes)

B Two-way Tables
Tables comparing two category variables
ex:
IB A Levels AP

male 25 12 45

female 32 9 53

C Sample Space and Events

Sample space U
Event (set of outcomes with property)

Chapter 2 (venn diagram):

-Sample space as U
-Outcomes as elements
-Events as subsets
-complementary event (only 1 event must occur)

Alternatives to illustrate:
-2d grid
-tree diagram

D Theoretical Probability
>ex: rolling a dice

number of A outcomes n( A)
P( A)= =
number of sample space outcome n (U )
P( A)+ P( A ’)=1
E Making Predictions Using Probability
number of time event occurs
experimental probability=relative frequency ( )
number of trials
number of time event occurs=experimental probability × number of trials

F The Addition Law of Probability

Chapter 2:
-both A and B = A ∩ B
-either A or B = A ∪ B

P( A ∪ B)=P( A)+ P( B)−P( A ∩ B)

If mutually exclusive, P( A ∪ B)=P( A)+ P( B)

G Independent Events
Independent (event does not affect the occurence of other)
P( A ∩ B)=P( A)× P(B)
P( A ∩ B ∩C)=P( A )× P (B)× P(C )

H Dependent Events
Dependent (one event affects another)
Not independent = dependent
P( A ∩ B)=P( A)× P(B , given A occured )

I Conditional Probability
Conditional probability (probability of A given B occurred)
n (A ∩B) P( A ∩ B)
P( A∨B)= =
n(B) P(B)

J Formal Definition of Independence [A]

P( A∨B)=P( A∨B ')=P (A )
P(B∨ A)=P(B∨ A ')=P (B)
P( A ∩ B)=P( A)× P(B)

K Bayes’ Theorem [AA]

P( A ∩ B)
Since P( A∨B)=
P( B)
And P( A ∩ B)=P(B∨ A) P( A),

P(B∨A )P( A)
We get: P( A∨B)= (Bayes Theorem)
P(B)
 P(B∨ A) P( A)
Alternative form: P( A∨B)=
P(B∨A )P( A)+ P(B∨A ' )P( A ')