Abstract

The world's most important task is to enhance energy generation from renewable sources
while decreasing total dependency on power generated from fossil fuels. There is need of
proper planning of managing energy or power generation from renewable sources to reduce
the unnecessary wastage of energy generated from these resources. Solar energy has
substantial importance among these sources as they can contribute much in generation of
the energy using PV (Photovoltaic) system. Solar energy is a valuable complement to
conventional energy sources. However, photovoltaic power generation (PVPG) is very
weather sensitive and so fluctuates substantially. Thus, precise forecasting is necessary so
that use of the solar energy can be managed accordingly. PVPG high precision forecasting
is the foundation of power production, transmission, and distribution, assuring energy
system stability and dependability. We provide in this paper a deep learning-based solution
for PVPG prediction that is precise. In this research, we employ a long short-term memory
(LSTM) network to solve a regression issue in a sequential database, incorporate PV
domain knowledge, and produce a Long short - term memory (LSTM) to forecast the
PVPGs. An hour ahead forecasting of power output is accomplished on a yearly basis in
this project using real data from the year 2016. We used the LSTM model to forecast using
inputs solar radiation, ambient temperature, PV module temperature, wind speed, and
actual power output. These inputs are used for the three different types of thin-film,
monocrystalline, and polycrystalline PV systems. It tries to address the drawbacks of
contemporary machine learning algorithms, which are only deployed on massive volumes
of data and hence readily yield inaccurate predictions. Solar generation fluctuation can
therefore be more efficiently compensated for using LSTM. LSTM is used to provide
accurate forecasts while simultaneously ensuring energy sustainability. In order to
demonstrate that our suggested model, multivariate LSTM, is more effective than others,
we are also comparing our model to others by developing them, such as ANN and SVM.
Aside from all of the readings, we are concentrating on LSTM as a great strategy for good,
effective, and efficient forecasting. This may obviously result in savings on investments
required to deliver the required generation capacity using fossil fuel-based power plants, as
well as a reduction in carbon emissions which is one of the major challenges the world is
facing today.
Chapt er 1

Introduction

Renewable energy sources are increasingly taking precedence over conventional energy
sources. Conventional sources have a finite lifespan that is reducing day by day.
Furthermore, these finite sources are the source of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases
(GHG). Another problem limiting the usage of these sources is their rising costs and
demand throughout the world. On the other hand, Energy demand can be handled using
renewable energy sources, which are natural resources also known as flow resources and
are more sustainable than fossils or nuclear fuels: they are almost limitless, and their usage
typically includes less health risks and far lower emissions of greenhouse gases and other
pollutants.

These natural sources have the potential to generate environmentally friendly

electricity at a cheap operating cost. Solar energy, wind energy, hydropower including tidal
energy, biofuel, and more forms are included in renewable sources. The globe is dealing
with rising prices and, most importantly, rising global warming. These natural resources
provide energy sustainability since they do not emit carbon dioxide like conventional
sources. However, everything requires appropriate operation in order to complete the task.
Solar energy is of substantial importance and one of the energy sources with the greatest
potential for use in homes, businesses, and industries. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology
use PV cells to transform solar radiation into electricity. Renewable energy sources,
particularly photovoltaic (PV) energy, have grown in popularity in recent years due to their
abundance, inexhaustibility, clean energy, and environmental friendliness as we can see in
the figure. Renewable energy sources have the drawback as they are climate-dependent.
Solar energy is a valuable supplement to conventional sources of energy. However,
photovoltaic power generation (PVPG) is very weather sensitive and so fluctuates
substantially. The researchers have proposed many models to save the energy production
by the solar plants. After the world is moving highly towards the smart technologies, the
data generated using smart technologies can be saved and further used for the forecasting.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the development of computer systems that can perform
 tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech
recognition, decision-making, and language translation. AI encompasses a range of
techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and
computer vision. AI involves the use of algorithms and statistical models to analyze and
interpret data and make predictions or decisions based on that data.
Different types of AI exist, including Rule-based systems, Machine learning, and
Deep learning. It has the potential to transform many industries and fields, making them
more efficient, productive, and innovative. Recently, deep learning (DL) approaches have
emerged as powerful machine learning tools that enable complicated pattern recognition
and regression analysis, and prediction applications.
RNN is a type of neural network that exploits the sequential nature of input data.
RNNs are used to model time-dependent data, and they give good results in the time series
data, which have proven successful in several application domains. Long Short-Term
Memory Networks (LSTM) are a type of RNN that is able to deal with remembering
information for much longer periods of time. We applied the LSTM model to accurately
forecast short-term photovoltaic solar power. We make a comparison of it with other
models too as ANN, SVR, and NFIS, and conclude that LSTM is a more efficient model to
forecast the power output. The effectiveness of this approach is tested based on the power
output data collected. Using optimizers, we are minimizing the MSE, RMSE, and MAE
and also finding the correlation factor R 2 between the actual values and the predicted values
of the power output. Similarly, we are using the data of the PV systems of the three types
including polycrystalline, monocrystalline, and thin film for the power output forecasting.
We are using the data of the year 2016 of a solar plant for these systems in our model as
input which includes the factors like ambient temperature, solar radiation, PV module
temperature, and actual power output, and will see its results in tabular form and graphs.

1.1 Motivation
The speed at which technology is developing nowadays makes life easier and more
convenient. In addition to the benefits, technological innovations are significant energy
consumers. Global warming is a significant issue that requires the creation of alternative,
environmentally acceptable energy sources in order to fulfil energy demand. We understood
that using renewable energy sources may lessen this load. Two of the most important
renewable resources are solar and wind energy. Our initiative focuses on solar energy, whose
tendency of use is expanding worldwide as shown in the graph showing solar energy
capacity and annual usage from 2009 to 2022.
 Solar PV Global Capacity and Annual Addition 2009-2022 1.1 TW
1200
1000
Gigawatts 800
600
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Years

Capacity after annual addition Previous Capacity

The amount of energy lost by renewable sources is likewise considerable, and several efforts
are undertaken to lower it. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, which is a lot
superior method for achieving accurate projected outcomes to an efficient level which is
being used by our team to forecast the power output of different types of PV cells using past
real time data. Thus, LSTM is a more effective technique for the forecasting purposes.

1.2 Problem Statement

Following are the important points of the problem statement given below:

 PV systems are utilized often because they are a common renewable energy source
and because their use and significance are growing every day as they ensure the
environment with less GHG emissions. Moreover, it can also help in meeting the
market challenges due to the usage of conventional energy.

 Issue in Solar energy production is the volatility intermittent of PV system power

generation due to mainly weather conditions. These weather changes greatly affect
energy production and its usage produced by renewable sources, especially solar
energy. As we know that the solar energy is highly dependent on the weather
conditions thus it needs efficient forecasting for the energy management from these
sources and ultimately the wastage of that energy can be controlled.

 We need a deep learning model to accurately forecast the power output of PV

modules in the short term which will help in overcoming the issue of the wastage
of the energy produced by the solar plant ensuring an environmentally friendly
system through this methodology.

 There is still a gap in achieving accuracy in forecasting and multi-objective error

 reduction. Many approaches are made to achieve that level of accuracy in
minimizing error using machine learning algorithms.

 LSTM forecasting helps us in stabilizing our system if any outage occurs. We will
see how this model is better than others. LSTM is a type of RNN in which different
optimizers will be used to get a reliable and approximately correct output which
will ultimately minimize the errors. Comparison of it with other models will prove
its high efficiency in forecasting.
1.3 Objectives
Following are the objectives of our project are given:
 Statistical approaches based on the data-driven formulation to forecast solar time
series by using historically measured data
 Machine learning techniques, in particular, deep learning approaches based on
artificial neural network
 Physical models based on numerical weather prediction and satellite images

 Hybrid approaches which are a combination of the above methods.

1.4 Chapter Outline

This chapter includes a detailed introduction of our project. It gives the knowledge of the
whole project which signifies the importance of solar energy and the forecasting of the solar
power output using the DL models which includes the techniques: LSTM, ANN, SVR and
NFIS. Our focus is on LSTM and to prove that it is more efficient technique for forecasting.
This chapter overall covers the introduction of the project, the motivation because of which
we choose this project which is the advancing technology, the problem statement on which
we have to work, the objectives we have to meet, the information described in this chapter
and in the last the outline of whole thesis which includes many chapters.
1.5 Thesis Outline
This thesis addresses every element relevant to our effort. It includes an abstract of the entire
project we completed as well as chapters with an in-depth introduction and problem
statement, literature reviews we found by reading various papers and journals, the
methodology we used to complete our project, and results presented in tabular and graphical
form. The final chapter contains the conclusion of the entire work, which denotes its
significance both currently and in the future.
Chapt er 2

Literature Review and Problem Definition

Natural resources for the generation of energy include renewable sources, also referred to
as flow sources. The effect of using renewable resources is crucial, as is their significance.
These serve as substitutes for conventional energy sources (from renewable ppr ieee). In
order to satisfy energy needs and close the energy supply-demand gap, the substantial
energy consumption of the modern period has shifted the focus of global technology
towards renewable sources (from solar ener pred from mater). Since renewable energy is
stable and long-lasting, it has been used extensively throughout the world (from compa.
Study od phys. models). The following graph illustrates the rising number of nations with
various renewable energy strategies (Maryland).

Number of Countries with Renewable Energy Policies,

Renewable 2020 Global Status Report
160

140

120
Number of Countries

100

80

60

40

20

0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Years

65 Countries (Transort Regulatory incentives/mandates)

145 Countries (Power Regulatory incentives/mandates)
22 Countries (Heating and cooling regulatory incentives/mandates)

The world is facing the serious challenges which are the energy shortage and global
warming. Thus, the sustainable development has become the major need of the hour and
will be remain of same importance in the future. No doubt that the renewable resources
generation capacity is increased or improved by using the smart grid technologies. The use
of renewable resources faces many obstacles as it can cause the voltage fluctuations which
lowers the power quality. Moreover, Climate changes are the major challenges in the use of
these energy sources but because of the smart grid technologies the capacity of the grid
connected renewable resources can be improved much. Optimization, scheduling,
technologies have been extensively applied in renewable energy generation such as wind,
solar, PV systems and distributed generation (from assig 2 sg).
Solar PV is regarded as an established technology with significant expenditures and
widespread adoption around the world (Maryland). It is the energy supply that is expanding
the quickest. (SOL Ener pred). The high sun energy potential of these plants has led to their
widespread use in solar PV power systems. PV systems are frequently used because they
are a popular sustainable energy source and because their importance and use are
increasing daily due to the fact that they protect the environment by producing fewer
greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, they can assist in addressing market issues brought
on by the use of conventional energy. A short historical overview of photovoltaics (PV) is
available in the figure.

PV Effect Observed Diverse Applications

(1939 Alexander Becquerel (1993 Grid Supported CA
1905 Albert Einstein) 1994 NREL Solar Facility
1999 Worldwide 1000 MW)

Cell Development Market Growth

(2006 use of polysilicon
2007 CA Solar initiative)

Solar PV in Space Tech Innovations

(2006 Breaks 40 efficiency
2007 Thin films and CGIS)
Small-scale use
1970 Railroads Manufacturing
1997 Solar Research (2010 Worldwide 40 GW
Institute and price drop in 2011)

Residential use Low-Cost Solar

(1978 Solar Calculators (2019 Worldwide 627 GW)
1980s Remote Homes)

Figure 1: Through History, Timeline of PV

One of the potential forms of renewable energy is solar energy. But it has some flaws, or
perhaps we should say that they weigh it down. Because of the changing weather, there are
doubts in the use of solar energy, and one of the major drawbacks is the unstable power
production characteristics. It's crucial to understand this drawback as well as the patterns of
power production and how they vary over time (IEEE). Power imbalance and a substantial
decrease in economic benefit are the end outcomes (forecasting of solar). For these risks to
be reduced, efficient forecasting is required. Solar energy forecasting might be used to
 overcome some of these challenges (IEEE 1). The spread of energy is equalized and
adjusted as a result of precise solar power forecasting (itee). There are any forecasting
techniques vproposed in the literature review of different journals and articles. Here in the
following figure, forecasting techniques for photo voltaic power generation are given as

Categories of PVPG Forecasting Techniques

Physical Models Statistical Model Machine Learning Hybrid Model

Model

ARMA Group ANN SARIMA+SVM GRBNF+EPSO

Regression SVM ANN+AnEn SWT+LSTM

Exponential Smoothing
ELM SVM+WT+PSO GAN+CNN

DNN NARX+FFNN Others

Forecasting techniques for photo voltaic power generation are given as

i. Physical Models
ii. Statistical Models
iii. Machine Learning Based Models
iv. Hybrid Models
Using various techniques, several solutions have been offered over the previous few
decades for accurately forecasting the power output of the PV. Because solar energy is
permeating the conventional electric grid and the whole energy market, solar forecasting is
becoming more and more prominent. However, as it grows, it has become more difficult to
conserve the energy it produces because of the swings brought on by weather changes.
Consequently, accurate forecasting is needed to prevent this loss. Numerous optimization
techniques and models are suggested for effective forecasting. (From ap2 24). Deep
learning (DL) approaches have emerged as powerful machine learning tools that enable
complicated pattern recognition and regression analysis and prediction applications. A
Deep Learning Neural Network based model is used to forecast the solar power output of a
solar plant utilizing a variety of environmental characteristics that may be used to adhere
the spinning reserve stress to the grid (From ss). In recent years, the statistically-based
machine learning (ML) model has been used in a number of scientific and engineering
domains, including PVPG forecasting. Data preparation, algorithm training, creation of the
ML model, and forecast creation and improvement are the steps that follow (energy 21
cites).
Many Researchers proposed different models for the forecasting. We will see their work in
this literature review.
The Leven-berg Marquardt and Bayesian regularization back-propagation algorithms are
used in the solar forecasting model to predict short-term solar irradiance and other
meteorological parameters. A basic nonlinear autoregressive with external input
NARXfeedforward Network is also used.(J1)
In this study of a research paper compares the performance of deep learning techniques
(the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the multilayer perceptron neural
network (MLP)) and empirical models (Perrin de Brichambaut, Liu and Jordan, Eufrat,
Ghouard, Capderou, and the ambient temperature distribution model) in forecasting PV
power based on errors percentages. According to the simulation results, artificial
intelligence topologies beat physical models. The ANFIS model also performs better than
the MLP network in terms of accuracy. (ieee 3)
In order to operate the underlying electrical system, cost effectively, it is required to
increase the accuracy of power projections. This study intends to increase the precision of
short-term PV power forecasts. First, data from measured power systems, data from
satellites, and data from numerical weather forecast systems are used. To obtain the
sequence feature information, the data sets from various sources are preprocessed and
combined with machine learning algorithms. Support vector machine based on data fusion
(SVM-DF) is specifically suggested to be used as the primary regression model. By
spotting patterns in the input-to-output data mapping, the SVM-DF, an extension of the
support vector machine, can develop regression functions in continuous space. The
capacity to create non-linear relationships between the input and output data sets gives
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) one edge over natural neural networks. The SVM-DF
technique acquires a more accurate dataset for predicting PV power compared to a
traditional ANN model. With access to PV measurements and weather forecasts, SVM-DF
can make predictions of a better caliber. Research on NWP weather characteristics is
conducted to assess their appropriateness as input features for PV power forecasting in
order to investigate additional potential improvements in prediction quality. The findings
support the value of data fusion techniques that employ spatial and temporal station
correlations. The SVM-DF model outperformed the ANN model, according to the results.
(ieee 2)
Authors in [It 11] proposed a hybrid model by combining the back propagation neural
network (BPNN) and genetic algorithm for predicting the energy production from
photovoltaic system. The historic output data, metrology data of delivery day and historical
metrology data were considered as input parameters. A mapping function was defined to
identify the relation between input and output data. The proposed optimized BPNN with
initial thresholds and weights was performed for accurate prediction of output power. The
analysis results identified significant improvement in speed and accuracy against existing
power prediction models. (itee)
The article of another author suggests a physics-constrained LSTM (PC-LSTM) to forecast
the hourly day-ahead PVPG while taking into account the particular domain expertise of
PV. It seeks to address the drawback of current machine learning algorithms, which are
applied based only on huge amounts of data, readily generating predictions that are
irrational. PV records from the real world are used to assess the models' viability and
efficacy. Based on a two-stage composite methodology, sensitivity analysis is carried out
for the choosing of input feature variables. The outcomes show that the suggested PC-
LSTM model has better predicting abilities than the conventional LSTM model. (energy)
In order to address the issues with the existing approaches, a one-day-ahead short-term
power production forecasting model based on correlation analysis and combination
algorithms for distributed PV systems is suggested in this article. First, the fundamentals of
a distributed PV system are presented, and the primary influences on a distributed PV
system's electricity production are identified.
Second, Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient (SROCC) research is used to identify
the influences that have a greater association with PV production over a range of
timescales. The ELM-LSTM model is created based on the multimodel binary extreme
learning machine (ELM) submodel and the single-model multivariate long short-term
memory (LSTM) submodel. .According to a case study analysis using actual data, the
ELM-LSTM forecasting model presented in this article has a better level of accuracy.
(hindawi)

Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) are a type of RNN. Over the last decades,
many studies have been dedicated to forecasting problems in several application domains.
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been successfully used in machine learning
problems. RNNs are used to model time-dependent data, and they give good results in the
time series data, which have proven successful in several applications longer periods of
time.
Optimizer in the training phase of the LSTM model, optimization algorithms are used for
minimizing its error rate. The performance of an optimizer is generally characterized by
convergence speed and generalization (the efficiency of the model on new datasets). The
commonly used optimizers include Adaptive Moment Estimation (Adam) or Stochastic
Gradient Descent. There is still a gap in achieving accuracy in forecasting and multi-
objective error reduction. Many approaches are made to achieve that level of accuracy in
minimizing error using machine learning algorithms. We used the LSTM algorithm to
predict short-term photovoltaic solar electricity with accuracy. We compare it to other
models like ANN, SVR, and NFIS and come to the conclusion that LSTM is a more
effective model for predicting electricity production. The electricity production data
gathered is used to evaluate the efficacy of this strategy. We are minimizing the MSE,
RMSE, and MAE while also calculating the correlation factor R2 between the power
output's real and expected values. Similar to this, for the forecasting of electricity
production, we are using data from PV systems of the three types—polycrystalline,
monocrystalline, and thin film. Nearly all contemporary electronic devices employ
monocrystalline silicon, sometimes referred to as single-crystal silicon and abbreviated
mono-c-Si or mono-Si. It is comprised of silicon, which possesses a crystal lattice that
continues uninterrupted and without grain boundaries to the solid's edges. In addition to
pure silicon, mono-Si may also be doped with substances like boron or phosphorus to
produce p- or n-type semiconductors, respectively. Metallurgical grade silicon is converted
into polysilicon via a technique known as the Siemens process, which involves chemical
purification. Crystallites, which are tiny crystals, give polysilicon its distinctive metal-flake
look. Multi-crystalline refers to crystals with a diameter more than one milli-meter, even
though the terms polysilicon and multi-silicon are sometimes used interchangeably. It is
not surprising that multi-crystalline solar cells are the most popular in the rapidly
expanding PV sector. Thin-film sheets may be used to generate energy in more locations
that are inaccessible to traditional solar cells, including as curved surfaces of buildings or
automobiles, or even on clothes to power portable gadgets. Such applications could assist
in achieving a sustainable energy future. In comparison to monocrystalline and
polycrystalline solar cell types, thin-film solar panels are less efficient and have lower
power capabilities. Depending on the kind of PV material used in the cells, the Thin-Film
system's efficiency varies, but in general, they often have efficiencies between 7% and
18%. (From sample thesis and website)
LSTM forecasting helps us in stabilizing our system if any outage occurs. We will see how
this model is better than others. LSTM is a type of RNN in which different optimizers will
be used to get a reliable and approximately correct output which will ultimately minimize
the errors. Comparison of it with other models will prove its high efficiency in forecasting.
In order to address the issues with the existing approaches, a one-day-ahead short-term
power production forecasting model based on correlation analysis and combination
algorithms for distributed PV systems is suggested in this article. We also used different
types of Solar Cells like polycrystalline, monocrystalline and thin film. We also included
the weather parameters to forecast power output. First, the fundamentals of a distributed
PV system are presented, and the primary influences on a distributed PV system's
electricity production are identified. Thus we follow the methodology for different models
and prove that out multivariate LSTM model is efficient than others.

Problem Definition

PV systems are utilized often because they are a common renewable energy source and
because their use and significance are growing every day as they ensure the environment
with less GHG emissions moreover it can also help in meeting the market challenges due to
usage of conventional energy. Issue in Solar energy production is the volatility intermittent
of PV system power generation due to mainly weather conditions. These weather changes
greatly affect the energy production and its usage produced by the renewable sources
especially the solar energy. We need a deep learning model to accurately forecast the
power output of PV modules in a short-term which will help in overcoming the issue of the
wastage of the energy produced by the solar plant ensuring the environmentally friendly
system through this methodology. There is still a gap in achieving accuracy in forecasting
and multi objective error reduction. Many approaches are made to achieve that level of
accuracy in minimizing the error using machine learning algorithms. LSTM forecasting
help us in stabilizing our system if any outage occurs. We will see how this model is better
than others. LSTM is a type of RNN in which different optimizers will be used to get the
reliable and approximately correct output which will ultimately minimize the errors.
Our goal is to demonstrate that LSTM is a more effective predicting method. The project
introduction, the reason for choosing this project because of advanced technology—the
issue statement we must solve, and the goals we must achieve are all covered in this
chapter.
Multivariate LSTM is a more efficient model for PV Power output Forecasting as
compared to other models.
Discuss what has been done by others to solve the problem? What solutions are already
present in the literature? what are their disadvantages? And how the proposed
solution/project was different from them? or describe why you worked on this project in
light of the literature review?
Further, in the light of the literature review, define your problem in detail. A problem
definition is a comprehensive overview of the questions that will be addressed in selected
area of research. It outlines the description of the issue(s), includes a vision, suggests the
method(s) used to solve the problem, and provides a hypothesis