BRAZIL MACROECO: A model for

the exploration of scenarios until

2050

Carine de Almeida Vieira

Introduction
• In the 1970s, Meadows et al. published a model in which discussions on environmental issues were given
centrality, making use of an unconventional methodology among economists - Dynamic Systems. Limits to
Growth – Club of Rome;

• However, with the worsening of climate change and the great economic crisis of 2008, this theme together
with EE has been gaining more and more prominence. The need to formalize an Ecological Macroeconomics
has become increasingly necessary;

• Ecological Macroeconomics, employed mainly in the works of Peter Victor and Tim Jackson, makes use of
Dynamic Systems Modelling (DSM) as one of the tools to explore various scenarios and the relationship
between the economy and the environment.

• The model is intended to explore different scenarios, trying to find out if it is possible, in the long term, for
Brazil to improve its HDI without significantly impacting or increasing pressure on the environment, as
measured by its EF
Development versus Environmental Impact
 Dynamic Systems
Simplified example of the demographic issue in dynamic systems.

Modelling in dynamic systems allows the

construction of a dynamic, interconnected
system, in which variables influence each other
simultaneously. This happens without the need
to assume that some of the variables would
remain constant, the ceterus paribus rule, for the
identification of a certain behavior. Despite this,
it is important to highlight that these models,
built using this methodology, are not intended to
make predictions, but rather to help understand
behavior through exploring alternative
scenarios.
Source: Elaborated by the author in Stella Architect.
Methodological Aspects
• Stella Architect Software

• The equations and/or mathematical relationships that make up the proposed model were mostly taken from
the literature review of several studies published in journals;

• the starting year is 2015, i.e. all starting values are from the respective year;

• Among the exogenous variables is population growth, which is available by age groups until 2050. (Produced
by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)).

• As Production Sector -:> Coob douglas equation;

• Like any other model, it is an abstraction based on assumptions that are maintained over time.
Overview of the model's structure.
Methodological Aspects
Public Policies – Employment

• If the unemployment rate reached rates higher than 15%, the average number of hours worked would
decrease to 1,450 hours per year, which would theoretically allow for the opening of new vacancies and
greater employment opportunities, and consequently, would lead to a reduction in the unemployment rate.

• The average hours worked by each Brazilian annually in 2015 was 1,709.48 hours (Feenstra, Inklaar, Timmer,
2015). In 2015, Brazil was ranked 21st in terms of hours worked, with an annual workload higher than
European countries - such as Switzerland, Finland, Germany, France, Norway, United Kingdom, among
others - and other Latin American neighbours - such as Argentina and Uruguay.
Results
Scenarios
Development with Moderate
Description of the Business As Usual Development with Growth
Economic Growth'
key variables

Growth 3% annual growth rate. 3% annual growth rate. 2.5% annual growth rate.

Education Follows the trend over time, Extra investments of around BR$ Extra investments of around BR$
starting year 2015. 65.9 billion. 65.9 billion.

Health Follows the trend over time, Extra investments of around BR$ Extra investments of around BR$
starting year 2015. 65.9 billion. 65.9 billion.
 Results
Figure 19- Unemployment rate.
Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (2015 – 2050).
Results
Human Development Index between 2015 and 2050. Ecological Footprint between 2015 and 2050.
Conclusions
• The model showed that despite attempts to reduce the EF and emphasis on sectors such as education and
health, even in the most optimistic scenario, economic growth, in current terms, implies a significant
increase in EF;

• The importance of more efficient processes and the use of raw materials is evident, as well as the more
intensive use of clean energy to slow down climate change, reinforcing the need for efforts to improve
recycling. There is a need to rethink the production system, from start to finish, recycling as much as
possible and making better use of raw materials and natural resources. However, the question that arises
here is whether this would be enough to mitigate the effects of climate change.

• Late development meant that the periphery used the centre as a model of development, society, habits and
even consumption. The periphery grew in the image and likeness of the centre, mainly in terms of
organization. However, this image was distorted and served the centres, in the form, among others, of the
sale of cheap resources and, as it can be clearly stated today, providing environmental services without
remuneration;
Conclusions
• What “MacroEco” demonstrates and analyses is that, for Brazil, the current patterns of social and
international relations if maintained and continue to provide economic growth, will mean that there will an
increase in pressures on the environment. Even in a scenario with moderate growth, with an economic
growth rate of 2.45% annually, the EF could reach a level of 4.36 global hectares per capita, in 2050 - a 60%
increase in the EF;

• In this sense, it would be important to ask, "What kind of development are middle-income/peripheral
countries looking for?"
Carine de Almeida Vieira – Federal University of ABC

carine.a.vieira@gmail.com