Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Probability
Notes

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Introduction:

Probability: probability measures how much chance is there for my expected

result to happen.

Probability = (no. Of favorable outcome)/(total no. Of outcomes)

Example: Let there be a basket with 3 balls: Red, Green, Blue. If I want to pick a
Red ball,
we can calculate the probability of picking a red ball.

Total number of possibilities when we pick a ball from the basket = 3 ( The ball
we pick can be Red, Green or blue)
Total number of favorable possibility i.e. possibility to get a red ball = 1
Therefore, Probability of getting a red ball, P(R) = 1/ 3

Sample space: set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is

called Sample space. It is denoted by S.

Sample point: each element of the sample space is called the sample point.
Example: for Tossing a coin, the sample space is s={HEAD,TAIL} and and the
element in sample space namely head, or tail, each of them can be called as
a sample point

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Event: it is the set of favorable outcome.

Example: if you throw a coin and if you are looking for head, then head is
the favorable outcome.

Mutually Exclusive events: two events are said to be mutually exclusive if

there is no common element between them.

Exhaustive events: the given events are Exhaustive if when I take the
elements in t
hose events forms the given sample space.
Conditional Probability:

Given a condition and you have to find the probability

Example: when I throw a dice, what is the probability that the outcome is
3 given that the outcome is odd.

The answer is 1/3 as the odd numbers are 1, 3 and 5. So we need

the probability of getting the number 3 out of the numbers 1,3,5. The chance
is one out of three so The probability is 1/3.
∴if number is odd, then the probability that it is 3 is = P(3|number is odd) = 1/3

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Note:But P(3) = 1/6 If there is no condition. As the probability of getting a

single number named 3, out of total 6 numbers namely 1,2,3,4,5,6
is 1/6
Conditional Probability Definition:
Probability of event E is called the conditional probability of F given that E has
already occurred, and it's defined by P(F|E).
Formula for conditional probability
P(F|E) = P(F∩E) / P(E)
Conditional Probability Problems:

Example:
In a survey in a class it was found that the probability of a student watching
Examfear videos is 0.8. and the probability that a student is both topper and
also watches Examfear videos is 0.792. what is the probability that a student is
a topper if he watches Examfear videos?

Solution:
Let E denotes the event that a person watches Examfear videos
Let F denotes the event that a person is topper . Then,
P(E) =The probability that a person watches Examfear videos =0.8
P(E∩F)=probability that one is both topper and also watches Examfear videos =

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

0.792
and P(F|E)= the probability that a person is a topper if he watches Examfear
videos=?
then according to Formula for conditional probability
P(F|E) = P(F∩E)/ P(E)
= 0.792/0.8
= 0.99
∴ The probability that a person is a topper if he watches Learnohub videos is
0.99
Properties of conditional probability:
• P(S|F) = 1
• P(F|F) = 1
• P((A∪B)|F) = P(A|F) + P(B|F) – P((A∩B)|F)
• P(E'|F) = 1- P(E|F)
Example: Evaluate P(A ∪ B), if 2P(A) = P(B) = 5/13 and P(A|B) =2/5
Solution: ∵ 2P(A) = P(B) = 5/13
=> P(B) = 5/13 and P(A) = 1/2 x P(B) = 1/2 × 5/13 = 5/26
Now the formula of conditional probability is P(A|B) = P( A∩B)/ P(B)
∴ 2/ 5 = P( A∩B) /P(B) [Since it was given in question that P(A|B)=2/5 ]
=> P(A∩B) = 2/5 X P(B
= 2/5 × 5/13
= 2/13
So, P(A∩B)= 2/13 , but we need to find P(A ∪ B)
Now is there any formula relating P(A ∪ B) and P(A∩B) ?
Yes , the formula is P(A ∪ B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Now you know values of P(A)= 5/ 26 , P(B)= 5/13 and P(A∩B)= 2/13.

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

So substitute these values in the formula, you will get value of P(A∪B).
That is P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P( A∩B)
=> P(A∪B)= 5/26 + 5/13 - 2/13
=> P(A∪B)= (5+10−4 )/26
=> P(A∪B)=11/26
∴ The value of P(A∪B) is 11/26

Example: Mother, father and son line up at random for a family picture
E : son on one end, F : father in middle , what is the probability that the son is
on one end given that the father is in middle?

Solution:
let Mother be denoted with M, Father be denoted with F and Son be denoted
with S
If the sample space for all the possible ways of arranging them is denoted by S
Then the possible elements in S are, S = {MFS, MSF, FMS, FSM, SMF, SFM}
Now E denotes son on one end as given in question so
A={MFS, FMS, SMF, SFM}
and F denoted Father in middle as given in question , so B={MFS, SFM}
Since the common elements between A and B are MFS and SFM ∴
A∩B ={MFS, SFM}

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Now, P(E∩F) = probability of getting two elements of A∩B I.e; MFS and SFM
out of the total 6 elements MFS, MSF, FMS, FSM, SMF, SFM.
= 2/6 = 1/3
and P(F)= probability of getting two elements of B i.e; MFS and SFM out of the
total 6 elements MFS, MSF, FMS, FSM, SMF, SFM.
= 2/6 = 1/3
∴ P(E|F) = P(E∩F) /P(F)
= (1/3) / (1/3)
=1
∴The probability that the son is on one end given that the father is in middle is
1.

Example: If A and B are events such that P(A|B) = P(B|A), then

(A)A ⊂ B but A ≠ B
(B)A = B
(C)A ∩ B = Φ
(D)P(A) = P(B)
Solution:
Given in question that P(A|B) = P(B|A)
But we know P(A|B) = P( A∩B) /P(B)
and P(B|A) = P( A∩B)/ P(A)
since P(A|B) = P(B|A)
=> P( A∩B)/ P(B) = P( A∩B)/ P(A)
=> P(A) = P(B)
Thus the correct option is (D).

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Multiplication Theorem on Probability:

Let E and F be two events associated with a sample space of an experiment.
Then
P(E ∩ F) = P(E) P(F|E), P(E) ≠ 0
= P(F) P(E|F), P(F) ≠ 0

If E, F and G are three events associated with a sample space, then

P(E∩F∩G) = P(E) P(F|E) P(G|E∩F)

Example: In a survey in a class, the probability for a person to watch learnohub

videos is 0.8 and the probability for a person to be a topper, if given that he
watches Learnohub videos is 0.99. find the probability for a person to be both
topper and watches learnohub videos.

Solution:
let Event E denotes the event that a person watches Learnohub videos
let Event F denotes the event that a person is topper
then P(E) = the probability that a person watches Learnohub videos =0.8
and P(F|E)= the probability that a person is a topper if he watches Learnohub
videos=0.99
then P (E ∩ F)= the probability that a person is both topper and also watches

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Learnohub videos then according to Multiplication Theorem on probability

P (E ∩ F) = P (E) P (F | E)
= 0.8 x 0.99
= 0.792
∴ The probability that a person is both topper and also watches Learnohub
videos = 0.792
Independent Events:
Let E and F be two events associated with a sample space S. If the probability
of occurrence of one of them is not affected by the occurrence of the other,
then we say that the two events are independent. Thus, two events E and F
will be independent, if

(a) P(F | E) = P(F), provided P (E) ≠ 0

(b) P(E | F) = P(E), provided P (F) ≠ 0
Using the multiplication theorem on probability, we have
(c) P(E ∩ F) = P(E) P(F)
Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent if all the
following conditions hold:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)
P(A ∩ C) = P(A) P(C)
P(B ∩ C) = P(B) P(C)
and P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)

Example: If you throw two coins, then probability of getting head or tail
in second coin is independent of probability of getting head or tail in first coin.

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Example: Let A and B be independent events with P(A)=0.3 and P(B) = 0.4.
Find
(i) P(A ∩ B)
(ii) P(A ∪ B)
(iii) P(A|B)
(iv) P(B|A)
Solution:
(i) we have to find the value of P(A ∩ B) and they gave P(A) =0.3 and P(B) = 0.4.
given A and B are independent events.
We know that if A and B are independent events then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)
=>P(A ∩ B) = 0.3×0.4 = 0.12

(ii)we have to find the value of P(A ∪ B)

the formula for P(A ∪ B) is P (A ∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P( A∩B)
=> P(A ∪ B)=0.3+0.4-0.12 = 0.58

(iii) P(A|B)=?
the formula for P(A|B) is P(A|B)= P( A∩B)/ P(B)
=> P(A|B)= 0.12/ 0.4 = 0.3

(iv) P(B|A)=?
the formula for P(B|A) is P(B|A)= P( A∩B)/ P(A)
=> P(B|A)= 0.12/0.3 = 0.4

Example:If A and B are two events such that P(A)=1/4 ,P(B)=1/2 , ,P(A∩B)=1/8
find P(not A and not B).

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Solution:
we know that P(not A and not B)=P(A'∩B')
But we also know that A'∩B'=(A∪B)' => P(A'∩B')=P((A∪B))'
∴P(not A and not B)=P(A'∩B')
=P((A∪B))'
=1-P(A∪B) ( ∵ P(A)' = 1-P(A) )
=1- (P(A)+P(B)−P( A∩B)) (∵ P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P( A∩B) )
=1- ( 1/4 + 1/2 - 1/8 )
=1- 5/8
=3/8

Bayes' Theorem:
If E1, E2,..., En are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated
with a sample space, and A is any event of non zero probability, then

Example: In a survey in a classroom it was found that chance of a

person becoming a topper is 10% . if a person is a topper, there is a 99%
chance that he watches Learnohub videos. One who is not a topper there is 1%
chance of watching Learnohub videos. Then, what is the Probability for one to
be a Topper , given if he watches Learnohub videos?
Solution:
Let “A person to be a Topper” is Event A and “To watch Learnohub videos”
is Event B
Given P(A)=0.1 = probability for a person to be a Topper.

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

So P(A')= 1-P(A)=1-0.1=0.9=probability for a person to be not a Topper

Given P(B|A)=0.99= probability that a person watches Learnohub videos, if
he is a topper,
so P(B'|A)=1-P(B|A)=1-0.99=0.01=probability that a person not watches
Learnohub videos, if he is a topper
Given P(B|A')=0.01=probability that a person watches Learnohub videos , if he
is not a topper
so P(B'|A')=1-0.01=0.99=probability that a person not watches Learnohub
videos , if he is not a topper

Therefore according to Bayes' Theorem, Probability for one to be a Topper , if

he watches Learnohub videos is

= (0.1x0.99)/ {( (0.1x0.99)+(0.01x0.9))}
= 0.9909

∴if one watches Examfear videos , for him there is 99.09% chance to
become topper.
Example: A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2
red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball
is drawn from the bag which is found to be red. Find the probability that
the ball is drawn from the first bag.

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Solution:
Let E1= the event of selecting first bag.
E2=the event of selecting second bag.
A = The event of getting red ball.
Since there is equal chance of selecting first bag or selecting second bag,
P(E1)=P(E2)= 1/2

now P(A|E1)=P(Drawing a red ball from first bag )= 4/8

and P(A|E2)=P(Drawing a red ball from second bag )= 2/8 =1/4

probability that ball is drawn from the first bag given that the ball drawn is red
is P(E1|A)

Example: Two groups are competing for the position on the Board of
directors of a corporation. The probabilities that the first and the second
groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if the first group wins,
the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

corresponding probability is 0.3 if the second group wins. Find the probability
that the new product introduced was by the second group.
Solution:
Let E1= event that the first group wins the competition
E2=event that the second group wins the competition
A = event of introducing a new product.
Then,
P(E1) = Probability that the first group wins the competition = 0.6
P(E2) = Probability that the second group wins the competition = 0.4
P(A|E1)=Probability of introducing new product if the first group wins =0.7
P(A|E2)=Probability of introducing new product if the second group wins =0.3
The probability that the new product is introduced by the second group
is given by

Random Variables and its probability distributions:

A random variable is a real valued function whose domain is the sample
space of a random experiment.
The probability distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers

where Pi > 0, i=1 to n and P1+P2+P3+ …..... +Pn =1

Example: Suppose that a coin is tossed twice so that the sample space is S =

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

{HH,HT,TH,TT}. Let X represent the number of heads that can come up. So with
each sample point we can associate a number for X so for HH the value of X is
2 as in HH there are 2 heads, for HT the value of X is 1 as there is only one head
in HT. similarly for TH, X=1 and for TT value of X = 0 as there are no heads in TT.

So in the sample space S = {HH,HT,TH,TT} assuming that the coin is fair,

P(HH)= ¼ , P(HT)= ¼ , P(TH)= ¼ , P(TT)= ¼
therefore P(X=0) = P(TT) = ¼
P(X=1) = P(HT ∪ TH) = P(HT) + P(TH) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
P(X=2) = P(HH) = ¼
Thus the table formed is shown below:

Example: A coin is biased so that the head is 3 times as likely to occur as tail. If
the coin is tossed twice, find the probability distribution of number of tails.
Solution:
Let the probability of getting a tail in the biased coin be x.
∴ P (T) = x
⇒ P (H) = 3x
For a biased coin, P (T) + P (H) = 1
⇒ x+3x=1
⇒4x=1
⇒x=1/4
∴P (T)= 1/4 and P(H)= 3/4

When the coin is tossed twice, the sample space is {HH, TT, HT, TH}.

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Let X be the random variable representing the number of tails.

∴ P (X = 0) = P (no tail) = P (H) × P (H)= 3/4 ×3/4
= 9/ 16

P (X = 1) = P (one tail) = P (HT) + P (TH) = 3/4 ×1/4 +1/4 ×3 /4

= 3/16 + 3/16
=3/8

P (X = 2) = P (two tails) = P (TT)= 1/4 ×1/4 = 1/16

Therefore, the required probability distribution is as follows.

Mean and Variance of a Random variable:

Let X be a random variable assuming values x1, x2,...., xn with probabilities p1,
p2, ..., pn, respectively such that pi ≥ 0,

Mean of X, denoted by μ [or expected value of X denoted by E (X)] is

defined as:

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

and variance denoted by σ2 , is defined as

Standard deviation of the random variable X is defined as

Let us take the above table

Now mean is

= X1P1+X2P2+X3P3
= (0X¼ ) + (1 X ½)+ (2X ¼)
=0+½+½
=1

Now Variance = σx2 = E(X2)-(E(X))2

so to find Variance let us find E(X2) and (E(X))2

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

=0+½+1
= 3/2
= 1.5

and (E(X))2 = 12=1

∴ Var(X)= E(X2)-(E(X))2 = 1.5-1=0.5
now standard deviation of X = √(variance (X ))
= √0.5
≈ 0.707

Example: In a meeting, 70% of the members favour and 30% oppose a

certain proposal. A member is selected at random and we take X = 0 if he
opposed,
and X = 1 if he is in favour. Find E(X) and Var(X).
Solution:
It is given that P(X = 0) = 30% = 30/100 = 0.3
P(X=1)=70%= 70/100 = 0.7
Therefore, the probability distribution is as follows.

x 0 1

P(x) 0.3 0.7

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Then, Mean= E(X) =

= 0×0.3+1×0.7
=0.7

= 02×0.3+12×0.7 =0.7

Now,
∴ Var(X)= E(X2)-(E(X))2
= 0.7−(0.7)2
= 0.7 − 0.49
= 0.21

Example: The mean of the numbers obtained on throwing a dice having

written 1 on three faces, 2 on two faces and 5 on one face is
(A) 1
(B) 2
(C) 5
(D) 8/3
Solution:
Let X be the random variable representing a number on the dice.
The total number of observations is six.
∴P(X=1)= 3/6 = 1/2
P(X=2)= 2/6 = 1/3

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

P(X=5)= 1/6
∴ The probability distribution is as follows.

X 1 2 5

P(X) 1/2 1/3 1/6

Now, Mean=E(X)

=1×1/2 +2×1/3 +5×1/6

= 1/2 +2/3 +5/6
= 12/6
=2
∴ The correct option is B.

Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Distribution:

Bernoulli Trials:
Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials, if they satisfy the
following
conditions:
(i) There should be a finite number of trials
(ii) The trials should be independent
(iii) Each trial has exactly two outcomes: success or failure
(iv) The probability of success(or failure) remains the same in each trial.

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Example: A tossed coin shows a ‘head’ or ‘tail’. If the occurrence of head is

considered as success, then the occurrence of tail is a failure .so, if we consider
tossing a coin two times as Bernoulli trials, because
(i)There are finite number of trials that is 2
(ii)tossing a coin second time is completely independent of the result of first
time tossing
(iii)each trial has only two outcomes namely either head or tail and
(iv)The probability of getting head or tail remains the same in each trial.

Binomial Distribution:
A random variable X taking values 0, 1, 2, ..., n is said to have a
binomial distribution
with parameters n and p, if its probability distribution is given by
P (X = r) = ncr pr qn–r,
where q = 1 – p and r = 0, 1, 2, ..., n.

Example: If a coin is tossed 10 times, find the probability of exactly 5 heads.

Solution: let X denote the number of heads.
So X has the binomial distribution with n = 10 an p = ½
∴ P(X = x) = nCx qn-x px , x = 1,2,3....,n
∴ P(X = x) = 10cx(1/2)10-x(1/2)x = 10cx(1/2)10.
so P(X = 6) = 10c5(1/2)10= (10 !)/ (5 !×5!) ×( 1/210) = 63/ 256

Example: A bag consists of 10 balls each marked with one of the digits 0 to 9. If
four balls are drawn successively with replacement from the bag, what is the
probability that none is marked with the digit 0?

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Solution:
Let X denote the number of balls marked with the digit 0 among the 4
balls drawn.
Since the balls are drawn with replacement, the trials are Bernoulli trials.
X has a binomial distribution with n = 4 and P= 1/10
∴ Q= 1-P =1− 1/10 = 9/10
∴ P(X = x) = nCx qn-x px , x = 1,2,3....,n
= 4Cx ( 9/10 )n−x( 1/10 )x
P (none marked with 0) = P (X = 0)
= 4C0 ( 9/10 )4 ( 1/10 )0
= 1×( 9/10)4
= ( 9/10 )4

Example: Find the probability of getting 5 exactly twice in 7 throws of a dice.

Solution:
The repeated tossing of a dice are Bernoulli trials. Let X represent the number
of times of getting 5 in 7 throws of the dice.
Probability of getting 5 in a single throw of the dice is P=16
∴Q=1-P= 1− 1/6 = 5/6

www.learnohub.com
Class 12 Mathematics | Probability | Notes

Clearly, X has the probability distribution with n = 7 and P=16

∴P(X = x) = nCx qn-x px
= 7Cx (5/6)7−x (1/6)x

P (getting 5 exactly twice) = P(X = 2)

=7C2 (5/6)5 (1/6)2
= 21×(5/6)5× 1/36
= 7 /12 ×(5/6)5

****************

www.learnohub.com