11.

2 Wave Prediction

Reliable information on wind waves is needed in various important coastal and sea
activities. These include:

a. Design and execution of coastal and ocean development;

b. Coastal zone planning and management;
c. Harbor planning, design, construction and management;
d. Coastal erosion control;
e. Fishery developments and fishing operations;
f. Tourism and recreation;
g. Protection of special coastal and marine areas;
h. Wave forecasting;
i. Navigation;
j. Design and construction of sea vessels;
k. Wave energy development; and
l.National defense planning and operations.

The wave information required by the above activities is either of statistical nature, derived
from wave data covering a sufficiently long period of time (i.e. wave climate), or of daily
predictive type, obtained by routine wave forecasting. The former type of data is needed
for planning and design purposes, whereas the later type is required for all daily coastal
and sea operations such as shipping, sailing and execution of coastal constructions.

The measurement of wind waves is a difficult and costly process. It has a rather short
history even for most of the rich countries. Therefore, prior to design of a coastal work
coastal engineers have to estimate the wave characteristics (i.e. H and T) from wind data.

Winds for wave prediction are normally obtained either from direct observations over the
fetch, by projection of values over the fetch from observations over land, or by estimates
based on weather maps.
1. Winds over sea water: Elevation, air-sea temperatures, horizontal temperature
gradients.
2. Winds over land: Major topographic features, elevation, sea-land adjustment,
synoptic weather charts, anemometer.

135
11.3 Wind Wave Prediction

To estimate the wave characteristics from the past wind data is called wave hindcasting. If
the winds, which are expected to occur in future, are estimated first, and these data are
used to obtain the wave characteristics, then the procedure is called the wave forecasting.
The available wave prediction (either hind casting or forecasting) methods may be
classified into two classes. These are:

11.3.1 Empirical Methods

a) Graphs or equations, which facilitate the computations of sea, state parameters

(significant wave height and period). A commonly used graphical method is the Sverdrup-
Munk-Bretschneider (SMB) method.

b) Methods, which assume a model for wave energy spectrum, and computes the values of
spectral parameters for a specific storm and then facilitate the computation of sea state
parameters. The most commonly used wave forecasting method in deep water is the
Pierson-Moskowitz (PM) (1964) method.

More recent wave prediction method implemented by SPM (1984), is based on the work of
Hasselman et. al.1973 (Fig.11.5). Dimensionless plots for wave growth are given in
nomograms. The parameters in nomograms are the fetch, F(km), the duration, t(hours),
wind stress factor UA (m/s) which is related to wind speed by;

UA=0.71 U1.23 where U (10 m. above the sea level) and UA are in m/s

From the monograms sea state parameters are predicted.

In Fig.11.5, fetch is given in km, UA in m/sec and duration t is in hours. For a given case;
using F, UA and t values H1/3 (m) and T1/3 (sec) are obtained from the monogram.

As an example, for a given UA=10m/sec, minimum fetch length (km) and minimum
duration (hours) necessary for FAS condition can be obtained from the monogram
(Fig.11.5) by intersecting the horizontal UA line with the maximum condition line ,fully
arisen sea (FAS).

136
137
Figure 11.5
 UA = 10 m/sec
FFAS = 235 km and tFAS = 16 hours

which gives

H1/3 = 2.5 m and T1/3 = 8.4 sec

These values of H1/3 and T1/3 are the maximum possible values that can be obtained for ;
UA = 10 m/sec for FAS condition.

For UA = 10m/sec case;

• if actual fetch length is

Factual = 40 km (Factual < FFAS) and
tactual = 3 hrs (tactual < tFAS)
then from the monogram
H1/3 = 0.7 m and T1/3 = 3.6 sec DURATION LIMITED

• if actual fetch length is

Factual = 40 km (Factual < FFAS) and
tactual = 10 hrs (tactual < tFAS)
then from the monogram
H1/3 = 1.0 m and T1/3 = 4.6 sec FETCH LIMITED

• if actual fetch length is

Factual = 500 km (Factual > FFAS) and
tactual = 3 hrs (tactual < tFAS)
then from the monogram
H1/3 = 0.7 m and T1/3 = 3.6 sec DURATION LIMITED

• if actual fetch length is

Factual = 40 km (Factual < FFAS) and
tactual = 20 hrs (tactual > tFAS)
then from the monogram
H1/3 = 1.0 m and T1/3 = 4.6 sec FETCH LIMITED

138
The wave hindcasting model developed in Coastal and Harbor Engineering Laboratory at
METU which uses PM spectrum. The hind cast program, which provides reasonable
estimates of wave characteristics, has been frequently used in wave climate studies for a
number of harbor projects along Turkish coast to determine the design wave
characteristics.

For the wind wave prediction the required input data are the dimensions of fetch area, and
the timely variation of the spatially averaged wind speed over the fetch area during the
duration of storm. The average wind speed over a fetch area is information which is
difficult to obtain accurately. One alternative is to use the winds recorded by the coastal
meteorological stations. For the wave computations the recorded wind speeds at coastal
stations must be converted to the speeds which simultaneously occurred over the sea by
empirical conversion methods.

Second alternative source is the synoptic maps. The use of synoptic maps suffers from two
important drawbacks. Firstly, the accuracy in computing the geostrophic wind speed and
then converting it to surface wind speed. Secondly, such maps indicate only the storms
with relatively high intensities. A third alternative is the use of numerical wind models,
which are implemented at the developed meteorological organizations such as the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF).

11.3.2 Numerical Methods

The numerical models compute the growth (or decay) and propagation of component
waves (from which the random wind wave field is assumed to be composed). The concept
of "energy conservation" is usually utilized in such models. Within these models, the
physical processes of wave generation, propagation, dissipation, and interaction are
simulated to a certain practical degree of accuracy.
The earliest attempts along this line, started during early sixties producing what is now
called "first generation models". The complicated physical processes, within this group of
models, are simply neglected (or highly under-estimated).

Second generation models" developed during seventies were planned to overcome the
shortcomings of the first generation models. This group of models imposes some

139
restrictions on the shape of the wave spectrum which makes the results to be "artificial"
especially during complicated storms (Hasselmann et al.,1976)·

During the eighties, "third generation models" emerged to simulate wind waves
development with almost no restriction on the shape of the wave spectrum. This is being
done by modelling all important physical processes producing a more natural wind wave
models (WAMDI Group,1988; and Abdalla and Özhan,1994).

Third generation models usually need huge amount of computations. This maybe a cause
to prevent interested people, like engineers, from using such models for several practical
applications.

More detailed input data are required for this class of models. Usually a mesh covering the
whole basin is needed to be defined with the water depth specified at each grid point. The
wind speed and direction are needed to be specified at each grid point also. Same sources
of wind fields described in previous section can be used for this class of models.

11.4 Swell Waves

Wind waves which are generated in a fetch, propagate out of the fetch in a fan of directions
(Fig.11.6). These waves which are no longer influenced by the wind are called swell waves
or simply the swell.

Swell waves show different characteristics compared to storm waves (i.e. the waves in the
fetch under the influence of wind.). For one thing, swell waves are more regular in form
resembling our idealized sinusoidal wave. Heights of swell waves are smaller compared to
storm waves.

140
 Figure 11.6 Dispersion of waves outside the fetch

It was said that waves of different heights, moving in a variety of directions were present
in the fetch. These different wave motions interact in the fetch and may add up their
energies and result in very high waves. The interactions of swell waves are much less
important since waves disperse (i.e. spread around or move in different directions) after
leaving the fetch area.

Swell waves are known to move great distances without loosing much of their energy if an
obstruction does not cross their way. For instance, waves which are created in the southern
hemisphere have been traced to reach Alaska, having considerable part of their initial
energy.

11.5 Sea Roses

The heights of the waves observed from ships (usually by eye) are usually used for the
preparation of sea roses. A sea rose is a drawing which shows the frequency distribution of
the observed heights of storm waves with respect to their propagation direction (see
Fig.11.7). Swell roses are similar drawings for swell waves. These sea or swell roses are
usually given in navigation charts. However, they may be useful for engineering purposes
if no other wave data are available.

141
 N

NW NE

W SE E
SW S

SE
SW

Figure 11.7 Typical sea rose available in sea and swell charts (british
standards)

11.6 Design Wave

For the determination of design wave characteristics the hindcasted wave data are
statistically analyzed. Generally, the alternative approaches are:

a) the use of all wave data available. In this case the analysis is called long-term analysis
on the persistency of the sea state.

b) the use of the maximum wave heìghts during a fixed time period (usually one year)
The analysis, in this case, is called as extreme wave statistics.

As a result of both analyses design wave having a selected return period may be computed.
The design wave of a selected return period is different from structure to structure
depending on the expected risk in the design. For example, prediction of sediment
transport rates requires a knowledge of the annual percent exceedence of daily mean wave
heights, periods, and nearshore directions as well as seasonal variations in these
characteristics. Whereas, for flexible structures such as rubble-mound breakwaters, whose
failure are gradual leaving chances for repairing, significant wave height (H1/3) is used as

142
the design wave height having a selected return period say 50 years. For the rigid offshore
structures, where the failures are catastrophic rather than gradual, a design wave with a
much longer return period, say 1000 years, is needed.

143