sesonal seasonally adjusted

year quarter data forecast error factor call volume

1 1 6.809 0.93 7.30
1 2 6.465 6.809 0.344 0.90 7.18
1 3 6.569 6.465 0.104 0.99 6.65
1 4 8.266 8.211 0.055 1.18 7.01
2 1 7.257 6.613 0.644 0.93 7.78
2 2 7.064 7.257 0.193 0.90 7.84
2 3 7.784 7.064 0.720 0.99 7.88
2 4 8.724 9.730 1.006 1.18 7.40
3 1 6.992 6.979 0.013 0.93 7.50
3 2 6.822 6.992 0.170 0.90 7.57
3 3 7.949 6.822 1.127 0.99 8.05
3 4 9.65 9.936 0.286 1.18 8.18
4 1 7.720
4 2
4 3
4 4
 1 seasonally adjusted seasonally adjusted actual forecasting
value value forecast forecast error
6.809 7.30
6.465 7.18 7.30 6.58 0.115
6.569 6.65 7.18 7.08 0.516
8.266 7.01 6.65 7.85 0.419
7.257 7.78 7.01 6.53 0.723
7.064 7.84 7.78 7.01 0.051
7.784 7.88 7.84 7.74 0.043
8.724 7.40 7.88 9.30 0.574
6.992 7.50 7.40 6.90 0.096
6.822 7.57 7.50 6.76 0.065
7.949 8.05 7.57 7.48 0.473
9.65 8.18 8.05 9.50 0.155
8.18 7.63
 number of previous
periods to consider 7.50 6.99 0.18
n= 4 7.40 6.90 0.44
7.29 6.80 0.23
6.97 6.50 1.77
7.035 6.559 0.698 6.99 6.52 0.74
7.155 6.447 0.617 7.39 6.89 0.18
7.322 7.229 0.555 7.61 7.10 0.69
7.629 8.998 0.274 7.75 7.22 1.50
7.726 7.203 0.211 7.57 7.06 0.07
7.655 6.897 0.075 7.54 7.03 0.20
7.588 7.492 0.457 7.55 7.04 0.91
7.630 8.999 0.651 7.80 7.27 2.38
7.826 7.296 7.99 7.45
smoothing constant
α= 0.5 MAD = 0.424 QUARTER TYA
1 7.02
initial estimate 2 6.78
average= 7.500 MSE = 0.317815 3 7.43
4 8.88

mad= 0.4423479
mse= 0.2418289
0.93
0.90
0.99
1.18