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  • TE - Rezando Dwi Izzan Ramdhani - 20227102

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    1. The document analyzes the costs and benefits of building a 600 MW coal-fired power plant (PLTG) with an investment of $1800/kW over 20 years. It calculates the net present value (NPV) of $398.96 million, indicating the project is financially viable. 2. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the EPC cost by 30% and fuel cost by 30%, resulting in negative NPVs, showing the project is sensitive to increases in these costs. 3. A 10% decrease in electricity tariff to 18.9 c/kWh also produced a negative NPV, though the project is less sensitive to tariff changes than cost increases. 4

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    1. The document analyzes the costs and benefits of building a 600 MW coal-fired power plant (PLTG) with an investment of $1800/kW over 20 years. It calculates the net present value (NPV) of $398.96 million, indicating the project is financially viable. 2. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the EPC cost by 30% and fuel cost by 30%, resulting in negative NPVs, showing the project is sensitive to increases in these costs. 3. A 10% decrease in electricity tariff to 18.9 c/kWh also produced a negative NPV, though the project is less sensitive to tariff changes than cost increases. 4

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    5 views5 pages

    TE - Rezando Dwi Izzan Ramdhani - 20227102

    Uploaded by

    Erika
    1. The document analyzes the costs and benefits of building a 600 MW coal-fired power plant (PLTG) with an investment of $1800/kW over 20 years. It calculates the net present value (NPV) of $398.96 million, indicating the project is financially viable. 2. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the EPC cost by 30% and fuel cost by 30%, resulting in negative NPVs, showing the project is sensitive to increases in these costs. 3. A 10% decrease in electricity tariff to 18.9 c/kWh also produced a negative NPV, though the project is less sensitive to tariff changes than cost increases. 4

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 5

    Nama : Okta Jeryanto

    NIK : 2022710250128
    Tugas : Manajemen dan Ekonomi Teknik

    1.

    PLTG
    Kapasitas 600 MW
    Investasi 1800 $/kW
    Fuel Cost 8 c/kWh
    CF 80%
    Var. O&M 8%
    Fixed O&M 20%
    Tarif PLTG 21 c/kWh

    Discount Rate 20%


    Umur Ekonomis 20 tahun

    Cost – PLTG Total PV


    A B C D Pendapatan Net
    0 1080 -1080
    1 216 336.38 26.91 883.01 883.008-579.29472 303.71
    2 883.01 883.008-579.29472 303.71
    .. … … … … … …
    20 216 336.38 26.91 883.01 883.008-579.29472 303.71
    PV 1080 1051.83 1638.06 131.04 3900.93 4299.90 1478.96
    Diakhir tahun 20
    (NPV) 398.96

    Kapasitas (MW) ∗EPC Cost ($per kW)∗1000


    - A M$ = 1000000
    600 MW ∗ 1800 ∗ 1000
    - A M$ = 1000000
    - A M$ = 1080 M$

    - B M$ = Komponen A M$ ∗ Presentase Fixed Cost


    - B M$ = 1080 M$ ∗ 20%
    - B M$ = 216 M$

    - B total PV = B M$ * (P/A, 20%, 20)


    - B total PV = 216 M$ * 4.8696
    - B total PV = 1051.83 M$
    Kapasitas (MW) ∗jam−pertahun ∗CF
    - Produksi (GWh) =
    1000
    600 ∗ 8760 h ∗80%
    - Produksi (GWh) = 1000
    - Produksi (GWh) = 4204.8 𝐺𝑊ℎ

    Produksi (GWh) ∗Fuel Cost (c$/kWh) ∗ 1000000


    - C M$ = 100∗1000000
    4204.8 (GWh) ∗ 8.0 (c$/kWh) ∗ 1000000
    - C M$ = 100∗1000000
    - C M$ = 336.38 𝑀$

    - C Total PV = C Setahun * (P/A, 20%, 20)


    - C Total PV = 336.38M$ * 4.8696
    - C Total PV = 1638.06 M$

    - D M$ = Komponen C * Presentase Variable Cost


    - D M$ = 26.91 M$ * 40%
    - D M$ = 26.91 M$

    - D Total PV = D Setahun * (P/A, 20%, 20)


    - D Total PV = 26.91 M$ * 4.8696
    - D Total PV = 131.04 M$

    - Total PV Cost = A + B + C + D
    - Total PV Cost = 1080 M$ + 1051.83M$ + 1638.06 M& + 131.04 M$
    - Total PV Cost = 3900.03 M$

    - Produksi = 4204.8 GWh


    - Pendapatan per tahun = Produksi (GWh) * Tarif PLTG (c/kWh)
    - Pendapatan per tahun = 4204.8 * 21
    - Pendapatan per tahun = 883.31 M$

    - Pendapatan total dalam PV = Pendapatan per-tahun * (P/A, 20, 20)


    - Pendapatan total dalam PV = 833.31 * 4.8696
    - Pendapatan total dalam PV = 4299.9 M$

    - Net per tahun = Pendapatan – (Komp. B + Komp. C + Komp. D)


    - Net per tahun = 883.01 M$ - (1051.83M$ + 1638.06 M& + 131.04 M$)
    - Net per tahun = 303.71 M$

    - NPV = PV Benefit – PV Cost


    - NPV = 4299.9 M$ – 3900.93M$
    - NPV = 398.86 M$

    - Benefit Cost Ratio = PV Benefit / PV Cost


    - Benefit Cost Ratio = 4299.9 M$ / 3900.93 M$
    - Benefit Cost Ratio = 1.1
    - IRR, jika I = 20% maka NPV = (303.71 * 4.8696) – 1080 = 398.86 M$
    - IRR, jika I = 25% maka NPV = (303.71 * 3.9539) – 1080 = 120.85 M$
    - IRR, jika I = 30% maka NPV = (303.71 * 3.3158) – 1080 = -72.95 M$

    -
    Y−Y1 X−X1
    - =
    Y2−Y1 X2−X1
    0−120.85 IRR−25%
    - =
    −72.95−120.85 30%−25%
    −120.85 IRR−25%
    - =
    −193.8 5%
    IRR−25%
    - 0.62 = 5%
    - 0,03117 = IRR − 25%
    - IRR = 0,28117 = 28,117%
    2.
    - Harga EPC naik 30%

    Cost – PLTG Total PV


    A B C D Pendapatan
    0 1404
    1 280.8 336.38 26.91 883.01
    2 883.01
    .. … … … …
    20 280.8 336.38 26.91 883.01
    PV 1404 1367.38 1638.06 131.04 4540.08 4299.90
    Diakhir tahun 20
    -240.59
    (NPV)
    EPC Cost naik 30% : 1800 $/kW * 130% = 2340 M$
    Nilai NPV = PV Pendapatan – Total PV
    Nilai NPV = 4299.9 M$ - 4540.08 M$
    Nilai NPV = -240.59 M$

    - Fuel Cost naik 30%

    Cost – PLTG Total PV


    A B C D Pendapatan Net
    0 1080 437.30 34.98 -1080
    1 216 437.30 34.98 883.01 883.008-688.283136 194.72
    2 883.01 883.008-688.283136 194.72
    .. … … … … … …
    20 216 437.30 34.98 883.01 883.008-688.283136 194.72
    PV 1080 1051.83 2129.47 170.36 4431.66 4299.90 948.23
    Diakhir tahun 20
    -131.77
    (NPV)
    Fuel Cost naik 30% : 8 c$/kWh * 130% = 10.4 c$/kWh
    Nilai NPV = PV Pendapatan – Total PV
    Nilai NPV = 4299.9 M$ - 4431.66 M$
    Nilai NPV = -131.77 M$
    - Tarif pendapatan turun 10% (Tarif Low)

    Cost – PLTG Total PV


    A B C D Pendapatan Net
    0 1080 -1080
    1 216 336.38 26.91 794.71 794.7072-579.29472 215.41
    2 794.7072-579.29472 215.41
    .. … … …
    20 216 336.38 26.91 794.7072-579.29472 215.41
    PV 1080 1051.83 1638.06 131.04 3900.93 3869.91 1048.97
    Diakhir tahun 20
    (NPV) 398.96
    Tarif turun 10% : 21 c$/kWh * 90% = 18.9 c$/kWh
    Nilai NPV = PV Pendapatan – Total PV
    Nilai NPV = 3869 M$ – 3900.93
    Nilai NPV = -31.03 M$
    Kesimpulan : Proyek pembangunan PLTG ini sangat sensitif terhadap tarif EPC, tidak terlalu
    sensitif terhadap tarif pendapatan (Tarif Low)

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