Lab 4 –

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics

Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management (ISEM)

College of Design and Engineering
National University of Singapore

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 Let's protect the environment
Lecture notes are subject to change before
the class for further improvement
(Ver. 5 January 2024)

Acknowledgement
The preparation of this module has been made possible by the support from IE2141
teaching team, and the past teaching materials developed by A/Prof. Aaron Chia.

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 Learning Outcome
▪ With a system dynamics model on Epidemics, practicing on
sensitivity analysis and decision making with simulation based
optimization

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 Introduction – Epidemics (Same as Lab 3)
An epidemic is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of people in a given
population within a short period of time. An epidemic may be restricted to one
location; however, if it spreads to other countries or continents and affects a
substantial number of people, it may be termed a pandemic. The declaration of an
epidemic usually requires a good understanding of a baseline rate of incidence;
epidemics for certain diseases, such as influenza, are defined as reaching some
defined increase in incidence above this baseline.

Epidemics are in the news, from AIDS to Ebola, SARS, etc. They are important
dynamics to understand, both in how people should behave individually to protect
themselves from being infected, and in understanding which policies might be
enacted to protect the whole population.

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 Introduction – Epidemics (Same as Lab 3)
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered
coronavirus. Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to
moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older people,
and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic
respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop serious illness.

Suppose you are a member of a team of scientists who are studying the rapid spread of a
major disease. You know how many people have the disease and you also know how the
disease is spread. Now you are interested in studying future likely scenarios and the
measures needed.

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 Part 4 – Modelling Circuit Breaker

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 Part 4 – Modelling Circuit Breaker
▪ Start with the model file provided “Lab 4 Base Model.stmx”,
which incorporated all features implemented in Lab 3.
▪ With demonstration from the lab TAs, add the modelling of
circuit breaker as illustrated on the next two slides.

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 Part 4 – Modelling Circuit Breaker

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 Part 4 – Modelling Circuit Breaker

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 1

With the configuration as illustrated on the slides, run the simulation for 1080 Days
with DT = 1/4. What is number of uninfected population at the end of the simulation?
(10 marks)
A. 177k
B. 191k
C. 809k
D. 823k

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 2
Which of the following is the best strategy among the four, in reducing the number of
infected population? (10 marks)
A. Increase Circuit Breaker Effectiveness to 1.0
B. Double the Circuit Breaker Duration
C. Bring forward Circuit Breaker by 30 days
D. Postpone Circuit Breaker for 30 days

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis
▪ With demonstration from the lab TAs, conduct Sensitivity
Analysis for following three parameters.
▪ Circuit Breaker Effectiveness
▪ Circuit Breaker Duration
▪ Circuit Breaker Start Day

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis
▪ Step 1 – Select “Model Analysis Tools \ Sensitivity”

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis
▪ Step 2 – Select “Sensitivity Parameters”

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis
▪ Step 3 – Set “Sensitivity Analysis Options” and “Selected
Sensitivity Parameter Options”

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis
▪ Step 4 – Create a Graph to
observe performance variable.
Select only one variable, then tick
“Comparative”

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 Part 5 – Sensitivity Analysis
▪ Step 5 – Click “Run” under “Model Analysis Tools \ Sensitivity”

Values for
sensitivity
parameters

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 3
With Sensitivity Analysis on “Circuit Breaker Effectiveness” for 5 incremental samples
from 0 to 1, which of the following graph do you observe? (10 marks)

A. B. C. D.

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 4
With Sensitivity Analysis on “Circuit Breaker Effectiveness”, which conclusion can you
draw from the results? (10 marks)
A. High “Circuit Breaker Effectiveness” delays the infection
B. Low “Circuit Breaker Effectiveness” delays the infection
C. High “Circuit Breaker Effectiveness” increases the ending uninfected population
D. Low “Circuit Breaker Effectiveness” increases the ending uninfected population

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 5
With Sensitivity Analysis on “Circuit Breaker Duration” for 5 incremental samples from
20 to 80, which of the following graph do you observe? (10 marks)

A. B. C. D.

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 6
With Sensitivity Analysis on “Circuit Breaker Duration”, which conclusion can you
draw from the results? (10 marks)
A. Long “Circuit Breaker Duration” increases the ending uninfected population
B. Short “Circuit Breaker Duration” increases the ending uninfected population
C. Long “Circuit Breaker Duration” delays the infection
D. Short “Circuit Breaker Duration” delays the infection

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 7
With Sensitivity Analysis on “Circuit Breaker Start Day” for 5 incremental samples
from 20 to 80, which of the following graph do you observe? (10 marks)

A. B. C. D.

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 8

With Sensitivity Analysis on “Circuit Breaker Start Day”, which conclusion can you draw
from the results? You may consider to extend the range of sensitivity analysis on "Circuit
Breaker Start Day" to [20, 160]. (10 marks)
A. Early “Circuit Breaker Start Day” increases the ending “Uninfected Population”
B. Late “Circuit Breaker Start Day” increases the ending “Uninfected Population”
C. The ending “Uninfected Population” is sensitive to the “Circuit Breaker Start Day”
D. The ending “Total Number of Infected” is sensitive to the “Circuit Breaker Start Day”

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 9
Which of the following parameter is the ending uninfected population most sensitive
to? (10 marks)
A. Circuit Breaker Start Day
B. Circuit Breaker Duration
C. Circuit Breaker Effectiveness
D. All are equal

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 Part 6 – Optimization

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 Part 6 – Optimization
▪ With demonstration from the lab TAs, conduct Optimization for
the Uninfected Population (at the end of 1080 days)

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 Part 6 – Optimization
▪ Step 1 – Select “Model Analysis Tools \ Payoff”, set the payoff
variable

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 Part 6 – Optimization
▪ Step 2 – Select “Model Analysis Tools \ Optimization”, set
optimization parameters and options

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 Part 6 – Optimization
▪ Step 3 – Click “Run”, and observe the value of “Optimization
Parameters”, and payoff variables

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 Lab Assignment #5
Question 10
With the default configuration in the model, what is the optimal “Circuit Breaker Start
Day”, that maximizes the Uninfected Population at the end of 1080 days? Assume
other parameters remain as in the default configuration. (10 marks)
A. 60
B. 80
C. 100
D. 120

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 Submission– Lab Assignment 4
▪ Follow the instructions in each part, build and run the SD Model,
based on initial values and equations mentioned in the slides;

▪ Answer the 10 MCQ questions on Canvas Quiz.

▪ You have TWO days to complete the submission.

▪ Only the last attempt will be taken.

▪ Although team discussion is allowed, individual submission is

required.

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 Let's protect the environment
Lecture notes are subject to change before
the class for further improvement

THANK YOU
The preparation of this module has been made possible by
the support from IE2141 teaching team, and the past
teaching materials developed by A/Prof. Aaron Chia.

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – ISEM Department, National University of Singapore 33