Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209

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Atmospheric Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosres

A mechanistic investigation into the unusual intensification of rainfall over

Western India during the 2019 summer monsoon
D.C. Ayantika a, b, *, K.M. Sumit a, b, R. Krishnan a, b, R. Vellore a, P. Guhathakurta c
a
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
b
Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India
c
India Meteorological Department, Pune, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study presents a detailed analysis of the 2019 record-breaking seasonal (June–September) monsoon rainfall,
Heavy rainfall since 1901, over large areas of Western India, which evolved in the backdrop of an intense positive Indian Ocean
Western India Dipole (pIOD) event. Analysis of ground-station-observed daily rainfall data revealed that the unusually exces­
Stratiform latent heating
sive and flood-producing monsoonal rains of 2019 over Western India were driven by three intense rain episodes
Indian Ocean Dipole
Summer monsoon
occurring between late June and September viz., 1) 28th June – 12th July 2) 24th July – 11th August 3) 2nd
Potential vorticity September – 13th September, characterized by large-scale bands of organized convection. We observed an
abundance of stratiform precipitation from GPM Precipitation Radar swaths during the heavy-to-extreme rain
events, indicating the presence of organized mesoscale convective systems with elevated heating over the region.
Our findings suggest that the continual top-heavy stratiform heating forced a Rossby-wave pattern with regional
stretching of mid-tropospheric potential vorticity across South and Southeast Asia, creating a favorable envi­
ronment for sustaining widespread monsoon heavy-to-extreme rain events. Results reveal that the pIOD condi­
tions that prevailed over tropical Indian Ocean during 2019 led to enhanced cross-equatorial moisture transport
and were vital in fostering deep convection and heavy precipitation in this region. Interestingly, upon analyzing
long-term data, we observed a 25% increase in the spatiotemporally aggregated rainfall over Western India
contributed by seasonally abundant heavy rainfall events during pIOD years, as compared to non-pIOD years.
Overall, this study underscores the potential hydrological consequences of intense pIOD manifestations on
intense rain episodes and their impact on the monsoon-centric regions of South and Southeast Asia, particularly
in a warming world.

1. Introduction
In recent decades, the southwest monsoon (June–September) season
of the Indian subcontinent has been markedly witnessing frequent heavy
rainfall events over the Indian states of Maharashtra and Gujarat (Dave
and James, 2017; Guhathakurta et al., 2020a; Guhathakurta et al.,
2020b; Maharana et al., 2021; Pai et al., 2015). Accompanying land­
slides and devastating flood situations impair the lives of millions of
people living in the region (Mishra and Shah, 2018; Tripathi, 2015). This
study investigates the plausible mechanism for the remarkable precipi­
tation enhancements that occurred over large areas of Western India
during the 2019 summer monsoon (SunithaDevi et al., 2019; Yadav
et al., 2019a), as evidenced by the highest JJAS rainfall anomaly
recorded in Western India over the past 120 years, shown in the
time-series plot given in Fig. 1a. One of the striking aspects of this season
is that most of the meteorological subdivisions in the western peninsula
and west-central India recorded rainfall amounts exceeding 20% of the
seasonal average (Fig. 1b). Frequent heavy rain spells during this season,
including record-breaking rain events over western Maharashtra, trig­
gered calamitous flood situations (SunithaDevi et al., 2019) claiming
382 lives (Mausam, 2020). Concurrently, the state of Gujarat too expe­
rienced heavy rainfall and flooding, with the Saurashtra & Kutch sub­
division receiving substantially large rain amounts (+166% of its
long-period average; see Yadav et al., 2019b) among all the sub­
divisions in the country.
Another distinctive feature of the 2019 summer monsoon season was
the development of an intense positive IOD (pIOD) event (Nyadjro,
2021; Ratna et al., 2021) — a coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon

* Corresponding author at: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune 411008, India.
E-mail address: ayantika@tropmet.res.in (D.C. Ayantika).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107209
Received 6 May 2023; Received in revised form 7 December 2023; Accepted 27 December 2023
Available online 31 December 2023
0169-8095/© 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
D.C. Ayantika et al.
in the Indian Ocean (Saji et al., 1999) that is characterized by a dipolar
warming/cooling pattern of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over
tropical Indian Ocean (Fig. 1a-b). Several studies have reported summer
monsoon precipitation enhancements over the Indian subcontinent
during the pIOD years resulting from enhanced cross-equatorial mois­
ture transport and moisture convergence over the Indian landmass
(Behera et al., 1999; Ashok et al., 2001; Behera and Ratnam, 2018;
Cherchi et al., 2021; Krishnan and Swapna, 2009). Recent studies
additionally accentuate that the excessive Indian Summer Monsoon
rainfall of 2019 is related to the strengthening of monsoon circulation
(Ratna et al., 2021; Sankar et al., 2021) together with anomalous con­
vection extending eastward from northern Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal
(Pattanaik et al., 2021). In the backdrop of a warming climate, the 2019
intense pIOD condition was distinctly conspicuous, as compared to the
past strong pIOD events (e.g., 1961 and 1994). The marked increase in
column water vapor content over South and South-East Asia during the
recent decades (Fig. S1) has the potential to trigger recurring precipi­
tation extremes over this region (Kim et al., 2022). This point will be
discussed in greater detail in Section 2. Although studies have reported
that pIOD events are accompanied by extreme rainfall instances and
enhanced circulation activity of monsoon synoptic-scale systems over
the Indian subcontinent on sub-seasonal timescales (Ajayamohan and
(a)
(b)
Fig. 1. (a) JJAS mean time series of rainfall anomaly (%, hollow bars) averaged over Western India (68◦ E–75◦ E, 16◦ N–24.5◦ N) and Dipole Mode Index (◦ C, filled
bars) during 1901–2020. Dashed lines: standard deviation of DMI (0.4 ◦ C) (b) 2019 JJAS mean anomalies for IMD sub-divisional rainfall (shading over India, %), SST
(shading over ocean, ◦ C), and 600 hPa horizontal wind (arrows, m s− 1).
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
Rao, 2008; Gadgil et al., 2004; Karuna Sagar et al., 2017; Krishnan et al.,
2011), a robust connection between pIOD and extreme rainfall still re­
mains an open scientific problem owing to the diverse physical processes
interacting on multiple motion scales (see Krishnaswamy et al., 2015).
The Indian summer monsoon season is characterized by prominent
sub-seasonal variability of rainfall (Goswami and Mohan, 2001;
Krishnan et al., 2009; Sperber et al., 2000) manifested as alternating
periods of widespread rainfall enhancement/suppression over the
monsoon rain-fed regions of the subcontinent (Annamalai and Slingo,
2001; Gadgil and Joseph, 2003; Rajeevan et al., 2010). Over Western
India, the rainfall enhancements are often accompanied by heavy
precipitating events and are commonly known to be triggered by syn­
optic systems such as mid-tropospheric cyclones (MTCs), lows and de­
pressions, intense off-shore trough, off-shore vortices, as well as intra-
seasonal variations of the monsoon convergence zone (Choudhury
et al., 2018; Deb et al., 2008; Francis and Gadgil, 2006; Laskar et al.,
2015; Mohanty et al., 2012; Pradhan et al., 2015; Vaidya and Kulkarni,
2007). Interestingly, the June–September (JJAS) mid-tropospheric cir­
culation anomalies during 2019 reveal a cyclonic vortex co-located with
the convectively active region over north Arabian Sea (Pattanaik, 2007)
with easterly wind anomalies over the Equatorial Indian Ocean (Fig. 1b).
While such mid-level cyclonic anomalies are typically noted in
D.C. Ayantika et al. Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209

association with heavily precipitating synoptic-scale disturbances such
as the MTCs (Choudhury et al., 2018; Miller and Keshavamurthy, 1968),
their persistent prevalence on the seasonal scale is rather intriguing. This
gives an indication of a potential linkage between the mid-level circu­
lation features and the largest seasonal precipitation anomalies in a
century over large areas of Western India (Fig. 1a,b), and our objective,
broadly, is to explore and provide insights into the possible
interconnections.
Also, embedded within the summer monsoon disturbances are
organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The MCSs are basically
regions of contiguous precipitation of ~100 km or more in horizontal
dimension and consist of deep convection with convective and

Fig. 2. (a) Normalized daily counts of IMD rain-gauge stations that recorded heavy (pink bars), very heavy (pale red bars), and extremely heavy (dark red bars)
rainfall during JJAS 2019 over the western Indian subdivisions (Inset map). Dashed line: threshold for IREs. (b) Spatially aggregated daily station rainfall (×103 mm)
for heavy rainfall (≥64.5 mm) during JJAS 2019 over the same region as in (a). IMERG daily heavy rainfall (≥64.5 mm) grid count (normalized by IRE duration) for
(c) IRE-1; (d) IRE-2; (e) IRE-3. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

3
D.C. Ayantika et al.
stratiform rainy areas (Houze Jr., 2004; Yuan and Houze, 2010; Zuluaga
and Houze, 2013). Several studies have shown that organized MCSs
cause deep convection and widespread heavy rainfall over coastal
Maharashtra and Gujarat (Benson and Rao, 1987; Das et al., 2007; Dodla
and Ratna, 2010; Kumar et al., 2008; Moron et al., 2021; Sikka and
Gadgil, 1980). While the monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghat
mountains in Western India has major contributions from rain-bearing
shallow cloud systems (Romatschke and Houze, 2011; Shige and Kum­
merow, 2016), larger and long-lasting MCSs frequently observed over
this region during active phases of the southwest monsoon comprise of
deep stratiform clouds (Choudhury et al., 2018; Virts and Houze, 2016).
This study focuses on understanding the coupled large-scale atmo­
spheric associations favorable for the development of stratiform
precipitating MCSs over Western India while exploring its possible
connections with ambient oceanic conditions over the Indian Ocean and
their combined role in precipitation enhancements over Western India.
2. Datasets and methods
This study utilizes the ground-station-observed quality-controlled
daily rainfall for 2019 JJAS season from 453 rain gauge stations in
western Maharashtra and Gujarat, encompassing four meteorological
subdivisions, viz., Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra &
Kutch, and Gujarat Region (Inset map of Fig. 2a), archived by the Na­
tional Data Centre (NDC) of the India Meteorological Department (IMD),
Pune. The number of stations reporting rainfall over the study domain
on any individual day varies between 453 and 431 during the 2019 JJAS
season; the standard deviation of 5 indicates the temporal consistency of
the number of rain gauges functioning throughout the season. Seasonal
rainfall analysis is supplemented by Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals
for GPM (IMERG; 0.1◦ × 0.1◦ ) daily final-run product (Huffman et al.,
2020) comprising combined microwave and infrared satellite estimates.
Additionally, subdivision-wise rainfall departure documented in
‘Weather in India’ section of Mausam, 2020 issue has been used to get a
seasonal picture of anomalous rainfall distribution over the country.
Number of stations with heavy rainfall on a day
heavy rainfall station count index =
Total number of stations on the respective day
Long-term rainfall anomaly time series for the period 1901–2020 has
been constructed based on IMD gridded (0.25◦ × 0.25◦ ; land-only data
excluding islands) daily rainfall data (Pai et al., 2015).
To assess the contribution of stratiform processes in heavy rainfall of
2019, we examine the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-
frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) precipitation profiles for heavy-
to-extreme rain days on which satellite swaths are available over the
study region (Iguchi and Meneghini, 2021). The gridded level-3 satellite
product (0.25◦ × 0.25◦ ) provides a high-quality estimate of surface rain
rate and precipitation type (stratiform, convective) computed from the
three-dimensional distribution of hydrometeors captured by the on-
board radars. Here we use the estimates from Ku-band precipitation
radar (KuPR; 13.6 GHz) with a swath width of 245 km. The GPM DPR
instrument is located on the GPM Core Observatory spaceborne in a 650
inclined non-sun-synchronous orbit and completes approximately 16
orbits per day, thus sampling the precipitation over a particular location
in global tropics every three to four days (Hou et al., 2014). It is the
successor of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission’s (TRMM) precipita­
tion radar and provides improved detectability and classification of rain
than its predecessor (Gao et al., 2017). Vertical profiles of cloud heating
(convective, deep stratiform, shallow stratiform) explain the interplay
between precipitation, diabetic heating, and circulation. Hence, we look
into the GPM Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) level-3 product retrieved
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
from GPM KuPR estimates (GPM Science Team, 2022). This data is
gridded to a 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ latitude-longitude grid and consists of 80 ver­
tical levels each of 0.25 km thickness, enabling it to finely resolve the
three-dimensional structure of heating inside the precipitating systems.
The use of KuPR estimates to retrieve latent heating contributes to a
discontinuity in the spatio-temporal sampling of precipitating systems.
However, they can offer valuable insights into the vertical distribution of
latent heating within these systems. Therefore, we use the twelve
available GPM swaths over Western India that captured the presence of
convective systems during the intense rainfall episodes (IREs) in the
2019 JJAS season (Fig. S5).
Monthly sea surface temperature (SST) conditions are based on
Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 for the period 1901–2020
(ERSSTv5; 2◦ × 2◦ ; Huang et al., 2017). Analyses of horizontal wind,
vertical velocity, specific humidity, and air temperature employ fifth-
generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Reanalysis datasets (ERA5; (Hersbach et al., 2020). This high-resolution
dataset (0.25◦ × 0.25◦ and 37 vertical levels ranging 1000–1 hPa) is
used to regress the atmospheric fields on heavy rainfall count index (see
methods). Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which can act as a proxy
for convection, has been taken from the National Oceanic and Atmo­
spheric Administration’s (NOAA) daily OLR climate data record (1◦ ×
1◦ ; Lee and NOAA CDR Program, 2011). We also use temperature ten­
dencies (0.625◦ × 0.5◦ , 42 vertical levels ranging 1000–0.1 hPa) asso­
ciated with atmospheric moist heating and radiative cooling procured
from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications
version 2 (MERRA2; Gelaro et al., 2017).
Keeping the usage of IMD station rainfall in mind, here we adopt the
rain classification by IMD to define daily heavy (64.5 ≤ rain <124.5
mm), very heavy (124.5 ≤ rain <244.5 mm), and extreme (rain ≥244.5
mm) rainfall categories. As the total number of operational rain gauge
varies day to day, a heavy rainfall station count index is developed by
normalizing daily counts of stations that reported rainfall ≥64.5 mm by
total counts of stations on respective days. This index is defined as,
A station observes heavy rainfall as the rainfall surpasses 64.5 mm in
a day. The day-to-day variation of the heavy rainfall station count index
is illustrated in Fig. 2a. Linear regression analyses of the daily series of
various atmospheric fields for each grid point during monsoon 2019 are
performed against the daily series of this index to realize their dominant
spatial patterns for the heavy-to-extreme rainfall days of the season. To
gain insights into seasonal patterns of moisture availability, we carried
out an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of JJAS mean
vertically integrated water vapor (precipitable water) over South and
Southeast Asia and the tropical Indian Ocean (45◦ E–130◦ E, 15◦ S–35◦ N)
for 1959–2022. The principal component (PC) series represents the
temporal variations of the spatial pattern corresponding to the EOFs.
Non-parametric Man-Kendall tests are performed to check the statistical
significance of the trends in the time series of precipitable water and its
PCs.
3. Results and discussions
3.1. Analysis of intense rain episodes and latent heating
The temporal variation in heavy-to-extreme rainfall over western
Maharashtra and Gujarat, is interpreted by analyzing the heavy rainfall
count index shown as stacked bar plot (Fig. 2a) of normalized station
D.C. Ayantika et al. Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209

counts reporting heavy (pink), very heavy (pale red), extreme (dark red) organization of deep convective systems over monsoon trough zone
rainfalls during the 2019 monsoon season for Konkan & Goa, Madhya along with the propagation of monsoon rainbands from EIO towards the
Maharashtra, Saurashtra & Kutch, and Gujarat Region subdivisions. The Indian landmass.
occurrence of clustered intense rainfall episodes (IREs) is evident from Organized deep convection during the active phase of the Indian
the episodic increase/decrease in the spatial coverage of stations Summer Monsoon predominantly arises from stratiform precipitating
reporting heavy, very heavy, and extreme rainfall days. The MCSs with a top-heavy heating structure (Choudhury and Krishnan,
commencement of an IRE is recognized when at least 5% (~23) of the 2011; Virts and Houze, 2016). The presence of stratiform precipitating
stations reported heavy to extreme rain incidences continuously for five clouds together with convective clouds during active monsoon periods
days or more. The spell concludes when the incidences fall below 5% of at higher elevations of the Western Ghats has been reported by Chak­
the stations for five consecutive days. This criterion ensures that heavy- ravarty et al. (2018). Using GPM DPR data we have analyzed the rain-
to-extreme rain periods are not sporadic but coupled with the large-scale types in the MCSs occurring during the IRE days over Western India
monsoon environment. Using this threshold, three IRE periods over (Fig. S5). The left column of each subplot in Fig. S5 shows examples of
Western India are identified during the 2019 summer monsoon: 1) 28 total rain (convective + stratiform + others) when the DPR passes were
June–12 July, 2) 24 July–11 August, and 3) 1–14 September (Fig. 2a). located over the Western India region. Corresponding stratiform rain
The time evolution of spatially aggregated rainfall for heavy-to-extreme fractions for the same cases computed based on surface total rain rates
intensity rain events (≥ 64.5 mm) over Western India in Fig. 2b is and surface stratiform rain rates are shown in the right columns of each
analogous to the episodic variations in the station counts in Fig. 2a. subplot in Fig. S5. We notice high stratiform rain fractions along with
Substantially large rain accumulations during the IREs point to the se­ convective rain in the heavily precipitating MCSs over Western India
vere flood conditions that resulted from the contiguous heavy-to- during the 2019 IREs. To further enunciate this, we analyzed snapshots
extreme rain events. of vertical latent heating structure within the raining systems over the
On analyzing the heavy-to-extreme rain events over an extended west coast of India, Gujarat, and the adjoining Arabian Sea from the
domain of South and Southeast Asia (Fig. 2c-e), we notice coherent daily GPM SLH dataset (Fig. 3). The heating profiles are averaged over
occurrences of intense precipitation across the entire region indicating only the raining grids from the GPM satellite cross for days during the
the development of organized deep convection over large spatial scales. IREs. It is interesting to note that the profiles show larger magnitude
The evolution of anomalous OLR over Indian monsoonal longitudes
(Fig. S2) is dominated by northward propagating bands of enhanced
convection from the equator towards the subcontinent in conjunction
with continual in-situ development of organized convective systems
over the monsoon trough zone and Bay of Bengal (Fig. S3a-c). Persistent
intense organized convective anomalies north of 15◦ N are supported by
the active phase of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) and
genesis of synoptic systems over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea (Mau­
sam, 2020; Pattanaik et al., 2021). The 2019 IREs were supported by the
presence of one monsoon depression and six low pressure systems (LPSs)
over Bay of Bengal or eastern India (Table S1). We further noted that the
prolonged and vigorous second IRE (24th July to 11th August) was
featured partly by a gradual northward propagation of a strong band of
organized convection from the southern peninsula to central India, and
partly by in-situ development of organized convection over peninsular
India in association with a westward propagating monsoon depression.
From Fig. S3b, we note that the monsoon depression on 9th August 2019
was located over West-central India and was accompanied by deep
convection over Western India. Earlier studies have reported that north-
westward propagating monsoon depressions and LPS tend to promote
heavy rainfall over parts of western Ghats (Fletcher et al., 2020; Hunt
et al., 2021) through strengthening of the low-level jet in conjunction
with intensification ascending motions and humidity over Western
Ghats (Kottayil et al., 2021; Xavier et al., 2018). Furthermore, it was
reported in an earlier study by Krishnan et al. (2011), that the
strengthening of cross-equatorial moisture transport from the south-
eastern tropical Indian Ocean into the Bay of Bengal and enrichment
of barotropic instability of the monsoon flow during positive IOD events
are conducive for heightened activity of monsoon low pressure systems
(LPS) and depressions and increased precipitation over Central and
Western India. Their analysis indicated an extended lifespan of monsoon
LPS during the year 2006 – which co-occurred with a positive IOD event.
Interestingly, it can be noted from Fig. 1a, that substantial precipitation
enhancements occurred over Western India during the monsoon season
of 2006 as well. From Figs. 2a and S2 we understand that the occurrence
of all the three IREs are coincident with the migration/persistence of
large-scale organized convection across the latitudinal belt 15◦ N–20◦ N.
It is congruous with the fact that precipitation extremes over tropical
land regions depend on the spatial organization of deep convection (Bao
and Sherwood, 2019; Semie and Bony, 2020). During the 2019 monsoon Fig. 3. Examples of GPM-SLH vertical latent heating profiles (K hr− 1) averaged
season, there was an evident intensification of the vertical shear of zonal over raining grids for the swaths available within 66◦ E–76◦ E, 14◦ N–24◦ N
winds north of the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO; Fig. S4) favouring the during IREs.

5
D.C. Ayantika et al.
latent heating above 5 km with peak values at about 8 km (~400 hPa),
clearly indicating stratiform rain predominance in the MCSs (Choud­
hury et al., 2018; Schumacher et al., 2004). Heating profiles from GPM
swaths that successfully captured heavily precipitating organized MCSs
over Western India show stratiform latent heating rates in the range of
0.5–1.2 K hr− 1 at 400 hPa level, with some profiles showing higher
latent heating rates below 5 km contributed mainly by convective rain
within the precipitating system.
3.2. Mid-tropospheric circulation response during IREs
Organized convective systems generate abundant stratiform latent
heating (Johnson and Houze, 1987), which plays a profound role in
driving tropical large-scale circulations like the monsoons (Choudhury
and Krishnan, 2011; Krishnamurti and Bhalme, 1976). Since previous
research shows that the top-heavy stratiform heating structure is crucial
for intensification of mid-level cyclonic circulation over tropical regions
(Choudhury et al., 2018; Schumacher et al., 2004) through mid-level
Fig. 4. Distribution of regression coefficients of the following fields on heavy rainfall station count index: (a) 650–500 hPa relative vorticity (shading, 10−
circulation (arrows, m s− 1); (b) Potential vorticity (shading, PVU) and circulation (arrows, m s− 1) at 330 K isentropic surface.
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
convergence and subsequent vortex stretching (Mapes, 1993), in the
following we examine the regressed mid-tropospheric circulation during
the IREs. The mid-tropospheric circulation (Fig. 4a) shows a large east-
west oriented cyclonic gyre zonally extending from Western India to the
northern part of Bay of Bengal. A concurrent cyclonic circulation is also
observed over the South China Sea signifying a sizeable horizontal
structure of the circulation pattern. Consistent with this, one can notice
regions of large positive mid-level vorticity spanning from the northeast
Arabian Sea stretching across the Indian landmass into the Bay of Bengal
and farther to the South China Sea. A similar horizontal circulation
pattern is also mirrored on the 330 K isentropic surface (approximately
seen at mid-level over the study region) of potential vorticity (PV) and
winds (Fig. 4b) with clear signature of an elongated band of high PV
spreading over the South and Southeast Asian monsoon domain. A
noticeable feature is the presence of a mid-level PV maximum over
Western India embedded within the continental-scale PV structure.
To understand the vertical structure of PV associated with the
copious heavy rainfall activity over Western India, the regressed PV is
5 − 1
s ) and
D.C. Ayantika et al.
Fig. 5. Vertical section (averaged over 70◦ E–74◦ E) of regression coefficients of
Potential vorticity (shading, PVU) and vertical velocity (contours, − 1 Pa s− 1) on
heavy rainfall station count index; black solid contour: zero vertical velocity,
grey solid contours: ascent, grey dot-dashed contours: descent, contour interval:
0.2 Pa s− 1.
averaged over the PV maxima region shown in Fig. 4b (across
70◦ E–74◦ E), and the latitude-pressure section is plotted in Fig. 5. The
vertical cross-section shows an intense positive PV plume in the
600–300 hPa layer poleward of 15◦ N (Fig. 5) i.e., located just south of
Gujarat, and a broader mid-tropospheric PV signature together with
lower tropospheric positive PV within the 20◦ N–27◦ N latitude belt. Over
tropical regions, synoptic vortices with positive PV/cyclonic vorticity
anomalies in lower and mid-tropospheric levels are often associated
with high-intensity rain events (Choudhury et al., 2018; Hoang et al.,
2016; Hurley and Boos, 2015; Kushwaha et al., 2021). Note that large
mid-tropospheric PV values substantiate the presence of PV vortices
during the widespread heavy precipitating days of 2019. Heavy
monsoon precipitations over the western Indian regions of Gujarat and
coastal Maharashtra are often accompanied by mid-tropospheric cy­
clones (MTCs), a special kind of synoptic system characterized by pro­
nounced cyclonic vorticity in the middle levels and minimal signatures
at the surface (Miller and Keshavamurthy, 1968; Krishnamurti and
Hawkins, 1970; Kushwaha et al., 2021). Interestingly, the MTC events of
29 June – 8 July, 8–13 July, and 11–14 September 2019 (documented in
the ‘Weather in India’ section of Mausam, 2020) occurred with the first
and third IRE detected in our study. The second IRE was accompanied by
Fig. 6. Distribution of regression coefficients of following fields on heavy rainfall station count index: (a) vertically integrated moisture flux convergence anomaly
(10− 4 kg m− 2 s− 1); (b) 500 hPa vertical velocity anomaly (− 1 Pa s− 1).
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
westward propagating monsoon low pressure systems and an active
monsoon trough (Mausam, 2020). While PV anomalies are instrumental
in intensifying tropical vortices, the vertical structure of the anomalies is
significantly influenced by latent heating from stratiform and convective
precipitation in a convective system (Johnson and Ciesielski, 2020;
Murthy and Boos, 2019). Top-heavy stratiform heating generates posi­
tive PV anomalies in mid-tropospheric levels, and mid-level convective
heating produces lower tropospheric PV anomalies (Hertenstein and
Schubert, 1991). While investigating the mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis
over the northeast Arabian Sea, Choudhury et al. (2018) found that the
stratiform latent heating from organized MCSs is vital for vorticity
intensification in the middle troposphere. Our results also show that the
large-scale organized band of convection (Fig. S2), embedded with
stratiform precipitating MCSs, plays a crucial role in extensive
enhancement of mid-tropospheric PV during the heavy rainfall days
during the 2019 monsoon season. One can clearly notice that PV sig­
natures are supported by strong ascent in the mid- and lower tropo­
spheric levels within 15◦ N–25◦ N (Fig. 5). Enhanced mid-level ascent is
often associated with mid-level vorticity enhancements (Choudhury
et al., 2018), while intense low-level ascent during the IREs can be
ascribed to orographic uplift over the Western Ghats (Francis and
Gadgil, 2006; Zhang and Smith, 2018).
3.3. Linkage between IREs and IOD
Over tropical deep convective regimes, moisture flux convergence
and mid-tropospheric ascent provide the connecting link between the
large-scale atmospheric state and the organization of heavily precipi­
tating MCSs (Davies et al., 2013; Gao and Li, 2008; Kumar et al., 2017).
The regression of heavy-to-extreme rainfall station count index on the
daily anomalies of vertically integrated moisture convergence (Fig. 6a)
and 500 hPa vertical velocity (Fig. 6b) show enhancements in moisture
convergence and mid-level ascent, respectively, over western Indian
region which extends eastward across the subcontinent farther over
South China Sea. The regressed pattern of the column-integrated mois­
ture transport using rotational winds (Fig. 7a) reveals enhanced cross-
equatorial moisture anomalies, with moisture being depleted from EIO
and accumulated over the Indian subcontinent during the IREs. A band
of westerly wind anomalies within the latitudes 10◦ N–18◦ N, extending
from the Arabian Sea to the South China Sea, brings anomalous moisture
into the monsoonal regions. The north–south oriented pair of cyclo­
nic–anticyclonic anomalies centered across peninsular India is condu­
cive to transport larger amounts of water vapor towards western
Maharashtra and Gujarat. Significant moisture accumulation is also
evident from the large-scale increase in precipitable water over South
and Southeast Asia, with the highest positive anomalies over Western
India (Fig. 7b). The strengthened moisture transport is co-located with
the strengthened sub-seasonally organized cloud bands over the
D.C. Ayantika et al.
Fig. 7. Distribution of regression coefficients of following fields on heavy rainfall station count index: (a) OLR anomaly (shading, W m− 2) and vertically integrated
rotational moisture transport anomaly (arrows, kg m− 1 s− 1). (b) precipitable water anomaly (kg m− 2).
subcontinent as revealed from the regressed OLR pattern (Fig. 7a). One
can also notice a simultaneous widespread suppression of convection
over EIO. Anomalous moisture flux divergence over EIO emphasizes the
transport of water vapor from the regions of suppressed convection to
converge over the heavily raining regions of South Asia (Fig. 6a). The
extended band of enhanced moisture convergence over Western India,
Bay of Bengal and South China Sea clearly favors the development of
organized convective systems. The horizontal pattern of large-scale
negative OLR anomalies at the north and positive OLR anomalies at
the south sets up a robust north–south gradient which reinforces the
strengthened vapor transport and intensifies the circulation.
The 2019 pIOD SST anomalies showed persistent cooling in the
southeast EIO and widespread warming in the south-central and western
tropical Indian Ocean during the boreal summer monsoon season
(Fig. 1b). The strong zonal SST gradient strengthened the easterlies over
the EIO and the cross-equatorial flow, which extended vertically upward
into the mid-tropospheric levels (see Fig. 1b). Considering the dynamic
response of tropical circulation to equatorial heating anomalies, which
has been famously modeled by Matsuno (1966) and Gill (1980), we
examined near-equatorial heating anomalies using tropospheric tem­
perature tendency profiles due to moist processes and radiation during
the JJAS season of 2019. The vertical cross-section of the heating
anomalies (Fig. 8) shows an east-west dipole-like pattern with intense
anomalous radiative cooling over the eastern and moist convective
heating over the western part of EIO. Krishnan and Swapna (2009)
Fig. 8. Vertical section of temperature tendency anomalies (10− 5 K s− 1) due to
near-equatorial (averaged over 15◦ S–0◦ ) radiative cooling and moist heating in
JJAS 2019.
8
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
applied the theoretical model of Gill (1980) to describe the monsoon
circulation response during pIOD events. They noted that the strength­
ening of easterly wind anomalies over the EIO could be explained as a
combined response to anomalous heat source and heat sink over western
and eastern EIO, respectively. They explained this combined response as
a superposition of the equatorial Kelvin wave to the east of the heat
source and off-equatorial Rossby wave to the west of the heat sink
(Krishnan and Swapna, 2009). Furthermore, they noted that the
anomalous heating involving a combination of pIOD and strong north-
south monsoon heating generated a large-scale cyclonic anomaly to
the north of 15oN over South and Southeast Asia, which is also evident in
Fig. 4b. In fact, the large-scale pattern of positive (negative) PV anom­
alies to the north (south) of 15oN in Fig. 4b has resemblance with the
intensified off-equatorial Rossby waves noted by (Krishnan and Swapna,
2009; see their Fig. 9c). This large-scale pattern of increased PV can
reinforce precipitation anomalies over South Asia, support stratiform
heavy precipitating systems (Figs. 2c, 3), and generate teleconnections
influencing weather over North America and Europe (Beverley et al.,
2021; Wang et al., 2022). Furthemore, we notice that during 2019 the
SSTs were anomalously warm over the Arabian sea, especially during
the first and second IRE. Reduced upwelling along the Somali coast due
to weak south-westerlies during June resulted in warm Arabian sea
conditions, and the local evaporation and the moisture transport to­
wards west coast of India lead to increased precipitation over the
Western Ghats (Izumo et al., 2008; Vecchi and Harrison, 2004).
As the global surface temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse
gas concentrations, the global water vapor content also increases at
~7% per 0C of warming (Douville et al., 2022). While high precipitable
water is a necessary condition for the development of deep convection
(Poan et al., 2013), daily precipitation extremes are also strongly
correlated and scaled with vertically integrated atmospheric moisture
(Kunkel et al., 2020). By performing an empirical orthogonal functional
(EOF) analysis of JJAS (seasonal) mean vertically integrated water
vapor anomaly over South Asia from 1959 to 2022, we note that the
spatial pattern of the first EOF shows widespread enhancement in pre­
cipitable water over the entire South and Southeast Asia with high
loading extending from Western India towards Indonesian Islands and
equatorial West Pacific (Fig. 9a). The time-series of the first principal
component (PC1) captures a significant increasing trend along with the
periodically varying high and low amplitudes indicating the combined
influence of the warming climate and the dominant tropical Indo-Pacific
variability (Fig. 9b). The linear trend for the PC1 timeseries is significant
at 99% confidence level. Interestingly, the spatial pattern of the second
EOF is characterized by a well-defined east-west dipole pattern of
moisture anomalies over the EIO with increased moisture over the In­
dian subcontinent and a secondary maximum loading over the western
D.C. Ayantika et al.
Fig. 9. Spatial patterns of (a) EOF1 and (c) EOF2 of JJAS precipitable water. (b) PC1 and (d) PC2 time series corresponding to (a) and (c), respectively. Trend
(dashed line) is significant at 99% confidence intervals for PC1 but not significant for PC2 (checked using MK Test).
Indian region of Gujarat (Fig. 9c). The year-to-year variations of the
second mode (PC2, Fig. 9d) display large positive amplitudes on strong
pIOD years of 1961, 1994, and 2019, and fairly replicate the DMI time-
series of Fig. 1a. Further the detrended series of PC2 and DMI shows a
correlation of 0.62 on interannual timescales. Noticeably, the strongest
amplitude of positive moisture anomalies over Western India occurred
in the 2019 monsoon season. The reconstructed time-series of total
column moisture for both modes (Fig. S6a,b) reveal the dominance of
interannual variations in the backdrop of a continual increase in mois­
ture availability due to global warming. While global warming-led at­
mospheric moistening can intensify extreme precipitating events (Donat
et al., 2016), large-scale circulation patterns associated with modes of
climate variability like IOD and ENSO have a profound influence on the
variability of the monsoon rainstorms over India (Krishnan et al., 2023).
If modes of climate variability like IOD can modulate heavy pre­
cipitation over Western India, then the same should be discernable from
long-term records as well. Keeping this point in mind we analyzed the
long-term series of heavy rainfall over Gujarat and Maharashtra and the
associated large-scale features. The detrended seasonal (JAS) abundant
heavy rainfall day count for the period 1960–2020 from IMD is shown in
Fig. 10a. We categorize that the abundant heavy rainfall day occurs over
Western India when at least 10% of the grids record rainfall greater than
the ≥95th percentile rainfall for that grid point. From Fig. 10a we
observe that the seasonal abundant heavy rainfall day count crossed the
day count threshold of 21 days (mean + 1 standard deviation) for five
pure pIOD years (1961, 1983, 1994, 2006, 2019) and for five non-pIOD
years (1962, 1970, 1973, 2011, 2020). On calculating the spatio-
temporally aggregated rainfall over Western India for the abundant
heavy rainfall seasons surpassing the day count threshold (as shown in
Fig. 10a), we find that there is a 25% increase in the aggregated heavy
rainfall in pIOD years as compared to non-pIOD years.
The composite maps of large-scale ocean atmospheric conditions for
pIOD years with frequent widespread heavy rainfall over Western India
(Fig. 10b) shows a strong east-west cooling and warming pattern in
south equatorial Indian Ocean along with warming over Arabian Sea.
9
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
The low-level circulation is dominated by south-easterly wind anomalies
off Java Sumatra coast, strengthened equatorial easterlies and a pro­
nounced cyclonic circulation anomaly over Western India. Prominent
enhancements in precipitation are observed over Western India and
along the Western Ghats and monsoon trough region. The moisture
transport anomalies are decomposed into rotational and divergent
components following Behera et al. (1999) and shown in Fig. 10c,d. We
observe an intense moisture divergence from south-east equatorial In­
dian ocean, which acts as a source of moisture during these years and
feeds moisture into Western India. The rotational moisture transport
anomalies also demonstrate large-scale transport of moisture from
south-equatorial Indian ocean, across Arabian sea towards western
India. The influx of moisture supported by the seasonal ocean-
atmospheric conditions during pure pIOD years sustain deep convec­
tion and heavy precipitating events during intense rain spells.
4. Conclusions and implications
In the Indian Summer Monsoon season of 2019, a record-breaking
seasonal rainfall (58% above the climatological average) was wit­
nessed over the Indian states of Maharashtra (western part) and Gujarat
since 1901. Also, this season observed significant hydrological extremes
over Western India. Using in-situ observations, we note that these ex­
tremes were principally caused by three sustained IREs during the pe­
riods: 1) 28 June–12 July, 2) 24 July–11 August, 3) 1–14 September
2019, occurring in the backdrop of a severe pIOD evolution in EIO. This
study is aimed at investigating the linkage between the sub-seasonal
variations in heavily precipitating convective systems and the back­
ground flow of the Indian Summer Monsoon, modified by the seasonally
varying SST conditions in the Indian Ocean. During early to mid-June of
2019, pronounced subsidence was observed over peninsular India, west
coast and adjoining eastern Arabian Sea induced by El Nino/El Nino
Modoki in the equatorial Pacific Ocean together with a synoptic-scale
severe cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea (Gadgil et al., 2019; Sankar
et al., 2021) that led to inhibition of intense convection and heavy
D.C. Ayantika et al. Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209

Fig. 10. (a) Detrended series of JAS heavy rainfall day count (grey line) over Western India (68◦ E–75◦ E, 16◦ N–24.5◦ N) and occurrence of pIOD events (El Nino co-
occurrence: brown circles, no El Nino co-occurrence: blue circles). Heavy rainfall day: ≥ 95th percentile rainfall occurred at least at 10% of the grids of Western India.
Day count threshold (dotted line): mean + 1 × standard deviation). pIOD: JASO detrended DMI ≥ 0.75 standard deviation; El Nino: JAS detrended Nino3.4 SST index
(3-month running mean) ≥ 1 standard deviation. Abundant heavy rainfall and pIOD co-occurrence (years: 1961, 1983, 1994, 2006, 2019) composites of JAS
anomalous (b) SST (shading over ocean, ◦ C), rainfall (shading over India, mm d-1), and 850 hPa wind (arrows, m s− 1); (c) vertically integrated moist velocity
potential (shading, kg s− 1) and divergent moisture transport (arrows, kg m− 1 s− 1); (d) vertically integrated moist stream function (shading, kg s− 1) and rotational
moisture transport (arrows, kg m− 1 s− 1). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

rainfall over Western India. However, the IREs were triggered from late
June onwards and were dominated by large-scale organizations of
convection that extended eastward from Western India to Bay of Bengal
and further downstream up to western northwest Pacific. One of the
striking features is that the heavy-to-extreme rain incidences during
IREs were not only confined to Western India but also had a continental
span extending across central India, Bay of Bengal, and farther over
South China Sea. The IREs also co-occurred with an intense pIOD event
characterized by anomalous SST cooling (warming) in the southeastern
(western-central) EIO, alongside suppressed (enhanced) convection over
the eastern (western) EIO. The pIOD conditions started developing in the
EIO in late June of 2019 and continued throughout the rest of the
monsoon season. As the season advanced, the cooling intensified at the
eastern pole of the IOD, and an anomalous divergence center was
established over the eastern EIO. As illustrated in Fig. S7, the IOD
induced anomalous easterly moisture flux over the central EIO fed sur­
plus water vapor to the monsoon cross-equatorial flow, and thus sus­
tained the channel of moisture at 10–20 0N extending from the Arabian
Sea to the South China Sea during all the three IREs.
Enhanced moisture convergence forced by pIOD in congruence with
large-scale organized monsoonal rainband, in the backdrop of a globally
warm environment, tend to sustain the stratiform precipitating orga­
nized MCSs during the heavy rain periods. The top-heavy heating
structure of stratiform rain further induces continental-scale mid-level
cyclonic PV anomalies across South and Southeast Asia and a persistent
PV vortex over Western India. The significant mid-level cyclonic
anomalies together with strong ascent over Western India expedite
heavy/extreme precipitation over western Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Further, as the pIOD-cooling over the eastern EIO intensifies, the
moisture flux convergence and mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation
deepen and extend across entire South and Southeast Asia. This supports
frequent occurrence of heavy precipitation events over the South Asian
monsoon region in the background of large-scale organized deep con­
vection. We found that the percentage contribution of seasonally
abundant heavy rainfall events to spatiotemporally aggregated rainfall
over Western India was higher by 25% during pIOD years as compared
to non-pIOD years.
This study lays a positive framework for the IRE outlook suitable for
Western India through plausible insights into the large-scale ocean-at­
mospheric associations with the heavily precipitating MCSs that led to

10
D.C. Ayantika et al.
the wettest monsoon conditions during 2019 Indian Summer Monsoon
over Maharashtra and Gujarat since 1901. Further, potential impact of
stronger pIOD oceanic states in the Indian Ocean is highlighted from the
viewpoint of not only the moisture transport enhancement into Western
India, but also the organization of precipitating systems suitable for the
entire South Asian monsoon region. This study can provide some guid­
ance to hydrological flood extremes in the ecologically fragile regions of
South and Southeast Asia, given the current understanding on the
recurring flood-producing rains over the Western India in the recent
years (Dhiman et al., 2018; Mujumdar et al., 2020). It also entails the
implicative indications emerging from the recent investigations about
the rising number of extreme pIOD events in the tropical Indian Ocean
(Cai et al., 2014), and heavy rainfall events over the Indian subcontinent
(Krishnan et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021) in association with warming
climate.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
D.C. Ayantika: Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision,
Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. K.M. Sumit: Data
curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Software, Visualization,
Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. R. Krishnan:
Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – re­
view & editing. R. Vellore: Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing. P. Guhathakurta: Data curation.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
IMD ground-station-observed rainfall data can be procured through
IMD data supply portal (https://dsp.imdpune.gov.in/index.php). De­
tails of the data procurement procedure, data charges, and documents
required for different types of users can be found at https://dsp.
imdpune.gov.in/data_supply_service.php. The daily precipitation data
is publicly available for IMD gridded data (https://www.imdpune.gov.
in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html), GPM IMERG fin
al precipitation product (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/GPM_3IM
ERGDF_06/summary), GPM DPR precipitation profiles (https://disc.
gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/GPM_3DPR_ASC_07/summary and https://disc.
gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/GPM_3DPR_DES_07/summary). The GPM DPR
SLH data is available from https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/GPM
_3HSLH_DAY_07/summary. Other datasets used are freely available for
ERSSTv5 (https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/netc
df/), ERA5 meteorological fields (https://cds.climate.copernicus.
eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels), NOAA OLR (htt
ps://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/climate-data-
records/outgoing-longwave-radiation-daily).
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the Director, Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, for providing support. IITM is fully
funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India.
This work is a part of the Ph.D. dissertation of the second author. Au­
thors acknowledge the Editor and anonymous reviewers for their valu­
able comments that helped to improve the paper.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107209.
11
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107209
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