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Q1FY24 Earnings Review

Institutional Research
India I Chemicals
21 August, 2023
Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights NIFTY 50: 19,394

BSE Sensex: 65,216


Recovery seemed visible but still a bit away
Q1 again was a challenging quarter for the chemicals/ agrochemicals sector with YoY
Stock price performance (%)*
performance impacting severely. Although, it was expected that RMs decline has Company Name 1 Mth 3 Mth 6 Mth 1 Yr
stabilised, the decline continued during Q1 as China dumping continued exacerbating Aarti Industries (3.3) (8.1) (16.0) (36.1)
the situation. Companies continued to benefit from lower operating costs including Anupam Rasayan 0.5 (17.8) 57.6 31.0
power & fuel and lower logistics expenses. Across the board, chemical companies’ Atul Ltd. (3.4) 2.4 (7.1) (26.0)
exports performance remained subdued. Agrochemicals, on the other hand reported Deepak Nitrite 1.4 3.4 11.2 (1.7)
a mixed bag with some companies reporting good YoY growth while others showing Dhanuka Agritech 0.3 15.6 14.4 9.9
degrowth however generally margin pressure was observed. Fluorochemicals which Galaxy Surfactants (1.6) 0.8 9.6 (15.2)
were firm till now too experienced demand pressure from exports market due to Gujarat Fluorochem 1.8 (14.6) (6.2) (19.9)

global inventory destocking. Multiple corrections in domestic Soda Ash prices exerted Navin Fluorine 1.7 (2.1) 6.7 3.9
PI Industries 1.5 14.0 13.3 12.4
pricing and margin pressure while capacity additions and demand weakness led to
SRF 4.0 (5.5) (0.8) (6.3)
significant impact on Caustic Soda players with ECUs dipping to sub-Rs30,000/ MT
UPL (7.7) (12.3) (23.9) (23.8)
levels. Generally, managements indicated that current muted environment is Vinati Organics (0.1) (4.0) (3.3) (17.4)
expected to persist in Q2 with largely similar to Q1 performance while recovery is Source: Centrum Broking, *as on 21 August 2023
expected in 2HFY24E. Despite the recent challenging environment, capex plans
remain unhindered which still instills the sectoral long-term growth story. Rating and Target prices
Company Name Rating Price* (Rs) TP (Rs)
Management comments on operating environment Aarti Industries BUY 455 561
 RM environment – It was expected that high cost inventories were over in Q4FY23 Anupam Rasayan SELL 984 820
however due to substantial dumping from China at lower prices, the inventories again Atul Ltd. SELL 6,775 6,035
became high cost which is expected to impact in near-term. However, in recent times Deepak Nitrite ADD 2,006 2,230
prices of chemicals, building blocks have stabilised which shall benefit in subsequent Dhanuka Agritech BUY 778 895
quarters. Galaxy Surfactants BUY 2,635 3.000
Gujarat Fluorochem BUY 2,829 3,469
 Energy/ power/ coal costs – Utility costs have been moderating over the past couple Navin Fluorine BUY 4,463 5,267
of quarters and further benefit is expected to accrue in coming quarter too. Logistics PI Industries ADD 3,731 4,238
costs have been now normalised. SRF ADD 2,301 2,356
 Exports – Global inventory destocking has been hurting chemical companies, in turn UPL BUY 586 949
impacting Indian counterparts in their exports. Global chemical companies have Vinati Organics SELL 1,816 1625
indicated that they expect recovery from early 2024 which signifies exports recovery Source: Centrum Broking, *as on 21 August 2023

for Indian chemical companies to start simultaneously. Nifty 50 vs NSE Midcap


 CRAMS/ CSM/ Fluorochemicals – CRAMS/ CSM other than fluorochem reported mixed 130
bag while fluorochemicals players saw the pressure from global inventory destocking 120
NSE Midcap
which shall alleviate from Q2 onwards. 110
 Agrochem – Agrochem companies reported a mixed bag with some companies 100 NIFTY 50
reporting good growth while others degrowth. Some companies were affected due to 90
delayed monsoon, while some were benefited from low inventories. Q1 and Q2 are 80
placement quarters hence the actual picture shall emerge post returns start coming in Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23
and how the balance sheet looks like post 1HFY24E results. Source: Bloomberg

Operating performance of Chemical companies in Q1FY24


 Total 37 (excl. Tata Chemicals) – Gross margins contracted 234bps QoQ and by 148bps
YoY signifying lowering RM cost inflation. EBITDA margins contracted 287bps QoQ and
343bps YoY signifying that impact primarily from RM deflation while benefits from opex
such as lower energy, fuel, logistics costs are also being observed
 Large 17 (excl. Tata Chemicals) – Gross margins contracted 273bps QoQ and 191bps
YoY while EBITDA margins contracted substantially by 300bps QoQ and 401bps YoY
 Mid-size 13 – Gross margins contacted 26bps QoQ and expanded 20bps YoY, while
EBITDA margins contracted 171bps QoQ and 123bps YoY
 Small 7 – Gross margins contracted 204bps QoQ and 404bps YoY, EBITDA margins
contracted 383bps QoQ and 322bps YoY
Chemicals

Operating performance of Agrochemical companies in Q1FY24


 Total 10 (excl. UPL) – Gross margins contracted 338bps QoQ and 473bps YoY while Rohit Nagraj
Research Associate, Chemicals
EBITDA margins expanded 26bps QoQ while contracted 278bps YoY +91-022-42159645
rohit.nagraj@centrum.co.in

Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Peer comparison
Mkt Cap CAGR (FY22-25E) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Company
(Rs bn) Sales EBITDA EPS FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E
Aarti Industries 164.1 5.5 (3.4) (11.8) 31.5 33.6 21.1 18.3 18.3 13.0 11.6 9.9 14.1
Anupam Rasayan 105.7 32.0 30.6 27.3 57.0 43.9 32.8 17.1 14.6 11.7 8.8 9.5 11.5
Atul 200.3 5.6 2.9 (0.6) 40.3 47.0 34.9 26.7 27.5 20.9 11.3 9.1 11.2
Deepak Nitrite 272.5 12.7 10.0 10.3 33.5 36.7 19.9 22.1 23.9 13.4 22.9 17.5 26.4
Dhanuka Agritech (YoY relevant) 35.8 12.8 11.8 9.2 14.5 14.2 12.5 12.2 10.5 8.7 23.1 20.7 19.9
Galaxy Surfactants 93.9 5.8 12.7 13.1 24.1 26.4 24.2 16.2 16.7 15.2 22.0 17.2 16.4
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 310.6 18.6 20.8 17.3 23.1 31.5 24.1 15.6 19.2 15.2 27.2 16.2 18.0
Navin Fluorine 220.9 34.2 41.7 35.4 60.0 49.6 34.5 42.4 31.6 23.3 18.6 19.0 22.7
PI Industries (YoY relevant) 565.3 21.6 26.7 28.1 48.2 39.6 33.4 36.8 30.2 24.4 18.4 19.0 19.1
SRF 680.9 12.1 11.1 10.0 29.5 33.3 25.4 19.1 19.9 15.9 22.9 17.1 19.0
UPL (YoY relevant) 439.1 10.3 7.3 7.4 13.1 13.7 11.4 6.3 6.1 5.5 13.1 11.0 12.1
Vinati Organics 187.1 15.5 14.3 13.5 40.7 46.2 36.9 31.3 36.2 28.6 22.6 16.9 18.2
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 2


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Index
Chemical Sector Margin Performance ................................................................................................... 4
Q1FY24 Financial Performance.............................................................................................................. 6
FY23 Financial Performance .................................................................................................................. 7
FY23 Export Performance ...................................................................................................................... 8
Change in FY24E consensus estimates post Q1FY24 results.................................................................. 9
Aarti Industries .................................................................................................................................... 10
Aether Industries ................................................................................................................................. 13
Alkyl Amines ........................................................................................................................................ 16
Ami Organics........................................................................................................................................ 17
Anupam Rasayan ................................................................................................................................. 19
Archean Chemicals .............................................................................................................................. 21
Atul ...................................................................................................................................................... 23
BASF ..................................................................................................................................................... 25
Bayer CropScience ............................................................................................................................... 27
Best Agrolife ........................................................................................................................................ 28
Chemcon Speciality Chemicals ............................................................................................................ 30
Chemplast Sanmar ............................................................................................................................... 31
Clean Science and Technology............................................................................................................. 34
DCM Shriram ....................................................................................................................................... 36
DCW ..................................................................................................................................................... 40
Deepak Nitrite ..................................................................................................................................... 42
Dhanuka Agritech ................................................................................................................................ 45
Fine Organic ......................................................................................................................................... 47
Galaxy Surfactants ............................................................................................................................... 48
GHCL .................................................................................................................................................... 51
Gujarat Fluorochemicals ...................................................................................................................... 52
Heranba Industries .............................................................................................................................. 55
Hikal ..................................................................................................................................................... 56
India Glycols ........................................................................................................................................ 58
India Pesticides .................................................................................................................................... 61
Insecticides India ................................................................................................................................. 63
Jubilant Ingrevia .................................................................................................................................. 65
Laxmi Organic Industries ..................................................................................................................... 67
Meghmani Finechem ........................................................................................................................... 69
Meghmani Organics............................................................................................................................. 71
Navin Fluorine ..................................................................................................................................... 73
Neogen Chemicals ............................................................................................................................... 76
NOCIL ................................................................................................................................................... 79
Oriental Aromatics............................................................................................................................... 80
PI Industries ......................................................................................................................................... 82
Privi Speciality...................................................................................................................................... 85
Punjab Chemicals and Crop Protection ............................................................................................... 87
Rallis India............................................................................................................................................ 89
Rossari Biotech .................................................................................................................................... 91
SH Kelkar.............................................................................................................................................. 93
Sharda Cropchem ................................................................................................................................ 96
SRF ....................................................................................................................................................... 98
Sudarshan Chemical .......................................................................................................................... 102
Sumitomo Chemical........................................................................................................................... 104
Tata Chemicals................................................................................................................................... 106
Tatva Chintan Pharma ....................................................................................................................... 109
UPL .................................................................................................................................................... 112
Vinati Organics................................................................................................................................... 115
Vishnu Chemicals ............................................................................................................................... 117

Centrum Institutional Research 3


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Chemical Sector Margin Performance


Overall Chemicals sector performance
Q1FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY23 Chg. QoQ (bps) Chg. YoY (bps)
Category - No. of companies
GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM Opex EBITDA GM Opex EBITDA
Large - 18 (Incl. Tata Chemicals) 40.6 20.4 13.9 43.4 20.7 16.9 42.5 19.7 17.9 (273) (26) (300) (191) 68 (401)
Mid-Size - 13 49.3 21.7 19.5 49.6 21.5 21.2 49.1 21.8 20.8 (26) 17 (171) 20 (8) (123)
Small - 7 44.2 17.5 19.5 46.3 16.7 23.3 48.3 19.5 22.7 (204) 78 (383) (404) (205) (322)
Total - 37(Excl. Tata Chemicals) 42.3 20.6 15.1 44.7 20.7 18.0 43.8 20.1 18.6 (234) (15) (287) (148) 48 (343)
Total - 38 (Incl. Tata Chemicals) 47.3 23.9 16.3 48.9 24.0 18.5 47.6 22.6 19.3 (162) (13) (216) (27) 124 (297)
Agrochemicals - 10 (Excl. UPL) 30.9 13.1 13.3 34.3 14.4 13.0 35.7 14.2 16.1 (338) (131) 25 (473) (110) (278)
Agrochemicals - 11 (Incl. UPL) 45.8 21.9 13.8 39.2 16.2 15.6 48.9 21.3 18.4 659 578 (179) (307) 68 (458)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Large Chemical Companies’ performance


Large Chemical Companies (FY23 Q1FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY23 Chg. QoQ (bps) Chg. YoY (bps)
Rev. > Rs25bn) GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM Opex EBITDA GM Opex EBITDA
Aarti Industries 39.7 18.4 14.1 41.9 20.1 15.2 42.5 19.4 17.5 (223) (172) (107) (281) (96) (334)
Atul 46.5 22.9 15.4 45.8 25.4 12.5 48.5 26.6 15.8 67 (247) 292 (201) (365) (35)
BASF 16.6 7.8 5.9 15.4 7.8 4.1 17.8 7.5 8.0 121 3 178 (117) 30 (213)
Chemplast Sanmar 27.2 26.9 (3.5) 34.8 22.9 8.5 35.9 19.6 13.8 (758) 396 (1,196) (870) 726 (1,722)
DCM Shriram 44.3 29.6 6.0 54.7 33.5 12.7 51.5 28.7 15.3 (1,037) (386) (676) (719) 87 (932)
DCW 52.0 30.8 11.7 52.3 28.5 16.9 47.2 25.7 15.8 (31) 224 (521) 471 510 (414)
Deepak Nitrite 30.8 14.2 11.9 34.8 13.1 17.7 33.9 12.6 17.3 (403) 103 (588) (307) 154 (543)
Fine Organic 40.7 9.4 25.8 49.6 10.4 33.9 43.5 11.4 28.7 (890) (105) (812) (289) (202) (290)
Galaxy Surfactants 32.4 11.7 13.1 32.4 12.1 13.8 30.8 12.7 12.8 (0) (33) (72) 158 (96) 31
GHCL 62.3 30.0 29.3 64.3 30.0 31.1 56.7 22.5 31.0 (205) (1) (183) 560 745 (167)
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 71.4 35.0 28.8 72.6 30.8 36.0 72.7 32.4 34.4 (118) 418 (720) (129) 258 (563)
India Glycols 42.2 24.4 14.5 47.7 28.0 15.5 34.3 24.2 7.7 (549) (358) (99) 787 17 678
Jubilant Ingrevia 48.8 29.3 10.9 43.4 27.0 8.9 47.7 28.6 12.1 540 229 194 107 66 (123)
Laxmi Organic Industries 34.9 19.6 10.5 33.4 21.2 8.3 39.5 22.4 13.3 141 (159) 226 (461) (285) (273)
Meghmani Organics 27.4 25.6 (5.2) 41.6 22.5 13.6 44.4 22.4 16.8 (1,421) 309 (1,876) (1,704) 322 (2,203)
PI Industries 46.5 12.9 24.5 44.8 14.3 21.9 43.8 13.4 22.4 169 (139) 259 267 (43) 209
SRF 49.1 21.7 20.9 50.0 19.7 24.7 52.3 21.8 25.5 (95) 199 (380) (324) (9) (469)
Tata Chemicals 83.2 47.6 24.7 80.5 48.2 21.9 80.1 44.5 25.4 273 (59) 283 311 310 (68)
Total (Including Tata Chemicals) 47.0 24.5 15.5 48.9 24.8 17.7 47.3 22.9 18.9 (187) (28) (212) (25) 164 (333)
Total (Excluding Tata Chemicals) 40.6 20.4 13.9 43.4 20.7 16.9 42.5 19.7 17.9 (273) (26) (300) (191) 68 (401)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Mid-size Chemical Companies’ performance


Mid-Size Chemical Companies Q1FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY23 Chg. QoQ (bps) Chg. YoY (bps)
(FY23 Rev. < Rs25bn and >
GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM Opex EBITDA GM Opex EBITDA
Rs10bn)
Alkyl Amines 44.7 20.5 18.1 46.4 22.1 18.7 50.9 20.8 24.5 (169) (158) (62) (624) (28) (640)
Anupam Rasayan 57.8 26.7 26.2 50.9 23.0 24.4 60.0 27.1 28.7 696 373 180 (214) (36) (245)
Archean Chemical 100.8 46.1 48.8 106.6 49.3 50.8 98.8 56.1 40.2 (575) (321) (208) 204 (994) 852
Hikal 56.1 27.8 13.0 48.7 22.0 16.1 40.2 22.8 6.0 736 580 (318) 1,584 492 694
Meghmani Finechem 39.7 14.2 20.9 45.2 13.7 27.5 55.1 14.3 35.1 (547) 56 (659) (1,533) (5) (1,418)
Navin Fluorine 58.7 19.4 23.2 59.3 19.9 28.9 54.1 16.5 24.9 (57) (54) (570) 460 291 (168)
NOCIL 42.8 23.1 13.7 40.6 23.0 12.5 46.4 22.0 19.9 219 7 124 (366) 110 (617)
Privi Speciality 37.9 20.2 13.4 38.9 25.8 8.1 41.6 21.1 15.1 (98) (560) 533 (361) (88) (169)
Rossari Biotech 29.5 9.4 14.1 29.6 9.5 13.4 28.5 9.8 13.3 (8) (10) 62 95 (40) 78
SH Kelkar 44.0 14.6 15.8 41.1 14.8 14.2 39.7 14.8 13.2 291 (16) 158 424 (16) 257
Sudarshan 45.0 25.1 11.5 42.0 22.7 12.3 40.4 24.4 7.5 302 241 (76) 463 70 402
Vinati 47.6 16.4 25.3 50.3 15.5 30.3 45.5 15.1 25.9 (267) 88 (496) 204 125 (56)
Vishnu Chemicals 46.3 24.7 17.0 49.0 27.1 18.2 42.6 23.5 16.2 (271) (235) (123) 371 127 76
Total 49.3 21.7 19.5 49.6 21.5 21.2 49.1 21.8 20.8 (26) 17 (171) 20 (8) (123)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Small Chemical Companies’ performance


Small Chemical Companies (FY23 Q1FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY23 Chg. QoQ (bps) Chg. YoY (bps)
Rev. < Rs10bn) GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM Opex EBITDA GM Opex EBITDA
Aether Industries 52.3 19.2 27.8 52.6 15.3 32.4 48.1 17.1 26.5 (35) 389 (462) 414 206 131
Ami Organics 44.8 17.5 17.7 43.6 15.6 21.9 48.8 22.4 17.5 119 193 (425) (398) (488) 22
Chemcon Specialty 24.5 9.7 9.7 32.2 8.1 17.8 57.3 13.4 37.6 (777) 162 (812) (3,281) (371) (2,787)
Clean Science 61.4 14.7 40.5 70.4 16.1 48.5 61.0 17.7 39.0 (904) (136) (800) 40 (296) 146
Neogen Chemicals 44.3 19.5 17.0 40.1 17.8 16.0 44.8 21.4 16.7 420 166 105 (49) (197) 34
Oriental Aromatics 25.7 18.3 0.5 32.3 20.9 4.7 31.6 19.3 7.0 (661) (255) (425) (589) (92) (656)
Tatva Chintan Pharma 49.3 20.5 18.6 39.8 18.4 13.1 54.9 28.1 17.2 954 206 553 (556) (760) 142
Total 44.2 17.5 19.5 46.3 16.7 23.3 48.3 19.5 22.7 (204) 78 (383) (404) (205) (322)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Note: Large – FY23 Revenues > Rs25bn, Mid-Size – FY23 Revenues between Rs10bn to Rs25bn, Small – FY23 Revenues <Rs10bn *Opex – Opex as % of revenues

Centrum Institutional Research 4


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Agrochemical Companies’ performance


Q1FY24 Q4FY23 Q1FY23 Chg. QoQ (bps) Chg. YoY (bps)
Agrochemicals Companies
GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM % *Opex % EBITDA% GM Opex EBITDA GM Opex EBITDA
Bayer CropScience 42.7 12.9 24.4 51.0 16.6 20.9 48.5 17.2 23.7 (834) (373) 346 (579) (430) 71
Best Agrolife 29.9 8.7 21.2 19.0 16.2 2.8 21.2 7.1 14.2 1,094 (750) 1,844 868 164 702
Dhanuka Agritech 32.8 11.8 11.8 38.2 9.5 21.0 32.8 11.5 13.1 (534) 222 (917) 6 30 (130)
Heranba Industries 22.2 17.3 (1.5) 33.3 18.9 7.8 31.6 14.7 12.7 (1,112) (161) (929) (942) 253 (1,416)
India Pesticides 34.8 18.9 11.3 45.0 19.3 21.3 49.7 20.4 25.5 (1,015) (41) (1,002) (1,494) (150) (1,422)
Insecticides India 12.4 9.0 7.1 12.4 14.6 (9.4) 23.9 9.0 10.4 (6) (559) 1,650 (1,157) (3) (331)
Punjab Chemicals 35.3 14.3 13.4 38.8 16.7 10.9 37.1 16.6 13.0 (348) (240) 256 (179) (233) 42
Rallis 38.5 16.0 14.1 26.8 27.6 (12.5) 35.8 15.1 13.1 1,174 (1,163) 2,656 264 85 100
Sharda Cropchem 8.7 16.6 (9.3) 31.6 9.1 21.5 25.4 18.0 6.4 (2,283) 751 (3,077) (1,665) (136) (1,571)
Sumitomo Chemicals 31.1 11.7 11.2 31.3 10.6 12.4 35.1 10.3 19.0 (19) 111 (122) (403) 141 (788)
UPL 56.2 28.1 14.2 40.7 16.7 16.4 56.9 25.6 19.8 1,543 1,141 (223) (75) 254 (563)
Total (Including UPL) 45.8 21.9 13.8 39.2 16.2 15.6 48.9 21.3 18.4 659 578 (179) (307) 68 (458)
Total (Excluding UPL) 30.9 13.1 13.3 34.3 14.4 13.0 35.7 14.2 16.1 (338) (131) 25 (473) (110) (278)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Bloomberg vs Actuals for Q1FY24


Chemicals/ Agrochemicals Bloomberg Consensus % Chg. From Actuals
Q1FY24 (Rs mn) Rev. EBITDA PAT EBITDA % Rev. EBITDA PAT
Aarti Industries 17,496 1,884 752 10.8 (19.2) 6.2 (5.6)
Aether Industries 1,617 494 304 30.6 (0.4) (9.3) (1.6)
Anupam Rasayan 3,933 1,002 427 25.5 (1.8) 1.2 (9.6)
Atul 12,376 1,998 1,321 16.1 (4.5) (8.7) (21.7)
Chemplast Sanmar 11,604 923 335 8.0 (14.1) (137.4) -
Clean Science & Technology 2,194 943 709 43.0 (14.3) (19.3) (16.8)
Deepak Nitrite 19,748 3,171 2,102 16.1 (10.5) (33.8) (28.7)
Fine Organic 5,754 1,457 1,188 25.3 (4.9) (3.1) (16.0)
Galaxy Surfactants 9,830 1,240 815 12.6 (4.2) (0.6) (7.8)
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 12,967 2,940 2,174 22.7 (6.7) 18.3 (7.4)
Jubilant Ingrevia 10,988 1,099 616 10.0 (2.2) 6.2 (6.3)
Laxmi Organics 6,400 597 236 9.3 14.6 29.5 62.6
Navin Fluorine 4,834 1,499 1,080 31.0 1.6 (23.8) (43.0)
NOCIL 3,652 471 265 12.9 8.6 15.5 27.5
PI Industries (YoY relevant) 17,772 4,086 3,236 23.0 7.5 14.5 18.3
Rallis India 8,782 1,039 607 11.8 (11.0) 5.9 3.7
Rossari Biotech 4,751 730 - 15.4 (13.6) (21.0) -
SRF 37,059 8,535 4,862 23.0 (9.9) (18.4) (26.1)
Sudarshan Chemical 5,881 614 167 10.4 3.4 13.9 1,502.0
Sumitomo Chemical 8,785 1,476 1,071 16.8 (17.6) (45.3) (42.3)
Tata Chemicals 46,630 11,380 6,118 24.4 (9.5) (8.3) (14.5)
Tatva Chintan 1,239 161 96 13.0 (7.7) 32.3 (1.0)
UPL (YoY relevant) 1,03,378 19,021 4,844 18.4 (13.3) (33.1) (65.7)
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Centrum Institutional Research 5


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Q1FY24 Financial Performance


Q1FY24 Chemical Companies’ Financial Performance
Chemicals Q1FY24 % chg. YoY % chg. QoQ
Company Name Revenues EBITDA EBITDA % PAT Revenues EBITDA PAT Revenues EBITDA PAT
Aarti Industries 14,140 2,000 14.1 710 (12.2) (29.0) (47.6) (14.6) (20.6) (52.3)
Aether Industries 1,611 448 27.8 299 0.7 5.7 (2.3) (12.4) (24.8) (20.5)
Alkyl Amines 4,098 740 18.1 498 (13.5) (36.1) (39.2) (0.5) (3.8) 2.5
Ami Organics 1,424 252 17.7 166 8.7 10.0 11.4 (23.6) (38.4) (39.0)
Anupam Rasayan 3,864 1,014 26.2 386 12.5 2.8 (2.8) (19.5) (13.6) (31.9)
Archean Chemical 3,431 1,673 48.8 1,265 (14.3) 3.8 49.9 s(10.3) (13.9) (7.3)
Atul 11,820 1,823 15.4 1,034 (20.0) (21.8) (37.1) (1.1) 22.0 10.5
BASF 33,747 1,978 5.9 1,127 (13.2) (36.3) (42.7) 3.0 48.1 36.8
Chemcon Specialty 793 77 9.7 59 (11.3) (77.1) (76.9) 0.3 (45.4) (43.8)
Chemplast Sanmar 9,964 (345) (3.5) (640) (29.4) - - (13.1) - -
Clean Science 1,881 761 40.5 590 (19.6) (16.6) (6.2) (13.3) (27.6) (26.9)
DCM Shriram 27,801 1,660 6.0 566 (2.5) (61.9) (77.7) 2.2 (52.1) (69.7)
DCW 4,380 512 11.7 100 (43.0) (57.9) (65.9) (25.5) (48.5) (71.7)
Deepak Nitrite 17,683 2,098 11.9 1,499 (14.1) (41.1) (36.1) (9.8) (39.7) (35.9)
Fine Organic 5,472 1,412 25.8 998 (26.8) (34.2) (37.5) (8.3) (30.2) (33.2)
Galaxy Surfactants 9,418 1,232 13.1 752 (18.7) (16.8) (25.1) (3.4) (8.4) (16.9)
GHCL 10,169 2,979 29.3 4,263 (25.5) (29.5) 21.6 (9.1) (14.5) 70.0
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 12,093 3,479 28.8 2,012 (9.3) (24.2) (34.3) (17.8) (34.3) (39.4)
Hikal 3,881 503 13.0 69 2.5 120.6 (177.5) (28.8) (42.8) (80.8)
India Glycols 6,890 1,000 14.5 511 (14.7) 60.0 76.2 11.3 4.2 26.8
Jubilant Ingrevia 10,750 1,167 10.9 577 (7.8) (17.2) (27.3) (6.1) 14.3 10.3
Laxmi Organic Industries 7,336 773 10.5 383 (3.0) (23.0) (40.5) 0.1 27.3 58.3
Meghmani Finechem 4,549 952 20.9 317 (8.8) (45.6) (68.0) (19.1) (38.5) (58.7)
Meghmani Organics 4,258 (221) (5.2) (345) (45.6) - - (25.8) - -
Navin Fluorine 4,912 1,142 23.2 615 23.6 15.2 (17.4) (29.5) (43.4) (54.9)
Neogen Chemicals 1,649 281 17.0 97 11.5 13.8 (12.6) (19.1) (13.8) (32.2)
NOCIL 3,967 544 13.7 338 (22.0) (46.2) (48.5) 1.0 11.0 19.0
Oriental Aromatics 1,957 9 0.5 (60) (16.2) (94.5) - 0.2 (90.2) -
PI Industries 19,104 4,678 24.5 3,829 23.8 35.4 45.9 22.0 36.5 36.5
Privi Speciality 4,087 547 13.4 46 5.1 (6.7) (79.5) 2.5 70.4 -
Rossari Biotech 4,106 577 14.1 292 (5.5) 0.0 1.7 1.0 5.7 0.7
SH Kelkar 4,455 704 15.8 267 7.3 28.2 23.6 (5.7) 4.8 1,060.9
SRF 33,384 6,963 20.9 3,593 (14.3) (30.0) (40.9) (11.6) (25.3) (36.1)
Sudarshan 6,081 699 11.5 2,670 9.7 68.8 3,660.6 (12.0) (17.5) 719.0
Tata Chemicals 42,180 10,430 24.7 5,230 5.6 2.8 (11.8) (4.3) 8.1 (26.4)
Tatva Chintan Pharma 1,144 213 18.6 95 29.4 40.1 (3.1) (8.1) 30.7 (44.1)
Vinati 4,310 1,090 25.3 832 (14.9) (16.7) (17.8) (14.4) (28.4) (27.9)
Vishnu Chemicals 3,007 511 17.0 286 (16.3) (12.3) (16.1) (10.5) (16.5) (19.7)
Total 3,45,796 56,355 16.3 35,326 (9.9) (23.7) (22.1) (6.5) (17.5) (17.5)
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Q1FY24 Agrochemical Companies’ Financial Performance


Agrochemicals Q1FY24 % chg. YoY % chg. QoQ
Company Name Revenues EBITDA EBITDA % PAT Revenues EBITDA PAT Revenues EBITDA PAT
Bayer Cropscience 17,396 4,246 24.4 3,285 4.3 7.5 8.6 77.1 106.3 107.3
Best Agrolife 6,122 1,300 21.2 905 32.0 97.3 - 141.1 1,731.0 -
Dhanuka Agritech 3,691 436 11.8 329 (6.0) (15.3) (33.0) (0.6) (44.0) (49.6)
Heranba Industries 2,752 (40) (1.5) (56) (24.0) - - 5.8 - -
India Pesticides 2,014 227 11.3 155 (7.8) (59.2) (62.3) 1.6 (46.2) (48.7)
Insecticides India 6,400 456 7.1 291 14.1 (22.1) (24.0) 112.0 - -
Punjab Chemicals 2,814 378 13.4 219 3.4 6.8 7.9 44.3 78.3 584.4
Rallis 7,820 1,100 14.1 630 (9.4) (2.4) (6.7) 49.6 - -
Sharda Cropchem 6,378 (593) (9.3) (886) (22.6) - - (57.0) - -
Sumitomo Chemicals 7,242 808 11.2 618 (26.5) (56.9) (55.2) 11.2 0.2 (14.3)
UPL 89,630 12,730 14.2 1,660 (17.2) (40.7) (81.1) (45.9) (53.2) (79.0)
Total 1,52,259.0 21,048.0 13.8 7,150.0 (12.6) (34.4) (56.1) (30.1) (38.1) (41.6)
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Centrum Institutional Research 6


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

FY23 Financial Performance


FY23 Chemical Companies Financial Performance
Chemicals FY23 FY22 % chg. YoY
Company Name Revenues EBITDA EBITDA % PAT Revenues EBITDA EBITDA % PAT Revenues EBITDA PAT
Aarti Industries 66,190 10,892 16.5 5,460 58,230 9,190 15.8 5,065 13.7 18.5 7.8
Aether Industries 6,511 1,862 28.6 1,304 5,900 1,681 28.5 1,089 10.4 10.8 19.7
Alkyl Amines 16,823 3,431 20.4 2,287 15,428 3,265 21.2 2,249 9.0 5.1 1.7
Ami Organics 6,167 1,226 19.9 833 5,201 1,052 20.2 719 18.6 16.5 15.9
Anupam Rasayan 16,019 4,314 26.9 1,808 10,660 2,970 27.9 1,522 50.3 45.3 18.8
Archean Chemical 14,411 6,340 44.0 3,826 11,304 4,672 41.3 1,886 27.5 35.7 102.9
Atul 54,275 7,749 14.3 5,141 50,809 9,114 17.9 6,043 6.8 (15.0) (14.9)
Balaji Amines 23,554 6,091 25.9 3,255 23,204 6,301 27.2 3,684 1.5 (3.3) (11.6)
BASF 135,188 6,866 5.1 4,029 129,696 9,114 7.0 5,948 4.2 (24.7) (32.3)
Chemcon Specialty 3,029 707 23.3 551 2,571 816 31.7 628 17.8 (13.4) (12.3)
Chemplast Sanmar 49,411 4,681 9.5 1,524 58,920 11,968 20.3 6,486 (16.1) (60.9) (76.5)
Clean Science 9,358 4,021 43.0 2,952 6,775 2,999 44.3 2,285 38.1 34.1 29.2
DCM Shriram 115,470 16,064 13.9 9,108 96,274 17,964 18.7 10,674 19.9 (10.6) (14.7)
DCW 26,338 4,285 16.3 1,919 24,547 3,248 13.2 1,075 7.3 31.9 78.5
Deepak Nitrite 79,721 12,894 16.2 8,520 68,022 16,036 23.6 10,666 17.2 (19.6) (20.1)
Fine Organic 30,231 8,311 27.5 6,181 18,763 3,645 19.4 2,596 61.1 128.0 138.1
Galaxy Surfactants 44,452 5,683 12.8 3,810 36,857 4,007 10.9 2,628 20.6 41.8 45.0
GHCL 45,454 14,811 32.6 11,158 30,521 7,263 23.8 4,460 48.9 103.9 150.2
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 56,847 20,472 36.0 13,288 39,536 11,976 30.3 7,832 43.8 70.9 69.7
Hikal 20,230 2,571 12.7 803 19,427 3,406 17.5 1,605 4.1 (24.5) (50.0)
India Glycols 26,509 2,955 11.1 1,410 28,683 2,552 8.9 3,399 (7.6) 15.8 (58.5)
Jubilant Ingrevia 47,727 5,471 11.5 3,075 49,144 8,318 16.9 4,767 (2.9) (34.2) (35.5)
Laxmi Organic Industries 27,966 2,445 8.7 1,246 30,843 3,676 11.9 2,574 (9.3) (33.5) (51.6)
Meghmani Finechem 21,884 6,889 31.5 3,533 15,509 5,095 32.9 2,528 41.1 35.2 39.8
Meghmani Organics 25,526 3,410 13.4 2,377 24,985 3,785 15.1 3,036 2.2 (9.9) (21.7)
Navin Fluorine 20,774 5,503 26.5 3,752 14,534 3,548 24.4 2,631 42.9 55.1 42.6
Neogen Chemicals 6,862 1,116 16.3 500 4,873 866 17.8 446 40.8 28.9 12.1
NOCIL 16,166 2,482 15.4 1,487 15,713 2,826 18.0 1,760 2.9 (12.2) (15.5)
Oriental Aromatics 8,491 542 6.4 197 8,688 925 10.6 533 (2.3) (41.4) (63.0)
PI Industries 64,920 15,421 23.8 12,295 52,995 11,424 21.6 8,438 22.5 35.0 45.7
Privi Speciality 16,078 1,859 11.6 222 14,037 1,938 13.8 974 14.5 (4.1) (77.2)
Rossari Biotech 16,559 2,230 13.5 1,073 14,830 1,834 12.4 977 11.7 21.6 9.8
SH Kelkar 16,865 2,173 12.9 612 15,642 2,146 13.7 1,486 7.8 1.3 (58.8)
SRF 148,703 35,292 23.7 21,623 124,337 31,032 25.0 18,889 19.6 13.7 14.5
Sudarshan 23,017 2,106 9.1 448 22,008 2,748 12.5 1,300 4.6 (23.4) (65.5)
Tata Chemicals 167,890 38,220 22.8 23,350 126,221 23,046 18.3 12,526 33.0 65.8 86.4
Tatva Chintan Pharma 4,236 606 14.3 455 4,336 1,082 25.0 959 (2.3) (44.0) (52.6)
Vinati 20,847 5,954 28.6 4,580 16,155 4,341 26.9 3,466 29.0 37.2 32.1
Vishnu Chemicals 13,910 2,301 16.5 1,366 10,690 1,557 14.6 814 30.1 47.8 67.8
Total 1,514,609 280,246 18.5 171,358 1,306,868 243,426 18.6 150,643 15.9 15.1 13.8
Total (Excl. Tata Chem.) 1,346,719 242,026 18.0 148,008 1,180,647 220,380 18.7 138,117 14.1 9.8 7.2
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

FY23 Agrochemical Companies Financial Performance


Agrochemicals FY23 FY22 % chg. YoY
Company Name Revenues EBITDA EBITDA % PAT Revenues EBITDA EBITDA % PAT Revenues EBITDA PAT
Bayer CropScience 51,397 9,242 18.0 7,582 47,344 8,111 17.1 6,453 8.6 13.9 17.5
Best Agrolife 17,457 3,137 18.0 1,921 12,108 1,658 13.7 1,048 44.2 89.2 83.3
Dhanuka Agritech 17,002 2,787 16.4 2,335 14,778 2,635 17.8 2,089 15.0 5.8 11.8
Heranba Industries 13,188 1,560 11.8 1,044 14,504 2,598 17.9 1,891 (9.1) (40.0) (44.8)
India Pesticides 8,849 1,969 22.3 1,432 7,161 2,138 29.9 1,580 23.6 (7.9) (9.4)
Insecticides India 18,013 1,219 6.8 632 15,040 1,697 11.3 1,074 19.8 (28.2) (41.2)
Punjab Chemicals 10,062 1,226 12.2 611 9,335 1,397 15.0 835 7.8 (12.2) (26.8)
Rallis 29,670 2,183 7.4 919 26,039 2,741 10.5 1,642 13.9 (20.4) (44.0)
Sharda Cropchem 40,452 6,431 15.9 3,420 35,798 6,829 19.1 3,493 13.0 (5.8) (2.1)
Sumitomo Chemicals 35,110 6,666 19.0 5,022 30,646 5,999 19.6 4,236 14.6 11.1 18.6
UPL 535,760 101,960 19.0 35,700 462,400 95,290 20.6 36,260 15.9 7.0 (1.5)
Total 776,960 138,380 17.8 60,618 675,153 131,093 19.4 60,601 15.1 5.6 0.0
Total (Excl. UPL) 241,200 36,420 15.1 24,918 212,753 35,803 16.8 24,341 13.4 1.7 2.4
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Centrum Institutional Research 7


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

FY23 Export Performance


FY23 Chemical Companies’ Export Performance
Exports Total Revenues % of revenues
Company Name FY23 FY22 % Chg. FY23 FY22 FY23 FY22
Aarti Industries 35,170 29,500 19.2 66,190 58,230 53.1 50.7
Aether Industries 4,493 2,433 84.7 6,511 5,900 69.0 41.2
Anupam Rasayan 10,252 5,970 71.7 16,019 10,660 64.0 56.0
Archean Chemical 10,520 7,913 32.9 14,411 11,304 73.0 70.0
Chemcon Specialty Chemicals 1,787 951 87.9 3,029 2,571 59.0 37.0
Clean Science 6,738 4,743 42.1 9,358 6,775 72.0 70.0
Deepak Nitrite 15,134 15,300 (1.1) 79,721 68,022 19.0 22.5
Fine Organic 20,557 11,258 82.6 30,231 18,763 68.0 60.0
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 34,030 19,540 74.2 56,847 39,536 59.9 49.4
Laxmi Organic Industries 11,438 8,948 27.8 27,966 30,843 40.9 29.0
Meghmani Organics 22,387 21,320 5.0 25,526 24,985 87.7 85.3
Navin Fluorine 13,706 7,122 92.4 20,774 14,534 66.0 49.0
Neogen Chemicals 3,294 2,164 52.2 6,862 4,873 48.0 44.4
PI Industries 50,304 39,902 26.1 64,920 52,995 77.5 75.3
SH Kelkar 6,850 6,820 0.4 16,865 15,642 40.6 43.6
Sudarshan 10,420 9,950 4.7 23,017 22,008 45.3 45.2
Vishnu Chemicals 6,816 5,404 26.1 13,910 10,690 49.0 50.6
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

FY23 Agrochemical Companies’ Export Performance


Exports Total Revenues % of revenues
Company Name FY23 FY22 % Chg. FY23 FY22 FY23 FY22
Heranba Industries 5,407 6,092 (11.2) 13,188 14,504 41.0 42.0
Insecticides India 901 1,354 (33.5) 18,013 15,040 5.0 9.0
Punjab Chemicals 5,810 4,870 19.3 10,062 9,335 57.7 52.2
Rallis 10,978 9,114 20.5 29,670 26,039 37.0 35.0
Sumitomo Chemicals 8,778 6,742 30.2 35,110 30,646 25.0 22.0
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Centrum Institutional Research 8


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Change in FY24E consensus estimates post Q1FY24 results


Chemical Companies’ FY24E consensus estimates post Q1FY24 results
Pre Result Post Result
Company Name Sales EBITDA EPS Sales EBITDA EPS
Aarti Industries 76,749 12,563 16 69,215 10,894 13
Aether Industries 8,851 2,560 15 9,189 2,732 15
Alkyl Amines Chemicals 19,634 4,562 59 18,123 3,914 50
AMI Organics 7,630 1,637 30 7,607 1,586 29
Anupam Rasayan India 20,047 5,250 25 19,511 5,161 22
Archean Chemical 17,557 8,080 46 15,734 6,727 41
Atul 58,499 9,182 198 54,996 8,331 181
Chemplast Sanmar 51,354 7,530 24 47,685 6,003 12
Clean Science & Technology 11,235 4,684 32 9,406 3,924 27
Deepak Nitrite 86,818 16,460 81 81,740 13,640 68
Fine Organic Industries 26,908 6,105 148 24,618 5,739 141
Galaxy Surfactants 42,224 5,388 99 41,361 5,320 96
GHCL 44,128 13,615 97 42,844 12,420 91
Gujarat Fluorochemicals 64,261 22,509 133 56,399 17,224 100
Hikal 13,447 2,770 15 16,552 3,064 15
India Glycols 27,620 3,120 38 27,620 3,120 38
Jubilant Ingrevia 50,743 6,453 23 50,743 6,453 23
Laxmi Organic Industries 32,871 4,373 10 31,520 3,684 8
Navin Fluorine International 27,473 7,556 99 26,464 7,148 93
Neogen Chemicals 8,419 1,501 31 8,291 1,428 28
NOCIL 16,825 2,628 10 16,618 2,512 9
PI Industries 80,916 19,236 98 81,821 19,551 100
Rossari Biotech 19,263 2,729 27 19,013 2,720 27
SH Kelkar & Co 19,666 3,245 19 19,666 3,245 19
SRF 1,68,469 40,798 81 1,57,468 36,070 70
Sudarshan Chemical Industries 25,447 3,136 24 25,350 3,182 17
Tata Chemicals 1,77,797 40,980 94 1,71,285 39,447 84
Tatva Chintan Pharma 5,754 1,093 35 5,660 1,117 34
Vinati Organics 21,962 6,485 48 21,962 6,063 45
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Agrochemical Companies’ FY24E consensus estimates post Q1FY24 results


Pre Result Post Result
Name Sales EBITDA Eps Sales EBITDA Eps
India Pesticides 19,753 1,716 33 19,903 1,786 35
Insecticides India 10,184 2,182 14 9,277 1,780 11
Rallis India 32,514 3,349 9 31,620 3,318 9
Sharda Cropchem 45,903 8,174 44 43,988 6,358 29
Sumitomo Chemical India 38,923 7,351 11 35,878 6,548 9
UPL Ltd 5,72,935 1,19,859 61 5,43,464 1,09,635 52
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data

Centrum Institutional Research 9


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Aarti Industries
Moderation in EBITDA in FY24, FY25 EBITDA can be down by
10%, more clarity in later quarters
Financial Performance – Placed comfortably
 Capex – Rs2.60bn
 Gross debt – Rs30bn, net debt – Rs26.50bn
 Debt repayment – Raised USD130mn from IFC for long-term projects, expect some WC
release, so placed comfortably for yearly debt repayments

Business performance – Exports impact on 70% of products


 Based on customer discussions, volume recovery from 2HFY24
 Slowdown in non-regulated markets as well due to inventory issues
 Overall demand degrowth – 10-20% depending on product lines
 Margin pressure more commodity based chemicals
 Volumes – Volume impact across all the products irrespective of value added or
specialty chemicals
 Expect FY25 chemicals industry to come at normal consumption
 1st Contract – Severely impacted due to product being an agro intermediate
 2nd Contract – EBITDA is assured irrespective of movement of volumes
 3rd Contract – Expect good numbers from second half
 One of the capacities which was closed in China has restarted
 Exports – 45-50% direct exports and 20-25% indirect exports from domestic customers
who are taking material from Aarti and exporting their products, so total 65-70% overall
exports
 Domestic – direct exposure 30%, stable demand
 Agrochemicals – USD75bn market and USD65bn inventories across RM, intermediates,
finished product
 Benzene – Pass through on monthly basis in domestic market, some lag in exports
market
 Pricing structure – Base RM plus delta in contractual customers or otherwise, for every
step delta is added
 Dyes – Prolonged weakness, textiles is struggling
 Pigments – Expect some green shoots in Q2
 Polymers and additives – More corrections happening now, may bottom out by Q3/ Q4
 Have some volume visibility for Q3/ Q4 – Based on customer feedback Q3 volumes to
be higher and Q4 further higher

Long-term contracts, new capex – NCB project commissioned


 NCB capacity expansion and specialty chemicals plants capex – Capacity expansion
from 75,000MT to 108,000MT
 Chlorotoluenes – Phase I Rs15bn capex, along with few downstream chemistry and
MPP plants, initial plant commissioning by end-FY25, most commissioning in FY26, 90%
value added products, minimum three steps (rest as per previous concall)
 Acid unit – 22% expansion in early FY25
 Ethylation – Capex of Rs2bn, expected to be commissioned by 1HFY25, expanding
capacity 3x from current 7-10,000MT
 Nitrotoluene debottlenecking – Capacity expansion by 50% from 30,000MT to
45,000MT, for agrochemicals, expected by 1HFY25

Centrum Institutional Research 10


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Volumes – Lower NCB volumes, expect volume impact in Nitrotoluenes in Q2


 NCB volumes – 17,293MT (20,515MT)
 Hydrogenation – 2,868MT/ month (3,295MT/ month)
 Nitrotoluenes – 9,327MT/ qtr (5,252MT/ qtr), higher volume offtake in Q1 due to
agrochemical demand, now seeing inventory issues, expect volumes to be certainly
impacted in Q2, try to seek other markets
 PDA – 135/ month (370/ month)

Guidance/ Outlook – No fresh guidance


 Expect EBITDA to moderate in FY24, difficult to give fresh guidance on FY25 EBITDA,
can be down 10% from earlier RS17bn, more clarity in subsequent quarters
 FY24 tax rate – sub-10%
 FY24/25 capex – Rs25-30bn
 D/ E – 0.5-0.6 currently targeting, 0.7x worst case, depend on WC

Snippets from presentation – Muted FY24, EBITDA


improvement from FY25
Financial Performance – Growth driven by volumes and pricing
 Revenues – Declined on account of decline in volumes, decline in prices of key RM and
margin contraction due to excess supply from China, etc. Commitments with reference
to Long term contract and demand for few products with end use into additives
continuing to be on an uptick
 EBITDA – Impacted due to demand weakness in products with end use industries such
as Dyes and Pigments, Agrochemicals, Auto, etc., lower utilization of key capacities
impacted the EBITDA
 Benefits of Higher Tax depreciation and exemptions resulted into lower tax liability
 Exports – Rs6.74bn vs Rs7.78bn, down 13% YoY

Business performance – Contribution from long-term contracts increasing


 Witnessed deeper impact in the discretionary end uses and slower than expected
recovery in Dyes & Pigments
 Inventory correction across the globe at various end uses (including in Agrochemicals)
lead to sharp demand contraction in the months of May and June significantly
impacting Exports and domestic supply targeting global markets
 Higher interest rates and inflationary costs in global markets, coupled with ease in
global logistics also leading to inventory corrections across various markets
 Slowdown in China impacting the domestic demand in China, resulting in excess
volumes originating from China. Further, the depreciation of Chinese currency vis a vis
Indian Rupee also impacts the competitiveness of Indian manufacturers. These had led
to margin contraction across few products
 Dyes and Pigments, Agrochemicals, Auto – With impact being deep, the recovery is
expected to gradually come from H2FY24
 Key cost components like energy prices have started normalizing. RM prices for key
materials like Benzene have softened a bit in Q1FY24, however the same have again
started moving upwards from July 2023. The Company has robust pricing mechanisms
in place to mitigate the impact of volatility and the same is being passed on to the
customers

Project update – Capex progressing satisfactorily


 Recently commercialized the expanded NCB Capacity
 Commercialised renewable power generation unit with the capacity of 13MW, in
partnership with Renew Power. This will partly mitigate the Company’s power needs
through cost effective and renewable sources

Centrum Institutional Research 11


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Zone 4 project initiatives is taking concrete shape and the company remains confident
of commencing production in a phased manner from FY25

Guidance
 With short term macro headwinds significantly prevailing in CY23, expect the year to
be weaker than expected earlier
 The long-term opportunities remain strong and intact and thus the company remains
optimistic and expects FY25 to be a crucial year, steering the growth momentum
 FY24 – Macro Concerns on demand continuing from FY23 and is expected to
progressively improve in H2FY24
 FY25 – Recovery of Volumes across the sector, Ramp-up of capacities and higher
operating leverages shall lead to EBITDA growth, Zone 4 to start gradually going
onstream
 FY26 and beyond – EBITDA growth driven by, Zone 4 ramping up, new Strategic
opportunities, higher utilisation for existing capacities at Zone 1,2,3

Growth Strategy
 Partnership with Global Companies – Collaborate with world’s leading chemical
companies, build on existing partnerships and build new ones, contract Manufacturing/
CDMO Opportunities
 New Product Development – Explore new value Chains, add new chemistry: e.g.,
Photochlorination, oxidation etc., Expansion of existing Value chain
 Bio and Sunrise sector – Sustainable/ green products with focus on biochemistry,
Battery chemicals, Electronics chemicals, new age materials, high-end polymers etc.

Aarti Industries (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23s QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 14,140 16,103 (12.2) 16,560 (14.6) 66,190 64,044 3.3
Cost of Goods 8,530 9,262 (7.9) 9,620 (11.3) 38,420 29,999 28.1
% of sales 60.3 57.5 58.1 58.0 46.8
Employee benefit expenses 1,010 910 11.0 1,090 (7.3) 3,855 3,882 (0.7)
% of sales 7.1 5.6 6.6 5.8 6.1
Other expenditure 2,600 3,116 (16.6) 3,330 (21.9) 13,023 12,188 6.9
% of sales 18.4 19.4 20.1 19.7 19.0
Operating profit 2,000 2,815 (29.0) 2,520 (20.6) 10,892 17,976 (39.4)
OPM (%) 14.1 17.5 15.2 16.5 28.1
Dep. and amor. 890 718 24.0 840 6.0 3,107 2,605 19.3
EBIT 1,110 2,098 (47.1) 1,680 (33.9) 7,785 15,371 (49.4)
Interest 400 445 (10.2) 330 21.2 1,682 1,069 57.3
Other income 0 4 (100.0) 0 - 7 8 (16.0)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 710 1,656 (57.1) 1,350 (47.4) 6,109 14,310 (57.3)
Provision for tax 0 301 (100.0) -140 (100.0) 654 1,969 (66.8)
eff. tax rate 0.0 18.2 (10.4) 10.7 13.8
PAT 710 1,355 (47.6) 1,490 (52.3) 5,456 12,341 (55.8)
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 1
PAT (rep.) 710 1,355 (47.6) 1,490 (52.3) 5,456 12,341 (55.8)
NPM (%) 5.0 8.4 9.0 8.2 19.3
EPS (Rs) 2.0 3.7 4.1 15.0 34.0
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 12


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Aether Industries
Impact from agrochem inventory destocking, expect recovery in
Q3/ Q4, product price decline to impact absolute EBITDA
Financial performance – QIP money to be used for new capex and WC
 Debtors to come down YoY in FY24
 Lower tax rate – To come back to 23-24% in subsequent quarters
 R&D investment – Rs125mn, 7.6% of revenues
 Debtor days – Marginally down from 145 days by Mar-23 to 139 days by Jun-23,
confident to reduce further by end-FY24
 RM cost high – Inventory of 5 months

Business performance – Agrochem inventory impact in Q1


 Agro inventory impacted large scale and contract exclusive manufacturing in Q1
 Definitely slowdown in agrochemical sector in current year
 Restart of Chinese industry impacted the pharma segment
 China dumping in India, benefiting from currency devaluation
 Good growth in CRAMS
 RM – Drastic price reduction in last 60 days, rock-bottom prices
 Selling prices of all products reduced a bit, avg. price correction of ~Rs100/ kg QoQ
 Polyols – Realisations USD8-13/ kg
 Otsuka – Product from Site 2
 Agro and others contribution to rise in next two years, pharma absolute to remain the
same
 2x asset turns for capex at maturity

Progress across sites


 Site 3 – New products launched from Site 3 with better realisations, only for pharma
segment, peak revenue potential at maturity at Rs4bn in two years, to launch one or
two products in Q2/ Q3
 Site 3++ - 3 molecules, two intermediate for agrochemical, one for generic and other
for patented, 1 intermediate for material sciences, site to come online in next 12-14
months
 Site 5 – Converge Polyols, 2,000MTPA plant for polyols, sales of ~500MT in FY25,
~1,000MT in FY26, full potential the next year

Margins
 Otsuka – Similar to large scale manufacturing
 Oilfield chemicals – 29-30%
 Polaroid - 50%, categorised as crams

LOIs
 New LOI with one of the three major global oilfield services companies based in the US
– Four molecules, 1,300MT per month volumes, Rs3 bn revenue potential from FY25,
realisation USD3-5/ kg, some contribution from end-FY24 (rest as per previous concall)
 Otsuka, Japan – 10 year supply agreement in the largescale manufacturing model,
Rs510mn per year, 300MT volumes for two products
 Saudi Aramco – Manufacturing and commercialisation of Converge Polyols technology
and product series, process jointly developed and validated at pre-commercial scale by
Aramco and Aether

Centrum Institutional Research 13


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Capex – Rs7.5bn capex for FY24 and FY25, asset turnover of 2x (as pre previous
concall)
 Site 3 – Commenced operations on 3 January 2023, production of three products, to
manufacture 5 new pharma intermediates to be manufactured first time in India,
utilisation at 30%, target 60% by end-FY24, 3,500MT capacity
 Site 4 – Area expanded from 8,000sq mt. to 18,000sq. mt.
 Site 5 in Panoli – Advancing well
 Capex – Rs7.5bn for Site 3++, 4 and 5 (Rs2.5bn towards each site)
 Capex in new sites towards 29 new products which have an addressable market of
Rs30-40bn

Guidance
 Expect Q3/ Q4 to be stronger

Snippets from presentation – Capex on track, funding arranged


through recent QIP
Q1 segmental revenue breakup
 Large scale manufacturing – 63.3%
 Contract/ exclusive manufacturing – 19.8%
 CRAMS – 15.6%
 Others – 1.3%

Q1 Revenue breakup/ industry wise


 Pharma – 57.8%
 Agrochemical – 20.0%
 High performance photography – 6.0%
 Material sciences – 5.6%
 Multiple – 5.5%
 Coatings – 3.5%
 O&G – 1.5%
 Others – 0.1%

Business highlights
 Exports – 35.6%, domestic – 64.4%
 Started business with 11 new customers during Q1 across all business models
 More than 57 new team members joined Aether in Q1 across all departments
 Successfully concluded 8 customer audits and certification audits in Q4FY23
 LOI signed with US based oil field company for contract manufacturing of its 4 products
 Saudi Aramco – Entered into license agreement for long term contract for Converge
Polyols

Expansion plans
 Site 3++ Expansion – Ground digging work in progress, along with application for
various regulatory approvals
 Site 4 Expansion – Old structure breaking work and ground digging work started.
Ordering of the equipment and machineries on-going
 Site 5 Expansion – Wall fencing work in progress, along with application for various
regulatory approvals
 Pilot Plant Expansion – Initiated the expansion work for new Pilot Plant at the land
which was procured on long-lease. Ordering of the machines on-going

Centrum Institutional Research 14


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

R&D
 Employees – 262
 Scientists with PhD / M. Sc and B. Sc – 130
 Engineers – 132
 Q1 Capex – Rs125mn, 7.6% of revenues

QIP – Utilisation of funds


 Funding Capex at Site 3 – Rs1.83bn
 Funding Capex at Site 5 – Rs3.30bn
 Funding Working Capital – Rs450mn
 General Corporate Purposes – Rs1.71bn

Aether Industries (St.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 1,611 1,600 0.7 1,838 (12.3) 6,511 5,900 10.3
Cost of Goods 769 830 (7.3) 871 (11.6) 3,173 2,880 10.2
% of sales 47.8 51.9 47.4 48.7 48.8
Employee benefit expenses 85 72 18.2 90 (5.5) 345 270 27.4
% of sales 5.3 4.5 4.9 5.3 4.6
Other expenditure 309 274 12.9 281 10.1 1,130 1,069 5.8
% of sales 19.2 17.1 15.3 17.4 18.1
Operating profit 448 424 5.4 596 (24.9) 1,862 1,681 10.8
OPM (%) 27.8 26.5 32.4 28.6 28.5
Dep. and amor. 92 45 104.6 69 33.9 232 155 50.1
EBIT 355 379 (6.3) 527 (32.6) 1,630 1,526 6.8
Interest 12 29 (59.4) 12 (0.6) 51 131 (61.2)
Other income 23 62 (63.3) 6 282.9 166 70 137.5
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 366 412 (11.2) 522 (29.8) 1,745 1,465 19.1
Provision for tax 68 106 (36.1) 146 (53.6) 441 375 17.4
eff. tax rate 18.5 25.7 28.0 25.3 25.6
PAT (rep.) 299 306 (2.5) 376 (20.5) 1,304 1,089 19.7

Segmental Revenues Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Large Scale Manufacturing 1,020 848 20.3 1,010 1.0 3,356 3,955 (15.1)
Contract Manufacturing 319 528 (39.6) 591 (46.1) 2,234 1,402 59.3
CRAMS 251 192 30.9 216 16.4 816 479 70.4
Others 22 32 (31.0) 20 8.4 104 64 63.3
Total 1,612 1,600 0.8 1,838 (12.3) 6,511 5,900 10.3
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 15


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Alkyl Amines
Results – Dismal performance
 Revenues – Down 14% YoY, flattish QoQ at Rs4.1bn
 Gross margins – Contracted 620bps YoY, down 170bps QoQ at 44.7%
 EBITDA margins – Down 640bps YoY, down 60bps at 18.1%
 EBITDA – Down 36% YoY, down 4% QoQ at Rs740mn
 PAT – Down 39%YoY, up 2% QoQ at Rs498mn

Alkyl Amines (St.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,098 4,735 (13.5) 4,117 (0.5) 16,825 15,428 9.1
Cost of Goods 2,266 2,323 (2.5) 2,207 2.6 8,597 8,355 2.9
% of sales 55.3 49.1 53.6 51.1 54.2
Employee benefit expenses 251 269 (6.5) 230 9.1 976 881 10.8
% of sales 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.7
Other expenditure 841 985 (14.6) 910 (7.5) 3,815 2,926 30.4
% of sales 20.5 20.8 22.1 22.7 19.0
Operating profit 740 1,158 (36.1) 769 (3.8) 3,438 3,265 5.3
OPM (%) 18.1 24.5 18.7 20.4 21.2
Dep. and amor. 122 118 3.5 116 5.1 452 347 30.2
Interest 9 8 9.9 11 (17.6) 38 38 (1.8)
EBT 609 1,033 (41.0) 643 (5.2) 2,948 2,880 2.4
Other income 55 42 30.5 28 93.0 137 142 (3.2)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 664 1,075 (38.2) 671 (1.1) 3,085 3,022 2.1
Provision for tax 166 256 (35.0) 185 (10.0) 799 772 3.5
eff. tax rate 25.0 23.8 27.5 25.9 25.6
PAT (rep.) 498 819 (39.2) 486 2.3 2,286 2,250 1.6
NPM (%) 12.0 17.1 11.7 13.5 14.4
EPS (Rs) 9.7 16.0 9.5 44.7 44.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 16


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Ami Organics
Performance good although Global economy are grappling with
inflation.
Financial performance
 Q1 has historically been a weak quarter.
 Revenue from operations for the quarter was at Rs1.42bn, up 8.7% YoY
 EBITDA for the quarter was at Rs252mn up 9.7% YoY.
 Margins for the quarter were at 17.7% compared to 17.5% in Q1 FY '23.
 EBITDA margin grew by 20 basis points in Q1 FY '24 compared to the same period in
last year
 The gross margin for the quarter was at 44.8%. It was down due to product mix.
 The gross profit for the quarter was at Rs637mn, which was flat when compared to
same last -- with compared to same period last year
 PAT for the quarter was at INR166 mn, up 12% on YoY basis.
 The PAT margin for Q1 was at 11.7% as compared to 11.3% in Q1 FY '23.
 FX gain for the quarter is at Rs4.8 mn

Margin stable in both pharma and speciality


 Lower gross margins – down due to product mix
 Pharma grew by 5% Speciality Chem grew by 25% at Rs270mn
 Q1 Exports – 37%, domestic – 63%
 Exports low due to market being sluggish and one of the formulators changed their API
supplies from overseas to India
 Q1 Advance Pharmaceutical Intermediates – 81%, Specialty Chemicals – 19%
 Q1 Pharma margins – 20.2%, FY23 21.57%, Q4 – 23.6%
 Q1 Speciality margins – 11.1%, FY23 10.3%

Business performance – Well placed for future volume growth


 Advance Pharmaceutical Intermediates – pharmaceutical intermediate business grew
by 5% during Q1 FY '24. Slower growth was due to sluggish demand in the export
market, which was balanced by robust transactions in the domestic market.
 Specialty Chemicals – Strong volume traction in Methyl Salicylate and Parabens. Post
introduction of flow chemistry process for Methyl Salicylate, Ami Organics are now
globally competitive
 Electrolyte additives update – Electrolyte samples approved at plant trial scale by 6
customers. Advance stages of negotiation of contract going on with couple of
customers.
 Current contracts in the electrolyte pricing is at $13 in China, which is from where the
price rise starts. Ami organics are targeting at entering contracts at $14 or $15.
 Ankleshwar facility are within four blocks. Out of that three are for manufacturing and
one block for the solvent recovery and hydrogenation
 Jhagadia facility – Operating at 30-35%, can go up to 80-85%
 Multiple LOIs for FY24/ 25, will be announced once converted to contracts
 The growth in EBITDA margin was somewhat suppressed on account of higher
employee cost, which was driven by annual increments, performance bonus, as well as
higher wages
 Government of Gujarat, increased minimum wages of the workers by 25% for all
category of workers, which has affected the employee cost during the quarter.

Centrum Institutional Research 17


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Speciality Chemicals current margin is 11.1%. Expected improvement in margin by 100


basis points -- 50 to 100 basis points every quarter.
 Transaction with BABA Finechem is yet to be completed hence management will
disclose the number of Baba Fine Chem when the transaction is completed and it gets
merged in the balance sheet
 Net debt-free balance sheet with net cash balance of around Rs280mn as of June 30,
2023.

Guidance/ outlook
 Q2 expected with upward trajectory in EBITDA margin. Management confident to
deliver 20% to 25% growth with more than 21% EBITDA margin for the financial year
2024.

Ami Organics (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 1,424 1,310 8.7 1,864 (23.6) 6,167 5,201 18.6
Cost of Goods 786 671 17.2 1,051 (25.2) 3,309 2,722 21.6
% of sales 55.2 51.2 56.4 53.7 52.3
Employee benefit expense 137 118 16.4 115 19.2 488 414 18.1
% of sales 9.6 9.0 6.2 7.9 8.0
Other expenditure 249 293 (14.9) 290 (14.0) 1,143 1,014 12.7
% of sales 17.5 22.3 15.5 18.5 19.5
Operating profit 252 229 9.7 409 (38.4) 1,227 1,052 16.7
OPM (%) 17.7 17.5 21.9 19.9 20.2
Dep. and amor. 34 30 12.8 34 (0.1) 123 101 22.4
EBIT 217 199 9.3 374 (42.0) 1,104 951 16.1
Interest 5 2 179.3 6 (14.2) 24 64 (62.3)
Other income 11 6 78.1 -2 (734.2) 43 28 56.4
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 223 203 9.8 367 (39.1) 1,123 915 22.8
Provision for tax 57 55 3.9 95 (40.1) 289 195 48.1
eff. tax rate 25.4 26.9 25.8 25.7 21.3
PAT (rep.) 166 149 12.0 272 (38.8) 834 719 15.9
NPM (%) 11.6 11.3 14.6 13.4 13.8
EPS (Rs) 4.6 4.1 7.5 22.9 19.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 18


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Anupam Rasayan
Q2 to remain similar to Q1, recovery in 2H, FY24 guidance
lowered, margins to be maintained, capex on track
Business Performance – Collaboration with 3xper Innoventure and new LOI
signing to aid future growth
 17.9 MW solar power plant – Rs120mn savings per year
 Open to acquire additional stake in Tanfac
 CDMO demand robust from Innovators to push custom synthesis manufacturing in
India, Europe continues to remain a sizeable player
 Channel supply chain is easing down aiding WC
 Despite robust demand, delivery schedules postponed towards Q3 and Q4 of FY24
 RM ~40% of total revenue, RM price fluctuation to not impact margins significantly
 RM prices, incremental opex completely pass through across all product portfolios,
both legacy as well as new LOIs

Guidance – Long term guidance maintained, short-term challenges


 EBITDA guidance standalone – 26-28%
 FY24 Revenue growth – revised downwards to 20-25% instead of historical trend
 Incremental asset turnover 1.75-2.00x
 Q2 expected to be similar to Q1 while stronger recovery in H2FY24
 Revenue potential from current product mix and capex Rs30bn
 WC to cool down, target sub 200 days in next few years

FY24 Capex – Rs670cr overall capex (as per previous concall)


 Total capex plan – Rs6.7bn capex on three brownfield projects, based on demand for
fluorinated molecules, sufficient for 3-5 year growth
 Rs6.7bn capex – Rs2.5bn for LOIs and rest Rs4.2bn for fluorination including the latest
three LOIs
 FY24 capex – Rs3.5-4bn, incremental asset turns at 1.75x
 FY25 capex – Rs3-3.5bn based on Rs6.5bn capex plan

Expansion in Fluorination chemistry (as per previous concalls)


 Revenue potential for Anupam – USD220-260mn annual
 Addressable market USD5+bn
 Polymers USD40-70mn, pharma USD80-90mn, agrochem USD100mn

Snippets from presentation – 2 new fluorinated pharma


molecules commercialised in Q1
Q1 Financial performance
 Signed LOIs worth Rs40.7bn in Q1, total LOIs of Rs76.7bn singed over the past two years
 Capex – Rs1.24bn out of total planned capex of Rs6.7bn
 Revenues from top 10 customers – 94%
 Revenue split – Life science related specialty chemicals 90%, Others 10%

Business Performance
 Focus on new age pharma molecules – Collaboration with 3xper Innoventure a
subsidiary of Tube Investments of India Limited, these molecules will be manufactured
using cutting-edge flow chemistry-based continuous reaction technology

Centrum Institutional Research 19


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 New molecules commercialisation – Commercialized two new fluorinated pharma


molecules out of 10 new molecules to be launched in FY24
 Added 2 new products during Q1, total products 55
 Added 2 new MNCs during Q1, total MNC clients 29
 10+ new products during FY24 and 90+ products in R&D and pilot phase
 Number of molecules in pipeline – 90+
Anupam Rasayan (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 3,864 3,436 12.4 4,800 (19.5) 16,019 10,737 49.2
Cost of Goods 1,630 1,376 18.5 2,359 (30.9) 7,036 3,699 90.2
% of sales 42.2 40.0 49.1 43.9 34.5
Employee Benefit expense 186 144 29.6 164 13.2 689 485 42.1
% of sales 4.8 4.2 3.4 4.3 4.5
Other expenditure 1,033 931 11.0 1,104 (6.4) 3,981 3,506 13.6
% of sales 26.7 27.1 23.0 24.9 32.6
Operating profit 1,014 986 2.9 1,173 (13.5) 4,314 3,047 41.6
OPM (%) 26.2 28.7 24.4 26.9 28.4
Dep. and amor. 187 164 14.2 185 0.8 711 601 18.2
EBIT 827 822 0.6 988 (16.2) 3,603 2,446
Interest 178 122 45.7 203 (12.1) 627 308 103.3
Other income 124 -93 (232.6) 243 (49.0) 86 74 15.6
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 773 607 27.4 1,028 (24.8) 3,062 2,212 38.4
Provision for tax 250 202 24.3 301 (16.9) 908 697 30.3
eff. tax rate 32.4 33.2 29.3 29.7 31.5
PAT 523 405 29.0 726 (28.1) 2,154 1,515 42.1
Share of Prof./(Loss) from Asso. 0 15 (100.0) 0 15 7 125.9
Minority interest 136 23 160 (14.5) 360 0
Rep. PAT 386 397 (2.7) 567 (31.9) 1,808 1,522 18.8
NPM (%) 9.7 11.9 11.2 11.2 14.1
EPS (Rs) 3.6 4.0 (9.3) 5.3 (31.9) 16.8 15.2 10.5
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 20


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Archean Chemicals
Bromine prices bottomed out, firm demand, benefit from lower
opex to continue
Financial performance – Benefit from lower opex
 Exports – 66% (67%)
 Revenue break-up – Bromine 40% (51%), salt 59% (49%), SOP 0% (0%)
 EBITDA margin expansion – Overall operating costs including power & fuel,
transportation cost corrected benefitting margins, Rs140-150mn benefit

Business performance
 Challenging period even for bromine and bromine derivatives due to global destocking
 Plant shut for a few days, resumed operations within week and scaled up
 Opportunities to bring down operating costs further
 R&D – Sampling from Diwali, four member team, FY25 expect 10 member team working
on industrial applications

Bromine – Prices bottomed out, firm demand


 Realisations trending down in last couple of quarters, firm domestic demand despite
pricing pressure, some green shoots seen
 Export market picking up again, expect steady business in coming quarters
 Bottom prices seen, difficult to say on price recovery, some Chinese customers are
coming back
 Phase I expansion Bromine derivatives – Clear brine fluids and PTA synthesis catalysts,
started marketing and receiving good feedback, , expect 70% utilisation in first year
 Phase II Flame retardants – Don’t see too much challenge due to backward integration,
commissioning by Q1FY25, min. 90% offtake from Chinese technology provider
 Bromine derivatives – Expect full utilisation by end-FY25
 28,000MT bromine derivatives require 13-14,000MT bromine

SOP – Expect to liquidate entirely in current year


 Some traction from few clients, aggressive marketing in domestic market
 Liquidation of 8,000MT already started MoM increase in domestic sales, exports
consignments also started, expect to be liquidated in current year completely

Salt
 Salt – Demand continues to remain robust in Asian market, long-term contracted price
so spot volatility doesn’t affect
 Salt washeries – Expect by end-FY24
 Chlorine derivatives – Still healthy, not seen any impact on contracted volumes

Sales volumes
 Bromine – 4,272MT (5,730MT)
 Industrial salt – 1.06MMT (0.96MMT)
 SOP – 382MT (65MMT)

Outlook
 FY24 volumes – Bromine volume growth expected to be more than high-single digit
growth
 EBITDA margin target – 37-42%

Centrum Institutional Research 21


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Business segments (rest as per presentation and previous concalls)


 Bromine – Leadership position in Indian Bromine merchant sales, ~44% exports
 Industrial Salt – 100% exports
 Sulphate of potash – ~66% exports, only manufacturer from natural sea brine in India

Brownfield Expansion – Expanded Bromine and Industrial Salt capacities


 Bromine – Added a feed enrichment section at the site in Hajipir, Gujarat which
increased Bromine capacity by 18,000 MT per annum, added an additional 14,500 MT
per annum capacity in FY23 which will be used for producing Bromine Derivatives in
the upcoming greenfield project, largely for exports market in Europe, US, Asia , not
China specific
 Industrial Salt – Intend to expand the manufacturing capacities for Industrial Salt
production by adding one additional washery of 250 tons per hour, expected to start in
latter part of FY24

Greenfield Expansion – To expand into downstream Bromine derivative


performance products
 To set up a new facility at Jhagadia, GIDC through Acume Chemicals Private Limited
(Subsidiary) to manufacture Bromine Performance Derivatives
 Primarily Brominated flame retardants, Clear Brine Fluids & Bromine Catalysts
 Capex – ~Rs2.52bn, expected in FY24, funded through D:E 2:1, 3x asset turns at peak
utilisation, EBITDA margins 25-30%
 Capacity – High-end Flame Retardant 10,000MTPA, Clear Brine Fluids 13,000MTPA,
Pure Terephthalic Acid (PTA) synthesis 5,000MTPA
 1MT of Flame retardant – 0.60-0.65MT of bromine
 1MT of Clear Brine Fluids – 0.20-0.25MT of bromine

Archean Chemicals
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 3,431 4,003 (14.3) 3,824 (10.3) 14,411 11,304 27.5
Cost of Goods -28 49 (157.3) -251 (88.7) 27 393 (93.1)
% of sales (0.8) 1.2 (6.6) 0.2 3.5
Employee benefit expenses 203 98 108.2 244 (16.5) 720 378 90.4
% of sales 5.9 2.4 6.4 5.0 3.3
Other expenditure 1,583 2,245 (29.5) 1,887 (16.1) 7,323 5,918 23.7
% of sales 46.1 56.1 49.3 50.8 52.4
Operating profit 1,673 1,611 3.9 1,944 (13.9) 6,340 4,614 37.4
OPM (%) 48.8 40.2 50.8 44.0 40.8
Dep. and amor. 175 176 (0.7) 173 1.2 686 669 2.6
Interest 30 392 (92.3) 34 (11.8) 970 1,617 (40.0)
EBT 1,468 1,043 40.8 1,737 (15.5) 4,684 2,329 101.1
Other income 109 85 27.9 83 31.2 433 182 138.2
Excp. Item 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 -
PBT 1,577 1,128 39.8 1,820 (13.3) 5,117 2,511 103.8
Provision for tax 312 284 9.7 455 (31.5) 1,291 628 105.6
eff. tax rate 19.8 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.0
PAT (rep.) 1,265 844 49.9 1,365 (7.3) 3,826 1,883 103.2
NPM (%) 35.7 20.6 34.9 25.8 16.4
EPS (Rs) 10.3 16.3 (37.1) 11.1 (7.3) 31.1 19.5 59.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 22


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Atul
Snippets from presentation – Weak exports demand impacted
revenues, margins impacted due to weak crop protection seg.
Performance coupled with lower utilisation in performance and
oth. Chem. seg.
 Revenues – Remained stagnant QoQ and decreased 20% YoY due to lower realisation
and weak demand in the global market amid geopolitical disturbances
 Lower margins – Attributed to higher fixed costs coupled with reduced sales volume,
resulting in inadequate absorption of the entire fixed cost burden
 Life Science Chemicals segment – Subdued global demand and lower price realisation
in the Crop Protection Business resulted in weak performance
 Performance and Other Chemicals segment – Higher inventory and lower capacity
utilisation at customer end resulted in lower sales and subsequently profitability
 WC improved QoQ
 R&D formulation laboratory of Crop Protection Business was set up for development
of innovative agrochemical formulations
 Kilo lab of Crop Protection Business was set up for scale up and validate R&D processes
and generate samples for commercial and regulatory studies

Centrum Institutional Research 23


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Atul (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 11,820 14,769 (20.0) 11,952 (1.1) 54,275 50,809 6.8
Cost of Goods 6,324 7,605 (16.8) 6,475 (2.3) 28,640 25,886 10.6
% of sales 53.5 51.5 54.2 52.8 50.9
Employee Benefit Expenses 963 907 6.1 947 1.7 3,702 3,425 8.1
% of sales 8.1 6.1 7.9 6.8 6.7
Power, Fuel and water 1,343 1,602 (16.2) 1,427 (5.9) 6,476 5,101 26.9
% of sales 11.4 10.9 11.9 11.9 10.0
Other expenditure 1,369 2,325 (41.1) 1,610 (15.0) 7,709 7,281 5.9
% of sales 11.6 15.7 13.5 14.2 14.3
Operating profit 1,823 2,330 (21.8) 1,494 22.0 7,749 9,114 (15.0)
OPM (%) 15.4 15.8 12.5 14.3 17.9
Dep. and amor. 519 473 9.8 511 1.7 1,978 1,767 12.0
EBIT 1,303 1,857 (29.8) 983 32.6 5,770 7,348 (21.5)
Interest 20 16 29.3 22 (7.3) 79 92 (13.8)
Other income 82 359 (77.2) 242 (66.1) 1,149 760 51.1
Share of profit of JV 20 11 73.5 16 21.0 38 82 (53.1)
PBT 1,385 2,212 (37.4) 1,219 13.5 6,878 8,097 (15.1)
Provision for tax 364 577 (36.9) 297 22.5 1,812 2,050 (11.6)
eff. tax rate 26.3 26.1 24.4 26.3 25.3
PAT (rep.) 1,021 1,635 (37.6) 922 10.7 5,066 6,047 (16.2)
Non-controlling interest -13 -11 23.8 -14 (3.7) -75 5 (1,654.2)
PAT (adj.) 1,034 1,645 (37.2) 936 10.5 5,141 6,043 (14.9)
NPM (%) 8.6 10.8 7.6 13.4
EPS (Rs) 35.0 55.8 (37.2) 31.7 10.5 174.2 204.2 (14.7)

Segmental revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Life Science Chemicals 3,502 4,847 (27.7) 4,086 (14.3) 19,592 14,651 33.7
Performance and Oth. Chem. 8,745 10,570 (17.3) 8,299 5.4 37,062 37,592 (1.4)
Others 117 113 4.0 130 (9.9) 496 700 (29.1)
Total 12,364 15,529 (20.4) 12,515 (1.2) 57,150 52,943 7.9
Intersegmental 544 761 (28.5) 563 (3.4) 2,875 2,134 34.7
Total revenues 11,820 14,769 (20.0) 11,952 (1.1) 54,275 50,809 6.8
Segmental EBIT
Life Science Chemicals 522 795 (34.3) 906 (42.3) 4,227 1,789 136.3
% EBIT 14.9 16.4 22.2 21.6 12.2
Performance and Oth. Chem. 890 1,302 (31.6) 157 465.9 2,403 5,759 (58.3)
% EBIT 10.9 13.3 2.0 7.0 16.2
Others 18 -0 (6,166.7) 11 71.7 12 244 (95.3)
% EBIT 15.5 (0.3) 8.2 2.3 34.9
Total EBIT 1,431 2,097 (31.8) 1,074 33.2 6,641 7,792 (14.8)
% EBIT 11.6 13.5 8.6 11.6 14.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 24


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

BASF
Dismal YoY performance, robust Agri Solutions segment lifts
overall performance
 Revenues – Up 3%QoQ, down 13% YoY
 EBITDA margins/ EBITDA – Up 180bps QoQ, down 210bps YoY at 5.9%, EBITDA up 48%
QoQ and down 36% YoY at Rs2bn
 PAT – Up 37% QoQ and down 43% YoY

Segment performance – Supernormal performance by Agricultural Solutions


amidst challenging environment

 Agricultural solutions – Despite challenging agrochemicals environment, segment


reported 25.8% EBIT margins and lifted overall performance
 Materials – EBIT losses continued, however intensity lowered QoQ
 Industrial Solutions – Stable QoQ performance
 Surface Technologies – QoQ margins under pressure
 Nutrition & Care – QoQ margins under pressure
 Chemicals – Marginally better QoQ performance

Centrum Institutional Research 25


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

BASF (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 33,747 38,878 (13.2) 32,769 3.0 1,36,448 1,30,997 4.2
Cost of Goods 28,135 31,958 (12.0) 27,717 1.5 1,14,768 1,08,599 5.7
% of sales 83.4 82.2 84.6 84.1 82.9
Employee benefit expense 990 882 12.2 1,158 (14.5) 3,921 3,807 3.0
% of sales 2.9 2.3 3.5 2.9 2.9
Other expenditure 2,644 2,931 (9.8) 2,558 3.3 10,892 9,478 14.9
% of sales 7.8 7.5 7.8 8.0 7.2
Operating profit 1,978 3,107 (36.3) 1,336 48.1 6,866 9,114 (24.7)
OPM (%) 5.9 8.0 4.1 5.0 7.0
Dep. and amor. 467 446 4.8 465 0.4 1,821 1,706 6.7
EBIT 1,511 2,661 (43.2) 870 73.6 5,046 7,408 (31.9)
Interest 78 52 49.7 23 244.9 139 175 (20.4)
Other income 86 33 161.1 122 (29.4) 374 240 56.0
Excp. Item 0 0 -153 -153 -126
PBT 1,519 2,641 (42.5) 1,122 35.3 5,434 7,599 (28.5)
Provision for tax 392 674 (41.8) 298 31.3 1,405 1,651 (14.9)
eff. tax rate 25.8 25.5 26.6 25.9 21.7
PAT (rep.) 1,127 1,968 (42.7) 824 36.8 4,029 5,948 (32.3)
NPM (%) 3.3 5.1 2.5 2.9 4.5
EPS (Rs) 26.0 45.4 (42.7) 19.0 36.8 93.1 137.4 (32.3)

Segmental revenues Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Agricultural Solution 5,438 5,568 (2.3) 3,873 40.4 17,971 15,387 16.8
Materials 9,360 10,113 (7.5) 9,781 (4.3) 38,402 35,278 8.9
Industrial Solutions 5,585 6,522 (14.4) 5,564 0.4 23,498 22,943 2.4
Surface Technologies 2,043 1,709 19.6 1,890 8.1 6,972 5,778 20.7
Nutrition & Care 6,948 6,965 (0.3) 6,783 2.4 27,583 24,797 11.2
Chemicals 4,258 7,724 (44.9) 4,671 (8.9) 20,955 25,701 (18.5)
Others 116 277 (58.2) 208 (44.3) 1,066 1,114 (4.3)
Total 33,747 38,878 (13.2) 32,769 3.0 1,36,448 1,30,997 4.2
Segmental EBIT
Agricultural Solution EBIT 1,405 845 66.2 703 99.7 2,315 1,065 117.3
% EBIT 25.8 15.2 18.2 12.9 6.9
Materials EBIT -22 871 (102.5) -286 (92.3) 484 3,700 (86.9)
% EBIT (0.2) 8.6 (2.9) 1.3 10.5
Industrial Solutions EBIT 254 485 (47.6) 248 2.4 1,322 1,598 (17.3)
% EBIT 4.5 7.4 4.5 5.6 7.0
Surface Technologies EBIT 47 108 (56.5) 150 (68.6) 133 -310 (142.8)
% EBIT 2.3 6.3 7.9 1.9 (5.4)
Nutrition & Care EBIT 63 289 (78.4) 336 (81.4) 1,038 718 44.7
% EBIT 0.9 4.1 5.0 3.8 2.9
Chemicals EBIT 119 238 (50.1) 81 47.1 397 1,106 (64.1)
% EBIT 2.8 3.1 1.7 1.9 4.3
Others EBIT -114 -68 67.5 -46 145.6 57 129 (56.1)
% EBIT (98.3) (24.5) (22.3) 5.3 11.6
Total EBIT 1,751 2,768 (36.7) 1,185 47.7 5,746 8,005 (28.2)
% EBIT 5.2 7.1 3.6 4.2 6.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 26


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Bayer CropScience
Good show amidst headwinds
 Revenues – Up 4% YoY at Rs17.4bn, adjusted for customer incentive program the
revenue growth was 9%
 Gross margins – Contracted 580bps YoY at 42.7%
 EBITDA margins – Up 70bps YoY at 24.4%, supported by both lower staff costs and opex
 EBITDA – Up 8% YoY at Rs4.2bn
 PAT – Up 9% YoY at Rs3.3bn
 Despite the impact of delayed monsoon, continued to see strong growth in Sales and
liquidation of Crop Protection portfolio
 Witnessed Roundup™ price normalization impacting the overall Sales growth of the
quarter
 Corn seeds continue to yield strong results with volume growth driven by portfolio and
better acreages in Kharif

Bayer CropScience
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 17,396 16,674 4.3 9,825 77.1 51,397 47,344 8.6
Cost of Goods 9,973 8,594 16.0 4,813 107.2 28,160 26,642 5.7
% of sales 57.3 51.5 49.0 54.8 56.3
Employee benefit expense 933 1,261 (26.0) 1,320 (29.3) 5,343 4,631 15.4
% of sales 5.4 7.6 13.4 10.4 9.8
Other expenditure 2,244 2,868 (21.8) 1,634 37.3 8,652 7,960 8.7
% of sales 12.9 17.2 16.6 16.8 16.8
Operating profit 4,246 3,951 7.5 2,058 106.3 9,242 8,111 13.9
OPM (%) 24.4 23.7 20.9 18.0 17.1
Dep. and amor. 313 229 36.7 271 15.5 795 645 23.3
EBIT 3,933 3,722 5.7 1,787 120.1 8,447 7,466 13.1
Interest 79 41 92.7 73 8.2 223 129 72.9
Other income 207 142 45.8 207 0.0 639 546 17.0
Excp. Item 0 0 -31 -1,038 -585
PBT 4,061 3,823 6.2 1,952 108.0 9,901 8,468 16.9
Provision for tax 776 797 (2.6) 367 111.4 2,319 2,015 15.1
eff. tax rate 19.1 20.8 18.8 23.4 23.8
PAT (rep.) 3,285 3,026 8.6 1,585 107.3 7,582 6,453 17.5
NPM (%) 18.7 18.0 15.8 14.6 13.5
EPS (Rs) 73.2 67.4 8.6 35.3 107.3 168.9 143.7 17.5
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 27


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Best Agrolife
Q1 growth driven from new products, several new product
launches planned, guidance of 30% revenue growth with 20%
margins maintained
Financial performance – Growth driven from newly launched products
 32% YoY revenue growth – Volume led growth, driven by newly launched products such
as Ronfen, Citigen, Vistara, Axeman, and Warden
 21% EBITDA margin – Owing to increasing contribution of specialty, niche, and patented
products to overall revenues

Business performance – Higher contribution from Ronfen and CTPR from Q2


 Capex – Brownfield expansion, backward integration, Rs2bn in technical manufacturing
unit Best Crop Science Private Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company) &
market footprint expansion
 Backward integration investments on track
 CTPR – Coming with novel combination molecules
 Ronfen – Rs700mn in Q1, Rs2.4bn in FY23, sales mainly in 2Q
 CTPR – Rs200mn in Q1, sales mainly in 2Q/ 3Q
 CTPR pricing – Innovator price correction by ~15%, Best Agro selling its CTPR at ~10%
discount to innovator price
 Tricolor – Expect Rs4bn+ in next two years
 For each patented product, expect minimum Rs2bn sales
 WC – well managed
 International market strategy – Initially targeting Far East for paddy, South America
being the largest market, and Africa opportunities for formulations. Expect to invest
Rs500mn on development of the market, registrations etc. Different strategy for
technicals
 Revenues from new products – 70%

Products/ registrations – 2 products launched in Q1, 10+ in pipeline


 Launched two products in Q1, Propiquazafop and Ametryn under the brand name
Propique and Amito respectively
 Plan to introduce one patented product in Q2
 Registration received for three technicals – Diclosulam technical 94% minimum,
Boscalid technical 96% minimum and Dimethomorph technical 95.5% minimum
 Diclosulam is a broadleaf herbicide used to control weeds in Soyabean and Peanut
crops
 Boscalid is a foliar fungicide against a broad range of fungal pathogens in a wide range
of crops, including vegetables and other crops
 Dimethomorph is a systemic fungicide that protects Potato, Tomato, and Grape crops
from fungi in the water mould family, such as root rot, crown rot, late blight and downy
mildew
 Pipeline of 10+ products to be launched during the course of FY24 which includes
couple of patented products as well as some niche combination products and technicals
 Tricolor – First Indian Agrochemical Manufacturer granted registration for indigenous
manufacturing of the product Trifloxystrobin 10% + Difenoconazole 12.5% + Sulphur
3% Sc under section 9 (3) FIM. This combination effectively controls Sheath Blight,
Powdery Mildew, Scab and Alternaria in Rice, Grapes, Tomato, Chili, Wheat, Mango and
Apple

Centrum Institutional Research 28


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Pyroxasulfone – Seedlings India, fully owned subsidiary granted registration to


manufacture Pyroxasulfone 85% WG domestically in accordance with section 9 (3) FIM
vs FIT. Herbicide for Wheat, Corn and Soyabean. Pyroxasulfone market is worth over
Rs4.5bn, confident in reaching Rs1.5bn penetration in the first year after introduction

Guidance – 30% topline growth with 20% margins in FY24 maintained


 FY24 revenue growth – 30%
 FY24 EBITDA – 20%
 FY24 CTPR revenues – Rs4bn
 Capex – Rs2bn mostly in FY24, some spill over to FY25
 FY24 revenues – ~Rs3.5-4bn from Ronfen, ~Rs4bn from CTPR, ~Rs1.50bn from
Pyroxasulfone

Best Agrolife
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 6,122 4,637 32.0 2,539 141.1 17,457 12,108 44.2
Cost of Goods 4,290 3,652 17.5 2,057 108.6 12,522 9,851 27.1
% of sales 70.1 78.7 81.0 71.7 81.4
Other expenditure 532 327 63.1 411 29.5 1,799 599 200.2
% of sales 8.7 7.0 16.2 10.3 4.9
Operating profit 1,300 659 97.2 71 1,720.1 3,137 1,658 89.2
OPM (%) 21.2 14.2 2.8 18.0 13.7
Dep. and amor. 73 58 27.3 70 4.9 245 118 107.0
Interest 124 71 75.4 126 (1.4) 389 151 157.5
EBT 1,102 531 107.7 -124 (988.4) 2,503 1,389 80.2
Other income 43 4 1,065.6 7 547.7 26 18 46.4
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 1,146 534 114.4 -117 (1,076.1) 2,529 1,407 79.8
Provision for tax 241 133 80.8 -33 (823.1) 608 359 69.2
eff. tax rate 21.0 24.9 28.4 24.0 25.5
PAT (rep.) 905 401 125.5 -84 (1,176.3) 1,921 1,048 83.4
NPM (%) 14.7 8.6 (3.3) 11.0 8.6
EPS (Rs) 38.3 17.0 125.5 (3.6) (1,176.3) 81.3 44.3 83.4
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 29


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Chemcon Speciality Chemicals


Snippets from presentation – Lower volumes QoQ, margins
impacted in Q1, P10 and P11 projects on track

Financial performance – Aided by inorganic chemicals


 Revenues aided by better performance from Inorganic chemicals
 Geography split – Exports 27% (Q4FY23 – 61%), domestic 73% (39%)
 Business Mix – Organic chemicals 59%, Inorganic chemicals 40%, Others 1%

Business performance
 Inorganic chemical – Steady for the quarter on the back of healthy demand and better
sourcing of key RMs
 Organic chemicals – Continue to experience slowdown due to host of challenges such
as market volatility, pricing pressures and slow pickup from pharma players
 Newly launched Organic chemical has witnessed some volatility due to destocking from
agrochemical manufacturers which has further reflected on the product prices for last
few months
 A new product to commercialize in the coming quarters will further on board new
clients and diversify our product basket
 Plan to commercialize P10 unit by end-FY24 and P11 unit by FY25 which will add other
few organic chemicals

Sales Volume
 Total Sales Volume – 2,466MT
 Sales Volume split – Inorganic chemicals 1,214MT, organic chemicals 1,252MT

Chemcon Speciality (St.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 793 894 (11.3) 791 0.3 3,029 2,571 17.8
Cost of Goods 599 382 56.8 536 11.8 1,757 1,223 43.7
% of sales 75.5 42.7 67.8 58.0 47.6
Employee benefit expenses 40 56 (29.1) 50 (20.2) 205 191 7.4
% of sales 5.0 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.4
Other expenditure 77 120 (35.8) 64 20.3 359 341 5.4
% of sales 9.7 13.4 8.1 11.9 13.3
Operating profit 77 336 (77.0) 141 (45.2) 707 816 (13.4)
OPM (%) 9.7 37.5 17.8 23.3 31.7
Dep. and amor. 26 19 36.1 23 16.2 84 63 33.5
EBIT 51 316 (83.9) 118 (56.9) 623 753 (17.3)
Interest 7 2 311.7 5 38.6 15 6 161.4
Other income 36 27 33.8 29 24.3 133 92 44.1
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 80 341 (76.6) 142 (43.7) 742 840 (11.7)
Provision for tax 21 87 (75.9) 37 (44.0) 190 212 (10.3)
eff. tax rate 26.2 25.4 26.3 25.7 25.3
PAT (rep.) 59 255 (76.8) 105 (43.6) 551 628 (12.2)
NPM (%) 7.1 27.6 12.8 17.4 23.6
EPS (Rs) 16.1 6.9 132.1 2.9 464.3 15.0 17.1 (12.2)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 30


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Chemplast Sanmar
Domestic PVC demand and pricing improving, robust growth
expected in custom manufacturing, signed 1 new LOI in Q1
Financial performance – Healthy cash balance
 Cons. cash balance - Rs12.44bn
 Power and fuel cost – Rs1.56bn
 Net debt – Rs270mn cash positive
 Projects with D:E of 60:40

Business performance – Custom manufacturing Phase I MPP block


commissioned
 Phase 1 of the new multi-purpose block in the Custom Manufacturing business has
been completed; Phase 2 is on track
 The Company has been selected by a global agrochemical innovator to manufacture a
new Active Ingredient (AI) – This is the third new product (announced in the last 9
months) that will be manufactured in the new multi-purpose block
 FY24 capex – Rs7.44bn
 Caustic Soda, Chloromethanes, Hydrogen Peroxide, Ref. gases – Headwinds expected
for the next couple of quarters
 Paste PVC premium over suspension PVC – USD200-250/ MT
 Drop in Coal and Superior Kerosene prices was witnessed at the end of Q1FY24 –
Benefits are expected to accrue in the ensuing quarters
 DGTR notification on quantitative restrictions on suspension PVC with higher residual
VCM (RVCM) content more than 2ppm – Notified on 15 May

Suspension and Paste PVC – Good domestic demand, pricing improving, China
dumping slowed down
 PVC spreads – Q1 at USD113/ MT, current USD200/ MT vs global spreads at USD160/
MT
 Prices of both Suspension PVC and Speciality Paste PVC in Q1FY24 the lowest over the
last 8-10 quarters – Witnessed around 10% fall QoQ
 Prices have started recovering from July onwards – Mainly due to strong domestic
demand combined with a fall in import arrivals in latter part of Q1FY24 consequent on
the reduction in operating rates of PVC plants In North-East Asia
 Feedstock (VCM and EDC) – Prices have also corrected in the latter part of the quarter
and this benefit is likely to accrue in Q2
 Strong domestic demand in both suspension and paste PVC
 Suspension PVC imports – Declined QoQ from 900,000MT in Q4FY23 to 600,000MT in
Q1FY24, China imports down QoQ from 330,000MT to 164,000MT
 Paste PVC imports – Declined QoQ from 35,000MT in Q4FY23 to 13,500MT in Q1FY24,
China imports down QoQ from 12,000MT to 1,000MT
 Q1 suspension PVC domestic demand – 900,000MT, domestic production 375,000MT

Paste PVC expansion – Commissioning in 2HFY24


 Paste PVC, 41,000MT addition, Cuddalore – Capex Rs3.60bn, from imported VCM,
brownfield expansion, to be commissioned in 2HFY24
 Paste PVC India market – 163,000MT in FY23, expected 180,000MT in FY24, post that
200,000MT
 Competitor paste PVC – 22,000MT capacity, 10-15,000MT production

Centrum Institutional Research 31


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Custom manufacturing – Third LOI in Q1, Rs10bn potential over the next 3-4
years from new project
 Completely innovator driven business for exports market
 Currently serving agro market, however diversifying into pharma, fine chemicals
 RoCE at peak utilisation – 40%
 Signed third LOI in Q1, first in Nov-22, second in May-23
 Phase I projects commissioned – 2 LOI molecules to be manufactured in new MPP
 Expect 25% revenue growth in FY24 vs earlier guidance of 10-15%
 Peak utilisation in next 2-3 years post Phase II expansion
 One of the products commercial order in place, soon for second quarter
 Pipeline continues to be strong, good enquiry flow
 Augmenting capabilities in R&D (rest as per previous concalls)
 November – Signed LOI with a global innovator for an advanced intermediate for a new
active ingredient
 May – Signed LOI with a global agrochemical innovator to manufacture an advanced
intermediate, covers 5 years, commercial supplies from Q4FY24 from new MPP
 Total revenue potential Rs8bn for two molecules under LOI
 Phase I – Steady state volumes of 1,000-1,400MT p.a. for 2 new molecules
 12-18 months approval cycle for custom manufacturing from enquiry to
commercialisations
 Reasonable visibility of pipeline by the time Phase II will get commissioned
 Gross margins – steady state ~40%, initially lower while move up with ramp up
 R&D – 40 people, chemists+chemical engineers, expected to go up in next 3-6 months,
strong in cyanation, hydrogenation, high purity products, 10-14 products in pipeline
 RM souring – From Europe as well as China, however lower dependency from China
 9 molecules by FY23, 3 molecules to be added in FY24 including 2 molecules under LOIs
 MPP capex – Phase I Rs3bn, commissioning by Q2FY24, phase II targeting
commissioning by end-FY24, total capex Rs6.8bn, initial asset turns 1x, to reach peak of
1.2-1.3x over a period of 3 years, 25%+ IRR

Centrum Institutional Research 32


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Chemplast Sanmar (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 9,964 14,113 (29.4) 11,468 (13.1) 49,411 58,920 (16.1)
Cost of Goods 7,250 9,041 (19.8) 7,475 (3.0) 32,107 37,136 (13.5)
% of sales 72.8 64.1 65.2 65.0 63.0
Employee benefit expenses 382 363 5.1 391 (2.4) 1,472 1,201 22.6
% of sales 3.8 2.6 3.4 3.0 2.0
Other expenditure 2,678 2,768 (3.2) 2,628 1.9 11,151 8,615 29.4
% of sales 26.9 19.6 22.9 22.6 14.6
Operating profit -345 1,941 (117.8) 974 (135.4) 4,681 11,968 (60.9)
OPM (%) (3.5) 13.8 8.5 9.5 20.3
Dep. and amor. 325 406 (20.0) 335 (3.0) 1,420 1,371 3.6
EBIT -670 1,536 (143.6) 640 (204.7) 3,261 10,597 (69.2)
Interest 442 362 22.0 384 15.0 1,540 3,216 (52.1)
Other income 180 158 14.1 309 (41.9) 799 575 39.0
Excp. Item 0 805 0 805 0
PBT -932 526 (276.9) 565 (264.9) 1,715 7,956 (78.4)
Provision for tax -292 121 (342.0) 113 201 1,435 (86.0)
eff. tax rate 31.3 22.9 20.1 11.7 18.0
PAT (rep.) -640 406 (257.6) 452 (241.7) 1,514 6,520 (76.8)
Share of Profit/(Loss) from Asso. 0 0 0 0 0
PAT -640 406 (257.6) 452 (241.7) 1,514 6,520 (76.8)
NPM (%) (6.3) 2.8 3.8 3.0 11.0
EPS (Rs) (4.0) 2.6 (257.6) 2.9 (238.8) 9.6 41.0 (76.5)

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Specialities 3,499 5,700 (38.6) 4,277 (18.2) 21,967 20,122 9.2
Commodity 6,522 9,231 (29.3) 7,194 (9.3) 30,002 38,828 (22.7)
Un-allocable Operating Income 0 0 0 0 0
Total 10,021 14,931 (32.9) 11,472 (12.6) 51,969 58,949 (11.8)
Intersegment revenue -57 -818 -3 -2,558 -30
Total revenue from Operations 9,964 14,113 (29.4) 11,468 (13.1) 49,411 58,920 (16.1)
Segments EBIT (Rs mn)
Specialities -436 984 (144.3) 96 (553.9) 2,165 4,336 (50.1)
EBIT % (12.5) 17.3 2.2 9.9 21.6
Commodity -495 395 (225.1) 469 (205.5) 355 3,619 (90.2)
EBIT % (7.6) 4.3 6.5 1.2 9.3
Total -943 1,396 (167.5) 567 (266.3) 2,530 7,977 (68.3)
EBIT % (9.4) 9.4 4.9 4.9 13.5
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 33


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Clean Science and Technology


Impact from volume decline, expect volumes to normalise in
next couple of quarters, slow ramp up in HALS, capex on track
Financial performance – Benefit in opex from declining power and fuel cost
 Capex – ~Rs900mn including Rs850mn in subsidiary, funded through internal accruals
 YoY EBITDA margins – Supported by better product mix, lower input prices and lean
operating structure
 20% revenue degrowth – two third due to volume degrowth and one third due to price
decline
 Higher other income at Rs134mn- forex gains Rs56mn, treasury income ~Rs60mn
 Power and fuel costs – Down QoQ from Rs180mn to Rs120mn

Capacity utilisation
 Performance Chemicals – dipped to ~60%, due to lower utilisation of HALS capacity
 FMCG – ~70%
 Pharma and Agro – ~62%

Business performance – Severe volume impact due to demand slowdown and


inventory destocking
 Performance chemicals – Decreased realization and volume; volume impact more than
realization
 Pharma & Agro Intermediates – Decreased realization and volume; volume impact
more than realization
 FMCG chemicals – Volumes were better while realization corrected; overall registered
revenue growth
 Exports – 63% vs 65% YoY, domestic market was relatively less impacted than export
market
 Revenue share of Americas increased
 RM, product prices correcting
 Volumes impacted severely due to demand slowdown and inventory destocking
 No new producer of MEHQ or BHA in China
 Pharma segment decline – Guaiacol one of two major products, goes in cough syrup,
due to issues in Indonesia, Iraq from cough syrups supplied from India, sluggish demand
 RM prices have started inching up so don’t expect product prices to go down further
 Hydroquinone sourced from imports
 PBQ current utilization low at 20%

HALS – Slower offtake, expect better demand in next 2 quarters


 India import volumes almost halved from 3,000MT
 Slower demand from master batches globally
 Currently operating at less than 50% capacity, expect to at least touch 50% in next two
quarters
 No deviation in Rs2bn capex on HALS
 New range of products to start from December, 3 products

New project – Capex of ~Rs2bn (as per previous concall)


 For new products
 Construction by Jul-Aug, plants to be operational in one year

Centrum Institutional Research 34


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 RMs sourcing from both domestic and imports


 User segments – Performance materials (inhibitors), water treatment, pharma
intermediates, in ARVs replacement of China
 Approval cycle – Some products approvals short, for some 3-6 months
 Asset turns 2.5-3.0x, at optimal utilisation RoCEs of parent can be achieved
 Catalytic processes, some products zero discharge/ effluent

Guidance (as per previous concall)


 FY24 capex – Rs1.8bn in Unit 4, minimal maintenance capex in standalone
 Unit 4/ subsidiary capex – Primarily towards HALS, including overall site development
including utilities, infra, ETP etc.
 Margin guidance in a couple of quarters
Clean Science (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 1,881 2,341 (19.6) 2,169 (13.3) 9,358 6,849 36.6
Cost of Goods 726 913 (20.5) 641 13.3 3,260 2,247 45.1
% of sales 38.6 39.0 29.5 34.8 32.8
Employee Benefit expense 117 100 17.0 128 (8.6) 452 345 30.8
% of sales 6.2 4.3 5.9 4.8 5.0
Other expenditure 277 414 (33.2) 349 (20.7) 1,625 1,258 29.2
% of sales 14.7 17.7 16.1 17.4 18.4
Operating profit 761 913 (16.6) 1,051 (27.6) 4,021 2,999 34.1
OPM (%) 40.5 39.0 48.5 43.0 43.8
Dep. and amor. 108 85 27.6 101 7.3 361 249 44.8
EBIT 653 829 (21.2) 950 (31.2) 3,660 2,750 33.1
Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Other income 134 18 631.6 126 6.3 298 300 (0.5)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 788 847 (7.0) 1,077 (26.8) 3,958 3,049 29.8
Provision for tax 198 218 (9.3) 270 (26.7) 1,005 763 31.7
eff. tax rate 25.1 25.7 25.1 25.4 25.0
PAT (rep.) 590 629 (6.2) 807 (26.9) 2,954 2,286 29.2
NPM (%) 29.3 26.7 35.2 30.6 32.0
EPS (Rs) 5.5 5.9 (6.3) 7.6 (26.8) 27.8 21.5 29.2

Segment Revenue Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Performance Chemical 1,250 1,530 (18.3) 1,568 (20.3) 6,457 4,562 41.5
Pharma and Agro Intermediate 410 530 (22.6) 412 (0.5) 1,778 1,168 52.2
FMCG Chemicals 240 230 4.3 239 0.6 1,029 816 26.1
Others -19 51 (137.2) -50 (62.4) 0 302 (100.0)
Segment Revenue 1,881 2,341 (19.6) 2,169 (13.3) 9,264 6,849 35.3
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 35


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

DCM Shriram
Capexes on track, commissioning in H2FY24, expect
improvement in performance in 2HFY24
Business performance
 Q1 RoCE – 21.2% (36.5%)
 Net debt – Rs9,260mn (Rs80mn)

Q1 Caustic Soda – Oversupply situation aided with capacity additions exert


pressure on ECU/ prices
 Indian Imports – Up at 0.68 vs 0.11 lac MT YoY
 Indian Exports - Up at 0.92 vs 0.64 lac MT YoY
 Capacity utilization – 83% (90%)
 Revenues – Down 40% YoY
 ECU prices – Down 41% (QoQ down 23%)
 Chlorine prices – Negative Rs4,000/ MT
 Caustic volumes – Down 9% (QoQ down 12%)
 Continue to see good demand and prices for Hydrogen
 PBIT – Down at Rs110mn (Rs3,470mn), largely led by fall in ECUs
 Chlorine – Higher captive consumption plus pipeline transport at Bharuch than Kota
 Energy cost high at Bharuch & will start reducing from Q3FY24
 Projects delayed by a quarter on the back of supply chain disruptions. Procurement &
marketing related activities have started
 5% captive utilisation of chlorine, intend to take it upto 15%
 Outlook – Domestic industry is expected to start recovering in 2HFY24. Started sourcing
up to 43 MW renewable power from mid-June onwards. 120 MW power plant to
commission in Q2FY24, to benefit from Q3

PVC – Dumping from China continues, demand remained muted during the
quarter
 No pick up in prices in near term due to subdued demand environment globally
 India PVC demand continues to be higher than pre pandemic levels. Imports continue
to be higher (almost 2/3rd of total demand) given the poor demand from construction
sector in China, US & Europe
 Domestic prices remain subdued due to oversupply & aggressive pricing by China
 Matters of antidumping duty and reduction in customs duty still remain unaddressed
by the Govt., uncertain about timeline for any action
 Capacity utilization – 86%
 Revenue – Down 32% YoY at Rs1,640mn
 PVC and carbide prices down 39% and 30% YoY respectively
 Volumes up 4% and 19% YoY for PVC & Carbide respectively
 PBIT loss of Rs70mn vs profit of Rs660mn YoY
 Significant drop in PVC and Carbide prices
 Costs of Coal and Carbon material have come down
 Outlook – Prices expected to remain range bound with limited downside. Lower
inventory levels in the domestic market currently augurs well for demand post
monsoons. Input costs are declining further, this will improve margins.

Centrum Institutional Research 36


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Sugar – Sugar price not commensurate with increased sugarcane prices


 No issues in offtake of ethanol from the OMCs
 Closing inventory expected at 4.5mmt (LY 5.6mmt). Stocks to remain under check in
upcoming season net of diversion towards ethanol & exports
 Sugarcane cost increased by Rs10/ qtl – FRP for SS 2023-24. SAP (UP) not yet announced
– still higher than SAP at UP Average recovery
 Ethanol blending rate expected to be ~12%
 Revenues up 35% YoY
 Sugar volumes were up 41% due to higher domestic releases and exports
 Prices – Both domestic and international were also higher by 3% and 25% respectively
 Ethanol volumes were higher than last year – 359 vs 350 lac ltr
 PBIT higher at Rs630mn (Rs20mn)
 Earnings led by better product margins across all product lines
 Prices of Sugar not commensurate to increase in Sugarcane price announced in the last
season
 Sugar inventory end-Q1FY24 – 2.84mn qtl vs 2.71lac qtl YoY (3.58mn lac qtl by end-
FY23)
 Ethanol Inventory end-Q1FY24 – 2.13mn ltrs vs 4mn ltrs YoY
 Board approved Compressed Bio Gas (CBG) project with a capacity of 12 TPD at Ajbapur
unit, with a capex of Rs1,310mn, expected to be commissioned by Q4FY25. This will
add further to green footprint along with value addition to press mud, a by-product of
sugar operations.
 Outlook – Overall global sugar balance expected to be negative. This should support
global sugar prices. Rains in Uttar Pradesh have been good so far, this will help better
Sugarcane output. Industry is closely working with the Government to ensure reliable
supply of food grain for ethanol production. Policy environment in UP needs to be more
favorable in the mutual interest of farmers as well as mills.

Shriram Farm Solutions (Seeds, Pesticides, Soluble Fertilizer,


Micro-nutrients)
 Revenues – Up 8% YoY, driven by the robust performance in Seeds and Crop Protection
verticals
 PBIT – Down at Rs106mn (Rs178mn)
 Higher fixed expenses on account of higher marketing expenses
 Working on strengthening “Shriram” Brand
 Project for manufacturing of water soluble fertilizers & biologicals running as per
schedule (in a subsidiary), to be commissioned by Q4FY24
 Outlook – Making investments in building future capabilities in research &
manufacturing

Fenesta – Strong performance with higher volumes and new


product additions
 Revenues – Up 15% YoY, primarily driven by volumes in projects segment and better
prices
 Order booking up 13% YoY, driven by both segments
 PBIT – Up 24% YoY, earnings driven by higher volumes in projects segment and better
margins
 Expansion of extrusion plant at Kota & new fabrication unit for Façade in Hyderabad
likely by Q2FY24

Centrum Institutional Research 37


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Currently 6 Fabrication shops (4 uPVC and 2 Aluminum windows) along with 8 extrusion
lines are operational
 304 dealers in 207 cities with 9 own showrooms. International presence in 3 countries
 Outlook – Fenesta has been continuously focusing on improving geographical presence
including international. Also plans to grow aggressively with new product offerings in
Windows, Doors, Facades and adding new product lines. Customer service and quality
will be a key focus area and differentiator with the competition

Bioseed
 Revenues – Flat at Rs2,130mn (Rs2,050mn)
 PBIT – Up 18% YoY
 Earnings driven by better margins
 Outlook – Focused pipeline across portfolio will lead to good growth in medium term

Fertilizers (Urea)
 Revenues – Up 18% YoY
 Volumes – Up 62% YoY due to maintenance shut down taken last year in Q1FY23
 Prices – Down 28% YoY, due to lower energy prices, a pass through
 PBIT – Rs200mn (loss of Rs200mn) largely on account of annual maintenance shutdown
taken in Q1 last year resulting in lower production, efficiencies & higher maintenance
costs in last year
 Subsidy outstanding by end-Q1FY24 – Rs830mn (Rs4,620mn) vs Rs3,100mn by end-
FY23 since subsidy payments being made on notified prices that are higher
 Outlook – Business continues to work towards Outlook improving levels of energy
consumption.

Projects/ capex (As per previous concall)


 Coal based power plant 120MW – Power cost saving ~Rs1bn, grid power at ~Rs7 while
captive power at ~Rs4.0-4.5
 Epichlorohydrin (ECH) – 51,000MTPA along with Glycerine purification facility, green
technology, capex Rs4.0-4.5bn, domestic demand ~70,000MTPA, completely imported,
India demand growing at ~10%, largely used for epoxy resins
 Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) – 52,500MTPA, capex Rs4,000mn, domestic demand
176,000MTPA, ~18-20% imported
 Expansion of Anhydrous Aluminium Chloride – 32,850MTPA (60TPD currently to go to
150TPD post expansion)
 Multipurpose Product Research & Development Center – for value addition further
 850 TPD Caustic Soda plant and 600 TPD flaker
 Multi-feed Distillery at Ajbapur Sugar unit – Capacity of 120KLD, capex Rs1,450mn
 Additional steam generation for commercial sale up to 90TPH at Bharuch at an
investment of Rs310mn
 Expansion in crushing capacity – 3,000 additions, taking to 41,000
 Sugar refining capacity – move up from 15% to 60%
 Potash capacity – extracting potash from distillery ash, 4,600MTPA

Centrum Institutional Research 38


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

DCM Shriram (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 27,801 28,514 (2.5) 27,200 2.2 1,15,470 96,274 19.9
Cost of Goods 15,481 13,829 12.0 12,327 25.6 56,741 44,358 27.9
% of sales 55.7 48.5 45.3 49.1 46.1
Employee benefit expenses 2,430 2,133 13.9 2,309 5.2 8,906 7,833 13.7
% of sales 8.7 7.5 8.5 7.7 8.1
Other expenditure 8,230 8,193 0.5 9,102 (9.6) 33,758 26,119 29.2
% of sales 29.6 28.7 33.5 29.2 27.1
Operating profit 1,660 4,360 (61.9) 3,462 (52.0) 16,064 17,964 (10.6)
OPM (%) 6.0 15.3 12.7 13.9 18.7
Dep. and amor. 720 607 18.7 709 1.6 2,602 2,380 9.3
EBIT 940 3,753 (75.0) 2,753 (65.9) 13,463 15,585 (13.6)
Interest 254 167 51.6 119 113.2 528 854 (38.1)
Other income 174 281 (38.2) 258 (32.7) 1,197 919 30.2
Excp. Item 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
PBT 860 3,867 (77.8) 2,892 (70.3) 14,131 15,650 (9.7)
Provision for tax 294 1,327 (77.8) 1,026 (71.3) 5,023 4,989 0.7
eff. tax rate 34.2 34.3 35.5 35.5 31.9
PAT (rep.) 566 2,540 (77.7) 1,867 (69.7) 9,108 10,661 (14.6)
Minority Interest/ Share of prof. from Asso. 0 0 0 0 12 (100.0)
PAT 566 2,540 (77.7) 1,867 (69.7) 9,108 10,674 (14.7)
NPM (%) 2.0 8.8 6.8 7.8 11.0
EPS (Rs) 3.6 16.2 11.9 (69.7) 58.1 68.1 (14.7)

Segmental Rev. (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Chloro-Vinyl 7,007 11,396 (38.5) 9,178 (23.7) 39,537 36,165 9.3
Sugar 11,152 8,302 34.3 10,678 4.4 35,265 26,956 30.8
Shriram Farm Solutions 2,362 2,179 8.4 662 256.8 10,335 9,489 8.9
Bioseed 2,127 2,054 3.5 836 154.6 4,831 4,060 19.0
Fertiliser 3,782 3,215 17.6 4,285 (11.7) 19,874 13,270 49.8
Others 3,306 2,990 10.6 3,112 6.2 12,203 9,677 26.1
Total 29,736 30,136 (1.3) 28,750 386.6 1,22,045 99,616 22.5
Segmental EBIT (Rs mn)
Chloro-Vinyl 35 4,127 (99.2) 1,470 (97.6) 9,834 12,666 (22.4)
% EBIT 0.5 36.2 (98.6) 16.0 24.9 35.0
Sugar 632 21 2,966.0 1,887 (66.5) 2,370 3,227 (26.6)
% EBIT 5.7 0.2 2,182.6 17.7 6.7 12.0
Shriram Farm Solutions 106 178 (40.4) -118 (189.9) 1,836 1,346 36.4
% EBIT 4.5 8.2 (45.0) (17.9) 17.8 14.2
Bioseed 215 183 17.5 -267 (180.3) -90 -763 (88.2)
% EBIT 10.1 8.9 13.5 (32.0) (1.9) (18.8)
Fertiliser 201 -202 (199.5) 254 (20.9) 1,294 765 69.2
% EBIT 5.3 (6.3) (184.5) 5.9 6.5 5.8
Others 353 117 201.4 200 76.3 828 546 51.7
% EBIT 10.7 3.9 172.6 6.4 6.8 5.6
Total 1,541 4,424 (65.2) 3,425 (55.0) 16,071 17,787 (9.6)
% EBIT 5.2 14.9 (64.8) 12.0 13.3 18.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 39


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

DCW
Snippets from presentation
Financial performance
 Revenues down 43% YoY – Due to price erosion across all commodity product
segments, 35% YoY decline in PVC and caustic realisations, as well as YoY soda ash price
decline
 Lower volumes all across except CPVC
 Lower interest costs both QoQ and YoY

Business performance
 Soda ash production down due machinery breakdown
 Caustic soda operated at 85% capacity utilisation due to sharp fall in realisations
 Sluggish exports demand resulted in lower sales of synthetic rutile and SIOP

SIOP
 Revenue – Down 35% YoY
 EBITDA margin – 30.4%
 Production/ Utilisation – 5,494MT/ 81%

C-PVC
 Revenue – Down 21% YoY
 EBITDA margin – 34.1%
 Production/ Utilisation – 2,911MT/ 108%

PVC
 Revenue – Down 48% YoY
 EBITDA margin – (0.5)%
 Production/ Utilisation – 20,435MT/ 91%

Soda Ash
 Revenue – Down 31% YoY
 EBITDA margin – 17.2%
 Production/ Utilisation – 19,671MT/ 73%

Caustic Soda
 Revenue – Down 48% YoY
 EBITDA margin – 13%
 Production/ Utilisation – 19,890MT/ 83%

Capex – Rs1,250mn to expand existing capacities


 CPVC total capacity – 20KTPA, commissioning H2FY24
 SIOP total capacity – 30KTPA, commissioning H2FY24

Centrum Institutional Research 40


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

DCW (St.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,380 7,687 (43.0) 5,881 (25.5) 26,338 24,547 7.3
Cost of Goods 2,104 4,055 (48.1) 2,807 (25.0) 12,939 14,214 (9.0)
% of sales 48.0 52.8 47.7 49.1 57.9
Employee benefit expense 418 442 (5.5) 404 3.6 1,822 1,564 16.5
% of sales 9.5 5.8 6.9 6.9 6.4
Power and fuel cost 921 1,238 (25.6) 1,080 (14.8) 4,604 3,384 36.1
% of sales 21.0 16.1 18.4 17.5 13.8
Other expenditure 426 734 (42.0) 597 (28.7) 2,688 2,138 25.7
% of sales 9.7 9.6 10.2 10.2 8.7
Operating profit 512 1,217 (58.0) 994 (48.5) 4,285 3,248 31.9
OPM (%) 11.7 15.8 16.9 16.3 13.2
Dep. and amor. 227 222 2.4 228 (0.1) 902 885 1.8
EBIT 284 995 (71.4) 766 (62.9) 3,383 2,363 43.2
Interest 171 256 (33.3) 191 (10.6) 1,261 1,131 11.5
Other income 40 23 74.5 44 (9.5) 153 61 151.1
Excp. Item 0 147 0 469 139 237.0
PBT 153 614 (75.1) 620 (75.3) 1,807 1,154 56.5
Provision for tax 53 321 (83.4) 266 (80.0) 824 357 130.6
eff. tax rate 34.8 52.3 42.9 45.6 31.0
PAT (rep.) 100 293 (65.9) 353 (71.7) 982 797 23.3
NPM (%) 2.3 3.8 6.0 3.7 3.2
EPS (Rs) 0.3 2.1 (84.0) 1.2 (71.7) 6.5 4.1 57.9

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Soda Ash 602 867 (30.6) 989 (39.1) 3,621 2,024 78.9
Caustic Soda 1,344 2,564 (47.6) 1,932 (30.4) 9,561 6,701 42.7
Synthetic Iron Oxide Pigment (SIOP) 268 411 (34.7) 408 (34.2) 1,539 1,075 43.1
PVC 1,653 3,192 (48.2) 2,053 (19.5) 9,279 12,434 (25.4)
CPVC 464 588 (21.1) 473 (1.8) 2,190 2,153 1.7
Others/ Unallocated 48 64 (24.8) 27 79.8 148 160 (7.3)
Total 4,380 7,687 (43.0) 5,881 (25.5) 26,338 24,547 7.3
EBIT
Soda Ash 78 168 (53.8) 202 (61.5) 575 -100 (678.0)
% EBIT 12.9 19.4 20.4 15.9 (4.9)
Caustic Soda 99 681 (85.4) 134 (25.7) 2,287 381 500.9
% EBIT 7.4 26.6 6.9 23.9 5.7
Synthetic Iron Oxide Pigment (SIOP) 28 73 (61.0) 106 (73.3) 319 -25 (1,351.2)
% EBIT 10.6 17.7 26.0 20.7 (2.4)
PVC -26 -81 (67.3) 216 (112.2) -148 1,560 (109.5)
% EBIT (1.6) (2.5) 10.5 (1.6) 12.6
CPVC 117 133 (11.6) 147 (20.0) 458 530 (13.6)
% EBIT 25.3 22.6 31.0 20.9 24.6
Others/ Unallocated 28 44 (36.8) 6 375.1 46 78 (41.4)
% EBIT 57.4 68.4 21.7 30.9 48.9
Total EBIT 324 1,018 (68.2) 810 (60.0) 3,537 2,424 45.9
% EBIT 7.4 13.2 13.8 13.4 9.9
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 41


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Deepak Nitrite
Q2 expected to be than Q1 for consolidated business, Capexes
on track, to add materially from FY25
Financial performance
 Exports – Rs3.360bn
 Dynamic hedging gain – Rs2.4mn

Business performance
 Despite price variability, was able to maintain volumes
 May 2023 – reported highest ever production from some of the products
 Agro intermediates exports to China in last 2 quarters
 Assured input supplies from alternate sources to derisk supply chain
 Commenced captive power supply recently and value creation from waste
 Deepak started at multi-year low inventories at the beginning of Q2
 Deepak Chem Tech (DCTL) – Total investment of Rs4.995bn of which Rs945mn invested
in Q1
 Tried to become a dominant supplier for all the products in Deepak Nitrite
 Working on 3 life sciences downstream products, to undergo multi-year contracts, with
new R&D the process would be accelerated
 New products – Majority volumes on contractual basis
 Destocking – To continue in Q2/ Q3 albeit with a declining intensity
 Guidance – Cons. EBITDA for next couple of quarters at 15-18%

Phenolics (Phenol-Acetone) – Shutdown impact coupled with contraction in


spreads
 First time shutdown in four years, for 15 days
 EBITDA – Rs1.07bn, 10% margin
 Q2 to be better on YoY and on QoQ basis
 Supply glut from rising supplies from China over the past six months, due to capacity
addition in China
 India’s phenol demand growth higher than global demand growth
 Phenol demand trend QoQ – Plywood and construction – improving trend, Auto –
somewhat improving, Pharma – flat, Dyes – flat on a very low base, Agro – flat, Paper
and textiles – flat on a very low base
 Phenolics – 150% capacity on 200,000MT base from Q3
 Guidance – EBITDA for next couple of quarters at 12-15%

Advanced intermediates – Pricing impact, volumes more or less stable


 EBITDA – Rs1.36bn
 Q2 to be flat on YoY and better on QoQ basis
 Guidance – EBITDA for next couple of quarters at 20-22%

Capex/ Projects, timelines


 Rs50bn MoU with Government of Gujarat – 3 projects, Rs35bn on phenol/ acetone and
Bisphenol-A, Rs15bn on fine and specialty chemicals, funding through internal accruals,
debt and in case needed from any other route
 Capex – Rs20-21bn projects currently under execution

Centrum Institutional Research 42


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Q1FY24 – In phenolics advanced process control project commissioned along with


annual shutdown (rest as per Q4FY23 concall)
 Q1FY24 – Phenol debottlenecking to 300,000MT
 Q3FY24 – Photochlorination/ fluorination projects
 Q4FY24 – Acid plant
 Q4FY24/ Q1FY24 – Hydrogenation, multipurpose distillation, multipurpose nitration
facility
 PC compounding facility – To come up over next 15-18 months
 Sodium Nitrite project in Oman – To be commissioned over the next 24-30 months

Snippets from presentation – Capexes on track, Rs50bn MoU


with Gujrat government provided growth visibility
Financial performance
 Domestic: exports mix – 81:19
 Cons. Net debt/ Equity – 0.0x
 Hedging gain – Rs2.4mn
 DPL Net debt/ Equity – 0.03x vs 0.13x YoY
 Revenues impacted due to inventory destocking and persistent slowdown in EU and
other markets

Business performance
 Achieved highest-ever SNI production in May 2023
 Phenol plant clocked Highest-Ever daily production but also had annual shutdown
 Commenced product exports to China for pharm applications

Projects update
 Construction work at Photohalogenation + Helex plant going as per schedule, expected
to be commissioned in 2HFY24, to help secure internal supply of critical RMs
 Brownfield projects to increase existing process and product lines are under
implementation, expected to be commissioned by end-FY24
 Building world-class R&D centre near Vadodara
 Acetone derivatives project of MIBK and MIBC has seen significant progress, expected
to be commissioned by 1HFY25
 Sodium nitrite project in Oman progress well, on track
 Phenol debottlenecking – To increase production by 10% over FY23 levels
 Deepak Clean Tech signed Rs50bn MoU with Gujarat government, to commence first
phase in 2024-25, aims to complete these projects by 2026-27, 1.5x asset turns

Advanced Intermediates
 Wallet share gains amidst global challenges
 Undertook successful pilot of a new agro intermediate product for long-term
commitment
 Expect significant shift in product basket and competency over the next 2 years

Phenolics
 Revenues and EBITDA decline due to YoY contraction in phenol spreads during the
quarter due to disproportionate imports from China
 Achieved 135% average capacity utilisation, expected to go up post debottlenecking
 Annual shutdown coincided with advanced process control commissioning

Centrum Institutional Research 43


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Outlook
 With projects close to Rs25bn lined up across its key product lines, DNL is clearly
committed to sustained growth and value addition
 Well positioned to achieve incremental gains in both its segments owing to planned
commissioning of key projects in coming year
Deepak Nitrite (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 17,683 20,580 (14.1) 19,614 (9.8) 79,721 68,022 17.2
Cost of Goods 12,236 13,608 (10.1) 12,781 (4.3) 53,475 41,144 30.0
% of sales 69.2 66.1 65.2 67.1 60.5
Employee benefit expenses 842 812 3.7 775 8.8 3,183 2,741 16.1
% of sales 4.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0
Power, fuel, and water 1,173 1,333 (12.0) 1,295 (9.4) 5,419 4,386 23.6
% of sales 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.4
Other expenditure 1,334 1,267 5.3 1,284 3.9 4,750 3,749 26.7
% of sales 7.5 6.2 6.5 6.0 5.5
Operating profit 2,098 3,560 (41.1) 3,480 (39.7) 12,894 16,002 (19.4)
OPM (%) 11.9 17.3 17.7 16.2 23.5
Dep. and amor. 381 419 (9.1) 409 (6.9) 1,663 1,777 (6.4)
EBIT 1,717 3,141 (45.3) 3,070 (44.1) 11,231 14,225 (21.0)
Interest 18 86 (78.9) 45 (59.4) 248 340 (27.2)
Other income 319 96 231.6 126 153.5 476 460 3.5
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 2,017 3,151 (36.0) 3,152 (36.0) 11,459 14,345 (20.1)
Provision for tax 518 805 (35.6) 813 (36.2) 2,939 3,678 (20.1)
eff. tax rate 25.7 25.5 25.8 25.6 25.6
PAT (rep.) 1,499 2,346 (36.1) 2,339 (35.9) 8,520 10,666 (20.1)
NPM (%) 8.3 11.3 11.8 10.6 15.6

Segment revenues (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Advanced Intermediates 7,083 7,300 (3.0) 8,005 (11.5) 30,336 25,561 18.7
Phenolics 10,679 13,349 (20.0) 11,699 (8.7) 49,705 42,972 15.7
Total 17,762 20,649 (14.0) 19,704 (9.9) 80,040 68,533 16.8
EBIT
Advanced Intermediates 1,149 1,327 (13.4) 1,365 (15.8) 5,551 6,160 (9.9)
% EBIT 16.2 18.2 17.1 18.3 24.1
Phenolics 876 1,877 (53.3) 1,770 (50.5) 5,945 8,671 (31.4)
% EBIT 8.2 14.1 15.1 12.0 20.2
Total EBIT 2,025 3,204 (36.8) 3,136 (35.4) 11,495 14,831 (22.5)
% EBIT 11.4 15.5 15.9 14.4 21.6
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 44


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Dhanuka Agritech
Prices have almost stabilised with supply stiffening, expect
positive 2QFY24
Q1 Financial Performance – Higher channel inventories and lower pricing impact
performance
 Q1 revenue growth of (6%) YoY – due to aggressive pricing by Chinese players and
higher channel inventories
 Q1 Volume de growth 3.5%
 Sales return – Rs240mn (Rs140mn)
 Working capital at 152 days
 Q1FY24 faced challenges in the export market

Business Highlights – Channel inventories softening during July leading positive


outlook
 1QFY24 ITI – 19.6% (FY23 – 12.75%)
 July month has been healthy in terms of both volume and value, with positive outlook
for August
 Herbicide demand has gained traction in past 5 weeks
 Pulses sowing down by 10% YoY
 Prices have either stabilised or showing upward trend.
 End of July inventory levels have fallen down due to higher offtake
 Commodity prices and availability showing positive trends for farmers, expect offtake
to further increase

Q1 Region-wise sales breakup

 North – 30% (30%)


 South – 20% (17%)
 East – 9% (9%)
 West – 41% (44%)

Q1 Segment-wise sales break-up


 Insecticides – 27% (27%)
 Fungicides – 10% (11%)
 Herbicides – 54% (52%)
 Others (PGN) – 9% (10%)

New Product Launches – 3 products and 6 new biologicals introduced in 1QFY24


 lMPLODE — 29.73% SC, maize herbicide
 MESOTRAX — 24.97% SC, herbicide for maize and sugarcane
 DEFEND- insecticide for paddy BPH
 Six Biological products
 FY24 – Two 9(3) molecules and three 9(4) molecules to be launched, already launched
two 9(4) products (as per previous con call)

Greenfield capex – Dahej project delayed by 1 month, commence from 3rd week
August
 Expecting production to start in 3rd week of August

Centrum Institutional Research 45


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 To start with production of Bifenthrin Technical, expecting positive gross contribution


 Revenues in FY24 – Rs500-600mn, ~20% gross margins, no positive EBITDA in first year
 Looking at formulation exports, expect to grow in next 3-4 years
 Overall capex – ~Rs2,600mn, Rs2,000mn to be capitalised in FY24
 One formulation unit, one insecticide MPP plant for synthetic pyrethroids, and a MPP
weedicide plant (rest as per previous concalls)
 Dahej plant EBITDA guidance – FY24 negative but positive in next 2-3 years
 EBITDA margins – 12-15%, can go up post orders from Japanese customers

Outlook and Guidance – Guidance maintained with double digit revenue growth
coupled with 50-100bps margin expansion
 FY24 Revenue – Expect double digit growth, some improvement in gross margins
 FY24 EBITDA – Expecting 50-100bps YoY growth
 Expect 2QFY24 to be better with higher volume and value with gross margin expansion
 Target of launching 8, 9(3) products across all segment in next 2 years
 Biologicals – In 3 years 5% contribution to revenues (As per previous concall)
 Insecticides share in portfolio to go up (As per previous concall)
 FY24 export guidance Rs300mn
Dhanuka Agritech (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 3,691 3,927 (6.0) 3,712 (0.6) 17,002 14,778 15.1
Cost of Goods 2,479 2,640 (6.1) 2,295 8.0 11,155 9,391 18.8
% of sales 67.2 67.2 61.8 65.6 63.5
Employee benefit expenses 341 322 5.9 285 19.5 1,263 1,205 4.8
% of sales 9.2 8.2 7.7 7.4 8.2
Other expenditure 434 450 (3.6) 354 22.9 1,798 1,548 16.2
% of sales 11.8 11.5 9.5 10.6 10.5
Operating profit 436 515 (15.3) 779 (44.0) 2,787 2,634 5.8
OPM (%) 11.8 13.1 21.0 16.4 17.8
Dep. and amor. 46 38 22.3 51 (9.4) 176 163 8.2
EBIT 390 477 (18.3) 728 (46.4) 2,611 2,471 5.7
Interest 9 8 11.8 8 16.6 31 32 (2.6)
Other income 66 169 (60.6) 147 (54.9) 448 336 33.3
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 447 637 (29.8) 867 (48.4) 3,027 2,775 9.1
Provision for tax 118 146 (19.4) 214 (45.0) 692 687 0.8
eff. tax rate 26.4 23.0 24.7 22.9 24.8
PAT (rep.) 329 491 (32.9) 653 (49.6) 2,335 2,088 11.8
NPM (%) 8.8 12.0 16.9 13.4 13.8
EPS (Rs) 7.2 10.5 (31.5) 14.3 (49.6) 51.2 44.8 14.3
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 46


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Fine Organic
Snippets from presentation – Normalcy probably returning,
subdued performance
Financial performance
 Revenues – Down 8.3%QoQ and 26.8% YoY at Rs5.5bn
 Gross margins – Contracted 990bps QoQ, 280bps YoY at 40.7%
 EBITDA margins – Contracted 810bps QoQ and contracted 290bps YoY at 25.8%
 EBITDA – Down 30.2% QoQ and down 34.2% YoY at Rs1.4bn
 PAT – Down 33.2% QoQ and down 37.6% YoY at Rs998mn
 1Q Exports – 54%, domestic – 46%
 Net Debt free company
 FY23 Asset Turnover – 5.4x (3.4x)
 FY23 ROCE – 47.3% (30.4%)
 FY23 RONW – 38.8% (26.2%)

Fine Organic (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 5,472 7,477 (26.8) 5,966 (8.3) 30,231 18,763 61.1
Cost of Goods 3,247 4,221 (23.1) 3,009 7.9 17,842 11,879 50.2
% of sales 59.3 56.5 50.4 59.0 63.3
Employee benefit expense 300 258 16.1 311 (3.6) 1,053 893 18.0
% of sales 5.5 3.5 5.2 3.5 4.8
Other expenditure 513 852 (39.8) 622 (17.6) 3,025 2,346 29.0
% of sales 9.4 11.4 10.4 10.0 12.5
Operating profit 1,412 2,146 (34.2) 2,024 (30.2) 8,311 3,645 128.0
OPM (%) 25.8 28.7 33.9 27.5 19.4
Dep. and amor. 117 111 5.8 130 (10.1) 479 399 20.0
EBIT 1,295 2,035 (36.4) 1,894 (31.6) 7,832 3,246 141.3
Interest 7 12 (41.9) 9 (25.6) 45 51 (12.2)
Other income 145 166 (12.8) 130 11.3 641 331 93.8
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 1,433 2,190 (34.6) 2,015 (28.9) 8,428 3,526 139.0
Provision for tax 428 589 (27.4) 514 (16.7) 2,229 918 142.8
eff. tax rate 29.9 26.9 25.5 26.4 26.0
PAT (rep.) 1,005 1,600 (37.2) 1,501 (33.1) 6,199 2,607 137.7
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 1
Share of Profit/(Loss) from Asso. -7 -2 -7 8.6 -18 -10
PAT (cons.) 998 1,598 (37.6) 1,494 (33.2) 6,181 2,596 138.1
NPM (%) 17.8 20.9 24.5 20.0 13.6
EPS (Rs) 32.5 52.1 (37.6) 48.7 (33.2) 201.6 84.7 138.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 47


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Galaxy Surfactants
Expect 6-8% volume growth, EBITDA/ MT at Rs20,000-22,750/
MT, still expect higher YoY EBITDA growth in FY24
Financial performance – EBITDA/ MT QoQ decline continues
 EBITDA/ MT – Calculated ~Rs20,755/ MT (Q4FY23 – Rs23,245/ MT, Q3FY23 – Rs26,396/
MT, Q2FY23 – Rs22,214/ MT, Q1FY23 – Rs26,780/ MT)
 Q1 EBITDA/ MT – ~Rs21,500/ MT, as per management
 Fatty Alcohol prices – Decreased to USD1,240/ MT vs USD2,287/ MT in Q1FY23 and
USD1,403/ MT in Q4FY23
 Capacity utilisation – 68%
 D/ E – less than 0.15x

Business performance – Expect 2H to be better than 1H


 Expect consumption to improve slowly but steadily
 Expect consumption to come back in 2024
 Depreciation of currency in Turkey and Egypt impacted overall consumption in past few
quarters
 AMET – Seeing signs of recovery, signs of improvement from 2H2023, over the past
couple of weeks again seen resurgence of food inflation, better picture by end-Q2
 North America – Specialty volumes impacted due to destocking, however volumes
improved QoQ in Q1
 Americas expected to pick up in Specialty, which shall aid volume growth
 Egypt – Consciously diverted product basket in past couple of years, 68-70% utilisation
currently
 India – Benefitting from product basket expansion, market share, lower input prices
helping volume growth from FMCG customers in terms of increasing grammage and
gaining traction
 Shampoo – ~75% water, 18-22% ingredients manufactured by Galaxy, simple shampoo
can have 3-4 to high end shampoo can have 15-20 ingredients

FY24 Guidance – EBITDA/ MT guidance of Rs20,000-22,750/ MT


 Volume growth – Aligned for sustained double digit growth, 6-8% volume growth
 EBITDA/ MT – Expect Rs20,000-22,750/ MT
 Expect 2H to be better than 1H
 Capex run rate – Rs1.50-1.70bn in India and Egypt in both segments
 Higher EBITDA growth and PAT growth higher than EBITDA growth (as per previous
concall)
 RoCE of 22%

Snippets from presentation – Stopped providing absolute


volumes, overall volume growth 7.4% YoY, EBITDA/ MT corrects
11% QoQ at ~Rs20,750/ MT
Volumes – Company stopped providing absolute volumes, indicated overall
7.4% YoY growth
 Volumes calculated based on comments provided by the company
 Overall volumes – 59.350MT (Q1FY23 – 55,272MT), based on 7.4% YoY growth
 Performance surfactants – 39,800MT, up 12% YoY, based on double-digit volume
growth YoY but flat QoQ

Centrum Institutional Research 48


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Specialty care products – 19,550MT, down 1% YoY, based on lower single-digit decline
YOY but improvement QOQ
 EBITDA/ MT – ~Rs20,755/ MT (Q4FY23 – Rs23,245/ MT, Q1FY23 – Rs26,780/ MT)

Geography wise growth performance – Stopped providing absolute volume


growth, India continues to grow in double digit, YoY AMET volume flat while
lower single digit decline ROW volumes
 Total volume growth – 7.4%
 India – Strong Double Digit Growth YoY and QoQ
 AMET – Volumes Flat YoY but decline QoQ on account of Eid Holidays
 ROW – Lower Single Digit decline YoY but improvement QoQ

Business Commentary and performance – Long term story remains intact, FY24
to witness sustainable volume led growth coupled with innovations
 Inflationary Pressures adversely impact demand for mass and masstige categories in
AMET. Inventory destocking continues in North America; adversely impacting specialty
volumes
 India remains resilient. Improving demand for premium categories aids growth.
Demand for Mass and Masstige categories remained buoyant with rural market
recovery
 RM prices remained stable with a marginal uptick towards the quarter end. Freight
rates nearly back to pre-COVID levels
 Going ahead continue to remain optimistic about the India growth story. Easing
inflationary pressures and improving macros should enable slow but steady global
recovery
 Fatty Alcohol prices in Q1 decreased to USD1,240/ MT vs USD2,287/ MT in Q1FY23 and
USD1,403/ MT in Q4FY23

Centrum Institutional Research 49


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Galaxy Surfactants (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 9,418 11,589 (18.7) 9,745 (3.4) 44,452 36,857 20.6
Cost of Goods 6,367 8,018 (20.6) 6,588 (3.4) 31,001 25,885 19.8
% of sales 67.6 69.2 67.6 69.7 70.2
Employee benefit expenses 713 619 15.3 635 12.3 2,481 2,118 17.1
% of sales 7.6 5.3 6.5 5.6 5.7
Other expenditure 1,106 1,472 (24.9) 1,177 (6.1) 5,288 4,847 9.1
% of sales 11.7 12.7 12.1 11.9 13.1
Operating profit 1,232 1,480 (16.8) 1,345 (8.4) 5,683 4,007 41.8
OPM (%) 13.1 12.8 13.8 12.8 10.9
Dep. and amor. 238 189 25.7 225 5.7 835 711 17.5
EBIT 994 1,291 (23.0) 1,120 (11.3) 4,848 3,297 47.1
Interest 57 44 29.8 61 (7.0) 217 129 68.9
Other income 25 -20 (224.5) 70 (64.6) 99 125 (21.3)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 962 1,227 (21.6) 1,129 (14.8) 4,730 3,293 43.6
Provision for tax 210 223 (6.0) 224 (6.2) 920 665 38.2
eff. tax rate 21.8 18.2 19.8 19.4 20.2
PAT (rep.) 752 1,004 (25.1) 905 (17.0) 3,810 2,628 45.0
NPM (%) 8.0 8.7 12.8 8.6 7.1
EPS (Rs) 21.2 28.3 (25.1) 25.5 (17.0) 107.5 74.1 45.0

Galaxy Surfactants - Operating Metrics


Segment volumes (MT) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Performance Surfactants 39,800 35,443 12.3 39,625 0.4 1,53,126 1,49,194 2.6
Specialty Care Products 19,550 19,829 (1.4) 18,241 7.2 77,659 85,023 (8.7)
Total 59,350 55,272 7.4 57,866 2.6 2,30,785 2,34,217 (1.5)
Segment sales (Rs mn)
Performance Surfactants 5,822 7,000 (16.8) 7,360 (20.9) 28,960 22,560 28.4
Specialty Care Products 3,621 4,570 (20.8) 2,450 47.8 15,590 14,410 8.2
Total 9,443 11,570 (18.4) 9,810 (3.7) 44,550 36,970 20.5
Realization (Rs/ MT)
Performance Surfactants 1,46,281 1,97,500 (25.9) 1,85,741 (21.2) 1,89,125 1,51,213 25.1
Specialty Care Products 1,85,217 2,30,471 (19.6) 1,34,313 37.9 2,00,749 1,69,484 18.4
Avg. realization 1,59,107 2,09,328 (24.0) 1,69,530 (6.1) 1,93,037 1,57,845 22.3
EBITDA/ MT 20,755 26,780 (22.5) 23,245 (10.7) 24,624 17,109 43.9

Geographic rev. breakup Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
India 4,144 4,636 (10.6) 3,898 6.3 19,115 14,006 36.5
AMET 2,260 3,013 (25.0) 2,534 (10.8) 12,447 11,426 8.9
ROW 3,014 3,940 (23.5) 3,313 (9.0) 12,891 11,426 12.8
Total 9,745 10,529 (7.5) 10,803 (9.8) 44,452 36,857 20.6
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 50


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

GHCL
Muted performance with margin contraction, PAT up due
exceptional gain on discontinued operations
 Revenues - Down 9% QoQ, 26% YoY at Rs10.2bn
 Gross margins - Down 200bps QoQ, expanded 560bps YoY at 62.3%
 EBITDA margins - Down 180bps QoQ, 170bps YoY at 29.3%
 EBITDA - Down 15% QoQ and 30% YoY at Rs3.0bn
 PAT -Up 70% QoQ and 22%YoY at Rs4.3bn
GHCL (Cons.)(only inorganic chemicals)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 10,169 13,652 (25.5) 11,192 (9.1) 49,671 35,580 39.6
Cost of Goods 3,837 5,916 (35.1) 3,994 (3.9) 19,472 15,258 27.6
% of sales 37.7 43.3 35.7 39.2 42.9
Employee benefit expenses 304 433 (29.7) 357 (14.8) 1,596 1,412 13.0
% of sales 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.0
Other expenditure 3,050 3,077 (0.9) 3,358 (9.2) 12,886 9,852 30.8
% of sales 30.0 22.5 30.0 25.9 27.7
Operating profit 2,979 4,227 (29.5) 3,483 (14.5) 15,717 9,058 73.5
OPM (%) 29.3 31.0 31.1 31.6 25.5
Dep. and amor. 244 301 (18.7) 268 (8.7) 1,110 1,092 1.6
EBIT 2,734 3,927 (30.4) 3,216 (15.0) 14,607 7,966 83.4
Interest 78 118 (34.5) 102 (24.0) 425 605 (29.7)
Other income 123 61 100.5 222 (44.7) 424 119 257.8
Excp. Item 2,193 641 0 - -641 0
PBT 4,972 4,510 10.2 3,335 49.1 13,966 7,480 86.7
Provision for tax 709 1,005 (29.4) 828 (14.3) 3,695 1,938 90.7
eff. tax rate 14.3 22.3 24.8 26.5 25.9
Tax adj. for earlier years 0 0 -0 -6 -0
PAT (rep.) 4,263 3,505 21.6 2,508 70.0 10,277 5,542 85.4
NPM (%) 41.4 25.6 22.0 20.5 15.5
EPS (Rs) 44.6 36.7 21.6 26.2 70.0 120.9 58.1 108.0
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Segment Revenue(Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Inorganic Chemicals 10,169 10,916 (6.8) 11,192 (9.1) 43,853 28,579 53.4
Textiles 0 2,737 (100.0) 2,500 (100.0) 10,119 9,205 9.9
Total 10,169 13,652 (25.5) 13,692 (25.7) 53,972 37,784 42.8
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 51


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Gujarat Fluorochemicals
Q1 impacted by demand/ inventory destocking, near-term pain
remains, sharp recovery expected in FY25
Financial Performance
 RoCE – 17.62 (34.1% by end-FY23)
 RoE – 14.32 (27.1% by end-FY23)

Business highlights
 New fluoropolymers doing well despite ongoing destocking
 Destocking from China ongoing due to higher volumes produced than consumption,
expect volumes to increase based on increased product offtake leading to higher
realisations
 Further capex to be made in Electrolyte salts, electrolyte additives and final electrolytes
having multiple grades
 Wind power – Expect commissioning by end-FY24, Rs250mn p.a. saving from FY25

Bulk Chemicals
 Expect near term weakness to continue till demand-supply mismatch persists in
domestic market

Fluorochemicals
 R32 capex on backburner
 Expect recovery in 2HFY24

Fluoropolymers
 Volumes corrected marginally due to destocking in Q1
 Developed fluoropolymer grades which hold growth going forward
 Q2 expected in similar lines of Q1, expect pick up from Q3 and normalisation by Q4
 User industry growth drivers remain in place
 New and higher value added grades developed in fluoropolymers
 Sampling of specialised PVDF and PFA commenced, approvals in process and expect full
utilisations in FY25

Battery chemicals/ Solar/ New age applications


 Salt and electrolyte plants on advance stage of commissioning, expected to be
commissioned by end-Q2, expect revenues to commence from FY25
 Photon exchange membrane (PEM) – Development ongoing for green hydrogen
 Battery grade PVDF – Different types for different applications, lab scale application
tested, positive feedback from customer, approval process taking time, slowed down a
little due to some slowdown in EV segment, expect approval in a couple of quarters
 PFA – Some grades going for semiconductor applications, currently supplying basic
grades to a customer, developing higher grades for multiple semiconductor
applications
 Solar PVDF – Expect validation by Q2FY24
 Plans to venture into FKM which has niche applications in aerospace and
semiconductor
 Battery chemicals – Optimum revenues after one year of start-up

Capex
 Announced Rs1.5bn for FY24

Centrum Institutional Research 52


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Some capex likely to spill over to the next year

Snippets from presentation – Refgas demand to pick up in 2H,


gradual volume growth in fluoropolymers
Bulk chemicals (Caustic soda and Chloromethanes) – Demand and pricing
pressure to continue
 Plants running at full capacity in Q1
 Caustic soda MDC prices remained weak due to overcapacities and lower demand
 Demand and prices are expected to remain muted for the next few quarters

Fluorochemicals (Refrigerants and Fluorospecialty Chemicals) – Refgas demand


expected to be strong in 2H
 Volumes and prices of the refrigerants impacted due to weak summer both in the
domestic and overseas markets
 Fluorochemicals were weak due to muted demand from the end user industries and
increased supplies from China
 Demand for refrigerants in the H2FY24 is expected to be stronger specially in the
overseas markets

Fluoropolymers (PTFE and New Fluoropolymers) – Q1 impacted due to


destocking
 Prices remained stable despite the impact on export volumes due to destocking
 Expect prices to improve in the coming quarters with improvement in the product mix
 Expect volume growth to pick up gradually with reduced impact of destocking and
increase in capacity utilization of new fluoropolymers

FY24 capex – Rs1.5bn

Centrum Institutional Research 53


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 12,093 13,340 (9.3) 14,714 (17.8) 56,847 39,536 43.8
Cost of Goods 3,461 3,646 (5.1) 4,038 (14.3) 15,424 11,871 29.9
% of sales 28.6 27.3 27.4 27.1 30.0
Employee benefit expense 918 779 17.8 847 8.4 3,221 2,655 21.3
% of sales 7.6 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.7
Power and fuel cost 2,215 2,344 (5.5) 2,365 (6.3) 9,554 6,740 41.8
% of sales 18.3 17.6 16.1 16.8 17.0
Other expenditure 2,019 1,982 1.9 2,173 (7.1) 8,176 6,295 29.9
% of sales 16.7 14.9 14.8 14.4 15.9
Operating profit 3,479 4,589 (24.2) 5,293 (34.3) 20,472 11,976 70.9
OPM (%) 28.8 34.4 36.0 36.0 30.3
Dep. and amor. 655 550 19.2 638 2.7 2,361 2,054 14.9
EBIT 2,824 4,039 (30.1) 4,655 (39.3) 18,111 9,922 82.5
Interest 280 209 34.0 348 (19.5) 1,168 784 49.0
Other income 146 262 (44.4) 186 (21.7) 904 1,314 (31.2)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 2,690 4,092 (34.3) 4,493 (40.1) 17,848 10,452 70.8
Provision for tax 678 1,058 (35.9) 1,174 (42.2) 4,617 2,693 71.4
eff. tax rate 25.2 25.9 26.1 25.9 25.8
PAT (rep.) 2,012 3,034 (33.7) 3,319 (39.4) 13,231 7,759 70.5
Minority Interest 0 -28 (100.0) 0 (100.0) -58 -113 (49.1)
PAT 2,012 3,063 (34.3) 3,319 (39.4) 13,288 7,872 68.8
NPM (%) 16.4 22.3 22.3 22.9 19.0
EPS 18.3 27.9 (34.3) 30.2 (39.4) 120.9 71.6 68.8

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Bulk Chemicals 1,670 2,910 (42.6) 2,370 (29.5) 8,450 7,300 15.8
Fluorochemicals 3,310 3,150 5.1 4,760 (30.5) 10,460 4,640 125.4
Fluoropolymers 6,740 7,100 (5.1) 7,230 (6.8) 22,570 15,570 45.0
Others 373 180 107.2 354 5.2 652 1,288 (49.4)
Total 12,093 13,340 (9.3) 14,714 (17.8) 42,132 28,798 46.3
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 54


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Heranba Industries
Snippets from presentation – Q1 Impacted by higher costs and
lower product pricing, management confident of growth in
coming quarters
Financial Performance
 EBITDA margins – Impacted by rise in RM prices, higher power costs, supply chain
related constraints and reduction in finished goods prices
 Business mix – Export Formulation 18%, Domestic Formulation 41%, Export Technical
20%, Domestic Technical 20%

Business Performance
 Confident of growth in the coming quarter owing to robust demand
 Witnessing good traction for products in the domestic markets with the monsoons
making up for Q1 deficit and adequate reservoir levels
 Ongoing capex at Sarigam and Saykha facility is shaping up well
 Company looks forward to add new product registrations, thereby expanding its
diverse customer base and driving next wave of growth

Heranba Industries (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 2,752 3,619 (24.0) 2,602 5.8 13,188 14,504 (9.1)
Cost of Goods 2,142 2,476 (13.5) 1,736 23.3 8,820 9,306 (5.2)
% of sales 77.8 68.4 66.7 66.9 64.2
Employee benefit expenses 176 150 17.2 170 3.4 671 584 14.7
% of sales 6.4 4.1 6.5 5.1 4.0
Other expenditure 475 533 (10.9) 491 (3.3) 2,138 2,016 6.1
% of sales 17.3 14.7 18.9 16.2 13.9
Operating profit -40 460 (108.7) 204 (119.7) 1,560 2,598 (39.9)
OPM (%) (1.5) 12.7 7.9 11.8 17.9
Dep. and amor. 56 53 6.6 61 (7.4) 227 198 14.9
EBIT -97 408 (123.7) 144 (167.2) 1,333 2,400 (44.5)
Interest 23 12 94.1 29 (19.2) 79 41 94.7
Other income 58 44 30.5 31 84.4 122 194 (36.8)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT -62 440 (114.0) 146 (142.3) 1,376 2,553 (46.1)
Provision for tax -6 106 (105.3) 35 (116.1) 332 662 (49.8)
eff. tax rate 9.1 24.0 23.7 24.1 25.9
PAT (rep.) -56 334 (116.8) 112 (150.4) 1,044 1,891 (44.8)
NPM (%) (2.0) 9.1 4.2 7.8 12.9
EPS (Rs) (1.4) 8.4 (116.8) 2.8 (150.4) 26.1 47.3 (44.8)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 55


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Hikal
Snippets from presentation – QoQ Performance falls drastically,
MPP for Animal Health on track
Financial performance – Improvement in YOY margins however Downfall
sequentially
 2% YoY growth in revenues – Due to change in product mix, increased demand of select
products
 Revenue Split – Crop Protection -42% and Pharma at 52% both have fallen significantly
QoQ
 EBITDA up 122% YoY – On back of softening of RM prices and several operational
improvement initiatives, change in product mix enhanced efficiencies because of
ongoing business excellence programs across value chain
 PAT – Impacted by lower operating leverage sequentially, marginal increase in finance
costs in view of interest rate hikes
 Hikal’s Panoli site undergone US FDA audit which was concluded with ‘Zero’ 483
observations

Pharmaceuticals – MPP for Animal Health on track


 EBIT margin contraction QoQ – Softening of key RM prices, lower operating leverage
on sequential basis, improvement in margins on account of business excellence
initiatives
 New MPP for Animal Health is on track at Panoli, Gujarat and is expected to be
completed in H1FY24, by end-Q2FY24
 Good traction in Generics from customers in Japan, Latin America and Middle East
geographies for the newer product portfolio
 New opportunities are under advanced stage of discussion with various global
innovators in CDMO business

Crop protection – Margin improvement


 31% QoQ decline in revenues – Disruptive channel inventory correction in
Agrochemicals space has reduced the demand of key products in the quarter
 QoQ EBIT margin contracts – Softening of input raw material prices, reduced operating
leverage sequentially, successful deployment of business excellence projects
 Demand from customers is expected to recover during H2FY24 on account of channel
inventory normalization
 New multipurpose facility at Panoli, Gujarat is currently stabilizing and commissioning
activity is going as per plan
 Have a strong pipeline of opportunities under discussion with various global innovators

Centrum Institutional Research 56


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Hikal (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 3,881 3,788 2.4 5,453 (28.8) 20,230 19,427 4.1
Cost of Goods 1,705 2,264 (24.7) 2,797 (39.1) 11,070 9,964 11.1
% of sales 43.9 59.8 51.3 54.7 51.3
Employee benefit expenses 596 432 38.0 578 3.1 2,224 2,034 9.4
% of sales 15.4 11.4 10.6 11.0 10.5
Other expenditure 1,077 865 24.5 1,197 (10.1) 4,385 4,024 9.0
% of sales 27.7 22.8 22.0 21.7 20.7
Operating profit 503 228 121.1 880 (42.9) 2,551 3,406 (25.1)
OPM (%) 13.0 6.0 16.1 12.6 17.5
Dep. and amor. 277 265 4.6 268 3.4 1,090 957 13.9
EBIT 226 -38 (701.6) 612 (63.1) 1,461 2,449 (40.4)
Interest 138 113 22.1 130 6.2 481 312 54.1
Other income 9 33 (71.3) 4 147.4 74 49 51.5
Excp. Item 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
PBT 97 -118 (182.5) 486 (80.0) 1,054 2,186 (51.8)
Provision for tax 28 -29 (195.9) 126 (77.8) 270 581 (53.5)
eff. tax rate 28.7 24.7 25.9 25.6 26.6
PAT (rep.) 69 -89 (178.1) 360 (80.8) 784 1,605 (51.2)
NPM (%) 1.8 (2.3) 409.8 6.6 3.9 8.2
EPS (Rs) 0.6 (0.7) (178.1) 2.9 (80.8) 6.4 13.0 (51.2)

Segments revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Pharmaceuticals 2,249 2,243 0.3 3,088 (27.2) 11,152 11,297 (1.3)
Crop protection 1,632 1,545 5.6 2,365 (31.0) 9,079 8,130 11.7
Total 3,880.5 3,787.9 2.4 5,452.9 (28.8) 20,230.3 19,427.2 4.1
EBIT
Pharmaceuticals 98 -82 (219.9) 362 (72.9) 650 1,510 (57.0)
% EBIT 4.4 (3.7) 11.7 5.8 13.4
Crop protection 171 103 66.1 305 (44.0) 1,033 1,151 (10.3)
% EBIT 10.5 6.6 12.9 11.4 14.2
Total EBIT 269 21 1,192.3 667 (59.7) 1,682 2,662 (36.8)
% EBIT 6.9 0.5 12.2 8.3 13.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 57


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

India Glycols
Improving QoQ performance
Financial performance
 Revenue – Down 15% YoY, mainly on account of certain low margin business that was
discontinued, Potable spirits (PS) has seen a healthy top line growth of 14.7%
 EBITDA – Increased 54% YoY, margin at 15%, led mainly by PS and Bio-based Specialities
and Perf. Chem. (BSPC)
 Revenue Split – BSPC -64%, PS -28%, Ennature Biopharma (EB) -8%
 EBIT – Potable spirits up 97%, BSPC up 73%
 In-house manufacturing of grain-based ethanol plus discontinuing some businesses
helped increase EBIT margins
 Potable Spirits (PS) margin – 18.3%
 Ennature Biopharma (BE) margin – 24.3%
 BSPC margin – 10.3%
 Average cost of fund – ~9.2%
 Loan outstanding as on jun-23 – Rs6.50mn, WC fund-based limit of Rs3.50bn and non-
fund-based limit of Rs8.5bn, current year maturity at Rs1.75bn

Business performance – Margin expansion supported by in-house ethanol


manufacturing, discontinuation of low margin business, managing opex
 Good growth in PS driven by country liquor growth in UP and UK, particularly Eastern
UP
 IMFL sales have seen a dip mainly because of sales channel optimization actions to
improve cash
 International ethanol prices stay high, some signs of softening future ethanol prices –
early to say whether trend will be sustained
 Grain based plant commissioned, plans to further debottleneck capacity. Grain based
ethanol capacities have helped mitigate impact of ethanol cost increases
 Plan for further Grain Capacity expansion to 500 KLPD in Kashipur, from the current
300KLPD, which will require an investment of ~Rs1.6bn
 NSU project execution – One reactor commissioned, full commissioning by year end,
commercial supplies made
 Ennature Biopharma commenced production of Nicotine at Kashipur doubling the
overall capacity
 SSAIL received an additional Rs24.8cr for the sale of IGL’s entire stake in SSAIL expected
date of completion of the transaction is now 30th September 2023
 Received Certificate from India Book of Records for Highest Sales of a Country Liquor
brand (Bunty Bubbly) in a year for selling 1,63,27,774 cases in a year
 FCI has stopped supplies of grains to distributors hence increase in prices of ENA.
However, ethanol blending program of Government of India is going on as planned. The
target for this year is close to 12%
 Grains required for the future part of the year is broadly 1.5 million tons and stocking
of 40 million tons present. So no shortage of grains
 Expected to see increases in bioethanol prices
 Open market prices of FCI grain prices increased to Rs24.5 along with increase in
ethanol prices to Rs.60.29 increasing it by Rs4.75. IGL is participating in the ethanol-
blending program
 80% of ethanol broadly that goes into country liquor is from molasses, 20% from grains

Centrum Institutional Research 58


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 There is no ban on supply from FCI but certain decisions and policies have been
indicative of a ban. Right now not a Ban just a holdup
 IGL running on 100% capacities right now. No shortage of RM or capacity to be seen in
any segment
 Stress prevalent in the EB segment and sales have been booked in advance. IGL
planning of a third product like ginger and lutein to break the US markets. Q3 to expect
a huge jump in branded nutraceuticals products. Revenue expected to be around
Rs2.50bn from EB this year and margin to be 30%

Bio-based specialties and performance products


 Sales down on account of discontinued no profitable sales
 Operational changes to bring down costs
 Delta wrt crude based products continues to be high putting pressure in pushing green
products
 Grain ENA is now available post commissioning of production, helping mitigate RM cost
 Working on new application areas like Oil Field, Brake Fluids, exploring collaboration
for positioning as Green Solvent (Glycol Ethers)

Potable spirits
 Growth driven by CL in UP (particularly Eastern UP) & UK and IMFL growth in Delhi &
UK
 New para-military business in UK, Tamil Nadu and Delhi, also driving growth
 In-house manufacturing of grain-based ENA enable margin improvement
 Packaging material costs are stabilizing and giving room for margin improvement
 Branded CL continues to maintain leadership position in UP & Uttarakhand
 Planning to expand the Paramilitary business in the states of Rajasthan, Manipur, West
Bengal, Mizoram, Jammu and Gujarat in the Q2
 Country liquor market share – 25-27% in UP, ~50% in Uttarakhand

Ennature biopharma
 Doubled the overall production capacity of Nicotine at Kashipur
 Wider customer base for Nicotine and business development on value-added
derivatives
 Focus on building branded nutraceutical range for portfolio diversification
 Nutra sales starting to grow slowly, with an uptick in sales of DHA 40%, Ginger and
Curcumin
 Two key clinical trials currently underway and expected to be completed later this year

Centrum Institutional Research 59


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

India Glycols (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Gross Sales 18,936 18,678 1.4 16,157 17.2 66,416 66,014 0.6
Excise 12,046 10,597 13.7 9,963 20.9 39,908 37,331 6.9
Net sales 6,890 8,081 (14.7) 6,193 11.2 26,509 28,683 (7.6)
Cost of Goods 3,982 5,306 (24.9) 3,239 23.0 15,823 19,214 (17.6)
% of sales 57.8 65.7 52.3 59.7 67.0
Employee benefit expenses 228 192 19.0 263 (13.1) 888 892 (0.4)
% of sales 3.3 2.4 4.2 3.3 3.1
Power &fuel 946 1,308 (27.7) 1,028 (8.0) 4,175 3,321 25.7
% of sales 5.0 7.0 6.4 6.3 5.0
Other expenditure 734 650 13.0 704 4.3 2,668 2,705 (1.4)
% of sales 10.7 8.0 11.4 10.1 9.4
Operating profit 1,000 625 59.9 960 4.2 2,955 2,552 15.8
OPM (%) 14.5 7.7 15.5 11.1 8.9
Dep. and amor. 205 214 (3.8) 297 (30.9) 940 803 17.0
EBIT 795 412 93.0 663 19.9 2,016 1,749 15.2
Interest 276 221 25.0 264 4.4 1,000 697 43.5
Other income 58 62 (6.0) 45 29.8 239 215 10.9
Share of Profit/(Loss) from Asso. 60 94 (35.9) 13 359.5 395 2,422 (83.7)
PBT 637 347 83.7 456 39.6 1,650 3,690 (55.3)
Provision for tax 126 71 77.4 58 116.9 240 394 (39.2)
eff. tax rate 19.7 20.4 12.7 14.5 10.7
PAT (cons.) 511 276 85.4 398 28.4 1,410 3,296 (57.2)
Minority interest 0 -14 -5 160 0
PAT 511 290 76.2 403 26.8 1,251 3,296 (62.0)
NPM (%) 7.4 3.6 6.5 4.7 11.4
EPS (Rs) 16.5 9.4 76.2 13.0 26.8 40.4 106.5 (62.0)

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Bio-based Specialities and Perf. Chem. 4,015 5,488 (26.8) 3,893 3.1 17,047 20,260 (15.9)
Potable spirits 2,350 2,049 14.7 1,867 25.8 7,545 6,865 9.9
Ennature Biopharma 526 544 (3.3) 434 21.2 1,917 1,562 22.7
Total 6,890 8,081 (14.7) 6,193 11.2 26,509 28,686 (7.6)
EBIT
Bio-based Specialities and Perf. Chem. 414 239 73.1 424 (2.3) 1,247 1,207 3.3
% EBIT 10.3 4.4 10.9 7.3 6.0
Potable spirits 430 218 97.4 292 47.3 1,017 897 13.4
% EBIT 18.3 10.6 15.6 13.5 13.1
Ennature Biopharma 128 136 (6.0) 114 12.0 487 395 23.4
% EBIT 24.3 25.0 26.3 25.4 25.3
Total EBIT 972 593 63.9 830 17.1 2,750 2,498 10.1
% EBIT 14.1 7.3 13.4 10.4 8.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 60


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

India Pesticides
Rs170mn write-off on declined product pricing, strengthening
R&D, capex on track
Financial performance – Write-offs impacted overall performance
 8% YoY Revenue degrowth – Impacted due to multiple factors especially price drops,
lower global demand and subdued volumes
 Revenue split – 79% Technical & API, 21% Formulation
 Exports revenues - Rs840mn vs Rs1.01bn YoY
 Domestic revenues – Rs1.17bn flattish YoY
 Lower EBITDA margins – Due to higher inventory cost and reduction in selling prices of
some of the products
 Impact from reduction in product selling prices – Rs171mn impact, Rs73mn owing to
sales made during Q1 and Rs980mn due to revaluation of inventories at hand at Net
Realizable Value (NRV)
 Revenue degrowth – 9-10% volume degrowth, avg. prices largely stable, prices better
for exports market however corrected for import substitute products launched last
year
 WC days – reduced by 20 days from Mar-23
 End-Q cash and eq. – Rs11.36bn
 Inventories – Rs2.25bn by end-FY23, reduced to Rs1.90bn by end-Q1, to further reduce
by Rs200mn by end-Q2
 Q1 Capacity utilisation – slightly more than 50%, improving

Business highlights – Rising contribution from new products


 In Q1, increased technical capacity by 200MT taking total technical capacity to
24,200MT
 Recently launched products receiving positive response from customers
 R&D – Added 2 senior scientists in R&D, talking with IICT, Hyderabad for technological
advice
 Good domestic demand, however prices are still falling
 Exports – Demand still weak, exports majorly to EU market
 RM – Prices stabilising, China import dependency ~17-20%
 Don’t foresee any impact from inventory write-offs unless prices correct further
 NRV impact – From import substitute products which company started from last year
 Average prices in Q1 remained stable due to higher contribution from new products
where pricing
 Domestic market – Product pricing based on per kg margins

New product launches – Four products in FY24


 Total four products
 Three technicals of which one for exports market and other two import substitutes,
one intermediate, also some formulations of the technicals
 Contribution from new products Q1 – Rs400mn, expect FY24 contribution at Rs1.70-
1.75bn
 Product diversification into pharma intermediates, stabilisers, additives – R&D team
working on the same, added new scientists for the same, expected to launch from
Hamirpur facility

Centrum Institutional Research 61


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Thiocarbamate product for US market – Supplies expected to start from next month,
Rs200mn orders for FY24

Capex – FY24 capex of Rs500mn for Sandila unit and Rs600mn for Shalvis
Specialities
 Q1 Sandila capex – Rs160mn
 Sandila plant – Rs500mn on specialized product, dedicated block, including utilities,
expected to be operational by November
 Sandila capex – For two blocks, one for technical and one for intermediate, new power
line, Rs100mn MEE for ZLD
 Shalvis Specialities Limited – Rs600mn at Hamirpur
 EC received for Shalvis’ Hamirpur project and expect to commence operations by
Q4FY24
 Expanding in stabilizer and additive product
 Asset turns – 2.25-2.50x for Sandila and Hamirpur plants

Guidance – Expect 10% growth in FY24


 FY24 Revenues – Expect 10% growth based on today’s prices and better 2H
 FY25 Revenues – Expect atleast 15% growth
 EBITDA margin – Can comfortably archive 20%, target more than 20%

India Pesticides (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 2,014 2,185 (7.8) 1,982 1.6 8,849 7,161 23.6
Cost of Goods 1,313 1,098 19.7 1,091 20.4 4,822 3,265 47.7
% of sales 65.2 50.2 55.0 54.5 45.6
Employee Benefit expense 94 85 9.8 88 6.7 355 301 18.0
% of sales 4.6 3.9 4.4 4.0 4.2
Other expenditure 380 445 (14.6) 382 (0.5) 1,704 1,458 16.9
% of sales 18.9 20.4 19.3 19.3 20.4
Operating profit 227 557 (59.2) 422 (46.1) 1,970 2,138 (7.9)
OPM (%) 11.3 25.5 21.3 22.3 29.9
Dep. and amor. 35 25 42.1 30 17.6 113 85 33.4
EBIT 192 532 (63.9) 391 (51.0) 1,856 2,053 (9.6)
Interest 13 19 (28.4) 14 (1.9) 70 69 2.1
Other income 33 33 0.4 29 13.2 131 132 (0.3)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 211 546 (61.3) 407 (48.1) 1,917 2,116 (9.4)
Provision for tax 57 135 (58.0) 105 (45.9) 484 536 (9.6)
eff. tax rate 26.9 24.7 25.8 25.3 25.3
PAT (rep.) 155 411 (62.4) 302 (48.8) 1,433 1,579 (9.3)
NPM (%) 7.5 18.5 15.0 16.0 21.7
EPS (Rs) 1.3 3.6 (62.4) 2.6 (48.8) 12.4 13.7 (9.3)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 62


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Insecticides India
Good show amidst challenging environment
Financial performance – Margins impacted by high cost inventories
 Revenue growth 14.1% YoY – On account of favourable monsoon conditions and
increasing share of Focused Maharatna products like Hachiman, Shinwa and Torry
 EBITDA margin decline – On account of liquidation of high-cost inventory from previous
year
 Maharatna sales – 61% (55%)
 Other branded sales – 39% (45%)

Business performance
 Revenues from new products – Rs2.56bn
 launched liquid version of insecticide “Mission” that will be used in cotton, ground nut,
soya bean, sugarcane, paddy and various vegetables
 The Patent Office, Government of India has granted patent to Insecticides (India)
Limited and OAT Agrio Co. Ltd entitled “Substituted Pyrazole Derivatives and
Insecticides and Fungicides” for the term of 20 years starting from 28th June 2019
 Capex on a new site acquired in Rajasthan will commence in early FY25. The Capex will
be divided into multiple phases with first phase being formulation plant and later
phases will cover Biologicals and Technicals
 Expansion at Dahej facility is delayed and expected to be operational by November
2023
 Actively seeking more than 300 registrations in Europe, Latin America and USA markets,
expect to further increase registrations in upcoming years

Segmental break-up
 Herbicides – 64% (55%)
 Insecticides – 30% (36%)
 Fungicides – 4% (5%)
 Biological & plant growth regulators – 2% (4%)

Sales by business segments


 B2C – 66% (66%)
 B2B – 31% (29%)
 Export – 3% (5%)

Regional mix
 North – 36% (22%)
 East – 7% (22%)
 West – 35% (32%)
 South – 22% (24%)

Guidance
 FY24 revenues – 10-12% growth, driven by addition of new generation products and
adding significant number of product registrations in the export market
 EBITDA margin – 9-10%

Centrum Institutional Research 63


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Insecticides India (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 6,400 5,607 14.1 3,019 112.0 18,013 15,040 19.8
Cost of Goods 5,069 4,265 18.9 2,644 91.7 13,856 11,075 25.1
% of sales 79.2 76.1 87.6 76.9 73.6
Employee benefit expense 296 250 18.5 217 36.9 984 866 13.5
% of sales 4.6 4.5 7.2 5.5 5.8
Other expenditure 577 507 13.8 441 30.9 1,954 1,401 39.5
% of sales 9.0 9.1 14.6 10.8 9.3
Operating profit 456 585 (21.9) -283 (261.4) 1,219 1,697 (28.2)
OPM (%) 7.1 10.4 (9.4) 6.8 11.3
Dep. and amor. 69 66 3.9 66 3.5 261 263 (0.9)
EBIT 388 518 (25.2) -349 (211.0) 958 1,433 (33.2)
Interest 32 14 125.0 45 (29.1) 135 66 102.8
Other income 39 2 1,907.9 4 843.1 13 43 (70.4)
Excp. Item/ Share from JV -1 -3 (64.5) 3 (132.8) -2 -4 (43.0)
PBT 396 509 (22.2) -393 (200.7) 838 1,414 (40.7)
Provision for tax 105 126 (17.1) -100 (204.4) 206 339 (39.3)
eff. tax rate 26.4 24.8 25.5 24.6 24.0
PAT (rep.) 291 383 (23.9) -293 (199.5) 632 1,074 (41.2)
NPM (%) 4.5 6.8 (9.7) 3.5 7.1
EPS (Rs) 9.8 19.4 (49.3) (9.9) (199.5) 21.4 54.4 (60.8)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 64


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Jubilant Ingrevia
Agrochem demand face headwinds while healthy demand in
pharma and CDMO
Financial performance – Stable performance and margin expansion due to cost
softening
 Coal prices softened leading to QoQ margin expansion
 Net debt – Rs4,920mn (FY23 - Rs3,120mn)
 Net Debt/ Equity – 0.18x

Speciality Chemicals – Pharma and CDMO volume growth, expect plant


utilisations to further improve
 Registered growth in volumes of Specialty products towards non-agrochemical end-use
including CDMO, resulting into normalization and sequential margins improvement of
overall segments
 Demand from customers from Agrochemical end use continue to face headwinds
mainly due to higher channel inventory at the customer end
 GMP and non-GMP plants for CDMO products, commissioned in the last quarter
ramping up as per plan and helping to meet increased demand from CDMO customers
 Focus on optimising energy cost through various initiatives
 Agro volume declined by ~25% and pharma volume increase by ~11%
 Diketene demand picking up, plant running at 55-60% capacity, expect improvement in
coming quarters
 Revenue split – 46% domestic, 54% exports
 Revenue split – 37% pharma, 33% agro, 17% industrial, 8% consumer, 5% nutrition

Nutrition & Health Solutions – Niacinamide volumes improve, maintain global


leadership
 Nutrition & Health Ingredients (NHI) business registered significant improvement in
Niacinamide volumes.
 Witness improvement in Niacinamide price realisation globally
 Focus on improving volumes and share from customers in niche segments i.e.
Cosmetics and Food grade
 Developmental work for Food grade Vitamin B4 is almost over and business is at
advance stage of finalising capex for GMP compliant facility of Vitamin B4, approval the
coming quarter
 Also focus on speciality products and planning to enhance capacity for Specialty Premix
products to cater to the improved demand
 Revenue split – 31% domestic, 69% exports
 Revenue split – 79% animal feed, 14% food, 7% cosmetics and others

Chemical Intermediates – Acetic Anhydride plant at Bharuch ramping up


 Newly commissioned Acetic Anhydride plant at Bharuch is ramping up as expected
 Business continues to improve its market share of Acetic Anhydride in domestic as well
as International market
 Price realizations of Acetic Anhydride witnessed headwinds especially from
Agrochemical end-use customers, due to the global pricing pressure in their end
products
 Rationalize sales of Ethyl Acetate due to excess supply, while the demand for Ethyl
Acetate has further impacted negatively in EU and US regions

Centrum Institutional Research 65


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 In Speciality Ethanol, business continues to rationalize sales to niche customers.


 Revenue split – 78% domestic, 22% exports
 Revenue split – 40% pharma, 5% Nutrition, 27% Agro, 29% Industrial

Growth Capex – All capex on track


 FY24 capex guidance – Rs7,000mn
 FY25 capex guidance – Rs5,000mn (as of today, can increase based on newer
opportunities)
 Nutrition & Health Solutions – GMP complaint Plant for Pharma Grade Vitamin B4 and
Niacinamide is under approval
 Approved 2 value added product and plans to add more 2 products by Q3FY24 in the
Diketene segment
 Completed Rs4,750mn capex in past 12 months, ongoing capex of Rs4,500mn
 Rs6,000mn worth capex in designing stage
Jubilant Ingrevia (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 10,750 11,658 (7.8) 11,450 (6.1) 47,727 49,494 (3.6)
Cost of Goods 5,502 6,092 (9.7) 6,479 (15.1) 25,816 27,941 (7.6)
% of sales 51.2 52.3 56.6 54.1 56.5
Employee benefit expenses 934 822 13.7 860 8.6 3,435 3,273 4.9
% of sales 8.7 7.0 7.5 7.2 6.6
Other expenditure 3,147 3,336 (5.7) 3,090 1.8 13,005 9,961 30.6
% of sales 29.3 28.6 27.0 27.2 20.1
Operating profit 1,167 1,409 (17.2) 1,021 14.3 5,471 8,318 (34.2)
OPM (%) 10.9 12.1 8.9 11.5 16.8
Dep. and amor. 323 314 3.0 298 8.2 1,222 1,234 (1.0)
EBIT 844 1,095 (23.0) 722 16.8 4,250 7,084 (40.0)
Interest 115 41 180.2 57 101.1 216 309 (30.3)
Other income 85 101 (15.7) 90 (5.6) 334 315 6.0
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 814 1,155 (29.5) 755 7.8 4,368 7,090 (38.4)
Provision for tax 237 361 (34.3) 232 2.2 1,292 2,322 (44.4)
eff. tax rate 29.1 31.3 30.7 29.6 32.8
PAT (rep.) 577 794 (27.3) 523 10.3 3,075 4,768 (35.5)
NPM (%) 5.3 6.8 4.5 6.4 9.6
EPS (Rs) 3.6 5.0 (27.0) 3.3 10.8 19.3 30.0 (35.5)
Segmental revenues (Rs mn)
Speciality Chemicals 3,638 3,825 (4.9) 4,680 (22.3) 17,984 14,755 21.9
Nutrition and health solutions 2,023 1,502 34.6 1,552 30.3 5,512 7,673 (28.2)
Chemical Intermediates 5,090 6,331 (19.6) 5,217 (2.4) 24,232 28,268 (14.3)
Total 10,750 11,658 (7.8) 11,450 (6.1) 47,727 50,696 (5.9)
Segmental EBIT (Rs mn)
Speciality Chemicals. 387 471 (17.7) 380 1.8 2,152 2,454 (12.3)
% EBIT 10.6 12.3 8.1 12.0 16.6
Nutrition and health solutions. 136 155 (12.6) 16 758.2 326 1,512 (78.4)
% EBIT 6.7 10.3 1.0 5.9 19.7
Chemical Intermediates. 494 658 (24.8) 499 (0.9) 2,437 3,745 (34.9)
% EBIT 9.7 10.4 9.6 10.1 13.2
Total EBIT 1,017 1,283 (20.7) 895 13.7 4,915 7,711 (36.3)
% EBIT 9.5 11.0 7.8 10.3 15.2
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 66


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Laxmi Organic Industries


QoQ improvement in performance, Fluorination plant
commences, SI business witnesses headwinds
Financial performance
 Q1 exports – 31% (40%)
 Cons. CFO – Rs1,717mn
 RoCE – 15%

Business performance
 Revenues by segment – Pharma 45%, Printing and packaging 28%, colours & pigment
13%, Agrochem 14%
 Exports geographies – Europe 30%, America 32%, Middle East 13%, rest of Asia Pacific
13%, Africa 11%
 Revenues from top 10 customers – 30% (34%), lower sequentially
 AI – 67% of top line, EBITDA– 32%, exports – 21%
 SI – 33% of topline; EBITDA– 68%, exports – 51%
 Capex – Rs5.5bn in Lote unit, Rs7.1bn over 3 years for Dahej Unit
 Focus on three factors, investing in Capex, maintaining a good ROCE, and Deleveraging
 Consistent balance sheet deleveraging from a D/ E of 1.06x to currently 0.12x
 Four-fold ambition – One is to continue to be in the top five in the segments globally,
two is to continue to have leading cost positions, third is to balance imports and exports
along with domestic sales, and lastly the focus is on trusted customers
 Destocking of supply chains and recession in Europe are affecting the chemical industry
tremendously along with Laxmi Organics
 Essentials and Specialties, the sales volumes increased. In Essentials, the QoQ sales
volumes grew in line with the company at 5% QoQ and 9% YoY. In Specialties, the QoQ
sales volume grew by 6% while the YoY sales volumes grew by 15%
 Utilizations have remained good for the new assets
 Commissioning has started, have the first products on SI. This year going through initial
phase of products and the sampling. Large revenues and ramp-up will be delivered next
year
 Signing a new opportunity with another MNC beyond the Miteni technology in Lote
setup for value addition. Additional infra already added in Lote setup since 50% land is
available
 When acquired Clariant's diketene chemistry it came with portfolio of about 8
products, today 50 plus products that of that chemistry

Acetyl Intermediates (AI) business – Maintaining market leadership, new


product introduction to aid future growth
 No. of products – 12+
 Capacity – 232,000MTPA+
 Running at maximum utilization
 Market opportunity for exports is upto Rs10bn, however no exceptional demand seen
for this vertical on the exports hence management consciously stepping back from
exports
 Number 1 domestically in this product and number 3 globally excluding China

Centrum Institutional Research 67


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Specialty Intermediates (SI) business – 2 new plants stabilised and commenced


commercial production
 Utilization increasing by approx. 15% YoY given investment in expansion
 No change in market share, experiencing headwinds in the supply chain of various
customer
 Market opportunity for exports is upward of Rs3.5bn, where the business is on a decent
run
 Top 5 globally, +30 products via R&D and number 1 domestically

Fluorospecialty project – Miteni plant successfully relocated


 USD2.5bn market
 There has been a Capex escalation of Rs5.5bn and peak revenues from Miteni Pant is
Rs2.10bn. This lower return is to be mitigated with expansion of the Lote Setup which
is substantially completed and signing of new contracts there

Outlook
 Continue to invest 2% of Specialties revenues for Innovation
 Continue >20% Revenue Contribution from New Products in Specialities
 Strong Innovation Pipeline – 11 products are in pilot and capex approval stage
 Infrastructure - Miteni piloting assets already in place
 New innovation Campus start up by Mar24

Laxmi Organic (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 7,336 7,566 (3.0) 7,332 0.1 27,966 30,842 (9.3)
Cost of Goods 4,779 4,580 4.3 4,880 (2.1) 18,342 21,181 (13.4)
% of sales 65.1 60.5 66.6 65.6 68.7
Employee benefit expense 347 284 22.1 292 18.9 1,159 1,244 (6.9)
% of sales 4.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0
Other expenditure 1,437 1,698 (15.4) 1,553 (7.5) 6,020 4,861 23.9
% of sales 19.6 22.4 21.2 21.5 15.8
Operating profit 773 1,004 (23.0) 607 27.4 2,445 3,556 (31.2)
OPM (%) 10.5 13.3 8.3 8.7 11.5
Dep. and amor. 210 136 54.3 230 (9.1) 724 487 48.7
EBIT 564 868 (35.1) 377 49.7 1,721 3,069 (43.9)
Interest 46 24 90.1 -12 (472.4) 113 154 (27.0)
Other income 40 21 86.7 38 3.0 121 149 (19.0)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 557 865 (35.6) 427 30.4 1,729 3,064 (43.6)
Provision for tax 174 221 (21.1) 185 (5.7) 483 560 (13.7)
eff. tax rate 31.2 25.5 43.2 27.9 18.3
PAT (rep.) 383 644 (40.5) 243 57.9 1,246 2,504 (50.2)
Minority Interest 0.0 0.2 (0.5) 0.4 0.8
PAT Cons. 383 644 (40.5) 243 57.6 1,246 2,503 (50.2)
NPM (%) 5.2 8.5 3.3 4.4 8.1
EPS (Rs) 1.4 2.4 (40.6) 0.9 57.4 4.7 9.3 (49.4)

Seg. Rev. St. (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
AI 4,768 4,918 (3.0) 4,766 0.1 18,178 18,093 0.5
SI 2,568 2,648 (3.0) 2,566 0.1 9,788 8,812 11.1
Others 0 0 - 0 - 0 3,937 (100.0)
Total 7,336 7,566 (3.0) 7,332 0.1 27,966 30,842 (9.3)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 68


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Meghmani Finechem
Weak performance due lower realisations, expect better Q2
Financial performance – Revenues decline, volumes increase while EBITDA takes
a beating
 Revenues – Down 15% YoY and 19% QoQ to Rs4.55bn due to realisation down by 26%,
volumes up by 11% YoY with commissioning of the new capacity of CPVC and
epichlorohydrin
 ROCE – 25%, ROE – 29% YoY
 Net debt to EBITDA – 1.5x in Q1FY24 vs 1.3x in Q4FY23
 Net Debt – Rs9.02bn
 Debt to Equity – 0.8x
 Capex – Rs1.08bn, Rs2.62bn pending
 Commissioned 18.34MW Wind Solar Hybrid Power Plant in Q1FY24

Business performance – Working towards next leg of growth and expansion


along with change in name
 EBITDA and PAT down due to lower realisations and higher inventory costs
 Revenue from Derivatives & Specialty Chemical grew by 52% even after drop in
realizations
 Revenue contribution from Speciality and Derivatives segment increased to 38% and
will increase further due to Capex while Chlor Alkali Stood at 62%
 Meghmani Finechem board proposed to rename the company to Epigral
 Expansion of CPVC capacity of 45,000 TPA is on schedule and expected to get
commission by Q4FY24
 Expansion of Chlorotoulenes & its value chain is on schedule and expected to get
commission by Q4FY24
 R&D centre near Ahmedabad, is almost ready and will get commissioned in Q2FY24
 High inventory costs despite raw material price going down in the last quarter is
because of high price for the epichlorohydrin including PVC for the CPVC manufacturing
along with coal and Energy Costs also being high
 Utilisation of Caustic soda plant at 75% and other products overall at 70%, realisation
of caustic soda has dropped from last quarter by 40%
 Caustic soda ECU around Rs30,500/ MT
 Major capacity addition of epoxy resin is going to be happen in India in Q2 and next 2
years expecting epoxy resin to double in capacity
 Chlorine consumption in house at 65% + capacity to be added to make it reach 75% in
a couple of years. Chlorine prices in the last quarter negative Rs3-4
 Production cost of Power to prepare Caustic Soda is around 50 to 60%. However
depends on energy prices as well. Going Green continuously is not possible and
maximum one can go green is 30 to 40%
 Destocking situation to end by 2nd half of the current year as things are getting back to
normal post Covid, China’s Covid situation and supply chain issues
 Demand Revival to be seen in western India throughout pharma and agrochem or
speciality Chem and textiles. Exports are running low. Festive season is coming so
demand will pick up in textile for which positive signs are seen
 Manufacturing caustic soda chlorine is a bottleneck. Generally on a normal situation,
the EBITDA margin that one can make on the caustic soda is around 25% to 28%
 Breakeven for caustic, as of today at Rs24,000-25,000/ MT, the company is profitable
this quarter on selling caustic soda

Centrum Institutional Research 69


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Overall debt level may be around the Rs9.00bn level and still Debt to EBITDA be under
2x

Outlook – Q2 to be better than Q1


 Right now overcapacity but to be absorbed sooner
 Try to keep more than 2x debt to EBITDA, at least
 CPVC to drive the volume because company is expanding CPVC, which will be
commissioned by Q4

Meghmani Finechem (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,549 4,988 (8.8) 5,622 (19.1) 21,884 15,509 41.1
Cost of Goods 2,742 2,242 22.3 3,081 (11.0) 11,148 7,611 46.5
% of sales 60.3 45.0 54.8 50.9 49.1
Employee benefit expense 208 283 (26.5) 226 (7.9) 866 768 12.8
% of sales 4.6 5.7 4.0 4.0 5.0
Other expenditure 647 712 (9.2) 768 (15.8) 2,981 2,036 46.4
% of sales 14.2 14.3 13.7 13.6 13.1
Operating profit 952 1,751 (45.6) 1,547 (38.5) 6,889 5,095 35.2
OPM (%) 20.9 35.1 27.5 31.5 32.9
Dep. and amor. 308 211 46.2 301 2.2 1,090 859 26.8
EBIT 644 1,540 1,245 5,800 4,236
Interest 183 118 55.2 190 (3.4) 655 443 48.0
Other income 15 20 (22.7) 45 (66.4) 80 41 94.2
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 476 1,442 (67.0) 1,101 (56.8) 5,225 3,834 36.3
Provision for tax 159 451 (64.7) 333 (52.3) 1,692 1,306 29.5
eff. tax rate 33.4 31.3 30.3 32.4 34.1
PAT 317 991 (68.0) 768 (58.7) 3,533 2,528 39.8
Minority Interest -2 0 -0 -0 0
PAT (rep.) 318 991 (67.9) 768 (58.5) 3,533 2,528 39.8
NPM (%) 7.0 19.8 13.5 16.1 16.3
EPS (Rs) 7.6 23.8 (68.2) 18.5 (58.9) 85.0 60.8 39.8
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 70


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Meghmani Organics
Demand slowdown, pricing decline results in EBITDA losses,
challenging near term outlook
Financial performance – Muted demand with lower pricing impacts overall
performance
 Revenues – Down 46% YoY and 26% QoQ, impacted by prolonged challenging global
macroeconomic environment, demand slowdown and decline in prices across industry
 EBITDA – Loss of Rs221mn, impacted due to higher cost of operation due to lower
capacity utilization coupled with destocking of inventory
 Agrochem EBIT – Loss of Rs134mn
 Pigment EBIT – Loss of Rs207mn

Pigments
 29% of total revenues
 EBITDA margin – negative 7.0% (11.4%) YoY
 Exports – 79%
 Witnessing weaker global demands and dropping prices resulting into companies
cutting down the inventory pipelines which is further hampering the demand and
causing pricing pressure, China has imposed antidumping which has impacted offtake
from Indian players

Agrochemicals
 71% of total revenues
 EBITDA margin – 0.2% (22.3%) YoY
 Exports – 88%
 Impacted by global headwinds in agrochemicals on account of excess supply in the
market causing pricing pressure, subdued demand led to lower capacity utilization
impacting operational efficiencies and high overheads has impacted the profitability

Capex
 Crop Nutrition – Meghmani Crop Nutrition Limited’s (MCNL) ‘Nano Urea’ capex plan is
progressing as planned. The commercial production of ‘Nano Urea’ is expected by
Q4FY24
 Agrochemicals – Phase II capex will be announced after Q4 FY24
 Pigment – Company’s Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) plant has been commissioned and is
under trial production, capacity ramp up will be done gradually, commissioning of Co-
gen Power Plant expected by Q3FY24, Phase II capacity enhancement capex will be
taken up after stabilization of the Phase I

Outlook
 Near term scenario looks challenging due to unfavourable global macro environment
 Adopted certain strategies such as cost rationalization wherein the management has
proactively undertaken cost control measures, clearing the high priced inventory,
optimizing the working capital utilization, and enhancing cash conversion cycle to
maintain its balance sheet strength

Centrum Institutional Research 71


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Meghmani Organics (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,258 7,834 (45.7) 5,741 (25.8) 25,526 24,985 2.2
Cost of Goods 3,092 4,354 (29.0) 3,353 (7.8) 15,091 14,532 3.8
% of sales 72.6 55.6 58.4 59.1 58.2
Employee benefit expense 296 409 (27.7) 317 (6.6) 1,295 1,196 8.3
% of sales 6.9 5.2 5.5 5.1 4.8
Other expenditure 1,090 1,753 (37.8) 1,292 (15.6) 5,730 5,472 4.7
% of sales 25.6 22.4 22.5 22.4 21.9
Operating profit -221 1,319 (116.7) 779 (128.3) 3,410 3,785 (9.9)
OPM (%) (5.2) 16.8 (2,201.8) 13.6 13.4 15.1
Dep. and amor. 236 181 30.6 226 4.4 771 627 23.0
EBIT -457 1,138 (140.1) 553 (182.6) 2,640 3,159 (16.4)
Interest 45 94 (52.7) 158 (71.6) 657 94 598.5
Other income 70 376 (81.4) 86 (18.5) 960 962 (0.2)
Excp. Item 0 0 #DIV/0! -188 (100.0) -188 -61 207.9
PBT -431 1,420 (130.4) 670 (164.4) 3,131 4,088 (23.4)
Provision for tax -86 329 (126.2) 128 (167.3) 754 1,052 (28.3)
eff. tax rate 20.0 23.2 19.2 24.1 25.7
PAT -345 1,091 (131.6) 541 (163.7) 2,377 3,036 (21.7)
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
PAT (rep.) -345 1,091 (131.6) 541 (163.7) 2,377 3,036 (21.7)
NPM (%) (8.0) 13.3 9.3 9.0 11.7
EPS (Rs) (1.4) 4.3 (131.6) 2.1 (163.7) 9.3 12.0 (21.9)

Segments revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Pigment 1,214 2,196 (44.7) 1,050 15.6 6,170 7,555 (18.3)
Agrochemicals 3,002 5,634 (46.7) 4,596 (34.7) 19,397 17,385 11.6
Others 108 200 (46.1) 128 (15.7) 537 531 1.3
Total 4,323 8,031 (46.2) 5,774 (25.1) 26,105 25,470 2.5
Inter-segmental 65 197 (66.8) 33 97.0 579 486 19.1
Net sales 4,258 7,834 (45.7) 5,741 (25.8) 25,526 24,985 2.2

EBIT Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Pigment EBIT -207 215 (195.9) -158 31.0 -43 599 (107.1)
% EBIT (17.0) 9.8 (15.0) (0.7) 7.9
Agrochemicals EBIT -134 1,404 (109.5) 799 (116.8) 3,900 3,499 11.4
% EBIT (4.5) 24.9 17.4 20.1 20.1
Others EBIT -9 17 (152.8) -10 (6.3) 20 23 (11.3)
% EBIT (8.5) 8.6 (7.6) 3.7 4.3
Total EBIT -350 1,637 (121.4) 632 (155.4) 3,877 4,121 (5.9)
% EBIT (8.1) 20.4 10.9 14.9 16.2

Segments revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Pigment 6,691 6,691 0.0 4,534 47.6 19,973 29,362 (32.0)
Agrochemicals 11,525 11,525 0.0 9,702 18.8 39,570 39,991 (1.1)

Average realization (Rs/ kg)


Pigment 181 328 (44.7) 232 (21.7) 309 257 20.1
Agrochemicals 260 489 (46.7) 474 (45.0) 490 435 12.8
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 72


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Navin Fluorine
Shutdown impacted one-off Q1, traction in CDMO with Fermion
contract, Honeywell volumes to be made up in Q2/ Q3,
optimistic outlook
Financial highlights – Lower QoQ opex due to lower CDMO activity
 QoQ decline in opex – As one-offs of Rs150mn in Q4, due to repair, consultancy fees,
new Dahej lines etc.
 Reduction in operating costs due to lower QoQ CDMO activity
 Depreciation run rate – Rs200-220mn per quarter, Rs115mn in NFIL and rest in NFASL
 Average cost of borrowing – 8.3%
 WC – 137-138days in FY23 to target of 90-100days

Business highlights – Impact due to planned and unplanned shutdown


 Weak summer impacted refgas in domestic and exports market
 Expect higher capacity utilisation in coming quarters
 Ravi – Joined last year, to start his own entrepreneurial venture, identified 2 internal
candidates, to decide in next few weeks,
 Ongoing capex – AHF – basic engineering and technology agreement with global player,
Agro specialty project to be commissioned by end-2023, R32 project – sales to
commence from Q2
 Demand volatility across the board

Specialty Chemicals – Growth from new molecules


 Agrochem dedicated plant in Dahej – Running at full capacity, expect it will run at full
capacity in Q2
 MPP – Not yet running at full capacity, expect optimal utilisation from 2024
 A large molecule to be supplied from Surat, demand almost came to zero in Q1/ Q2
2023, supplied zero volumes, supplies restarted for 2H2023, high margin product
 Growth coming from new product introductions and volumes, not so much from pricing
 New molecules – higher margins than legacy portfolio
 No immediate threat from China for new molecules, older molecules some competition
from China however not a material threat as its proportion is lower
 New capex of Rs300mn at Surat – For one particular molecule, revenue potential of
Rs45cr p.a., 15-18 months to ready the plant, positions Navin strongly to work on other
than agro space

HPP – Shutdown impact


 Growth restrained due to plant shutdowns, plants came back to normalcy and running
at optimal capacity, expected to normalise runrate from Q2
 Planned shutdown of HFO in April, while ramping up there was an issue, one of the
plants had issue in purification section, lost four weeks of production, volume request
has changed from Honeywell, volumes to be made up in Q2/ Q3, running at optimal
capacity, no significant impact on overall volumes for the year
 Honeywell – Earlier Trueup or truedown once a year, on a quarterly basis, dollar
denominated contract, cost escalation pass through in contract
 R22 Refgas – difficult to make up lost volumes after season, expect demand uptick from
Q3 and expect demand higher on YoY during Q3/ Q4FY24
 Honeywell debottlenecking – Some capex for debottlenecking, expected to be
completed by end-2024, 25% capacity enhancement

Centrum Institutional Research 73


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

CDMO – Fermion to start contributing significantly from 2025


 Fermion contract – For multiple late stage molecules, one molecule already
commercialised by Fermion, major quantities to be supplied from beginning of 2025,
currently sourcing from a supplier in Europe
 First non-fluorinated molecule – Supplied qualification quantities for the molecule,
already approved, higher quantities from Q3
 Two other molecules - Qualification quantities to be supplied in 2023-24, one
fluorination and other non-fluorinated molecule
 Expect certain baseload every quarter from next year from Fermion
 Limited volumes in 2023-24
 Some supplies from CGMP4 to Fermion
 Currently doing a lot of Phase I and late stage molecules in CDMO
 USD16mn opportunity – With a biopharma company, already supplied in FY23, scale up
expected in 2024, expect volumes to be higher post that
 CDMO new project – detailed engineering work going on, to go to board for approval
in coming quarters
 Expect nominal growth in FY24, significant increase expected in next year
 Not working on pharma opportunities which are with domestic generics players, hence
proportion of pharma to go down while material sciences to go up

Snippets from presentation – HPP revenues impacted due to


shutdown of AHF and HFO plants
Q1 performance
 Highest ever quarterly sales in the Specialty segment
 Strong year-on-year revenue growth in CDMO for the third consecutive quarter
 HPP revenue impacted due to shutdowns in AHF and HFO Plants
 Demand for R22 in Q1 was muted
 Higher Depreciation Charge and Interest on account of new capacities and associated financing
 Operating EBITDA also reflects the shutdown and associated higher costs
 Higher utilization in the coming quarters will lead to higher margin

Specialty – Revenue Rs2.30bn (Rs1.76bn)


 Highest ever quarterly sales in the Specialty segment in Q1FY24
 Strong order flow continues to strengthen long-term growth visibility
 New capability capex in Surat of Rs300mn approved by the Board
 India – 35%, international – 65%

HPP – Revenue Rs1.69bn (Rs1.52bn), incl. Honeywell revenues


 The growth was impacted due to shutdowns during the quarter
 R32 Plant stabilization in progress and sales to start in Q2FY24
 Weak summer impacted refrigerant gas sales
 India – 49%, international – 51%

CDMO – Revenue Rs930mn (Rs700mn)


 Supply agreement signed with Fermion for a period of 3 years starting CY2025 for the
CDMO Division
 Several late-stage opportunities identified and development work in progress
 Engineering work on CGMP4 in final stages of completion
 International – 100%

Centrum Institutional Research 74


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Navin Fluorine (St.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,912 3,975 23.6 6,971 (29.5) 20,774 14,534 42.9
Cost of Goods 2,027 1,823 11.2 2,837 (28.6) 8,960 6,656 34.6
% of sales 41.3 45.9 40.7 43.1 45.8
Employee benefit expenses 792 507 56.3 730 8.6 2,494 1,815 37.4
% of sales 16.1 12.7 10.5 12.0 12.5
Other expenditure 951 654 45.3 1,387 (31.4) 3,817 2,514 51.8
% of sales 19.4 16.5 19.9 18.4 17.3
Operating profit 1,142 991 15.2 2,018 (43.4) 5,503 3,548 55.1
OPM (%) 23.3 24.9 28.9 26.5 24.4
Dep. and amor. 213 124 72.4 76 180.5 626 479 30.7
EBIT 929 868 7.1 1,942 (52.2) 4,877 3,069 58.9
Interest 194 3 6,600.0 140 38.7 275 19 1,356.1
Other income 83 109 (23.9) 40 107.5 357 392 (8.9)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 818 974 (16.0) 1,842 (55.6) 4,959 3,442 44.1
Provision for tax 202 229 (11.7) 478 (57.6) 1,207 812 48.7
eff. tax rate 24.8 23.5 26.0 24.3 23.6
PAT (rep.) 615 745 (17.4) 1,364 (54.9) 3,752 2,631 42.6
NPM (%) 12.3 18.2 19.5 17.8 17.6

Segmental rev. (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Specialty 2,300 1,760 30.7 2,040 12.7 7,430 5,660 31.3
HPP 1,690 1,520 11.2 2,890 (41.5) 9,050 5,410 67.3
CDMO 930 700 32.9 2,030 (54.2) 4,370 3,470 25.9
Total 4,920 3,980 23.6 6,960 (29.3) 20,850 14,540 43.4
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 75


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Neogen Chemicals
On track with ongoing capexes, long-term guidance remains
intact
Financial Performance – Able to pass on RM increases maintaining per kg
margins
 Exports – 35%, domestic – 65%
 Inorganic- 27%, Organic- 73%
 WC – During FY23 stretched due to ramping up of capacities, expect to reach 120 days
inventory levels like FY21
 Revenues up by 11% - In-line with new capacities added in Organic and Inorganic
Chemicals through brownfield expansions
 Improvement in EBITDA led by softening RM prices especially lithium and other input
costs, further bolstered by favourable business mix
 Strong gain in organic chemicals reported at 35% due to Volume growth and better
realisations
 Inorganic degrew at 25% because of lower prices of Lithium RM while volumes
remained intact
 Consol numbers lower than standalone due to imports of RM, interunit transfers and
incomplete conversion of BuliChem. However, it is just a One-time thing to facilitate
the transfer
 Current reactor capacity – 422,000 litres
 Jun-23 debt – ~Rs5bn

Business Highlights – Focus on battery chemicals


 Revenue mix end user – Pharma 50 to 60% , agro 20%, engineering 20%, and rest 5%
 Electrolyte – Active discussion with 3-4 Indian Cell manufacturers
 Lithium Electrolyte Salt Supplies – Engaged with 10 international customers. With these
Customers setting up of higher capacity may be expected in near future. These 10
customers are from Japan, Korea, and US and some in Europe, but mostly these three
countries. They are electrolyte producers, cell producers who want to control their
whole supply chain. Many of them are dependent on China. Now they also want to add
India because in Japan and Korea capacities are not increasing at a particular level.
 Electrolyte capacity to 5,000 MT to be operational by June 2024
 Lithium Electrolyte Salts capacity to 1,000 MT (232 m3) to be operational by June 2024
 Greenfield expansion of Electrolyte and Lithium Electrolyte Salts at a new site for
dedicated battery materials
 Collective Capex – Rs4.5bn and Debt/ Equity continues to be below 1.25x
 Long term contracts – Trial production runs for 4-5 Japanese Customers, 2 Fragrance
and flavour companies, these customers may get into long-term contracts
 95% of today's batteries are being made fromLiPF6 made from China. Neogen to prove
its quality as good as China, Japan, Korea
 Reason why people are considering other than China are derisking and regulations

BuLi chemicals – Muted Q1, recovery from Q2, expect Rs60cr contribution in FY24
 BuLi involved in manufacturing N Butyl lithium and other organo lithium products
 BuLi Chem commenced the commercial production and sales under Neogen Chemicals
during the quarter. Insignificant revenue in Q1 but expected to better in Q2
 248 products developed by in house R&D facility/ 4 mfg. sites and 2 R&D facilities
 5-yr revenue CAGR – 33% and PAT CAGR – 35%

Centrum Institutional Research 76


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Acquired 100% stake in BuLi Chem from Livent in May 2023 to offer organo lithium
products to Pharma and Agrochemical Industries
 Expect 18%+ EBITDA margin due to very good demand for its products. So hopefully,
by Q3/ Q4, expected to reach full utilisation with India demand and international
demand pick up
 Company to add Rs600mn revenue from BuLi Chemicals in FY24, Q2 and Q3 to be better
than Q1 revenues

Signing technology contract with MUIS (as per precious concall)


 MUIS a Mitsubishi group company is global leader in electrolyte manufacturing
 1st ever perpetual technology license from MUIS, primarily on the manufacturing
technology and plant design issued to Neogen to be concluded before the end of this
year.
 Technology applicable for both types of batteries i.e. LFP, NMC
 Electrolyte will be only sold in India
 30,000MT plant for multiple customers, multiple recipes
 For every additional 10,000MT capacity, need to pay additional license fees
 30,000MT capacity is equivalent to 30-35GWH cell production capacity
 Signed agreement with MU Ionic Solutions Corporation, Japan in April 2023 to acquire
manufacturing technology license for electrolytes in India

Existing capex and status – Commissioning starting September


 Legacy business
 Increased organic chemical reaction capacity by 31m3 (Total 60m3)in Q4, additional
29m3 to be added by March 2024
 Inorganic chemicals – Installed lithium salt capacity of 2,400MT by Q4FY23 from
existing 1,200MT
 Battery chemicals
 New capacity of 400 MTPA (92m3) for manufacturing Specialty Lithium Salts and
additives for Electrolyte – To be commissioned by September 2023
 Pilot plant for manufacturing 250 MT Electrolyte at Vadodara facility – Based on
expected demand, enhancing capacity to 1,000 MT (earlier 400MT), to be ready by
December 2023, to come at Dahej SEZ instead of Vadodara

Guidance – Long-term guidance remains intact


 Positive on the long-term prospect and revenue guidance of Rs9-10.5bn by FY25-26 in
existing business, and Rs10-12bn by FY27 in Battery Chemicals
 Demand from the agrochemicals segment is linked to the crop cycle and is stronger
during H2

Centrum Institutional Research 77


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Neogen Chemicals (St.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 1,649 1,479 11.5 2,039 (19.1) 6,862 4,873 40.8
Cost of Goods 919 817 12.4 1,222 (24.8) 3,885 2,750 41.3
% of sales 55.7 55.2 59.9 56.6 56.4
Employee benefit expenses 129 99 30.9 128 0.6 468 315 48.6
% of sales 7.8 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.5
Other expenditure 321 317 1.2 363 (11.7) 1,392 942 47.8
% of sales 19.4 21.4 17.8 20.3 19.3
Operating profit 281 247 13.8 326 (13.9) 1,116 866 28.9
OPM (%) 17.0 16.7 16.0 16.3 17.8
Dep. and amor. 55 39 40.9 43 27.7 162 117 38.7
EBIT 226 208 8.8 283 (20.2) 954 749 27.4
Interest 108 61 76.7 93 15.2 290 191 51.8
Other income 18 10 86.5 18 1.1 46 13 239.1
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 136 156 (12.9) 207 (34.3) 710 572 24.3
Provision for tax 39 45 (14.0) 64 (39.4) 211 124 69.3
eff. tax rate 28.5 28.9 30.9 29.6 21.8
PAT (rep.) 97 111 (12.5) 143 (32.1) 500 447 11.8
NPM (%) 5.8 7.5 7.0 7.2 9.2
EPS (Rs) 3.9 4.5 (12.3) 5.7 (32.0) 20.0 17.9 11.8

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Organic Chemicals 1,210 900 34.4 1,380 (12.3) 4,632 3,630 27.6
% of total 73.3 60.8 67.6 67.5 74.5
Inorganic Chemicals 440 580 (24.1) 660 (33.3) 2,229 1,240 79.7
% of total 26.7 39.2 32.4 32.5 25.5
Total 1,650 1,480 11.5 2,040 (19.1) 6,861 4,870 40.9
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 78


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

NOCIL
Temporary hiccups affect short term performance while long
term target towards doubling global revenue share remains
intact
Financial highlights – Sequentially marginal degrowth in volumes due to exports
 Indexed volumes – 133 vs 136 in Q4 and 151 YoY in Q1FY23
 Volumes for Q1FY24 has shown marginal de-growth of 2% QoQ
 Sequentially, volumes in exports slowed down due to recessionary trends
 Selling price marginally improved by 2% QoQ
 Sequentially, domestic volumes improved marginally
 Capacity utilisation for – 63-65%
 Domestic-Export mix – 69:31

Business Highlights – Domestic demand healthy while Chinese players continue


to be aggressive amid slowdown
 Domestic demand healthy while internationally demand slowdown in Asia and US
 Slowdown in Chinese demand led to aggressive pricing by Chinese players
 Close to 25% of overall business considered specialty based on application
 Latex business contributes 10-15% of total exports
 Non-latex volumes grew 15% YoY while latex business volumes degrew 56% YoY
 Expect current volume levels to continue
 Expansion of product portfolio with international customers recently
 Major traction from exports to come from South America, Europe, and US
 ASP continues to remain low due to Chinese supplies, examining dumping guidelines
 Expect export share of revenue to expand as market stabilise
 China 35-40% of global demand
 Indian Tyre industry expected to grow from current USD9bn to USD22bn in next 10
years
NOCIL (St.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 3,967 5,089 (22.1) 3,927 1.0 16,166 15,713 2.9
Cost of Goods 2,271 2,727 (16.7) 2,334 (2.7) 8,876 8,590 3.3
% of sales 57.3 53.6 59.4 54.9 54.7
Employee benefit expenses 237 232 2.1 200 18.3 842 777 8.4
% of sales 6.0 4.6 5.1 5.2 4.9
Other expenditure 915 1,118 (18.1) 903 1.4 3,965 3,520 12.7
% of sales 23.1 22.0 23.0 24.5 22.4
Operating profit 544 1,012 (46.3) 490 10.9 2,482 2,826 (12.2)
OPM (%) 13.7 19.9 12.5 15.4 18.0
Dep. and amor. 126 134 (5.7) 136 (6.9) 544 471 15.5
EBIT 417 878 (52.5) 355 17.7 1,938 2,355 (17.7)
Interest 4 3 35.7 3 40.7 12 11 11.2
Other income 50 10 425.3 32 55.0 81 51 57.0
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 464 885 (47.6) 384 20.7 2,007 2,396 (16.2)
Provision for tax 125 229 (45.2) 100 25.0 520 636 (18.3)
eff. tax rate 27.0 25.8 26.1 25.9 26.6
PAT (rep.) 338 656 (48.5) 284 19.2 1,487 1,760 (15.5)
NPM (%) 8.4 12.9 7.2 9.2 11.2
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 79


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Oriental Aromatics
Volume led impact coupled with high cost RM, capexes deferred
Financial performance – Volumes decline continues impacting performance
 Sales volumes – Down 10% YoY and remained flat QoQ, primarily due to reduction in
sales volumes in the camphor and terpene chemical division, while there was healthy
growth in sales volumes for the Fragrance division
 Production volumes – Down 13% QoQ and 5% YoY, primarily driven by shutdown at the
Bareilly site during the quarter for 7 days due to annual maintenance. Although, there
was an increase in volumes in the Fragrance and Flavour division
 Debt – Rs2.25bn including Rs410mn term borrowings

Business performance – Uncertain situations with lower prices and subdued


demand impacting performance
 RM for the camphor and terpene chemical division continue to show a reduction,
thereby causing deflationary trends, resulting in QoQ reduction of EBITDA Margins due
to destocking of high-cost inventory
 Multiple wins in the Fragrance division with a leading FMCG company in India during
Q1
 Fragrance continued to grow in Q1 due to the new wins across all geographies
 The camphor and the terpene chemicals division continues to be under tremendous
price and demand pressure
 Alpha pinene prices are at the lowest that have been seen for more than a decade, this
division has been responsible for the reduced top line and the reduced margins for the
entire group in this quarter
 The camphor and terpene chemicals business in India continues to be in a deflationary
mode
 Camphor price correction by 12-15% QoQ in Q1

Capexes – Deferred due to global macroeconomic environment


 Looking at the Global Macro economic environment, the company is doing a complete
review of capex plans across the group. Further updates on capital expenditure will be
provided in our future announcements (rest as shared in previous concalls)
 Baroda Hydrogenation project – On track and expect commissioning by end of FY24,
capex of Rs1,500mn (Balance Rs1,000mn, debt 750mn), 1.7x asset turns, to utilise in
about one and a half years, modern plant, wide range of chemicals from the new
hydrogenation plant, ~Rs600mn capex incurred till date
 Mahad greenfield project – 1.7x asset turns, breaking ground for Phase I on 8 th March
2023, Phase I capex Rs1,000mn (Rs260mn invested, 70-75% debt)
 Greenfield Single product plant, Baroda – Completed propanol expansion, expect
revenue contribution from CY2023
 Overall capex Rs2.0-2.5bn
 ROI for all new capex at 12-15%, payback within 5-6 years (this is based on current
EBITDA margin assumption)

Centrum Institutional Research 80


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Oriental Aromatics (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 1,957 2,336 (16.2) 1,953 0.2 8,491 8,688 (2.3)
Cost of Goods 1,454 1,598 (9.0) 1,322 10.0 5,747 5,728 0.3
% of sales 74.3 68.4 67.7 67.7 65.9
Employee Benefit Expenses 134 123 9.0 132 1.7 524 484 8.3
% of sales 6.9 5.3 6.8 6.2 5.6
Manufacturing and Op. Costs 236 292 (19.2) 264 (10.7) 1,122 1,047 7.1
% of sales 12.0 12.5 13.5 13.2 12.1
Other expenditure 123 158 (22.0) 144 (14.1) 555 503 10.3
% of sales 6.3 6.8 7.4 6.5 5.8
Operating profit 9 164 (94.4) 92 (90.0) 542 925 (41.4)
OPM (%) 0.5 7.0 4.7 6.4 10.7
Dep. and amor. 48 47 3.1 50 (3.2) 194 170 14.2
EBIT -39 117 (133.1) 42 (192.3) 348 755 (53.9)
Interest 46 24 91.8 32 45.9 130 50 161.7
Other income 6 20 7 57 53
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT -79 114 (169.5) 18 (539.3) 275 759 (63.8)
Provision for tax -19 30 (162.9) 6 (406.0) 77 226 (65.7)
eff. tax rate 23.6 26.1 33.9 28.2 29.8
PAT (rep.) -60 84 (171.9) 12 (607.8) 197 533 (63.0)
NPM (%) (3.1) 3.6 0.6 2.3 6.1
EPS (Rs) (1.8) 2.5 (171.9) 0.4 (607.8) 5.9 15.8 (63.0)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 81


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

PI Industries
Cautiously optimistic as of now, shall be in better position to
provide concrete guidance post Kharif, no order deferment/
cancellations in CSM till now
Financial performance – EBITDA impact from pharma consolidation
 CFO up ~60% YoY
 Integration, acquisition, business setting costs for pharma led to EBITDA loss in pharma

Business/ operational highlights – Need to watch global agrochem situation


closely for any impact
 Indian overall agrochem exports expected to double over 3-4 years
 Chinese players’ pricing impacting generics market
 Commercialised 1 CSM product and 1 product in domestic market
 Tight control on WC
 Long term vision remains bright despite current dips
 Scale up of 13 molecules – These are not recently launched molecules, old projects
which have scaled up for customers in turn benefitting PI
 Global demand – Seen demand falling for last few quarters, not seen for PI’s molecules
 Electronic chemicals – 4-5 molecules to be commercialised in current years, 5 years
down the line could be a big business, certain percentage of overall business

CSM – No volume/ offtake related issues as of now


 Order book – USD1.8bn
 Expect 4-5 molecules commercialisations in FY24
 No demand side issues due to quality of product portfolio, molecules growing in
different markets, not yet matured

Domestic – Expect better 2H


 Expect better 2H in domestic market backed by better monsoons
 Horticulture – 30% of total domestic revenues, 25-30% share in overall industry

Pharma – FY24 in transaction, FY25 to see margin improvement


 Initial integration, business setting costs to remain for the next few quarters
 EBITDA margins in first year – ~15%
 Post normalisation – 20-24%

Guidance and outlook – Cautiously optimistic


 FY24 capex – Rs8.5-9bn in agrochem
 FY24 capex – USD10-12mn in pharma, yet to finalise though
 FY24 tax rate – 15-16% (as per previous concall)

Snippets from presentation – Strong growth in CSM, pharma


consolidation from Q1, maintained 18-20% growth guidance
with margin expansion
Financial highlights – Significant growth in CSM drives revenues coupled with
margin expansion
 CSM – 33% YoY growth, led by 29% volume growth and 4%
pricing+currency+favourable product mix

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Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Domestic – 13% YoY degrowth due to delayed monsoon


 GMs – Improved due to better product mix and Pharma business
 EBITDA margins – Improved 210bps YoY due to favourable product mix and operating
leverage
 PI Health Sciences – Revenues Rs585mn, adjusted Rs443mn, GMs 73%, adj. 75%,
EBITDA Rs43mn, adj. loss of Rs54mn

Business performance – 1 molecule commercialised in CSM and 1 in domestic


 Commercialised one new product in Exports and one in Domestic Agri Brands
 CSM order book – ~USD1.8bn
 Capex – Rs6.49bn including Pharma acquisitions of Rs5.25bn, Rs1.24bn asset capex vs
Q1FY23 capex of Rs510mn
 WC days – improved to 83 days YoY from 102 days
 CFO – Rs3.02bn (Rs2.64bn)
 Surplus cash – Rs28.07bn

Outlook – Guidance maintained at 18-20%+ revenue growth with margins


improvement
 Domestic – July turnaround in rainfall has enabled a smart pick-up in kharif plantation,
Focus on launch of new product launches and growth of the products launched over
the last few years, “Dual growth engine” with focusing on horticulture segment with
enhanced portfolio
 CSM – Global industry headwinds, particularly in the generic space continue, Cautiously
Optimistic for scale up in demand of the existing and newly commercialised products,
R&D pipeline progressing well – 4 to 5 products to be commercialized every year,
Capacity expansion in line with plan
 Health Science - Build-up of Hyderabad research center and staffing at full swing to be
Ready-for-Revenue, Operating model, functional and IT integration of Archimica S.p.A.
and Therachem Medilab, underway, Working with global advisors for business
transformation across Commercial, R&D, Manufacturing, Supply Chain, Capex
committed for upgrade of facilities and building cutting-edge capabilities
 Strategic initiatives – Strong pipeline of Biologicals and Biostimulant products at
different stages of development, Identifying new chemistries and building blocks for
future growth, Discussions continues with global innovators for development
partnership of promising R&D leads, Evaluation of opportunities for bolt-on acquisition
in pharma continues
 Continues to target 18-20% revenue growth with improvement in margins

Centrum Institutional Research 83


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

PI Industries (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 19,104 15,432 23.8 15,656 22.0 64,920 52,995 22.5
Cost of Goods 10,218 8,666 17.9 8,639 18.3 35,527 29,228 21.6
% of sales 53.5 56.2 55.2 54.7 55.2
Employee benefit expenses 1,735 1,246 39.2 1,345 29.0 5,266 4,804 9.6
% of sales 32.4 22.2 24.4 96.2 87.1
Other expenditure 2,473 2,064 19.8 2,244 10.2 8,773 7,539 16.4
% of sales 12.9 13.4 14.3 13.5 14.2
Operating profit 4,678 3,456 35.4 3,428 36.5 15,354 11,424 34.4
OPM (%) 24.5 22.4 21.9 23.7 21.6
Dep. and amor. 697 560 24.5 577 20.8 2,264 2,018 12.2
EBIT 3,981 2,896 37.5 2,851 39.6 13,090 9,406 39.2
Interest 43 36 19.4 33 30.3 269 128 110.2
Other income 469 241 94.6 495 (5.3) 1,555 1,014 53.4
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 -32
PBT 4,407 3,101 42.1 3,313 33.0 14,376 10,324 39.2
Provision for tax 625 516 21.1 519 20.4 2,148 1,890 13.7
eff. tax rate 14.2 16.6 15.7 14.9 18.3
PAT (rep.) 3,782 2,585 46.3 2,794 35.4 12,228 8,434 45.0
Share of Profit/(loss) of asso. 47 39 12 68 4
PAT Cons. 3,829 2,624 45.9 2,806 36.5 12,296 8,438 45.7
NPM (%) 19.6 16.7 17.4 18.5 15.6
EPS (Rs) 25.2 17.3 45.9 18.5 36.5 89.1 61.1 45.7

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Domestic 3,474 4,011 (13.4) 2,842 22.2 14,616 13,088 11.7
CSM 15,630 11,421 36.9 12,814 22.0 50,304 39,909 26.0
Total 15,656 13,952 12.2 16,132 (3.0) 64,920 52,997 22.5
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Agrochemicals 18,661 15,432 20.9 15,656 19.2 64,920 - -
Pharma 443 - - - - - - -
Total 19,104 15,432 23.8 15,656 22.0 64,920 - -
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Segment revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Agrochemicals 4,133 2,896 42.7 2,889 43.1 13,268 - -
% EBIT 22.1 18.8 18.5 20.4 - -
Pharma (152) - #DIV/0! (38) 300.0 (112) - -
% EBIT (34.3) - - - - -
Total 3,981 2,896 37.5 2,851 39.6 13,156 - -
% EBIT 20.8 18.8 18.2 20.3 - -

Centrum Institutional Research 84


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Privi Speciality
Cautiously optimistic on FY24, expect growth from Q2, FY24
volume led growth coupled with margin expansion, vision is to
reach Rs30bn.
Q1FY24 financial performance – Sequential recovery in operational performance
 Revenues – Up 3% QoQ, 5% YoY at Rs4.1bn
 Gross margins – Contracted 90bps QoQ, 360bps YoY at 38.0%
 EBITDA margins – Expanded 640bps QoQ, Down 170bps YoY at 13.4%
 EBITDA – Up 70% QoQ and down 7% YoY at Rs547mn
 PAT – Down 79% YoY at Rs46mn (Q4FY23 PAT negative at Rs137mn)
 Revenue from operations is Rs4.05bn, up by 11% YoY.
 Growth of 12.5% on Volumes YoY and value growth is 8.5%
 Profit of around Rs67mn because of savings on the other costs.
 Inventory levels days down sequentially from 185 to 155 days

Business performance
 Camphor season to start in 10 days for devotional purpose goes on until mid-January
80%+ requirement during these 6-7 months. Some positive movement already seen in
camphor product. Privi are trying to get as much market share as possible in this
segment.
 Only company to manufacture camphor from GST/ CST
 One year delay to achieve earlier target suggested by Chairman
 Capacity utilisation – 70% including camphor, Galax-musk, excluding new products 90%
for pine based products, 70-80% for phenol based products, to move up to 90-95%
 FY21-22 – cash accruals of Rs2.bn plus
 R7-7.5bn in projects, raised only Rs3.75bn debt.
 Current Debt Level – Rs10.8bn Expect some improvements in Debt from end of
September and a reduction of around Rs2bn by end of FY24
 Debt/EBITDA levels of privi well below the threshold of 3.5x.
 Inventory levels down from its peak of Rs8.8bn to Rs7.5bn as at Q1.
 High value of raw material continues to be there in this particular quarter due to which
the RMC percentage is somewhere around 63%
 Company does 65% of sales on contract basis and hence around 70-75% of the prices
are fixed before the start of the calendar year.
 Challenges experienced in Spot Market in Q1 with impact for July and August also.
 Privi are a 70% export house. Some improvement seen in the month of August in the
world economy towards normalcy.
 Aroma chemicals can be obtained by CST route from Pine trees and secondly from
Crude Oil. Privi has a large refinery with a capacity of 37000 tonnes.
 Company has a science-based target. Working towards going Coal Free in the future.
Company to achieve around 20 to 30% of green power usage this year.
 Galaxmusk – launched in Jan 2023 and sales picking up.
 Two Advantages of Privi over competitors one being CST processing and refinery
capacity and secondly capability of processing GTO.
 Segments struggling in the last 3 years – Fine fragrances were not doing so well mainly
due to covid pandemic and restriction of people’s movement. However, segment is
back to normalcy.

Centrum Institutional Research 85


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Current Capacity in finished goods is 48000 tonnes. Capacity utilization should be closer
than 50-70% for high speciality chemicals.
 By FY24, utilization of pine-based chemicals excluding camphor should be around 90%.
In the Citral space, utilization is about 75 to 80%. Phenol space in Jhagadia is 80-90%
and capacity in Jhagadia is 5000 tonnes.
 Galaxmusk utilisation – 40 to 50% and Camphor – 30-35%.
 Robust R&D center and facility in Navi Mumbai
 Privi bio is a company, which is into research and piloting of new products. It continues
to be a research center. Privi Bio cannot generate revenue on its own

Projects – Galax-musk and Camphor projects


 Galax-musk – 4,800MTPA at Jhagadia
 Camphor – 4,800MTPA at Mahad
 Alpha pinene is used to manufacture Dihydromyrcenol, pine oil, terpineol and
camphor.
 Beta pinene is used to manufacture Amber Fleur, amber gamma etc.

Guidance/ Outlook – Cautiously optimistic


 Debt levels – Comfortable at Rs8-8.5bn levels by end-FY25
 Camphor – Rs1-1.25bn revenues in FY24
 New products – Rs1bn from Galax-Musk
 FY24 EBITDA margins – 14.5-16.5%
 By 2028 fragrance industry -Rs30bn and CAGR growth of Rs5.8bn
 FY24 revenue growth – Growth to be driven by volumes and values. Expected Volume
increase to be 20-25%
 Rs30bn revenue target hopefully to be achieved in 3 years
 Working capital cycle to come to 120days by FY25.
Privi Speciality (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,087 3,888 5.1 3,987 2.5 16,078 14,037 14.5
Cost of Goods 2,536 2,272 11.6 2,435 4.1 9,610 8,310 15.6
% of sales 62.0 58.4 61.1 59.8 59.2
Employee benefit expenses 179 211 (15.2) 202 (11.4) 797 767 3.9
% of sales 4.4 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.5
Other expenditure 826 820 0.8 1,029 (19.7) 3,812 3,022 26.1
% of sales 20.2 21.1 25.8 23.7 21.5
Operating profit 547 586 (6.7) 321 70.3 1,859 1,938 (4.1)
OPM (%) 13.4 15.1 8.0 11.6 13.8
Dep. and amor. 307 217 41.8 314 (2.0) 1,085 747 45.3
EBIT 239 369 (35.1) 7 3,123.1 774 1,192 (35.0)
Interest 236 102 130.9 226 4.2 678 241 181.2
Other income 61 35 73.3 32 93.5 214 324 (33.9)
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 -53
PBT 65 302 (78.6) -187 (134.6) 310 1,328 (76.6)
Provision for tax 20 78 (74.6) -39 (150.7) 98 354 (72.4)
eff. tax rate 30.5 25.8 20.9 31.5 26.6
PAT (rep.) 45 224 (79.9) -148 (130.4) 213 974 (78.1)
Minority interest -1 1 -11 -9 0
PAT 46 224 (79.3) -137 (133.8) 222 974 (77.2)
NPM (%) 1.1 5.7 (3.7) 1.3 6.8
EPS (Rs) 1.2 5.7 (79.3) (3.5) (133.8) 5.7 24.9 (77.2)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 86


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Punjab Chemicals and Crop Protection


Strong Q1, new products to drive growth
Financial performance – Growth in both exports and domestic
 Revenue growth – Owing to improvement in both exports & domestic sales
 Lower gross margins – Due to product mix
 Highest ever EBITDA – Due to cost optimisation benefits
 Domestic – Rs1350mn (Rs1300mn)
 Exports – Rs1460mn (Rs1420mn)
 Q1 Capex – Rs90-95mn, Rs400mn for FY24

Capacity and utilisation


 Derabassi – 6,599MT, 81% utilisation
 Lalru – 292MT, 55% utilisation

Business performance – Products in pipeline to aid growth


 Higher contribution from high value products
 R&D – current strength 24, expected 30 by end-FY24
 More than 8 products at different development stages
 ~40% of the new enquiries from non-agchem space
 Expecting challenging industry environment for the next couple of quarters
 Focus on product costing and efficiency
 Expect products in pipeline to be commercialised aiding growth
 Revenue composition – 60% Agro, 40% performance chemicals, industrial chemicals
18% of performance chemicals (phosphorous and its compounds)
 Registration for a exports product to Europe is expected in September, exports to
commence later
 Aggressively looking for land parcels, expect to materialise in Q2/ Q3
 Focus incrementally to be on Agro, agro to be precursor for the company for growth,
robust pipeline and confident with customer feedback

Guidance – Expect growth in FY24 with 13.5-14.5% margins


 FY24 – No specific guidance, but expect growth
 EBITDA margins – 13.5-14.5%, Q2 numbers to be similar to Q1

Centrum Institutional Research 87


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Punjab Chemicals (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 2,814 2,721 3.4 1,950 44.3 10,062 9,335 7.8
Cost of Goods 1,821 1,712 6.4 1,194 52.5 6,362 5,694 11.7
% of sales 64.7 62.9 61.2 63.2 61.0
Employee benefit expenses 212 202 4.6 219 (3.3) 833 766 8.7
% of sales 7.5 7.4 11.2 8.3 8.2
Other expenditure 403 453 (11.1) 326 23.5 1,642 1,487 10.5
% of sales 14.3 16.6 16.7 16.3 15.9
Operating profit 378 354 6.8 212 78.8 1,226 1,388 (11.7)
OPM (%) 13.4 13.0 10.8 12.2 14.9
Dep. and amor. 51 46 12.7 50 3.6 190 167 14.0
EBIT 327 309 5.9 162 101.9 1,036 1,221 (15.2)
Interest 36 34 3.8 66 (46.2) 180 123 46.1
Other income 3 2 73.3 9 (71.7) 34 18 84.1
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 294 276 6.5 105 180.5 889 1,116 (20.4)
Provision for tax 75 73 2.7 73 3.3 278 282 (1.3)
eff. tax rate 25.6 26.5 69.4 31.3 25.2
PAT (rep.) 219 203 7.9 32 583.1 611 835 (26.8)
NPM (%) 7.8 7.4 1.6 6.1 8.9
EPS (Rs) 17.8 16.5 7.9 2.6 583.1 49.8 68.1 (26.8)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 88


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Rallis India
High channel inventories to impact Kharif, new MPP to add to
FY24 performance
Q1 Financial performance – Decent performance
 Revenue – Down 9% YoY
 Gross margins – Up 370bps YoY at 38.5%, benefitted from domestic vs international
mix, also product mix within both portfolios
 EBITDA – Down 2% at Rs1.1bn
 PAT – Down 7% YoY at Rs630mn
 Repaid Rs250mn WC loan
 No one-offs in Q1

Business performance – Distress selling by some players


 Distress selling by some players impacting pricing
 Except North-West India, deficient rainfall across other geographies in Q1
 Paddy and cotton sowing most affected
 Crop care ITI – 13%
 Q1 a placement season and will come to know on liquidation in Q2
 Navigated price issues by adopting portfolio level perspective, instead of product level
 Export of one new intermediate out of three products under Contract manufacturing
commenced
 New plant at Akola inaugurated for Pendi CS
 CTPR – Sourced from a domestic supplier
 Product trials on MPP commenced towards the end of Q1, in June – Difenoconazole
trials going on, to continue in Q2
 MPP – One more contract manufacturing Molecule and intermediate from Q3
 MPP – Expect 60% utilisation in FY24
 Focused on new product scale up
 China – Expect some price stability in the next couple of months, some prices have
stabilised
 Top 10-12 products contribute ~40% of revenues

New product launches – 3 Insecticides, 1 fertiliser, and 4 seeds launched


 Gateway (Chlorantraniliprole 18.5 % SC)
 Gateway Gr (Chlorantraniliprole 0.4 % GR)
 Boris Super (Pyriproxyfen 8% + Diafenthiuron 30% SE)
 1 Water Soluble Fertilizer product – AQUAFERT Tomato Grade under Crop Nutrition
 4 new products under Seeds – 9279 (Maize), 9339 (Maize), 8375 (Paddy), Bigex (Cotton)

Domestic crop care – Pricing led degrowth


 13% YoY revenue degrowth, due to delayed monsoon and falling prices, domestic crop
care declined 5% YoY
 Flattish volumes, pricing led degrowth in Q1
 Higher channel inventories due to lower pest infestation in Rabi
 Taking pricing calls more frequently

Centrum Institutional Research 89


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

International business – Volume led degrowth


 Declined 30% YoY, primarily due to volume drop arising from higher global inventories
 Volume led degrowth, pricing down less than 10% in Q1
 Pricing for major generic AIs impacted performance
 Pendi – stable pricing, positive outlook due to new access to EU market
 Incremental PEEK shipments expected in FY24, volume to pick up in next couple of
years to pre-pandemic levels
 Remain cautious on business, some RMs seen drop of over 50% YoY
 Liquidating inventories at lower margins in some cases
 Acephate price erosion significant in Brazil, key RM price corrected by ~40% YoY
 Hexaconazole – seeing some pick up in South East Asian market
 Metribuzin – expect some uptick in volumes incrementally

Seeds – Good pick up in new cotton hybrid Diggaz


 Seeds – 2% YoY degrowth
 Satisfactory placement in Q1
 New cotton hybrid Diggaz, shown good pick up – sold 400,000 packets vs. 150,000
packets YoY

Outlook
 FY24 capex – Rs1.500bn, for debottlenecking of couple of products, R&D centre
Rallis (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 7,820 8,628 (9.4) 5,226 49.6 29,670 26,039 13.9
Cost of Goods 4,810 5,535 (13.1) 3,828 25.6 19,433 16,236 19.7
% of sales 61.5 64.2 73.3 65.5 62.4
Employee benefit expenses 660 660 0.0 607 8.7 2,558 2,391 6.9
% of sales 8.4 7.6 11.6 8.6 9.2
Other expenditure 1,250 1,306 (4.3) 1,443 (13.4) 5,496 4,672 17.6
% of sales 16.0 15.1 27.6 18.5 17.9
Operating profit 1,100 1,127 (2.4) -653 (268.6) 2,183 2,741 (20.3)
OPM (%) 14.1 13.1 (12.5) 7.4 10.5
Dep. and amor. 250 247 1.3 226 10.5 914 743 22.9
EBIT 850 880 (3.4) -879 (196.7) 1,270 1,998 (36.4)
Interest 30 17 79.6 49 (39.1) 122 48 155.5
Other income 30 40 (25.4) 45 (33.8) 127 275 (53.7)
Excp. Item 0 -6 0 -6 0
PBT 850 910 (6.6) -883 (196.3) 1,281 2,224 (42.4)
Provision for tax 220 235 (6.3) -192 (214.9) 361 582 (38.0)
eff. tax rate 25.9 25.8 21.7 28.2 26.2
PAT (rep.) 630 675 (6.6) -691 (191.1) 919 1,642 (44.0)
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 -0
PAT (cons.) 630 675 (6.6) -691 (191.1) 919 1,642 (44.0)
NPM (%) 8.0 7.8 (13.1) 3.1 6.2
EPS (Rs) 3.2 3.5 (6.6) (3.6) (191.1) 4.7 8.4 (44.0)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 90


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Rossari Biotech
Expect to grow in FY24 keeping margins intact
Financial performance
 Consolidated – Revenues down 6% YoY, GMs up 950bps YoY at 29.5%, EBITDA margins
up 80bps YoY at 14.1%
 ~20% volume growth YoY achieved and lower cons. revenues by 6 % are mainly pricing
issues, textile almost stagnant in terms of volumes
 Standalone – Revenues up 10.5% YoY, EBITDA margins up 200bps YoY at 13.6%, PAT up
by 40% YoY
 Completion of 16% stake in Tristar – On 12th April 2023 (Now 100% subsidiary),
aggregate consideration of Rs169mn
 QoQ GM expansion – Supported by steady RM prices
 Revenue split- HPPC (68.9%), TSC (24.2%) and AHN (6.9%)
 Overall capacity – 354,100 MTPA

Business performance
 Capacity utilization at Unitop – In last three months, including July, has been
significantly good at about 85-90% plus utilization
 RM prices – Currently more or less steady; however last two, three weeks seeing some
headwind in the prices. In HPPC, price correction or increase can come quickly and it is
passed on to the customer immediately
 New products to give healthy margin and not focus on quantity or volume, HPPC
Business to fill in the capacity
 Tristar – Seeing some pressure from the European market, but management thinks this
coming quarter should be a better quarter for them
 Strong upcoming pipeline of new product launches centered on customer
requirements, higher product excellence and process sustainability
 Company had taken about a week’s planned shutdown in April for transitioning into
SAP S/4 and HANA across the group as a part of the digitization initiative and then about
another week for system stabilisation. This planned migration resulted in lower sales in
April2023
 Progress in devising innovative solutions tailored to chemical needs of Indian Railways
 Now a lot of the sales happens on an inter-company basis where all these newer
businesses that are coming into Unitop, Tristar, are being done through Rossari

Segmental performance
 HPPC – Revenue down 11% YoY and up 7 %QoQ
 TSC – Revenue up 6% YoY and 1% QoQ
 AHN – Revenue Up 17% YoY and down 33% QoQ
 AHN – Lower QoQ while it showed a growth YoY. The first quarter is generally a soft
quarter and company is confident that revenues will pick-up through the year
 AHN – R&D team is actively designing smart, sustainable aquaculture solutions that are
tailored to meet the specific needs of farmers
 HPPC – Remarkable strides in R&D creating morpholine based derivatives serving as
integral components for Pharma API
 Exports, this quarter Rs800mn roughly about 20% of turnover is on the export side, no
QoQ growth, last quarter also was at Rs800mn, so no traction seen there, impacted
from the textiles slow down

Centrum Institutional Research 91


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 The headwinds in Europe and US are also in the textile space. At least the next two
quarters expected to be slightly sluggish. No growth coming in, but happy to maintain
the current run rate

Guidance – (From previous concall)


 EBITDA margins – Expected to be maintained
 AHN –30-35% growth in FY24, high value high margin business
 FY24 – 15-20% revenue growth with margin expansion
 EBITDA margins – to come back to 16-17% over the next two years
 FY24 Rs300-400mn
 HPC – to double in 3-4 years
 TSC – to double in 4-5 years
 AHN – to double in 2 years
 Asset Turnover – 4 to 5x
 20% PAT growth FY24
 No material capex over the next couple of years, can double the revenues from current
assets
 Tristar to have a better Q2.
 Management wants the business to be looked upon as a consolidated entity and hence
encouraging to focus on the Group growth and not on individual subsidiary growths.

Rossari Biotech (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,106 4,347 (5.5) 4,065 1.0 16,559 14,830 11.7
Cost of Goods 2,895 3,106 (6.8) 2,863 1.1 11,710 11,050 6.0
% of sales 70.5 71.5 70.4 70.7 74.5
Employee benefit expenses 245 235 4.3 268 (8.4) 986 679 45.2
% of sales 6.0 5.4 6.6 6.0 4.6
Other expenditure 388 428 (9.4) 388 (0.0) 1,632 1,299 25.6
% of sales 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.9 8.8
Operating profit 577 577 0.0 546 5.8 2,230 1,801 23.8
OPM (%) 14.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 12.1
Dep. and amor. 141 153 (7.9) 160 (11.9) 629 509 23.7
EBIT 436 424 2.9 386 13.1 1,601 1,292 23.9
Interest 63 51 24.4 43 45.3 223 109 105.6
Other income 22 7 194.4 28 (22.0) 55 154 (64.3)
Excp. Item -0 6 (107.9) 2 (123.9) 10 15 (38.1)
PBT 395 387 2.0 372 6.0 1,442 1,353 6.6
Provision for tax 102 100 2.2 83 24.1 370 379 (2.4)
eff. tax rate 25.9 25.9 22.2 25.6 28.0
PAT (rep.) 292 287 1.9 290 0.8 1,073 974 10.1
NPM (%) 7.1 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.5
EPS (Rs) 5.3 5.2 1.7 5.3 0.8 19.4 17.7 10.0

Segmental (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
HPPC 2,829 3,165 (10.6) 2,654 6.6 11,569 9,774 18.4
TSC 993 939 5.8 985 0.8 3,737 3,970 (5.8)
AHN 285 243 17.2 425 (32.9) 1,257 1,087 15.6
Total 4,107 4,347 (5.5) 4,064 1.1 16,563 14,830 11.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 92


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

SH Kelkar
10% revenue growth forecast with 16% margins, WC and debt
to remain elevated due to higher revenue
Financial performance – Fragrance business witness strong recovery coupled
with margin expansion
 Revenue – Steady growth of 8% YoY, domestically growth at 12% YoY, up 6% in constant
currency, due to healthy traction from major customers and a comparatively lower
base in the previous year
 Revenue growth in Europe – 3%
 Operating EBITDA – Up 33.4% YoY, EBITDA margin of 16.5%
 Achieved strong growth in profitability primarily aided by better pricing in some
categories
 Fragrance and Flavours revenues (excluding global ingredients) – Up 8.6% to
Rs4,290mn
 Cash profit at Rs492mn as against Rs421mn, growing by 16.9%

Business performance – MOU entered to foster backward integration, current


trends to sustain
 European region showed sharp improvement in margins, Q1 margins expected to be
sustainable
 Owing to the dynamic nature of the global RM situation, might experience some margin
volatility. However, expect to maintain sustainably normalize full-year margins to over
16%
 Europe though has a smaller market share but in Italy in a small market, as well a good
enough market share presently
 Capacity utilisation at 85% in European Operations. Company is trying to use the
capacity in India to service clients in Europe
 Softer demand from international markets leading to a lower downturn for the flavours
business
 Company to be fully backward integrated by entering agreements with third party
vendors from Q4 onwards and reduce dependence from China
 Entered into third party MOU for backward integration, reducing reliance on China in
the global ingredients segment (help to achieve 10% EBIT margin long term, currently
loss)
 Post integration, import from China to reduce from currently 25% to 18-20%
 Recovery of Gross margins due to pricing strategy and good rapport with customers.
RM prices are also decreasing but may not sustain for long term
 Continue to remain the lowest cost producers of global ingredients because of good
domestic supply and improving technology. These factors are also capable to meet the
Chinese costs / competition
 India utilization levels are very low, 45% for fragrance and flavours
 FY24 and 25 Margins to remain stable above 16% levels
 Aggressive marketing to be done in the coming quarter now that RM prices have
dropped to gain volume and market share
 Due to increase in sales working capital in receivables have gone up and hence gross
debt is on an increase. Further due to RM prices going down company looking at
stocking up inventory. Coming quarter WC to Sales Ratio to be 130 days at normalcy
 Debts on the books to stay on hold as the company is focusing on growth and wants to
use the FCFF to invest in the Business and Working capital requirements

Centrum Institutional Research 93


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Global Ingredients segment witnessed cost pressures owing to RM shortages and


dependence on China
 Partnering with global food MNC for collaborating in flavour, ingredients segment
 RFQ signed with multiple MNCs – Revenues and margins to be generated and expected
by Q4 this year or Q1 next year. Next few months the company will have a better idea
on the design and submissions
 Close to breaking even in 2HFY24 in the global ingredients segment
 10% of global ingredients capacity used captively
 Large MNCs open to SH Kelkar as 2nd or 3rd level supplier
 Manufacturing capex in Indonesia to strengthen presence in SE Asia
 Egypt and Sri Lanka geographies facing challenges and expect delayed revival of
normalcy
 SE Asia Fragrance demand to be next leg of growth, large enough to be categorised as
a segment
 RFQs revenue potential Rs1bn, testing delayed and no timelines shared

Fragrance division
 Q1FY24 Revenues – Rs3,800mn (Rs3,430mn), EBIT – Rs530mn (Rs420mn) (Up 24.5%)
 Q1FY24 EBIT margins at 13.9%, expand 150 bps on YoY basis
 Revenue split – India 56%, Europe 29%, RoW 15%

Flavour Division
 Q1FY24 Revenues – Rs490mn (Rs530mn), EBIT – Rs40mn (Rs50mn) (Down 16.9%)
 Q1FY24 EBIT margins at 8.0%, Down 90 bps on YoY basis
 Revenue split – India 78%, RoW 22%
 CAGR expected at around 12 to 14% in the full year.

Global Ingredients
 Q1FY24 Revenues – Rs140mn (Rs160mn), EBIT Loss – Rs30mn (Rs60mn)
 Orderbook – Rs150-160mn (ramp up post backward integration)

Geographical split
 India – Rs2,540mn (Rs2,260mn) (Up 12.1%)
 Europe – Rs1,080mn (Rs980mn) (Up 10.0%)
 RoW – Rs680mn (Rs710mn) (Down 4.7%)

Guidance/ Outlook
 Long term margin guidance at 16%
 Topline growth at 10%
 India and Europe business growth ~10%
 Working capital guidance 130 days
 No plans to reduce debt due to increasing business

Centrum Institutional Research 94


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

SH Kelkar (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,455 4,150 7.3 4,698 (5.2) 16,865 15,642 7.8
Cost of Goods 2,496 2,501 (0.2) 2,784 (10.4) 10,047 9,255 8.6
% of sales 56.0 60.3 59.3 59.6 59.2
Employee benefit expenses 603 486 24.0 569 6.0 2,118 1,988 6.6
% of sales 13.5 11.7 12.1 12.6 12.7
Other expenditure 652 614 6.2 699 (6.7) 2,527 2,253 12.2
% of sales 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.4
Operating profit 704 549 28.3 646 9.0 2,173 2,146 1.3
OPM (%) 15.8 13.2 13.8 12.9 13.7
Dep. and amor. 216 198 9.3 205 5.5 805 718 12.1
EBIT 488 351 39.1 441 10.7 1,369 1,429 (4.2)
Interest 102 50 104.2 75 36.4 239 162 47.7
Other income 5 2 112.5 13 (61.4) 118 175 (32.6)
Excp. Item 0 12 -218 -203 -120 69.5
PBT 391 315 23.9 162 141.8 1,045 1,322 (21.0)
Provision for tax 118 83 42.3 177 (33.6) 414 -172 (341.3)
eff. tax rate 30.1 26.2 109.4 39.6 (13.0)
PAT 274 233 17.4 -15 (1,899.3) 631 1,494 (57.8)
Minority Interest 6 16 (62.6) -12 (151.7) 18 9 109.4
Share of Profit/(Loss) from Asso. 0 -1 (100.0) 0 -2 0 (633.3)
PAT (rep.) 267 216 23.8 -3 (7,964.7) 612 1,486 (58.8)
NPM (%) 6.1 5.6 (0.3) 3.7 9.4
EPS (Rs) 1.9 1.6 23.8 0.2 1,057.6 4.4 10.5 (58.0)

Segmental revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Fragrance 3,940 3,580 10.1 3,976 (0.9) 14,629 14,190 3.1
Flavours 493 530 (6.9) 722 (31.7) 2,136 1,406 51.9
Other operating income 22 36 (40.6) 27 (18.9) 96 46 109.6
Total 4,455 4,146 7.4 4,724 (5.7) 16,861 15,642 7.8
EBIT
Fragrance 498 360 38.4 425 17.1 1,404 1,653 (15.1)
% EBIT 12.6 10.1 10.7 9.6 11.6
Flavours 39 50 (21.4) 128 (69.2) 129 168 (23.0)
% EBIT 8.0 9.4 17.7 6.0 11.9
Total EBIT 537 410 31.1 553 (2.8) 1,533 1,820 (15.8)
% EBIT 12.1 9.9 11.7 9.1 11.6
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 95


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Sharda Cropchem
Lower volumes in Europe and LATAM with reduced realisations
in US affect performance, still ambitious target of 8-10%
revenue growth in FY24
Financial performance – One-off inventory losses of Rs710mn impact
performance
 Agrochemicals – Rs4.75bn (Rs6.15bn), down 23% YoY
 Non-Agrochemicals – Rs1.62bn (Rs2.10bn), down 23% YoY
 23%YoY de-growth – Degrowth 18% through prices/ product mix, 11% volume de-
growth, 6.5% forex benefit
 One-off inventory loss on account of RM prices fall – Rs710mn, excluding impact
EBITDA could have been Rs117mn
 Capex – Rs1,150mn
 Sales return – Rs1.4bn

Segment revenue break-up – Decline all across


 Herbicide – Rs2.52bn (Rs3.52bn), down 28%
 Insecticide – Rs990mn (Rs1.05bn), down 6%
 Fungicide – Rs1.24bn (Rs1.57bn), down 21%

Q1 Region wise overall revenue growth for Agrochemicals


 Europe – Down 21% YoY (52% of total rev.)
 NAFTA – Down 14% YoY (35% of total rev.)
 LATAM – Down 51% (8% of total rev.)
 RoW – Down 16% (5% of total rev.)

Region wise overall revenue growth for Non Agrochemical


 Europe – Down 64% YoY (13% of total rev.)
 NAFTA – Up 26% YoY (52%)
 LATAM – Down 16% (7%)
 RoW – Up 96% (28%)

Business highlights
 Revenues de-grown primarily due to lower sales in Europe and NAFTA Region
 Lower volumes in Europe and LATAM regions on account of high inflation, ongoing
recession, and adverse weather conditions
 RM and Finished goods sales prices reduced substantially leading to stock revaluation
as per Accounting Policy in turn impacting the gross profit and profitability to the tune
of Rs710mn
 Experienced significant decrease in product price realizations, especially in USA
 Hoping improving trend in Q2FY24, normalcy to resume once Chinese excess supply is
absorbed into the system, difficult to predict timelines
 Total product registrations 2,859 with 1,118 registrations in progress (130-150 unique
molecules)

China dynamics
 Significant amount of material supplies from China in global agrochemicals market
 Some companies which had 4-5 plants are now operating only couple of plants due to
excess inventories

Centrum Institutional Research 96


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 New capacity additions in past couple of years


 No clarity of how much excess inventories and when the issue will be resolved

Working Capital
 Net WC days – 120 days (91 days)
 Inventory days – 85 days (68 days)
 Receivable days – 120 days (109 days)
 Creditor days – 85 days (86 days)

Guidance
 FY24 growth – 8-10%
 FY24 capex – Rs4bn

Sharda Cropchem (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 6,378 8,245 -22.7 14,818 -57.0 40,452 35,798 13.0
Cost of Goods 5,820 6,151 -5.4 10,139 -42.6 28,608 24,998 14.4
% of sales 91.3 74.6 1,665.8 68.4 70.7 69.8
Employee benefit expenses 92 85 8.4 152 -39.5 448 442 1.4
% of sales 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Other expenditure 1,058 1,480 -28.5 1,345 -21.3 4,965 3,529 40.7
% of sales 16.6 18.0 9.1 12.3 9.9
Operating profit -593 529 -212.1 3,182 -118.6 6,431 6,829 -5.8
OPM (%) -9.3 6.4 21.5 15.9 19.1
Dep. and amor. 703 547 28.4 677 3.9 2,481 2,453 1.1
EBIT -1,295 -19 6,883.9 2,506 -151.7 3,950 4,376 -9.7
Interest 13 8 70.0 25 -47.9 45 22 103.8
Other income 260 203 28.5 70 269.4 403 289 39.5
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT -1,048 176 -694.3 2,551 -141.1 4,307 4,642 -7.2
Provision for tax -162 -50 223.2 563 -128.7 888 1,150 -22.8
eff. tax rate 15.4 -28.4 22.1 20.6 24.8
PAT -886 226 -491.5 1,989 -144.6 3,420 3,493 -2.1
Minority Interest -0 0 -122.7 0 -102.7 0 0 -2.5
PAT (rep.) -886 226 -491.5 1,988 -144.6 3,420 3,493 -2.1
NPM (%) -13 3 13 8 10
EPS (Rs) -10 3 -491.5 22 -144.6 38 39 -2.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 97


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

SRF
Have to wait for FY24 growth guidance, for refgas expect 2H to
be better than in 1H, BOPET in worst downcycle and expected
to continue in medium term
Financials – Higher interest outgo due to higher debt
 Higher interest out go – ~2x YoY, due to higher interest rate and higher borrowings
 FY24 capex – Rs28-29bn for specchem and fluorochemicals, additional Rs400+cr for
aluminium foils

Chemicals (Specialty Chemicals) – Have to wait for growth guidance for CB


segment
 Healthy growth in sales and margins YoY in Q1
 10% YoY revenue growth, margin have improved YoY
 Commissioned some flexible and dedicated facilities recently, capacity enhancement
to augment performance in 2HFY24
 No reduction in enquiries for 6-7 AIs
 Decline in RM pricing to be passed on which will impact pricing
 Anhydrous Hydrogen Chloride (AHCL) – Approved a project to expand capacity of AHCL
which finds application in pharma intermediates at Dahej at a projected cost of
Rs16.08cr
 Dedicated plants – 15-16, revenues ~80-85%
 Mostly new plants to be capitalised in H2 are dedicated, incrementally more revenue
contribution from dedicated plants
 Majority revenues dependent on agrochemicals, inventory rationalisation happening
primarily in this segment
 No demand burn/ cancellations
 Agrochem – No demand challenges from the market
 Inventories – At distributor level
 Di and Tri-fluoro alkyl intermediates – Probably the largest globally, significant market
share
 Pharma intermediate plant (PIP) – Commissioned only in May, ramp up over the next
3-5 years, expect some large revenues in FY25

Chemicals (Fluorochemicals) – Expect Q2 to be better than Q1, 2H to be better


than 1H
 Volume drop due to weak domestic summer and China dumping in international
markets, also prices declined
 Chloromethanes demand sluggish in both domestic and international markets
 Domestic HFC potential remains strong
 Expect to commission PTFE facility soon
 PTFE – To be commissioned in Q2/ early-Q3, expect 1,000-1,500MT sales in FY24
 Significant traction expected from US market in 2H than in 1H
 HFC – Expect some growth YoY in FY24
 Underlying potential for HFCs in domestic and global space remains strong, some US
manufacturers to cut down capacities
 Inventory destocking may impact till Q3
 R32 – Will be better placed than competition, material coming from China, impacting
pricing

Centrum Institutional Research 98


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 ACs in trucks – Expect additional volumes from FY25, primarily 134a, have flexibility at
Bhiwadi facility to manufacture for domestic and international markets
 FY24 Fluorochemical capex – Rs11bn

Packaging Film Business (BOPET and BOPP Films) – Downcycle to continue in


medium term
 Huge capacity additions in India and overseas, downcycle to continue in medium term
 BOPET – Worst downcycle seen over the past few years
 Aluminium foil – Expect full benefit from FY25

Technical Textiles Business (Tyre Cord Fabrics, Industrial Yarns, Belting Fabrics) –
Goring demand for high quality fabrics
 Growing demand for high quality belting fabrics
 Growth to continue from capacity expansions in next year

Snippets from press release – Benign business outlook for PFB


and CB segments for the next couple of quarters
 *PFB segment* – While we have seen a significant drop in profits, a large portion is
attributable to the expected down cycle of the Packaging Films Business. This is
expected to continue for the medium-term
 *CB segment* – Has been affected by lower sales in Fluorochemicals Business due to a
very mild summer and general weakness in the industrial chemicals segment. The
Specialty Chemicals Business has performed as per expectations with growth over last
year
 *Global inventories* – There is a lot of inventory unwinding going on globally and this
will have some impact on the business (CB) in the next couple of quarters
 On the positive side, the longer-term projects remain on track, and expect to keep our
capex momentum intact

Snippets from presentation – Challenging time for SpecChem


and Refgas in near term, PFB to continue margin pressure in
medium term
Chemicals (Specialty Chemicals) – Inventory destocking to impact performance
in near-term
 Inventory rationalization by customers, some PO rescheduling, currently being
witnessed
 The segment reported healthy performance through – Sustainable efficiency
improvements through technology interventions, Healthy growth in margin and sales
YoY
 Ongoing projects progressing as per plan. Expected to commission over the next few
quarters; likely to contribute positively going forward
 Engagement with customers for complex downstream products / AIs remains strong –
Launched 2 new products each in Agro and Pharma
 Market Trends – Agrochemical companies focusing on inventory rationalization,
Fundamentally, India's momentum as an alternate specialty chemicals manufacturing
base remains intact, Certain key RM prices continue to show signs of softening; still
higher than their long-term average
 Outlook specialty chemicals – Current inventory rationalization seems transitory; may
last for a couple of quarters. However, customer traction still strong, China + 1 remains
intact, global customers’ de-risking theme continues, Focus on commissioning new
plants and their ramp up, In essence, some temporary hiccups witnessed; counter-
measures being implemented

Centrum Institutional Research 99


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Chemicals (Fluorochemicals) – Short-term pressure, expect better performance


in H2
 Business performance was impacted due to – Chinese dumping across geographies due
to weak local demand, Weak domestic summer season impacted HFCs demand,
Industrial chemicals witnessed lower demand due to stagnant pharma and agro
industry
 Business to focus on commissioning and ramp up of ongoing projects in FY24 – Projects
close to Rs11bn expected to be capitalised in FY24, PTFE trial runs initiated – customer
approvals to commence shortly
 Market Trends – De-stocking of HFCs to continue in the short-term, However, long term
global demand outlook for refrigerant gas remains strong and sustainable, Mandatory
installation of AC systems in truck cabins expected to bolster the domestic demand for
ref gases in the future – new avenue for industry growth
 Outlook Fluorochemicals – Industrial chemical prices may witness continued pressure,
Lower Chinese inventory levels over the next two quarters, Strong demand outlook of
HFCs, Focus on PTFE product approvals to ensure plant ramp up, Expect better
performance in H2FY24, long term story remains intact

Packaging Film Business (BOPET and BOPP Films) – Margin pressure to continue
 Business continues to face significant margin pressure, commodity prices falling leading
to inventory corrections
 Hungary operations showing improvement compared to Q4FY23
 SRF’s VAP portfolio, customer contracts and ETDBW ensures differentiated
performance against peers
 Aluminium foil project on track and expected to be commissioned in Q3FY24
 Market Trends – Several BOPP & BOPET film lines commissioned in India and globally
in the recent past, some deferment / delays being witnessed, Demand supply mismatch
scenario expected to continue, especially in BOPET, Sustainability initiatives, PCR, mono
family structures, etc. likely to gain traction
 Outlook – Demand supply mismatch and pressure on margins expected to continue,
Downcycle at its peak; industry overcapacity to taper over time, Focus on value-added
products both in BOPP and BOPET, Continue to focus on sustainability initiatives and
cost optimization

Technical Textiles Business (Tyre Cord Fabrics, Industrial Yarns, Belting Fabrics) –
NTCF demand expected to be stable
 Lower Caprolactam price impacted overall revenues
 NTCF volumes gaining traction compared to Q4FY23
 Improved performance of Belting Fabrics and Polyester Industrial Yarn, with greater
emphasis on high-end VAP sales
 Phase – 1 of the Solid Woven Fabric, which is a part of the Belting Fabrics portfolio
successfully commissioned
 Market Trends – Government focus on infra development to contribute to growth,
Demand for Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric expected to remain stable, Domestic demand for
Belting Fabrics expected to remain strong
 Outlook – Higher operating leverage and cost optimization by capacity rationalization
across various plants, Demand for NTCF expected to be stable, Growth in BF and PIY
as expansions get completed next year, Stable business going forward, reasonable
order book for ensuing quarters

Others (Coated and Laminated Fabrics) – Highest ever domestic sales and
margins in coated fabrics
 Coated fabrics – SRF continues to maintain its leadership position in the domestic
market – Achieved highest-ever domestic sales and EBITDA, Witnessed increased

Centrum Institutional Research 100


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

demand for all categories, particularly VAPs, Demand expected to be strong in the near-
future
 Laminated fabrics – SRF retained its price leadership during the quarter – Plant
operating at full capacity, Demand expected to remain stable
SRF (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 33,384 38,947 (14.3) 37,781 (11.6) 1,48,703 1,24,337 19.6
Cost of Goods 17,005 18,578 (8.5) 18,884 (10.0) 73,935 60,669 21.9
% of sales 50.9 47.7 50.0 49.7 48.8
Power, Fuel and water 3,528 4,103 (14.0) 3,440 2.6 14,723 11,356 29.6
% of sales 10.6 10.5 9.1 9.9 9.1
Employee Benefit Expenses 2,180 1,942 12.2 2,142 1.8 8,138 7,800 4.3
% of sales 6.5 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3
Other expenditure 3,708 4,375 (15.2) 3,999 (7.3) 16,615 12,753 30.3
% of sales 11.1 11.2 10.6 11.2 10.3
Operating profit 6,963 9,950 (30.0) 9,316 (25.3) 35,292 31,759 11.1
OPM (%) 20.9 25.5 24.7 23.7 25.5
Dep. and amor. 1,566 1,307 19.8 1,546 1.3 5,753 5,172 11.2
EBIT 5,396 8,642 (37.6) 7,770 (30.5) 29,539 26,587 11.1
Interest 656 325 101.9 659 (0.4) 2,048 1,159 76.7
Other income 118 99 19.4 223 (47.3) 749 428 75.1
Excp. Item 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
PBT 4,858 8,416 (42.3) 7,334 (33.8) 28,240 25,856 9.2
Provision for tax 1,265 2,336 (45.9) 1,709 (26.0) 6,617 6,966 (5.0)
eff. tax rate 26.0 27.8 23.3 23.4 26.9
PAT (rep.) 3,593 6,080 (40.9) 5,625 (36.1) 21,623 18,889 14.5
NPM (%) 10.7 15.6 14.8 14.5 15.1
EPS (Rs) 12.1 20.5 (40.9) 19.0 (36.1) 72.9 63.7 14.5

Segments revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Technical textile business (TTB) 4,647 5,710 (18.6) 4,307 7.9 18,939 20,852 (9.2)
Chemicals Business (CB) 16,605 17,224 (3.6) 21,017 (21.0) 74,109 52,408 41.4
Packaging film business (PFB) 10,948 14,960 (26.8) 11,531 (5.1) 51,828 47,792 8.4
Others 1,187 1,056 12.4 943 25.9 3,926 3,233 21.4
Total 33,387 38,951 (14.3) 37,797 (11.7) 1,48,801 1,24,285 19.7
EBIT
Technical textile business EBIT 607 1,162 (47.8) 484 25.3 2,617 4,714 (44.5)
% EBIT 13.1 20.4 11.2 13.8 22.6
Chemicals Business EBIT 4,601 5,202 (11.6) 7,393 (37.8) 23,407 13,969 67.6
% EBIT 27.7 30.2 35.2 31.6 26.7
Packaging film business EBIT 513 2,952 (82.6) 410 25.2 5,562 9,463 (41.2)
% EBIT 4.7 19.7 3.6 10.7 19.8
Others EBIT 232 68 242.6 113 104.4 348 204 71.1
% EBIT 19.5 6.4 12.0 8.9 6.3
Total EBIT 5,952 9,384 (36.6) 8,399 (29.1) 31,934 28,350 12.6
% EBIT 17.8 24.1 22.2 21.5 22.8
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 101


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Sudarshan Chemical
Expect domestic demand pick up in 2H, moderate exports in
exports
Financial performance – Debt reduction from land sale proceeds
 Net debt/ Equity – 0.5x (1.0x)
 Net debt/ EBITDA – 2.1x (3.4x YoY)
 Cash conversion cycle – 90 days (114 days YoY)
 Proceeds from land sale used for deleveraging balance sheet
 Cost of debt – 5.0-5.5%, mix of ECBs and domestic

Business performance – Demand improvement in 2H


 Plastics segment – Stable demand
 Coating and inks segment – Subdued demand in domestic market, customers deferring
buying decisions due to inventory issues, expect demand pick up in 2H, revenue ramp
up from capex delayed due to global situation
 Softening of coal prices, logistics costs softened
 Market leader with 35% market share, not losing any market share
 In commodity market, company losing market share however gaining market share in
specialty hence overall market share remained stagnant over the past few years
 China – Witnessed intense competition, similar to last year competition, in some Azos
have gained some market share which was lost earlier
 Yellows, violets – Good engagement on these products across customers, across geographies
 Land sale – Total consideration Rs3.56bn, gain Rs3.15bn, tax Rs690mn
 Domestic – Recovery expected from 2H
 Exports – Demand expected to be moderate due to macroeconomic environment
 On target on product approvals, reflected in Q1 numbers too
 One of the competitors in Canada facing financial difficulty, their supplies affected,
among top 6-7 players
 EU – Better than last year demand
 US – Destocking currently, cautionary notes from customers
 China – Active in printing ink market and lower end plastics market, seen some competition

Capex – Ramp up in four years instead of three years earlier


 Rs7.50bn capex completed in FY23
 Overall revenue potential estimated at ~ Rs15bn at full capacity, ramp up over four
years, impact of lower RMs may be at 10% or so (as per previous concalls)
 New products at advanced stage of evaluations
 Confident in mid-term to benefit from capex
 Total capex over the past three years, till FY23 – Rs7.50bn

Pigment Segment – Top-line decline however GMs improved QoQ


 Gross margins – 42.9% vs. 40.3% YoY, 41.5% QoQ
 Domestic sales – Rs2.65bn (Rs2.69bn)
 Exports – Rs2.72bn (Rs2.58bn)
 Specialty – Rs3.63bn (Rs3.52bn)
 Non-Specialty – Rs1.74bn (Rs1.74bn)
 Improvement in GMs due to softening of input costs and lag in pass through in selling prices

Centrum Institutional Research 102


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Calibrated pricing decisions to continue to balance volume growth


 Domestic demand expected to pick up in H2FY24 and exports to remain moderated due
to global macro-economic situation

Guidance – Expect growth in both domestic and exports in FY24


 Expect growth in both domestic and exports in FY24 on YoY basis
 Net WC to stabilise at 21%, to aid RoCE improvement (rest as per previous concall)
 FY24 capex – Maintenance only, Rs400mn
 Gross margins – To improve to 42.5%, Q4 level to sustain for a quarter
 Business mix to tilt more towards specialty going forward
 Rs30-33bn revenue potential over the next 3-4 years

Outlook – FY24 and beyond (status quo)


 Capex program to drive future growth and bring in EBITDA improvement – Gradual
sales ramp‐up of new capexes expected to drive growth, commencing execution of cost
improvement and value chain integration projects
 Business mix change to continue – Expanding product portfolio to build globally
competitive and comprehensive range, deeper penetration in select International
geographies
 Building one of the most efficient chemical complexes in India and globally, with strong
focus on EHS and sustainability
 Focus on controlling net WC and inventories to optimize cash conversion cycle
Sudarshan (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 6,081 5,542 9.7 6,912 (12.0) 23,017 22,008 4.6
Cost of Goods 3,345 3,305 1.2 4,011 (16.6) 13,683 12,704 7.7
% of sales 55.0 59.6 58.0 59.4 57.7
Employee benefit expenses 513 473 8.5 487 5.3 1,840 1,840 (0.0)
% of sales 8.4 8.5 7.0 8.0 8.4
Other expenditure 1,524 1,350 12.9 1,566 (2.7) 5,389 4,716 14.3
% of sales 25.1 24.4 22.7 23.4 21.4
Operating profit 699 414 68.7 847 (17.5) 2,106 2,748 (23.3)
OPM (%) 11.5 7.5 12.3 9.2 12.5
Dep. and amor. 346 258 34.1 306 13.2 1,142 893 28.0
EBIT 353 156 125.8 542 (34.9) 964 1,855 (48.0)
Interest 103 61 70.0 150 (31.5) 415 194 113.5
Other income 41.4 8.4 393.9 15.4 169.3 47.9 50.0 (4.2)
Excp. Item -3,151 0 0.0 0 0
PBT 3,442 104 3,210.6 406.5 746.9 597 1,711 (65.1)
Provision for tax 772 33 2,226.7 80.8 856.6 150 412 (63.6)
eff. tax rate 22 32 19.9 25 24
PAT (rep.) 2,670 71 3,672.3 325.7 719.7 448 1,300 (65.6)
NPM (%) 43.6 1.3 4.7 1.9 5.9
EPS (Rs) 38.6 1.0 3,672.3 4.7 719.7 6.5 18.8 (65.6)

Segments revenue (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Pigments 5,364 5,261 2.0 5,029 6.7 19,885 20,197 (1.5)
Others - Engineering 719 280 156.4 986 (27.1) 2,236 1,811 23.4
Total 6,083 5,542 9.8 6,015 1.1 22,120 22,008 0.5
EBIT
Pigments 346 193 79.5 444 (22.0) 863 1,863 (53.7)
% EBIT 6.5 3.7 8.8 4.3 9.2
Others - Engineering 48 -28 (270.3) 113 (57.5) 149 43 247.7
% EBIT 6.7 (10.1) 11.5 6.7 2.4
Total EBIT 394 165 139.5 557 (29.2) 1,012 1,905 (46.9)
% EBIT 6.5 3.0 9.3 4.6 8.7
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 103


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Sumitomo Chemical
Sector headwinds impacted Q1, some demand spill over to Q2,
both projects for SCC, Japan commenced commercial
production
Financials – Improvement in WC, exports market remains lack lustre
 Specialty – 29% (25%), Generic –71% (75%)
 Geographical break-up – domestic 86% (80%), Japan 2% (1%), Europe 2% (3%), North
America 1% (1%), Africa 3% (5%), Asia 2% (3%), South America 4% (7%)
 Domestic Branded – 74% (78%), Bulk – 26% (22%)
 Exports Branded – 35% (32%), Bulk – 65% (68%)
 WC days – 94days (96days)
 Cash and cash equivalent end-Q1FY24 – Rs12.5bn

Business Performance – Spill over in demand to Q2, no demand destruction


 Industry participants, encountered further obstacles such as delayed and erratic
monsoons, delayed sowing, pricing pressure, surplus channel inventory, and deferred
purchasing decisions by trade partners.
 Delayed monsoon led to spill over of sales from Q1 to next quarter
 The consumption patterns remain consistent and unaffected, indicating a stable market
environment
 Product launches in Q1 – 3 herbicides (Oxadiargyl 1% + Pretilachlor 6% GR,
Tembotrione 34.4% SC, and Glufosinate Ammonium 13.5 SL) and 1 insecticide
(Chlorantrasniliprole 0.4% w/w GR)

Capex for New projects – Commercial production from both projects


commenced
 1st project in Bhavnagar is towards single product began commercial production
 2nd project at Tarapur started production recently, for multiple products
 Operating margin for above two projects are in line with company’s existing margin
profile
 Capex for 5 products – Rs1.20bn
 Revenue potential for 5 products – Rs2-2.50bn p.a.
 Signed registration agreements towards 2 land parcels, transfer process is expected to
be completed soon, ~20acre land parcel adjoining Bhavnagar Site and ~50acre land
parcel at Dahej PCPIR Zone

Regular capex – Rs70-75cr p.a. for existing products (status quo)


 Maintenance, capacity enhancement for existing products, infra development
 Efficiency improvement projects and safety enhancement
 Sustainability initiatives, environmental compliance
 Trials and registrations for future pipeline products
 IRRs similar to company level IRRs

Centrum Institutional Research 104


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Sumitomo Chemical (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 7,242 9,855 (26.5) 6,516 11.2 35,124 30,646 14.6
Cost of Goods 4,989 6,392 (21.9) 4,474 11.5 22,706 19,080 19.0
% of sales 68.9 64.9 68.7 64.6 62.3
Employee benefit expenses 598 572 4.4 545 9.7 2,184 2,020 8.1
% of sales 8.3 5.8 8.4 6.2 6.6
Other expenditure 849 1,016 (16.5) 691 22.8 3,568 3,547 0.6
% of sales 11.7 10.3 10.6 10.2 11.6
Operating profit 808 1,876 (56.9) 806 0.2 6,666 5,999 11.1
OPM (%) 11.2 19.0 12.4 19.0 19.6
Dep. and amor. 135 112 20.3 140 (3.6) 519 448 15.8
EBIT 672 1,763 (61.9) 665 1.1 6,147 5,551 10.7
Interest 13 13 1.8 14 (4.1) 54 62 (12.5)
Other income 175 47 275.7 165 6.2 449 268 67.4
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 834 1,797 (53.6) 816 2.2 6,542 5,757 13.6
Provision for tax 216 415 (47.9) 95 127.8 1,520 1,522 (0.1)
eff. tax rate 25.9 23.1 11.6 23.2 26.4
PAT (rep.) 618 1,381 (55.3) 721 (14.4) 5,022 4,235 18.6
NPM (%) 8.3 14.0 10.8 14.1 13.7
EPS (Rs) 1.2 2.8 (55.3) 1.4 (14.4) 10.1 8.5 18.6
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 105


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Tata Chemicals
China new capacity with demand slowdown to impact near term
Soda Ash market, pricing for new contracts in UK/ US may be
lower
Financial Performance – Debt reduction continues
 Debt reduction – USD95mn, in US USD45mn repaid, in Singapore USD50mn
 Q1 capex – Rs4.26mn

Business Performance – Imbalance for a year/ year and a half due to China
supplies
 Stable demand across geographies
 Purchases delayed in some geographies
 Demand-supply remains robust, mainly driven from energy transition
 Focused on managing margins and cost structure
 Imbalance for a year/ year and a half due to China supplies, till supplies get absorbed
 Kenya – capex USD20-25mn, 300,000MT, through debottlenecking
 US – capex USD80-100mn, 400,000MT, can be upwards by 20%, focus on process
improvement, detailed engineering going on, decision on whether fully gas based is
currently on
 Additional 1mmt capacity – India going up from 0.8mmt to 1.0mmt (ongoing
expansion), thereafter from 1.0 to 1.3mmt, 0.4mmt in the US, rest 0.3mmt in Kenya
 Capacity addition – In 36 months in Kenya and US
 Estimated 2.2mmt of additional Soda Ash demand, demand shortfall by about 2mmt
due to China slowdown
 Solar glass demand – up 20%

China – Local prices bottomed out


 China net supply increased in market due to new capacity, China slowdown
 Inner Mongolia capacity came earlier by about 3 months, 1.5mmt capacity onstream,
in 2024 Tata Chemicals modelled total of 3.0mmt natural Soda Ash capacity in China
 Coastal capacity to start exporting, due to lower pricing some of the suboptimal
capacities may go out as observed in US market

India – Volume impact due to cyclone, pricing corrections in Q1


 Impacted by truck availability, roads closure due to cyclone
 Price lower due to price corrections taken in quarter
 Silica – added positive EBITDA
 Nutraceuticals – Production for an exports order which got delayed impacted Q1,
operating at lower 50% utilisation due to inventories
 India 230,000MT – Largely to come by September 2023, some spill over may happen
 Silica – By October fully aligned with tyre sector, to go for next leg of capacity expansion

TCNA – Pricing in place for domestic, exports partly contracted and partly
quarterly reset
 Domestic pricing still holding on due to annual contracts
 Need to wait how pricing shaped up for next calendar year
 Contracts – domestic annual CY contracts, exports partly yearly and partly quarterly
 To watch higher interest rates impact on the housing sector and demand for glass

Centrum Institutional Research 106


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

UK – Pricing in place till Q3


 More or less contracted volumes for first three quarters, open position for Q4
 Done hedging on energy
 Cost have more or less stabilised
 Remain watchful on UK energy costs
 Baseline EBITDA – GBP25mn, to move up by GBP10-15mn

Kenya – Impacted by supply chain issues


 Impacted by certain supply chain issues, corrected as of now
 Faced challenges due to China supplies in Thailand market and large consignment
landed in South Africa market

Snippets from presentation – Debt reduction, US/ UK perform


strongly
Financial Performance – Volume impact across geographies
 Soda Ash sales volumes – 803,000MT (Q4 – 897,000MT, Q1FY23 – 885,000MT)
 Branded Salt sales volumes – 384,000MT (Q4 – 415,000MT, Q1FY23 – 418,000MT)
 Bicarb sales volumes – 53,000MT (Q4 – 56,000MT, Q1FY23 – 58,000MT)
 Net debt – Rs39.0bn (Jun-23 – Rs43.3bn), higher due to usage of cash for dividend,
capex, etc
 Gross debt – Rs63.0bn (Jun-23 – Rs58.7bn), lower from USD770mn to USD720mn due
to prepayment of USD95mn overseas debt in FY23

Business Performance – Revenues driven by higher realisations


 Higher revenue on account of better realizations partly impacted by lower volumes
(India dispatches impacted by cyclone Biparjoy for 10 days)
 EBITDA growth driven by higher realizations
 PBT – Lower due to higher finance cost
 PAT – Lower due to higher taxes in some geographies

India – Soda ash volumes decline by 8% YoY due to cyclone


 Deliver consistent market and customer delivery performance through customer
engagement
 Deliver capacity expansions on schedule – Soda Ash, Bicarb, & Salt expansion on stream
by FY24
 Continue focus on cost management

TCNA – Soda ash volumes down 6% YoY


 Maximize plant output & ensure customer demand is fully met
 Generate cash and repay debt

UK – Soda ash volumes down 12% YoY


 Maximize plant output and ensure operating performance is in line with market
dynamics
 Operational efficiencies and cost structure rationalization
 Manage energy cost pressures

Kenya – Soda Ash volumes down 34% YoY


 Sustain volume delivery to customers
 Continuous cost focus
 Generate cash

Centrum Institutional Research 107


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Rallis
 Extend Portfolio offerings – New product introductions, plug portfolio gaps
 Strengthen Manufacturing – Invest in manufacturing and registrations

Capex/ Expansion plans – Rs7bnto be invested by Mar24, Rs20bn capex over


FY24-27
 Soda Ash 230,000MT at Mithapur – Phase I 45,000MT by H2FY23, Phase II 185,000MT
by H2FY24 (total India capacity post expansion 1,147,000MT)
 Bicarb – 70,000MT by H1FY24
 Salt – 330,000MT by H2FY23 (total India capacity post expansion 1,500,000MT)
 Capex spend till Jun-23– Rs22bn, total project cost Rs29bn
 Rs20bn incremental investment over FY24-27
 Over and above ongoing expansion, Planned expansion of 30%/ 40%/5X in Soda
ash/Bicarb/Silica

Tata Chemicals (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 42,180 39,950 5.6 44,070 (4.3) 1,67,890 1,26,232 33.0
Cost of Goods 7,080 7,950 (10.9) 8,600 (17.7) 32,830 26,370 24.5
% of sales 16.8 19.9 19.5 19.6 20.9
Employee benefit expense 4,580 4,060 12.8 4,570 0.2 16,910 15,401 9.8
% of sales 10.9 10.2 10.4 10.1 12.2
Power and Fuel cost 6,830 6,210 10.0 7,340 (6.9) 29,880 21,127 41.4
% of sales 16.2 15.5 16.7 17.8 16.7
Other expenditure 13,260 11,580 14.5 13,910 (4.7) 50,050 40,294 24.2
% of sales 31.4 29.0 31.6 29.8 31.9
Operating profit 10,430 10,150 2.8 9,650 8.1 38,220 23,040 65.9
OPM (%) 24.7 25.4 21.9 22.8 18.3
Dep. and amor. 2,290 2,130 7.5 2,340 (2.1) 8,920 8,054 10.8
EBIT 8,140 8,020 1.5 7,310 11.4 29,300 14,987 95.5
Interest 1,230 800 53.8 1,330 (7.5) 4,060 3,024 34.3
Other income 490 460 6.5 750 (34.7) 2,180 2,555 (14.7)
Excp. Item/ Share from JV -90 -290 (69.0) -130 (30.8) 20 -2,152 (100.9)
PBT 7,490 7,970 (6.0) 6,860 9.2 27,400 16,670 64.4
Provision for tax 1,710 1,560 9.6 -80 (2,237.5) 2,880 2,674 7.7
eff. tax rate 22.8 19.6 (1.2) 10.5 16.0
PAT (rep.) 5,780 6,410 (9.8) 6,940 (16.7) 24,520 13,996 75.2
Minority Interest 550 480 14.6 -170 1,170 1,469 (20.3)
PAT 5,230 5,930 (11.8) 7,110 (26.4) 23,350 12,527 86.4
NPM (%) 12.3 14.7 15.9 13.7 9.7
EPS (Rs) 20.5 23.3 (11.8) 27.9 (26.4) 91.6 50.0 83.4

Segmental (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Basic Chemistry Products 33,860 30,600 10.7 38,220 (11.4) 1,35,970 97,572 39.4
Specialty Products 8,330 9,340 (10.8) 5,890 41.4 31,980 28,263 13.2
Total 42,190 39,940 5.6 44,110 (4.4) 1,67,950 1,25,836 33.5
Intersegmental 30 50 (40.0) 70 (57.1) 280 119 135.9
Unallocated Revenue 20 60 (66.7) 30 (33.3) 220 504 (56.4)
Total 42,180 39,950 5.6 44,070 (4.3) 1,67,890 1,26,221 33.0
EBIT
Basic Chemistry Products 7,870 7,650 2.9 8,760 (10.2) 30,280 14,858 103.8
% EBIT 23.2 25.0 22.9 22.3 15.2
Specialty Products 650 780 (16.7) -930 (169.9) 910 1,677 (45.7)
% EBIT 7.8 8.4 (15.8) 2.8 5.9
Total 8,520 8,430 1.1 7,830 8.8 31,190 16,534 88.6
% EBIT 20.2 21.1 17.8 18.6 13.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 108


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Tatva Chintan Pharma


Margins improve, Optimum capacity utilization achieved, QIP to
come shortly and promoter share to reduce, Q3 may see
comeback of margins
Financial performance
 Revenue from operations of Rs1144mn, a growth of 29%
 Split of Revenue from operations – Exports -78% at Rs889mn and domestic was at 22%
at Rs255mn
 GP has come back to 49% after a fall to 40% in Q4FY23
 EBITDA during the quarter was at Rs213mn
 EBITDA margin increased -145bps to 18.7% in Q1, FY24. This was due to decrease in
other expenses by 7.53% YoY, however, the impact was offset by increasing COGS and
employee benefit expenses by 5.68% and 140% respectively
 EBITDA margins were at 18.7%
 PAT was at Rs95mn versus 98mnYoY basis, a decline of 3% YoY basis.
 PAT margin was at 8.3% versus 11.1% on a YoY basis
 The net profit reduction was due to high finance costs because of increasing benchmark
rates during the year, as well as higher regulation of working with the facility.
 The inventory consolidated levels have come down by nearly 125 million from 1,325
million as on March23, to nearly 1200 million as of June ‘23

Business highlights – New products and segments to drive future growth


 Interest costs continue to remain high, largely because of increased benchmark rates.
 Management consumed almost 2/3rd of the inventory, 60crores worth of inventory on
SDN WIP; about Rs19.92bn, this has definitely some impact on profit erosions.
 Almost consumed potentially Rs600mn inventory in Q1. Balance about Rs.300-320mn
of inventory to be consumed by Nov 2023
 Employee cost has increased because of new recruitments in the expanded facility at
Dahej. More Additions to follow.
 The installed reactor capacity increased to 500 kilometers from 294 kilometers and
assembly lines increased from 27 to 39. Company expects gradual increase in capacity
utilization and reaching to the tune of 80% utilization within FY25.
 Expect to start actual commercial production in the increased capacity somewhere end
of November or early December.
 There are two products already on the floor on commercial scale. Producing at the plant
scale to fulfill the demand for one container load of product for customer validation.
This activity has begun during the quarter and post approval of these products expect
the commercial supplies to begin by late December or early January.
 In addition, two agrochemical products are going on stream.
 To add there are two pharmaceutical products on the floor currently, which again are
going into validation for the customer. And these two products would see
commercialization happening in early 2025
 Company are in the process of raising funds to Rs2bn
 In the first phase of expansion, CAPEX will not be more than Rs2.5bn, in terms for future
growth.
 .Depreciation increase is due to capitalization of the newly expanded facility has
happened in this quarter

Centrum Institutional Research 109


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Development on the Landside - Final hearing on environmental clearance through. So


now, permission expected any time soon. Once this permission is received the company
needs funds and QIP is getting the funds back into the company
 Existing capacity is fully utilized.
 Promoter stake to go below 75% due to QIP

PTC – Gradual increase in offtake to aid margin expansion


 PTC have registered a revenue of Rs316million in this quarter, contributing 28% to the
revenue.

Electrolyte salts – FY25 outlook for electrolytes strong


 Offtake from one of the large customers on hold, expect demand back from Q3
 Both customers - company dispatching a few hundred Kgs of product now to them.
 FY25 to see robust growth with these products commercialisations
 Electrolyte salts have registered revenue of Rs13mn in this quarter, contributing 1% of
the revenue, but two new customers are progressing well towards commercialization
 Target is to deliver the first pilot order on pilot scale from the Dahej plant by October
2023.

PASC – FY24 to witness full ramp up of new products


 Started pilot trials through continuous flow chemistry, teething issues, expect to start
smooth pilot trials by end-May 23
 Second product – Quality approval received from continuous flow chemistry
 Third product – In agrochemical intermediates, quality approvals received for pilot
supplies, to supply full scale trial material by August-23, commercial supplies expected
from April-24
 Pilot project by Dec23, final commercialization by July24
 Pharma and agro intermediates and specialty chemicals have registered a revenue of
310million during this quarter, contributing 27% of the revenue.

SDAs – Commercial production with customers scaling up


 SDA is not operating at a full-scale capacity but the utilization is steady and going up
since the last 4 Qtrs. hence this segment has done a business of around Rs500mn in the
Qtr. Expected a strong pickup in Q3.
 SDA has a strong anti-barrier area because any change in quality parameters can lead
to incidences with the battery.

Bromine Flame Retardants (BFRs) – Competing with MNCs, receiving good


traction
 Expect the revenue to remain anywhere between Rs250 to 400mn during this financial
year for flame retardants
 BSP segment impacted by China dumping + RM Correction and lower demand.

Guidance – 30-40% revenue growth with 18-20% EBITDA margins in FY24


 FY26 – All plant expected to be running at 80%+ capacity
 Expect a price reduction of nearly 60% due to very weak demand.
 Therefore, in Q3 the company may see comeback of gross margins around 55%.

Centrum Institutional Research 110


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Tatva Chintan Pharma (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) 9MFY23 9MFY22 % chg.
Net sales 1,144 884 29.4 1,245 (8.1) 4,236 4,336 (2.3)
Cost of Goods 580 399 45.7 750 (22.6) 2,261 1,931 17.1
% of sales 50.8 45.1 60.2 53.4 44.5
Employee benefit expenses 116 86 34.7 103 12.0 386 311 24.3
% of sales 10.1 9.7 8.3 9.1 7.2
Other expenditure 234 248 (5.4) 229 2.2 983 1,020 (3.6)
% of sales 20.5 28.0 18.4 23.2 23.5
Operating profit 213 152 40.3 163 31.1 606 1,075 (43.6)
OPM (%) 18.7 17.2 1.5 13.1 5.6 14.3 24.8
Dep. and amor. 60 23 157.7 25 137.5 96 82 16.8
EBIT 153 129 19.0 137 11.6 510 993 (48.6)
Interest 29 10 187.7 32 (8.5) 84 48 73.9
Other income 10 18 (44.5) 8 20.1 57 96 (40.5)
Excp. Item 0 0 0.0 -36 (100.0) -36 0 0.0
PBT 134 137 (2.0) 78 72.0 448 1,041 (57.0)
Provision for tax 39 39 0.5 -92 (142.8) -7 82 (108.6)
eff. tax rate 29.2 28.5 (117.3) (1.6) 7.9
PAT (rep.) 95 98 (3.0) 170 (43.9) 455 959 (52.6)
NPM (%) 8.2 10.9 13.5 10.6 21.6
EPS (Rs) 4.3 4.4 (3.0) 10.9 (60.6) 23.8 43.3 (45.1)
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 111


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

UPL
Demand weakness in Q2, recovery expected in 2H, undertaking
USD100mn cost reduction initiative, focus on debt reduction
Financial Performance
 17% YoY revenue growth – Volume degrowth 9%, price decrease 10%, currency benefit
2%
 Gross margin – Down 198bps YoY at 45.7%
 EBITDA margin – Down 387bps YoY at 17.8%
 Rs7bn invested in WC QoQ
 Except for herbicides, capacity utilisation gone up YoY in other segments
 Differentiated and sustainable solutions – 7% YoY growth, share rose to 37% vs 27% in
Q1FY23
 Net debt – Lower USD160mn YoY at USD3,193mn
 Factoring – Lower at USD890mn vs USD1,140mn in Q1FY23

Agrochemical market environment


 Inventories at distributor level to normalise in coming quarters
 Agrochem prices – Prices barely covering RMs, expect prices to move up but difficult to
predict when will start to rise
 Due to lower demand current prices are likely to persist in near term
 Will try to conserve cash and reduce debt

China
 Competition is expected to be intense
 Some AIs have too much capacities which will rationalise in next few quarters, not in
near future

Business performance
 Restocking in the US in Q3/ Q4 – Expect demand then
 Sowing seasons in India across geographies – Gujarat – started and then delayed, North
India paddy – started and then delayed, Maharashtra – on track, East – delayed by 15
days, Karnataka – delayed
 Expect increase in WC in Q2/ Q3 and then WC to come down in Q4
 India – Higher share of proprietary products in India portfolio, Q2 to do better
 Brazil impact – due to herbicides, non-selective herbicides, due to prices coming down
of both glyphosate and glufosinate
 Post patent business to be leaner through cost cutting
 Cost reduction – USD100mn over the next two years, 50% to be realised in FY24

Outlook/ FY24 guidance


 Q2 – Pricing decline similar to Q1 however overall better than Q1
 FY24 revenue growth – 1-5%
 FY24 EBITDA growth – 3-7%
 FY24 Volume growth – 15-20%
 FY24 Factoring – USD1.4-1.6bn
 FY24 Net debt to EBITDA – 1.5-2.0x
 FY24 Capex – USD325-350mn earlier, now USD300mn, closely monitoring capex for the
year

Centrum Institutional Research 112


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Continue to reduce debt in FY24, no guidance


 Will try to conserve cash and reduce debt
 Confident of delivering guidance based on discussions with internal teams

Snippets from presentation – Strong performance from Seeds,


aggressive China competition in post patented products
Q1 performance
 Differentiated and sustainable portfolio has performed resiliently growing by 7% YoY,
comprising 37% of the crop protection revenue versus 27% YoY
 Contribution margin improved by 198 bps YoY led by improved portfolio and region mix
combined with better margins at Advanta
 Undertaking cost reduction initiative of US100mn over period of next 24 months; with
at least 50% being realized in FY24
 Reduced Net Debt by USD160mn YoY and non-recourse factoring by USD250mnYoY

UPL Corporation (Global Crop Protection ex. India)


 Revenue Variance – Volume: -17%, Price: -10%, FX: +3%
 Significant decline in herbicide volume and prices, and product bans in Europe
 Increase in differentiated and sustainable portfolio, primarily led by volume; revenue
share increased to 35% vs. 24% YoY
 Demand at the grower level continues to be strong. Channel inventory gradually
normalizing
 Channel demand to remain weak in Q2FY24 with recovery expected in H2FY24
 Undertaking cost reduction initiative of USD100mn over a period of next 24 months;
with at least 50% being realized in FY24

UPL Sustainable Agri Solutions (UPL SAS)


 Revenue Variance – Volume: -7% YoY, Price: -7% YoY
 Revenue impacted by delayed Kharif sowing activities, pricing pressure on post-patent
side, and high channel inventory
 Differentiated portfolio fared better led by traction in new /recent launches (Apache,
Oxalis, Centurion and Canora) and helped curtail margin impact
 Implemented cost optimization initiatives resulting in SG&A being lower by 5% YoY
 Novel range of launches in pipeline – Spruce, Feego, Fascinate Flash, Argyle, Sperto,
Mono SG, Sekito, Lexicon
 Improved monsoon from June-end onwards to aid demand recovery and drive much
better performance in Q2FY24 as against Q1FY24

Advanta
 Revenue growth – Volume: +14%, Price: +9%, FX: +3%
 Revenue Growth driven by robust traction in following portfolios -
 Field Corn across India, Thailand, Ecuador, Peru
 Fresh Corn in Indonesia
 Grain Sorghum in USA
 Contribution margins expanded by 523bps YoY driven by – Improved Mix: Strong
growth in high-margin portfolios, good recovery in India Vegetable business
 Expect to see healthy demand for rest of FY24

Manufacturing and Specialty Chemicals


 Decline in revenue primarily on account of slowdown in the agrochemical as well as the
broader chemical industry

Centrum Institutional Research 113


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Entered a new chemistry by commissioning and commencing production at the


phosgene plant in Dahej Q1
 Manufacture and market phosgene derivative products
 Phosgene will also be used in group’s agchem production
 Commissioned the 61 MW hybrid wind and solar power plant with commencement of
power supplies in June’23 – Will help reduce energy costs and carbon footprint
 Expected to perform better in line with the recovery in the agro and specialty chemicals
markets

UPL Group FY24 revised guidance


 Revenue growth – 1-5%
 EBITDA growth – 3-7%
UPL (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 89,630 1,08,210 (17.2) 1,65,690 (45.9) 5,35,760 4,62,400 15.9
Cost of Goods 39,300 46,640 (15.7) 98,210 (60.0) 2,68,880 2,20,720 21.8
% of sales 43.8 43.1 59.3 50.2 47.7
Employee benefit expenses 12,400 12,440 (0.3) 12,580 (1.4) 50,560 46,220 9.4
% of sales 13.8 11.5 7.6 9.4 10.0
Other expenditure 25,200 27,670 (8.9) 27,680 (9.0) 1,14,360 1,00,170 14.2
% of sales 28.1 25.6 16.7 21.3 21.7
Operating profit 12,730 21,460 (40.7) 27,220 (53.2) 1,01,960 95,290 7.0
OPM (%) 14.2 19.8 16.4 19.0 20.6
Dep. and amor. 6,360 5,880 8.2 7,270 (12.5) 25,470 23,590 8.0
EBIT 6,370 15,580 (59.1) 19,950 (68.1) 76,490 71,700 6.7
Interest 7,000 5,190 34.9 9,060 (22.7) 29,630 22,950 29.1
Other income 1,010 730 38.4 2,110 (52.1) 4,770 2,810 69.8
Excp. Item -430 -780 (44.9) -290 48.3 -1,700 -3,240 (47.5)
PBT -50 10,340 (100.5) 12,710 (100.4) 49,930 48,320 3.3
Provision for tax -1,640 590 (378.0) 3,110 (152.7) 7,360 5,290 39.1
eff. tax rate 3,280.0 5.7 24.5 14.7 10.9
PAT 1,590 9,750 (83.7) 9,600 (83.4) 42,570 43,030 (1.1)
Minority Interest -640 1,280 (150.0) 2,880 (122.2) 8,440 8,110 4.1
Share of Profit/(Loss) from Asso. -570 300 (290.0) 1,200 (147.5) 1,570 1,340 17.2
PAT (rep.) 1,660 8,770 (81.1) 7,920 (79.0) 35,700 36,260 (1.5)
NPM (%) 1.8 8.1 4.7 6.6 7.8
EPS (Rs) 2.2 11.7 (81.1) 10.6 (79.0) 47.6 47.4 0.4

Sales by region (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
India 20,540 20,670 (0.6) 15,456 32.9 64,956 56,840 14.3
Latin America 29,650 34,640 (14.4) 67,980 (56.4) 2,23,280 1,80,380 23.8
Europe 12,590 17,280 (27.1) 26,563 (52.6) 71,823 68,940 4.2
ROW 18,140 17,650 2.8 26,316 (31.1) 89,046 78,170 13.9
North America 8,700 17,960 (51.6) 31,590 (72.5) 88,850 78,060 13.8
Total 89,620 1,08,200 (17.2) 1,67,905 (46.6) 5,37,955 4,62,390 16.3
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 114


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Vinati Organics
Projects on track, FY24 revenues at Rs20bn incl. VAPL with lower
than 28% margins, future diversification into AO, MEHQ,
Guaiacol derivatives
Financial performance – Impacted from volume decline
 Revenue decline – 90% due to lower volumes, 10% due to pricing
 Revenue breakup – ATBS 40%, IBB 20%, Butyl phenols 17%, others 23%

Business performance
 ATBS – Higher offtake in 2HFY23 from MNCs, normalising in 1HFY24, demand to
normalise in 2HFY24
 IBB – Remained steady
 ATBS – New expansion from 40,000MT to 60,000MT based on customer interest and
firm commitments on offtake
 All product pricing – With quarterly lag
 MTBE – Largest RM, not corrected much, hence not correction in product prices of IBB/
ATBS
 ATBS – 30% revenues for O&G, translating into 15% of overall revenues, 5-10 year
outlook for ATBS remains firm
 Top 2 products – 80-90% repeat customers
 Target RoCE for new projects – 20%

MEHQ/ Guaiacol
 Capacity Anisole 5,000MT, MEHQ/ Guaiacol– 3,000MT
 Expect 25-30% market share
 Vinati’s route – Phenol to anisole to MEHQ/ Guaiacol, competitor route from
hydroquinone (HQ), HQ more expensive than phenol

Productwise outlook
 ATBS – Volumes down from O&G sector due to higher inventories bought last year by
customers, no demand related issue, no pricing impact, expect recovery from October
onwards
 IBB – Done well, sales picked up in FY23 from muted FY22, recently one of the domestic
competitors exited business, RM fluctuation passed on to customers
 Butyl Phenols – Expected grow in FY24, expect external sales Rs3bn at peak utilisation
 Customised products – Continues to perform very well, expect Rs1.5-1.75bn sales in
FY24
 Antioxidants – Rs6bn at peak utilisation
 Butyl phenols and anti-oxidants – Peak revenue potential of Rs9-10bn, EBITDA margin
15-20%

Projects/ capexes – Rs600cr capex for FY24


 ATBS – Capacity expansion from 40,000MT to 60,000MY by end-FY24
 Veeral Additives (VAPL) – Received shareholder and creditors approvals, final NCLT
approval awaiting, expect by December 2023, commercial product and sales started,
expect Rs1.5bn revenues in FY24, demand pressure in AO, currently operating at 25%
capacity utilisation, Rs100bn global market size
 Veeral Organics – Niche specialty products, capex Rs260cr, for MEHQ/ Guaiacol, expect
to commission by March-24

Centrum Institutional Research 115


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 Renewable energy – Current 15MW of solar power plant, 55% power from renewable
sources, adding 11MW additional plant by Sept-23
 Capex beyond FY24 – Looking at downstream of current product slate, capex to be
announced once trials are complete

Outlook – Revenues of Rs20bn in FY24, 20-25% growth in FY25


 Q2 expected to be similar to Q1, expect recovery from Q3
 FY24 revenues – Rs20bn including Rs1.50bn from VAPL, lower than 28% due to lower
margins from AO and butyl phenols
 FY25E revenues – Expect 20-25% overall sales growth, Rs3 bn from VAPL
Vinati Organics (Cons.)
Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 4,310 5,063 (14.9) 5,034 (14.4) 20,847 16,155 29.0
Cost of Goods 2,259 2,757 (18.1) 2,504 (9.8) 10,835 8,607 25.9
% of sales 52.4 54.5 49.7 52.0 53.3
Employee benefit expenses 256 232 10.3 228 12.3 932 840 11.0
% of sales 5.9 4.6 4.5 4.5 5.2
Other expenditure 705 765 (7.8) 779 (9.5) 3,126 2,367 32.0
% of sales 16.4 15.1 15.5 15.0 14.7
Operating profit 1,090 1,309 (16.7) 1,523 (28.4) 5,954 4,341 37.2
OPM (%) 25.3 25.8 30.3 28.6 26.9
Dep. and amor. 132 128 2.9 130 1.3 519 455 14.2
EBIT 958 1,181 (18.9) 1,393 (31.2) 5,435 3,886 39.9
Interest 3 5 (42.0) 1 102.8 6 3 142.4
Other income 153 187 (18.0) 170 (9.6) 724 609 19.0
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 1,108 1,363 (18.7) 1,561 (29.0) 6,153 4,492 37.0
Provision for tax 276 351 (21.3) 407 (32.2) 1,573 1,026 53.3
eff. tax rate 24.9 25.7 26.1 25.6 22.8
PAT (rep.) 832 1,012 (17.8) 1,154 (27.9) 4,580 3,466 32.1
NPM (%) 18.6 19.3 22.2 21.2 20.7
8.1 9.8 (17.8) 11.2 (27.9) 44.6 33.7 32.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 116


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

Vishnu Chemicals
Shutdown impacted quarter, positive outlook from demand and
pricing perspective
Financial performance – Pricing impact on revenues as well as RMs
 Domestic – 53%, exports – 47%
 Reduction in freight costs in standalone – Rs60mn QoQ from Rs130mn

Business performance – Impact from demand softness in exports market


 Q1 has been a good quarter considering maintenance in Chromium Chemicals and
integration of new plant in Barium Chemicals
 Company announced its asset optimisation and maintenance schedule shutdown in
June 2023 which led to lower production in Chromium Chemicals in Q1FY24
 Emphasis on cost control and process improvements led to 14.7% reduction in
consolidated conversion costs from Rs1.033bn in Q4FY23 to Rs880mn in Q1FY24
 Release of 32.2% promoter pledge by lenders
 Successful completion of fund raise of Rs2.00bn through QIP in Q2FY24
 Some softness in global/ exports demand due to global issues
 Product prices stabilised and expect to move up going ahead as the inventory
destocking finishes
 Targeted D/ E by end-FY24 – 0.6-0.7x without considering QIP
 Expect 3 year payback across projects
 Chrome metal – Initially capacity of 2,000MT to be raised to 5,000MT, Phase I capex of
~Rs100cr, expect Phase I to be ready by April-2024

Chromium Chemicals – Volume impact from unplanned shutdown


 Unplanned shutdown impact on volumes at 15%
 Installed capacity – 80,000MT
 Lanxess announced to shutdown their chrome oxide plant which is a positive for Vishnu
as its getting enquiries from overseas customers
 Chrome oxide green – 3,200MT, has spare capacity to cater to any incremental demand
 FY24 – Expect 10% volume growth

Barium Chemicals – Good demand


 Highest ever quarterly production (in tonnage) achieved
 EBITDA Margin – 17.1%, highest in last six quarters
 Successful commencement of production of Precipitated Barium Sulphate plant in
Q2FY24, sales from this product is expected to boost the business going forward
 Completed acquisition of baryte beneficiation company Ramadas Minerals Private
Limited in Q2FY24
 Currently operating at ~40% utilisation, expect to ramp up to 50% in next quarters,
optimum utilisation expected in next few quarters
 Precipitated barium sulphate – Completely imported, used by powder coating
companies, currently sampling process on, expect regular orders from next quarter
 Barium chemicals capacity 90,000MT – 60,000MT barium carbonate, 30,000MT
precipitated barium sulphate
 Good traction in barium carbonate from both domestic and exports customers
 Precipitated barium sulphate – Currently 95% imported from China, Vishnu has edge
over Chinese material in terms of quality, particle size, opacity etc.

Centrum Institutional Research 117


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

 FY24 Precipitated Barium Sulphate – Expect 50% utilisation by end-FY24, 60-70%


utilisation in FY25

Outlook – Volume growth in FY24, margins to remain intact (as per previous
concall)
 FY23 – Growth primarily driven from value
 Debt reduction in FY24 – Rs400mn
 Target EBITDA margins – 18%+
 Growth avenues – chromium metal for Indian defence sector, currently imported, also
for super alloys, barium chemicals for semiconductor applications, battery chemicals
from current chemistry products
 Chromium metal – R&D at an advance stage, expect to put up a pilot plant by end-FY24

Vishnu Chemicals (Cons.)


Y/E March (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY23 YoY (%) Q4FY23 QoQ (%) FY23 FY22 % chg.
Net sales 3,007 3,591 (16.3) 3,359 (10.5) 13,910 10,690 30.1
Cost of Goods 1,616 2,063 (21.7) 1,714 (5.7) 7,527 5,843 28.8
% of sales 53.7 57.4 51.0 54.1 54.7
Employee benefit expenses 137 102 34.0 123 11.7 460 415 10.9
% of sales 4.6 2.8 3.7 3.3 3.9
Other expenditure 744 843 (11.8) 910 (18.3) 3,622 2,875 26.0
% of sales 24.7 23.5 27.1 26.0 26.9
Operating profit 511 583 (12.4) 612 (16.5) 2,301 1,557 47.8
OPM (%) 17.0 16.2 18.2 16.5 14.6
Dep. and amor. 71 66 8.0 65 9.2 265 230 15.1
EBIT 440 517 (15.0) 547 (19.6) 2,036 1,327 53.5
Interest 92 73 25.4 88 3.7 334 261 27.9
Other income 22 23 (1.3) 27 (18.2) 152 58 164.2
Excp. Item 0 0 0 0 0
PBT 371 467 (20.6) 486 (23.7) 1,855 1,123 65.1
Provision for tax 84 126 (33.1) 130 (34.9) 489 309 58.0
eff. tax rate 22.8 27.0 26.7 26.4 27.5
PAT (rep.) 286 341 (16.0) 356 (19.7) 1,366 814 67.8
NPM (%) 9.4 9.4 10.5 9.7 7.6
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 118


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

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Centrum Institutional Research 119


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

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Buy – The stock is expected to return above 15%.
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Sell – The stock is expected to deliver <-5% returns.

Aarti Industries Anupam Rasayan Atul Ltd


1200 1700 15200

1000
1200 10200
800

600
700 5200
400

200 200 200


Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22 Jan-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23
Aarti Industries Ltd Anupam Rasayan India Ltd Atul Ltd
Deepak Nitrite Galaxy Surfactants Gujarat Fluorochemicals
3200 4200 4200

3200 3200
2200
2200 2200
1200
1200 1200

200 200 200


Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23
Deepak Nitrite Ltd Galaxy Surfactants Ltd Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd
Navin Fluorine International SRF Ltd. Vinati Organics
6200 3200 15200

4200 2200 10200

2200 1200 5200

200 200 200


Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Mar-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Jan-23 Aug-23
Navin Fluorine International Ltd SRF Ltd Vinati Organics Ltd

Centrum Institutional Research 120


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

UPL PI Industries Dhanuka Agritech


1000 4800 1200

800 3800

600 2800 700

400 1800

200 800 200


Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23
UPL Ltd PI Industries Ltd Dhanuka Agritech Ltd
Source: Bloomberg

Disclosure of Interest Statement


1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives Segments), MCX-SX
Centrum Broking Limited (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager.
(CBL)
2 Details of Disciplinary CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
History of CBL
3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
Navin
Aarti Anupam Atul Deepak Galaxy Gujarat Fluorine SRF Vinati PI Dhanuka
UPL
Ind. Rasayan Ltd Nitrite Surfactants Fluorochem Internati Ltd. Organics Industries Agritech
onal
Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial
4 interest in the subject company and nature of such financial No No No No No No No No No No No No
interest
Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial
ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at
5 No No No No No No No No No No No No
the end of the month immediately preceding the date of
publication of the document.
Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other
6 No No No No No No No No No No No No
material conflict of interest
Whether research analyst has received any compensation from
7 the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of No No No No No No No No No No No No
products / services for which such compensation is received
Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or
8 any other benefits from the subject company or third party in No No No No No No No No No No No No
connection with the research report
Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, directoror
9 No No No No No No No No No No No No
employee of the subject company
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making activity of the subject company.
Whether it or its associates have managed or co-managed public
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from the subject company in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for
products or services other than investment banking or merchant
13 No No No No No No No No No No No No
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the
past twelve months;

Centrum Institutional Research 121


Chemicals Q1 Review and Concall Highlights 21 August, 2023

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Centrum Broking. (CIN :U67120MH1994PLC078125)


Registered and Corporate Office:
Level -9, Centrum House, C.S.T. Road,
Vidyanagari Marg, Kalina,
Santacruz (East) Mumbai – 400098
Tel.: - +91 22 4215 9000

Centrum Institutional Research 122

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