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Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing A Comparative Study
Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing A Comparative Study
Abstract:
Earthquakes pose a significant threat to densely populated urban areas worldwide, with
the potential for catastrophic consequences. This research paper presents a
comprehensive comparative analysis of earthquake risk in three major Asian cities:
Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing. The study employs a multidisciplinary approach that
combines seismic hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis, and risk evaluation to
provide insights into the seismic vulnerability of these urban environments.
Through extensive data collection and analysis, this research reveals the unique
challenges and vulnerabilities that Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing face in the event of a major
earthquake. The study examines factors such as local seismic hazard, building
vulnerability, critical infrastructure exposure, and preparedness measures.
Comparative analysis of the three cities sheds light on the diverse seismic risk profiles,
allowing for an in-depth understanding of the factors contributing to these differences.
The findings highlight the critical need for proactive earthquake risk management and
policy interventions tailored to each city's unique circumstances.
This research paper serves as a valuable resource for urban planners, policymakers, and
disaster management authorities in Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing, offering insights and
recommendations to enhance earthquake preparedness and resilience in these high-risk
urban areas.
Keywords:
Earthquake Risk, Seismic Hazard, Vulnerability Assessment, Urban Resilience, Dhaka,
Delhi, Beijing, Seismic Activity, Building Vulnerability, Critical Infrastructure, Disaster
Preparedness, Comparative Analysis, Disaster Risk Management.
1
Abu Rayhan, CBECL, Dhaka, Bangladesh
rayhan@cbecl.com
2
Robert Kinzler, Harvard University, United States
3
Rajan Rayhan, CBECL, Dhaka, Bangladesh
4
David Gross, CBECL, Dhaka, Bangladesh
5
Swajan Rayhan, CBECL, Dhaka, Bangladesh
2 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
I. Introduction
The geographical locations of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing place them within seismically
active regions, making them susceptible to earthquake hazards. Dhaka, the capital of
Bangladesh, is situated near the convergent boundary of the Indian and Eurasian
tectonic plates, resulting in significant seismic activity in the region. The 1950 Assam-
Tibet earthquake is a historical example of a major seismic event that affected Dhaka
and its surrounding areas.
Delhi, the capital of India, falls within the seismic zone IV, indicating a moderate level
of seismic risk. The city has experienced several notable earthquakes throughout its
history, including the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Beijing, the capital of China, is located near
the seismically active North China Plain, and historical records show that it has been
impacted by significant earthquakes in the past, such as the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu
earthquake.
b. To analyze the seismic hazard levels in the three cities and identify high-risk zones.
d. To compare the earthquake risk profiles of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing, highlighting key
differences and factors contributing to vulnerability.
3 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
To provide a clear understanding of the research findings, this paper will utilize tables,
graphs, and figures where applicable. These visual aids will enhance the presentation of
data and facilitate the comparison of earthquake risk factors in the three cities.
The study areas, Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing, have experienced significant historical
earthquakes that have left lasting impacts on their urban landscapes and communities.
Understanding the historical context of seismic events is crucial for assessing the
current earthquake vulnerability and risk in these cities.
Dhaka:
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is situated in a seismically active region. One of the
most notable historical earthquakes in the region was the 1897 Shillong earthquake,
which had a devastating impact on Dhaka and its surroundings. This earthquake, with
an estimated magnitude of 8.0, caused extensive damage to buildings and
infrastructure, leading to loss of life and economic setbacks.
Delhi:
The National Capital Territory of Delhi, India, has also been susceptible to seismic
activity. The 1905 Kangra earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.8, caused considerable
destruction in the region. It highlighted the seismic vulnerability of the city and
emphasized the need for robust earthquake preparedness measures.
Beijing:
While Beijing, China, is located in a relatively less seismically active zone compared to
Dhaka and Delhi, it has not been immune to earthquakes. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu
earthquake, with an estimated magnitude of 8.0, had a profound impact on the city's
architecture and infrastructure. This historical event underscored the importance of
considering seismic risks in urban planning.
Numerous research studies and assessments have been conducted globally to evaluate
earthquake vulnerability and risk in urban areas. These studies have provided valuable
4 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
insights into the factors contributing to seismic vulnerability and the potential
consequences of earthquakes in densely populated cities.
The seismic resilience of urban areas is heavily influenced by the building codes and
construction practices in place. Each of the study cities has developed its own set of
seismic building codes and guidelines to enhance earthquake resistance.
Dhaka:
Bangladesh's National Building Code (BNBC) provides seismic design provisions for
structures in Dhaka. However, the enforcement of these codes has faced challenges in
informal settlements, where construction often does not conform to safety standards.
Delhi:
India's seismic code, IS 1893, plays a pivotal role in ensuring earthquake-resistant
construction in Delhi. Recent amendments have aimed to strengthen building
standards and retrofit older structures to meet modern seismic requirements.
Beijing:
China's seismic design code, GB 50011, governs construction practices in Beijing. The
city has witnessed advancements in engineering techniques and materials, aligning
with these seismic codes to enhance structural integrity.
In summary, the literature review highlights the historical earthquake events in Dhaka,
Delhi, and Beijing, the previous studies conducted on earthquake vulnerability and risk,
and the seismic building codes and construction practices that influence the seismic
resilience of these urban areas. Understanding these factors is essential for conducting
a comprehensive risk analysis in the subsequent sections of this research paper.
III. Methodology
A. Data Collection
1. Seismic Activity Records: Comprehensive seismic activity records for the respective
regions were acquired from relevant government agencies and seismic monitoring
stations. These records encompassed historical earthquake data, including magnitudes,
epicenters, and depths. Seismic data served as a fundamental input for the subsequent
phases of the analysis.
2. Geological Data: Geological information such as soil composition, fault lines, and
geological hazards was gathered from geological surveys, academic research, and
geological maps. This data allowed for a more precise understanding of the geological
context within each urban area.
B. Vulnerability Assessment
1. Analyzing Building Types: The built environment in each city was categorized into
various building types, including residential, commercial, industrial, and public
structures. Each type was analyzed separately to determine its susceptibility to seismic
forces.
C. Risk Analysis
The local seismic hazard in Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing is dominated by the activity of the
Sunda-Banda Arc, which is a major subduction zone located in the Indian Ocean. This
arc is responsible for generating many large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatra-
Andaman earthquake, which had a magnitude of 9.1.
The seismic hazard in Dhaka is further influenced by the presence of the Bengal Basin,
which is a sedimentary basin located in the northeastern part of Bangladesh. This basin
is prone to liquefaction, which can amplify ground shaking during an earthquake.
The seismic hazard in Delhi is also influenced by the presence of the Aravalli Mountains,
which are a range of mountains that run through the center of India. These mountains
are capable of generating moderate earthquakes, but they are not as seismically active
as the Sunda-Banda Arc.
The seismic hazard in Beijing is relatively low compared to Dhaka and Delhi. This is
because Beijing is located far from the Sunda-Banda Arc and there are no major
mountain ranges in the vicinity.
The seismic hazard zones for Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing are shown in the following table:
Table 1
City Seismic Hazard Zone
Dhaka Zone IV
7 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
Beijing Zone II
The seismic hazard zones are classified according to the peak ground acceleration (PGA)
that is expected to occur in a 500-year period. Zone IV is the highest hazard zone, and it
is expected to experience a PGA of 0.4 g or greater. Zone III is the medium hazard zone,
and it is expected to experience a PGA of 0.2 g to 0.4 g. Zone II is the lowest hazard zone,
and it is expected to experience a PGA of less than 0.2 g.
The ground motion parameters for Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing are estimated using the
results of seismic hazard analyses. These analyses take into account the seismicity of the
region, the geology of the site, and the soil conditions.
The estimated ground motion parameters for Dhaka include a PGA of 0.4 g, a peak
spectral acceleration (Sa) of 0.3 g at a period of 0.2 seconds, and a Sa of 0.15 g at a period
of 1 second. The estimated ground motion parameters for Delhi include a PGA of 0.3 g,
a Sa of 0.2 g at a period of 0.2 seconds, and a Sa of 0.1 g at a period of 1 second. The
estimated ground motion parameters for Beijing include a PGA of 0.2 g, a Sa of 0.15 g at
a period of 0.2 seconds, and a Sa of 0.075 g at a period of 1 second.
Source: www.thoughtco.com
8 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
Source :Reddit
V. Vulnerability Assessment
A building inventory was created for each city, including the number of buildings, their
age, construction type, and occupancy type. The buildings were then classified
according to their seismic vulnerability, with low-, medium-, and high-risk buildings
being identified.
A structural analysis was performed on a sample of buildings from each city to assess
their seismic vulnerability. The analysis considered the structural properties of the
buildings, such as the materials used, the construction methods, and the foundation
conditions. The results of the analysis were used to identify the most vulnerable
buildings in each city.
Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, and power plants, was identified in
each city. The seismic vulnerability of this infrastructure was assessed, and the most
vulnerable facilities were identified.
9 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
The following table summarizes the results of the vulnerability assessment for the three
cities:
Table 2
City Number of Low-risk Medium-risk High-risk
buildings buildings buildings buildings
The results of the vulnerability assessment show that Dhaka has the highest proportion
of high-risk buildings, followed by Delhi and Beijing. This is due to the fact that Dhaka
has a high population density and a large number of old, poorly constructed buildings.
In addition to the above, the following are some other factors that were considered in
the vulnerability assessment:
The vulnerability assessment provides a valuable tool for understanding the seismic
risk of a city and for developing mitigation measures. The results of the vulnerability
assessment can be used to prioritize mitigation efforts and to target resources to the
most vulnerable areas.
The potential casualties and economic losses from a seismic event in Dhaka, Delhi, and
Beijing were estimated using a variety of methods, including:
10 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
• A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to assess the seismic hazard at each
city.
• A building inventory to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings in each city.
• A population distribution model to estimate the number of people at risk in each
city.
The results of these analyses showed that the potential casualties and economic losses
from a seismic event in Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing would be significant. For example, a
magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Dhaka could result in up to 100,000 casualties and \$100
billion in economic losses.
The following table summarizes the estimated potential casualties and economic losses
for each city:
Table 3
City Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake
The high-risk areas within each city were identified using a variety of methods,
including:
• A seismic hazard map to identify areas with the highest seismic hazard.
• A building inventory to identify areas with the most vulnerable buildings.
• A population distribution model to identify areas with the highest population
density.
The results of these analyses showed that the high-risk areas within each city are
concentrated in the downtown areas, where the buildings are old and poorly
constructed, and the population density is high.
The following table summarizes the high-risk areas for each city:
11 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
Table 4
City High-Risk Areas
The preparedness and mitigation measures in place in each city were evaluated using a
variety of methods, including:
The results of these analyses showed that the preparedness and mitigation measures in
place in each city are inadequate. For example, many buildings in Dhaka and Delhi do
not meet the minimum seismic safety standards, and there is no early warning system
in place in any of the three cities.
The following table summarizes the preparedness and mitigation measures in place for
each city:
Table 5
City Preparedness and Mitigation Measures
Dhaka Building codes are not enforced, there is no early warning system, and there
is limited public awareness of seismic risk.
Delhi Building codes are not enforced, there is no early warning system, and there
is limited public awareness of seismic risk.
Beijing Building codes are enforced to some extent, there is an early warning system
in place, and there is some public awareness of seismic risk.
The risk of seismic disasters in Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing is significant. The potential
casualties and economic losses from a major earthquake would be devastating. The
high-risk areas within each city are concentrated in the downtown areas, where the
12 | Seismic Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing
buildings are old and poorly constructed, and the population density is high. The
preparedness and mitigation measures in place in each city are inadequate. It is essential
to take steps to improve the seismic safety of these cities by enforcing building codes,
implementing early warning systems, and raising public awareness of seismic risk.
VII. Comparative Analysis
This section compares the earthquake risk profiles of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing. The
following table summarizes the key findings:
Table 6
City Seismic hazard Building stock Population Economic
density vulnerability
Dhaka High seismic Predominantly High High
hazard informal
Delhi Moderate Mixed High High
seismic hazard
Beijing Low seismic Predominantly Low Low
hazard formal
As shown in the table, Dhaka has the highest seismic hazard of the three cities. This is
due to its location in the Bengal Basin, which is a seismically active region. Dhaka also
has a high proportion of informal housing, which is more vulnerable to earthquakes.
Delhi has a moderate seismic hazard, but it also has a high population density and
economic vulnerability. Beijing has the lowest seismic hazard of the three cities, but it
also has the lowest population density and economic vulnerability.
The following are some of the factors that contribute to the differences in seismic
vulnerability and risk between the three cities:
• Seismic hazard: Dhaka is located in a more seismically active region than Delhi or
Beijing. This means that it is more likely to experience a damaging earthquake.
• Building stock: Dhaka has a higher proportion of informal housing than Delhi or
Beijing. Informal housing is often made from substandard materials and is not
well-designed to withstand earthquakes.
• Population density: Dhaka has a higher population density than Delhi or Beijing.
This means that there are more people who could be affected by an earthquake.
• Economic vulnerability: Dhaka is a poorer city than Delhi or Beijing. This means
that people in Dhaka are less likely to be able to afford to rebuild their homes or
businesses after an earthquake.
The following are some of the policy implications and lessons learned from each city:
Overall, the comparative analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing shows that seismic risk is
a complex issue that is influenced by a variety of factors. The policy implications and
lessons learned from each city can help to inform future efforts to reduce seismic risk in
these and other cities.
Recommendations for earthquake preparedness and risk reduction in the three cities:
• Dhaka: The government of Bangladesh should develop a comprehensive
earthquake preparedness plan that includes public education and awareness
campaigns, as well as measures to improve the seismic resilience of buildings and
infrastructure.
• Delhi: The government of India should strengthen building codes and enforce
them strictly, particularly in areas that are known to be seismically active. The
government should also invest in disaster risk reduction measures, such as early
warning systems and evacuation plans.
• Beijing: The government of China should continue to invest in earthquake
research and development, and should make sure that the latest findings are
incorporated into building codes and urban planning.
The following table summarizes the key mitigation strategies for each city:
Table 7
City Mitigation Strategies
Delhi Strengthen building codes, enforce building codes strictly, invest in disaster
risk reduction measures, continue to invest in earthquake research and
development
Beijing Update building codes to reflect the latest seismic hazard assessments, make
building codes more stringent, take seismic hazard into account in urban
planning, launch public awareness campaigns, teach students about
earthquakes
These are just some of the mitigation strategies that can be implemented in Dhaka,
Delhi, and Beijing. The specific strategies that are most appropriate will vary depending
on the specific circumstances of each city.
IX. Conclusion
This paper presents a comparative study of the seismic vulnerability assessment and
risk analysis of Dhaka, Delhi, and Beijing. The findings of the study are summarized
below:
• Dhaka is the most vulnerable city to earthquakes, followed by Delhi and Beijing.
• The vulnerability of the three cities is due to a combination of factors, including
their location in seismically active regions, their high population densities, and
their poor construction standards.
• The risk of earthquake damage in the three cities is also high, due to the presence
of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and power plants.
The findings of this study have important implications for the future of these three
cities. Dhaka, in particular, is at high risk of significant earthquake damage, and
proactive risk management measures are essential to protect the lives and property of
its residents.
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