University of Dar es Salaam

Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering

Chapter 3: Reliability Analysis

 Reliability
• Reliability can be considered and defined as:
– something is fit for a particular purpose with respect to
time;
– the capacity of a facility or system to perform its designed
duty;
– the resistance of a facility or system to failure;
– that ability of a facility or system to perform its required
function under specified conditions for a specified period
of time;
– the ability of something to “fail well” (fail without
catastrophic consequences)
– The probability that a product will perform successfully
under specified conditions for a given period of time.
 Reliability
• Reliability is also considered as the probability of
mission success
(e.g. reliability of a scheduled aircraft flight can be
specified as a dimensionless probability or a
percentage of successful flights)
• For single-shot devices or systems that remain
relatively dormant for a long period and they are
required to operate once in a critical situation
(e.g. automobile airbags and missiles), the
reliability is specified as a probability of success,
or is subsumed into a related parameter.
 Reliability theory
• What is Reliability?
• It is defined as the probability that a system
or facility will function satisfactorily within
specified limits for at least a given period of
time under certain operating conditions.
 Reliability theory - Cont.
• There are therefore four important
elements when talking about reliability of a
given system:
– Probability;
– satisfactory performance;
– minimum time; and
– operating conditions specifications.
 Elements of Reliability
• Probability indicates that reliability says something
about the ratio of actual operating time to the specified
period of operation.

• Satisfactory performance refers to the meeting of

certain criteria considered as acceptable performance
by management

• The element of time must be known in order to arrive

at the probability that a given equipment functions as
programmed.

• Specified operating conditions, are the environmental

standards such as temperature and humidity.
 System reliability parameters
• There are various reliability parameters but the most
common one is the “Mean Time Between Failures” (MTBF),
which can also be specified as the failure rate
• The reliability parameters are useful for systems that are
operated frequently, such as most motor vehicles, industrial
facilities, as well as electronic equipment
• The relationship between reliability and MTBF is that
reliability increases as the MTBF increases, i.e. the higher
the MTBF the higher the reliability of the facility
• Normally MTBF is presented using hours; however, it is also
possible to use other measurement such as kilometres or
cycles
 Reliability test requirements
• The testing for reliability requirements is a challenge for
several reasons:
– the testing of reliability requirement using a single test is
insufficient to generate enough statistical data on one
hand
– on the other hand the carrying of multiple tests or long-
duration tests is very expensive and it makes some tests
to become practically impossible
– Under these circumstances, the function of reliability
engineering is to design a realistic and affordable test
program that provides enough evidence that the system
meets its requirement.
 Reliability test requirements
• Reliability engineers use statistical confidence levels to
address the concerns regarding the numbers of tests that
are required to be carried out to meet system requirements

• Usually a certain parameter is expressed along with a

corresponding confidence level:

• E.g. an MTBF of 2000 hours at 80% confidence level. That

MTBF is the system requirement for the reliability and from
this specification, the reliability engineer can design a test
with explicit criteria for the number of hours and number of
failures until the requirement is met or failed.
 Reliability function
• is a function of time with the property
that 0  R(t)  1

1
R(t)

t
 Reliability function
• Let F(t) = the probability that the system
will fail by time t. Then:


R(t)= 1 - F(t)=  f(t)dt

t

Where F(t) is the probability that the system

will fail by time t, which can also referred to as failure
distribution function
f(t) is the probability density function of the variables t
(i.e., for the time to failure)
 Reliability Functions - cont

• Assuming that the time to failure is

described by an exponential function:
f(t) =  e- t

hence


R(t) = e
t
- t - t
= e
 Reliability function
• = is a constant
• From previous analysis we found that for a
negative exponential function  represents
an instantaneous failure rate (Z(t))
• Further analysis will show that:  = 1/MTBF.
• The mean time between failures (MTBF) is
the average of the lifetimes of a sample of n
similar items.
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
• Engineering and Science studies use
block diagrams to elaborate and simplify
relationships of several components
• The block diagrams are used to describe
the interrelation between the components
and to define the system
• Block diagrams are also used in reliability
engineering to study the functional
relationships between the components
Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
• A reliability block diagram is a graphical
representation of the components of the
system and how they are reliability-wise
related
• The Reliability Block Diagram can be
considered as a logic diagram for the
system based on its characteristics
• The logic relationship is most of the time
not the same as the physical connection
of the components.
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
• A system includes components,
subsystems and/or assemblies arranged
according to particular design for the
purpose of achieving desired functions with
acceptable performance and reliability
• The types, the quantities, the qualities of
components and the way they are
physically arranged within the system
determine the system's reliability
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
• to define the reliability of a system, it is important first to
define the reliability of group of components, sub-systems
and the sub-assemblies using block diagram
• The reliability engineer will then define the properties of
each block in a system
• When the blocks are connected in a reliability-wise
manner it is possible to get the reliability block diagram
for the whole system
• The Reliability Block Diagram provides a visual
representation of the way the blocks are reliability-wise
arranged
 Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
• The reliability-wise arrangement of components is
directly related to the derived mathematical
description of the system
• The mathematical description of the system is the
key to the determination of the reliability of the
system
• In fact, the system's reliability function is that
mathematical description (obtained using
probabilistic methods) and it defines the system
reliability in terms of the component reliabilities
 Reliability Analysis
• Objective of the analysis of the reliability
of the system include the followings:
– Identification and removal of potential weak
points in the system;
– Identification of critical equipment;
– Processing of error and failure relationships;
– Prognoses of the expected reliability of the
system; and
– Assurance of quality and reliability of the
processes
 Reliability Analysis
• The analysis of the reliability of the system answers
the following basic questions:
– What is the size of the reliability of the system
when the reliability of the components of the
system is known?
– What are the influences of the reliability of each
individual component on the reliability of the
whole system?
– What are the available possibilities for designing
of the reliability of the system and to increase the
reliability of an operating system?
 Methods for Reliability Analysis
• Methods available for analysis of the reliability of
the system can be grouped into qualitative and
quantitative methods
• Qualitative methods include risk analysis, system
and design Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
(FMEA)
• Quantitative methods include Boolean and Markov
models
• The Failure Tree Analysis (FTA), can as well be
grouped in qualitative groups as in quantitative
group
 Methods for Reliability Analysis
• A systematic analysis of the reliability of system can be
performed using the methods shown on Figure below

Methods of Reliability Analysis

Qualitative Methods Quantitative Methods

Risk analysis Boolean Models

System and Design FMEA Markov-Models

Events Process Analysis

Failure Tree Analysis

FMEA = Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

 Reliability Component Relationship
• The overall reliability of a system is a function
of the nature of the relationship between its
component parts
• There are basically series networks, parallel
networks and a combination of these as
underlying the make-up of system
• These networks are used in reliability block
diagrams and in static models for predicting
and analysing the reliability of systems
 Serial Networks
• A serial network must have all its components in
working order for the overall system to function.
• Since the failure behavior of each component is
statistically independent from that of the other
then the reliability of the system is the product
of the reliabilities for the individual component

In- A B Out-
put put

• R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) for a two component system

• R(t) = R1(t) x R2(t) x R3(t) .... x Rn(t) for n series-
connected components
 Serial Networks
• If it assumed that each component has
an exponential p.d.f. then
• R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) = e-1t.e-2t = e-(1+ 2)t

• Note: since the magnitudes of RA(t) and

RB(t) < 1, then combined R(t) for a
series-connected system will always be
less than that of any individual
component
 Examples for Serial Network
1. Suppose that an electronic system includes a
transmitter, a receiver, and a power supply.
The transmitter reliability is 0.8521, the
receiver reliability is 0.9712, and the power
supply reliability is 0.9357. Calculate the
reliability of the system
2. A small plant is required to operate for 1000
hrs. It has four series-connected subsystems
whose MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures)
are 6000 hrs, 4500 hrs, 10500 hrs and 3200
hrs. What is the overall reliability of the plant.
(Assume neg. exponential function)
 Solutions to the above examples

• Consider the serial combination of the

transmitter, receiver, and power supply
Trans. Rec. Pow.S

The overall reliability for the electronic system is:

= (0.8521)(0.9712)(0.9357)
= 0.7743
 Solution for the 2nd example
• Note i= 1 / M.T.B.F ,
• Therefore,
– 1 = 0.000167 failure/hr
– 2 = 0.000222 failure/hr
– 3 = 0.000095 failure/hr
– 4 = 0.000313 failure/hr
• R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) = e-1t.e-2t = e-(1+ 2)t
• R = e- (i)x 1000 = 0.4507
• The probability of the plant operating for at
least 1000 hrs is 45%.
• If the requirement were reduced to 500 hours,
the reliability would increase to about 67%.
 Parallel Networks
• Parallel networks have similar components
that have been arranged in parallel
• In a parallel network, all components must fail
in order to cause total system failure
 Parallel Networks
• For the two component system, the probability of
system failure in time t, F(t) is = FA(t) x FB(t).
Hence
– R(t) = 1 - F(t) = 1 - FA(t).FB(t)
– = 1 - [1 - RA(t)].[1 - RB(t)]
– = RA(t) + RB(t) - RA(t)RB(t) for 2-component system
• For n - components in parallel each with the same
R
– R(t) = 1 - (1 - R)n
 Parallel Networks
• Parallel redundant networks are principally
used to increase the overall reliability of a
system
• For instance, assume that a system
includes two identical subsystems in
parallel and that the reliability of each
subsystem is 0.95
• Reliability (R) = 0.95+0.95- (0.95)(0.95) =
0.9975
 Parallel Networks
• Suppose that the reliability of the
system above needs improvement
beyond 0.9975.
• By adding a third identical subsystem in
parallel, the system reliability is as
follows:
• Reliability R = 1-(1-0.95)3
 Combined series-parallel networks
• Various levels of reliability can be achieved
through the application of a combination of
series and parallel networks

Fig. series-parallel networks

 Combined series-parallel networks
• With combined series-parallel networks,
computation of the overall system
reliability is obtained by first evaluating
the reliability of the redundant (parallel)
elements.
• Then the overall reliability is computed
by finding the product of the
"equivalent" series quantities
 Reliability Planning
• Reliability is an intrinsic characteristic of the
design of a system; it must be planned,
determined, and specified as part of the overall
planning of the system.
• Part of the reliability planning exercise:
– Establish the quantitative and qualitative reliability
requirements for the system
– Apportion the established requirements to the
subsystem level and beyond
– Use variety of design procedures, techniques and
practices to ensure that components have the
necessary reliability level (or M.T.B.F)
 Reliability Planning
– Analyse the reliability of the resultant network of
components with the help of block-diagrams,
mathematical models, stress-strength analysis (i.e.
stress-strength relationship under severe loading
conditions - dynamic, shock, high temperature,
worst-case analyses, etc.)
– Establish different ways in which components in
the resultant system can fail and the effects of
these failures on other elements of the system
– Perform reliability predictions and assessment, as
more and more engineering data is made available
 Reliability Planning
– Consider the effects on reliability of storage,
packaging, transportation, handling,
maintenance, etc.
– Perform Critical-useful Life Analyses (CLA) -
During the design phase, critical items are
listed along with their expected life in terms of
calendar time, operating cycles, or system
operating hours.
– Perform formal design reviews, focusing on
the evaluation of the characteristics of the
system and its elements as to see how they
meet the initially specified reliability
requirements for the system
 Reliability Planning
• Conduct reliability test and evaluation to
see whether the system meets the
specified MTBF requirements
• Once the system is put to commercial or
actual routine operations, evaluate the
reliability of the systems to obtain
"operational reliability“ of the system
 Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM)

• RCM is a systematic analysis whereby the

system is evaluated in terms of possible
failures, the consequences of these
failures, and the recommended
maintenance in case of failure
• The objective is to design a preventive
maintenance according to possible failure
consequences
 Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM)

• The RCM analysis is very similar to the

Failure Mode and Criticality Analysis -
FMECA

• RCM should be accomplished in

conjunction with the FMECA, and should
constitute a major data input for the
Logistic Support Analysis (LSA)
 RCM Characteristics
• RCM is characterized by the following features:
– The primary objective of RCM is to preserve system
function
– The failure modes that cause functional failure need
to be identified
– The failure modes need to be prioritized to reflect
their importance to the system function
• RCM offers a sound framework for optimizing
the maintenance effort and getting the
maximum out of the resources committed to the
PM program
 Design for reliability
• Reliability engineering is coming with a new
phenomenon, which is “Design for Reliability
(DfR)”
• DfR is an up-and-coming discipline that insists
that reliability must be designed into products.
• DfR process comprises several tools and
practices and describes the order of their
deployment in order to ensure that an
organisation has in place the necessary items
that will help them to put reliability into the
products
 Design for reliability
• The first step in the DfR process is to set
the system’s reliability requirements.
• Reliability must be "designed in" to the
system
• During system design, the top-level
reliability requirements are then allocated
to subsystems.
 Design for reliability
• Reliability design commences with the development of a
reliability model
• A reliability model is developed using block diagrams and
fault trees to show graphical the relationships between
different components of the system
• The reliability models incorporate predictions based on
parts-count failure rates obtained from historical data
• Although the predictions are often not accurate in every
aspect but they are useful in facilitating an assessment of
relative differences in design alternatives
Design for reliability
 Design for reliability
• One of the most important design techniques is
redundancy.
• In redundancy the system is designed with an extra
subsystem such that when one part of the system
fails, there is an alternate success path, such as a
backup system.
• Redundancy increases system reliability
tremendously, and is often the only viable means of
doing so.
• However, redundancy is difficult and expensive,
and is therefore limited to critical parts of the
system
 Design for reliability
• Physics of Failure (PoF) is another design
technique that requires the understanding of
the physical processes of stress, strength and
failure at a very detailed level
• Then the material or component can be re-
designed to reduce the probability of failure
once their physics are known
 Design for reliability
• Component derating is a common design
technique in which the designer selects
components whose tolerance significantly
exceeds the expected stress.

• (e.g. in electrical systems when one uses a

heavier gauge wire that exceeds the normal
specification for the expected electrical
current is using component derating)
 Why Predictive Reliability Is the Key To Improved
Maintenance Performance?
• Predictive reliability is a maintenance strategy that uses data analysis and
predictive modeling techniques to forecast an equipment's performance and
reliability.

• Organizations can develop a predictive maintenance schedule by analyzing

past failures and maintenance records to prevent disruptions and improve
reliability.

• It’s an essential aspect of asset management, enabling companies to identify

potential issues before they occur and take preventive measures.

• A computerized maintenance management system (CMMS) helps with a

centralized platform for storing and analyzing performance and maintenance
history.

• Attaching sensor device equipment helps collect real-time data on the

machine's condition. This is then streamed directly into your CMMS software,
allowing you to monitor equipment status.

• When sensor data indicate there’s a problem, work order are automatically
generated. This means you can act before a breakdown occurs. Catching
issues before they become major problems help avoid downtimes.
 Goal of predictive reliability analysis
• Predictive reliability analysis helps identify potential
failures in equipment or systems before they occur and
implement proactive maintenance strategies.

• Businesses can achieve this through various methods,

including analyzing the performance and maintenance
history of the equipment, forecasting future
performance and reliability using statistical analysis and
predictive modeling techniques, and developing
strategies.

• Organizations can reduce downtime, improve

productivity, and increase overall operational reliability
by using data-driven approaches.
 How to implement predictive reliability analysis?
• Identify the equipment
• Develop a failure mode and effects analysis
(FMEA)
• Performance and maintenance history data
• Use statistical analysis and predictive
modeling techniques
• Develop and implement strategies for
improving performance and reliability
 Examples of predictive reliability analysis by industry
1. Manufacturing: By analyzing data from sensors, controllers, and other
sources, manufacturers can identify potential failures before they happen
and schedule maintenance.

2. Energy: Predictive reliability helps energy companies identify potential

problems with their equipment and mitigate risks. For example, an energy
company uses predictive analysis to determine when a transformer will fail
and schedule maintenance or replacement before it causes an outage.

3. Transportation: Predictive reliability helps these companies identify when a

vehicle is likely to fail and schedule maintenance or replacement. For
example, a trucking company uses predictive analysis to identify when a
truck's tires are likely to wear out and replace them before they cause a
breakdown.

4. Healthcare: By analyzing data from sensors, controllers, and other sources,

healthcare providers can identify potential failures before they occur and
schedule maintenance. For example, a hospital can determine when a
ventilator will fail and schedule maintenance or replacement.
 Benefits of predictive reliability analysis in
maintenance management
• Reduces system downtime. Organizations can prevent disruptions and minimize
downtime by identifying failures in advance.

• Improves equipment reliability. Predictive reliability analysis helps organizations

identify and address potential failures before they occur.

• Saves cost. Predictive analytics helps extend the lifespan of assets by identifying
and fixing problems before they become major issues.

• Enhances workplace safety. Predictive reliability analysis help identifies and

prevent workplace failures that may pose a safety risk.

• Helps collect continuous data. Use predictive analytics to generate real-time

reports on company spending and create enhanced forecasts for future
expenditures. Integrating your CMMS with HR software provides on-demand
dashboards that show a complete view of human, asset, and financial capital.

• Improves asset retirement processes. Predictive analytics improves asset

retirement processes by identifying when an asset nears replacement, allowing
teams to sell the used but still functioning machine.
 Advanced tips to help you improve your
predictive reliability analysis program
• Use machine learning and artificial intelligence. By automating the data collection
and analysis process, you can more quickly and accurately identify patterns and
trends in your data. This can provide valuable insights into the performance of your
systems and equipment.
• Develop a comprehensive predictive maintenance strategy. In addition to
predictive reliability analysis, consider incorporating other techniques, such as
condition-based monitoring and spare parts management, into your strategy. This
can help you prevent failures and maintain the reliability of your operations more
effectively.

• Collaborate with other organizations and industry experts. Sharing data and best
practices with others can help you learn from their experiences and improve the
effectiveness of your program.

• Invest in training and education. Ensuring your maintenance staff has the skills and
knowledge to implement and maintain a successful predictive reliability analysis
program is crucial.
• Continuously monitor and evaluate. Regularly monitoring and evaluating your
predictive reliability analysis program can help you identify any areas for
improvement.
END