EMS 311: RELIABILITY AND MAINTENANCE

MANAGEMENT

Chapter 4: Reliability and Failure

Analysis
 Defining Reliability
• Reliability is defined as the probability that a
system or facility will function satisfactorily
within specified limits for at least a given period
of time under certain operating conditions.
• Four important elements when talking about
reliability of a given system.
i. probability,
ii. satisfactory performance,
iii. minimum time, and
iv. operating conditions specifications.
Reliability function
• The reliability, denoted by R(t), is a function of
time with the property that 0  R(t)  1

Let F(t) = the probability that the system will fail by time t. Then:
 Failure distribution function f(t)
• Failure distribution function f(t) is the probability density
function of the variable, t (i.e., for the time to failure).
– Assuming that the time to failure is described by an exponential
function:

Hence:

Where;
= a constant (for a negative exponential function  represents an
instantaneous failure rate).
• Further analysis will show that  = 1/MTBF.
• The mean time between failures (MTBF) is the average of the
lifetimes of a sample of n similar items.
 The failure rate ()
• The rate at which failures occur in a specified
time interval is called the failure rate during that
interval.
• The failure rate () is expressed as:

• The failure rate may be expressed in terms of failures

per hour, percent fail­ures per 1,000 hours, or failures
per million hours.
System life cycle
Reliability Component Relationship
• The overall reliability of a system is a function of
the nature of the relationship between its
component parts.
• It is usually appropriate and common to consider
– series networks,
– parallel networks and
– a combination of these as underlying the make-up of
system.
• These networks are used in reliability block
diagrams and in static models for predicting and
analyzing the reliability of systems.
 Serial Networks
• A serial network must have its components in working
order for the overall system to function in an
acceptable way

R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) for a two component system and

R(t) = R1(t) x R2(t) x R3(t) .... x Rn(t) for n series-connected

components.

For example, if it assumed that each component has an exponential

p.d.f. then:
R(t) = RA(t) x RB(t) = e-1t.e-2t = e-(1+ 2)t
 Example 1
Suppose that an electronic system includes a
transmitter, a receiver, and a power supply. The
transmitter reliability is 0.8521, the receiver
reliability is 0.9712, and the power supply reliability
is 0.9357. The overall relia­bility for the electronic
system is

= (0.8521)x(0.9712)x(0.9357) = 0.7743
Example 2
A small plant is required to operate for 1000 hrs. It has
four series-connected subsystems whose MTBF (Mean
Time Between Failures) are 6000 hrs, 4500 hrs, 10500 hrs
and 3200 hrs. What is the overall reliability of the plant.
Assume exponential p.d.f behavior.
Solution: i= 1 / M.T.B.F
i.e., 1 = 0.000167 failure/hr, 2 = 0.000222 failure/hr, 3
= 0.000095 failure/hr, and 4 = 0.000313 failure/hr,
Therefore, R = e- (i)x 1000 = 0.4507
i.e., the probability of the plant operating for at least 1000
hrs is 45%. If the requirement were reduced to 500 hours,
the reliability would increase to about 67%.
Parallel Networks
• Parallel networks have similar components that
have been arranged in parallel
– In a parallel network, all components must fail in
order to cause total system failure.
– The system depicted in the figure below will function
if either A or B, or both are working.
System reliability for parallel networks
• For the two component system, the probability of
system failure in time t, F(t) is = FA(t) x FB(t)
Hence, R(t) = 1 - F(t) = 1 - FA(t)xFB(t)
= 1 - [1 - RA (t)]x[1 - RB(t)]
= RA (t) + RB(t) - RA(t)RB(t) for 2-component system
• For n - components in parallel each with the same
R, R(t) = 1 - (1 - R)n
• Parallel redundant networks are principally used
to increase the overall reliability of a system.
– An example is the use of a spare tyre in a car
Combined Series-Parallel Networks
• Various levels of reliability can be achieved through the
application of a combination of series and parallel
networks

• With combined series-parallel networks, computation of

the overall system reliability is obtained by first evaluating
the reliability of the redundant (parallel) elements.
• Then the overall reliability is computed by finding the
product of the "equivalent" series quantities.
Reliability Planning (1)
• Reliability is an intrinsic characteristic of the design of a
system; it must be carefully planned, determined, and
specified as part of the overall planning of the system.
• Key issues in reliability planning include:
a) Establishment of the quantitative and qualitative reliability
requirements for the system
b) The allocation or apportionment of the requirements
stipulated in “a)” to the subsystem level and beyond
c) Using a variety of design procedures, techniques and
practices to ensure that components have the necessary
reliability level (or M.T.B.F)
d) Analysis of the reliability of the resultant network of
components
 Reliability Planning (2)
d) Early in the study, establishment of the different ways
in which components in the resultant system can fail
e) Perform reliability predictions and assessment, as
more and more engineering data is made available
f) Perform Critical-useful Life Analyses (CLA)
g) Formal design reviews, focusing on the evaluation of
the characteristics of the system and its elements
h) Conduct reliability test and evaluation to see whether
the system meets the specified MTBF requirements.
i) "operational reliability assessment". This consists of
on going collection of data, analysis and corrective
action
 Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
• RCM is a systematic analysis approach whereby the system design
is evaluated in terms of :
– possible failures,
– the consequences of these failures, and
– the recommended maintenance procedures that should be
implemented.
• The objective is to design a preventive maintenance program by
evaluating the maintenance for an item according to possible
failure consequences.
• The RCM analysis is very similar to the Failure Mode and Criticality
Analysis - FMECA
– in many respects, should be accomplished in conjunction with the
FMECA, and
– should constitute a major data input for the Logistic Support Analysis
(LSA).
 Failure Analysis
• Failures can be classified using different viewpoints,
– Cause of failure,
– type of failure,
– Extent of damage,
– Repair -ability, and
– Rate of failure.
• The causes of failure can be classified into two main groups:
– Attrition failure (corrosion, fatigue, aging and abrasion failures),
and
– Excessive stress
• Regarding the excessive stress, failure of a component of a piece
of equipment occurs at a point where stress towards which a
part is subjected exceeds the strength of the part at that time.
 Why failure analysis?
• Failure analysis is a useful tool in determining the
effectiveness of maintenance programs and in
predicting subsequent maintenance actions.
• Although failure analysis is normally done at a
component level,
– it can also be applied to systems and major capital
equipment.
• Failure analysis can be applied in designing optimal
maintenance strategies and obtaining information
about availability and reliability of equipment.
 Statistical Failure Analysis
• The graphical presentation of failure data can either
be by
– histograms, or
– by smooth curves of probability functions
Failure Probability Density Functions (pdfs)
• The following are among the distribution
functions used in presenting the failure data:
– Normal distribution,
– Weibull distribution,
– Log-normal, and
– Binomial distribution.
• Normal and, especially Weibull distributions are
highly preferred in failure data analysis,
– the latter of which has the advantage of being able to
handle skewed distributions
 Pareto or ABC Failure Analysis
• Pareto analysis puts more emphasis on the total
failure costs than just on the frequency of
occurrence.
• In Pareto analysis, the frequency of each defect is
recorded together with an estimate of the remedy
cost.
– The frequency is then multiplied by the cost and the
result is the total cost penalty for each type of failure.
– The defects are then arranged in a descending order of
their total costs; the defect with the highest cost is placed
at the top, and that with the lowest total cost is placed at
the bottom.
 Pareto or ABC Failure Analysis
Table: Pareto Analysis
Types of defect Frequency Cost Total cost %age of Total
(In ,000 Tshs) (In ,000 Tshs) cost
Valves 15 300 4,500 45
Control panel 10 200 2,000 19
Fuse board 25 75 1,875 18
Hydraulic system 3 450 1,350 13
Others 47 15 705 7
Total 10,430 100

• Pareto analysis implies that concentrating effort on

one type of defect can drastically reduce total cost
of failure.
Weibull Distribution Function
• Weibull distribution function originated from
fatigue test studies.
• Weibull distribution function has the following
features, which are very attractive in failure
analysis:
– the distribution function is very flexible, it can deal
with increasing, constant and decreasing failure rates;
– its mathematical simplicity makes it easy to use; and
– The function can be easily used for graphic analysis
Weibull Distribution Function

 t  
F(t)  1  exp   
    

dF (t )  t      t    
 1
f (t )   exp    
dt      

Where;
t = time parameter,
 = shape parameter,
 = time at F(t) = 0, it is datum parameter
 = scale parameter
Characteristics of Weibull distribution
function
• There are at least four characteristics of F (t) at various ““
values:
a)  < 1: F(t) decreases as t increases. This is the case of
decreasing failure rate with time.
b)  = 1 in this case the Weibull equation is reduced into a
negative exponential distribution function. This shows a
constant local failure rate.
c) 1<  < 2, gives a skewed distribution function, which show a
rapid decrease of F’(t) as t approaches 0. This represents an
increase in the failure rate with time.
d)  > 2 the distribution becomes more symmetrical as the values
of B increases. At  = 3.2 the Weibull distribution function is
approximately equal to the Normal distribution function. This
also is the case for increasing local failure rate.
Failure Rate
• The instantaneous failure rate of equipment at
time t is the probability that the equipment
will fail in the next time interval given that it is
working at the start of the interval.
Negative exponential failure distribution

Z(t) =  (i.e. the failure rate is constant)

Hyper-exponential failure distribution
Failure rate curve Region A represents a decreasing failure rate.
Failure behavior in this region can be modeled
by the hyper-exponential p.d.f since the Z(t)
of this p.d.f decreases with time.

Region B is the normal operation

phase. The negative exponential pdf is
applicable to the modeling of
behavior of equipment in this phase
of operation.

Region C is the so called "wear-out" region where failure rate is increasing with time due to
aging factors. Failure behavior in this region can be modeled by either the Normal
distribution function or the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution can also be used
for the other regions as well.