Distribution

System
Reliability Analysis

Operation Technology, Inc. 1 ETAP PowerStation

 Power System Reliability Analysis
• Reliability – The probability of a system performing
its function adequately, for the period of time and
operation conditions intended.
• Adequacy -- Sufficient facilities within the system
to satisfy customer demand.
• Security -- Ability of the system to respond to
disturbances arising within that system.
• Reliability Assessment for
• Generation station and generation capacity
• Composite generation and transmission System
• Distribution System
• Substation and switching stations
• Protection system
• Used in system planning and operation
• Various Indices to Measure Reliability
• Probability – LOLP
• Customer Interruption Frequency
• Customer Interruption Duration
• Customer Curtailment – Power/energy not served
• Reliability Worth Study
• Minimize Total Cost: Reliability Cost and
Consumer Interruption Cost

Operation Technology, Inc. 2 ETAP PowerStation

 Distribution System Reliability Analysis

• Concerned with availability and quality of power

supply at each customer’s service entrance –
Adequacy Analysis

• Statistics show that failures in distribution systems

contribute as much as 90% towards the unavailability
of supply to a load as compared with other parts of
electric power systems.

• Assess distribution system reliability level for radial

and looped systems with a very efficient algorithm.

• Considers single and double contingencies.

• Assess reliability level for system and each load point

based on component failure model and system
configuration.

• Sensitivity analysis identifies optimal spot to make

greatest improvement on system reliability at
minimum cost.

Operation Technology, Inc. 3 ETAP PowerStation

 Single-Component Concepts
• Two-State Model
A two-state up/down representation is used for the
operation/repair cycle of a component (such as lines,
cables, transformers, breaks, fuses, switches, loads and
busbars).
λ = (λA+λP)

UP DOWN
μ

Up

……..

Down

……..

MTTF MTTR MTTF MTTR

Operation Technology, Inc. 4 ETAP PowerStation

 Component Model
• λA -- Active Failure Rate (No of Failures/Year)
• Causes the operation of the protection devices
around the failed component, i.e. a short-circuit
fault.
• Failed component itself (and those components
that are directly connected to this failed
component) restores to service after repair or
replacement
• λP-- Passive Failure Rate (No of Failures/Year)
• Does not cause the operation of protection around
the failed component, i.e. an open circuit fault.
• Failed component itself (and its downstream
components) restores to service after repair or
replacement.
• MTTR -- Mean Time To Repair in hours
• Time for a crew to repair a component outage
and/or restore the system to its normal operating
state.
• μ -- Mean Repair Rate (No of repairs per year)

μ = 8760/MTTR.

Operation Technology, Inc. 5 ETAP PowerStation

 • MTTF -- Mean Time To Failure (year)
MTTF = 1.0/(λA+λP)

• MTBF -- Mean Time Between Failure (year)

MTTF = MTTF + MTTR/8760

• FOR -- Forced Outage Rate (Unavailability)

FOR = MTTR/(MTBF*8760)
• Switching Time
• Time in hours for isolating a fault occurred at the
component.
•

• rP -- Time for replacing a failed element by a spare

one, in hours.

Operation Technology, Inc. 6 ETAP PowerStation

 Model for Components in Series/Parallel

• Two Component in Series

Component 1 Component 2

λ1, r1 λ2, r2

λsys = λ + λ
1 2

λ r + λ r + (λ r )(λ r ) λ r +λ r
rsys = 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 ≈ 1 1 2 2
λsys λsys

Example
Consider the simple radial system shown in Fig.1.
The assumed failure rates and repair times of each line A,
and B are shown in Table I and the load-point reliability
indices are shown in Table II. The results for this
Operation Technology, Inc. 7 ETAP PowerStation
example were evaluated using the basic concepts of
network reliability. This assumes that the failure of line
elements A and B are simple open circuits with no
compound effects, i.e. the failure of line element B does
not affect L1. This is the same as assuming perfect
isolation of faults on line elements A and B by the
breakers shown in Fig.1.

Supply A B

L1 L2

Fig.1. Simple 2-load radial system.

Table I. Component data for the system of Fig.1

Line λ(f/yr) r(hours)
A 0.20 6.0
B 0.10 5.0

Table II. Load-point reliability indices for the system of Fig.1

Load point λ(f/yr) r(hours) U(hours/yr)
L1 0.20 6.0 1.2
L2 0.30 5.7 1.7

Operation Technology, Inc. 8 ETAP PowerStation

 • Two Component in Parallel
Component 1

λ1, r1

λ2, r2

Component 2

λ λ (r + r ) / 8760
λsys = 1 2 1 2 ≈ λ λ (r + r ) / 8760
1+ (λ r + λ r ) / 8760 1 2 1 2
11 22

rr
rsys = r 1+ 2r
1 2

Operation Technology, Inc. 9 ETAP PowerStation

Example
Consider the simple parallel system shown in Fig.2.
and the load-point reliability indices are shown in Table
III.
A
Supply

B L

Fig.2. Simple parallel system.

Table III. Load-point reliability indices for the system of Fig.2

Load point λ(f/yr) r(hours) U(hours/yr)
L 0.000025114 2.7273 0.000068494

Operation Technology, Inc. 10 ETAP PowerStation

 System Modeling
• Fault Current Interruption
• Only overcurrent protection devices (CB and fuse)
can interrupt fault current.
• Fault current interruption assumed to be
instantaneous.
• Assumed no effect on components with multiple
source connection and isolated from fault by
CB/fuses.
• Fault Isolation
• All switching device can isolate fault.
• CBs and fuses isolate fault instantaneously
• Switches isolate fault at switching time of the
faulted component.
• Switching time for a load equal to that of the
closest component.
• Service restored to faulted component at the smaller
value of repair time and replacement time.
• Normally Open Tie
• Two terminal buses are energized.
• Can have several PDs connected in series and with
more than one open.
• Open tie PD can be closed (switching time) to
provide back up power.
•

Operation Technology, Inc. 11 ETAP PowerStation

 Library for Reliability Analysis

• Component Reliability
• Data for each type of component, transformer,
bust, line, etc.
• Typical data from IEEE Standard.

• Sector Customer Interruption Cost

• Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) is used to
divide customers into seven categories of large
user, industrial, commercial, agriculture,
residential, government & institutions and office &
buildings.
• Sector Customer Damage Functions (SCDF) --
interruption costs for several discrete outage
durations.
• A log-log interpolation of the cost data is used
where the interruption duration lies between two
separate times.
• If fault duration is outside range, a linear
extrapolation with the same slope as that between
the two largest durations are used to calculate the
interruption cost.

Operation Technology, Inc. 12 ETAP PowerStation

 Distribution System Reliability Indices
• Average Failure Rate at Load Point, λi(f/yr)
λi = ∑ λe, j
j∈Ne
λe,j -- The average failure rate of element j (or element
combination j, such as double contingency)
Ne -- The total number of the elements whose faults will
interrupt load point i.

• Annual Outage Duration at Load Point, Ui(hr/yr)

U = ∑ λ r
i j∈Ne e, j ij

rij --Failure duration at load point i due to a failed element j.

• Average Outage Duration at Load Point, ri(hr)

r =U / λ
i i i

• Expected Energy Not Supplied Index at Load

Point, EENSi (MWhr/yr)
EENSi = P U
i i
Pi -- the average load of load point i.

Operation Technology, Inc. 13 ETAP PowerStation

 • Expected Interruption Cost Index at Load Point,
ECOSTi (k$/yr)
ECOST = P ∑ f (r )λ
i i j∈Ne ij e, j

Where f(rij) is the SCDF.

The EENS and ECOST for a bus are calculated based on loads
that are directly connected to that bus due to the outage of that
bus.

• Interrupted Energy Assessment Rate Index at

Load Point, IEARi ($/kWhr)

ECOST
IEAR = i
i EENS
i

• System Average Interruption Frequency Index,

SAIFI (f/customer.yr)

Total number of customer interruptions ∑ λi Ni

SAIFI = =
Total number of customer served ∑ Ni
Where N is the number of customers at load point i
i

Operation Technology, Inc. 14 ETAP PowerStation

 • System Average Interruption Duration Index,
SAIDI(hr/customer.yr)

Sum of customer interruption durations ∑Ui Ni

SAIDI = =
Total number of customer served ∑ Ni

• Customer Average Interruption Duration Index,

CAIDI(hr/customer interruption)

Sum of customer interruption duration s ∑Ui Ni

CAIDI = =
Total number of customerinterruptions ∑ N λ i
i

• Average Service Availability Index, ASAI(pu)

ASAI = Customer hoursof available service
Customer hours demanded

∑ Ni ×8760 − ∑ NiUi
=
∑ N i×8760
Where 8760 is the number of hours in a calendar year.

• Average Service Unavailability Index, ASUI(pu)

ASUI =1− ASAI

Operation Technology, Inc. 15 ETAP PowerStation

 • System Expected Energy Not Supplied Index,
EENS(MWhr/yr)

EENS = Total energy not supplied by the system = ∑ EENSi

• System Expected Interruption Cost Index,

ECOST(k$/yr)

ECOST = ∑ ECOST
i

• Average Energy Not Supplied Index,

AENS(MWhr/customer.yr)

Total energy not supplied by the system ∑ EENSi

AENS = =
Total number of customer served ∑ Ni

• System Interrupted Energy Assessment Rate

Index, IEAR($/kWhr)
IEAR = ECOST
EENS

Operation Technology, Inc. 16 ETAP PowerStation

 Calculation Results

• Reliability Indices
• System Reliability Indices
• Load Point Reliability Indices – for each bus and
individual load.
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Sensitivity analysis for system and load point for
EENS and ECOST at user defined level.
• Useful for determining key components for
improving system reliability level at minimum
cost.

Operation Technology, Inc. 17 ETAP PowerStation

 Examples
• Example I
This is a simple system whose input data are shown as follows:
U1, Bus1 and Bus2: λ = 0.001 Failure/year, MTTR = 2 hours
Cabl1: λ = 0.05 Failure/year⋅km, MTTR = 30 hours,
Length = 1 km

The calculation results are shown on the OLV, which can be verified
by hand calculation as follows:
Bus1 and Bus2:
λ = 3(Bus1,Bus2 and U1)*0.001 (Failure/year)+ 0.05
(Failure/year)
= 0.053 (Failure/year);
U = 3*0.001*2(hr)+0.05*30(hr) = 1.506 hr/year
r = U/ λ = 28.42 (hr/Failure);

Operation Technology, Inc. 18 ETAP PowerStation

 • Example II

Results for the Double Contingency case:

Calculations for the Double Contingency case:

For simplicity for hand calculations:

• Failure rates for the breakers connecting the transformers to the
buses are taken to be zero

• Failure rates of the two transformers are taken to be 1; MTTR =

200 hr.

Therefore the failure rate at Bus 2 due to double contingency:

λ1λ2 (r1 + r2 ) 1⋅1⋅ (200 + 200)
λdouble = 8760 = 8760 = 0.0436681 failures / year
λ1r1 + λ2 r2 1⋅ 200 + 1 ⋅ 200
1+ 1+
8760 8760

Operation Technology, Inc. 19 ETAP PowerStation

Failure rate for the single contingency case:

λsin gle = λU 1 + λ CB1 + λ CB1 + λ +λ + λ CB 6

A P A
MainBus Bus 2

= 0.011 failures / year

Therefore total failure rate at Bus 2 :

λBus 2 = λdouble + λsin gle

= 0.0436681 + 0.011 = 0.0546681 failures / year

• Example III

11kV
SP F2

LP8 LP9 N/O

F1

LP1 LP2 LP3 LP4 LP5 LP6 LP7

This is a typical distribution system of 23 buses, one normally open

tie (or tie circuit connection). This example is from the IEEE papers
(IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol.6, No.2, May 1991, pp. 813-820,
and IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, Vol.6, No.4, October 1991, pp.
1876-1882), and made the following assumptions:
1. 11 kV circuit breakers operate successfully when required.
2. Disconnects are opened whenever possible to isolate a fault.
Power supply is restored to as many load points as possible using
appropriate disconnects and alternative supplies if available.

Operation Technology, Inc. 20 ETAP PowerStation

 The reliability indices have been evaluated and some of the results
are shown below.

(1) The results of λ, r, U and EENS from ETAP and the IEEE agree with each other
(2) Some of results of ECOST (and IEAR) from ETAP are verified by hand calculation as follows:

The LP1 has the user sector of Residential of Sector Interruption Cost Function (SCDF):
0.01 for 1 min, 0.093 for 20 min, 0.482 for 60 min, 4.914 for 240 min, 15.69 for 480 min

Using a log-log liner extrapolation, we have:

SCDF(60)=0.482 $/kW
LogSCDF(120)=Log0.482+(Log4.914-Log0.482)*(Log120-Log60)/(Log240-Log60)
=0.1874
SCDF(120)=1.5396
LogSCDF(300)=Log4.914+(Log15.69-Log4.914)*(Log300-Log240)/(Log480-Log240)
=0.84386
SCDF(300)=6.98 $/kW
SCDF(12000)=15.69+(15.69-4.914)*(12000-480)/(480-240) =532.938 $/kW
(Note that the normal scale is used because12000min > Largest duration 480min)

Operation Technology, Inc. 21 ETAP PowerStation

 The elements that can interrupt LP1 have:
One 11/0.415 transformer with λ of 0.015f/yr, MTTR of 200hr(12000min)
Line 2 with λ of 0.065f/yr.km*0.6km, MTTR of 5hr(300min)
Line 1 with λ of 0.065f/yr.km*0.75km, MTTR of 5hr(300min)
Line 4 with λ of 0.065f/yr.km*0.75km, Switching Time of 1hr(60min)
Line 7 with λ of 0.065f/yr.km*0.75km, Switching Time of 1hr(60min)
Line 10 with λ of 0.065f/yr.km*0.6km, Switching Time of 1hr(60min)
10 kV supply bus with λ of 0.001f/yr, MTTR of 2hr(120min)

The ECOST at LP1 is:

{0.015*SCDF(12000)+(0.6+0.75)*0.065*SCDF(300)+(0.75+0.75+0.6)*0.065*SCDF(60)
+0.001*SCDF(120)}*0.535MW= 4.614 k$/yr

(3) Hand Calculation of System Indices

SAIFI = Total number of customer interruptions/Total number of customers served

= ΣλiNi/ΣNi
=(0.2403*210+0.2533*210+0.2533*210+0.2403*1+0.2533*1+0.25*10+0.2533*10
+0.1407*1+0.1407*1)/(210+210+210+1+1+10+10+1+1) = 162.657/654
= 0.2487 f/customer.yr

SAIDI = Total number of customer interruptions/Total number of customers served

= ΣUiNi/ΣNi
=(3.5773*210+3.6423*210+3.6423*210+3.5773*1+3.6423*1+3.626*10+3.6033*10
+0.5447*1+0.5058*1)/(210+210+210+1+1+10+10+1+1) = 2361.56/654
= 3.6109 hr/customer.yr

CAIDI = ΣUiNi/ΣλiNi = 2361.56/162.657= 14.521 hr/customer interruption

ASAI = (Σ8760Ni-ΣUiNi)/Σ8760Ni = 0.9996

ASUI = 1- ASAI = 0.0004

EENS = ΣEENSi = 14.3 MWhr/yr

ECOST = ΣECOSTi = 78.865 kS/yr

AENS = ΣUiPi/ΣNi = 0.022 MWhr/customer.yr

IEAR = ECOST/EENS = 5.513 $/kWhr

Operation Technology, Inc. 22 ETAP PowerStation