VIJAYALAKSHMIiDINESH

2214101657

MASTERiOFiCOMPUTERiAPPLICATIONi(MCA)

THIRD SEMESTER

DCA7101

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

SET1i&iSETi2
 SET 1 & SET 2

Q1. Suppose a person throws a die. If he gets a 5 or 6, he tosses a coin three times and
notes the number of heads. If he gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, tosses a coin once and notes whether a
head or tail is obtained. If he obtained exactly one head; what is the probability that he
threw 5 or 6 with the die.
Answer
To solve this problem, we can use Bayes' theorem. Let's denote the events as follows:

A: Throwing a 5 or 6 with the die.

B: Obtaining exactly one head.

We want to find the probability of event A given event B, denoted as P(A|B). We can use
Bayes' theorem to calculate this probability:

P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)

Now let's calculate each term of the equation:

P(B|A): The probability of obtaining exactly one head given that the die shows 5 or 6. Since
in this case, the person tosses a coin three times, the probability of getting exactly one head is
given by the binomial distribution:

P(B|A) = C(3, 1) * (1/2)^1 * (1/2)^2 = 3/8

P(A): The probability of throwing a 5 or 6 with the die. Since a fair die has six equally likely
outcomes, each with a probability of 1/6:

P(A) = 2/6 = 1/3

P(B): The probability of obtaining exactly one head overall. This can happen in two ways:
either by throwing a 5 or 6 and getting exactly one head from three coin tosses, or by
throwing 1, 2, 3, or 4 and getting exactly one head from a single coin toss. So we can
calculate P(B) as:

P(B) = P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)

P(B|not A): The probability of obtaining exactly one head given that the die shows 1, 2, 3, or
4. Since in this case, the person tosses a coin once, the probability of getting exactly one head
is 1/2.

P(not A): The probability of not throwing a 5 or 6 with the die. This is equal to 1 - P(A),
which is 1 - 1/3 = 2/3.

P(B|not A) = 1/2

P(B) = P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)

= (3/8) * (1/3) + (1/2) * (2/3)
= 1/8 + 2/6
= 1/8 + 4/8
= 5/8

Now we can substitute these values back into Bayes' theorem to calculate P(A|B):

P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)

= ((3/8) * (1/3)) / (5/8)
= 1/8 / (5/8)
= 1/5

Therefore, the probability that the person threw a 5 or 6 with the die, given that they obtained
exactly one head, is 1/5.

Q2. A random variable has the following probability distribution

𝑿 𝟎 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟒 𝟓 𝟔 𝟕
𝑷[𝑿 𝟎 𝒂 𝟐𝒂 𝟐𝒂 𝟑𝒂 𝒂𝟐 𝟐𝒂𝟐 𝟕𝒂𝟐
= 𝒙] +𝒂
Find (i) the value of ‘𝒂’
𝟏. 𝟓 < 𝑿 < 𝟒. 𝟓
(𝒊𝒊)𝑷 [ ]
𝑿>𝟐
(iii) 𝑬(𝑿)
Answer
To find the value of 'a' and solve the other parts of the problem, we'll use the properties of a
probability distribution.

(i) The sum of all probabilities in a distribution must be equal to 1. So we can write the
equation:
∑P[X=x] = 0 + a + 2a + 2a + 3a + a^2 + 2a^2 + 7a^2 + a = 1

Simplifying the equation:

19a^2 + 7a = 1

To solve for 'a,' we need to find the values that satisfy this equation. However, it seems there
might be a mistake in the probability distribution you provided. The term "7a^2 + a" violates
the probability constraint since it can be greater than 1 when 'a' is large. Please double-check
the values in the probability distribution.

(ii) To calculate P[(1.5 < X < 4.5)/(X > 2)], we need to find the probability of the event (1.5 <
X < 4.5) given that (X > 2). This can be calculated using the conditional probability formula:

P[(1.5 < X < 4.5)/(X > 2)] = P(1.5 < X < 4.5 and X > 2) / P(X > 2)

To find P(1.5 < X < 4.5 and X > 2), we sum the probabilities for X = 3 and X = 4:

P(1.5 < X < 4.5 and X > 2) = P[X = 3] + P[X = 4] = 2a + 2a = 4a

To find P(X > 2), we sum the probabilities for X = 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7:

P(X > 2) = P[X = 3] + P[X = 4] + P[X = 5] + P[X = 6] + P[X = 7] = 2a + 2a + a^2 + 4a^2 +

7a^2 + a = 14a^2 + 5a

Therefore,

P[(1.5 < X < 4.5)/(X > 2)] = (4a) / (14a^2 + 5a)

(iii) To find the expected value E(X), we multiply each value of X by its respective
probability and sum them up:

E(X) = ∑(X * P[X=x])

E(X) = (0 * 0) + (1 * a) + (2 * 2a) + (3 * 2a) + (4 * 3a) + (5 * a^2) + (6 * 2a^2) + (7 * (7a^2

+ a))

E(X) = a + 4a + 6a + 12a + 5a^2 + 12a^2 + 49a^2 + 7a^2

E(X) = 82a^2 + 23a

Q3. The daily earning of a vendor for a period of 43 days are given below
 Daily earning 118- 127- 136- 145- 154- 163- 172-
(Rs.) 126 135 144 153 162 171 180
No. of days 3 8 9 12 5 4 2
Calculate Standard Deviation and coefficient of variation.
Answer

Q4. The probability that a bomb dropped from a plane will strike the target is 1/5. If 6
bombs are dropped, find the probability that-
(i) Exactly two will strike the target.
(ii) Atleast two will strike the target.

Answer
To calculate the probabilities, we can use the binomial probability formula. Let's denote the
event of a bomb striking the target as "success" and the event of a bomb not striking the
target as "failure." The probability of success, p, is 1/5, and the probability of failure, q, is 1 -
p, which is 4/5.
(i) Exactly two bombs will strike the target.
To calculate this probability, we use the binomial probability formula:
P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * q^(n-k)
where:
P(X = k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes.
C(n, k) is the number of combinations of n items taken k at a time, given by n! / (k! * (n -
k)!).
p is the probability of success.
q is the probability of failure.
n is the number of trials (in this case, the number of bombs dropped).
k is the number of successes we're interested in (exactly two bombs striking the target).
For this case, n = 6 and k = 2:
P(X = 2) = C(6, 2) * (1/5)^2 * (4/5)^(6-2)

Using the formula for combinations:

C(6, 2) = 6! / (2! * (6 - 2)!) = 6! / (2! * 4!) = (6 * 5) / (2 * 1) = 15

Now we can substitute these values into the probability formula:
P(X = 2) = 15 * (1/5)^2 * (4/5)^4
= 15 * (1/25) * (256/625)
= 0.96 / 25
= 0.0384
Therefore, the probability that exactly two bombs will strike the target is 0.0384.
Q.5 Compute the regression equation of Y on X and regression equation of X on Y on the
basis of the following information
X Y
Mean 40 45
Standard Deviation 10 9
The correlation coefficient between X and Y is 0.50.
Also estimate the value of Y for X = 48, using the appropriate regression equation.
Answer
To compute the regression equation of Y on X and the regression equation of X on Y, we'll
use the formulas:
For the regression equation of Y on X: Y = a + bX
For the regression equation of X on Y: X = c + dY

To find the values of a, b, c, and d, we'll use the given information: the means, standard
deviations, and correlation coefficient.

Mean of X (X̄) = 40 Mean of Y (Ȳ) = 45 Standard Deviation of X (σX) = 10 Standard

Deviation of Y (σY) = 9 Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.50

Step 1: Calculate the slope (b) for the regression equation of Y on X: b = r * (σY / σX) = 0.50
* (9 / 10) = 0.45

Step 2: Calculate the intercept (a) for the regression equation of Y on X: a = Ȳ - b * X̄ = 45 -

0.45 * 40 = 45 - 18 = 27

Therefore, the regression equation of Y on X is: Y = 27 + 0.45X

Step 3: Calculate the slope (d) for the regression equation of X on Y: d = r * (σX / σY) = 0.50
* (10 / 9) = 0.5556 (rounded to four decimal places)

Step 4: Calculate the intercept (c) for the regression equation of X on Y: c = X̄ - d * Ȳ = 40 -

0.5556 * 45 = 40 - 24.9998 = 15 (rounded to the nearest whole number)

Therefore, the regression equation of X on Y is: X = 15 + 0.5556Y

To estimate the value of Y for X = 48 using the regression equation of Y on X: Y = 27 + 0.45

* X = 27 + 0.45 * 48 = 27 + 21.6 = 48.6

Therefore, the estimated value of Y for X = 48 is approximately 48.6.

Q6. The following data relate to the prices and quantities of 4 commodities in the years
1982 and 1983. Construct the following index numbers of price for the year 1983 by using
1982 as base year.
(i) Laspeyre’s Index
(ii) Paasche’s Index
(iii) Fisher’s Index

Commodity 1982 1983

Price Quantity Price Quantity
A 5 100 6 150
B 4 80 5 100
 C 2.5 60 5 72
D 12 30 9 33
Answer
To construct the price index numbers using 1982 as the base year, we'll use the following
formulas for Laspeyre's Index, Paasche's Index, and Fisher's Index:

(i) Laspeyre's Index: Laspeyre's Index = (Σ(P₁Q₀) / Σ(P₀Q₀)) * 100

(ii) Paasche's Index: Paasche's Index = (Σ(P₁Q₁) / Σ(P₀Q₁)) * 100

(iii) Fisher's Index: Fisher's Index = √(Laspeyre's Index * Paasche's Index)

Where:
 P₀ and P₁ represent the prices in the base year (1982) and the current year (1983),
respectively.
 Q₀ and Q₁ represent the quantities in the base year and the current year, respectively.

Using the given data, let's calculate the index numbers:

Commodity Price (1982) Quantity (1982) Price (1983) Quantity (1983) A 5 100 6 150 B 4 80
5 100 C 2.5 60 5 72 D 12 30 9 33

(i) Laspeyre's Index: Laspeyre's Index = (Σ(P₁Q₀) / Σ(P₀Q₀)) * 100 = [(6 * 100) + (5 * 80) +
(5 * 60) + (9 * 30)] / [(5 * 100) + (4 * 80) + (2.5 * 60) + (12 * 30)] * 100 = (600 + 400 + 300
+ 270) / (500 + 320 + 150 + 360) * 100 = 1570 / 1330 * 100 = 117.79 (rounded to two
decimal places)
(ii) Paasche's Index: Paasche's Index = (Σ(P₁Q₁) / Σ(P₀Q₁)) * 100 = [(6 * 150) + (5 * 100) + (5
* 72) + (9 * 33)] / [(5 * 150) + (4 * 100) + (2.5 * 72) + (12 * 33)] * 100 = (900 + 500 + 360 +
297) / (750 + 400 + 180 + 396) * 100 = 2057 / 1726 * 100 = 119.17 (rounded to two decimal
places)

(iii) Fisher's Index: Fisher's Index = √(Laspeyre's Index * Paasche's Index) = √(117.79 *
119.17) = √14025.0683 = 118.47 (rounded to two decimal places)

Therefore, the index numbers of price for the year 1983 using 1982 as the base year are: (i)
Laspeyre's Index: 117.79 (ii) Paasche's Index: 119.17 (iii) Fisher's Index: 118.47

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