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Project Management The Managerial Process 5Th Edition Larson Test Bank Full Chapter PDF
Project Management The Managerial Process 5Th Edition Larson Test Bank Full Chapter PDF
Chapter 07
Managing Risk
2. The chances of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends to
A. Slowly rise
B. Drop sharply and then level out
C. Rise sharply and then level out
D. Remain about the same
E. Slowly drop
3. The cost impact of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends
to
A. Slowly rise
B. Drop sharply and then level out
C. Rise sharply and then level out
D. Remain about the same
E. Slowly drop
4. The attempt to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur
when a project is implemented is known as
A. Risk forecasting
B. Risk management
C. Contingency planning
D. Scenario analysis
E. Disaster protection
7-1
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
5. Which of the following is not one of the steps in the risk management process?
A. Risk response development
B. Risk assessment
C. Risk identification
D. Risk tracking
E. Risk response control
7-2
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
11. A list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project is termed a
risk
A. Risk profile
B. Questionnaire
C. Research
D. Query
E. Checklist
13. All of the following are included in the risk identification process except
A. Customers
B. Subcontractors
C. Competitors
D. Vendors
E. None of these are included
7-3
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
15. The easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks is _____ analysis.
A. Probability
B. Scenario
C. Payback
D. Risk/reward
E. Impact
16. A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project
that answers developed from:
A. When the event might occur in the project
B. Chances of the event occurring
C. Interaction with other parts of the project or with other projects
D. From previous, similar projects
E. Magnitude or severity of the event's impact
17. The risk management tool that is divided into three color-coded zones representing major,
moderate, and minor risks is the risk
A. Assessment form
B. Responsibility matrix
C. Scenario assessment
D. Impact assessment
E. Risk severity matrix
7-4
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
18. The risk assessment form contains all of the following except
A. Likelihood of the risk event occurring
B. Potential impact of the risk event
C. Who will detect the occurrence of the risk event.
D. Difficulty of detecting the occurrence of the risk event
E. When the risk event may occur
20. Which of the following is not one of the probability analysis tools?
A. Ratio/range analysis
B. Decision tree
C. PERT simulation
D. PERT
E. All of these are probability analysis tools
21. This risk assessment tool is a variation of the risk severity matrix that includes the ease of
detection for each of the identified risks.
A. PERT simulation
B. FMEA analysis
C. Ratio/range analysis
D. Probability analysis
E. Semi-quantitative analysis
7-5
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
22. Which of the following is not included in a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis?
A. Impact
B. Probability
C. Detection
D. Risk value
E. All of these are included
23. Which of the following is used to review activity and project risk?
A. NPV
B. S-curves
C. PERT
D. Decision trees
E. All of these can be used
24. Which of the following is not one of the potential responses to a specific risk event?
A. Mitigating
B. Retaining
C. Ignoring
D. Transferring
E. Sharing
7-6
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
26. The demolition of the Seattle Kingdome (Snapshot from Practice) is an example of which
of the following?
A. Mitigating
B. Retaining
C. Ignoring
D. Transferring
E. Sharing
27. The risk associated with one of the key members being stuck by lightning would most
likely be handled by which of the following?
A. Mitigating
B. Retaining
C. Ignoring
D. Transferring
E. Sharing
28. Funds that are for identified risks that have a low probability of occurring and that
decrease as the project progresses are called ______ reserves.
A. Management
B. Budget
C. Contingency
D. Padded
E. Just in case
7-7
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
30. Detailing all identified risks, including descriptions, category, and probability of
occurring, impact, responses, contingency plans, owners and current status is called:
A. Management reserves
B. Change control
C. Contingency reserves
D. Risk register
E. Risk profiles
31. Which of the following is identified to cover major unforeseen risks and, hence, are
applied to the total project?
A. Budget reserves
B. Management reserves
C. Time buffers
D. Both B and C are correct
E. A, B, and C are all correct
32. Change management systems are designed to accomplish all of the following except:
A. Track all changes that are to be implemented
B. Review, evaluates, and approve/disapprove proposed changes formally
C. Identify expected effects of proposed changes on schedule and budget
D. Reflect scope changes in baseline and performance measures
E. All of the above are correct
33. The ________ impact of a risk event in a project is less if the event occurs earlier rather
than later.
________________________________________
34. The likelihood of a risk event occurring ________ as a project goes through its life cycle.
________________________________________
7-8
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
36. Risk events such as inflation, market acceptance, and government regulations are referred
to as ________.
________________________________________
37. A ________ is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project.
________________________________________
38. The easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks is ________.
________________________________________
39. The ________ form identifies each risk event, the likelihood of it occurring, the potential
impact, when it may occur, and the degree of difficulty in detecting it.
________________________________________
40. The ________ matrix is divided into red, yellow, and green zones representing major,
moderate, and minor risks.
________________________________________
41. The vertical scale on the Risk Severity Matrix measures the _________ of a potential risk
event.
________________________________________
42. The horizontal scale on the Risk Severity Matrix measures the _________ of a potential
risk event.
________________________________________
7-9
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
43. In __________ the Risk Severity Matrix is extended by including the ease of detecting a
risk event occurring.
________________________________________
44. In a ________, three different estimates of activity times are used to statistically predict
the time an activity will take to complete.
________________________________________
45. The "Snapshot from Practice" case where Ellipsus Systems developed parallel prototype
systems (WAP and JAVA) is an example of _________ a risk.
________________________________________
46. Testing a new project on a smaller isolated area prior to installing it for the entire
organization is an example of ________ a risk.
________________________________________
47. Performance bonds, warranties, and insurance are examples of ________ a risk.
________________________________________
48. When the entertainment industry formed a consortium to define a common operating
format for DVD it was ________ the risk.
________________________________________
49. If a risk event is very unlikely to occur the project owner would probably ________ the
risk.
________________________________________
7-10
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
51. ________ reserves are identified for specific work packages and cover risks that have a
low probability of occurring.
________________________________________
52. ________ reserves are controlled by the project manager and used to cover major
unforeseen risks to the entire project.
________________________________________
53. A ____________ is an alternative that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event
becomes a reality.
________________________________________
54. A ____________ is useful for summarizing how the project team plans to manage risks
that have been identified.
________________________________________
55. The probability that a risk event will occur is higher during the initial stages of a project.
True False
56. Due to the impact over a long period of time, risk events that occur in the early stages of a
project will have a greater cost impact than those that occur in later stages.
True False
7-11
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
57. During risk identification the smaller risks should be identified first because they will
naturally lead to identifying the larger risks.
True False
58. One common mistake that is made early on in the risk identification process is to focus on
consequences and not on the events that could produce consequences.
True False
59. Risks such as inflation and monetary exchange rates are not usually included in a project's
risk assessment.
True False
60. The first step in the risk management process is Risk Assessment.
Refer to Figure 7.2
True False
61. A risk profile is a list of questions that have been developed and refined from previous,
similar projects.
True False
62. The risk identification process should be limited to just the core project team.
True False
63. Since the goal is to find problems before they happen, the project manager should
encourage critical thinking when it comes to risk identification.
True False
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
64. The Risk Severity Matrix rates risk events based upon schedule and cost.
Refer to Figure 7.7
True False
65. In a Risk Severity Matrix a green zone risk is considered inconsequential and ignored
unless their status changes.
True False
66. The quality and credibility of the risk analysis process requires that different levels of risk
probabilities and impacts be defined.
True False
68. The FMEA method calculates a risk value by assigning ease of detection ratings to the key
risk elements.
True False
69. Performance bonds, warranties, and guarantees are financial instruments used to share
risk.
True False
70. Fixed price contracts are an example of transferring risk from an owner to a contractor.
True False
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
71. Scheduling outdoor work in the summer, investing in up front safety training, and
choosing high quality materials are examples of retaining a risk.
True False
72. Budget reserves are setup to cover identified risks associated with specific segments of a
project while management reserves are set up to cover unidentified risks associated with the
total project.
True False
73. Change management systems involve reporting, controlling, and recording changes to the
project baseline.
True False
74. Project managers need to establish an environment in which participants feel comfortable
raising concerns and admitting mistakes.
True False
76. Describe the relationship between the likelihood of a risk event occurring and the cost of
fixing the risk event as a project proceeds through its life cycle.
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
77. Identify and briefly describe the four steps in risk management.
79. What is a risk profile and what benefits does it provide to risk management?
80. Identify at least six items that may be included on a Risk Profile.
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
83. Identify and briefly describe the five ways to respond to identified risks.
84. What is the difference between budget reserves and management reserves?
7-16
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
85. What is Change Control Management and what function does it perform?
86. Identify and briefly describe the parts of a Risk Response Matrix and explain how one
would be used.
7-17
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
In the context of projects, risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a
positive or negative effect on project objectives.
2. The chances of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends to
A. Slowly rise
B. Drop sharply and then level out
C. Rise sharply and then level out
D. Remain about the same
E. Slowly drop
7-18
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
3. The cost impact of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends
to
A. Slowly rise
B. Drop sharply and then level out
C. Rise sharply and then level out
D. Remain about the same
E. Slowly drop
The cost impact of a risk event in the project is less if the event occurs earlier rather than later.
4. The attempt to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur
when a project is implemented is known as
A. Risk forecasting
B. Risk management
C. Contingency planning
D. Scenario analysis
E. Disaster protection
Risk management attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots
that may occur when the project is implemented.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Risk Management Process
Level: Easy
7-19
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
5. Which of the following is not one of the steps in the risk management process?
A. Risk response development
B. Risk assessment
C. Risk identification
D. Risk tracking
E. Risk response control
7-20
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
One common mistake that is made early in the risk identification process is to focus on
objectives and not on the events that could produce consequences.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Easy
The focus at the beginning should be on risks that can affect the whole project as opposed to a
specific section of the project or network.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Medium
7-21
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
The cost of mismanaged risk control early on in the project is magnified by the ill-fated 1999
NASA Mars Climate Orbiter.
There are sources external to the organization, such as inflation, market acceptance, exchange
rates, and government regulations. In practice, these risk events are often referred to as
"threats" to differentiate them from those that are not within the project manager's or team's
responsibility area.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Synthesis
Learning Objective: Risk Management Process
Level: Difficult
7-22
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
11. A list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project is termed a
risk
A. Risk profile
B. Questionnaire
C. Research
D. Query
E. Checklist
A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project.
Risk profiles recognize the unique strengths and weaknesses of the firm; also risk profiles
address both technical and management risks.
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
13. All of the following are included in the risk identification process except
A. Customers
B. Subcontractors
C. Competitors
D. Vendors
E. None of these are included
The risk identification process should not be limited to just the core team. Input from
customers, sponsors, subcontractors, vendors, and other stakeholders should be solicited.
While a "can do" attitude is essential during implementation, project managers have to
encourage critical thinking when it comes to risk identification.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Medium
7-24
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
15. The easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks is _____ analysis.
A. Probability
B. Scenario
C. Payback
D. Risk/reward
E. Impact
Scenario analysis is the easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Easy
16. A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project
that answers developed from:
A. When the event might occur in the project
B. Chances of the event occurring
C. Interaction with other parts of the project or with other projects
D. From previous, similar projects
E. Magnitude or severity of the event's impact
7-25
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
17. The risk management tool that is divided into three color-coded zones representing major,
moderate, and minor risks is the risk
A. Assessment form
B. Responsibility matrix
C. Scenario assessment
D. Impact assessment
E. Risk severity matrix
The risk severity matrix provides a basis for prioritizing which risks to address. Red zone
risks receive first priority followed by yellow zone risks. Green zone risks are typically
considered inconsequential and ignored unless their status changes.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Medium
18. The risk assessment form contains all of the following except
A. Likelihood of the risk event occurring
B. Potential impact of the risk event
C. Who will detect the occurrence of the risk event.
D. Difficulty of detecting the occurrence of the risk event
E. When the risk event may occur
7-26
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
The risk matrix presented in Figure 7.7 on page 218 consists of a 5 x 5 array of elements with
each element representing a different set of impact and likelihood values.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Medium
20. Which of the following is not one of the probability analysis tools?
A. Ratio/range analysis
B. Decision tree
C. PERT simulation
D. PERT
E. All of these are probability analysis tools
Decision trees have been used to assess alternative courses of action using expected values
PERT (program evaluation and review technique) and PERT simulation can be used to review
activity and project risk.
7-27
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
21. This risk assessment tool is a variation of the risk severity matrix that includes the ease of
detection for each of the identified risks.
A. PERT simulation
B. FMEA analysis
C. Ratio/range analysis
D. Probability analysis
E. Semi-quantitative analysis
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) extends the risk severity matrix by including ease
of detection in the equation: Impact x Probability x Detection = Risk Value.
22. Which of the following is not included in a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis?
A. Impact
B. Probability
C. Detection
D. Risk value
E. All of these are included
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) extends the risk severity matrix by including ease
of detection in the equation: Impact x Probability x Detection = Risk Value.
7-28
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
23. Which of the following is used to review activity and project risk?
A. NPV
B. S-curves
C. PERT
D. Decision trees
E. All of these can be used
PERT (program evaluation and review technique) and PERT simulation can be used to review
activity and project risk.
24. Which of the following is not one of the potential responses to a specific risk event?
A. Mitigating
B. Retaining
C. Ignoring
D. Transferring
E. Sharing
When a risk event is identified and assessed, a decision must be made concerning which
response is appropriate for the specific event. Responses to risk can be classified as
mitigating, avoiding, transferring, sharing, or retaining.
7-29
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Contingency Planning
Level: Medium
26. The demolition of the Seattle Kingdome (Snapshot from Practice) is an example of which
of the following?
A. Mitigating
B. Retaining
C. Ignoring
D. Transferring
E. Sharing
Reducing risk is usually the first alternative considered. There are basically two strategies for
mitigating risk: (1) reduce the likelihood that the event will occur and/ or (2) reduce the
impact that the adverse event would have on the project. Most risk teams focus first on
reducing the likelihood of risk events since, if successful, this may eliminate the need to
consider the potentially costly second strategy. The Dome to Dust Snapshot from Practice
details the steps Controlled Demolition took to minimize damage when they imploded the
Seattle Kingdome.
7-30
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
27. The risk associated with one of the key members being stuck by lightning would most
likely be handled by which of the following?
A. Mitigating
B. Retaining
C. Ignoring
D. Transferring
E. Sharing
The risk of a project manager being struck by lightning at a work site would have major
negative impact on the project, but the likelihood is so low it is not worthy of consideration.
Conversely, people do change jobs, so an event like the loss of key project personnel would
have not only an adverse impact but also a high likelihood of occurring in some organizations.
If so, then it would be wise for that organization to be proactive and mitigate this risk by
developing incentive schemes for retaining specialists and/or engaging in cross-training to
reduce the impact of turnover.
28. Funds that are for identified risks that have a low probability of occurring and that
decrease as the project progresses are called ______ reserves.
A. Management
B. Budget
C. Contingency
D. Padded
E. Just in case
Budget reserves are set up to cover identified risks; these reserves are those allocated to
specific segments or deliverables of the project.
7-31
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
Technical risks are problematic; they can often be the kind that cause the project to be shut
down.
30. Detailing all identified risks, including descriptions, category, and probability of
occurring, impact, responses, contingency plans, owners and current status is called:
A. Management reserves
B. Change control
C. Contingency reserves
D. Risk register
E. Risk profiles
A risk register details all identified risks, including descriptions, category, and probability of
occurring, impact, responses, contingency plans, owners and current status.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 4: Risk Response Control
Level: Medium
7-32
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
31. Which of the following is identified to cover major unforeseen risks and, hence, are
applied to the total project?
A. Budget reserves
B. Management reserves
C. Time buffers
D. Both B and C are correct
E. A, B, and C are all correct
Management reserve funds are needed to cover major unforeseen risks and, hence, are applied
to the total project.
32. Change management systems are designed to accomplish all of the following except:
A. Track all changes that are to be implemented
B. Review, evaluates, and approve/disapprove proposed changes formally
C. Identify expected effects of proposed changes on schedule and budget
D. Reflect scope changes in baseline and performance measures
E. All of the above are correct
7-33
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
33. The ________ impact of a risk event in a project is less if the event occurs earlier rather
than later.
cost
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Risk Management Process
Level: Easy
34. The likelihood of a risk event occurring ________ as a project goes through its life cycle.
decreases
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Risk Management Process
Level: Easy
7-34
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
36. Risk events such as inflation, market acceptance, and government regulations are referred
to as ________.
threats
The sources of project risks are unlimited. There are sources external to the organization, such
as inflation, market acceptance, exchange rates, and government regulations. In practice, these
risk events are often referred to as "threats" to differentiate them from those that are not
within the project manager's or team's responsibility area.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Risk Management Process
Level: Medium
37. A ________ is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project.
risk profile
A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Medium
38. The easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks is ________.
scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is the easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks.
7-35
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
39. The ________ form identifies each risk event, the likelihood of it occurring, the potential
impact, when it may occur, and the degree of difficulty in detecting it.
risk assessment
40. The ________ matrix is divided into red, yellow, and green zones representing major,
moderate, and minor risks.
risk severity
The risk severity matrix provides a basis for prioritizing which risks to address. Red zone
risks receive first priority followed by yellow zone risks. Green zone risks are typically
considered inconsequential and ignored unless their status changes.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Medium
41. The vertical scale on the Risk Severity Matrix measures the _________ of a potential risk
event.
likelihood
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Difficult
7-36
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
42. The horizontal scale on the Risk Severity Matrix measures the _________ of a potential
risk event.
impact
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Synthesis
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Difficult
43. In __________ the Risk Severity Matrix is extended by including the ease of detecting a
risk event occurring.
Failure Mote and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) extends the risk severity matrix by including ease
of detection in the equation: Impact x Probability x Detection = Risk Value.
44. In a ________, three different estimates of activity times are used to statistically predict
the time an activity will take to complete.
probability analysis
There are many statistical techniques available to the project manager that can assist in
assessing project risk. Decision trees have been used to assess alternative courses of action
using expected values. Statistical variations of net present value (NPV) have been used to
assess cash flow risks in projects. Correlations between past projects' cash flow and S-curves
(cumulative project cost curve—baseline—over the life of the project) have been used to
assess cash flow risks.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 3: Risk Response Development
Level: Medium
7-37
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
45. The "Snapshot from Practice" case where Ellipsus Systems developed parallel prototype
systems (WAP and JAVA) is an example of _________ a risk.
avoiding
Risk avoidance is changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition. Although it is
impossible to eliminate all risk events, some specific risks may be avoided before you launch
the project. Rikard Kjellberg's solution was to have projects in his company's portfolio based
on both standards. Ellipsus built early prototypes of both systems and took them to a trade
show, with both systems sitting side by side. "We knew within an hour which way to go,"
says Douglas Davies, the COO. Ellipsus began securing million dollar contracts to supply its
Java-based system to leading U.S. operators.
46. Testing a new project on a smaller isolated area prior to installing it for the entire
organization is an example of ________ a risk.
mitigating
Reducing risk is usually the first alternative considered. There are basically two strategies for
mitigating risk: (1) reduce the likelihood that the event will occur and/ or (2) reduce the
impact that the adverse event would have on the project. Most risk teams focus first on
reducing the likelihood of risk events since, if successful, this may eliminate the need to
consider the potentially costly second strategy.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 3: Risk Response Development
Level: Medium
7-38
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
47. Performance bonds, warranties, and insurance are examples of ________ a risk.
transferring
Passing risk to another party is common; this transfer does not change risk. Passing risk to
another party almost always results in paying a premium for this exemption. Fixed-price
contracts are the classic example of transferring risk from an owner to a contractor.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 3: Risk Response Development
Level: Medium
48. When the entertainment industry formed a consortium to define a common operating
format for DVD it was ________ the risk.
sharing
This strategy involves allocating some or all of the ownership of an opportunity to another
party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Examples
include establishing continuous improvement incentives for external contractors or joint
ventures.
49. If a risk event is very unlikely to occur the project owner would probably ________ the
risk.
retain
Some risks are so large it is not feasible to consider transferring or reducing the event (e.g., an
earthquake or flood). The project owner assumes the risk because the chance of such an event
occurring is slim.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 3: Risk Response Development
Level: Medium
7-39
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Contingency Planning
Level: Medium
51. ________ reserves are identified for specific work packages and cover risks that have a
low probability of occurring.
Budget
These reserves are identified for specific work packages or segments of a project found in the
baseline budget or work breakdown structure. For example, a reserve amount might be added
to "computer coding" to cover the risk of "testing" showing a coding problem. The reserve
amount is determined by costing out the accepted contingency or recovery plan. The budget
reserve should be communicated to the project team.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Contingency Funding and Time Buffers
Level: Medium
52. ________ reserves are controlled by the project manager and used to cover major
unforeseen risks to the entire project.
Management
These reserve funds are needed to cover major unforeseen risks and, hence, are applied to the
total project. For example, a major scope change may appear necessary midway in the project.
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
53. A ____________ is an alternative that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event
becomes a reality.
contingency plan
A contingency plan is an alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event
becomes a reality.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Contingency Planning
Level: Easy
54. A ____________ is useful for summarizing how the project team plans to manage risks
that have been identified.
Risk Response Matrix
Risk response matrices such as the one shown in Figure 7.8 on page 225 are useful for
summarizing how the project team plans to manage risks that have been identified.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Contingency Planning
Level: Easy
55. The probability that a risk event will occur is higher during the initial stages of a project.
TRUE
The chances of a risk event occurring (e.g., an error in time estimates, cost estimates, or
design technology) are greatest in the concept, planning, and start-up phases of the project.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Risk Management Process
Level: Easy
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Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
56. Due to the impact over a long period of time, risk events that occur in the early stages of a
project will have a greater cost impact than those that occur in later stages.
FALSE
The cost impact of a risk event in the project is less if the event occurs earlier rather than later.
57. During risk identification the smaller risks should be identified first because they will
naturally lead to identifying the larger risks.
FALSE
The focus at the beginning should be on risks that can affect the whole project as opposed to a
specific section of the project or network.
58. One common mistake that is made early on in the risk identification process is to focus on
consequences and not on the events that could produce consequences.
TRUE
One common mistake that is made early in the risk identification process is to focus on
objectives and not on the events that could produce consequences.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Medium
7-42
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
59. Risks such as inflation and monetary exchange rates are not usually included in a project's
risk assessment.
TRUE
The sources of project risks are unlimited. There are sources external to the organization, such
as inflation, market acceptance, exchange rates, and government regulations. In practice, these
risk events are often referred to as "threats" to differentiate them from those that are not
within the project manager's or team's responsibility area.
60. The first step in the risk management process is Risk Assessment.
Refer to Figure 7.2
FALSE
See Figure 7.2 on Page 213. The first step is Risk Identification. Risk Assessment is the
second step.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Easy
61. A risk profile is a list of questions that have been developed and refined from previous,
similar projects.
TRUE
A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project.
These questions have been developed and refined from previous, similar projects.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Medium
7-43
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
62. The risk identification process should be limited to just the core project team.
FALSE
The risk identification process should not be limited to just the core team. Input from
customers, sponsors, subcontractors, vendors, and other stakeholders should be solicited.
63. Since the goal is to find problems before they happen, the project manager should
encourage critical thinking when it comes to risk identification.
TRUE
One of the keys to success in risk identification is attitude. While a "can do" attitude is
essential during implementation, project managers have to encourage critical thinking when it
comes to risk identification. The goal is to find potential problems before they happen.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Comprehension
Learning Objective: Step 1: Risk Identification
Level: Medium
64. The Risk Severity Matrix rates risk events based upon schedule and cost.
Refer to Figure 7.7
FALSE
See Figure 7.7 on Page 218. The Risk Severity Matrix events are based on likelihood and
impact.
7-44
Chapter 07 - Managing Risk
65. In a Risk Severity Matrix a green zone risk is considered inconsequential and ignored
unless their status changes.
TRUE
The risk severity matrix Green zone risks are typically considered inconsequential and
ignored unless their status changes.
66. The quality and credibility of the risk analysis process requires that different levels of risk
probabilities and impacts be defined.
TRUE
The quality and credibility of the risk analysis process requires that different levels of risk
probabilities and impacts be defined.
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 2: Risk Assessment
Level: Easy
AACSB: Analytic
Bloom's: Knowledge
Learning Objective: Step 3: Risk Response Development
Level: Medium
7-45
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So I found no difficulty in arranging with Mr. Holley to take a trip
with me, and visit some of my engines in operation, for the purpose
of forming a judgment as to its suitability for the use of his clients.
This he agreed to do as soon as he had finished the report of his trip,
on which he was then engaged. Our inspection took in the engines
running in New York and Brooklyn and vicinity and in New England,
finishing with the engine at the Arlington Mills in Lawrence. They
were all found to be on their best behavior, but Mr. Holley told me
that the engine at Lawrence, which was running there at its intended
speed of 150 revolutions per minute, impressed him more than all
the rest put together; not that it was doing any better, for they all ran
equally well, but solely because it was larger. It made him awake to
the great possibilities of the engine.
On his return Mr. Holley prepared a report on the performance of
the engine, and cordially endorsed it as sure of ultimate general
adoption. But he found capitalists to be absolutely dead. Not even
his great influence could awaken in them the least interest. The time
for the promoter had not yet come. And still my success in winning
Mr. Holley’s support proved to be vital to my subsequent progress.
As a last possible resort I finally thought of Mr. Phillips of Newark.
The firm of Hewes & Phillips had become dissolved by the death of
Mr. Hewes, and so, by purchase of Mr. Hewes’ interest from his
heirs, Mr. Phillips was the sole proprietor of the largest engineering
works in New Jersey. That concern had some time before the death
of Mr. Hewes given up the manufacture of steam-engines, a style
made by them having proved unsuccessful, and confined
themselves to making machine tools. In this line their business was
exceedingly dull, being disastrously affected by the depressed and
stagnant condition of the times.
I found Mr. Phillips ready to listen to me. He said that what he
knew about the engine was favorable, although he had not heard of
it for the last two or three years, but he was willing to consider a
proposition to take up its manufacture. I told him frankly that I had no
proposition of that kind to make. I wished to get the manufacture of
the engine revived, but to retain the business in my own hands, to
carry it on myself in my own name, with the view of gaining for the
engine a reputation that would enable me to command the capital
necessary to establish its manufacture in works that I had long
before planned for that purpose, and in which I could devote myself
to the development and building up of the business; that I hoped to
be able to reach this point in the course of two or three years, when
probably the anticipated financial revival would fill his works with
business in his own line of toolmaking.
He said that my proposal was entirely inadmissible, that he could
not permit any independent business to be carried on in his
establishment, and stated firmly the impossibility of any arrangement
of the kind I suggested, which would be something quite unheard of.
I stood firmly on my own position, but was obliged to leave him
without any sign of yielding on his part. The negotiation was,
however, renewed, exactly how I cannot now recall, but it ended in
my carrying my point. We finally concluded a bargain, in which I held
onto the business, but, of course, had to insure to him pretty much
all the profits. This I did not mind, my object was to obtain a position,
which it will be seen I fully accomplished, but did not know what to
do with it. I was conscious that I could never have made this
arrangement but for the extreme stagnation of the times; but was not
aware of an additional reason which impelled Mr. Phillips to agree to
my terms, when he found he could not do any better. What this
reason was will appear pretty soon.
The arrangement was to go into effect as soon as I got an order.
This was my next job. I learned that Mr. Peters, a manufacturer of
high-grade knit fabrics in Newark, all which, by the way, were sold by
him to importers in New York, was carrying on also a manufacture of
light oilcloths in Newark in temporary quarters, and was building a
large structure for this purpose in East Newark, the building now and
for many years past occupied by the Edison lamp manufactory, and
was in the market for an engine. I called on Mr. Peters, and got from
him the privilege of submitting an estimate for this engine. For this
purpose I went to his then present works, and measured the amount
of power he was using, and found that one of my 8×16 engines
would give him that power with the additional amount he wished to
provide for.
On calling with my estimate early one morning, I found Mr. Peters
ready to bow me out. He told me that he had been informed that the
high-speed engines had proved a failure, and the manufacture of
them had been abandoned three or four years ago. I said to him,
“Mr. Peters, I would like to make you a proposition.” He replied that
he would hear it.
I then said, “Your engineer, Mr. Green, I suppose never saw a
high-speed engine, but he strikes me as a fair-minded, cool-headed
man. I have three engines made by me in Harlem, and which have
been running from four to six years, two in New York and one at the
J. L. Mott Iron Works at Mott Haven. These can all be visited in one
trip. I propose that you send Mr. Green to see them in operation, and
talk with the engineers and owners and learn all about them, and
that you suspend your decision until you get his report.” “That is a
fair offer,” said he. “I will send him to-day.” I called again the next
day, and found Mr. Peters ready to throw the order into my hands.
Mr. Green told me afterwards what his impressions were. In the most
cool manner, entirely free from any excitement, he said: “My only
wonder is that everybody does not use this engine and that all
builders don’t make it. I got the same report everywhere. Would not
have anything else. Costs less money, occupies less space, burns
less coal, needs less attention, never cost a cent for repairs, never
anything the matter, never varies its speed.”
And so I began business in Mr. Phillips’ shop, where I continued
for four years, the most delightful period in my active life. I had Mr.
Goodfellow in his old place as my foreman, and three or four of my
best men back again at the work they loved. Everything went
smoothly and harmoniously, and the business grew steadily until the
orders thrust upon me became larger than I could have filled if I had
had the whole works to myself. In re-introducing the engine to the
public, I determined to change its name. I had been asked
occasionally what I had to do with the Allen engine. It struck me that
I had a good deal to do with it. Starting from Mr. Allen’s single
eccentric link motion, and four-opening equilibrium valve and my
own governor, I had, with the help which I have been happy to
acknowledge, created the high-speed engine, had solved every
problem, theoretical and practical, which it involved, and designed
every part of it. So I felt it to be proper that it should thereafter be
known as the Porter-Allen engine.
The following incident illustrates the ease with which everything
down to the smallest detail may unconsciously be prepared to insure
a disaster at some time.
Mr. Peters’ engine-room was a long, narrow room on one side of
the boiler-room, from which was the only entrance to it directly
opposite the guide-bars of the engine. The door opened inward, and
the latch was not very secure. They burned soft coal, which was
wheeled in on an elevated plank and dumped into a heap in front of
the furnace.
One day, about a year after the engine was put in, there was a
great wind blowing. A gust of unusual force blew the engine-room
door open at the instant when a barrowful of coal was being
dumped, and carried a cloud of its dust over the guide-bars. The
engine was soon brought to a standstill. All the faces of cross-head
and guide-bars were deeply scored. It was found, however, that
when these were cleaned up and scraped over to remove all
projections that they ran as well as ever, the grooves proving good
oil distributors, but they were not so pretty to look at.
One day, two or three weeks after we commenced work on this
engine, Mr. Phillips’ bookkeeper came to me and said: “Mr. Peters’
engine is contracted to be running on the first of May, is it not?”
“Yes.” “Do you think it will be ready?” I replied that the work was in a
good state of forwardness, and I thought most likely it would be
running before that time. I should say that was a size for which I had
made the revised drawings already, and the old cylinder pattern had
been readily altered to the new style. “Well,” said he, “Mr. Phillips is a
little short to-day, and he would be much obliged if you would give
him your note for a thousand dollars to come due, say, the fifteenth
of May.” So I gave him the note, the engine was ready on time,
accepted and paid for, and the note met at maturity.
This was the beginning of a uniform process, which continued for
four years. It was disclosed that Mr. Phillips’ financial position was
the same as my own, neither of us had a cent of money. The way we
managed was this. I always afterwards required payments in
instalments, one quarter with the order, one quarter when the engine
was ready for shipment, and the balance when running satisfactorily.
Thus with my notes we got along famously. My orders were always
from first-class parties, engines always ready on time, always gave
satisfaction, and promptly paid for. I had many thousands in notes
out all the time, and never had to renew a note. Mr. James Moore of
Philadelphia, the celebrated builder of rolling mill machinery, once
long after remarked to me, “I keep my bank account in the shop.” It
occurred to me that I had always done the same thing.
Directly after we got running I received a letter from William R.
Jones, superintendent of the Edgar Thompson Steel Company,
running a rail mill recently started at Braddocks by Carnegie
Brothers, saying that they were in need of an engine to drive a
circular saw at a very high rate of speed to cut off steel rails cold.
They had been recommended by Mr. Holley to get one of mine, and
if I could furnish a suitable engine immediately he would order it.
Fortunately I could. While I was building engines in Harlem, the city
of Washington, D. C., went into the system of wooden pavements,
and the contractor obtained an engine from me for sawing up the
blocks. About the very time I received Mr. Jones’ letter I had learned
that the wooden pavement system was being abandoned in
Washington for asphalt and the sawing-mill was closed. I at once
wrote to the contractor making him an offer for the engine. I received
by return mail a reply accepting my offer, and adding most
complimentary words concerning the engine. These I remember
closed by saying that his admiration of it was such that if he were
able he would put the engine in a glass case and keep it there as
long as he lived.
The engine proved just right for Mr. Jones’ use. I went myself to
Braddocks to see it started. All were much interested in the governor
action, I as much as any one, for I had never before seen this
particular application of it. In sawing through the head and web and
bottom flange of the rail, the width of section being cut varied
continually, and the gentle rising and falling of the counterpoise,
adjusting the power to the resistance, while the engine kept, so far
as the eye could detect, a uniform motion, had about it a continual
fascination. The success of this engine brought me several orders
for governors, the most important of which was one from Mr. Jones
himself for governors and throttle valves for his blooming mill and
rail-mill engines. I got up for him balanced piston valves which
operated perfectly. In iron valves and seats of this character it had
been found, where the steam contained primed water, that their
edges wore rounded, and their action in regulating the motion
became less and less satisfactory. I knew that these boilers primed
badly, and avoided this defect by setting brass rings in the edges.
The following illustrations show this regulating valve which I
designed and made in two sizes.
The brass liner for the lower seat was passed through the upper
seat by being made thinner than the upper liner. Those for the valve
were made ¹⁄₈ inch too long, and guttered in the lower edge. They
were then driven down by a set and sledge on an anvil. By going
around them three times the lower edges were spread out to fill the
chamfer, and the flanges brought down to their seats. Those for the
lower valve were put in in halves.
William R. Jones
CHAPTER XXIII