Fuel scarcity and insecurity in Nigeria and how it’s affecting the 2023 feb election

campaigns

Fuel scarcity

Voter resentment is growing as Nigeria prepares to conduct presidential and legislative

elections on February 25. Nigeria produces the most oil in Africa. The current fuel

scarcity provide a potent illustration of the several economic problems that have

plagued Nigeria for years. Since December 2022, Nigerians have been dealing with a

severe fuel shortage, which has resulted in lengthy lines at gas stations and some that

charge more than the authorized pump price. The mobility of electoral staff and supplies

on election days may be impacted by the ongoing fuel crisis.

Election administration in Nigeria has long been beset by logistical issues, which often

force the postponement of polls. Only hours before Nigerians were due to cast their

ballots in the 2019 presidential and national assembly elections, INEC decided to

postpone them. The electoral authority attributed the delay to "logistics and operational

difficulties." Similar to today, electioneering campaign have suffered a heavy setback

due to logistics issues occasioned by fuel scarcity in Nigeria states..

Insecurity and Its Effect in 2023 Election Campaign

The issue of insecurity is still at the forefront of discussions both within and outside of the

country. The international community is very concerned about Nigeria because of its crucial

position in the West African sub region and on the African continent. Local stakeholders are very
concerned about the complex security situation that is affecting how the seventh general election

since Nigeria's return to civil rule is conducted.

However, violence associated with elections in Nigeria is a common occurrence that is made

worse by specific security concerns that raise the risk of violence during elections. For example,

the 2011 post-election violence, which occurred mostly in Northern Nigeria, was rendered worse

by the state's culture of impunity for religious violence and its history of sectarian warfare

between Christians and Muslims (Osimen Christopher et al, 2022).

Nigeria has the possibility of seeing further election-related violence as the campaign for the

2023 elections comes to a close end, especially considering how severe and pervasive the

security concerns have become this time. The Southeastern region of Nigeria was one of the

areas that was mostly spared from major electoral violence in prior election cycles. Today,

everything is different as insecurity keeps on rising especially burning of INEC offices across the

regions. Since 2020, there have been more incidents involving the security forces, including

assaults on police stations, prisons, courts, and the headquarters of Nigeria's independent

electoral commission. This battle is being led by the separatist Indigenous People of Biafra

(IPOB), which wants to break away from the Nigerian State, and its militant arm, the Eastern

Security Network (ESN). Security personnel are accused of killing more than 100 persons in

only the first four months of 2020, while 21 police officers were killed in the first three months

of the same year. The situation is only made worse by allegations of human rights violations by

Nigerian security personnel and the over militarization of the issue by the government. Even

worse, the separatist organization IPOB, with roots in southeast Nigeria, has promised to mostly

boycott the 2021 elections for governor of Anambra State. In the end, the group decided against
enforcing the boycott right away and issued a statement to make it quite obvious that they had

never intended to.

Another insecurity challenges facing the success of 2023 election is the Bandits. In Nigeria,

bandit hotspots include Zamfara, Katsina, Kebbi, Kaduna, Sokoto, Nasarawa, and Niger. Sadly,

these at first disorganized criminal gangs which have developed into a network eager to impose

the deadly ideologies of extremist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa

(ISWAP), which have threatened Nigeria's elections since 2011. They also shot down an Air

Force fighter jet and attacked a passenger train (Premium Times, 2022). These gangs have

recently been accused of kidnapping kids and other victims while demanding substantial

amounts of money from their families. As the election in 2023 approaches, it is particularly

worrisome to consider the risk of electoral violence or vote blocking in places where opposition

leaders still maintain influence.

The South-South region of Nigeria became less of a hotbed for criminal insurgency in 2016 as a

result of the damaging operations of the Niger Delta Avengers. Tragically, however, violent

youth-led groups known as cults have persisted in number and provide a brand-new threat

throughout its six states. In order to assert their dominance in a particular region before elections,

cult organizations may escalate their violence. In order to "deliver" the elections there—a term

used to describe situations in which the use of force is employed to favor a certain candidate or

his party at the polls—they may use this authority as leverage in negotiations with political

parties. Political confrontations have continued because rival politicians help opposing cult

groups obtain an advantage over rivals. As a result, rivalry among cult groups has increased, as

have power struggles. Given their lengthy existence, the tumultuous political environment in
Nigeria, and other factors, the elections in 2023 will face serious risks, just as they did in the

elections in 2015 and 2019.

There is Lagos, the largest city and former capital of Nigeria. Cult groups, particularly the One

Million Boys and Awawa gangs, turned to blatant attacks on Lagos residents during the

pandemic in 2020. According to reports (Punch, 2022), these organizations were openly active,

which led locals to form vigilante organizations in response to the Nigerian police force's

consistent rejection of their requests for assistance. Cults have terrorized the South-West states

and been used as a cover for electoral violence, much as the South-South.

In Nigeria, election-related violence seldom occurs in a vacuum; rather, it is encouraged by a

system that encourages violence, which is further reinforced by a security force that is

overburdened and ineffective, an atmosphere of impunity, and a political system that encourages

zero-sum conduct. Due to this intricate framework, violent organizations continue to expand

across Nigeria and serve as tools in acrimonious political conflicts. As 2023 approaches, the

possibility of a violent election cycle in Nigeria is rising. This election is more important than

previous elections because of current security concerns which is more daring in recent time.

This is even more important for stability since serious security challenges will arise regardless of

the outcome of the elections next year. Only a few of these difficulties include the growth of

violent armed groups, a security apparatus that cannot keep up with the rate at which instability

is increasing, and a substantial area under the control of violent non-state actors.

Conclusion

A more formal strategy, like as beefing up military operations, might aid in reducing instability

before elections.
In order to ensure the logistics of the election process and permit the smooth running of the

election campaign, the federal government must act immediately to address the problem of fuel

shortages.

References

Osimen, Goddy & Uwa, Osimen & Christopher, Ologunowa. (2022). 2011 post-electoral violence in
Nigeria: lesson for 2015 general election. 13-323.

Premiumtimes online (2022). Kaduna Train Attack: Timeline of events three weeks after incident
without decisive action by govt https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/524593-kaduna-
train-attack-timeline-of-events-three-weeks-after-incident-without-decisive-action-by-govt.html
(Accessed: 10th February 2023).

https://ndpifoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Briefing_Rise-in-Cult-Violence-and-Insecurity-
in-Rivers-State.pdf (Accessed: 10th February 2023).

Punch online (2020) Residents turn vigilantes as hoodlums raid Ogun, Lagos communities
https://punchng.com/residents-turn-vigilantes-as-hoodlums-raid-ogun-lagos-communities/ (Accessed:
10th February 2023).

Punch online (2021) Spike in cult killings in South-West https://punchng.com/spike-in-cult-killings-in-

south-west/ (Accessed: 10th February 2023).