t y Y(t)-promedio

AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+1 Y(t+1)-promedio

2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54 33.86 -116.36
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53 41.37 -108.85
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99 49.10 -101.12
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06 51.56 -98.66
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11 58.65 -91.57
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53 63.64 -86.58
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 72.29 -77.93
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 82.32 -67.90
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 116.35 -33.87
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 117.16 -33.06
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 133.71 -16.51
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 171.14 20.92
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 176.04 25.82
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 187.05 36.83
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 219.19 68.97
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 252.14 101.92
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 267.52 117.30
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 288.27 138.05
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 291.93 141.71
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+2 Y(t+2)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53 33.86 -116.36
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99 41.37 -108.85
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06 49.10 -101.12
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11 51.56 -98.66
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53 58.65 -91.57
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 63.64 -86.58
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 72.29 -77.93
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 82.32 -67.90
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 116.35 -33.87
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 117.16 -33.06
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 133.71 -16.51
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 171.14 20.92
 2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 176.04 25.82
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 187.05 36.83
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 219.19 68.97
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 252.14 101.92
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 267.52 117.30
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 288.27 138.05
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+3 Y(t+3)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99 33.86 -116.36
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06 41.37 -108.85
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11 49.10 -101.12
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53 51.56 -98.66
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 58.65 -91.57
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 63.64 -86.58
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 72.29 -77.93
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 82.32 -67.90
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 116.35 -33.87
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 117.16 -33.06
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 133.71 -16.51
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 171.14 20.92
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 176.04 25.82
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 187.05 36.83
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 219.19 68.97
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 252.14 101.92
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 267.52 117.30
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+4 Y(t+4)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06 33.86 -116.36
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11 41.37 -108.85
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53 49.10 -101.12
 2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 51.56 -98.66
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 58.65 -91.57
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 63.64 -86.58
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 72.29 -77.93
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 82.32 -67.90
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 116.35 -33.87
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 117.16 -33.06
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 133.71 -16.51
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 171.14 20.92
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 176.04 25.82
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 187.05 36.83
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 219.19 68.97
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 252.14 101.92
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+5 Y(t+5)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11 33.86 -116.36
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53 41.37 -108.85
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 49.10 -101.12
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 51.56 -98.66
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 58.65 -91.57
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 63.64 -86.58
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 72.29 -77.93
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 82.32 -67.90
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 116.35 -33.87
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 117.16 -33.06
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 133.71 -16.51
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 171.14 20.92
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 176.04 25.82
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 187.05 36.83
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 219.19 68.97
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+6 Y(t+6)-promedio
 2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53 33.86 -116.36
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 41.37 -108.85
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 49.10 -101.12
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 51.56 -98.66
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 58.65 -91.57
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 63.64 -86.58
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 72.29 -77.93
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 82.32 -67.90
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 116.35 -33.87
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 117.16 -33.06
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 133.71 -16.51
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 171.14 20.92
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 176.04 25.82
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 187.05 36.83
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+7 Y(t+7)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92 33.86 -116.36
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 41.37 -108.85
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 49.10 -101.12
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 51.56 -98.66
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 58.65 -91.57
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 63.64 -86.58
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 72.29 -77.93
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 82.32 -67.90
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 116.35 -33.87
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 117.16 -33.06
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 133.71 -16.51
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 171.14 20.92
 2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 176.04 25.82
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+8 Y(t+8)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93 33.86 -116.36
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 41.37 -108.85
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 49.10 -101.12
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 51.56 -98.66
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 58.65 -91.57
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 63.64 -86.58
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 72.29 -77.93
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 82.32 -67.90
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 116.35 -33.87
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 117.16 -33.06
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 133.71 -16.51
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 171.14 20.92
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+9 Y(t+9)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73 33.86 -116.36
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 41.37 -108.85
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 49.10 -101.12
 2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 51.56 -98.66
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 58.65 -91.57
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 63.64 -86.58
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 72.29 -77.93
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 82.32 -67.90
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 116.35 -33.87
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 117.16 -33.06
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 133.71 -16.51
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+10 Y(t+10)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46 33.86 -116.36
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 41.37 -108.85
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 49.10 -101.12
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 51.56 -98.66
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 58.65 -91.57
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 63.64 -86.58
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 72.29 -77.93
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 82.32 -67.90
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 116.35 -33.87
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 117.16 -33.06
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+11 Y(t+11)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
 2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80 33.86 -116.36
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 41.37 -108.85
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 49.10 -101.12
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 51.56 -98.66
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 58.65 -91.57
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 63.64 -86.58
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 72.29 -77.93
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 82.32 -67.90
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 116.35 -33.87
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR

t y Y(t)-promedio
AÑO VENTAS Y(t)-promedio al cuadrado Y(t)+12 Y(t+12)-promedio
2001 33.86 -116.36 13538.81
2002 41.37 -108.85 11847.54
2003 49.10 -101.12 10224.53
2004 51.56 -98.66 9733.99
2005 58.65 -91.57 8385.06
2006 63.64 -86.58 7496.11
2007 72.29 -77.93 6072.53
2008 82.32 -67.90 4609.92
2009 116.35 -33.87 1146.93
2010 117.16 -33.06 1092.73
2011 133.71 -16.51 272.46
2012 171.14 20.92 437.80
2013 176.04 25.82 666.86 33.86 -116.36
2014 187.05 36.83 1356.71 41.37 -108.85
2015 219.19 68.97 4757.36 49.10 -101.12
2016 252.14 101.92 10388.42 51.56 -98.66
2017 267.52 117.30 13760.13 58.65 -91.57
2018 288.27 138.05 19058.79 63.64 -86.58
2019 291.93 141.71 20082.74 72.29 -77.93
2020 331.05 180.83 32700.79 82.32 -67.90
150.22 177630.21
Promedio DENOMINADOR
 Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(1)= 0.8482216335 R
Y(t+1)-promedio 1 0.8482216335
2 0.7189125527
12664.97762159 3 0.5750154314
11006.15832557 4 0.4262098639
9976.242182242 5 0.2721234428
9034.382229096 6 0.1345354842
7928.136283073 7 0.0162083493
6746.874894166 8 -0.1001921949
5290.9235561 9 -0.2061415572
2299.40770947 10 -0.2873044604
1119.50196765 11 -0.3477349132
545.64268136951 12 -0.3944123465
-345.3733574205
540.32218611451
951.1754950595
2540.544881985
7030.03582254
11956.00290307
16194.18159171 350.00
19564.0697114
300.00
25626.57707021
150669.783755 250.00
NUMERADOR 200.00

150.00
Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(2)= 0.7189125527 100.00

Y(t+2)-promedio 50.00

0.00
2000 200

11765.54256842
10738.89140691
9259.227737715
8542.073902297
7135.71988992
5878.476686751
2639.087806785
2244.411616965
559.01287387451
-691.6587636455
-426.2547688705
770.69090650951
 1781.14566159
3754.21165601
8090.84962905
14070.9173852
16623.51272928
24964.72613264
127700.5850574
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(3)= 0.5750154314
Y(t+3)-promedio

11479.83522026
9967.06368698
8754.666960961
7688.294508247
6217.272985505
2932.156547336
2575.96741428
1120.72602319
-708.6068711405
-853.6351750955
-607.9903484755
1443.17507304
2632.032935615
4320.71226252
9522.051611175
14443.95772277
21212.42915052
102140.1097077
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(4)= 0.4262098639
Y(t+4)-promedio

10654.754240535
9423.930983226
7879.63891291
 6698.725074432
3101.14654909
2862.026682131
1286.285320505
-1420.636621825
-874.5522825905
-1217.5862547
-1138.506381945
2132.607347065
3029.199742125
5085.009244645
9774.494948745
18431.20854401
75707.746048354
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(5)= 0.2721234428
Y(t+5)-promedio

10074.147387781
8482.010066075
6865.441315595
3341.292588617
3026.974864885
1429.126349856
-1630.50022451
-1753.329033275
-1247.421462195
-2280.01928817
-1682.39260792
2454.412153575
3565.03922425
5219.820182215
12472.74176998
48337.343286759
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(6)= 0.1345354842
Y(t+6)-promedio
 9067.23740893
7390.28056876
3424.44986628
3261.377210612
1511.49168761
-1811.566063259
-2012.33963596
-2500.86851288
-2335.887895665
-3369.228014145
-1936.26120141
2888.5766357
3659.55356182
6660.750203455
23897.56581984
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(7)= 0.0162083493
Y(t+7)-promedio

7900.182611615
3686.237219445
3342.545573775
1628.538314337
-1915.972682505
-2235.808457709
-2870.309415565
-4683.05914635
-3451.78612164
-3877.635607635
-2278.769219285
2965.15697327
 4669.77238306
2879.092424808
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(8)= -0.1001921949
Y(t+8)-promedio

3940.5739623
3598.07162694
1669.06898
-2064.341437178
-2364.665586955
-3189.055144014
-5374.864249035
-6920.245872325
-3972.65151513
-4563.55612551
-2339.182681715
3783.68779451
-17797.16024812
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(9)= -0.2061415572
Y(t+9)-promedio

3846.325269795
1796.663533165
-2115.718265015
-2547.780143628
-3372.85107226
-5971.738931284
-7942.53947501
-7964.492665815
-4675.379533005
-4684.54258794
-2984.913460475
-36616.96733148
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(10)= -0.2873044604
Y(t+10)-promedio

1920.62667602
-2277.45761185
-2611.188676465
-3634.037318733
-6315.91024553
-8824.552583759
-9141.0476685
-9373.34318369
-4799.330595435
-5977.7093667
-51033.95057465
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(11)= -0.3477349132
Y(t+11)-promedio
-2434.593768995
-2810.8050233
-3724.48035607
-6805.000589203
-9333.141103005
-10156.15422185
-10758.02068638
-9621.84404612
-6124.184574195
-61768.22436911
NUMERADOR

Multiplicacion
Y(t)-promedio r(12)= -0.3944123465
Y(t+12)-promedio

-3004.740180445
-4009.204002905
-6974.36178954
-10055.87923768
-10741.4874031
-11952.69089222
-11043.23134881
-12277.95162488
-70059.54647957
NUMERADOR
 Chart Title
1
0.8

0.6
0.4

0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.2
-0.4

-0.6

Column M

Chart Title
350.00

300.00

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Column C
 MÉTODO INFORMAL 1 SIMPLE
VALOR DIVISIÓN
t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 33.86
2002 41.37 33.86 7.51 56.40 7.51 0.181532511
2003 49.10 41.37 7.73 59.75 7.73 0.157433809
2004 51.56 49.10 2.46 6.03 2.45545 0.04762736
2005 58.65 51.56 7.09 50.28 7.09098 0.120910685
2006 63.64 58.65 4.99 24.90 4.9899 0.078412756
2007 72.29 63.64 8.65 74.89 8.65367 0.119707705
2008 82.32 72.29 10.03 100.60 10.03 0.121841594
2009 116.35 82.32 34.03 1158.04 34.03 0.292479587
2010 117.16 116.35 0.81 0.66 0.81 0.006913622
2011 133.71 117.16 16.55 273.90 16.55 0.123775335
2012 171.14 133.71 37.43 1401.00 37.43 0.218709828
2013 176.04 171.14 4.90 24.01 4.9 0.027834583
2014 187.05 176.04 11.01 121.22 11.01 0.058861267
2015 219.19 187.05 32.14 1032.98 32.14 0.146630777
2016 252.14 219.19 32.95 1085.70 32.95 0.130681367
2017 267.52 252.14 15.38 236.54 15.38 0.057491029
2018 288.27 267.52 20.75 430.56 20.75 0.071981129
2019 291.93 288.27 3.66 13.40 3.66 0.012537252
2020 331.05 291.93 39.12 1530.37 39.12 0.118169461
404.28 0.110185877
MSE MAPE

MÉTODO INFORMAL 1 SIMPLE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 1 33.86
2 41.37
3 49.10
4 51.56
2002 1 58.65 33.86 24.79 614.37 24.78643 0.422641753
2 63.64 41.37 22.27 495.79 22.26633 0.349899656
3 72.29 49.10 23.19 537.78 23.19 0.320791257
4 82.32 51.56 30.76 946.46 30.76455 0.373719023
2003 1 116.35 58.65 57.70 3329.70 57.70357 0.495948174
2 117.16 63.64 53.52 2864.78 53.52367 0.456842523
3 133.71 72.29 61.42 3772.42 61.42 0.45935233
4 171.14 82.32 88.82 7888.99 88.82 0.5189903
2004 1 176.04 116.35 59.69 3562.90 59.69 0.339070666
 2 187.05 117.16 69.89 4884.61 69.89 0.373643411
3 219.19 133.71 85.48 7306.83 85.48 0.389981295
4 252.14 171.14 81.00 6561.00 81 0.321250099
2005 1 267.52 176.04 91.48 8368.59 91.48 0.341955742
2 288.27 187.05 101.22 10245.49 101.22 0.35112915
3 291.93 219.19 72.74 5291.11 72.74 0.249169321
4 331.05 252.14 78.91 6226.79 78.91 0.238362785
4556.10 0.375171718
MSE MAPE

MÉTODO INFORMAL 1 SIMPLE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 Enero 33.86
Febrero 41.37
Marzo 49.10
Abril 51.56
Mayo 58.65
Junio 63.64
Julio 72.29
Agosto 82.32
Septiembre 116.35
Octubre 117.16
Noviembre 133.71
Diciembre 171.14
2002 Enero 176.04 33.86 142.18 20215.15 142.18 0.807657351
Febrero 187.05 41.37 145.68 21222.66 145.68 0.77882919
Marzo 219.19 49.10 170.09 28930.61 170.09 0.77599343
Abril 252.14 51.56 200.58 40234.16 200.58455 0.795528476
Mayo 267.52 58.65 208.87 43628.17 208.87357 0.7807774
Junio 288.27 63.64 224.63 50460.29 224.63367 0.779247476
Julio 291.93 72.29 219.64 48241.73 219.64 0.752372144
Agosto 331.05 82.32 248.73 61866.61 248.73 0.751336656
39349.92 0.777717765
MSE MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10 48.88 0.22 0.05 0.22 0.004480652
2004 51.56 56.83 -5.27 27.82 5.27455 0.102308291
2005 58.65 54.01 4.64 21.49 4.63553 0.079041981
 2006 63.64 65.74 -2.10 4.41 2.10108 0.033016989
2007 72.29 68.63 3.66 13.42 3.66377 0.05068156
2008 82.32 80.94 1.38 1.89 1.37633 0.016719266
2009 116.35 92.35 24.00 576.00 24 0.206274173
2010 117.16 150.38 -33.22 1103.57 33.22 0.283543872
2011 133.71 117.97 15.74 247.75 15.74 0.117717448
2012 171.14 150.26 20.88 435.97 20.88 0.122005376
2013 176.04 208.57 -32.53 1058.20 32.53 0.184787548
2014 187.05 180.94 6.11 37.33 6.11 0.032665063
2015 219.19 198.06 21.13 446.48 21.13 0.096400383
2016 252.14 251.33 0.81 0.66 0.81 0.003212501
2017 267.52 285.09 -17.57 308.70 17.57 0.065677333
2018 288.27 282.90 5.37 28.84 5.37 0.018628369
2019 291.93 309.02 -17.09 292.07 17.09 0.058541431
2020 331.05 295.59 35.46 1257.41 35.46 0.107113729
325.67 0.08793422
MSE MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10 50.55 -1.45 2.09 1.4456851742 0.02944369
2004 51.56 58.27 -6.72 45.14 6.7189033962 0.130323824
2005 58.65 54.13 4.51 20.36 4.5127349959 0.076948162
2006 63.64 66.71 -3.08 9.46 3.0763793594 0.04834313
2007 72.29 69.05 3.24 10.49 3.2392070384 0.044808508
2008 82.32 82.12 0.20 0.04 0.1995493078 0.002424068
2009 116.35 93.74 22.61 511.14 22.608370452 0.194313455
2010 117.16 164.45 -47.29 2236.11 47.287552235 0.403615161
2011 133.71 117.98 15.73 247.57 15.73436098 0.117675275
2012 171.14 152.60 18.54 343.81 18.542150051 0.108344923
2013 176.04 219.05 -43.01 1849.68 43.007936579 0.244307752
2014 187.05 181.08 5.97 35.64 5.9697055043 0.031915025
2015 219.19 198.75 20.44 417.85 20.44140593 0.093258844
2016 252.14 256.85 -4.71 22.21 4.7124784817 0.018689928
2017 267.52 290.04 -22.52 507.30 22.523248323 0.084192764
2018 288.27 283.84 4.43 19.64 4.4318529388 0.015373965
2019 291.93 310.63 -18.70 349.67 18.699459106 0.064054599
2020 331.05 295.64 35.41 1254.12 35.413531065 0.106973361
437.91 0.100833691
MSE MAPE
PROMEDIO MOVIL 2
VALOR DIVISIÓN
 t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10 37.61 11.49 131.91 11.485 0.233910387
2004 51.56 45.24 6.32 39.95 6.32045 0.122595186
2005 58.65 50.33 8.32 69.20 8.318705 0.141845036
2006 63.64 55.10 8.54 72.85 8.53539 0.134127628
2007 72.29 61.14 11.15 124.29 11.14862 0.154220777
2008 82.32 67.96 14.36 206.12 14.356835 0.174402758
2009 116.35 77.31 39.04 1524.51 39.045 0.335582295
2010 117.16 99.34 17.83 317.73 17.825 0.152142369
2011 133.71 116.76 16.96 287.47 16.955 0.126804278
2012 171.14 125.44 45.70 2088.95 45.705 0.267062054
2013 176.04 152.43 23.61 557.67 23.615 0.134145649
2014 187.05 173.59 13.46 181.17 13.46 0.071959369
2015 219.19 181.55 37.64 1417.15 37.645 0.171745974
2016 252.14 203.12 49.02 2402.96 49.02 0.194415801
2017 267.52 235.67 31.85 1014.74 31.855 0.119075209
2018 288.27 259.83 28.44 808.83 28.44 0.098657509
2019 291.93 277.90 14.04 196.98 14.035 0.048076594
2020 331.05 290.10 40.95 1676.90 40.95 0.123697327
728.85 0.155803678
MSE MAPE
PROMEDIO MOVIL 4
VALOR DIVISIÓN
t y Y ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
AÑO VENTASPRONOSTICADAERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10
2004 51.56
2005 58.65 43.97 14.68 215.36 14.6750675 0.250229511
2006 63.64 50.17 13.47 181.40 13.46836 0.211645769
2007 72.29 55.73 16.56 274.08 16.5554475 0.229014352
2008 82.32 61.53 20.79 432.14 20.7879475 0.252526087
2009 116.35 69.22 47.13 2220.94 47.12681 0.405043489
2010 117.16 83.65 33.51 1122.98 33.5109175 0.28602695
2011 133.71 97.03 36.68 1345.42 36.68 0.274325032
2012 171.14 112.38 58.75 3452.15 58.755 0.343315414
2013 176.04 134.59 41.45 1718.10 41.45 0.23545785
2014 187.05 149.51 37.54 1409.06 37.5375 0.200681636
2015 219.19 166.99 52.20 2725.36 52.205 0.238172362
2016 252.14 188.36 63.79 4068.53 63.785 0.252974538
2017 267.52 208.61 58.91 3470.98 58.915 0.220226525
2018 288.27 231.48 56.79 3225.67 56.795 0.197020155
2019 291.93 256.78 35.15 1235.52 35.15 0.120405577
2020 331.05 274.97 56.09 3145.53 56.085 0.169415496
1890.20 0.242905046
MSE MAPE
 METODO MSE MAPE
MÉTODO INFORMAL 1 SIMPLE 404.28 0.110186
Método informal 1 tri mestral 4556.10 0.375172
Método informal 1 mensual 39349.92 0.777718
Informal 2 325.67 0.087934
Informal 3 437.91 0.100834
PROMEDIO SIMPLE 10530.41 0.449974
PROMEDIO MOVIL 2 728.85 0.155804
PROMEDIO MOVIL 3 1212.79 0.198659
PROMEDIO MOVIL 4 1890.20 0.242905
PROMEDIO MOVIL 5 2775.29 0.283926
PROMEDIO SIMPLE

t y Y ERROR
AÑO VENTAS PRONOSTICADA ERROR CUADRADO
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10 37.61 11.49 131.91
2004 51.56 41.44 10.11 102.25
2005 58.65 43.97 14.68 215.36
2006 63.64 46.91 16.73 279.89
2007 72.29 49.69 22.60 510.55
2008 82.32 52.92 29.40 864.21
2009 116.35 56.60 59.75 3570.39
2010 117.16 63.24 53.92 2907.75
2011 133.71 68.63 65.08 4235.56
2012 171.14 74.55 96.59 9330.54
2013 176.04 82.59 93.45 8732.00
2014 187.05 89.78 97.27 9460.88
2015 219.19 96.73 122.46 14996.31
2016 252.14 104.89 147.25 21681.22
2017 267.52 114.10 153.42 23538.50
2018 288.27 123.12 165.15 27273.78
2019 291.93 132.30 159.63 25482.66
2020 331.05 140.70 190.35 36233.56
10530.41
MSE
PROMEDIO MOVIL 3
 t y Y ERROR
AÑO VENTAS PRONOSTICADA ERROR CUADRADO
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10
2004 51.56 41.44 10.11 102.25
2005 58.65 47.34 11.30 127.79
2006 63.64 53.10 10.54 111.00
2007 72.29 57.95 14.34 205.75
2008 82.32 64.86 17.46 304.94
2009 116.35 72.75 43.60 1901.07
2010 117.16 90.32 26.84 720.39
2011 133.71 105.28 28.43 808.45
2012 171.14 122.41 48.73 2374.94
2013 176.04 140.67 35.37 1251.04
2014 187.05 160.30 26.75 715.74
2015 219.19 178.08 41.11 1690.31
2016 252.14 194.09 58.05 3369.42
2017 267.52 219.46 48.06 2309.76
2018 288.27 246.28 41.99 1762.88
2019 291.93 269.31 22.62 511.66
2020 331.05 282.57 48.48 2349.99
1212.79
MSE
PROMEDIO MOVIL 5

t y Y ERROR
AÑO VENTAS PRONOSTICADA ERROR CUADRADO
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10
2004 51.56
2005 58.65
2006 63.64 46.91 16.73 279.89
2007 72.29 52.86 19.43 377.46
2008 82.32 59.05 23.27 541.70
2009 116.35 65.69 50.66 2566.47
2010 117.16 78.65 38.51 1483.13
2011 133.71 90.35 43.36 1879.98
2012 171.14 104.37 66.77 4458.77
2013 176.04 124.14 51.90 2694.03
2014 187.05 142.88 44.17 1950.99
2015 219.19 157.02 62.17 3865.11
2016 252.14 177.43 74.71 5582.18
2017 267.52 201.11 66.41 4410.02
2018 288.27 220.39 67.88 4607.97
2019 291.93 242.83 49.10 2410.42
2020 331.05 263.81 67.24 4521.22
2775.29
MSE
 VALOR DIVISIÓN
ABSOLUTO VALORES
DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

11.485 0.233910387
10.11211667 0.196140596
14.6750675 0.250229511
16.729954 0.262899416
22.59529833 0.312564647
29.39739857 0.357111256
59.75272375 0.513560153
53.92353222 0.460255482
65.081179 0.486733819
96.59470818 0.564419237
93.44514917 0.530817707
97.26706077 0.520005671
122.4594136 0.558690696
147.2454527 0.583982917
153.4226119 0.573499596
165.1477524 0.572892609
159.6328772 0.546819022
190.3511468 0.574992137
0.449973603
MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
ABSOLUTO VALORES
DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

10.11211667 0.196140596
11.30461333 0.192758764
10.53570333 0.16556114
14.34393 0.19842205
17.46241333 0.212128442
43.60122333 0.374741928
26.84 0.229088426
28.43333333 0.212649266
48.73333333 0.284757119
35.37 0.200920245
26.75333333 0.143027711
41.11333333 0.187569384
58.04666667 0.230216018
48.06 0.17965012
41.98666667 0.14565049
22.62 0.077484328
48.47666667 0.146433067
0.19865877
MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
ABSOLUTO VALORES
DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

16.729954 0.262899416
19.428358 0.268755817
23.274358 0.282730296
50.660358 0.435413477
38.511448 0.32870816
43.358734 0.32427443
66.774 0.390171789
51.904 0.294842081
44.17 0.23614007
62.17 0.283635202
74.714 0.296319505
66.408 0.248235646
67.882 0.235480626
49.096 0.168177303
67.24 0.203111312
0.283926342
MAPE
PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
k=2 p=1
t y M M a b Y
AÑO VENTAS pronosticada
2001 33.86
2002 41.37 37.61
2003 49.10 45.24 41.43 49.05 7.62
2004 51.56 50.33 47.78 52.87 5.09 56.67
2005 58.65 55.10 52.71 57.49 4.77 57.97
2006 63.64 61.14 58.12 64.16 6.04 62.26
2007 72.29 67.96 64.55 71.37 6.82 70.20
2008 82.32 77.31 72.63 81.98 9.34 78.20
2009 116.35 99.34 88.32 110.35 22.03 91.32
2010 117.16 116.76 108.04 125.47 17.42 132.38
2011 133.71 125.44 121.10 129.78 8.68 142.89
2012 171.14 152.43 138.93 165.92 26.99 138.46
2013 176.04 173.59 163.01 184.17 21.16 192.91
2014 187.05 181.55 177.57 185.52 7.96 205.34
2015 219.19 203.12 192.33 213.91 21.57 193.48
2016 252.14 235.67 219.39 251.94 32.55 235.48
2017 267.52 259.83 247.75 271.91 24.16 284.48
2018 288.27 277.90 268.86 286.93 18.07 296.08
2019 291.93 290.10 284.00 296.20 12.21 304.99
2020 331.05 311.49 300.80 322.19 21.39 308.41

PROMEDIO MOVIL TRIPLE

k=3 p=1
t y M M a b Y
AÑO VENTAS pronosticada
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10 41.44
2004 51.56 47.34
2005 58.65 53.10 47.29526 58.90599 5.81
2006 63.64 57.95 52.79617 63.09597 5.15 64.71136
2007 72.29 64.86 58.63476 71.08041 6.22 68.24587
2008 82.32 72.75 65.18414 80.31341 7.56 77.30324
2009 116.35 90.32 75.97545 104.66455 14.34 87.87804
2010 117.16 105.28 89.44848 121.10485 15.83 119.00909
2011 133.71 122.41 106.00111 138.81222 16.41 136.93304
 2012 171.14 140.67 122.78444 158.55556 17.89 155.21778
2013 176.04 160.30 141.12444 179.46889 19.17 176.44111
2014 187.05 178.08 159.68111 196.47222 18.40 198.64111
2015 219.19 194.09 177.48889 210.69778 16.60 214.86778
2016 252.14 219.46 197.21000 241.71000 22.25 227.30222
2017 267.52 246.28 219.94556 272.62111 26.34 263.96000
2018 288.27 269.31 245.01778 293.60222 24.29 298.95889
2019 291.93 282.57 266.05556 299.09111 16.52 317.89444
2020 331.05 303.75 285.21111 322.28889 18.54 315.60889

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE

k=4 p=1
t y M M a b Y
AÑO VENTAS pronosticada
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10
2004 51.56 43.97
2005 58.65 50.17
2006 63.64 55.73
2007 72.29 61.53 52.85148 70.21262 5.79
2008 82.32 69.22 59.16444 79.28194 6.71 75.99967
2009 116.35 83.65 67.53472 99.76345 10.74 85.98777
2010 117.16 97.03 77.85858 116.20142 12.78 110.50635
2011 133.71 112.38 90.57182 134.19818 14.54 128.98236
2012 171.14 134.59 106.91352 162.26648 18.45 148.74030
2013 176.04 149.51 123.37938 175.64563 17.42 180.71747
2014 187.05 166.99 140.86813 193.10188 17.41 193.06771
2015 219.19 188.36 159.86063 216.84937 19.00 210.51313
2016 252.14 208.61 178.36438 238.84562 20.16 235.84562
2017 267.52 231.48 198.85500 264.09500 21.75 259.00604
2018 288.27 256.78 221.30375 292.25625 23.65 285.84167
2019 291.93 274.97 242.95625 306.97375 21.34 315.90708
2020 331.05 294.69 264.47813 324.90688 20.14 328.31292

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE

k=5 p=1
t y M M a b Y
AÑO VENTAS pronosticada
2001 33.86
 2002 41.37
2003 49.10
2004 51.56
2005 58.65 46.91
2006 63.64 52.86
2007 72.29 59.05
2008 82.32 65.69
2009 116.35 78.65 60.63037 96.66673 9.01
2010 117.16 90.35 69.31935 111.38318 10.52 105.67582
2011 133.71 104.37 79.62022 129.11178 12.37 121.89914
2012 171.14 124.14 92.63829 155.63371 15.75 141.48467
2013 176.04 142.88 108.07636 177.68364 17.40 171.38256
2014 187.05 157.02 123.75065 190.28935 16.63 195.08545
2015 219.19 177.43 141.16560 213.68640 18.13 206.92402
2016 252.14 201.11 160.51480 241.70920 20.30 231.81660
2017 267.52 220.39 179.76520 261.01080 20.31 262.00780
2018 288.27 242.83 199.75600 285.91200 21.54 281.32220
2019 291.93 263.81 221.11400 306.50600 21.35 307.45100
2020 331.05 286.18 242.86520 329.49880 21.66 327.85400

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE

k=6 p=1
t y M M a b Y
AÑO VENTAS pronosticada
2001 33.86
2002 41.37
2003 49.10
2004 51.56
2005 58.65
2006 63.64 49.69
2007 72.29 56.10
2008 82.32 62.92
2009 116.35 74.13
2010 117.16 85.07
2011 133.71 97.58 70.91616 124.23928 10.66
2012 171.14 115.50 81.88288 149.10712 13.44 134.90390
2013 176.04 132.79 94.66404 170.90929 15.25 162.55197
2014 187.05 150.24 109.21687 191.26646 16.41 186.15834
2015 219.19 167.38 124.75831 210.00503 17.05 207.67638
2016 252.14 189.88 142.22684 237.52982 19.06 227.05437
2017 267.52 212.18 161.32722 263.03278 20.34 256.59042
2018 288.27 231.70 180.69500 282.70833 20.40 283.37389
2019 291.93 251.02 200.40000 301.63333 20.25 303.11100
2020 331.05 275.02 221.19583 328.83750 21.53 321.88000
 VALOR DIVISIÓN
ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
ERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

METODO
0
- 5.10955 26.10750 5.10955 0.09910785 Método informal 1 tri mestral
0.67962 0.46188 0.67962 0.01158839 Método informal 1 mensual
1.37557 1.89219 1.37557 0.02161607 Informal 2
2.08796 4.35958 2.08796 0.02888311 Informal 3
4.12416 17.00868 4.12416 0.05009909 PROMEDIO SIMPLE
25.03225 626.61341 25.03225 0.21514609 PROMEDIO MOVIL 2
- 15.22000 231.64840 15.22000 0.12990782 PROMEDIO MOVIL 3
- 9.17500 84.18063 9.17500 0.06861865 PROMEDIO MOVIL 4
32.68500 1,068.30922 32.68500 0.19098399 PROMEDIO MOVIL 5
- 16.87000 284.59690 16.87000 0.09583049 PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
- 18.28750 334.43266 18.28750 0.09776798 PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
25.71250 661.13266 25.71250 0.1173069 PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
16.65750 277.47231 16.65750 0.06606449 PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
- 16.96250 287.72641 16.96250 0.06340647 PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
- 7.80750 60.95706 7.80750 0.02708398
- 13.06250 170.62891 13.06250 0.04474532
22.64250 512.68281 22.64250 0.06839601
273.54 0.08215016
MSE MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
ERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

- 1.07503 1.15569 1.07503 0.01689337

4.04413 16.35501 4.04413 0.05594318
5.01676 25.16790 5.01676 0.0609422
28.47196 810.65244 28.47196 0.24470957
- 1.84909 3.41914 1.84909 0.01578261
- 3.22304 10.38797 3.22304 0.02410469
 15.92222 253.51716 15.92222 0.09303624
- 0.40111 0.16089 0.40111 0.00227852
- 11.59111 134.35386 11.59111 0.06196798
4.32222 18.68160 4.32222 0.01971907
24.83778 616.91520 24.83778 0.09850788
3.56000 12.67360 3.56000 0.01330742
- 10.68889 114.25235 10.68889 0.03707944
- 25.96444 674.15238 25.96444 0.08894065
15.44111 238.42791 15.44111 0.04664284
195.35 0.05865704
MSE MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
ERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

6.32033 39.94662 6.32033 0.07677762

30.36223 921.86493 30.36223 0.26095598
6.65365 44.27100 6.65365 0.0567911
4.72764 22.35054 4.72764 0.03535738
22.39970 501.74642 22.39970 0.13088522
- 4.67747 21.87868 4.67747 0.02657047
- 6.01771 36.21281 6.01771 0.03217166
8.67687 75.28816 8.67687 0.03958609
16.29438 265.50666 16.29438 0.06462432
8.51396 72.48749 8.51396 0.0318255
2.42833 5.89680 2.42833 0.00842382
- 23.97708 574.90053 23.97708 0.08213299
2.73708 7.49163 2.73708 0.00826789
199.22 0.06572077
MSE MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
ERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS
 11.48418 131.88630 11.48418 0.09802131
11.81086 139.49637 11.81086 0.0883319
29.65533 879.43863 29.65533 0.17328112
4.65744 21.69173 4.65744 0.0264567
- 8.03545 64.56853 8.03545 0.04295886
12.26598 150.45426 12.26598 0.05596049
20.32340 413.04059 20.32340 0.08060363
5.51220 30.38435 5.51220 0.02060481
6.94780 48.27192 6.94780 0.02410171
- 15.52100 240.90144 15.52100 0.05316686
3.19600 10.21442 3.19600 0.00965413
193.67 0.06119468
MSE MAPE

VALOR DIVISIÓN
ERROR ABSOLUTO VALORES
ERROR CUADRADO DEL ERROR ABSOLUTOS

36.23610 1,313.05484 36.23610 0.21173366

13.48803 181.92705 13.48803 0.07661914
0.89166 0.79506 0.89166 0.00476695
11.51362 132.56338 11.51362 0.05252802
25.08563 629.28890 25.08563 0.09949088
10.92958 119.45571 10.92958 0.04085519
4.89611 23.97190 4.89611 0.01698446
- 11.18100 125.01476 11.18100 0.03830028
9.17000 84.08890 9.17000 0.02769974
290.01783 0.06321981
MSE MAPE
k p MSE MAPE

0.00 0
2 0.00 0
0.00 0
0.00 0
0.00 0
2 1 273.54 0.08215015961966
3 1 195.35 0.05865704430184
4 1 199.22 0.06572077208845
5 1 193.67 0.06119468353391
6 1 290.01783 0.06321981450785