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15 January 2023
3QFY23 Results Update | Sector: Departmental Retail
Avenue Supermarts
Estimate changes
TP change
CMP: INR3,862 TP: INR4,050 (+5%) Neutral
Rating change Soft earnings on weak discretionary demand
Avenue Supermarts (DMART) posted revenue/PAT growth of 25%/7% YoY
Bloomberg DMART IN
Equity Shares (m) (6%/18% miss) in 3QFY23, as weak discretionary demand pulled down SSSG.
648
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) While higher size store too increased costs, employee/other expenses per
2501.8 / 30.8
52-Week Range (INR) sqft has seen visible cost savings, down -6%/-10% vs the pre-Covid level,
4606 / 3185
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -2/-13/-8
translating into 5.7% PAT margin (closer to pre-Covid levels).
12M Avg Val (INR M) 1903
Lower footfall and weak demand in the discretionary non-FMCG segment,
along with a 20% increase in the store size, affected store productivity,
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March FY22 FY23E FY24E which may take few quarters to recover. We estimate an EBITDA/PAT CAGR
Sales 309.8 441.1 574.9 of 28%/26% over FY23E-25E. We value the company at 50x EV/EBITDA on
EBITDA 25.0 38.3 51.9 the FY24E basis and maintain our Neutral rating with a TP of INR4,050, given
Adj. PAT 14.9 23.9 33.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.1 8.7 9.0
its rich valuation.
Adj. EPS (INR) 23.0 37.0 51.5 Revenue/PAT up 26%/7% YoY; Cost control measures visible
EPS Gr. (%) 35.7 60.4 39.5
BV/Sh. (INR) 219.2 259.8 313.3
DMART’s consol/standalone revenue grew by 26%/25% YoY to INR116b/
Ratios INR113b (6% miss), as the performance of the discretionary segment was
Net D:E -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 weak. Growth was largely driven by the 22% store area addition. Blended
RoE (%) 11.5 16.0 18.7
revenue per sqft (annualized) declined 2% YoY to ~INR36,200 due to an
RoCE (%) 11.4 16.1 17.1
Payout (%) 0 0 0 increase in the average store size and store count adds of 16% YoY.
Valuations DMART added four stores in 3QFY23 and 22 stores in 9MFY23, taking the
P/E (x) 167.6 104.5 74.9 total count to 306. We have cut our full-year store addition estimate from
EV/EBITDA (x) 100.3 65.0 48.0
EV/Sales (X) 8.1 5.7 4.3 45 to 40 stores, taking the total store count to 324, implying 18 new stores
Div. Yield (%) 0 0 0 in 4QFY23.
FCF Yield (%) -0.4 0.1 0.4 Consol/standalone gross margins declined 60bp YoY to 14.8%/14.3% (70bp
below est.) due to the mix impact from the weak discretionary segment,
Shareholding pattern (%)
which garners 25-30% margin vs 8-9% for FMCG. We have earlier indicated
As On Sep-22 Jun-22 Sep-21
Promoter 75.0 75.0 75.0
the weakness in the discretionary value segment, which is pulling down
DII 7.1 6.9 6.8 margins.
FII 8.7 8.6 10.0 Consol/standalone EBITDA grew by 11%/12% YoY to INR9.7b (14% miss). As
Others 9.2 9.5 8.3 a result, EBITDA margin declined to 8.3%/8.6% in 3QFY23 (80bp/70bp below
FII Includes depository receipts est). EBITDA margin is closer to the pre-Covid level (3QFY20) of 8.8%
despite the low gross margin. Other expenses/employee costs increased
43%/19% YoY; however, compared to the area addition, there is visible
saving, down 6%/10% on per sqft basis over the pre-Covid level.
Subsequently, consol/standalone PAT grew by a merely 7%/9% YoY to
INR5.9b/INR6.4b (18%/15% miss), with standalone PAT margin down 80bp
YoY at 5.7%. DMART managed to reach closer to pre-Covid margin of 5.8%.
Key highlights from the management commentary
FMCG and staples segments continued to outperform the general
merchandise and apparel segments.
DMart Ready has expanded E-Commerce operations in four new cities,
increasing its network to 22 cities in India (vs 18 cities in 2QFY23).
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Avenue Supermarts
Performance in 3QFY23
Store additions slowed down in 3QFY23
DMART added four stores (vs 12 stores est) in 3QFY23, taking the total count to
306. In 1HFY23 it added 18 stores.
The company added 22 stores in 9MFY23 (vs 50/20 added in FY22/FY21). We
have cut our full-year store addition expectation from 329 to 324 stores,
implying 18 new stores in 4QFY23, which could be a relatively taller ask.
Sales per sqft below pre-Covid level due to subdued demand in non-FMCG
Blended revenue per sqft (annualized) declined 2% YoY to ~INR36,200, while
revenue per store improved 4% YoY to INR1.5b due to an increase in the
average store size and store count adds of 16% YoY.
As per our calculation, LTL growth in 3QFY23 should be in mid-single digits.
Management previously indicated that a larger store takes longer to reach
stable revenue per sqft state.
FMCG and staples segments continued to outperform the general merchandise
and apparel segments, led by 1) 3-6% price hikes sequentially and 2) continued
soft performance in the value segment.
The company reported in 2QFY23 that LFL growth for five years and more older
stores stood at 7% annualized / 21% absolute basis (2QFY22 v/s 2QFY20)
Pharmacy shop-in-shop
The company is in the process of commencing a pharmacy shop-in-shop at one
of the stores through a subsidiary, Reflect Healthcare and Retail Private Limited.
This is yet another pilot that will complement the brick-and-mortar business,
leveraging the existing store infrastructure.
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Avenue Supermarts
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Avenue Supermarts
Story in charts
Exhibit 3: Consolidated revenue up 26% YoY Exhibit 4: GM at 14.8% and GP up 21% YoY
Revenue (INR b) YoY growth (%) Gross Profit (INR b) Gross margin (%)
94 16 15 15 16 15 16 15
91 15 15 15
75.4
14 14 15 15
53.1
13
38.8
47 37 26
27 22 24 24 33 22 19
21
-22
100.4
-35
2QFY23 106.4
3QFY23 115.7
58.1
74.1
51.8
77.9
10.4
11.7
11.0
11.6
14.2
13.1
16.4
16.1
17.2
59.9
68.1
87.9
3QFY22 92.2
4QFY20 62.6
9.5
9.2
8.5
5.5
7.7
6.8
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: EBITDA margin at 8.3% and EBITDA up 11% YoY Exhibit 6: PAT margin at 5.1% and Consol PAT up 7% YoY
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA margin (%) PAT (INR b) YoY growth (%)
10.3 10.0
6.9
9.4
6.4
8.6 8.8 9.1 8.6
5.9
8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3
5.5
6.7
4.5
6.2
4.3
4.2
4.1
1.0
3.8
3.2
3.2
4.3
0.4
2.7
2.9 574
2.0
-88
10.1
6.0
5.2
6.0
4.2
3.3
6.9
6.1
2.2
6.7
8.7
7.4
8.9
9.7
32 48 55 42 138 110 24 3
-38 16 53
1QFY21 1.1
64 7
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 7: SSSG trend (for stores operating for 24 months) Exhibit 8: Expect store additions to gain momentum
Total Store Count New Stores
53%
50
36%
38 40
22% 22% 21%
14% 18% 11% 17%
24
45
21 21 21 20
14
-13% 89 110 131 155 176 214 234 284 324 369
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
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Avenue Supermarts
Exhibit 9: Expect 36% consol revenue CAGR over FY22-24 Exhibit 10: Expect 39% GP CAGR over FY22-24
Revenue (INR b) YoY growth (%) Gross Profit (INR b) Gross margin (%)
42
37 39 15.9
33 33 30
26 24
28 15.3
15.0 15.1 14.9 15.2 15.4
241 14.8 14.9 14.8
-3
64 86 119 150 200 249 310 441 575 9.5 12.8 18.2 24.0 30.0 37.7 35.9 45.8 67.2 88.7
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 11: Expect 44% EBITDA CAGR over FY22-24 Exhibit 12: Expect 50% PAT CAGR over FY22-24
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA margin (%) PAT (INR b) PAT margin (%)
4.6 6.6 9.8 13.5 16.3 21.3 17.4 25.0 38.3 51.9 2.1 3.2 4.8 8.1 9.0 13.0 11.0 14.9 25.3 33.4
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
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Avenue Supermarts
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