Oral anglais

INTRO:

COP28 (short for "Conference of the Parties") is the United Nations' 28th annual climate
meeting. Governments discuss how to limit and prepare for climate change. Signed by 198
countries, its membership is almost universal. The UN climate conferences are hosted each
year by a different country. This year, Sultan al-Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced
Technology of the United Arab Emirates, will chair the COP28 negotiations.

The main objective of the COP is to achieve consensus and collective action to protect the
environment. To achieve this, they want to halt the rise in global average temperature to
below 2°C and continue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These
targets were agreed by nearly 200 countries in Paris in 2015.

Partie 1:
COP28 took a number of important decisions to combat climate change:

1. Increasing sustainable energy and energy efficiency

2. Ending support for fossil fuels

3. Develop an adaptation framework

4. Establish a financing plan for loss and damage.

These decisions can have a positive short- and long-term impact on the fight against climate
change. In the short term, they can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the
effects of climate change. In the long term, they can promote the transition to a sustainable
economy.

We will therefore look at some of the positive effects that these decisions can have:

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: The transition to renewable energies and energy
efficiency can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are the main cause of
climate change.
Transition to a sustainable economy: Investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency
can create jobs and stimulate economic growth. They can also help reduce pollution and
improve human health.

Better preparedness for the effects of climate change, an adaptation framework and a
mechanism for financing loss and damage can help the most vulnerable countries to adapt
to the current and future effects of climate change.

Reduction of inequalities: The transition to a sustainable economy can contribute to reducing

inequalities by creating economic opportunities for all.

While these decisions have the potential for positive impact, there are also potential risks.
One of the main risks is that the decisions may not be implemented. Governments need to
commit to taking concrete actions to achieve their goals.

Another risk is the resistance from fossil fuel-producing countries. These countries may
oppose the transition to renewable energies as it could have a negative impact on their
economies.

Partie 2
The COP 28 is a source of debates and tensions between countries that are more in favor
of abandoning fossil fuels and those that are against, such as the OPEC countries
(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). This split between these two parties
can be explained by the different economic effects that abandoning fossil fuels can have on
their economies.
OPEC member countries hold the majority of proven crude oil reserves in the world,
representing 80.4% of total crude oil reserves in 2021. We will take the example of Saudi
Arabia to illustrate the reluctance of OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia's oil reserves amounted
to 40.9 billion tons in 2020, making it one of the world's largest oil reserves, accounting for
about a fifth of global conventional oil sources. Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil
company in terms of production and owns almost all of Saudi Arabia's oil resources.
For OPEC countries, the reduction or total abandonment of fossil fuels can have negative
effects on their economy. OPEC countries are often heavily dependent on income from oil
exports. Abandoning fossil fuels could lead to a reduction in global oil demand, with negative
economic consequences for these nations. According to Fortune, Saudi Aramco was the
second-largest company in the world in terms of revenue in 2022 (partly due to the increase
in oil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war), which led to strong growth in Saudi Arabia.
Conversely, a decrease in global oil demand would drag down Saudi Arabia's GDP, despite
its efforts at economic diversification.

The oil and gas industry is a significant source of employment in some countries. A rapid
transition to renewable energies could result in job losses in these sectors, creating
economic and social challenges.
 This is illustrated by the statistics showing the number of employees at Saudi Aramco
worldwide. In 2011, the company had 56,066 employees, rising to 70,496 a little over a
decade later, with a temporary decrease in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a
negative oil barrel price.

"It is estimated that the world is $1.5 trillion poorer than it would have been without climate
change," reveals a study published by the University of Delaware. This emphasizes the
economic importance of abandoning fossil fuels to slow down global warming. Over the
years, several countries worldwide have faced economic losses worth billions due to
extreme weather conditions and climate change. In order to assist developing and poor
countries in facing the climate crisis, the COP 28 climate summit took a 'major first step' on
November 30 by establishing the 'Loss and Damage' fund. 'Loss and Damage' refers to
economic, non-economic, and ecological losses estimated to be caused by current and
future impacts of climate change. This includes losses and damages due to rapidly occurring
extreme weather events, such as floods and tropical cyclones, as well as slow-evolving
changes, such as sea-level rise and drought, explains the Center for Science and
Environment. A University of Delaware study suggests that progressive temperature
increases have been systematically associated with increasing GDP losses. "Globally,
climate change resulted in a loss of 6.3% of population-weighted gross domestic product
(GDP) in 2022..." It is developing and least developed countries that suffer the most negative
effects on GDP.
More than $400 million was initially pledged to the new 'Loss and Damage' fund for
countries affected by climate change since it was approved by nations participating in COP
28. This fund will help countries cope with 'losses and damages' caused by climate change.
Finally, abandoning fossil fuels, for countries not dependent on these energies, can have
positive effects on the economy. Firstly, investing in renewable energy sources can stimulate
the clean energy sector, creating jobs and fostering technological innovation. Renewables,
such as solar and wind power, can become more cost-competitive in the long term, reducing
dependence on fossil fuel price fluctuations. Transitioning to cleaner energies can generate
jobs in sectors like manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of renewable energy-related
equipment. Reducing the use of fossil fuels can decrease air pollution, positively impacting
public health and reducing costs associated with health problems related to pollution. The
energy transition can help mitigate the impacts of climate change, potentially reducing costs
associated with natural disasters and extreme weather events