TEST 1

FTG 60803
RELABILITY ENGINEERING

Question 1

a) Briefly explain (in your own words) the meaning of Reliability and discuss three(3)
effects if the unreliability occurs in respective system/component.

b) State one (1) different of discrete distribution and continuous distribution in reliability
analysis.

c) A coin that is fair in nature is tossed 6 number of times. Calculate the probability of
the occurrence of a head is 6 times and the probability that a head comes is 4 times.
(use Binomial Distribution formula)
i) 6C6(1/2)6-6(1/2)6=0.0156
ii) 6C4(1/2)6-4(1/2)4=0.234

d)Referring to below block diagram, Find the total reliability, RAB of the system if 1=0.02,
2=0.02, 3=0.01, 4=0.02 and 5=0.01.
1

3 4 B
A
2

Figure 1

R1//R2=RX

R3 series with R4=RY

RX series with RY =RZ

RZ //R5=RAB

Question 2

a) You have a piece of land that you believe may have gold underground. That only a 10%
chance that you will strike gold if you drill, but the payoff is $200,000. It cost $10,000 to drill.
The alternative is not to drill at all in which case your profit is zero.
i. Draw a decision tree to represent your problem. Should you drill?
ii. Calculate the Expected Value (EV) with information.
iii. Calculate the EVPI.
 b) In your business, you need to make a decision either to refurbish, sale or continue operation.

Decision State of Nature(Profit in million of RM)

Alternative
High Reliability Low Reliability
(strong demand for electricity) (weak demand for electricity)
Refurbish 100 -40
Sale 40 50
Continue 80 -20
Operation

i. Choose you decision based on optimistic approach and conservative approach.

ii. If chance to have strong demand for electricity is only 30%, calculate the Expected Value
without Perfect information( EVwoPI). Draw the decision tree.
iii. Calculate the Expected value of Perfect Information (EVPI).