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2 -802L6.1676.!+,3XWI/S*6.0 okKL6.( .3y9x-8,N& #X-8y)"!+,.6.&1!" &/1!+67& *$oKTL!" 02/1 & -Z&(* *;0 6.(
KL3E( !"6. 6N#JKT!+c -3-a,.!"=+L6N -802L#*!+*OQPR(LIH02*;!" -+c-+9S( !"6.6.#J 6.0?!" c(02!+
&6gfS*#Xd6.(d/S*9@-+0 !+#X-+9Z(dKh-!+,7=+-+;670 d@-[)+*u(. 9@-8,.&;$RKL6.,.p(<&((-80?6.!" -+
6.0?!" n()"!"6.!+1#X'-+9m( U&6gfS*#X*Okv467r EDo(*6N#&!"!D$(KTU#X-8 H1#X & .G(-8(y-[)+*,.!"/1/16.(=
!+6.16.(=:*J!+&r02!+H(&G(02!+M!+&G)"!"6.!+#X'-8r(-8 !+6N6.(=a **O`v<U9@-8H&i!"nKL6.,7(
)"!"6.!+#XQKn!+m,.67=83,7EH1&(* 6.0?!" &UKL(UQ !+6.6N(=J *%-t)+*,.!"//S& $e(c02!+1 Kh*c-D#*#*!+67-8!+,.,.E
)+*Er/S-3-+;,7E? 6N0 !" & $1!+&A6.JKn!+R( #*!+H1 -+9k(Z,.!"=+ )"!+,.H(OcPR(U/-+\1,70 #*!+A\SU !+#X&p -
(Z#X-+,.!"67-8n\S*Kh*p(Z&6gfS*3J9x-8,N&J!+L&(#X67\S&r!"\-t)++O
v<U9@-8H&G!"R679mKh*/1,N!+#X&r(U3H0 *!" -+J-+9m( !"6. 6.#'KL6.i'-+\5 *)+&M&6gfS*#X'9@-80
! F>" ' ( 9@-8,.&<-+9n( .3y9@-8,.&_#X-8y)e!+,N6.&!"67-8 $m(? !"6.6.#2\S#*!+02 KT,.,gy\S![)+& O?PR6NU,7&]HU -u(
$
W ¤ #X)M/1!+67& *O
Z16.% *$+KTc/S*9@-+0 */5,.6.#*!"67-8%-+9 ¤ y9x-8,.&a#X-8 y)e!+,.6N&!"67-8 OVZ!+#*/1,N6.#*!"67-8 $t(T![)e!+6N,.!"\1,7
&!"!!"G!+&(-80 ,.E/5!"6767-8(&^6.3 -pzKT-dF3H1!+,gyz67{*&^ * 1 !+& 9 O h!+#,7!"6N(=p!+,7=+-+6.0
-+ $ J6. !+6.(&u-8!+#< *!+&u &d-8(a-+(*U **OUPR6.L/-D&H#XR9@-8H('*-+ 6.0?!" * 1
!+& ( 1 @ !+6.(&-8 1 !+& & -8 9 !+& 9 !+1& 9 @ !+6.&-8 9 !+1& &-8 1 ;O
¢DH(\1 !+#X6.(=2#X-+/-81&6.(=*-+J6.0 !" R=86.)+LHJKh-i 6.0 !" &p&6gfS*#X 1 5 1 = 1 !+&
9 5 9 = 9 O`j(-80 ( zKT-a&67f*1#X*$8(R6.0 !" &i)e!"6N!+#XL6. ! 9 5} 1 = 9 3 9 = 9 $
KL(* 5 1 3 9 0 : ¤ OUl%* ! 9 \:(a)e!"6N!+#Xa#X-80 /1H( &u9x-80q( y*/1,.6N#*!"67-8 $5!+1&u,7* 1 1
\SU( 1 9@-80 (U)+*EiB5 J-+9 (UB1)+U*/5,.6.#*!"67-8OkPL(A&(XB5' 9x-8,N,7-[KL6N(=2 !"6. 6.#
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KL6N#UKTcKL6N,.,+#*!+,.,+( W ¤ #X) !"6N 6.#"Ov<T#*,.!+6N0!"VH1&(*%(h3H,N,+oEI/S-+(6.*$ !+V!"/1/-W(6.0 !" ,.E
! &6. ;67\1H(67-8iKL67 &*=+*R-+9k9@*&(-80MOQPR !"=8H023R=+-IL!+R9@-8,.,7-tKL*O
lm* 4\SR!Z !+1&!"&?-+0 !+,(!+1&(-80Y)"!"6.!"\1,.R!+& $\SR!?7 9 !+&-80})e!";6.!"\1,7RK67 . = &(*=+* Õ
-+9k9x*&(-80MOQPR(r\IEM&(XB56.67-8 $I(ZFIH!+o6.zE
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& $ :D . = Õ
!+R! &6N 67\1H67-8?K67 . = Õ

&(*=+*L-+9k9x*&-80679 !+& $!":6.&(*/S&(3*O
PRGHH!+, !"6. 6.#r6.a&(*6.)+&^\IE_ !"6.(=KL67>!*a-+9!+&(-80)"!"6.!"\1,7 1 J ! 1!)D6.(=
!A(-+;0 !+,Q&6. 67\1H(6.-8pKL6.]02!+ !+1&<)e!";6.!+#X 9"O?lm* 5 1 \S2(?!+02/1A A ,7 A 02!+^!+&
9 5 < = ] 9 \SU( H0-+9FIH!"&p&(*)I6N!"67-8n9@-80 (Z0 !!+ OQ PR( A&XB5(

5 1
. = V0:

$ 5 9: 9
A
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v<,.,gyCD(-tKL<H1,79x-80 /-+\1!"\56.,.67EA(*-+Ed !" ?1!" 1!+ !A !+&1!"&](-+0?!+,`&6. 6.\1H(67-8!+&
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$ !+R! 7<9'&6. 67\1H(6.-8 KL67 . = &(*=+*R-+9V9@*&(-80MOQ| 02-+U0 !"C"!"\1,7H,.h9@-80/-+\5!"\16.,.67E
(*-+Ei6.T!" !+& $Y!"U!+,. -6.&*/1&(o*$3/-t)I6.&&?('-+67=86N!+, TKh*&!KLG9@-80 !a-+0 !+,
&6. 67\1H(6.-8 OVs#X+$1KT #*!+A/5,.H(=(06.3 - hF3H!"6.-8] J!+J9@-8,.,7-tKL* Õ

5 & $ D: . = Õ
1
. = V0:
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5 & 9 :D 9 . =
1
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5 & 9 D: . =
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v<<#*!+#X-8 ;H#X \3E !+1!+,7-+=+E!+G9@-8,.,7-[K*O '&(*r(dIH,.,L3EI/-+6.*$J(dIH02*!" -+M-+9 $
1
1 $n6.2(p&16gf*#XM-+9zKT-^6.&(36.#*!+,.,.E^&6. 67\1H( &^/-+/S-+6.-8*$h-]Khu#*!+ !"9@,7E> !"i67 !+i!+
!"//-W(6.0 !" ,7Ep-+0 !+,V!+&(-80)"!"6.!"\1,7:KL67u{**-M02!+<!+&dH(CD(-tKLu!+&!"&&(*)D6.!"67-8 ^6.9Q(
H&*,7ED6.(=Z *R#X-83!+6.(&u!"L,7!+ /-86No*OQs#X+$1,.* 5 1 1 : kO
|',. -ZH1&(*Q('3H1,.,(oEI/S-+(6.$ ! 9 : 9!+c! 7<9R&6N 67\1H67-8ZK67 &*=+*-+9S9@*&(-80 679Kh'0 !"C+ Õ
(U!+&&6.67-8!+,!+H02/167-8G!" 1 !+ & 9 !" 6.&(*/S&(3*OkPR6.T!+H0 /67-8G6.n9@!+,N +$(!+nKh ![)+
*M!"\S-[)++$(\S#*!+H('Kh- &16gf *#Xy -+9xy/-+/S-+67-8h!"U02!+H(&i-8G(-+//S-86. 9@-8,.&h-+9m! ¤ y
9@-8,.&?#X-8y)e!+,N6.&!"67-8 Oc¢I6N,.,$+('!+H02/167-8 -+9%6.1&(*/S&(#XR6.c/-+\1!"\5,7E202-+!"/1/-+/6N!" R9x-+ ¤ y9@-8,.&
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#X-802/1,.* ,7EG-8Dy-[)+*,N!"//16.(=Ab!+&%$1!+R!+,7Kn!EDL6.M#X-8y)"!+,.6.&!"67-8%$((U *R!"Z(-8(y-[)+*,.!"/1/16.(=3;O
@v<Z#;(-8 ¤ y9@-8,.&M#X-8 y)e!+,.6N&!"67-8G\S#*!+H U67n=867)+R,.!"=+' R *R!+&M&6N@-86Noh !+6.6.=a *OQPR(
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!+6.16.(= *T(,7/G0 !"C+ 1 !+& 9 02-+'6.&(*/S&(3*OV|&!KR\5!+#C$3-+9%#X-8H(; +$I6NQ!"T(,.!"6.(=
!+,7=+-+6.0 `!"J !+6N(&-82 !+6.16.(= *Q!+,795-+95R67{*J-+9(J !+6.6N(='*`9x-+cKL6.#; $8H&(* ¡ H 67-8
$KTZ **Cr(67J,.!"67)+ /S*9@-+0 !+#X+O
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6.0?!" T-+95(n)e!";6.!+#XnKT!+k)+*E:(-86.E+$8!+&a-+9x {**-(Ok6.0 6.,N!"V67H1!"67-8*$"-+(*`1!)+J9@-8H&:!"
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$6.Z(iH0 -+9 6.&(*/S& oU!+1&(-80 )"!"6.!"\5,7 !+#;>1!)D6.(=u! 7<9i&6. 6.\1H(67-8KL67 Õ &*=+*i-+9
!
9@*&(-80MOT E( H0 0?!"67-8d/-+/S*Ep-+9n( 7<9&6N 67\1H67-8 $6.U02!+ $q!+Z! 7<92&6. 67\1H(6.-8
KL67 &(*=+*a-+9R9@*&(-80MOPR6.:,.!+ 6.&(*/S&(1#X !+H02/167-8^6NZ!+,. -9b!+,. +$`\S#*!+H i!+# ¤ y9@-8,.&
#X-8 y)e!+,.6N&!"67-86.k#X-802/1H( &9@-80(J!+0 J !+6.6.=&!"!DO`s-[KT*)+*$3XWD/S*6.023!+,I Q-[KT&!"
6.J6NJ( ,7!+ L/-+\1,70?!"6.#'-+9U)e!"6.-8HR6.&*/1&(#X!+H02/167-8nH&(*;,7EI6N(=: W ¤ #X)M *O
jk6.!+,N,7E+$1 -rH c FIH!"67-8 Õ ;$KT0:H'0 !"C+a(!+H0 /67-8A1!"(a)"!"6.!+#X: 6.0 !" !"
6.&*/1&(o2-+9 (1 1 O PL6.?0aH ?\!+H0 &@!"(*G!+/-t)+&!+r6.uHH1!+, &6. 67\1H( 6.-8
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(d02!+-+9Z!+,.,-+9 (-+\1 *)+&4&67f*1#X*O |'r&6.#*H1 & !"\S-t)++$L(d02!+4&6gfS*#X &i -
-[)+* 6.0 !" :( H(U&6gfS*#X+$D\S#*!+H U-+9V( ,.!+#CG-+9V6N&(*/S&(#X\S*zKT*M( &6gfS*3n9x-8,.&1h-+9
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2
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Observed t value
•••
•
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•••••
••••
•
••••••
••••••
0
••••••
•
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•
•••••••
•••
-2
•••
•••••
•••••••
•••••
••
• ••
•
-4
• • • •
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Predicted t value (based on quantile)
jk67=8H( ¤ ¡ ¡ /5,7-+U#X-802/1!"6.=?(2&6. 67\1H(6.-8M-+9 $ Õ

)"!+,.H('-+9 -M(:)"!+,.H('(*E(-8H,N&u![)+
H&*:! &6. 6.\1H(67-8dKL6. &*=+*a-+9R9x*&(-80MOu|',.,c/-86NoZKh-8H,N&]9b!+,.,Q-8^(r,.6.( 5P0679J(
&6. 67\1H(6.-8h0?!"#(& O
v467A!+,.,S-+9k(Z!+H0 /67-8*$DKT #*!+A/1,NH(=26.r - cFIH!"67-8^ T - -+\!+6. O Õ

lm*:H H0 0 !"6.{*2(?!+H102/67-8U!+1&]!"//-[WD6N0 !"67-8 6No)+-8,7)+&^6.<6NU&(*67)"!"67-8 OGj6. *$%KT
02/1,.-[Er(Z(-+;0 !+,%!"//-W(6.0 !"67-8M -i( \16N(-80 6.!+, &6N 67\1H67-8 Oc¢I#X-8& $5Kh:!+H02Z/1!+67KL6N U6.&(Xy
/S&(#X-+9 1 !+& 9 9@-+ !+,., O2PR67;& $5KT?!+H0226.&(*/S&#X:\S*Kh*< ! *O2jk6.!+,.,7E+$SKT
!+H102 6.&(*/S &#X\S *Kh*p(ZIH02*!" -+L!+1&A&((-80 6N!" -+R-+9( !"6. 6.#"O
LKn!E? -*)"!+,.H!" '( W ¤ #X)G !"6. 6.#XWD/*;6.023!+,.,7E26.h -0?!"C+'!FIH!+o6N,7XyzF3H1!+o6.,.R/1,7-+ ¡ ¡
/1,7-+;;$!+J(-[KLM6NGjk67=8H ¤ OhPR( ¡ ¡ /1,7-+J(-tKL $ Õ
#X-802/5H( &r)e!+,NH(n-+9m( W ¤ #X)r !"6. 6.#9@-+R!
#*!+ KL(*L('3H,N,13E3/S-+(6Nc6.cCI(-tKLi -!"/1/1,7EA@(# Z!+ C?!+n&(#X6.\& \,.-[K';O`PV-:=+(*;!"
! ¡ ¡ /1,7-+*$`( $ Õ )"!+,.H(a!"M -+ &!+&!+67=8&^FIH!+36.,7Mb6O+O7$Q(6.:!+C_6.^(G-+ &,.6.
&67)D6.&(&A\3E $Õ ;O PRp(6.3)+* a#*H0:H1,.!"67)+ &6. 6.\1H(67-8]@KL6. &(*=+*-+9`9@*&(-80iL6.'H &
-2#X-802/1H( 9@-+n!+#AFIH!+36.,7+$I()"!+,.H('!"J! yz&16. 67\5H( & !+1&(-80 )"!"6.!"\5,7KT-8H,.&G![)+'!"C+p679%67
!+&d!+&!"!+(CO PR6NL)"!+,.H(a\S#X-802( 0_#X-I-+&6.!" +$ !+&(-+6.=86.!+,V)e!+,.H \S#X-802
#X-I-+&6.!" +O`r-+(*RKT-+&$(9x-+R!+#;A-+\1*)+&M/S-86.3*$I\5!+ &r-8A67n-+&16.!+,/S-86767-8GKL6716.? $ Õ
/S-86.3*$%KT?#*!+_#X-802/5H( KL!"Z)e!+,.H 67Z(-8H1,.&d!)+G!+&]679T( $ Õ
/S-86.oU1!+&<\S*< H,7Ed&(![KL
9@-80! &6N 67\1H67-8 O%9 ( $ Õ /-86NoT!)+U! &6. ;67\1H(67-8K67 &(*=+*T-+9%9@*&(-80A$3(G(*E
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(-8H1,.&r,.67-8M( ,.6N( 5O0VOQPR(B1=8H((-[KLL!9@!+67;,7E =+-I-I&rB5J - ( ,.6.+Oks-[KT*)+*$!"R(U!+6.,.n-+9
(Z&16. 67\5H(67-8 $ 6.J-802*KL!"L0 -+ #X-8 *)"!"67)+:!+A67R-8H,.&G\S+O
H'#;(-86.#Xa-+9`B1)+*/1,.6N#*!"67-8R-+9h#X-8y)"!+,.6.&!"6.-8p6.'(-+!"\167 !"E+O QWI/1,.-+!" -+EA H&167(-[KT&
!"MH6N(=]9@*Kh*r-+A02-+!+B1)+*/1,.6N#*!"67-8?6N#X!+ &(d6. C-+9aPcEI/Sp *-+O |/-867\1,7
XWD/1,.!+!"67-8 9x-+h6.`6.`1!"c(*!"RzKT-:#X-80 /*6N(= /-+\5,70 *OVv67?9x*KT*c*/1,.6.#*!"67-81*$+(L(-86N R6.
(n02!+H(02o-+9( ! \S#X-802 -8H(\1,7-802+OVv467a02-+T*/1,.6N#*!"67-8*$t(T,N!+#C -+916N&(*/S&(#X
!+02-8(=( ! T\S#X-802n -8H\1,7 -802+O`v4(*(*TB1)+U6.T(\S T)e!+,NH(9@-+n(U3H10Z\S*T-+9m*/1,N6.#*!"67-8
6.J!+p-+/MFIH( 6.-8 O
PR16.%#X-802/1,.* V-8HV&(#X;67/67-8U-+9(cB1)+T !"6. 6N#*!+,o -+9((T3H1,.,83E3/S-+(6N%!"VzKT-,.!"6.(=
!+,7=+-+6.0 T!)+U(!+02*-+T;!" '-8r!a=867)+G/S-+/1H,.!"6.-8u@\1!+ &r-8r!!+02/5,7L-+9V!"n/-+/5H,.!"67-85;O
: qTATS QQ%A c'

v<(-[K H(p -G!+uXWI/S*6N02o!+,m*)e!+,NH!"67-8A-+9c( B5)+:02*(-D&*OPR( /1H/S-8 U-+9Q(a6.0aH,.!"67-8
Kn!+R -?02!+H( (Z/-+\1!"\16N,.67zE?-+9PhE3/SUn*-+L-+9 !+,7=+-+670?*Oc| PcEI/SUT*-+R-D#*#*H(JKLM(
IH,.,Q3E3/S-+(6.Z6.: H(db6O+O7$`(*r6.:(-&16gf*#X?\S*zKT*>(?Kh-<,7!";6.(=p!+,.=+-+670 U!+&^(
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PV- H&(*; !+&( ]/1-+\1,70 $67A6.MH1 *9@H1, -6.(C!"\1 !+#X,7E!"\S-8H(M(<\S![)I6.-+M-+9,.!"6.(=
!+,7=+-+6.0 *O
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T-86.&(*!i/S-+/1H1,.!"67-8u-+9 &1!"!r/-86No'!+&<H(/1/-8Z!"U( !+6N6.(=G * 67{*6.BWD& OZPR(9@-+

! =86.)+u,7!";6.(= !+,7=+-+;670:$S&(XB5( h<0 n -G\Z(Z/-+\1!"\16.,.6.zEG!"L(a#*,.!+67B1*L/-I&H1#X&M\3E

KL(A !+6.(&M-8!2!+1&(-80 ,7E3yz&(![KLr !+6.6N(= *:@-+9`(ZBWD&A67{*tJKL6.,.,S0 6.#*,.!+679@E 0VOh9 T<0S 5 $
( 06. !+,.KT![EI:#X-+#X,7E]#*,.!+6gB1&d\IE#*,N!+6gB1*;U/-D&H#X&d\IE :O?9 <0S 5 Õ $m 06.U!+,7Kn!ED
(-tKLa(M02!+H(&^)"!+,.H(a-+9[ <0 U9@-+2!/-+/5H,.!"67-8_-+9 3$ /S-86.o:KL67^ /S#Xa -

0 6.#*,.!+6gB5& O
jk67=8H(
( !(O &(#*6N67-8 * !+,7=+-+6.0 ¡ H6.,N!+ $ Õ U !+6.(&-8d!+1&(-80 ,7E3yz&(![KLp ;!+6.6.(=r *-+9 Õ
XW(!+02/1,7*OPR(2/S-86.3'Kh*? -+ &d\IEu67U )"!+,.H(*O67)+d )"!+,.H(*$mKh #X-8H,N&<6.0aH,.!" (
\S!)D67-+n-+9 !(O -8M!!+&(-80?,7E?&(![KLr R *J-+9V/S-86.on\IE?!"CD6.(=!+#;A/S-86.3 0p!+1&M0 6.#*,.!+679@EI6.=
67`KL6./-+\1!"\16N,.67zEt <0S;OQPR16.Kh-8H,N&2(-+`XWD!+#X,.Ea*/-D&H#Xn(R\S![)I67-+`-+9 !(O $3\#*!+H1 L67`!+H102
!"(20 6.#*,.!+6gB#*!"67-8p*-+0 !+&(\IE !(O !"26.1&(*/S&(3L9@-+'!+#;< UXW(!+02/1,7+$ K(*!+6.
9b!+#Xi(d#*,.!+6gB5#*!"67-8?-+9 &!"!^/-86Noi!"r!"u#*,7-8u -+=+*(*MK6.,.,n & -^\S67=8,7E#X-+,N!" & O
s-[KT*)+*$V16.6.0aH,.!" & !(O /-I#X&H:KT-8H,.&d![)+ (2!+02 ![)+*!"=+?*-+U!" ?!+(2!+, !(O
!+,7=+-+6.0M$!+&M67JK6.,.,XWD167\167J!26.0?6.,.!"J&(*=+* -+9k)"!"6.!"67-8r9@-80 -8 !+&(-80 ;6.!+, - ( XWI*O

v< #*!+M6N0:H,N!" ',7!";6.(=!+,7=+-+6710 cK67G)e!"6.-8HT/-+/S*67h\3Ei&(XB56.=:!/S-+/1H,.!"6.-8 -+9m/S-86.3
!+&r!+67=86.(=!a)e!+,NH( t< 0Sc -2!+#A/-86No*Ok9%KhKn!+oR!,7!";6.(=a!+,7=+-+670 -2![)+ 67=8G)e!";6.!+#X+$
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!+&-80})e!";6.!"\1,7+OV9KhLKT!+3QzKT-:,.!"6.(=!+,7=+-+6.0 ` -Z1!)+R(!+02J*-+c!" R-82(L/-+/5H,.!"67-8 $
KTZ#*!+AH(!"R(:!)+*!"=+a)e!+,NH(-+9 R-[)+*'(U/S-+/1H,.!"6.-8W 6.J !+02 9@-+R\S-+A!+,7=+-+6.0 *O
Z-8H H1&67*$eKhTKn!+o & -#X-8 H1#X6N0:H,N!" &:,7!";6.(=R/1-+\1,70 %!"kKh-8H,N& /-t)I6N&(h
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!+&-80 )"!"6.!"67-8%)"!"6.!"6.-8?H,76.(=Z9x-80 (#-86.#X-+9% J&!"! *J!+&i)e!";6.!"67-8iH,76N(= 9@-80
(a#(-86.#Xa-+9` !+6.16.(= **OJv<67=8(-+&A(a6.H(Z-+9Q#*,.!+6gB#*!"67-8A(-86.+O h#*!+H1 a6.L!ef#X ;!+6.6.(=
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Õ
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
epsilon(x) for C4.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Data Point x
jk67=8H
cu!+H(&M)"!+,.H(R-+9 C E <0 T9@-+!/S-+/1H,.!"6.-8i-+9 &!"!2/S-86.3*O
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j(-+L n-+9VPhE3/S'Q*-+[$IKTU&(67=8&iKh- *n-+9 T)"!+,.H(* T<0Sc9@-+R!+,7=+-+670 !+1& R<0Sc9@-+
!+,7=+-+6.0 'O8v<L !"\5,.6.(&2! !"=+*Q*-+c!" c!+& #-8 R-8,7EazKT-Z&6N 6.#Xk)"!+,.H(` -ZH1 J9x-+ h<0

!+& J< 0 ; 1 !+1& OUv<=+(*!" &<!G/S-+/1H,.!"67-8p-+9c/S-86.3*Oj(-+U(aB1 !+,79`-+9c(/-+/5H,.!"67-8 $
KT'!+67=8(& 9 T< 0S
5 9 1 n!+1& R< 0S 5 *O`j(-+J('0 !+6.16.(=:1!+,79 -+9%('/S-+/1H,.!"67-8%$8Kh*)+*; &G6.

!+&d!+6.=8(& < 0
5 9 !+& < 0 5 9 1 *OUjk67=8H( !M(-tKL'6.'#X-8DB1=8H(;!"67-8p-+9 ')e!+,NH(*OPR(67{*
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!+,7(-8H=8MKh:!+,. - 6.3)+ 67=8!" & 5
A
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A

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$S!+& 5
A
! O A
$
Õ!
0.25
0.2
Algorithm B
0.15
epsilon(x)
0.1
0.05
Algorithm A
1 N/2 N
Data Point x
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A A
Õ
0.3
0.25
Probability of Type 1 Error
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
McNemar Prop Test Resampled t Xval t 5x2cv t
j 67=8H( hQ-+\1!"\56.,.67E -+9`PcEI/SUh*-+R9x-+L!+# !"6. 6.#*!+,% *OhPRU9x-8H(!+&e !+#X3R\1!";J9x-+L!+#u

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Õ
0.25
Probability of Type 1 error 0.2
Resampled t
0.15
0.1
0.05
Xval t
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Number of replications
jk67=8H(ITc-+\1!"\16.,N67zEi-+9kPhEI/ZT*-+L9@-+L(:!+02/5,7& !+1&A( 3. y9@-8,.&u#X-8y)"!+,.6.&!" &

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Õ
0.2
0.15
Probability of Type 1 Error
0.1
0.05
0
McNemar Prop Test Xval t 5x2cv t
jk67=8H( 3LPhE3/SaJ*-+!" 9@-+9x-8H( !"6.6.#*!+, *OUPR(a(*a\1!"KL676NA!+#d #X-+ /S-8&

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( ;H( PcEI/SUh*-+R!" +O
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nH(U679c-8+=+-8!+,Q6.' -A&(* #X KL*(*(* 6.!r&6gfS*#X\S*zKT*<zKT-A,7!"16.(=r!+,7=+-+670?*$S(
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0.65
0.6
0.55
Error rate
C4.5
λ=0.1759
0.5
λ=0.3500
λ=0.5420
0.45
NN (λ=1)
0.4
150 200 250 300
Training set size
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¤
0.6
Xval t
0.5
Probability of Rejecting H0
0.4
0.3
5x2cv t
McNemar
0.2
Prop Test
0.1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Difference in performance between C4.5 and NN
j 67=8H( -[KT*U-+9Q9@-8H( !"6. 6.#*!+, -8(" ?!+ COUPR((-+67{*-83!+,V!eW(6.'/1,7-+(3H10Z\S*

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-+9m'!+0 67{*'!+ ^&(;!KLG9@-80 ('!+02/-+/5H,.!"67-85 (9@-+H1!" ,7E+$((-8('-+9%(U !"6. 6N#*!+,5
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JÕ
¤
0.8 Xval t
0.7
Probability of Rejecting H0
0.6
0.5
0.4 5x2cv t
McNemar
0.3
Prop Test
0.2
0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
j 67=8H(
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Probability of Rejecting H0 0.14
0.12
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0
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Die Tte Rich 1998

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Die Tte Rich 1998

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Probability of Type 1 error 0.2

jk67=8H(ITc-+\1!"\16.,N67zEi-+9kPhEI/ZT*-+L9@-+L(:!+02/5,7&   !+1&A( 3. y9@-8,.&u#X-8y)"!+,.6.&!" &

9@-+\S-+A:!+02/1,7&  '!+&u(a#X-8y)"!+,.6.&!" &   *OL-+6.#X!"(a#X-8y)"!+,.6.&!" &   

QQ% c'  ;1S  T

jk67=8H( 3LPhE3/SaJ*-+!" 9@-+9x-8H( !"6.6.#*!+,   *OUPR(a(*a\1!"KL676NA!+#d #X-+ /S-8&

  & & &#) + )

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jk67=8H( clm!"6.=a#*H()+R6.3 */S-8,.!" &r\S*zKT* (! O  !+&M' 9@-+R(U/5H(/S-8 '-+9V02!+H6.(=/S-[KT*O

9@-+ !(O  !+&G9x-+R'@K67M!+MH&!+0?!"=+&G&16. !+#XU02* 6N#[;OQj6.=8H( (-[Kn(U#*!+,.67\!" &M,.!"6.(=

!"\1,7Z -i-+\1*)+Z6NL6.A-802:6N0:H,N!" &p&!"!?XWI/S*6.0 oLKL(* Z*-+!" 5H#XH!" &p\S*zKT*

j 67=8H(  -[KT*U-+9Q9@-8H( !"6. 6.#*!+,  -8(" ?!+ COUPR((-+67{*-83!+,V!eW(6.'/1,7-+(3H10Z\S*

Õ O !+& O  Ocv<'&6N&?(-+h-+\1 *)+67h&1H(6.(= !+3E -+9 -8H(TXWD/*;6.023c-8i!+,.6.6.#R&!"!DO`v46.,.&?)e!"6N!"67-8

PR( !"6N(=r/-86No9x-+U6NL/1!"/S*Kn!+ ¡ H( 67-8 67)+dzKT-A,7!"16.(=i!+,.=+-+670   !+1& $q!+&<!

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Probability of Rejecting H0 0.14

!+L*)+*Z!+RU/-+\1,70K67r( !+02/1,7&   *O

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