04/09/2022 16:15 Guest post: Refining the remaining 1.

5C ‘carbon budget’ - Carbon Brief

This guest post is by:

Dr Kasia Tokarska (https://www.kasiatokarska.com/), a postdoctoral researcher at the ETH

Zurich (https://ethz.ch/en.html) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
(https://iac.ethz.ch/).

Dr Damon Matthews (https://www.concordia.ca/faculty/damon-matthews.html), a professor and

Concordia research chair in climate science and sustainability at Concordia University
(https://www.concordia.ca/).

The remaining “carbon budget” specifies the maximum

amount of CO2 that may be emitted to stabilise warming at
a particular level – such as the Paris Agreement
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-the-paris-
agreement-on-climate-change)’s 1.5C target.

Carbon budgets (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-the-ipcc-1-5c-report-

expanded-the-carbon-budget) have played an important role in national and
international climate policy – not least being a key rationale for adopting net-zero

emissions targets.

Yet, there are many sources of uncertainty that make it challenging to estimate the

remaining carbon budget in real-world conditions – especially for the most

ambitious mitigation targets.

In our new study, published in Nature’s Communications Earth and Environment

(https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9) journal, we present an

integrated approach to quantifying these uncertainties and incorporating them into

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estimates of the remaining carbon budget.

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For the 1.5C target, we estimate a range of 230-440bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) from

2020 onwards, which corresponds to a two-in-three to one-in-two chance of not

exceeding 1.5C of global warming since pre-industrial times

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/challenge-defining-pre-industrial-era).

This is equivalent to between six and 11 years of global emissions, if they remain at

current rates and do not start declining.

However, we emphasise that the remaining carbon budget is not a single number,

but rather a distribution that reflects the probability of meeting a target – that is,

the greater the chance of meeting the budget, the smaller amount of CO2 that can
be emitted.

There is also an approximately one-in-six chance that the remaining carbon budget

for 1.5C has already been exceeded.

If emissions decline, the budget would last longer. In the context of net-zero
targets, our 230-440bn tonne range would be consistent with a scenario where CO2

emissions decrease linearly from 2019 levels to net-zero by between 2032 and

2042.

The 7% drop in emissions caused by Covid lockdowns in 2020

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-carbon-project-coronavirus-causes-record-
fall-in-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2020) is in line with this rate of decrease. This

emphasises that it is more important than ever that economic recovery efforts

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/coronavirus-tracking-how-the-worlds-green-

recovery-plans-aim-to-cut-emissions) are targeted to drive emissions down further

to keep the 1.5C target within reach.
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Geophysical basis of the remaining carbon budget

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The remaining carbon budget originates from the approximately linear relationship

(https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08047) between cumulative CO2

emissions and the warming of the Earth that they cause. In other words, a tonne of
CO2 emitted today, yesterday or 50 years ago will each lead to broadly the same

amount of warming.

(Despite being expressed as the remaining amount of CO2 only, carbon budgets also

take into account warming contributions from non-CO2 forcing

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-a-new-approach-for-understanding-the-

remaining-carbon-budget), which this piece will explore.)

The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and temperature change is

known as the “Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions” (TCRE) and is

a robust predictor of CO2-induced warming across a wide range of emissions levels

and pathways.

In the chart below – from our recent Nature Geoscience

(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00663-3) perspective – TCRE is

shown by the straight black line, highlighting the direct relationship between CO2

emissions and warming.

However, we do not live in a CO2-only world. There are lots of different factors

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-a-new-approach-for-understanding-the-

remaining-carbon-budget) that affect this relationship – shown by the coloured

arrows in the chart – such as non-CO2 emissions and the response of the carbon

cycle to rising CO2 (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-carbon-cycle-

feedbacks-could-make-global-warming-worse).

These factors make it more challenging to estimate the TCRE from observed
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quantities in a real-world setting.

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Different factors affecting the approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative CO2
emissions: (1) physical climate and carbon cycle process that affect the slope of the TCRE line (solid coloured
arrows); (2) additional geophysical processes that could cause deviations from the linear TCRE relationship (solid
coloured lines); and (3) processes involving non-CO2 emissions and their effect on climate, which in general
cause additional warming relative to TCRE-predicted temperature increase (dashed coloured lines). Source:
Matthews et al. (2020 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00663-3)).

As a first step in our new framework, we estimated the TCRE as a function of three

quantities that describe the current state of the climate system, taking into account
uncertainties in their estimates:

1. The observed human-caused warming to date;

2. Total historical CO2 emissions;

3. The fraction of observed temperature increase that is caused by CO2 compared to

non-CO2 emissions.

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Our best estimate of the TCRE is 0.44C per 1,000GtCO2 emitted, which is similar to
the estimate used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(https://www.ipcc.ch/)’s (IPCC) special report on 1.5C

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-ipccs-special-report-on-climate-

change-at-one-point-five-c) (SR15), which was published in 2018.

However, the range across all possible values of our TCRE estimate – known as the

“uncertainty distribution” – is considerably narrower than that assessed by the

IPCC in the SR15 report and the fifth assessment report (AR5), published in 2013-

14. You can see this in the chart below, which shows our TCRE estimate (blue line)

and that from AR5/SR15 (grey line). We are able to narrow the TCRE by making use

of updated observational constraints, which are able to more clearly rule out both

higher and lower TCRE values.

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Distribution of the TCRE, reflecting uncertainty in historical warming, cumulative CO2 emissions and non-CO2
forcing. The best estimate is 0.44C per 1000 Gt CO2 emitted, with a 5-95% range of 0.32 to 0.62C per
1,000GtCO2 (blue line). The assessed TCRE distribution from AR5 is shown by the grey line. The grey shaded
rectangle shows the unphysical regime of negative TCRE values (i.e. cooling per unit of carbon emitted, which is
impossible). Source: Matthews et al. (2021 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9)).

Assessing the remaining carbon budget

Building on our estimate of the TCRE, we further incorporated uncertainty in two

other key parameters to estimate the distribution of the remaining carbon budget:

4. The unrealised warming (https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/)

caused by emissions that are already in the atmosphere.

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5. The uncertainty associated with the climate system’s response to non-CO2

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emissions, such as methane (https://www.carbonbrief.org/scientists-concerned-

by-record-high-global-methane-emissions) and nitrous oxide
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/nitrogen-fertiliser-use-could-threaten-global-

climate-goals);

Combined with the three quantities described above, these five parameters
encompass all major sources of geophysical uncertainty affecting the remaining
carbon budget.

Shown in the chart below, our best estimate of the remaining carbon budget for

1.5C is 440GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230-670GtCO2 that reflects
a 67 to 33% chance of not exceeding the temperature target. The grey rectangle
indicates that we find a 17% (one-in-six) chance that the remaining carbon budget

for 1.5C has already been exceeded.

These values are smaller than those reported by the IPCC 1.5C report
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-the-ipcc-1-5c-report-expanded-the-
carbon-budget) because our distribution incorporates the effect of uncertainties

from non-CO2 forcing, historical warming and historical emissions that were
assessed separately by SR15, and were not included in the main SR15 remaining

budget estimates.

By accounting for these additional uncertainty sources, we have produced a carbon

budget estimate that incorporates all of the most relevant uncertainties and is
constrained by observations, and is therefore a more robust estimate of the

remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.

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Distribution of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. Our best estimate is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a
33-67th percentile range of 230 to 670 GtCO2. The distribution incorporates geophysical uncertainty associated
with historical warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, current and future non-CO2 forcing, and the unrealised
warming from past emissions. Source: Matthews et al. (2021 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-
00064-9)).

Accounting for socioeconomic scenario uncertainty

While the scientific uncertainty reflects incomplete understanding of physical and

biological processes in the climate system, it is also necessary to consider further

the different choices that society may make that affect future CO2 and other types
of emissions.

For example, a key “socioeconomic” uncertainty that affects the size of the Privacidade - Termos

remaining carbon budget is the future pathway of non-CO2 emissions.

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In our framework, we treat socioeconomic uncertainties separately. Socioeconomic

uncertainties are less well suited to being quantified using a formal distribution, as
we have done above, because they depend in large part on human mitigation

decisions.

Instead, we use emission scenarios from the SR15 scenario database

(https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/#/login?redirect=%2Fworkspaces)
(that were specifically designed to meet the Paris Agreement target) to estimate the

range of plausible combinations of CO2 vs non-CO2 forcing at the time when net-
zero CO2 emissions are reached. This approach allows us to explore different non-

CO2 emission trajectories for net-zero CO2 scenarios that are consistent with
reaching the Paris Agreement target.

As the chart below shows, this scenario variation is enough to shift the distribution
of the remaining 1.5C carbon budget (blue line) by 170GtCO2 in either direction.

That is to say, high future non-CO2 emissions (purple line) could reduce the budget
by 170GtCO2, while low future emissions (green line) could increase it by the same
amount.

Effect of socioeconomic scenario uncertainty on the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. Differences in future
non-CO2 forcing caused by different emission scenarios have potential to shift the distribution of the remaining
carbon budget by 170GtCO2 in either direction. Source: Matthews et al. (2021
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Path to net-zero
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The small size of the remaining carbon budget emphasises the need for net-zero
CO2 emissions targets at the international, national

(https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-uk-becomes-first-major-economy-
to-set-net-zero-climate-goal) and even subnational level.

This is, perhaps, the most pressing policy implication of carbon budgets – that to
stabilise global temperatures at any level, the international community needs to

eliminate net CO2 emissions.

The figure below, for example, illustrates how quickly global CO2 emissions need to

fall in order to stay within the 1.5C (blue line) and “well below” 2C (yellow) budgets.
The remaining carbon budget for 1.5C and well-below 2C are consistent with global

CO2 emissions reaching net-zero before 2040 and 2060, respectively.

The dark red line shows the estimated trend of global emissions before the

coronavirus crisis. However, emissions between 2019 (orange star) and 2020 (purple
star) actually dropped by 7% (https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-carbon-project-

coronavirus-causes-record-fall-in-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2020). This is
consistent with the annual rate of emission decrease required to achieve the 1.5C
target.

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Timeline to net-zero CO2 emissions to remain within the 1.5C (blue) and “well below” 2C (yellow) carbon
budgets. Stars indicate global CO2 emissions for 2019 (orange) and 2020 (purple), and the dark red line shows
the expected path of global emissions before the coronavirus crisis. Source: Adapted from Matthews et al. (2020
(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00663-3)).

The way forward

To better inform this overall policy goal, scientists need to continue working to
decrease the uncertainty around the remaining budgets for the most ambitious
global temperature targets. This involves both improving understanding of
uncertain processes, as well as reporting our choices and assumptions in order to
calculate remaining carbon budgets in a consistent, clear and transparent way.

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Another policy question is whether the global remaining carbon budget could – or
should – be allocated to individual nations or other entities like corporations or

municipalities.

“Fairness principles” – illustrated in the figure below – present a substantial

challenge in allocating the (already small) remaining carbon budget among different
countries in an equitable way.

For example, any national allocation of the global budget requires consideration of
each country’s ability to decrease emissions and their responsibility for the past
emissions – as well as the level of equity needed to justify a given allocation.

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Illustration of the fairness principles required in deciding how to share the global remaining carbon budget
among nations. Source: Matthews et al. (2020 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00663-3)).

Ensuring that the sum of all national emissions targets do not exceed the remaining
carbon budget will require international cooperation and oversight to strengthen
existing national commitments and align future target setting with the best
available science.

Thus, there is a need for scientists to work together with both social scientists and

policymakers to communicate the implications of the remaining carbon budgets in

a way that can help improve and strengthen national climate policies.

From a societal point of view, it is important to see the remaining carbon budget as
a global limit on emissions, representing a collective effort that we all need to
contribute to achieving.

All countries have a role to play in this collective goal, and only with concerted
near-term effort by all of us will we retain any reasonable chance of meeting the
temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

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