Sliding Displacement of Flexible Earth Slopes Subject

to Near-Fault Ground Motions

Jian Song, S.M.ASCE1; and Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, M.ASCE2

Abstract: A fully coupled simplified method that incorporates soil nonlinearity is used to conduct sliding-block analysis of slopes subjected to
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near-fault pulse-like and nonpulse-like ground motions. The effects of the ground motion pulse on the computed sliding displacements are in-
vestigated, and the efficiency of various ground motion intensity measures for predicting the sliding displacement of slopes is evaluated. It is
shown that the slope is expected to have larger displacements over shorter time intervals when near-fault ground motions have pulse-like char-
acteristics. Results also indicate that for cases in which the natural period of a slope is close to the period of the pulse of a recorded ground
motion, an equivalent wavelet pulse appropriately represents the displacement response of slopes. Predictive models are developed for the slid-
ing displacement of near-fault ground motions using spectral acceleration and peak ground velocity as predictive variables. In addition, it is
shown that for certain cases displacements can be predicted using simplified pulse parameters and simplified wavelet pulses. The developed
models can be incorporated into probabilistic seismic demand analysis for slopes located near active faults. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-
5606.0001233. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: Displacement model; Non-rigid sliding; Near-fault motions; Equivalent wavelet pulses; Probabilistic seismic demand
analysis (PSDA).

Introduction
The failure of natural and man-made slopes during earthquakes is an
important contributor to seismic hazard. To account for this hazard,
models that estimate the sliding displacement as a function of var-
ious ground motion parameters have been proposed (e.g., Makdisi
and Seed 1978; Ambraseys and Menu 1988; Jibson 2007; Bray and
Travasarou 2007; Saygili and Rathje 2008; Rathje and Saygili 2009;
Lee et al. 2010; Rathje and Antonakos 2011; Hsieh and Lee 2011;
Urzúa and Christian 2013). These estimates have largely been de-
veloped without taking into consideration the special characteristics
of near-fault ground motions. Observations from various earth-
quakes, however, indicate that high seismic demands on structures
result from pulse-type ground motions that occur in the near-fault
region (e.g., Bertero et al. 1978; Wen et al. 2010; Bradley and
Cubrinovski 2011). Pulse-type ground motions that result from
forward-directivity effects typically have large intensities and tend
to drive structures into the nonlinear and inelastic range. The same
effects are expected for natural and man-made slopes. Fig. 1 shows
the landslides triggered in the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008
(Huang and Li 2009). The landslide distribution varies along the
seismic fault, indicating that the occurrence of landslides is probably
related to the features of near-fault ground motions. The charac-
teristics of the slopes are uniform along the fault and are similar to
1
Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji Univ.,
Shanghai 200092, China; formerly, Visiting Scholar, Virginia Tech, 750
Drillfield Dr., Blacksburg, VA 24060.
2
Associate Professor, Charles E. Via, Jr. Dept. of Civil and Environ-
mental Engineering, Virginia Tech, 750 Drillfield Dr., Blacksburg, VA 24060
(corresponding author). E-mail: adrianrm@vt.edu
Note. This manuscript was submitted on March 5, 2014; approved on
September 30, 2014; published online on November 3, 2014. Discussion
period open until April 3, 2015; separate discussions must be submitted for
individual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Geotechnical and
Geoenvironmental Engineering, © ASCE, ISSN 1090-0241/04014110
(16)/$25.00.
those in the entire region (Zhao and Song 2012); hence, the dis-
tribution of landslides in the near-fault region is likely caused by
ground motion effects alone. Moreover, the seismic-induced sliding
of flexible slopes is a nonlinear phenomenon; displacements are
induced simultaneously by the nonlinear response of the sliding
mass and nonlinear stick-slip sliding response along the slide plane.
Because near-fault ground motions are highly nonstationary, the
response of slopes to those types of motions is likely different from
the response of slopes to ordinary ground motions. For these rea-
sons, the effects of near-fault pulses on the seismic response and
permanent displacement of a sliding mass should be explicitly in-
cluded in the prediction of slope displacements in the near-fault
region.
In this paper, the sliding displacement response of slopes subject
to near-fault pulse-like (NF-P) and nonpulse-like (NF-NP) ground
motions is compared. Slopes with different strengths and stiffness
are analyzed. The effectiveness of existing models for predicting the
displacement of slopes subject to NF-P and NF-NP ground motions
is first investigated using a comprehensive database of pulse ground
motions. That database is then used to develop a model for evalu-
ating sliding displacement response to near-fault pulses. An im-
portant result of this research is the observation that, for some special
cases identified in this study, the sliding displacement of slopes
subject to near-fault motions can be predicted using equivalent
wavelet pulses. For those cases, the sliding displacement of slopes
can be computed in terms of simplified pulse parameters, allowing
for a separate, and more adequate, treatment of the sliding dis-
placement in probabilistic seismic demand analyses.
Background
Numerous studies have been conducted to incorporate the effects
of near-fault pulses in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (e.g.,
Abrahamson 2000; Tothong et al. 2007; Shahi and Baker 2011;
Chioccarelli and Iervolino 2013) and to investigate the structural
response to near-fault pulses (e.g., Bertero et al. 1978; Hall et al.

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Fig. 1. Regional distribution of geohazards along the Longmenshan Mountains fault belt in the Wenchuan earthquake (Springer and Bulletin of
Engineering Geology and the Environment, Vol. 68, No. 3, 2009, “Analysis of the geo-hazards triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,
China,” R. Q. Huang and W. L. Li, Fig. 3, with kind permission from Springer Science and Business Media)

1995; Somerville et al. 1997; Mavroeidis et al. 2004; Kalkan and
Kunnath 2006; Luco and Cornell 2007; Gillie et al. 2010; Sehhati
et al. 2011; Champion and Liel 2012). Those studies coincide on
the increased probability of structural damage caused by forward-
directivity effects and on the damaging nature of pulse-type ground
motions. On the other hand, relatively few studies have been fo-
cused on the effect of near-fault pulses on the seismic response of
earth structures (e.g., slopes and dams). Rodriguez-Marek and Bray
(2006) performed seismic site response analyses using near-fault
forward directivity pulse-type motions for typical site conditions
and concluded that nonlinear effects must be taken into account for
that type of motion. Rathje and Bray (2000) examined the effects of
forward directivity motions on the seismic displacement of slopes
and indicated that a fully nonlinear, coupled stick-slip analysis
should be conducted for that type of motion. Garini et al. (2011)
calculated the slippage of a rigid block subject to near-fault seismic
records and idealized pulses and showed that the upper-bound
sliding displacement from near-fault excitation may substantially
exceed the values obtained from some currently available design
charts. They also concluded that no convincingly robust correlation
exists between accumulated slip and the Arias intensity of pulse-
type excitations, which may contradict some of the prevailing
beliefs that emanate from statistical correlation studies (e.g., Jibson
2007). Garini and Gazetas (2013) also developed expressions for
a true upper-bound of the estimate of slippage. In another study,
Davoodi et al. (2013) used FLAC2D to model an embankment dam.
Those authors compared the nonlinear earthquake response of the
embankment dam subjected to near-fault and far-field ground motion
excitations. They concluded that seismic demands of the embank-
ment dam were higher for near-fault than far-field ground motion,
and velocity-related ground motion intensity indexes correlated
better with seismic demand than peak ground acceleration (PGA).
The seismic stability of slopes is commonly evaluated by esti-
mating permanent sliding displacements. This parameter has been
used effectively in seismic design and hazard assessment (e.g.,
Jibson et al. 2000). Sliding displacements were first proposed by
Newmark (1965), who used a rigid sliding block model to assess the
seismic performance of slopes. Since then, some improved methods
considering soil deformation, including decoupled and fully coupled
methods, were proposed (e.g., Makdisi and Seed 1978; Bray and
Rathje 1998; Rathje and Bray 1999, 2000), and a large number of
empirical models are now available to predict the sliding displace-
ment of rigid and flexible sliding masses (e.g., Makdisi and Seed 1978;
Ambraseys and Menu 1988; Jibson 2007; Bray and Travasarou

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J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.

 2007; Saygili and Rathje 2008; Rathje and Saygili 2009; Lee et al.
2010; Rathje and Antonakos 2011; Hsieh and Lee 2011; Urzúa and
Christian 2013). All of those studies were conducted using earth-
quake ground motions without differentiating between pulse-type
and nonpulse-type motions. The goal of this study is to develop
empirical models for predicting nonrigid sliding displacement of
earth slopes resulting from pulse-type motions, which can be also
incorporated into probabilistic assessment of the sliding displacement
of slopes in the near-fault region.
encompass a range of pulse periods from 0.3 to 13.1 s (Fig. 3).
Most of the pulse-like ground motions (near 80%) are recorded in
sites located within 30 km of the fault. There are about 30 pulse-
like ground motions recorded at a closest distance of approxi-
mately 60 km. These ground motions are from a single earthquake in
Taiwan, and based on the source-to-site geometry and site condition

NF-P Ground Motions

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The rigorous development of empirical predictions of the sliding

displacement induced by pulse-like ground motions requires a large
database of that type of record. The lack of a quantitative classifi-
cation scheme for differentiating pulse- and nonpulse-like records
has hindered the compilation of such a database. That shortcoming
was addressed by Baker (2007), who used wavelet analysis to extract
the main pulses from the velocity time history of the fault-normal
component of ground motions. The extracted pulse was then used to
classify the ground motion as pulse-like or nonpulse-like. The period
of the pulse-like record was quantified from the dominant frequency
of the extracted wavelet pulse. That algorithm was then extended to
identify pulses at arbitrary orientations in multicomponent ground
motions (Shahi 2013). More pulse-like records can be identified
because the pulses can be observed in orientations other than the
fault-normal orientation. Shahi (2013) used that procedure to classify
ground motions in the Enhancement of Next Generation Attenuation
Relationships for Western United States (NGA)-West2 database
(Ancheta et al. 2012), and 243 of 8,611 ground motions were classified
as pulse-like. That comprehensive database of pulse-like motions
provides the opportunity to improve the characterization of the effects
of this type of ground motion on the seismic performance of slopes.
In this study, the authors use the Shahi (2013) database of pulse-
like ground motions. Fig. 2 shows the distribution of the pulse-like
records in terms of the causative earthquake magnitude and the
closest distance to the rupture plane. The ground motions were
recorded from 46 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging
from 5.0 to 7.9 and a distance range of 0.1 to 92.7 km. The records

Fig. 2. Distribution of pulse-like ground motions; the size of the Fig. 3. Distributions of closest distance to the ruptured fault (Rrup ), Tp ,
symbols corresponds to the PGV and PGV for pulse-like ground motions in the Shahi (2013) database

© ASCE 04014110-3 J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.

J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.

 information, those records are not considered to be caused by di-
rectivity effects. It is also plausible that some of the observed pulses
are the result of basins or soft-soil effects, rather than forward
rupture directivity (Shahi 2013). However, the effects of pulse-
like ground motions on structures are assumed to be similar re-
gardless of the causative factors (Champion and Liel 2012). Thus,
all pulse-like records can be taken as representative of near-fault
pulse-like ground motions.
To compare the sliding displacement response of slopes to NF-P
and NF-NP ground motions, a subset of NF-P records from the
database is used, and a subset of NF-NP ground motions from the
NGA-West database is also selected. Details of those records will be
included in the following sections.
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Fully Coupled Simplified Method
The Newmark sliding block model has been widely used to capture
the dynamic performance of earth dams, natural slopes, or municipal
solid-waste landfills, and constitutes the basis for numerous models
used to predict seismic-induced displacements of those geotechnical
systems. Most of the available predictive models (e.g., Ambraseys
and Menu 1988; Jibson 2007; Saygili and Rathje 2008; Rathje and
Saygili 2009; Lee et al. 2010; Hsieh and Lee 2011; Urzúa and
Christian 2013) use the Newmark rigid sliding block method, which
does not capture the dynamic response of the deformable sliding
mass during earthquake shaking. Some of the first methods to ac-
count for the deformability of the slope (e.g., Makdisi and Seed
1978) decoupled the computation of the dynamic response of the
sliding mass from the computation of displacements. The decoupled
approach has been shown to be overly conservative or slightly
unconservative depending on the slope properties, and is recog-
nized to be especially inappropriate for slopes undergoing near-
fault ground motions (Rathje and Bray 2000). The alternative is to
use a nonlinear coupled stick-slip method (e.g., Rathje and Bray
2000), which offers a more realistic representation of the dynamic
response of slopes by accounting simultaneously for the occurrence
of nonlinear dynamic response and periodic sliding episodes. Until
now, the only available predictive model based on a simplified
coupled model is the Bray and Travasarou (2007) model.
In this study, the program SLAMMER (seismic landslide movement
modeled using earthquake records) (Jibson et al. 2013), a fully coupled
simplified analysis, is used to estimate seismically induced displacement
in slopes. The seismic response of the sliding mass is captured through an
equivalent-linear approach. The sliding mass was assigned a constant
unit weight of 17:6 kN=m3 and a plasticity index of 30 [following Bray
and Travasarou (2007)]. The yield acceleration (ky ) and natural period
(Ts ) of a sliding mass are typically used to represent the dynamic strength
and stiffness of a slope. Yield acceleration is a function of slope geometry
and soil strength and is typically computed using slope stability analyses.
For the case of a relatively wide potential sliding mass, natural period
can be estimated by the expression Ts 5 4H=Vs , where H is the
average height of the potential sliding mass and Vs is the average
shear wave velocity of the sliding mass. The sliding masses used in our
study consist of one 15-m profile (Vs 5 300 m=s), two 30-m profiles
(Vs 5 400 and 240 m=s), one 60-m profile (Vs 5 340 m=s), and two
100-m profiles (Vs 5 400 and 267 m=s). A rock base (Vs 5 760 m=s)
was modeled below the slip surface. Displacements were computed for
slopes with various combinations of ky values (0:02, 0:05, 0:1, 0:15,
0:2, and 0:3g) and Ts values (0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, and 1.5 s) to the set of
243 pulse-like ground motions described previously. In SLAMMER,
a reference strain is required to define the strain-dependent shear modulus
reduction and material damping ratio curves (Darendeli and Stokoe
2001). The reference strain was obtained by using appropriate values of
confining pressure based on the thicknesses of the profiles. The reference
© ASCE 04014110-4
J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.
strains used are 0.07% for H 5 15 m, 0.09% for H 5 30 m, 0.11%
for H 5 60 m, and 0.14% for H 5 100 m.
Influence of Near-Fault Pulses on Slope
Displacements
Previous studies analyzed the influence of near-fault ground mo-
tion pulses on the seismic response of buildings and geotechnical
structures by comparing the response to near-fault and far-field
ground motions (e.g., Champion and Liel 2012; Davoodi et al.
2013). This process would inevitably exaggerate the effects of
velocity pulses; because of geometrical attenuation of energy, far-
field ground motions inherently have lower intensities, and hence
lower values of ground motion parameters [e.g., PGA, peak ground
velocity (PGV), and other ground motion intensity parameters]. For
this reason alone, near-fault ground motions would result in higher
demand than far-field ground motions, even if the selected near-fault
ground motions do not exhibit pulse-type behavior. To avoid am-
biguity in quantifying the effect of the near-fault pulses, the authors
selected a set of 32 NF-P ground motions from the database
compiled by Shahi (2013) and a set of 32 NF-NP ground motions
from the NGA-West database. These ground motion sets are used in
analyses to identify the effects of the velocity pulse on the seismic
displacement response of slopes. Pertinent information on the
ground motion data are presented in Table 1. All records are rotated
to their fault-normal orientations. The 5% damped acceleration
response spectra for these ground motions are shown in Fig. 4. Fig. 5
plots the histogram of PGA, PGV, and 5–95% shaking duration
(D5e95 ) for the ground motions listed in Table 1. Although the two
sets of data have similar PGA values, PGV values are larger and
5–95% durations are shorter for the NF-P ground motions than for
the NF-NP ground motions.
Computed sliding displacement time histories for slopes with
different values of yield acceleration and natural period subjected to
32 NF-P and 32 NF-NP ground motions are presented in Fig. 6. As can
be seen, sliding displacements from NF-P excitations are higher than
those resulting from NF-NP ground motions. In addition, the largest
permanent displacements for NF-P motions are consistently associ-
ated with fewer cycles of loading, and most intervals of displacement
accumulation occur early in the time history. This is caused by the
presence of one or more high-amplitude velocity pulses at the be-
ginning of the velocity time history in the NF-P records (likely because
of forward directivity effects) which causes the slopes to dissipate
considerable input energy in relatively few plastic cycles. There are
also several cases where large permanent displacements for the NF-P
motions occur later in the record. Those are likely the result of
contributions to displacements from the high-frequency components
of the NF-P motions. The energy dissipation for slopes subjected to
NF-NP motions tends to gradually increase over a longer time interval,
resulting in an incremental buildup of sliding displacements.
The median sliding displacement and median sliding duration
for slopes with various strengths and stiffness from two types of
ground motion are given in Table 2. Results show that for slopes with
the same strength (ky ), the median value of sliding displacement
resulting from NF-P records are much larger than from NF-NP records.
The median sliding duration for NF-P records is shorter than that for
NF-NP records (except the case of ky 5 0:1g and Ts 5 1:0 s, in which
the NF-NP motions induce very small displacements), because most
sliding increments are accumulated during the duration of the pulse.
This phenomenon should be taken into account in seismic hazard
assessment, because higher sliding energy is released over a shorter
duration resulting in higher sliding speed and stronger damage po-
tential of the sliding mass.
J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.
 Table 1. 32 NF-P and 32 NF-NP Ground Motions
NF-P ground motions NF-NP ground motions
NGA record Vs30 Rrup PGV NGA record Vs30 PGV
Number number (m=s) (km) PGA (g) (cm=s) D5e95 (s) Tm (s) Tp (s) number (m=s) Rrup (km) PGA (g) (cm=s) D5e95 (s) Tm (s)
1 1009 392 23.6 0.3 32.4 15.3 0.6 2.4 1082 309 10.1 0.3 25.9 15.6 0.6
2 1013 629 5.9 0.6 77.1 6.5 0.8 1.7 1194 278 19.1 0.2 48.3 33.6 1.3
3 1045 286 5.5 0.4 87.8 7.1 1.6 2.4 1205 492 19.8 0.2 22.0 31.8 0.5
4 1086 441 5.3 0.7 122.7 5.8 1.0 3.1 1231 680 2.7 0.6 74.4 25.6 0.8
5 1244 259 10.0 0.5 85.4 29.0 0.9 4.8 1500 320 17.2 0.1 41.0 34.3 1.0
6 1476 407 28.1 0.2 62.3 19.2 1.0 6.4 1506 401 19.0 0.3 52.6 26.1 0.7
7 1494 461 5.3 0.2 60.9 22.9 0.8 10.5 1507 625 5.3 0.6 44.9 24.6 0.5
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8 150 663 3.1 0.5 51.5 3.4 0.6 1.2 1512 443 8.2 0.4 39.5 25.9 0.4
9 1503 306 0.6 0.8 127.8 28.0 1.1 5.8 1513 364 11.0 0.7 62.7 23.4 0.5
10 1505 487 0.3 0.6 190.7 12.6 1.5 12.2 1533 419 15.0 0.2 46.8 33.7 0.9
11 1510 573 0.9 0.3 88.4 27.0 0.8 5.1 160 223 2.7 0.8 44.3 9.7 0.5
12 1528 418 2.1 0.1 68.4 18.8 0.7 10.0 162 231 10.4 0.3 21.2 11.2 0.5
13 1529 714 1.5 0.1 106.8 16.5 1.3 9.7 164 660 15.2 0.2 18.4 36.0 0.6
14 1548 600 13.1 0.2 78.6 20.7 1.4 9.0 165 275 7.3 0.3 30.5 20.0 0.6
15 159 275 0.7 0.3 54.4 11.5 0.8 2.3 175 197 17.9 0.1 21.5 19.4 0.6
16 170 192 7.3 0.2 54.5 14.9 1.2 4.5 189 339 9.6 0.5 20.2 8.5 0.3
17 173 203 6.2 0.2 46.9 13.0 0.9 4.5 457 350 13.0 0.3 13.4 15.5 0.5
18 178 163 12.9 0.2 41.1 14.2 0.5 5.2 458 222 11.5 0.4 22.3 12.8 0.5
19 179 209 7.1 0.4 77.9 10.2 1.3 4.6 71 602 19.3 0.4 16.9 10.7 0.2
20 180 206 4.0 0.4 91.5 9.4 1.2 4.0 727 362 5.6 0.7 32.6 12.1 0.3
21 181 203 1.4 0.4 111.9 8.6 1.3 3.8 741 376 10.7 0.6 55.9 9.5 0.4
22 182 211 0.6 0.5 108.8 4.8 1.3 4.2 752 289 15.2 0.4 34.6 14.7 0.5
23 184 202 5.1 0.4 59.6 6.9 0.5 5.9 850 345 21.8 0.2 21.2 32.0 0.7
24 185 203 7.7 0.3 55.1 11.8 0.7 4.8 864 379 11.0 0.3 44.0 26.0 0.8
25 451 540 0.5 0.8 62.3 3.1 0.5 1.0 881 345 17.3 0.1 20.4 32.1 0.7
26 459 663 9.9 0.2 35.4 6.9 0.6 1.2 949 298 8.7 0.2 26.2 13.3 0.6
27 568 330 6.3 0.8 62.3 3.8 0.6 0.9 957 822 16.9 0.1 8.1 10.4 0.4
28 766 271 11.1 0.4 45.7 10.1 0.7 1.7 959 268 14.7 0.4 53.7 11.1 0.7
29 77 2,016 1.8 0.8 116.5 7.1 0.5 1.6 974 446 22.2 0.3 11.4 11.2 0.3
30 838 387 34.9 0.1 30.4 17.4 0.9 8.9 978 235 23.1 0.2 25.4 12.7 0.6
31 879 1,369 2.2 0.7 140.3 13.1 0.3 5.1 985 297 29.9 0.2 15.4 17.6 0.6
32 983 526 5.4 0.5 67.4 8.0 0.9 3.5 988 278 23.4 0.2 28.1 14.5 0.6
Median 390 5.4 0.4 67.9 11.7 0.9 4.5 345 14.9 0.3 27.2 16.6 0.6
SD 366 8.0 0.2 35.1 7.1 0.3 3.0 148 6.4 0.2 16.1 8.9 0.2
Note: Vs30 5 average shear wave velocity of top 30 m of the site; Rrup 5 closest distance to the ruptured fault.

Fig. 4. Acceleration response spectra for the selected NF-P and NF-NP ground motions

Evaluation of Ground Motion Intensity Measures for
the Prediction of Slope Displacements
The sliding displacement of earth slopes is a function of the
properties of the slope (e.g., ky and Ts ) and ground motion in-
tensity measures (IMs) such as amplitude, frequency content, and
duration of shaking. The process leading to slope failure and
consequent displacements is complex, and the ground motion
features that control this process cannot be quantified by a single
ground motion parameter, especially for ground motions with
peculiar characteristics such as pulse-like ground motions. In
those cases, a vector of ground motion parameters is needed. An

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Fig. 5. Distributions of (a) 32 selected NF-P and (b) 32 selected NF-NP ground motions in terms of PGA, PGV, and D5e95

ideal set of IMs is both efficient and sufficient (Luco and Cornell
2007). An efficient IM is one that leads to small variability in the
damage measure (DM), which in a slope can be the permanent
sliding displacement. A sufficient IM is one that renders the
prediction of DM independent of the site and source parameters
used to predict the IM themselves (e.g., magnitude, distance). The
goal of this study is to identify the optimal set of IMs for de-
veloping predictive equations of slope displacements for pulse-type
ground motions. To use these predictive equations in probabilistic
seismic demand analysis (PSDA), an additional requirement is that
robust predictive equations must exist for the IMs used in the
equations.
The ground motion IMs considered in this study are PGA, PGV,
peak ground displacement (PGD), pulse period (Tp ), mean period
(Tm ), D5e95 , Arias intensity (Ia ), and acceleration and velocity re-
sponse spectra at different periods. The efficiency of each IM for
predicting the displacement of slopes with different properties was
investigated. Nonlinear regression analyses were performed by
fitting the following second-order polynomials to the calculated
displacements (Saygili and Rathje 2008):

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Fig. 6. Time histories of sliding displacement for slopes with different values of ky and Ts subjected to 32 NF-P and 32 NF-NP ground motions:
(a) ky 5 0:05g, Ts 5 0:2 s; (b) ky 5 0:05g, Ts 5 1:0 s; (c) ky 5 0:1g, Ts 5 0:2 s; (d) ky 5 0:1g, Ts 5 1:0 s

Table 2. Sliding Displacement Parameters for Different Slopes Subjected with the best-fit curves [Eq. (1)]. The values of R2 shown in the figures
to 32 NF-P and 32 NF-NP Ground Motions are a measure of the fit of the polynomial to the computed displacements.
NF-P ground motions NF-NP ground motions It can be seen that PGV is the most efficient IM for pulse-like ground
motions for a weak, stiff slope. The SD is an alternative measure to
Median Median Median Median quantify whether an IM is a good predictor; the computed values of SD of
Slope displacement sliding displacement sliding ɛ [Eq. (1)] for different slopes and different ground motion parameters are
parameter value (cm) duration (s) value (cm) duration (s) given in Fig. 8. For stiff slopes (Ts 5 0:2 s), the SDs associated with
ky 5 0:05g Arias intensity are much higher for pulse motions than for nonpulse
Ts 5 0:2 s 96 5.5 36 11.4 motions (e.g., s 5 0:60 for pulse motions and s 5 0:32 for nonpulse
Ts 5 1:0 s 73 6.1 15 10.8 motions for a slope with ky 5 0:02g), which may contradict some of the
ky 5 0:1g prevailing beliefs that emanate from statistical correlation studies re-
Ts 5 0:2 s 37 5.0 8 8.3 garding the predictive power of Arias intensity, but is consistent with the
Ts 5 1:0 s 16 2.8 2 2.2 findings for a rigid block system (Gazetas et al. 2009). On the other hand,
PGV has a better correlation with displacements than those computed in
previous research (e.g., Bray and Travasarou 2007; Saygili and Rathje
lnðDÞ ¼ a þ b lnðIMÞ þ c½lnðIMÞ2 þ ɛ (1) 2008), especially for the weak slope (e.g., low ky ). For flexible slopes
(Ts 5 1:0 s), PGV is found to be the most efficient IM compared
where D 5 sliding displacements; a, b, c 5 coefficients determined with other period-independent IMs. However, the 5% damped elastic
by the regression; and ɛ 5 normally distributed random variable spectral acceleration at the degraded natural period of the slope
with zero-mean and SD s. This study uses the set of 243 pulse-like (Bray and Travasarou 2007) is found to be the optimal IM for flexible
ground motions from the NGA-West2 database compiled by Shahi slopes. Bray and Travasarou (2007) found that Sa ð1:5Ts Þ was the
(2013). For a complete list of the pulse-like ground motions, refer to optimal parameter, where the factor 1.5 was used to capture the effects of
Shahi (2013). All of the records in the database have been rotated to material nonlinearity. In the present study, the authors find that PGV is
the direction of strongest observed pulse. the most efficient IM and Sa ð2:0Ts Þ is somewhat superior to Sa ð1:5Ts Þ.
Sliding displacements were computed for all 243 ground motions The larger factor for near-fault motions (2.0 instead of 1.5) could be
using the program SLAMMER (Jibson et al. 2013) for six different because near-fault pulse motions typically have large intensities and
slopes. Sliding displacements for a weak, stiff slope (ky 5 0:02g and tend to induce stronger soil nonlinearity. Thus, PGV and Sa ð2:0Ts Þ are
Ts 5 0:2 s) are plotted versus the nine considered IMs in Fig. 7, along used in developing the predictive equation of the sliding displacement.

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Fig. 7. Sliding displacements plotted versus various IMs (for a slope with ky 5 0:02 g and Ts 5 0:2 s)

The previous observations also highlight that there is no scalar
IM to satisfy sufficiency for slopes of all dynamic stiffnesses and
strengths. Of all the parameters considered, PGV can be considered
as an alternative scalar IM for all slopes, although it does not directly
capture the frequency content characteristics of ground motions.
The Newmark sliding block mechanism used to generate the
computed displacements in this study includes the permanent dis-
placements resulting from rigid body slippage along a distinct fail-
ure surface, which are in turn related to the shear stresses that
develop along that surface. Shear stress, however, has a direct re-
lationship to peak velocity, and not acceleration or displacement
(Davoodi et al. 2013). Pulse-like ground motions have larger PGVs
than nonpulse-like motions, which leads to greater shear-stress levels.
This is assumed to be the main reason leading to higher sliding
displacement and stronger correlation of displacement with PGV for
pulse-like ground motions than for nonpulse ground motions. Other
more complicated velocity-related ground motion IMs, such as
Housner intensity (Housner 1952), may be more effective than
PGV for predicting seismic displacement. However, this study aims
at developing a model using IM that can be predicted using well-
developed relationships, which is not the case, for example, for
Housner intensity. Therefore, PGV will be used as an index to capture
the effect of velocity pulse characteristic on the sliding displacement
of slopes in the predictive model developed in this study.
It should be noted that the SDs in Fig. 8 generally increase with
increasing values of ky , which means PGV does not correlate well
with sliding displacement for a strong slope with large ky . This is
because when ky is very large, only a small portion of the ground

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J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.

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Fig. 8. SD of the residuals of predicted sliding displacements [Eq. (1)] for pulse-like ground motions using various IMs as predictive variables; lower
SDs are an indication of an efficient IM

motion induces slippage. In that case, however, the permanent
seismic displacements will be generally very low and result in minor
seismic damage. As will be discussed in the following section, very
small displacements (D # 1 cm) are not considered in the models
because of practical considerations.
Modified Predictive Equation
The only available predictive model for seismically induced dis-
placements that is based on a simplified coupled model is the Bray
and Travasarou (2007) model (for simplicity, this model will be
called the BT07 model). This model was developed using a ground
motion database that did not distinguish pulse- and nonpulse like
records, and in fact, most of the records were nonpulse-like records.
For this reason, the influence of some special near-fault ground
motion characteristics, such as the velocity pulse, on the seismic
displacement are likely not captured by the BT07 model. Fig. 9
shows the residuals (i.e., ln Dcalculated 2 ln Dpredicted ) plotted versus
magnitude for the ground motions listed in Table 1. The residuals are
differentiated by whether they have a pulse (NF-P) or not (NF-NP).
A polynomial fit to the residuals is included with the plots. Observe

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 that predicted displacements are larger than the calculated dis-
placement for a large majority of the NF-NP cases (residuals are less
than zero). On the other hand, the residuals of NF-P ground motions
from the BT07 model are symmetrically distributed around zero,
indicating that the predictions are not as biased as those from NF-NP
motions. These observations are inconsistent with the result from
Fig. 8 in Bray and Travasarou (2007), in which the residuals of
displacement show no obvious bias at close distances (near-fault
ground motions). This is likely the result of different models used for
shear modulus reduction and material damping ratio curves.
Following the approach of Bray and Travasarou (2007), the
authors adopt a mixed-random variable approach in which a predictive
model is developed separately for the probability of negligible dis-
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approach is better because it avoids an artificial truncation of the
probability-density functions at low displacements (alternatively,
truncated log-normal distributions could also be used). However,
the predictions of small displacements using the set of predictive
variables explored in this paper are poor, resulting in an artificially
large SD (see Fig. S3). This larger SD has an impact on the results of
probabilistic seismic demand analyses, even for larger displace-
ments. For these reasons, the model using D . 1 cm is a better fit to
the residuals despite the artificial truncation; hence, the authors
recommend its use for probabilistic seismic displacement analyses.
Additional justification for the use of the proposed (D . 1 cm) model
is also included in Figs. S3–S9 and the corresponding presentation in
the supplemental data.

placements (D # 1 cm) and for the conditional probability density
function of significant displacements (D . 1 cm). This truncation
affects the shape of the distribution for small displacements; in
particular, the median prediction becomes biased toward slightly
larger displacements (i.e., it is conservative). An alternative ap-
proach is to use the mixed-random variable approach with the
probability of true-zero displacements (i.e., D 5 0 cm). A model
developed using this approach is presented in Eqs. S3–S5 in the
supplemental data and is compared with the model presented in this
manuscript. From a philosophical viewpoint, using the true-zero
Preliminary analyses indicated that PGV increases the pre-
dictive power of the BT07 model for motions with forward di-
rectivity pulses. In the model development, the authors test two
functional forms: the BT07 model [refitted to the near-fault ground
motion data listed in Shahi (2013)] and a new functional form that
incorporates PGV and substitutes Sa ð2:0Ts Þ for Sa ð1:5Ts Þ. The
coefficients of the model were determined using a random effects
regression approach that accounts for the interevent and intraevent
variability. The statistical program R 3.0.1 was used to perform the
regression analyses. The refitted BT07 model is given by

Fig. 9. Residuals of the sliding displacement for slopes with different values of yield acceleration and natural period of the sliding mass subjected to
NF-P and NF-NP ground motions using the BT07 model: (a) ky 5 0:05g, Ts 5 0:2 s; (b) ky 5 0:05g, Ts 5 1:0 s; (c) ky 5 0:1g, Ts 5 0:2 s; (d) ky 5 0:1g,
Ts 5 1:0 s

© ASCE 04014110-10 J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.

J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.



2
lnðDÞ ¼ 21:733 2 2:719 ln ky 2 0:265 ln ky

bias in the displacement residuals when plotted versus magnitude,
þ 2:574 ln½Sa ð1:5Ts Þ þ 0:477 ln ky ln½Sa ð1:5Ts Þ
2 0:275fln½Sa ð1:5Ts Þg2 þ 1:5Ts þ 0:497ðM 2 7Þ þ ɛ
(2)
and the model that incorporates PGV and substitutes Sa ð2:0Ts Þ for
Sa ð1:5Ts Þ is given by


2
lnðDÞ ¼ 28:436 2 3:195 ln ky 2 0:346 ln ky

(Ts =Tp ) where residuals are nonzero are captured using time-domain
þ 1:579 ln½Sa ð2:0Ts Þ þ 0:393 ln ky ln½Sa ð2:0Ts Þ
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2 0:136fln½Sa ð2:0Ts Þg2 þ 1:542 lnðPGVÞ þ 0:112Ts þ ɛ
(3)
where ɛ 5 zero-mean random variable with a SD of slnD . After
adding the PGV term [Eq. (3)], the authors observed no magnitude
dependence of the residuals (Fig. 10). This is likely because
PGV adds important magnitude-related information. The authors
also tested other PGV terms such as ½lnðPGVÞ2 , ky lnðPGVÞ, and
lnðky ÞlnðPGVÞ, but those terms did not improve the equation’s
performance. The SDs of the residual term (ɛ) in Eqs. (2) and (3)
are given in Table 3. It can be seen that the SD of the new model
[Eq. (3)] decreases compared with the model in Eq. (2). The new
model uses a vector of predictive variables [PGV and Sa ð2:0Ts Þ],
and robust ground motion prediction equations exist for these
variables. Their correlation, which is necessary for probabilistic
seismic demand analysis of slopes, can be obtained by using the
pulse record database.
The residuals from Eqs. (2) and (3) plotted versus various in-
dependent variables are shown in Fig. 10. The average residuals for
PðD ¼ 0jpulseÞ ¼
210:07þ0:723 lnðPGVÞþ0:603Ts 26:295 lnðky Þþ3:669 ln½Sa ð2:0Ts Þ
1þe
An Excel spreadsheet implementing the predictive model [Eqs.
(3)–(5)] and an Excel spreadsheet of worked examples have been
included in the supplemental data.
Sliding Displacements to Equivalent Wavelet Pulses
Unlike other earthquake ground motions, pulse-like ground motions
have relatively simple time-domain representations, and most of the
energy is carried by a coherent pulse with a well-defined frequency.
Past work has shown that the wavelet transform provides a good
representation of these ground motion pulses in both time and fre-
quency domains (e.g., Baker 2007). Wavelet pulses have also been
shown to adequately duplicate the response of structures to pulse-
like motions if the wavelet parameters are adequately selected
(Sehhati et al. 2011). Considering that NF-P motions can induce
large displacement in slopes, a valid question to ask is whether the
sliding displacement of slopes can be analyzed using equivalent
pulses. In this section, the authors investigate the answer to this
question noting that if the answer is positive, pulse-like ground
motions could be represented using equivalent wavelet pulses, and
time-domain parameters such as the period (Tp ) and amplitude (Ap )
of the pulses can be used as alternative intensity measures.
© ASCE 04014110-11
J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.
different Ts and ky values are also presented. There is no observed
Sa , Ts , and ky for the two models, but the spread of the residuals is
larger for the model in Eq. (2) than for the new model [Eq. (3)]. The
mean residuals for the model in Eq. (2) display an increasing trend
with increasing PGV, resulting in very large positive residuals for
high PGV values. Therefore, the model in Eq. (2) significantly
underestimates the displacement from ground motions with large
PGV values, which is generally the case for pulse-like motions.
Observe that Ts =Tp is also an important parameter that affects the
displacement. The effects of pulse motions on the period range
analyses, as described in the next section.
The computed values of slnD are plotted in Fig. 11 for bins of
ky =Sa ð1:5Ts Þ for the residuals from Eq. (2) and for bins of
ky =Sa ð2:0Ts Þ for the residuals from Eq. (3). A constant slnD model is
appropriate for the model associated with Eq. (2) (slnD 5 0:85), and
a bilinear relationship fits the model associated with Eq. (3). This
model is shown in Fig. 11 and is given by
ky ky
sln D ¼ 0:356 þ 1:024 for # 0:4
Sa ð2:0Ts Þ Sa ð2:0Ts Þ
(4)
ky
sln D ¼ 0:766 for . 0:4
Sa ð2:0Ts Þ
The final component needed for predicting slope displacements is
the probability of occurrence of zero displacement (i.e., D # 1 cm).
This probability is computed as a function of the slope parameters
(ky , Ts ) and ground motion IMs [PGV, Sa ð2:0Ts Þ]. A logistic re-
gression model by program R was used for this analysis. The
resulting model is given by
1
(5)
To this end, equivalent wavelet pulses were computed for all
243 ground motions in the Shahi (2013) database. The Daubechies
wavelet of order 4 with a center period of 1.4 s was used as the
mother wavelet because it approximates the shape of many velocity
pulses (Baker 2007). Sliding displacements were computed both
for the 243 recorded ground motions and for their equivalent pulses.
Displacements were computed for slopes with various combinations
of ky values (0:05, 0:1, and 0:2g) and Ts values (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 s).
The difference between displacements computed for the recorded
pulses and for the equivalent pulses can be quantified using the
displacement ratio (DR)
DRecorded Pulse D
DR ¼ ¼ RP (6)
DEquivalent Pulse DEP
where DRP 5 displacement computed for the recorded pulse; and
DEP 5 displacement computed for the equivalent wavelet pulse. In
Fig. 12, the DRs are plotted against the ratio of the slope period to
the pulse period to (period ratio, Ts =Tp ) for cases where the dis-
placements computed for recorded pulses were nonnegligible.
Fig. 12 shows that when the period ratio falls in a range between
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Fig. 10. Displacement residuals versus magnitude, PGV, Sa ð1:5Ts Þ, Sa ð2:0Ts Þ, Ts =Tp , Ts , and ky for (a) the refitted BT07 model [Eq. (2)]; (b) the
proposed model [Eq. (3)]

approximately 0.3 and 1.0, the DR values are close to 1, which
means that the equivalent wavelet pulses can adequately reproduce
the displacement response of slopes to the original ground motions.
In that range, the pulse period is in the neighborhood of the natural
period of the sliding mass, and the seismic response of slopes is
controlled by the forward-directivity pulse. For cases when the
period of the pulse and the period of the slope are close (0:3
# Ts =Tp # 1:0), the DR can be modeled as a log-normally dis-
tributed random variable [i.e., normally distributed for ln(DR), see
Fig. 13] with mean and SD given by

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J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.

 Table 3. Parameters from Regression Analysis for Two Displacement Models mlnðDRÞ ¼ 0:330
(7)
Interevent standard Intraevent standard Total standard slnðDRÞ ¼ 0:270
Model error t error s error slnD
Eq. (2) 0.201 0.851 0.874
Eq. (3) 0.171 0.569 0.594 Because wavelet pulses can reasonably represent pulse-like ground
motions when the pulses are dominant (0:3 # Ts =Tp # 1:0), the
authors use these functions to explore the response of slopes to
pulses with a variety of periods and amplitudes. Equivalent wavelet
pulses were extracted from 30 near-fault ground motions with a
wide range in pulse periods (0:3 # Tp # 9:0 s). Most of the pulse
motions are from Table 1; two pulse motions with short pulse periods
of Tp 5 0:3 s (NGA Record No. 4211) and Tp 5 0:6 s (NGA Record
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Fig. 11. SD of ln D versus ky =Sa ð1:5Ts Þ for Eq. (2) and versus
ky =Sa ð2:0Ts Þ for Eq. (3)
No. 1050) are added. For each pulse, the amplitude was scaled from
30 to 100 cm=s. The sliding displacement of slopes computed using
these wavelets are shown in Fig. 14. The displacement level tends to
be higher in the pulse-dominant range (Fig. 14), because response
amplification is induced when the pulse period is close to the natural
period of slope, and most of the pulse energy is dissipated to generate
the permanent slippage.
Fig. 14 presents the possibility of using a new paradigm for
hazard analysis of near-fault sites. When the pulse is dominant (in
this case, for 0:3 # Ts =Tp # 1:0), time-domain analyses can be used
to generate response surfaces such as those shown in Fig. 14. These
can be used along with the computed bias in displacement ratios
[Eqs. (6) and (7)] to compute sliding displacements for these mo-
tions. For other types of motions, displacements can be predicted

Fig. 12. Values of the displacement ratio versus Ts =Tp

Fig. 13. (a) Histogram of the displacement ratio for 0:3 # Ts =Tp # 1:0, along with the observed and theoretical log-normal probability density
function; (b) QQ-plot using the lognormal model

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Fig. 14. Response surfaces for sliding displacements of slopes based on equivalent wavelets with 30 # Ap # 100 cm=s and 0:3 # Tp # 9:0 s:
(a) ky 5 0:1g, Ts 5 0:5 s; (b) ky 5 0:1g, Ts 5 1:0 s
using Eq. (3) (for NF-P motions where the pulse is not dominant), or
using the model by Bray and Travasarou (2007) for NF-NP and far-
field motions.
PðD ¼ 0jpulse is dominantÞ ¼
1 þ e230:97þ5:68 lnðAp Þ210:646½ðTs =Tp Þ20:3½ðTs =Tp Þ21:0210:591 lnðky Þ28:725Ts
Fig. 15 shows the probability of zero displacement plotted versus
Tp for ky 5 0:1 g, Ts 5 1:0 s, and Ap 5 15 cm=s. It can be seen that
the probability of zero displacements is significantly smaller when
the pulse period falls in the range where pulses are dominant (ap-
proximately 1.0–3.3 s).
The response surfaces shown in Fig. 14, along with the proba-
bility of zero displacement [Eq. (8)] can be coupled with proba-
bilistic seismic demand analysis of slopes for the cases in which
pulses are dominant. When the pulse does not control the response of
the slope, i.e., Ts =Tp is outside of the defined range, the new model
developed in the previous section [Eqs. (3)–(5)] can be an alternative
to predict the sliding displacement of slopes.
Conclusions
A nonlinear fully coupled simplified method is adopted to study
the effects of near-fault pulses on the seismic response and sliding
displacement of slopes with various strengths and stiffness. The
accuracy of the conventional model (Bray and Travasarou 2007)
for predicting displacements resulting from NF-P ground motions
is investigated using a comprehensive database of 243 pulse re-
cords. That database is then used to develop a predictive model to
evaluate sliding displacements of slopes subject to near-fault pulse
motions. The proposed model is an improvement over the BT07
model for NF-P motions. Some special cases are identified in
which pulses are dominant and the sliding displacement of slopes
can be computed in terms of simplified pulse parameters.
The sliding characteristics of the sliding mass subjected to pulse-
like ground motions are closely related to the features of the velocity
© ASCE 04014110-14
J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng.
When the pulse is dominant, the probability of zero displacement
also changes. This probability is computed as a function of the slope
parameters (ky , Ts ) and simplified pulse parameters (Tp , Ap ) using
a logistic regression model
1
(8)
pulse. The slope is expected to have high seismic displacement and
the displacement occurs over relatively short times, implying large
sliding velocities. An important conclusion of this research is that
when the pulse is dominant (for the slopes studied in this paper, this
corresponded to cases when the 0:3 # Ts =Tp # 1:0), sliding dis-
placements computed using wavelet pulses that are extracted from
recorded ground motions are very similar to those computed using
the original ground motions. In these cases, sliding displacements
can be predicted by using directly wavelet pulses. This observation
leads to a novel approach to seismic demand analyses: when the pulse
is dominant, sliding displacements are predicted using time-domain
analyses for a wide range of pulse periods and amplitudes (Fig. 14); for
other cases, sliding displacements are predicted using conventional
predictive equations, such as the one developed in this study for near-
fault ground motions [Eq. (3)], or the Bray and Travasarou (2007)
equation for other types of ground motions. The use of wavelet pulses
to predict displacements for pulse-like motions captures the particu-
larities of these motions and improves predictive power because of the
possibility of capturing potential resonances in the slope. A model for
implementing this approach in probabilistic analyses of the slope dis-
placement is proposed in Rodriguez-Marek and Song (“Displacement-
Based Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analyses of Earth Slopes in the
Near-Fault Region,” submitted, Earthquake Spectra, Earthquake En-
gineering Research Institute, El Cerrito, California).
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the directivity working group of the PEER’s
NGA-West2 project for having identified and published the ground
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Fig. 15. Dependence of the probability of D # 1 cm on the pulse
period when pulse is dominant (ky 5 0:1g, Ts 5 1:0 s, Ap 5 15 cm=s)
motion database that was directly relevant to this paper. The authors
also thank the Chinese Scholarship Council for providing the
funding that enabled the first author to visit Virginia Tech to do
the work presented in this paper.
Supplemental Data
An Excel spreadsheet related to the predictive model [Eqs. (3)–(5)]
and a PDF document related to predictive equation and displace-
ment residuals by using all true nonzero displacements (D . 0 cm)
and comparisons with the model in the manuscript [model using
D . 1 cm, i.e., Eqs. (3)–(5)] are available online in the ASCE Library
(www.ascelibrary.org).
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