Hotline Jerusalem: an I.M.E.

Proposal
written by AnarchOfEumeswil

This proposal is written with the intent to serve as a general guideline as to how things in the
Italian Middle East will play out after the end of the Italo Turkish War. For this reason, it is
split into two major sections, each concerning one of the possible outcomes of the war.

Part 1: Italy has won the Italo Turkish War

Section 1.1: Who is Who in the I.M.E.

Congratulations, you have won the Italo Turkish War! Italy is still the dominant power in this
part of the Middle East, and has proven its resolve to the native populations. However, the
situation in Palestine is still a powder keg waiting to explode.

Italy has ties and deals with two major organizations, one on each side of the ethnoreligious
barricade:

- Haganah (LibDem): the most “collaborative” and the largest of the Jewish
paramilitaries. They are willing to work with Italy as long as it means the Jews of
Palestine are protected and Palestine can become a safe and democratic home for
the world’s Jewish population. Led by Yitzhak Rabin.
- Fatah (SocDem): the most recent incarnation of a series of Arab organizations and
paramilitaries with the goal to defend the rights of Arabs in the Levant. They are more
independentist and generally more radical than Haganah, but they are still willing to
compromise with Italy. They are split into two wings: one more traditionalist and tied
to Islam, led by Abd al-Qadir al-Husayni, and one more progressive and tied to the
democratic ideals, led by Yasser Arafat.

Unless for one exception (which we will see later), all other paramilitaries and groups are
hostile to Italy and will not negotiate with it. Very briefly, these other paramilitary groups are:

- Irgun (AuthDem): Jewish nationalists, want independence and a large Jewish state
that also includes Transjordan. Almost equal to Haganah in terms of members and
resources. Led by Menachem Begin.
- Lehi (Fascist): Jewish fascists and ultranationalists, want independence and will
attempt to remove Arabs from the Levant, as well as expand their territory. A rather
small group, but dangerously radicalized and violent. Led by Yitzhak Shamir.
- Arab Nationalist Movement (AuthSoc): a wide front of Arab socialists, left-wing
nationalists and communists. Much smaller than Fatah. Led by George Habash.
Alternatively known as PFLP (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine).
- Palestinian Liberation Front - General Command (UltNat): a fictional organization
(a “merge” of the real life PLF and PFLP-GC). The smallest and most radicalized of
the Arab paramilitaries, they are ultranationalistic and extremely violent. Led by
Ahmed Jibril.
The main goal of Italy, after winning the Italo Turkish War, is overseeing a peaceful transition
to native rule. There are several approaches Italy can take towards this, each with its own
advantages and drawbacks. However, all of them have one common denominator: keeping
down the anti-Italian organizations and propping up Fatah and Irgun.

Essentially, this would mean that each paramilitary has a certain variable associated to it,
representing its influence in the Arab and the Jewish camp: this way the player will see what
is currently the most influential Arab organization and the most influential Jewish
organization. The player will have to actively work towards keeping the variables for Fatah
and Haganah high, and the variables for all the other factions low, otherwise the situation in
the I.M.E. will collapse. For example, if the ANM becomes the most influential Arab
organization, it will stage a massive revolt, causing the end of Italian rule in the Levant. In
1962, Haganah is the most powerful Jewish paramilitary, with Irgun being a close second
and Lehi being well behind both; in the Arab camp, Fatah is by far the most powerful Arab
organization, with ANM being well behind it and the PLF-GC being very tiny.

The repression of the anti-Italian paramilitaries will be done through what Dalla Chiesa and
his bosses in Rome have called Operation Hotline Jerusalem.

Section 1.2: Hotline Jerusalem

The I.M.E. is a large tract of land, very populated, and often including vast desertic or
mountainous areas. As all of Dalla Chiesa’s predecessors have learned, a traditional
counterinsurgency campaign would be a waste of lives, resources and time. For this reason,
Dalla Chiesa has proposed a new tactic to deal with the numerous anti-italian paramilitaries
and terrorists organization: make them fight among themselves.

The Italy player will have a series of decisions, through which Dalla Chiesa can be sent to
perform secret operations aimed at making the various paramilitaries of the Levant fight
among themselves. This will achieve two goals: first, the various paramilitaries will be made
weaker by all the fighting, second, this will help sway public opinion in favor of the Italian-
sponsored peace process, as there are currently radicals gunning each other down in the
streets. A few examples of Dalla Chiesa’s black ops could be:

- stage a street battle between ANM and Lehi by slipping informations to both
- sow discord and rivalry between Irgun and Haganah, with the aim of leading more
people to side with the latter
- tip Lehi to the location of an ANM hideout
- attack an Irgun kibbutz, blame the ANM or the PLF-GC
- publicize Lehi’s contacts with Nazi Germany
- assassinate an Irgun member and blame the ANM or viceversa

Et cetera, et cetera. As you might have noticed, many of these veer into a very morally grey
territory, and that’s how they should be: how far are you willing to go in your attempt to bring
peace in the Middle East? Collateral damage will be often unavoidable, and the overall goal
is to make your enemies consume each other in battle while at the same time making
yourself look like the good guy in the eyes of the public, as it will be you who will clean up
the mess left by the radicals.
While at night Dalla Chiesa is leading is unconventional anti-terrorist campaign, during the
day the actual peace process can take place. This will consist of the Jerusalem Conference.

Section 1.3: The Jerusalem Conference

The Jerusalem Conference will be where the Italians, Haganah and Fatah will decide the
fate of the Levant. It should be structured more or less like the TUC Congress in
Kaiserreich’s UoB, as a series of issues are brought up (settlements, et cetera) and Italy can
rule in favor of either the Arabs or the Jews. However, the Conference will take place over a
long time, and every time the player rules in favor of either the Arabs or the Jews, the
corresponding anti-Italian paramilitary will have its influence increased to represent
backlash.

For example, if Italy decides to allow the Jews more land to create new settlements, the
Arabs will get angry at Italians and lose faith in Fatah, therefore leading to the ANM
increasing its influence rapidly.

On the contrary, if Italy decides to shut down Jewish settlement, the Jews will get angry at
Italians and lose faith in Haganah, therefore leading to Irgun increasing its influence.

The Jerusalem Conference can have several outcomes: two “golden outcomes”,
representing Italy successfully achieving a good decolonization, and two “nuclear options”,
last resort plans which Italy can use if the situation is slipping out of control. The golden
outcomes first:

Golden outcome 1: One Solution, Two States

Italy has decided to favor the Zionists, and granted them some land in the Levant. This will
lead to two new states being formed: the state of Israel, ruled by Haganah, and a state of
Palestine, ruled by Fatah, at least initially. The borders are similar to these, with the orange
areas being Palestine and the blue areas being Israel. Palestine also gets Transjordan.
Jerusalem is an independent city state guaranteed by Italy and governed by a joint council of
Arabs and Jews, with an Italian garrison to enforce order (this can be represented by
Jerusalem being directly annexed by Italy). Lebanon is released either as a puppet state, as
a separate governate, or an associated state. Both states have close relationships to Italy,
and while radical elements both Jewish and Arab camps are unhappy and paramilitary
activity is still present, the situation is fairly manageable and both states have close ties with
Italy. Jerusalem is partitioned between Arabs and Jews. This outcome is achieved if Arafat is
kept alive, Haganah and Fatah are kept as the strongest organizations, and Italy favors the
Jews in the Conference.

Golden outcome 2: A Democratic Confederation

Italy has decided to listen to Arafat and the moderate Arabs. This will created an Arab
dominated state that will encompass the whole territory of the Levant, in which the rights of
Jews and other minorities are respected. Something resembling a Levantine Switzerland,
this democratic confederation will be optimistic but rather unstable, and plagued by terrorism
and paramilitary activity for a long time. It will still have strong ties to Italy. This outcome can
be reached if Arafat is kept alive, Fatah and Haganah are the strongest organizations, and
Italy has favored the Arabs in the Conference.

Both of these outcomes should be very difficult to reach, and both are best case scenarios. If
at any point the situation during the Conference should get too heated (e.g. one of the anti-
Italian paramilitaries is getting too powerful), the Italy player should be able to resort to an
extreme option. This would be swinging hard in favor of the Jews or the Arabs, fully relying
on one and alienating the other instead of trying to appease both. These two outcomes are:

Last resort option 1: A Deal With the Devil

If Italy decides to favor the Jews, it will bypass the Haganah and start talks with Irgun
instead. Irgun promises to stop fighting against Italy, and instead create a strong, stable
Jewish state in the Levant that is independent but allied with Italy. This will result in a Jewish
military dictatorship supported by Italy that heavily segregates the Arabs and includes all of
Palestine, the West Bank, Gaza and Transjordan.

Last resort option 2: An Eye For an Eye

Realizing that Arafat is not a good negotiation partner, Italy will employ the help of Irgun to
assassinate him, leading to al-Husayni and his traditionalist wing to take over in Fatah. Using
populist and religious rhetoric, al-Husayni will blame the Jews for their oppression and start
negotiating with Italy to create a strong, dictatorial Arab state (again, possibly a monarchy)
that will encompass the whole Levant and actively oppress the Jews and other non-muslims.

Both of these are inferior endings to the golden outcomes, but still better than an anti-Italian
group directly taking over and being hostile to Italy. During the oil crisis, all four of these
outcomes will backfire in some way.

The goal of this mechanic is to give the player agency over what happens in the ME while
still making it a dynamic and interesting factor to play with. Reaching a golden ending should
be hard, the last resort scenarios would be the more likely endings, and a total collapse
unlikely but possibly. Speaking of total collapse, the Jerusalem Conference collapsing would
lead to similar outcomes as Italy losing the Italo Turkish War.

Part 2: Italy has lost the Italo Turkish War

Section 2.1: Catastrophe in the Levant

Italy has lost the Italo-Turkish War, and the empire’s hold on the Middle East has just
become a lot more tenuous. In the Levant, the defeat was seen as a sign of weakness by
the numerous militant anti-Italian groups, who have thus decided to act. Not long after the
end of the war, Governor General Carlo Alberto Dalla Chiesa will be assassinated by an
unknown gunman.

The PNF, already shaken up by the humiliation of defeat, will demand blood for blood. Dalla
Chiesa was evidently too lenient on the population on the Levant, and a true strongman is
what is needed: Francesco Colombo, OTL war criminal and head of the “Autonomous
Legion Ettore Muti”, an anti-partisan group of the RSI. In TNOtl, he’d be the head of the
“Autonomous Legion” as well, but in this timeline the “Legion” is actually a police and anti-
partisan organization operating in the I.M.E. who became known for its particularly brutal
methods, and was de facto retired by Dalla Chiesa. Now, Italy has decided to give Colombo
the chance to shine, and restore order in the I.M.E. once and for all…

Section 2.2: The Heart of Darkness

As the Italians lost the war, Arafat and Fatah lost credibility in the public eye, and thus
radical organizations (Irgun, Lehi, the ANF, and the PLF-GC) all became immensely more
influential. Colombo’s job is to repress the various anti-Italian organizations, and will do so
rather indiscriminately. Italy will have to spend money and resources so that Colombo can
lead his counterinsurgency campaign, deciding to direct it either against the Jews or the
Arabs. If the player does nothing, the influence of both ANF and Irgun will quickly rise up,
leading to a revolt and the Italians being kicked out. However, there is a twist: the more
money and resources you pour into Colombo’s campaign, the worse will the situation get.

Colombo completely lacks the subtlety and strategic thinking of Dalla Chiesa, and as such is
methods are much more coarse and violent. Every time you order Colombo to crack down
on the Jews, he will destroy a kibbutz, more Jews will radicalize, leading to Lehi becoming
more influential. Every time you order Colombo to crackdown on the Arabs, he will napalm
an Arab village, more Arabs will radicalize, leading to the PLF-GC becoming more influential.
In the end, if the player continues to allow Colombo’s acts of brutal violence, either Lehi or
the PLF-GC will rise up, and force the Italians out of the I.M.E. once and for all.

So, how to avoid this? Just above the decisions to send more money and resources to
Colombo, the player will have a decision called “Pull Out from the Levant”. This essentially
consists of abandoning the region to either the ANM or Irgun, retreating your troops from the
area. It’s basically Italy deciding to cut losses, and it’s actually the wisest choice, as they will
prevent the more radically violent groups (Lehi and the PLF-GC) from taking power.

The player will not be told directly that he should pull out, but for every time you order
Colombo to do something, an event will pop up about his brutal methods and the outrage
that they’re causing in Italy, which will provide maluses. If Italy is democratic, the maluses
might be so bad that not pulling out is essentially necessary - if Italy is fascist, they will still
be bad, but a player who wants to truly turn his playthrough into a fascist fever dream might
want to keep pressing the buttons to send Colombo more money.

Therefore, if Italy pulls out, there are three possible ending scenarios:
-Italy pulls out after cracking down on Irgun more than ANM: the ANM will take over the
Levant, and will institute a socialist state. Very unstable and in a state of semi-anarchy, the
Levant will be a hotbed of violence and will only be able to stabilize during the oil crisis when
Habash is couped by Hawatmeh, who will restore order through red terror.
-Italy pulls out after cracking down on ANM more than Irgun: Irgun will take over the
Levant, and set up a military dictatorship hostile to Italy. Irgun will heavily segregate the
Arabs, causing a very strong intifada and continuous clashes between Jews and Arabs
which will blow up during the oil crisis.
-Italy pulls out after attacking Irgun and ANM equally (or just pulls out immediately
without cracking down): the bad version of the two states solution. West Bank, Gaza and
Transjordan go to ANM, the rest goes to Irgun, and the two will remain in a state of low-
intensity warfare until the oil crisis, at which point they’ll jump at each other’s throat.

Finally, if Italy decides not to pull out, there are two possible scenarios:

-Italy does not pull out, and cracks down on ANM a lot: the Arabs radicalize more and
more, causing the PFL-GC to become much stronger and lead an insurrection. The Levant is
organized as a totalitarian Arab semi-hermit state bent on removing the Jews from the
Levant at all costs.
-Italy does not pull out, and cracks down on Irgun a lot: the Jews radicalize more and
more, leading to Lehi becoming much stronger and lead an insurrection. Lehi takes control
of the Levant and creates a totalitarian, fascist Jewish state who will enforce ethnic cleansing
of non-Jews.

Part 3: Conclusion

As a final overview, it should be noted that the truly horrible scenarios for the Levant can
only be caused by the player intentionally making things worse. A “bad” / unskilled player will
either lead to the “Deal With The Devil” or “Eye for an Eye” scenarios (if they won the ITW),
or at worse to either Irgun, ANM or both taking over, which is still bad, but not as bad.

This system also adds weight to the Italo Turkish War, as it immensely raises the stakes of
the war: if Italy can defeat Turkey, then something resembling peace and stability in the
Levant might be achieved, otherwise the region will fall into violence and chaos.

Finally, I don’t believe any of these outcomes should be locked politically (i.e. making them
available for either Scorza or dem Italy), with perhaps only one exception, which is not
pulling out from the Levant after Dalla Chiesa dies.