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Climate change impact on climate suitability for wine production in Romania

Article in Theoretical and Applied Climatology · July 2018

DOI: 10.1007/s00704-017-2156-z

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Theor Appl Climatol (2018) 133:1–14
DOI 10.1007/s00704-017-2156-z
ORIGINAL PAPER
Climate change impact on climate suitability for wine
production in Romania
Liviu Mihai Irimia 1 & Cristian Valeriu Patriche 2 & Bogdan Roșca 2
Received: 9 February 2017 / Accepted: 2 May 2017 / Published online: 29 May 2017
# Springer-Verlag Wien 2017
Abstract Climate change modifies the viticultural potential
of wine regions, their specific wine styles and even the limits
of viticulture area on the globe. The significant impact of
climate change on viticulture requires in-depth studies of its
consequences, in order to identify adaptation measures. This
research analyzes the changes in climatic suitability for wine
production in Romania between 1961 and 2013 as an effect of
climate change. The study is based on gridded data at
10 × 10 km resolution of average daily temperature, precipi-
tation and sunshine duration from 1961 to 2013, interpolated
from about 150 weather stations across Romanian territory
and recorded in the ROCADA database. Climate suitability
for wine production is expressed through the means and spa-
tial distribution for 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013 periods of
the oenoclimate aptitude index (IAOe) that integrates the in-
fluence of temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation on
the grapevine. The results of the study reveal a 2.4 million ha
expansion of the area with climate suitable for wine produc-
tion on Romanian territory; a 180-m increase in altitude with
climate suitable for wine production, up to a current maximum
of 835 m asl; a northward shift of about 0.036° of area with
climate suitable for wine production; the tendency to altering
the climate suitability for wine production at regional level, by
decreasing climate suitability for white wines and replacing it
with climate suitability for red wines. The study allows in-
* Cristian Valeriu Patriche
pvcristi@yahoo.com
1
Faculty of Horticulture, University of Agricultural Sciences and
Veterinary Medicine, 3, Mihail Sadoveanu Alley,
700490 Iaşi, Romania
2
Iaşi Branch, Geography Group, Romanian Academy, 8 Carol I
Boulevard, 700505 Iaşi, Romania
depth analysis from a spatial perspective of the shifts caused
by climate change in the wine areas, constituting a solid sup-
port for developing strategies of viticulture adaptation to the
new climatic context.
1 Introduction
Climate change impacts all human activities, forcing society to
make appropriate adjustments in order to take advantage of its
positive effects or conversely, to mitigate its adverse conse-
quences (IPCC 2013; Parry et al. 2007). Viticulture is also affect-
ed by this phenomenon, which has already produced important
changes in the specific climates of the main wine regions on the
globe (Jones et al. 2005) and threatens to affect the areas and the
type of wine production of global viticulture (Hannah et al. 2013;
Moriondo et al. 2013; Malheiro et al. 2010).
There are concerns regarding Romania’s viticulture as well.
Romania is one of the world’s main wine producing countries,
with an area of about 192,000 ha of vine plantations and about 5
mil. Hl/year wine production (OIV 2016). In Romania, viticul-
ture is a traditional occupation, which appeared and evolved
throughout history due to the suitable climate for the grape grow-
ing. Each Romanian wine region grows, in addition to the well-
known international wine grape varieties, autochtonous vinifera
varieties that give specificity to local wine production. National
viticulture area is structured into eight large wine growing re-
gions with particular environmental features, determined by their
proximity to the Carpathians chain (2500 m asl.), the Danube
River and the Black Sea. The eight wine regions include 141
vineyard areas or vineyards, the southernmost of which is located
at ~43° N and the northernmost one at ~48° N. Due to the large
range in latitude of the Romanian territory, the types of wine
production are differentiated from S to N, according to the range
in abundance of heliothermic resources as follows: at the
2 L. M. Irimia et al.
southern limit (~43° N) table grape production is important;
within the southern half of Romania (between 43° N and 45°
N) red wine production prevails; within the northern half of the
country (between 45° N and 48 ° lat. N) white wine production
prevails; and at the northern limit (48° N) white table wine and
sparkling wine production predominate. The Romanian
vineyards’ specificity is completed by the practice of vine train-
ing systems adapted to local environmental conditions and to
local wine grape varieties.
This specificity of Romanian viticulture is exposed, as is
the entire global viticulture, to the modifying influence of
climate change (Jones et al. 2005; IPCC 2013). The research
of Romanian climatologists highlights the trend of increasing
air temperature and insolation throughout Romania between
1961 and 2013, amid rainfall stability (Busuioc et al. 2010;
Piticar and Ristoiu 2012; Ioniță et al. 2013; Dumitrescu et al.
2014). Developments are similar to those of the whole of
Eastern Europe (Klein Tank and Kӧnnen 2003; Alexandrov
et al. 2004; Spinoni et al. 2014; Vršič et al. 2014; Kryza
et al. 2015). Data from the weather stations representative of
the eight Romanian wine regions reveal, for the period 1977–
2014, significant increases in mean annual temperature, aver-
age minimum temperatures, average thermal maxima and av-
erage temperatures during summer (Bucur and Dejeu 2016).
Climate change impact is highly felt at the vineyard scale,
where it modifies the local specific climate and its suitability
for wine production (Irimia et al. 2017). Taking into account
the impact of climate change on grape quality (Duchêne and
Schneider 2005; Ramos et al. 2008; Laget et al. 2008) and on
viticulture areas (Jones et al. 2005; Hannah et al. 2013;
Moriondo et al. 2013), studies on the current and future state
of Romania viticulture (fifth place in vine area in Europe, and
13th in wine production; OIV 2016) become mandatory.
This study aims to reveal up to date changes in climate
suitability for wine production in Romania caused by climate
change. For this, we have analyzed the averages and spatial
distribution between 1961 and 1990 and 1991–2013 of the
oenoclimate aptitude index (IAOe, Teodorescu et al. 1987).
This is a complex viticulture bioclimatic index that integrates
the influence of temperature, sunshine duration and precipita-
tion, showing climate suitability for wine production. In
Romania’s climate conditions, IAOe shows statistically signif-
icant (R2 = 0.71–0.828) positive correlations with anthocyanin
content in Cabernet Sauvignon berries (Teodorescu et al. 1987).
Because of its high representativeness, IAOe has been used for
viticulture zoning in Romania (Teodorescu et al. 1987). We aim
to identify any shifts in latitude and altitude range occurring as a
result of climate change in the spatial distribution of IAOe, and
consequently in the spatial distribution of climatic suitability for
wine production in Romania. Spatial shifts in climate suitability
for wine production were forecast by climatologists based on
climate models (Kenny and Harrison 1992; Jones et al. 2005;
Hannah et al. 2013; Moriodo et al. 2013), but they have not
been demonstrated so far. We started our research from the
premise that such shifts have already taken place, as over the
Romanian territory climate change has been manifesting for
about 30 years (Busuioc et al. 2010, 2015; Dumitrescu et al.
2014; Spinoni et al. 2014; Croitoru and Piticar 2013) and be-
cause such shifts have already occurred at the vineyard scale
(Irimia et al. 2017).
Expressing climate suitability for wine production through
bioclimatic indices is generalized in viticulture. The most used
are heat summation indices: Winkler Index (WI; Amerine and
Winkler 1944), Huglin Index (HI; Huglin 1978), average
growing season temperature (AvGST; Jones 2006). As these
indices do not express the Btrue thermal suitability experi-
enced today^ (Moriondo et al. 2013), using combinations of
indices like Latitude Temperature Index (LTI; Kenny and
Harrison 1992), Composite index (CompI; Malheiro et al.
2010) or combinations of thermal and hydrologic indices
(Moriondo et al. 2013) becomes mandatory. The use of bio-
climatic indices allowed identification of changes in specific
climates of major wine regions worldwide (Jones et al. 2005),
and also forecasts on spatial shifts of viticulture areas as a
result of climate change (Kenny and Harrison 1992; Fraga
et al. 2013; Malheiro et al. 2010; Moriodo et al. 2013;
Hannah et al. 2013).
The paper consists of four parts: (1) analysis of active tem-
peratures, precipitation and sunshine duration characterizing
wine regions of Romania between 1961–1990 and 1991–
2013; (2) analysis of averages and suitability structure of
IAOe in Romania between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013; (3)
analysis of shifts occurring in spatial distribution of IAOe
suitability in Romania between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013;
and (4) changes in climate suitability for wine production of
Romanian wine regions between 1961 and 2013.
2 Materials and methods
2.1 Study area
Romania is located in Eastern Europe, between 43° 37′–48°
15′ N lat. and 20° 15′–29° 44′ E long (Fig. 1). Its climate is
temperate continental, Dfb and Dfa in Koppen-Geiger climate
updated classification (Kottek et al. 2006), with annual aver-
age temperature of 8 °C at the northern limit, to 11 °C at the
southern limit and up to 11.7 °C in the plains (Dumitrescu
et al. 2014). The climate is marked by influences of the steppe
climate from the east; Mediterranean climate from south-west;
oceanic climate from the west and northwest. The landscape is
complex and diversified, with 28% represented by mountains
located in the center of the country; 42% represented by pla-
teaus and hills; and 30% represented by plains. Agricultural
lands cover 62% of Romania (Bălteanu et al. 2010), viticulture
being located mainly in hilly and plateau regions.
Climate change impact on climate suitability
Fig. 1 Map of Romanian vineyards (according to CLC 2006) and their
grouping into Wine Regions (according to Ordinul 225 2006): Rv I—
Transylvanian Plateau Wine Region; Rv II—Moldavian Hills Wine
Region; Rv III—Muntenia and Oltenia Hills Wine Region; Rv IV—
The eight Romanian wine regions are (Fig. 1):
Transylvanian Plateau Wine Region (Rv I); Moldavian Hills
Wine Region (Rv II); Muntenia and Oltenia Hills Wine
Region (Rv III); Banat Hills Wine Region (Rv IV); Crișana
and Maramureș Hills Wine Region (Rv V); Dobrogea Hills
Wine Region (Rv VI); Danube Teraces Wine Region (Rv
VII); Sands and other suitable terrains from the South Wine
Region (Rv VIII).
The map of the Romanian vineyards used in this study is
extracted from the Corine Land Cover Database 2006 Europe
of the European Environment Agency (EEA 2006).
2.2 Climate data source
Primary database is represented by daily average temper-
ature (150 stations), annual precipitation (188 stations)
and sunshine duration (135 stations) for the 1961–2013
time period extracted from the ROCADA database
(Dumitrescu and Bîrsan 2015). They are calculated at a
0.1 degree resolution (10 × 10 km), for the entire
3
Banat Hills Wine Region; Rv V—Crișana and Maramureș Hills Wine
Region; Rv VI—Dobrogea Hills Wine Region; Rv VII—Danube
Teraces Wine Region; Rv VIII—Sands and other suitable terrains from
the South Wine Region
Romanian territory by using two programs, MASH for
homogenizing data and MASH to interpolate them. Each
climatic parameter from the ROCADA database presents
multi-temporal files as NetCDF files so processing and
obtaining climatic indices was accomplished by using
Climate Data Operators (CDO).
Gridded data (10 × 10 km) for temperature, precipitation
and sunshine duration were used to calculate the amount of
active temperatures (Σta, °C/April 1st to September 30th),
precipitation during the growing season (PP, mm/April 1st to
September 30th) and actual sunshine duration (ASD, hour/
April 1st to September 30th), parameters required for
oenoclimate aptitude index IAOe.
In order to downscale the data to a finer resolution
(100 × 100 m), the regression-kriging approach was applied.
First, a regression model for IAOe was computed by using
altitude as predictor, then residuals were interpolated by using
ordinary kriging. The altitudes were extracted from a
100 × 100 m DEM resampled from SRTM elevation model
(USGS 2004).
4 L. M. Irimia et al.
2.3 Climate parameter analysis
The first part of the study analyzes the evolution between
1961 and 2013 of the parameters that determine the IAOe
index, that is the sum of active temperatures (Σta, °C), precip-
itation during the growing season (PP, mm) and actual sun-
shine duration (ASD, hours).
Sum of active temperatures (Σta, °C) is the sum of daily
temperatures higher than 10 °C during April 1st to September
30th. In this study, the values of Σta are classified according to
their correlations with the Romanian wine regions type of
wine production (Oşlobeanu et al. 1991): <2600 °C, restrictive
for grape growing; 2600–2850 °C suitable for white table
wines, sparkling wines, wines for distillates (WTW, WS,
WD); 2850–3180 °C suitable for quality white wines and
red table wines (QWW + RTW); >3180 °C suitable for quality
red wines (QRW).
Actual sunshine duration (ASD hours/April 1st to
September 30th) is the sum of sunshine hours during the
growing season. In Romanian wine regions, it varies between
1280 and 1700 h (Oşlobeanu et al. 1991). In this study, ASD
values are classified as follows (Irimia et al. 2014): <1280 h,
restrictive for grapevine growing; 1280–1450 h, suitable for
WTW, SW, WD; 1451–1550 h, suitable for QWW + RTW;
1551–1610, suitable for QRW.
Precipitation in the growing season (PP mm/April 1st to
September 30th) varies between 212 and 498 mm in
Romanian wine regions (Oşlobeanu et al. 1991). In this study,
its values are classified as follows (Irimia et al. 2014):
>390 mm suitable for WTW, SW, WD; <250 mm suitable
for QWW + RTW; 251–390 mm, suitable for QRW.
Averages lower than 250 mm correspond to wine producing
regions frequently affected by drought, with negative impact
on grape quality (Becker and Zimmermann 1984; Irimia
2012).
2.4 Analysis of climate suitability for wine production
Climate suitability for wine production is expressed by the
oenoclimate aptitude index IAOe (Teodorescu et al. 1987).
This index is calculated for the April 1st to September 30th,
using the relation:
IAOe ¼ ASD þ Σta −ðPP−250Þ
where ASD = actual sunshine duration (hours, April 1st to
September 30th), Σta = sum of daily average temperatures
≥10 °C (April 1st to September 30th), PP = precipitation
(mm, April 1st to September 30th) and 250 = minimum pre-
cipitation needed for unirrigated vines (mm). For situations
where PP < 250 mm, the IAOe is computed as the sum of
ASD and Σta (Teodorescu et al. 1987).
In Romanian wine regions, the IAOe varies between 3793
and >5200 units, with values higher than 5200 units charac-
terizing vineyards at the southern limit producing mainly table
grapes (Oşlobeanu et al. 1991). In this study, IAOe is classi-
fied according to methodology for viticultural potential as-
sessment in temperate climate conditions of Romania (Irimia
et al. 2014) as follows: <3793 = class IV = unsuitable for
grapevine growing; 3793–4300 = class III = suitable for
WTW + SW + WD; 4301–4600 = class II = suitable for
QWW + RTW; >4600 = class I = suitabile for QRW.
3 Results
3.1 Analysis of Σta, PP and ASD characterizing Romanian
wine regions between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013
Spatial distribution of the classified values of the Σta (°C), PP
(mm) and ASD (hours) over the Romanian territory during the
two time periods reveals that all three parameters have suf-
fered important spatial shifts from one time period to another
(Fig. 2).
In the case of Σta (°C), the area with >2600 °C suitable for
QRW extends during the 1991–2013 from the southern of
Romania towards N, but also from the lowlands prevailing
in S and W, towards hilly and plateaus areas close to the
Carpathian chain. Simultaneously, unsuitable Σta values
(<2600 °C) restrict to mountainous areas, over 800 m asl
(Fig. 2a). This evolution is similar to ASD: the area with
values >1550 h, suitable for QRW extends from the southern
half (Rv III, Rv VI, Rv VII, Rv VIII) to the north, especially
over lowlands areas from Rv IVand Rv III, while the area with
unsuitable values (<1280 h) restricts to high altitude moun-
tainous areas as well (Fig. 2b).
The development is different for the PP that slightly in-
crease in the Rv I, Rv VI and the north of Rv II. This increase
leads to the diminish of the area requiring irrigation (values
<250 mm) in the Rv VI, while exceding 390 mm expands the
area less suitable for quality wines of the Rv I and of the north
of Rv II (Fig. 2c).
Statistical analysis of spatial distribution of the three pa-
rameters (Fig. 2) shows that Romania’s wine regions regis-
tered between 1961 and 2013 an increase in helio-thermal
resources amid relatively stabile precipitation (Tables 1, 2,
and 3).
Σta (°C) for all eight Romanian wine regions increased by
a composite average of 198 °C, from 3003.0 °C between 1961
and 1990 to 3201.6 °C between 1991 and 2013 (Table 1). The
largest increase (213 °C) is found in Rv V and the lowest
(187 °C) in Rv III. These increases are equivalent to an in-
crease by 0.87–0.99 °C of the average growing season tem-
perature similar to that found for the same time period in the
Cotnari wine region (Rv II) (Irimia et al. 2017). Averages of
Climate change impact on climate suitability 5

Fig. 2 Gridded data of Σta (a), ASD (b) and PP (c) for April 1st to September 30th, between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013 time periods. Based on
temperatures, precipitations and sunshine duration daily data extracted from ROCADA data base (Dumitrescu and Bîrsan 2015)

Min and Max of the Σta (°C) also increase by about 200 °C,
but the range and STD are unchanged showing that spatial
variation of Σta values maintains rather stable during the
two periods.
The average ASD for Romanian wine regions between
1991 and 2013 is 91 h higher than the one between 1961
and 1990, with increases ranging from 76 h for Rv III up to
102 h for Rv I (Table 2). This increase may be caused by
Bbrightening period^ (Spinoni et al. 2014) started in the 80s
and associated also with higher values of maximum and min-
imum of temperature. It is noticeable that the largest increase
is recorded in the intra-montaneous region Rv I (Transylvania
6 L. M. Irimia et al.

Table 1 Descriptive statistics for the Σta (°C, April 1st to September 30th) characterizing Romanian Wine Regions’ climate during 1961 to 1990 and
1991 to 2013 time periods. Values computed using daily data from ROCADA database (Dumitrescu and Bîrsan 2015)

Wine region Surface (ha) Statistical parameters 1961–1990 Statistical parameters 1991–2013

Min Max Range Mean STD Min Max Range Mean STD

Rv I 1.489 1741.8 2901.8 1160.0 2590.6 171.4 1943.8 3106.1 1162.3 2789.8 173.6
Rv II 1.949 2483.3 3229.2 745.9 2961.8 146.8 2657.1 3429.0 771.8 3154.3 153.0
Rv III 2.069 2243.1 3302.7 1059.6 3005.9 176.6 2423.3 3483.7 1060.4 3192.3 180.5
Rv IV 0.726 2709.6 3115.0 405.5 2999.3 83.8 2912.6 3317.4 404.8 3207.0 87.4
Rv V 1.121 1948.9 3005.4 1056.6 2836.2 175.0 2165.7 3217.3 1051.6 3049.4 176.1
Rv VI 0.993 2822.0 3257.5 435.5 3109.9 92.2 3010.6 3461.1 450.6 3311.3 92.6
Rv VII 0.542 3141.3 3374.9 233.6 3269.1 49.0 3330.6 3584.4 253.8 3466.8 51.0
Rv VIII 2.933 3139.0 3397.9 258.9 3251.5 57.4 3328.3 3579.6 251.3 3441.9 53.0
Average – 2528.6 3198.1 669.4 3003.0 119 2721 3397.3 675.8 3201.6 120.9

Plateau), the poorest in heliothermic resources between 1961
and 1990 and for this reason unsuitable for red wines produc-
tion (Teodorescu et al. 1987).
Average of PP for Romanian wine regions remains rather
constant (354 mm) between 1991 and 2013 compared to
1961–1990 (344 mm), but with important differences from
one region to another (Table 3). These differences go from a
decrease of 0.4 mm in Rv II, to an increase of 26 mm in the Rv
VI (Dobrogea), the driest wine region of Romania. PP in-
crease in Rv VI determines an +16.7 mm overcome of the
250 mm threshold of PP indicating the need for irrigation
(Oşlobeanu et al. 1991).
3.2 Analysis of IAOe averages and suitability structure
in Romania between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013
Elevated Σta and ASD amid PP constancy have increased the
IAOe average in Romania between 1961 and 2013 by
276 units, from 4399.6 units (suitability for QWW and
RTW) between 1961 and 1990, to 4675.4 units (suitability
for QRW) between 1991 and 2013 (Table 4). IAOe minimum
(3312 units) remains below the lower threshold of suitability
for wine production (3793 units), but it is 320 units higher
than between 1961 and 1990 (2992.7 units).
Statistical analysis of spatial distribution of climatic suit-
ability for wine production expressed through IAOe suitability
in Romania between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013 (Fig. 3)
shows that (Table 5): land surface with IAOe values suitable
for wine production is currently 2.4 millions hectares (Mln ha)
higher than between 1961 and 1990 (an increase from 15.0
Mln ha up to 17.4 Mln ha today); surface with IAOe values
suitable for WTW, SW, WD production decreased by 1.24
Mln ha, from 6.07 Mln ha (25.47%) between 1961 and 1990
to 4.83 Mln ha (20.28%) between 1991 and 2013; IAOe area
with suitable values for QWW is relatively constant at 3.8 Mln
ha (16%); area with IAOe values suitable to QRW increase in
Romania by 3.65 Mln ha, from 5.05 Mln ha (21.2%) between
1961 and 1990 to 8.71 Mln ha (36.57%) at present.

Table 2 Descriptive statistics for the ASD (hours, April 1st to September 30th) characterizing Romanian Wine Regions’ climate during 1961 to 1990
and 1991 to 2013 time periods. Values computed using daily data from ROCADA database (Dumitrescu and Bîrsan 2015)

Wine region Surface (mil. ha) Statistical parameters 1961–1990 Statistical parameters 1991–2013

Min Max Range Mean STD Min Max Range Mean STD

Rv I 1.489 1182.8 1372.8 189.9 1307.3 30.3 1250.2 1477.5 227.3 1409.9 37.4
Rv II 1.949 1315.0 1501.7 186.7 1418.8 40.8 1408.7 1617.3 208.6 1515.1 41.7
Rv III 2.069 1289.8 1535.1 245.3 1433.6 55.9 1356.8 1620.4 263.6 1509.4 61.9
Rv IV 0.726 1322.3 1453.7 131.4 1414.7 20.1 1421.6 1551.1 129.5 1493.6 25.1
Rv V 1.121 1317.2 1473.5 156.3 1414.3 35.8 1419.2 1578.2 159.0 1515.7 36.3
Rv VI 0.993 1418.8 1579.1 160.3 1510.2 33.8 1492.0 1681.2 189.3 1607.3 42.4
Rv VII 0.542 1492.7 1549.5 56.8 1518.6 12.4 1578.8 1662.9 84.1 1609.0 21.9
Rv VIII 2.933 1429.7 1586.5 156.8 1519.1 31.4 1505.1 1675.5 170.5 1606.4 33.0
Average – 1346 1506.4 160.4 1442.0 32.5 1429 1608 179 1533.3 37.5
Climate change impact on climate suitability 7

Table 3 Descriptive statistics for the PP (mm, April 1st to September 30th) characterizing Romanian Wine Regions’ climate during 1961 to 1990 and
1991 to 2013 time periods. Values computed using daily data from ROCADA database (Dumitrescu and Bîrsan 2015)

Wine region Surface (mil. ha) Statistical parameters 1961–1990 Statistical parameters 1991–2013

Min Max Range Mean STD Min Max Range Mean STD

Rv I 1.489 351.5 502.7 151.2 400.2 27.5 368.4 522.6 154.2 413.2 25.5
Rv II 1.949 288.5 426.3 137.8 354.6 29.2 299.0 428.4 129.4 354.2 28.7
Rv III 2.069 317.9 453.0 135.1 383.6 31.4 322.9 475.6 152.7 392.5 33.8
Rv IV 0.726 322.4 489.4 166.9 382.5 43.1 325.4 490.9 165.5 385.6 42.5
Rv V 1.121 334.4 447.6 113.2 377.2 26.8 323.8 462.2 138.5 380.9 26.7
Rv VI 0.993 198.9 269.9 71.0 239.7 15.0 213.6 292.6 79.0 266.7 15.9
Rv VII 0.542 262.2 335.0 72.8 302.8 23.1 292.6 345.0 52.4 320.4 14.5
Rv VIII 2.933 255.0 365.7 110.7 313.5 22.4 270.7 371.0 100.3 321.6 22.2
Average – 291.4 411.2 119.8 344.3 27.3 302 423.5 121.5 354.4 26.2

3.3 IAOe spatial shifts revealing climatic suitability 3.3.2 Shifts on latitude of IAOe suitability between 1961–1990
for wine production in Romania between 1961 and 2013 and 1991–2013 periods

Statistical analysis of spatial distribution of IAOe (Fig. 3) re- Data in Table 7 show that area with suitable values for wine
veals shifts both in altitude (Table 6) and latitude (Table 7) of production shifted to N 0.036° (~4 km) between 1961 and
its suitability classes. 2013 period. The fact that this shift (44,517° N to 44,553°
N) occurs within the traditional viticultural area means that it
happens over 653 m asl altitude, where new areas suitable for
3.3.1 Altitudinal shifts of climate suitability for wine wine growing appear. However, major shifts in spatial distri-
production between 1961 and 2013 bution of suitability classes occur at low altitude, in traditional
viticultural area where class I with values suitable for QRW
The upper limit of the area with IAOe values suitable for wine extends to N by 0.41° (~45.5 km) from a mean latitude of
production (class III, Max) is currently 182 m higher than the 44,488° N to a mean latitude of 44,898° N; class II with
one between 1961 and 1990 (shift from Max 653 m asl to Max IAOe values suitable for QWW + RTW production shifts to
835 m asl today) (Table 6). The area with IAOe values suitable N by 0.915° (101.2 km), from a mean latitude of 45,424° N to
for WTW, SW and WD (class III) shifted from 261.8 m asl a mean latitude of 46,339° N and narrows by 0.198° N
average altitude up to 393 m asl average altitude and dimin- (21.6 km) at Romanian level; area with IAOe values suitable
ished 1.24 Mln ha; area with IAOe suitable for WQW and for WTW, SW and WD production shifts slightly 0.09° to-
RTW (class II) shifted up 80 m, from 133 m asl average wards N (between 44.5° N and 48.2° N) and narrows slightly
altitude to 213 m asl average altitude and diminished by about 3 km; the southern limit of the area unsuitable for wine
0.03 Mln ha; area suitable for QRW (class I) shifted up 30 m production (class IV) shifts 0.036° to N (~4 km), the area
high from 57 m asl between 1961 and 1990 to 87 m asl alti- narrowing by 0.035° (3.9 km). The narrowing of the areas of
tude today. Simultaneously with shifting to higher altitudes a classes III and IV is due to their extension beyond the northern
widening of altitudinal range of suitability classes occurs of Romanian border to which our study is confined. The pattern
about 77 m for class III area and 145 m for class II area. revealed by all these latitudinal shifts suggests the displace-
ment of suitability classes II and III towards N beyond that
Table 4 Descriptive statistics for the spatial distribution of oenoclimate limit, which can be detected only through a regional study.
aptitude index (IAOe) on Romanian territory, between 1961 to 1990 and
1991 to 2013 time periods. Averages were calculated based on gridded
data for the Σta (°C), ASD (hours) and PP (mm) between 1961 to 1990
and 1991 to 2013
4 Changes in climate suitability for wine production
Time period Statistical parameters of Romanian wine regions
Min Max Range Mean STD
The increases in IAOe averages and the altitudinal and latitu-
1961–1990 2992.7 4926.3 1933.6 4399.6 327.5 dinal shifts of suitability classes between 1961 and 2013 have
1991–2013 3312.0 5188.9 1876.8 4675.4 321.9 caused major changes in climatic suitability for wine produc-
tion of Romanian wine regions.
8 L. M. Irimia et al.

Fig. 3 Gridded data of IAOe at 100 m resolution over Romania between 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013 time periods. a IAOe continuous values/
classified values for 1961 to 1990. b IAOe continuous values/classified values for 1991 to 2013

IAOe averages that characterize Romanian wine regions distribution of climatic suitability is correlated with altitude,
increased by 213.6–311.6 units between 1961 and 2013 peri- the IAOe maximum values are recorded over the lowlands and
od, the least in Rv I (Transylvania Plateau) and most in Rv V river valleys while the minimums on the hilltops and plateaus
(Crisana and Maramures Hills) (Table 8). While the spatial (Fig. 4).

Table 5 Structure of IAOe

suitability for different types of Suitability classesa Wine style suitabilityb Proportion for the 1961 to Proportion for the 1991 to
wine production over Romanian 1990 period 2013 period
territory, between 1961 to 1990
and 1991 to 2013, based on (Mln ha) % (Mln ha) %
spatial distribution of IAOe
gridded data from maps in Fig. 3 I QRW 5.05 15,0 21.20 8.71 17,4 36.57
II QWW, RTW 3.87 16.24 3.84 16.13
III WTW, SW, WD 6.07 25.47 4.83 20.28
IV Unsuitable 8.83 37.07 6.43 27.01
Total – 23.83 100 23.83 100
a
Class I = QRW; class II = QWW + RTW; class III = WTW, SW, WD; class IV = unsuitable (according to Irimia
et al. 2014)
b
QRW = quality red wines; QWW = quality white wines + RTW red table wines; WTW = white table wines, SW
sparkling wines, WD wines for distillates.
Climate change impact on climate suitability 9

Table 6 Descriptive statistics for the spatial distribution on altitude (m, asl) of IAOe suitability in Romania between 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013

Suitabilitya Altitude (m, asl) 1961–1990 Altitude (m, asl) 1991–2013

Surface (Mln ha) Min Max Range Mean STD Surface (Mln ha) Min Max Range Mean STD

Class I 5.05 0 203 203 57.4 44.7 8.71 0 333 333 87 61.4
Class II 3.87 14 352 338 133.8 62.3 3.84 50 533 483 213.4 75.2
Class III 6.07 51 653 602 261.8 97.1 4.83 156 835 679 393 94.6
Class IV 8.83 268 2503 2235 795.6 356.4 6.43 364 2503 2139 924.1 333.8
a
Class I = QRW; class II = QWW + RTW; class III = WTW, SW, WD; class IV = unsuitable

Maps in Fig. 4a, b show that Rv IV and Rv V from the
western and northwestern parts of Romania, where the plains
hold a significant proportion, along with increasing IAOe
values acquire climate suitability for the QRW between
1991 and 2013. In the lowlands of the intramontaneous Rv I
region, which is the coolest one, suitability for RTW occured
between 1991 and 2013 along the main river valleys (Fig. 4c).
In the Rv II from the eastern part of Romania, climate suit-
ability for QRW advanced up to the northern limit over the
lowlands between 1991 and 2013 (Fig. 4d). In the Rv III, Rv
VI, Rv VII and Rv VIII from the southern half of Romania,
climate suitability for QRW generally even exceeds the north-
ern limit of the traditional viticultural area of this zone on the
main river valleys (Fig. 4e).
5 Discussion
Analysis of spatial distribution of oenoclimate aptitude index
IAOe between 1961–1990 and 1991–2013 periods revealed
spatial and structural changes affecting climate suitability for
wine production in Romania as an effect of climate change. As
expected, the overall result shows altitudinal and latitudinal
shifts of climate suitability as an effect of the changes in tem-
perature, sunshine duration and precipitation.
Validity of this study is given by the use of data with high
spatial (0.1 degrees; 10 × 10 km) and temporal (daily) resolu-
tion from ROCADA data base (Dumitrescu and Bîrsan 2015);
the use of oenoclimate aptitude index IAOe (Teodorescu et al.
1987) that quantifies the combined influence of temperature,
precipitation and insolation, three essential determinants of
yield quality in grapevine (Kliewer and Lider 1970; Tregoat
et al. 2002; Dokoozlian and Kliewer 1996); the analysis of a
wide territory with great altitudinal (0–2500 m asl) and latitu-
dinal (43–48° N) extension, which allows detection of possi-
ble latitudinal and altitudinal shifts caused by climate change;
the proximity of the analyzed area to the northern limit of vine
culture (48° N), which allows the identification of possible
expansion of the viticulture area to northern, cooler zone.
Causes of shifts in suitability for wine production in
Romania between 1961 and 2013 are temperature and insola-
tion increase, amid precipitation stability. The observed evo-
lutions support this conclusion and are consistent with the
results of previous studies on climate evolution in this region
(Busuioc et al. 2010; Dumitrescu et al. 2014; Spinoni et al.
2014). According to our results, Σta increased in Romania by
187...213 °C between 1961 and 2013 period, which is in
agreement with positive trends communicated by Busuioc
et al. (2010) and Bucur and Dejeu (2016); ASD increased by
76–102 h, in accordance with the regional developments
caused by Bbrightening^ period after 1987 (Spinoni et al.
2014; Stanhill and Cohen 2001); and PP remained relatively
stable, similar to data provided for Romania by Dumitrescu
et al. (2014) and for regional developments by Karl (1998)
and Klein Tank and Kӧnnen (2003). Our data show that tem-
perature increase is more pronounced in the W of the country

Table 7 Descriptive statistics for the spatial distribution on latitude (° lat N) of IAOe suitability in Romania between 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013

Suitabilitya Statistical parameters for latitude 1961–1990 (°) Statistical parameters for latitude 1991–2013 (°)

Min Max Range Mean STD Min Max Range Mean STD

Class I 43.598 46.617 3.020 44.488 0.506 43.598 47.757 4.160 44.898 0.844
Class II 43.765 47.757 3.993 45.424 0.863 44.468 48.262 3.795 46.339 1.080
Class III 44.504 48.262 3.759 46.400 0.987 44.513 48.240 3.727 46.400 0.847
Class IV 44.517 48.131 3.614 46.351 0.821 44.553 48.100 3.547 46.316 0.823
a
Class I = QRW; class II = QWW + RTW; class III = WTW, SW, WD; class IV = unsuitable
10 L. M. Irimia et al.

Table 8 Descriptive statistics for the IAOe characterizing Romanian wine regions’ during 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013 periods. Values were
calculated based on gridded data for the Σta, ASD and PP

Wine region Surface (Mln ha) Statistical parameters IAOe 1961–1990 Statistical IAOe parameters 1991–2013

Min Max Range Mean STD Min Max Range Mean STD

Rv I 1.489 2815.3 4147.3 1332.0 3798.3 182.6 3039.8 4447.6 1407.9 4011.9 186.3
Rv II 1.949 2863.3 4714.3 1851.0 4249.0 222.1 3132.3 5004.3 1871.9 4537.2 223.5
Rv III 2.069 3041.5 4814.0 1772.5 4345.3 197.5 3313.8 5071.6 1757.8 4599.2 204.1
Rv IV 0.726 3477.7 4471.0 993.3 4275.2 146.4 3761.3 4775.7 1014.4 4561.1 148.4
Rv V 1.121 3089.5 4383.4 1293.9 4134.8 168.0 3371.5 4702.5 1331.0 4446.4 169.1
Rv VI 0.993 3870.9 4829.3 958.3 4625.1 130.7 4125.8 5106.6 980.8 4896.6 137.2
Rv VII 0.542 4480.7 4884.9 404.2 4736.4 62.5 4761.5 5144.9 383.5 5005.6 60.2
Rv VIII 2.933 4469.7 4937.0 467.3 4708.4 91.8 4722.6 5203.1 480.5 4978.3 89.3

(Rv IV and Rv V), influenced by the oceanic and
Mediterranean climates, and moderate in the southern half
(Rv III and Rv VIII). It must be noted that in relation to the
requirements of the grapevine, the average of the Σta over
Romania territory passes between 1961 and 2013 period from
a value specific to areas suitable for QWW (3003 °C) to a
value specific to areas suitable for QRW (3201 °C). These
results confirm the favorable conditions for introducing red
wine varieties within the vineyards formerly specializing in
white wine production, which was predicted for this part of
Europe by other researchers, as well (Mesterházy et al. 2014).
Changes in spatial distribution of climate suitability for
wine production in Romania between 1961 and 2013 period
are in line with the developments predicted based on climate
models by Jones et al. (2005), Malheiro et al. (2010), Fraga
et al. (2013), Hannah et al. (2013), Santos et al. (2012).
Research has confirmed: the expansion of area with climate
suitability for wine production, as a result of climate change
(+2.4 Mln hectares, which was unsuitable for wine production
between 1961 and 1990); the contraction (−1.24 Mln ha) of
area suitable for white wine production (WTW + SW + WD)
requiring a cool climate, and the increase (+3.65 Mln ha) of
area suitable for red wine production (QRW) requiring higher
helio-thermal resources. It is assumed that this change in cli-
mate suitability influences the current grapevine assortments
of temperate climate wine regions, meaning the gradual re-
placement of white wine varieties with red wine varieties,
which was predicted by Kenny and Harrison (1992), Stock
et al. (2005) and Mesterházy et al. (2014).
Altitudinal shifts of climate suitability for wine production
revealed by this study as consequences of climate change are
consistent with patterns predicted by Kenny and Harrison
(1992), Moriondo et al. (2013): expansion of area suitable
for wine production to higher altitudes—in our case an expan-
sion of 182 m, from a maximum of 653 m asl in the past to a
maximum of 835 m asl today; the shifting to higher altitudes
of classes suitable for white wines and their restraint to the top
of high relief forms of their corresponding areas is also
consistent with trends revealed at the vineyard scale by
Moriondo et al. (2011) and Irimia et al. (2017). If the increas-
ing trend of temperature and insolation specific to climate
change (IPCC 2013; Dumitrescu et al. 2014; Spinoni et al.
2014) maintains, the suitability of thermal belt between
~600 and ~800 m asl, which has just become suitable for wine
production, according to the patterns predicted by White et al.
(2006), Moriondo et al. (2011) and Irimia et al. (2017) will
shift to suitability for QWW and further to suitability for
QRW.
Latitudinal shifts found by this study are consistent with the
patterns predicted by Kenny and Harrison (1992), Jones et al.
(2005), Hannah et al. (2013), Moriondo et al. (2013) based on
climate models for the wine areas. Our research found the shift
to N of area suitable for viticulture, but this development is
extremely complex. Northern expansion of area suitable for
wine growing towards the cold zone, unsuitable in the past, is
only 0.036° between 1961 and 2013 period and occurs over
635 m asl. As opposed the spatial shifts recorded at low alti-
tude, in the traditional viticultural area, are major and about to
generate at our regional scale that Bshake-up in the geographic
distribution of wine production^ envisaged by Hannah
(Lallanilla 2013). Thus, climatic suitability for QWW moves
towards N and to higher altitudes, while climatic suitability for
QRW extends throughout lowlands deep into areas tradition-
ally producing white wines. These shifts diversify the types of
wine production within the former cooler climate wine areas.
However, they reveal a tendency to alter climate suitability for
Fig. 4 IAOe suitability spatial distribution between 1961–1990 and„
1991–2013 periods for Romanian Wine Regions. a Rv IV. b Rv V. c
Rv I. d Rv II. e Rv III, Rv VI, Rv VII and the Rv VIII
Climate change impact on climate suitability 11

1961 - 1990 1991 - 2013

N

Rv IV Rv IV

0 50 km

Rv V Rv V

0 100 km

Rv I Rv I

0 60 km

Rv II Rv II

0 100 km

Rv II
Rv II
Rv III Rv VI Rv III Rv VI
Rv VIII
Rv VII Rv VIII Rv VII
0 200 km

Wine regions IAOe suitability classes class II

Vineyards (CLC 2006) class IV class I
class III
12
wine production, by diminishing climate suitability for white
wines and replacing it with climate suitability for red wines.
Our study shows that Romanian viticulture is significantly
influenced by climate change. All the predicted consequences
generated by this phenomenon were recorded: from the detri-
mental ones, such as the loss of specific climate and wine type
production in traditional viticultural areas; to the beneficial
ones, such as the appearance of new areas suitable for wine
production and diversification of the climate suitability for
wine production in current ones. As for its influence on vine
biology, it is expected that increasing temperatures will lead to
shortening grapevine growing cycles (Webb et al. 2008) and
thus to lower grape yields (Bindi et al. 1996; Pearce and
Coombe 2004). However, in the context of climate change,
many environmental factors previously considered as restric-
tive for grapes quality in temperate continental climate condi-
tions of Romania (thick and fertile soils, northern and cool
terrain aspects, high rainfall in some regions, lack of limestone
gravels etc.) (Oşlobeanu et al. 1991; Irimia et al. 2014) may
become suitable factors, diminishing the adverse impact of
high temperatures on chemical composition of grapes and
wines.
The results of this study reveal temporal and spatial evolu-
tions in suitability for wine production generated by climate
change. However, they require adaptations regarding the in-
fluence of soil and topography. These factors cannot be ig-
nored in assessing the viticultural potential of wine growing
areas (Irimia et al. 2014). Moreover, in the context of climate
change, the extreme temperatures restricting the obtaining of
quality wines (White et al. 2006) must be taken into account,
especially because they evolve on an upward trend in this
region too (Croitoru and Piticar 2013; Irimia et al. 2017).
But until these adaptations are made, our research provides a
set of data which is useful to assess the impact of climate
change on Romanian wine areas. The study equally provides
researchers with new information that helps to better elucidate
the impact of climate change on wine regions and on their
specificity.
6 Conclusions
We have analyzed climate change impacts on spatial distribu-
tion of climate suitability for wine production in Romania for
a 52-year time period, splitted into 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to
2013 intervals. We have found major changes in the averages
of active temperatures, precipitation and sunshine duration
which shifted climate suitability for wine production over
the Romanian territory. The results of the study are in accor-
dance with the ones forecast in the last two decades which
predicted shifts in limits and specific climates of viticulture
areas as a result of climate change. The shifts in key climate
factors for viticulture areas between 1961 and 2013 over the
L. M. Irimia et al.
Romanian territory are confirmed: northward and upward al-
titudinal shifts of classes of climate suitability for wine pro-
duction; the appearance of new areas with climates suitable for
wine production; the expansion or, on the contrary, the shrink-
age of the current areas suitable for wine production; shifts in
classes of climate suitability for wine production in the current
wine regions and appearance of premises of replacing their
specific varieties and traditional wine type production. There
is also a tendency to alter climate suitability at regional scale
by diminishing suitability for white wines and replacing it
with climate suitability for red wine. The impact of climate
change on Romania’s viticulture generates both beneficial and
adverse consequences. While it expanded the area with cli-
mate suitable for wine production by 2.4 million ha, it altered
the specific climate and traditional wine type production of
current viticultural areas. The study allows in-depth analysis
from a spatial perspective of the shifts caused by climate
change in the well-known wine areas, which constitutes a
solid support for developing strategies of viticulture adapta-
tion to the new climatic context.
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Facility, University of Maryland, College Park
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