FINAL EXAM | course Title: Probability & Statistics for Business IT ; “Amor Messaoud, Ali Achouri | Lecturers: Amira Dridi, Saess scoot i ogee | | st Name: Grade | Name: 7 Les | Student ID: | Group: l | Date: January 9, 2018 ‘Working time: 120 minutes ‘Number of pages: 3 Books and notes are not permitted = Calculators are allowed = Itis not allowed to use mobile phones {tis not allowed to share writing instruments : Exercise #1 24 pts) ‘A mail-order business prides itself in its ability to fill customers’ orders in six calendar days | or less on the average. Periodically, the operations manager selects a random sample of customer orders arid determines the number of days required to fill the orders. Based on this sample information, he decides if the desired standard is not being met. He will assume that the average number of days to fill customers” orders is six or less unless the data suggest strongly otherwise. On one occasion where a sample of 41 customers was selected, the average number of days was 6.65, with a sample standard deviation of 1.5 days. Can the operations manager conclude that his mail-order business is achieving its goal? Use a significance level of 0.01 to answer the following questions. _ (3 pts) What are the null and alternative hypotheses? (4 pts) What is the test statistic and its distribution? (4 pts) Find the critical value and state the decision tule. 5 pis) What is meant by a critical value? (4 pts) Compute the value of the test statistics and decide. (4 pts) What is the expression of the p-value? aAeenr Exercise #2 20 pts) ‘The operations manager of a company th: ny that manufactures shirts wants to determine wheth: ey bed differences in the quality of workmanship among the three daily shifts. she apr “a ai $00 ea shirts and carefully inspects them. Each shirt is classified as either perfect or flawed, and the shift that produced it is also recorde her : s led. The 2 i table summarizes the number of shirts that fll into each cell. A chi-test of independence wes 1 ai it iftsd Use conducted to infer if there are any differences in quality between the three shifts’ significance level equal to 0.05. Table 2.1: Shirt condition * Shift Crosstabulation count sit Shirt condition flawed 10. git 41°% 30 A perfect pas tare 138 F870 Total 250 29015080 1. G pts) What are the null and alternative hypotheses? 2. (3 pts) What is the test statistic and its distribution? (5 pts) Find the critical value(s) and state the decision rule. (5 pts) Compute the expected frequencies. (4 pis) The observed value of the test statistic is 2.351. Decide and write the expression of the p value. ape Exercise #3 (24 pts) Sales of a product may depend on its placement in a store. Candy manufacturers frequently offer discounts to retailers who display their products more prominently than competing brands. To examine this phenomenon more carefully, a candy manufacturer (with the assistance of a national chain of restaurants) planned the following experiment. In 20 restaurants, the manufacturer's brand was displayed behind the cashier's counter with all the other brands (this was called position 1), In another 20 restaurants, the brand was placed separately but close to the other brands (position 2). In a third group of 20 restaurants, the candy was placed in a special display next to the cash register (position 3). The number of packages sold during | week at each restaurant was recorded. An ANOVA was conducted to check if there is sufficient evidence to infer that sales of candy differ according to placement. Use a significance level equal to 0.05. Table 3.1: Descriptives Sales 95% Confidence Interval for Mean N Mean Sté Deviation Std. Error__Lower Bound Upper Bound Minimum Maximum Post 1 20 24,25 6552 1,465 18,18 24,32 12 31 Pos 2 1895 5.808 1,299 16,23 2167 9 28 Post 20 18.40 7.037 4.873, 48.11 21,69 ° 30 1953 6.495 239 17,86 2121 2 31Table 3.2: ANOVA sales 7 sumotSquares__of_ Mean Square Between Groups. 7 within Groups 2397,500 87 Total 2488.933, 59 __———— ? 1. G pts) What do the values 21.25 and 6.552 represent (first row of Table 3.) 2, (pis) Write the null and alternative hypotheses 3. (2 pls) What are the assumptions of the ANOVA? eee 4. Gps) Can we assume that the populations have equal variances’ 5, (S pts) Find the critical value of the test. 6. (5 pts) Complete Table 3.2 and decide. 7. @ pts) Write the expression of the p-value of the test. Exercise #4 (32 pts) In assessing the value of radio advertisements, sponsors consider not only the total number of tRacncre but also their ages, The 18 to 34 age group is considered to spend the most mote’ pee ne the issue, the manager of an FM station commissioned a survey. One objective seo etineacute the difference in listening habits between the 18 to 34 age and 35 to 50 age groups. The survey asked 121 people in each age category how much time they spent [istening 0 FM radio per day. The results (in minutes) were recorded and a difference of moans test was conducted, Table 4.1 presents the descriptive statistics of the two samples. Table 4.1: Group Statistics, cou N Mean _St¢. Deviation Std. Error Mean Ka OO Times Group 1 421 58,99 30,773 4,946 able Group 2 121 52,96 43.318 2,740 poe * = Lange Part 1: Is there evidence that the variances of the two populations are not equal? 1, (3 pts) What are the null and alternative hypotheses? 2. G pts) What is the test statistic and its distribution? 3. (4 pts) Find the critical value and state the decision rule, Use the followii r ing results + 4. (4 pts) Compute the value of the test statistics and deci ans) lecide. What is the expression of the Part 2: Is there evidence that the two population means are different rent? 5. (Gs) What re the null nd alternative hypotheses? 6. G pts) What is the test statistic 4 (pis) What ste test statisti and is dstibution (Hint, Th 1, Resdom s esual to 216.57)? @ + The number of degrees of 1, (Gm) ied the erica valu and state the deison rule s) Compute the value of the test statistics an (Sp) tistics and decide (4 pts) Approximate the p-value of the test oe Good LuckFormulas Hypothesis testing (One population) Testing a proportion: Zsr47 Hypothesis testing (two populations) Comparing two population means: Equal variances (Independent samples) _ Estimating the difference between two population means: Equal variances (Independent samples) n,} Estimatingthe difference between two population means: Unequal variances (Independent samples) 5:Chi-squared test of independence \ test of independence (ie =f yy x df = ( i Analysis of variance atments or Between Treatments Variation (SST or SSB) SSB > 4% — 2)? ja um of Squares for tre SSW) of Squares for errors or within treatments variation (SSE ssw = Se -3 =) @-vF ae fa Sum ST or MS8) MSB = iy Mean Squares for Treatments or Mean squares Between (M: x ssw Mean Squares for Errors or Mean Squares Within (MSE or MSW JMSW = Test Statistic F = AE ~F(k— Ln =k)