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Introduction
• To understand consumption and investment
decisions made by individuals and firms
• To understand role of interest rates in
making consumption & investment
decisions
• The decision maker – Robinson Crusoe –
must choose between consumption now and
consumption in future.
• Investment is same as the decision not to
consume now.
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1
Introduction contd...
• Mr. Crusoe needs two types of information
– Understand his own subjective trade-off
between present and future consumption
– Understand feasible trade-off between present
and future consumptions that are
technologically possible (availability of
opportunities!).
• Answers
– To the first one is indifference curves and
utility
– To the second one is investment and production
3
opportunity sets
2
Fisher’s Impatient Theory: Interest
3
Subjective Interest rates
• Price of deferred consumption
• Rate of return on investment
• Individuals having different subjective
interest rates will make different choices.
4
Why Positive?
Inter-temporal framework
• For inter-temporal consumption choice, x becomes current
consumption (C0) and y becomes future consumption (C1). That
means, happiness depends on two things: current and future
consumption.
C1
U2
U1
U0
10
C0
5
Utility function
The consumer’s preferences are represented by an intertemporal utility function
u(c0,c1).
The utility maps consumption pairs into real numbers, i.e., the larger the
number the better the consumption pair.
Diminishing marginal utility of consumption
U(C0)
Observations:
• Marginal Utility >0
• DMUs
U(C0,C1)
U(C1)
Indifference Curves:
Provides various
combinations of C0 and A
C1 such that utility is
same.
B
C1
U(C0)
6
MRS: MRS decreasing:
Note : C1=C0(1+ri)
13
SRTP
Slope of the line:
How many extra units of consumption
tomorrow must be received to give up one
unit C0.
Change in C1 C1 Point A has a higher SRTP than B.
A
Change in C1
B
1 unit 1 unit C0
7
SRTP is higher at
C1 A than B Slope at B is MRS between C0 & C1
A D
B
C0
1
U (C0, C1) U (C0) U (C1)
1 ri
16
8
(Im)patience and discounting
• 1/(1+ri) is the discount factor, i.e. the factor at which future
consumption is discounted compared to current consumption. The
assumption 1/(1+ri ) < 1 means that households always prefer to
consume c this period than exactly the same amount next period.
• Patience is related to the discount factor. The lower the discount factor
the lower is the degree of patience of a consumer: consumers with low
discount factor are impatient and they prefer to consume immediately.
• For example, in the extreme case where ri = 0 agent consume all their
income in period 0 and C1 = 0 as they do not value the future.
17
Saving decisions
• Suppose the consumer stands at date zero and makes choices that will allocate
income and consumption across two dates t = 0 and 1, that we refer to as now
and then respectively.
• The consumer is endowed with some income now and then. Let y=(y0,y1)
denote the income pair, similarly let c=(c0,c1) denote the consumption pair;
each pair represents currency now and then.
• Suppose the consumer can borrow and lend at the known interest rate r. Then
the consumer selecting a consumption pair also makes a savings decision s0 =
y0 − c0; the savings choice yields (y0 − c0)(1+r) rupees then. The consumer
must make these consumption choices consistent with a budget constraint:
c y
c0 1 y0 1
1 r 1 r
c1 y0(1+r) + y1
y1 y
y0 + y1/(1+r)
y0 c0
18
9
Budget constraint
• Note that (1+r) is the absolute value of the slope
of the budget constraint and corresponds to the
increase in consumption then from each saved
now. A greater income either now or then yields a
higher budget line through the new income pair.
• A greater interest rate yields a steeper budget line,
since giving up a unit of consumption now would
permit even more consumption then.
19
Optimal consumption
• Recall that an individual maximizes his happiness subject to constraints. What
are the constraints?
• It depends on the options available for the individual to allocate his wealth
across different time periods.
• We study two options: [1] Production opportunity and [2] participation of
capital market.
• We assume the individual has endowment of Y0 and Y1 in the current and
future periods respectively. So, we can plot the endowment point on the
diagram.
• Constraint A: “With no wealth allocation across periods”, his utility is U1.
C1
C*
Y1 I2
I1
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Y0 C0
10
Optimal consumption
• The individual’s choice problem may be
characterized as a constrained maximization
problem.
• The consumer selects the consumption pair
to maximize u(c0,c1) subject to c c y y 0
1
0
1
1 r 1 r
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Solution
• The Lagrange function for this problem is
c1 y1
L ( c 0 , c1 , ) u ( c 0 , c1 ) c 0 y0
1 r 1 r
FOC
L u
0 .....( 1 . 1 )
c0 c0
L u 1
0 ....( 1 . 2 )
c1 c1 1 r
L y1 c1
y0 c0 0 ....( 1 . 3 )
1 r 1 r 22
11
Solution
• The solution to this problem is
demonstrated in Figure. The marginal rate
of substitution is the ratio of the marginal
utility of consumption now to the marginal
utility of consumption then. From (1.1) and
(1.2) it follows that
u
c0
MRS 1 r
u 1
c1
1 r 23
Interpretation
• Note that at the consumption bundle c∗, the
consumer’s marginal rate of substitution
equals SRTP as well as one plus interest
rate i.e.
MRS = SRTP = (1+ri)
• The optimality condition has a simple
interpretation; it says that at the margin c∗
the individual values consumption now in
terms of consumption then at its opportunity24
cost.
12
Production opportunity
• Allows a unit of savings/investment to be turned into more
than one unit of future consumption
• We assume that each individual in the economy has a
schedule of productive investment opportunities that can
be arranged from highest rate of return down to the lowest.
• An individual will make all investments in productive
opportunities that have rates of return higher than his or
her SRTP, ri
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Simple Investment
Opportunities Invest opportunities
A are arranged from the
highest to lowest rate
of return.
I0
X
Total Investment
13
Project Investment Rate of Return
A 1,000,000 8%
B 1,000,000 20%
C 2,000,000 4%
D 3,000,000 30%
Cum Output
Project ROA (1+r) Investment Capital (C_1)
D 1.3 3 3 3.9
B 1.2 1 4 1.2
A 1.08 1 5 1.08
C 1.04 2 7 2.08
Total 8.26
8 0, 8.26
C_1 is obtained as 6.18 – 1.08 = 5.1
6 2, 6.18
C_1
2
C_1 is obtained as 3.9 – 3.9 = 0
0 7, 0
0 2 4 6 8
C_0
14
Marginal Rate of Transformation
• Rate at which a Re of consumption
foregone today is transformed by productive
investment into a Re of consumption
tomorrow.
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ui [W ( I1 )]
MRT01i MRT01A MRT01B
ui [W ( I 0 )] B
(1 ri ) rA rB
30
15
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Marginal Rate of Return
(Future consumption – future endowment)
Production Opportunity Set (POS)
C1
A
Low rates of
return
High
High rates of
return
y1
endowment
Low point
B
I0 I1 Total investment y0 C0
(current endowment – current consumption)
I0
I1
Production Opportunity
• Total investment in the current period is equal to current period endowment
minus current consumption (i.e., Investment = Y0-C0)
• With this in mind, we can plot the constraint on the C0-C1 space.
• We call this constraint the production opportunity set (POS).
• The slope of the POS is now called the Marginal Rate of Transformation
(MRT) offered by the production/investment opportunity set.
• Investment (or dis-investment) means the individual can move its consumption
point along POS.
• Point A is the initial endowment solution
C1 Slope: Rate at which one unit
of consumption foregone
today is transformed by
productive investment into
future consumption (MRT).
Y1 A
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Y0 C0
16
PUTTING TOGETHER THE POS AND PREFERENCES
C1
In the absence of production
the individual would be forced
to consume at the endowment
point
y1
The endowment U0
point
y0 C0
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C1
Small vertical arrow
- amount needed to be equally well
off in utility terms (ρ)
Large vertical arrow
- amount of return to deferring consum
today and undertaking investment
y1 0
1
U0
y
0 C
Individuals will make all investments in the production opportunity set0
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that have rates of return higher than his or her subjective rate of time preference
17
PUTTING TOGETHER THE POS AND PREFERENCES
This is the point where
C1 MRT = MRS
(slope of = (slope of
POS) indifference
curve)
y1 0 U1
The endowment
point U0
I0
y0 C0
Message: Production opportunities allow individuals to achieve a higher 35
level of utility – i.e. Move to U1 > U0
18
C1 Slope: Rate at which one unit of
Slope= -(1+ri) consumption foregone today is
transformed by productive investment
into future consumption (MRT).
B
P1= C1
U2
y1
U1
A
P0= C0 y0 C0
19
A few important observations:
Individual 2
y1
y0 C0
1
MRS 01 MRT011 MRS 012 MRT012
Individual 1 prefers consuming more at C1
Individual 2 prefers consuming more at C0
20
Capital market
1. Inter-temporal exchange of consumption bundles will be
represented by the opportunity to borrow or lend unlimited
amounts at r, a market determined rate of interest .
2. Capital market facilitate the transfer of funds between
lenders and borrowers.
3. Interest rate is positive: Any amount of funds lent today will
return interest plus principal at the end of the period.
X1 = X0 + r X0 = X0 (1+r)
Capital market
• Now, instead of one individual, let’s assume there are many individuals in the
economy. Some are lenders, while others are borrowers. Among them, there
are opportunities to borrow and lend at the market-determined interest rate (r).
• We can then graph the borrowing and lending opportunities along the capital
market line.
• Now, we introduce the concept of wealth. Wealth of an individual is the
present value of his current and future endowment. Thus,
C1 W0 = Y0 + Y1/(1+r)
W1 = Y0(1+r) + Y1
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Consumption Decision with Capital Market
C1
Capital Market Line: Slope = -(1+r)
W1
C*1
U2
A
y1 U1
SRTP= -(1+ri)
C0
C*0 y0 W0
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2. W0 = C*0 + C*1/(1+r)
Observation: Moving along the capital line does not change one’s
wealth, but it does offer different pattern of consumption.
22
Production and capital market
Constraint: Individuals can now borrow/lend at r & invest in production opportunities.
• With only production opportunity, the individual achieve U2 only. But if capital
market is introduced, he can actually do better.
• At point B , the individual can borrow more money at rate r from the capital market,
and be able to invest more and get return higher than r. At B, the borrowing rate
(CML slope) is less than the rate of return on the marginal investment (slope of POS).
• Further investment returns more than the cost of borrowed funds, individual will
continue to invest until C , where the return on the marginal investment is equal to the
market interest rate r.
• Furthermore, individual can reach any point on the market line (why?). Since SRTP at
C is greater than the market return, he will consume more than P0, which is the current
payoff from the production. By borrowing, he reaches point D on CML. Optimal
consumption is found as (C*0, C*1) where subjective time preference just equals
market rate of return. Utility increases from U1 to U3.
B
P1= C1
U2
y A U1
P0= C0
y
0
23
Consumption & Investment Decision with
Capital Market
Step 2: Mr. Crusoe with capital market
P1
C
C* D U3
1 B U2
Market Line
A
y1 U1
P0 C*0 y0 W0 W*0
24
Fisher’s Separation Theorem:
Given perfect and complete capital market, the
production decision is governed solely by an
objective market criterion (represented by max.
wealth) without regard to individual’s subject time
preferences that enter into their consumption
decision.
In equilibrium, the MRS for all investors is equal to the market rate of
interest, and this in turn is equal to MRT for productive investment.
Consumption
*
* *
U’ * U’’’
U’’
0 Production
U0 0 U0 0 U0
Production alone Capital Market Alone Both Capital Market & Production
50
25
The Inter-temporal Consumption Choice
Consumption
Consumption Consumption
*
* *
U’ * U’’’
U’’
0 Production
U0 0 U0 0 U0
Production alone Capital Market Alone Both Capital Market & Production
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C1
Individual 2
P*1
Individual 1
Y1
52
P*0 Y0 W*0 C0
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1. In the figure below, the downward sloping straight line connecting the points (0,5) and (4,0)
represents the opportunities for investment in the capital market, and the downward sloping curved
line connecting the points (0,4) and (2.6,0) represents the opportunities for investment in physical
capital (e.g. plant and machinery). The only asset at time 0 is Rs2.6 million in cash (initial
endowment). There is no additional endowment present at time 1. Please answer the following
questions related to the figure:
a. What is the interest rate, r, and what is the slope of the capital market line?
b. How much should be invested in physical capital (plant and equipment), and how much will this
investment be worth next year?
c. What is the present value (PV) and net present value (NPV) of this investment?
d. What is the optimal consumption at times 0 and 1?
e. How much is borrowed or lent at time 0
54
27
Consider two individuals
C1 Both individuals 1 and 2
make the same investment
decision: both produce at *,
and by using capital markets,
borrow or lend to achieve
their own optimum consumption point
Individual 1
(stronger preference
for current consumption)
C0
55
28
How to max shareholder’s wealth?
• We again uses Fisher Separation Theorem
• Given perfect and complete capital markets, the owners of the firm
(shareholders) will unanimously support the acceptance of all projects until
the least favourable project has return the same as the cost of capital.
• In the presence of capital markets, the cost of capital is the market interest
rate.
• The project selection rule, i.e., equate
marginal rate of return of investment = cost of capital (market interest rate)
• Is exactly the same as the net present value rule:
Net Present Value Rule
• Calculate the NPV for all available (independent) projects. Those with
positive NPV are taken.
At the optimal:
NPV of the least favourable project ~= zero
• This is a rule of selecting projects of a firm that no matter how individual
investors of that firm differ in their own opinion (preferences), such rule is
still what they are willing to direct the manager to follow.
57
29
Marketplaces and Transaction
Costs
• In absence of transaction costs, there is no
need for a central location for exchange. i.e.
there is no need for a marketplace per se.
• Consider an economy with N producers.
Each producing a specialized product and
consuming a bundle of N consumption
goods.
59
1 3
4
5 individuals = 10 trips 10T cost
5
30
Transactions Costs and Capital Market
1. With nontrivial transaction cost, financial intermediaries
and market place will provide a useful service.
D
FIs
A C
B
2. Intermediaries will ask for a premium: Borrowing rate
will be typically higher than the lending rate.
Individual B
C1 Lending rate
PB1 B
PA1 A
Borrowing rate
Individual A
C0
PB0 PA0
31
Principal-Agent Problem
• Principals = Shareholders, Agent = Manager of the firm.
• Ownership ≠ control, so there is no reason to believe that managers
will always act in the best interest of the shareholders (Consider all the
accounting scandals)
- If the shareholders can costlessly monitor management decisions, they
can be sure that management really does make every decision in a way
that maximizes their wealth
- In reality, owners must incur non-trivial monitoring costs in order to
keep the manager in line => owners (shareholders) face a trade-off
between monitoring costs and forms of compensation that will cause
the agent to always act in the owners interest
63
Numerical Example
• Assume individuals can borrow and lend, but no production
• Suppose that the utility function for consumption is
U = log(C0) + [1/(1+ )] log(C1)
• The individual’s wealth is given by the equation
• W = y0 + [1/(1+R)]y1
• where R is the rate of interest and
• is the subjective rate of time preference
• If an individual is to maximize utility, then we know that the present
value of consumption must equal wealth: W = y0 + [1/(1+R)]y1
64
32
The Optimization Problem
• Set up the constrained optimization problem
• L = log(C0) + [1/(1+ )] log(C1) + [ W – C0 – C1/(1+R)]
• The first order conditions
• L/C0 = (1/C0) - = 0 = 1 / C0
• L/C1 = (1/(1+ )) (1/C1) - /(1+R) = 0 = [(1+R)/(1+)] (1/
C1)]
• [1 / C0] = [(1+R)/(1+)] (1/ C1)]
• C0* = [(1+ )/(1+ R)] C1*
C1
– If = R C0* = C1*
– If > R C0* > C1*
– If < R C0* < C1*
C1*
U
C0
C0* 65
66
33
Homework
• Graphically demonstrate that in a world of certainty, the
introduction of capital market will benefit TWO different
individuals with different preferences. In the graph, show
that one of them is a lender, while the other is a borrower.
67
Storage
• For an individual to benefit from storage (assuming non-perishable
goods and no storage costs,
• [slope of the indifference curve] < 1 (in absolute value)
• dC1/dC0 = -(1- ) [U'(C0)/ U'(C1)]
• and assuming log utility:
• dC1/dC0 = [-(1- )](1/C0) / (1/C1) = [-(1- )]C1/C0
• In other words, simple storage makes an individual better off if
• (1+ ) C1/C0 < 1 or (1+ ) < C0/C1
• Again, this assumes log utility i.e. storage may be beneficial if C0 is
high relative to C1
68
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