IRAN SAUDI RAPPROCHEMENT AND ITS

IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

A Research Proposal Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

for the subject of
Research Thesis (IR-420)
in
BS INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
by
Javeria Muneer
To
Dr. Mian Tahir Ashraf

DEPARTMENT OF INTERNTIONAL RELATIONS

BAHAUDDIN ZAKARIYA UNIVERSITY,
MULTAN
January, 2024
Iran Saudi rapprochement and its impact on Pak
Chapter No. Contents Page No
1 Introduction: 1
1.1 Problem Statement: 1
1.2 Objectives of the Study: 2
1.3 Research questions: 2
1.4 Significance of the Study: 2
1.5 Limitations of the Study: 2
1.6 Literature Review: 3
1.7 Methodology of Study: 3
1.8 Theoretical Framework: 4
2 Historical Background: 5
2.1 Iranian Revolution _1979: 5
2.2 Arab spring _ 2012: 6
2.3 Syrian War _2011: 7
2.4 The 2015 Yemen War: 8
2.5 Mecca Stampede_ 2015: 8
2.6 Blockade of Qatar in 2017: 9
2.7 US pulls out of nuclear deal with Iran in 2018: 10
2.8 Qassem Soleimani death_2020: 10
2.9 Iran Saudi hold talks: 11

3 The motives behind détente: 12

3.1 Iran’s motivations: 12
3.1(a) Combating Israel’s _US _ influence: 12
3.1(b) Economic sanctions: 13
3.1(c) Regional Impact: 13
3.2 Saudi’s motivations: 13
3.2(a) The 2030 Vision of Saudi Arabia: 13
3.2(b) Concerns about security: 13
3.2(c) Political factors: 14
3.3 China’s role: 14
4 .Implications for Pakistan
4.1Security consideration:
4.1(a) Energy security:
4.1(b) Stability in the region:
4.1(b)(i)Attempts to combat terrorism:
4.1(b)(ii)Humanitarian Concerns and Refugee :

4.1(b)(ii)Humanitarian Concerns and

Refugee :
4.1(c) Diaspora security:
4.1(c) (i) Security and Safety of the
Individual:
4.1(c) (ii) Diplomatic Relations and
Consular Services:
4.2 Financial ramifications:
4.2(a) Market accessibility and trade
diversification:
4.2(b) Infrastructure Development and
Promoting Development in Pakistan:
4.2(c)Regional Stability and Economic
Integration:
4.2(d)Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Inflows:
4.3 Energy collaboration:
4.4 Religious influence
4.4(a) Sectarian Dynamics and Religious
 Harmony:
4.4(b) Possibility of Lowering Sectarian
Tensions:
4.4(c) Diplomatic Balancing Act:
References References
Chapter 1
Introduction:
The geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East have long been characterized by enduring tensions
and rivalries, with Iran and Saudi Arabia playing central roles in regional power struggles. These
influential nations have historically stood on opposing sides, reflecting the Shia-Sunni sectarian
divide, and competing for dominance in the region.The division of the Middle East into Arab and
non-Arab states is a consequence of the Iran-Saudi rivalry. However, recent diplomatic
breakthroughs suggest a potential shift in this dynamic a reconciliation between Iran and Saudi
Arabia. This emerging trend holds paramount significance not only for the region but also for
Pakistan .This research aims to explore the intricate relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia
and evaluate its implications for Pakistan.
Iran and Saudi Arabia, longstanding rivals in the Middle East, recently declared their intention to
restore diplomatic ties and reopen their respective embassies. This historic breakthrough,
brokered by China during talks in Beijing, aims to resume diplomatic relations within two
months. The severance of diplomatic ties in 2016, following the Saudi execution of Shia cleric
Nimr Al-Nimr, has been a major point of contention.The recent reconciliation is viewed as a
positive step toward resolving longstanding tensions in the Middle East.
The normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia presents both implications and
opportunities for Pakistan, given its geographical proximity to Iran, historical partnership with
Saudi Arabia, and strategic alliance with China. Pakistan, while claiming neutrality, has
historically tilted toward Saudi Arabia, influenced by economic dependence and religious
affiliation. Efforts have been made by Pakistan to mediate between the two nations, with Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif and later Prime Minister Imran Khan expressing the intent to act as
mediators. The recent restoration of diplomatic ties is a significant development that Pakistan
welcomes as a positive step toward regional peace and stability.

1.1 Problem Statement:

The potential rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia introduces a complex geopolitical
scenario with far-reaching consequences for the region, particularly Pakistan. This study seeks to
investigate the multifaceted challenges and opportunities arising for Pakistan in the wake of
improved relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A comprehensive examination of the impact

1
on Pakistan's diplomatic, economic, and security dynamics is essential to understanding potential
shifts in alliances, trade relations, and security arrangements.
1.2 Objectives of the Study:
The following are the goals this study seeks to accomplish:
 Provide an in-depth analysis of the historical context of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations,
highlighting factors fueling their rivalry over the years.
 Examine recent signs of rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, including
diplomatic-engagements, economic collaborations, and regional cooperation.
 Assess the potential impact of the Iran-Saudi rapprochement on Pakistan, considering
various dimensions such as security, trade, energy, and religious influences.

1.3 Research questions:

In following questions of study are given:

1. How have historical factors and events shaped the rivalry between Iran and Saudi
Arabia?
2. What are the underlying motivations for these diplomatic overtures, economic
collaborations, and regional cooperation efforts?
3. How might the potential rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia impact Pakistan
in terms of security considerations, trade relations, energy cooperation, and religious
influences .

1.4 Significance of the Study :

This study is significant as it offers a comprehensive understanding of how the evolving
relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia may shape the foreign policy decisions and security
considerations of Pakistan. Timely and crucial for policymakers, scholars, and analysts interested
the dynamics of the Middle East and South Asian regions.

1.5 Limitations of the Study:

Every research study has limitations, and it is essential to acknowledge these to provide a
transparent understanding of the scope and boundaries. This study may tend to focus more on
geopolitical and state-centric perspectives, potentially neglecting cultural, social, and
humanitarian considerations. The analysis might prioritize state-level actors, political
implications, and economic factors, potentially overlooking the nuanced and multifaceted nature
of the diplomatic shift.
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1.6 Literature Review:
Literature review for the topic “The Iran-Saudi Rapprochement and its Impact on Pakistan” would
involve examining existing research, scholarly articles, and publications related to the historical
context of Iran-Saudi relations, the evolving dynamics in their relationship, and the potential
implications for Pakistan. Iran’s revolutions 1979 changed the political and security landscape of
the Middle East. Particularly, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran became atypical in the
region (Mebon,2015).Recently, China has developed relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China, under Xi Jinping, is altering the regional order and global strategic order. China is a
close friend of Pakistan and have historical relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia- China has
harmonized relations between two old rival in the Middle East. “China remained Iran’s strongest
ally on the Security Council and it had been involved in modernizing Iran’s military, and
engineering services for oil” (Graver,2006).The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has
defused tension between Iran and other regional countries those had distanced themselves in
support of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Motamedi, 2023).
Commenting on the recent détente, various international scholars concur upon major shifts,
occurring in the world, as the primary causal factors to bringing together the two warring nations
on a negotiating table.The first one on which many political commentators agree, like Anna Jacobs,
political analyst, Gulf States, is the diminishing role of the United States in the global affairs,
especially in the Gulf States.
In this research study I specifically work on Economic consequences for Pak in the context of
improved relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.Consider trade opportunities, investments, and
economic cooperation.

1.7 Methodology of Study:

A research study on the Iran-Saudi rapprochement and its impact on Pakistan will employ
secondary data and qualitative sources. Secondary data from existing academic literature, official
documents, and media analyses will form the foundation. Qualitative sources, such as expert
interviews and content analysis of media discourse, will provide nuanced insights into the
perspectives of key stakeholders. This approach ensures a holistic understanding of the
geopolitical, cultural, and social dimensions surrounding the rapprochement.

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This revised version aims to retain the original meaning while avoiding plagiarism. Always ensure
to properly cite and reference your sources when presenting information obtained from external
works.

1.8 Theoretical Framework:

The theoretical lens through which we comprehend the potential repercussions of the Iran-Saudi
rapprochement on Pakistan lies in the field of international relations theories. Realism, a
prevailing theory in international relations, posits that states primarily operate in their self-
interest, motivated by the pursuit of power and security. This perspective proves insightful when
examining the context of the Iran-Saudi rapprochement and its potential implications for
Pakistan.
According to the renowned realist scholar Kenneth Waltz, as articulated in his work "Theory of
International Politics," states exist within an anarchic system, lacking an overarching authority.
Within such a self-help system, states prioritize survival and security, often resulting in the
emergence of balance of power dynamics. This theoretical framework provides a foundation for
exploring how changes in the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia might prompt Pakistan
strategically recalibrate its foreign policy. The emphasis on survival and security, as emphasized
by realism, becomes particularly relevant in understanding how states navigate their alliances
and interests within intricate geopolitical landscape.

4
 Chapter 2:
Historical Background:
Iran and Saudi Arabia have a long and complex history that covers several centuries and has been
influenced by a wide range of geographical, political, and religious factors. Competition between
Sunni and Shia groups gave rise to the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. While Saudi Arabia
has Mecca and Medina, Iran has the largest Shia majority in the world. Most people who live there
are Sunnis. This theological divide has greatly influenced their historical interactions.

2.1 Iranian Revolution _1979:

An important turning point in Middle Eastern history was the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which
affected Iran’s complicated relationship with Saudi Arabia as well as the region as a whole. This
incident significantly altered the competition that already existed between the two countries, raising
the stakes and adding a powerful element of geopolitics, religion, and ideology.The region suffered
by the revolution’s success in overthrowing the Shah and installing Ayatollah Khomeini as the
leader of the Islamic Republic. Khomeini immediately challenged Saudi Arabia’s regional
leadership and its close links to the West with his anti-Western rhetoric and calls for an Islamic
revolution throughout the Muslim world.Iran has raised concerns about its backing of Shia parties
in neighbouring nations, particularly in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, which has a large
Shia population.
Andrew Leber, a researcher at Harvard University who focuses on Saudi policymaking,
emphasizes the importance of the millions of Muslim pilgrims who come to Saudi Arabia every
year. Saudi Arabia deliberately highlights its position as the defender of the two holy sites, which is
central to its self-image, in terms of foreign policy. This includes making sure that pilgrimages are
successful, which is consistent with its main ideology of fostering relationships with other
countries that share the predominant Sunni community, such as Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, and
the Gulf Arab states. The competition was further exacerbated by the fact that Saudi Arabia is
Sunni and Iran is mostly Shia. Each nation sought to establish itself as the head of the Islamic
world, which heightened tensions and fueled hostilities in nations like Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Iranian Revolution played a pivotal role in shaping the Iran-Saudi rivalry by introducing
ideological and religious dimensions that fueled competition for influence in the region.
5
2.2 Arab spring _ 2012:
The Arab Spring, a wave of revolutions that swept the Middle East and North Africa between 2010
and 2012, had a significant impact on the region’s geopolitical environment. The intensification of
already-existing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of the major powers in the area, was
one of the main effects. Iran and Saudi Arabia both saw opportunities to further their geopolitical
goals during the Arab Spring. Iran saw an opportunity to increase its influence from the upheavals
because of its anti-establishment stance and revolutionary zeal. Tehran sought to strengthen its
influence in nations going through political instability by deliberately aiding Shiite communities
and backing groups. Saudi Arabia was concerned about this proactive attitude because it saw
Iranian involvement as a challenge to both its own control and the stability of the region.
Long-standing rivalries were heightened by the ensuing struggle for influence. The ideological
conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran, a revolutionary state, and the conservative monarchy
of Saudi Arabia was intensified by the Arab Spring. Iran, which was looking to promote its
revolutionary philosophy, saw an opportunity to challenge the established order in the area and
expand its influence through the revolutions. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, tried to prevent
Iranian objectives and preserve the status quo out of concern of the revolutions’ destabilising
impact. Their rivalry was made more complex by this ideological conflict, which transformed the
Arab Spring into a conflict between divergent ideas about Middle Eastern administration.
Throughout the Arab Spring, the hostility between Shia-majority Iran and Sunni-majority Saudi
Arabia was exacerbated by their sectarian division.
Due to Iran and Saudi Arabia’s sponsorship of opposing factions in several regional hotspots, the
Arab Spring resulted in proxy warfare. Their rivalry was centred on the political unrest in Yemen
and the civil conflict in Syria. Saudi Arabia supports some parties while Iran supports the Houthi
rebels in Yemen and the Assad regime in Syria. The clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran was
heightened by these proxy wars, which also fueled other regional crises.

2.3 Syrian War _2011:

The long-running conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been exacerbated by the Syrian war,
which has become the centre of their geopolitical and sectarian rivalry. The two regional powers
were able to exert influence and affect the outcome of the conflict in accordance with their strategic

6
goals. Iran’s determination to keep an ally with a Shiite majority in the area is the fundamental
reason for its unwavering support for the Assad government. By accomplishing this, Iran
strengthens a corridor of Shiite dominance by securing an important geopolitical foothold and
extending its influence along an arc from Tehran to Beirut. Iran’s larger regional agenda revolves
around this strategic alignment, which supports its goal of dominating the Middle East.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia sees the Syrian war as a chance to reduce Iranian influence.
Aiming to reduce Iran’s influence in the area, Riyadh has aggressively backed a number of Sunni
rebel groups, including those that want Bashar al-Assad to be overthrown. The competition is
heightened by the sectarian nature of the Syrian conflict, as Saudi Arabia supports Sunni interests
in opposition to the Shiite-led Assad regime. In addition to making the humanitarian situation in
Syria worse, this sectarian division widens the rift between the two regional powerful rivals.The
success of Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s proxy wars is also being tested in the Syrian conflict. Iran’s
commitment to upholding the Assad government is demonstrated by the country’s deployment of
Shiite militias like Hezbollah .
Thus, the struggle for influence in Syria shows up not just in the form of military backing but also
in the capacity to influence the political environment that emerges after battle. Moreover, Iran has
been able to take advantage of its relationship with Russia, another significant regional player, as a
result to the Syrian conflict. Iran’s strategic depth has increased due to Moscow and Tehran’s tight
coordination in supporting the Assad regime, which has an impact on the balance of power in the
region. In addition to strengthening Iran’s geopolitical position, this partnership calls into question
the conventional roles of outside parties in the Middle East and helps to reshape alliances.

2.4 The 2015 Yemen War:

An important flashpoint in the long-running conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the Yemeni
War, which broke out in 2015. The engagement of these two regional powers has dramatically
increased the war’s complexity and human cost, even if Yemen’s internal political and social
problems are what initially sparked the conflict.Iran, a country with a Shia majority, is viewed with
distrust and fear by Saudi Arabia, a Sunni majority country. The Houthis, a group of Zaydi Shia
Muslims who became prominent in Yemen’s civil war, belong to this branch of Shia Islam. Saudi
Arabia views the Houthis’ ascent as a direct challenge to its regional power and Sunni supremacy,
even though the amount of Iran’s assistance for them is open for discussion.
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Iran, similar to Saudi Arabia, believes it has the right to govern the Middle East. They fight for
supremacy in a number of nations, such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Another venue for this battle
was Yemen, which is strategically situated on the Red Sea. The Iranian presence in Yemen is seen
by Saudi Arabia as a serious invasion on its territory.Politics inside also played a role in Saudi
Arabia’s engagement in Yemen. In order to strengthen his reputation as a strong and capable leader
at home, newly minted Prince Mohammed bin Salman set out in 2015. He presented the operation
as a vital step in thwarting Iranian aggression and defending Saudi Arabia’s security.
Since the Obama administration approached the Middle East cautiously, Iran and Saudi Arabia
both looked to fill the void. The dispute was exacerbated by the US’s limited participation in
Yemen, which gave both nations more freedom to pursue their own agendas.There are terrible
aftereffects of the Yemeni War. In addition to millions of people being uprooted, suffering from
severe food insecurity, and contracting diseases, the UN estimates that over 377,000 people have
died. Yemen is now experiencing one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes in history as a result
of the war.

2.5 Mecca Stampede_ 2015:

Unquestionably, the 2015 Mecca stampede during the Hajj pilgrimage exacerbated already-existing
tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, turning into a hot spot in their rivalry for a number of
reasons:
Accusations and Place-Blame:Following the catastrophic stampede that resulted in almost 2,300
deaths, Iran harshly condemned the Saudi authorities for its poor planning and incompetence
throughout the pilgrimage. They charged that the Saudi authorities were ill-prepared for
emergencies, had inadequate infrastructure, and could not control crowds. Saudi Arabia strongly
defended how it handled the Hajj, rejecting any fault and blaming the event on a number of things,
such as the enormous number of pilgrims, the disregard for safety guidelines, and other influences.
Politicization of the Hajj: Iran stopped taking part in the Hajj pilgrimage in 2016, claiming worries
for the safety of its citizens and displeasure with Saudi Arabia’s handling of the situation. Since the
Hajj serves as a unifying force for Muslims worldwide and Iran’s absence was interpreted as a
powerful statement of their anger, this signalled a significant escalation. Using the tragedy to serve
their own political agendas, both sides waged media campaigns. Saudi media accused Iran of

8
politicising the situation and using it to weaken their regional power, while Iranian media depicted
Saudi Arabia as careless and unqualified to oversee the Hajj.
The stampede event damaged mutual trust between the two nations, making it much more
challenging for them to have fruitful conversations and settle outstanding issues. Because some
saw the incident as an attack on Shia pilgrims, it also heightened sectarian tensions between Sunnis
and Shias. This deepened the divide between Saudi Arabia, a country with a majority of Sunnis,
and Iran, a country with a majority of Shia citizens.
Concerned about pilgrims’ safety, the international community scrutinised Saudi Arabia’s Hajj
operations more closely. This increased pressure on Saudi Arabia to upgrade its infrastructure and
safety protocols. As a unifying event for all Muslims, the Hajj’s future as a result of this occurrence
is a cause for concern. It also weakened Muslim solidarity. The stampede in Mecca in 2015
contributed significantly to the escalation of hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It acted as a
sobering reminder of both the perils of politicising religious events and the brittleness of regional
security. Even if the tragedy cannot be held entirely responsible for the rivalry's continuation, it is
unquestionably still a major source of discontent and a representation of the two states’ long-
standing differences.

2.6 Blockade of Qatar in 2017:

The already strained relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia were substantially influenced by the
17 embargo of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt. The coalition
led by Saudi Arabia charged Qatar with being closely associated with Iran and aiding terrorism,
charges that Qatar firmly opposed. The basis for this charge was Qatar’s autonomous foreign
policy, which included hosting the divisive Al Jazeera news network and preserving diplomatic ties
with Iran.
As a result of its neighbours’ isolation, Qatar looked to Iran for political and economic support.
This improved the two nations’ relationship and caused Saudi Arabia to worry about Iranian
influence in the area. The Gulf Cooperation Council, a political and economic coalition including
six Gulf states, was shattered by the blockade. This disintegration undermined regional stability
and gave Iran more openings to take advantage of differences amongst Arab nations. The wider
Iran-Saudi rivalry now includes the Qatari conflict as a new battleground. Iran criticises the

9
blockade as an attempt to curb dissent, while Saudi Arabia depicts Qatar as an Iranian puppet. Both
sides used the situation to pursue their own interests.
A scary moment occurred in 2017 when Riyadh managed to intercept a ballistic missile that was
passing over the airport. Iran is said by Saudi Arabia to have supplied the missile to the Houthi
rebels in Yemen. Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince, told Boris Johnson of the UK that
Iran’s actions appeared to be an open declaration of war on the country.

2.7 US pulls out of nuclear deal with Iran in 2018:

The ongoing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran was significantly impacted by the United
States’ decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear accord. In the already unstable Middle East,
tensions increased with the reinstatement of sanctions against Iran. Iran was forced to forge closer
ties with its neighbours and adopt a more assertive foreign policy as a result of the action, which
increased its feeling of isolation and mistrust towards the US. Saudi Arabia, a longtime friend of
the United States, on the other hand, applauded the decision and tried to take advantage of the
circumstances to reduce Iranian influence in the area. This heightened the two countries’ already-
existing geopolitical rivalry, which has resulted in proxy wars throughout the Middle East,
including those in Yemen and Syria. The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, therefore,
played a pivotal role in shaping and exacerbating the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia,
contributing to the complex dynamics of regional geopolitics.
Both Saudi Arabia and Israel applauded President Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal of the
United States from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018. In an interview with US television, Saudi
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman issued a dire warning: “We will follow suit as soon as
possible” if Tehran obtains a nuclear weapon. Additionally, the prince called Iran's supreme leader
“the new Hitler.”

2.8 Qassem Soleimani death_2020:

The already tense competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran was greatly altered by the
assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a senior Iranian military commander, in January 2020. In
charge of Iran’s military activities and backing for proxy organizations, Soleimani was a pivotal
player in the country’s regional influence. He served as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps' Quds Force. The killing of him by an American drone attack increased Middle East

10
tensions and widened the rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran accused the US and its regional
allies, Saudi Arabia included, of carrying out the strike, viewing it as a direct insult. Iran was even
more determined to fortify its regional relationships and fend off perceived foreign threats as a
result of this incident. Conversely, Saudi Arabia cautiously navigated the aftermath, expressing
concerns about escalating tensions but also emphasizing its commitment to regional stability .The
killing of Soleimani thus contributed to the intensification of the Iran-Saudi rivalry, adding another
layer of complexity to the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.

2.9 Iran Saudi hold talks:

The first direct discussions between Saudi Arabia and Iran after their formal ties were severed took
place in April 2021. The host was Baghdad. Four rounds of negotiations were undertaken last year
between April and September, with Iraq and Oman serving as the primary mediators. Following the
fifth round of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a senior advisor to Khamenei demanded
that the Saudi and Iranian embassies be reopened Xi Jinping, the president of China, travelled to
Saudi Arabia to meet with Mohammed bin Salman. In February, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
travels to China to meet with Xi. The decision to restore relations is announced by Tehran and
Riyadh the following month.

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Chapter 3:

3.The motives behind detente:

In the agreement negotiated by China, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced on March 10, 2023, the
restoration of their diplomatic ties. A Joint Trilateral Statement was used to welcome the revival of
diplomatic relations. It said that both states will accomplish bilateral collaboration in a variety of
fields and that embassies would reopen in two months. The motivations behind Iran Saudi
rapprochement are given in following:

3.1 Iran’s motivations:

3.1(a) Combating Israel’s _US _ influence:
China mediated a recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran that goes beyond merely
restoring relations. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC are among the Iranian officials who saw
it as an opportunity to collaborate with China and Russia in the establishment of an anti-Western
global order. Their goal is to create a regional agreement without the US getting involved.
Rebuilding relations with Saudi Arabia is not the primary objective for Khamenei and the IRGC.
This deal is a step towards their larger goal, in their eyes. According to Khamenei, the Islamic
world and the West are at odds. The ultimate goal of the Islamic Revolution is to establish an
Islamic civilization headed by Shiite Islamists in Iran. They can get closer to that objective with
this arrangement, especially if they have strong allies on their side.The Islamic Republic now sees
the United States and the world order it leads as the primary hurdle. The tyranny has been
attempting to destroy the legitimacy of the West for years. Surprisingly in order to complete this,
Khamenei has formed alliances with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir
Putin.In November 2022, Khamenei outlined a vision for a new order focused on “isolating the
United States, shifting power to Asia, and expanding the anti-West resistance front,” with the
Islamic Republic taking the lead.

Khamenei’s regime aims to use the China-brokered deal not to promote peace but to disrupt it.
Their focus is on undermining the U.S.-negotiated Abraham Accords. The IRGC is actively
working to stop more Arab states from normalizing ties with Israel, which they see as a “cancerous
12
tumor” that needs to be eradicated.The Iranian regime thinks the China-brokered deal achieves two
things: it slows down more Arab countries from joining the Abraham Accords and weakens the
influence of the United States in the Middle East.
The IRGC has set up secretive financial routes globally, including in South America, to evade U.S.
and European oil sanctions. Recent reports reveal their involvement in smuggling gold to and from
Venezuela. The resurgence of anti-U.S. sentiments in South America allows Khamenei’s regime to
expand its network beyond Venezuela. Despite the positive appearance of the China-brokered Iran-
Saudi deal, a closer look suggests that Khamenei and the IRGC are using it to harm the West,
Arab-Israeli peace efforts, and the U.S.-led international order. Their actions emphasize that a U.S.
withdrawal from the Middle East would create a vacuum, empowering anti-Western forces.

3.1(b) Economic sanctions:

Crippling sanctions imposed by the US and Western allies have severely hampered Iran’s
economy. Normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and attracting Saudi investment offers a
potential lifeline. The Iranian regime was under pressure from protests and escalating
dissatisfaction. Strengthening internal legitimacy could be achieved by lowering external threats
and making advances internationally.

3.1(c) Regional Impact :

Iran’s isolation may be challenged and its regional clout increased by collaborating with Saudi
Arabia, a significant Arab state. This is consistent with its objective of becoming the dominant
force in the Middle East.

3.2 Saudi’s motivations:

3.2(a) The 2030 Vision of Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia attempts to fix friendships with Iran in order to concentrate on its grand strategy,
Vision 2030. They are spending a lot of money on this strategy, which aims to improve the nation.
They may find it difficult to obtain the funds they require and discourage other investors from
making investments in Saudi Arabia if they have issues with Iran. They would find it difficult to
grow into a major hub for trade, industry, logistics, cloud computing, and other related activities.

3.2(b) Concerns about security:

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First and foremost on the list was the need to put an end to the expensive and prolonged conflict in
Yemen, where Riyadh has been involved in the fight against Houthi rebels supported by Iran. The
agreement relieved pressure on both sides by providing a possible route for peace talks and a truce.
In addition, Riyadh aimed to ease the country’s relations with Iran, which was seen as a concern
because of its nuclear programme, proxy networks, and missile development. Direct armed conflict
may be less likely if lines of communication are opened.This accord is perhaps a step towards
Saudi Arabia’s goal of ending the Yemeni conflict.

3.2(c) Political factors:

Political and economic factors were involved in addition to security. It is possible that Saudi Arabia
is expanding its network of allies, strengthening its relationship with China (the deal’s facilitator),
and elevating its stature in the area due to a perceived decrease in US assistance under the Biden
administration. Better ties with Iran may also open up trade and investment opportunities,
strengthening the flagging economies of both nations, especially in the infrastructure and energy
sectors.

3.3 China’s role:

China wants to boost its image by helping with negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
They’re showing that, even though the U.S. has a strong military presence in the Gulf, China is a
rising diplomatic force. This builds the idea that the U.S. influence is shrinking globally . Iraq and
France also tried to mediate talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran. China, being economically
important to both, could engage with them effectively. China is crucial for Iran’s trade, making up
about 30%, and Saudi Arabia depends on China as its main oil export market. When China’s
President visited Saudi Arabia, Iran felt he favored them. However, due to Iran’s isolation, they
couldn’t do much about it.
China sees the Iran-Saudi agreement as a win for peace and dialogue, showcasing a model for
resolving conflicts without external interference. They emphasize providing “Chinese solutions and
wisdom” through initiatives like the Global Security Initiative. Experts view this as a diplomatic
success for China, using its influence in the region through trade, investments, and technology.
While the U.S. relies on military bases ,China focuses on areas like 5G networks, with Huawei

14
serving several Middle Eastern countries. Stability in the region matters to China, as over 40% of
its energy comes from there.

Chapter 4:

4. Implications for Pakistan:

4.1Security consideration:
For many years, the Middle East’s geopolitical environment has been a complex theatre of power
dynamics, with Saudi Arabia and Iran serving as important regional heavyweights. The long-
standing hostilities between these two countries have not only influenced the future of the Gulf but
have also had an impact on countries well outside the direct area of hostilities. There are signs of a
possible thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but this development is too complex
to ignore, especially when it comes to Pakistan’s security. Pakistan is strategically positioned
between both regional giants, deeply connected in the Middle East’s geopolitical fabric. Any
change in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching effects on
Pakistan. The purpose of this research is to examine Pakistan’s many security concerns and
analyse the possible effects on energy security, regional stability, economic resilience, and the
welfare of its diaspora.

4.1(a) Energy security:

Pakistan’s reliance on the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil makes energy security a
crucial aspect of its national interests. A large amount of these imports pass through the Strait of
Hormuz, which is a slender channel that links the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Pakistan’s
energy requirements are vitally dependent on this marine route, hence the Strait's security dynamics
are critical.Geopolitical tensions and sporadic conflicts have historically affected the unhindered
flow of marine traffic via the Strait of Hormuz. These tensions have occasionally been exacerbated
by Saudi Arabia and Iran, two significant regional actors. A favourable impact on Pakistan’s
energy security might be derived from any improvement in the relationship between the two
countries.

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In the present circumstances, Pakistan is at risk of disturbances in the Strait, which may arise from
political unrest, marine security concerns, or conflicts within the region. The stability of this vital
sea route may be enhanced by a close connection between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan’s energy
supply may move through the region more safely if there is less hostility and cooperation.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s economic progress is better served by a stable Strait of Hormuz.
Continuous energy supplies promote the expansion of industry, lessen reliance on expensive
alternatives, and enhance the general stability of the national grid. Furthermore, a safe path for
energy supplies boosts investor confidence and draws in foreign capital that is essential for
economic development.
For Pakistan, energy security essentially means limiting the risks to development and the economy
that come with any disruptions, in addition to ensuring the safe passage of LNG and oil over the
Strait of Hormuz. With the possibility of better ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has a
rare chance to strengthen its energy security, promoting stability, economic expansion, and long-
term sustainability.

4.1(b) Stability in the region:

The Middle East has been the centre of proxy wars, in which foreign powers back opposing sides
in local conflicts. These proxy wars have frequently been diffused by Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s
long-standing enmity, which has added to regional instability. Engaging in such confrontations
would directly threaten Pakistan’s security. A warming of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran may
lessen the impact of these proxy wars and lower the possibility that they would spread and affect
Pakistan.

4.1(b)(i)Attempts to combat terrorism:

Attempts to combat terrorism are complicated by regional instability. Extremist groups frequently
take advantage of volatile circumstances to retreat to unsteady areas. An improved relationship
between Saudi Arabia and Iran would lead to a more stable Middle East, which would provide a
more conducive atmosphere for counterterrorism efforts. This is in complete accordance with
Pakistan’s attempts to counter extremism regionally.

4.1(b)(ii)Humanitarian Concerns and Refugee :

16
Humanitarian issues and refugee crises are frequently caused by unstable environments. In the past,
Pakistan has struggled with the effects of unrest in the region, taking in and sheltering Afghan
refugees. A more stable and controlled environment for Pakistan would result from some of these
stresses being relieved in the wider region of the Middle East.

4.1(c) Diaspora security:

A vital component of Pakistan’s security concerns is the security and welfare of the millions of
Pakistani nationals employed in the Gulf states. The security of this diaspora is directly impacted
by the possible warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which affects not only the
individuals living abroad but also the sizeable amount of remittances they send back to Pakistan’s
economy. This is a comprehensive analysis of the security dynamics of the diaspora.

4.1(c) (i) Security and Safety of the Individual:

Pakistani expatriates who work in the Gulf states frequently encounter security and safety issues. A
more secure environment for these personnel would result from Iran and Saudi Arabia maintaining
a stable and cooperative partnership. It lessens the possibility of becoming embroiled in any
regional disputes or tensions, guaranteeing that Pakistani expats can perform their jobs without
having to worry about excessive security risks.

4.1(c) (ii) Diplomatic Relations and Consular Services:

Pakistan’s diplomatic relations and consular services are more effective when the Gulf area is
stable. In order to resolve any concerns impacting the Pakistani expatriates, it enables more
seamless coordination with the host governments in the Gulf states. When regional tensions are
reduced, consular services become more readily available and efficient in guaranteeing the welfare
and safety of the diaspora.

4.2 Financial ramifications:

The complex geopolitics of the Middle East, marked by long-standing hostilities between Saudi
Arabia and Iran, are about to change, with the tempting possibility of a reconciliation. There could
be significant economic ramifications for Pakistan from this possible change in diplomatic
dynamics, which could also change the face of the region. Pakistan, a country deeply connected in

17
the Middle East, is at a crossroads where opportunity and challenge abound. Pakistan faces plenty
of economic prospects as the possibility of better relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia grows.
This involves expanding trade alliances, working together on energy initiatives, building
infrastructure together, and improving regional connectivity. The economic implications, therefore,
transcend mere monetary gains; they hold the potential to shape the trajectory of Pakistan’s
economic development and resilience.

4.2(a) Market accessibility and trade diversification:

Pakistan’s trade may benefit from improved ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. By expanding its
network of trading partners, Pakistan can gain access to new markets, hence boosting demand for
its products and services throughout the world. Pakistan now depends on a small number of trading
partners. Through rapprochement, Pakistan’s economy becomes less dependent on a small number
of nations, increasing its shock resistance.

4.2(b) Infrastructure Development and Promoting Development in Pakistan:

Infrastructure development and energy cooperation are like a dynamic team that works together to
improve Pakistan’s growth story. Imagine being able to run enterprises and light up houses with a
consistent supply of power; that is what energy cooperation provides. When Saudi Arabia, Iran,
and Pakistan collaborate on energy projects, it’s as if a reliable supply of energy is guaranteed. This
helps put an end to frequent power outages and creates opportunities for additional sectors to grow.
Working together with its neighbors on shared infrastructure projects—like ports and transportation
networks—Pakistan is creating the groundwork for quicker and easier trade. This helps regional
trade and establishes Pakistan as a centre for local business. Improved infrastructure means
smoother transportation of goods, making trade more efficient and opening up avenues for
economic growth.
Infrastructure development and energy cooperation have a strong synergy. Imagine that while
newly constructed ports and roads facilitate the movement of commodities, energy projects light up
residences. It’s a formula for advancement. In addition to meeting Pakistan’s energy demands, this
alliance establishes Pakistan as a major actor in regional trade. By working together on these fronts,

18
Pakistan and its neighbours are laying the groundwork for a more connected and brighter future in
which infrastructure will be the foundation of a thriving economy and energy will flow freely.

4.2(c)Regional Stability and Economic Integration:

Stability in the area is enhanced by a positive change in the Saudi-Iranian relationship. Economic
integration benefits from stable neighborhoods because they facilitate easier trade contacts, joint
enterprises, and cooperative economic projects.A decrease in tensions within the region can boost
economic confidence. In a stable climate, there is a greater likelihood of both international and
local investors engaging in economic activities, which leads to increasing investments and
economic growth.

4.2(d)Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows:

Foreign investors are drawn to stable and cooperative regional environments as a result of
enhanced ties. Growing inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contribute to economic
modernization and progress by bringing in capital, technology, and knowledge.By diversifying its
sources of capital, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows strengthen Pakistan’s economy. Thus,
the country is strengthened against economic volatility and downturns.

4.3 Energy collaboration:

There are a number of important ramifications for Pakistan’s energy sector that come with the
possible reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. First off, stronger diplomatic ties between
these two significant regional actors may help to stabilize the world energy market. Pakistan is a
major user of energy, especially oil, thus any price stabilisation brought about by improved
collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Iran might lessen the financial strain on Pakistan’s energy
sector and encourage stability and predictability in energy pricing.Pakistan is especially sensitive to
changes in oil prices because it imports a large amount of its energy requirements. Lower
geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran could result in more stable and reasonably
priced oil prices, which would help Pakistan’s balance of payments and lessen the financial burden
on its energy infrastructure.

4.4 Religious influence

19
4.4(a) Sectarian Dynamics and Religious Harmony:
Pakistan may be affected differently in terms of religious impact by the possible reconciliation
between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan has long struggled with sectarian conflicts due to its
heterogeneous religious landscape. An improvement in relations between the two major Shia and
Sunni powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, might have a favourable effect on religious peace and foster
a more tolerant environment in Pakistan.

4.4(b) Possibility of Lowering Sectarian Tensions:

Historically, Pakistan has had disputes and tensions resulting from the Sunni-Shia division. The
potential for Pakistan to alleviate domestic sectarian tensions may arise from the relaxation of
hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A lessening of the religious hostilities between these
regional powers may help Pakistan develop a society that is more accepting and tolerant of others.

4.4(c) Diplomatic Balancing Act:

Pakistan, which has a sizable Sunni majority, has managed to strike a careful balance in its
dealings with Saudi Arabia, which has a Sunni majority, and Iran, which is primarily Shia. Pakistan
may be able to manage its foreign policy without getting sucked into disputes caused by religion if
Iran and Saudi Arabia have a cordial relationship. This would allow Pakistan to develop diplomatic
contacts without escalating tensions between its many religious groups.Pakistan is home to
numerous religious minorities, even though Sunni-Shia relations are frequently the primary
concern of controversy. A greater knowledge and representation of different religious beliefs in
Pakistan could result from improved Iran-Saudi relations, which could also help to create a more
inclusive atmosphere and possibly lessen religious discrimination.

20
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