Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98

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Earth and Planetary Science Letters

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Evidence of displacement-driven maturation along the San Cristobal

Trough transform plate boundary
James S. Neely ∗ , Kevin P. Furlong
Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, 503 Deike Building, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The San Cristobal Trough (SCT), formed by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under
Received 25 September 2017 the Pacific plate near the Solomon Islands, provides an opportunity to study the transform boundary
Received in revised form 22 December 2017 development process. Recent seismicity (2013–2016) along the 280 km long SCT, known as a Subduction-
Accepted 23 December 2017
Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) fault, highlights the tearing process and ongoing development of the
Available online xxxx
Editor: P. Shearer
plate boundary.
The region’s earthquakes reveal two key characteristics. First, earthquakes at the western terminus of
Keywords: the SCT, which we interpret to indicate the Australia plate tearing, display disparate fault geometries.
plate tearing These events demonstrate that plate tearing is accommodated via multiple intersecting planes rather
transform plate boundary development than a single through-going fault. Second, the SCT hosts sequences of Mw ∼7 strike-slip earthquakes
San Cristobal Trough that migrate westward through a rapid succession of events. Sequences in 1993 and 2015 both began
along the eastern SCT and propagated west, but neither progression ruptured into or nucleated a large
earthquake within the region near the tear.
Utilizing b-value and Coulomb Failure Stress analyses, we examine these along-strike variations in the
SCT’s seismicity. b-Values are highest along the youngest, western end of the SCT and decrease with
increasing distance from the tear. This trend may reflect increasing strain localization with increasing
displacement. Coulomb Failure Stress analyses indicate that the stress conditions were conducive to
continued western propagation of the 1993 and 2015 sequences suggesting that the unruptured western
SCT may have fault geometries or properties that inhibit continued rupture.
Our results indicate a displacement-driven fault maturation process. The multi-plane Australia plate
tearing likely creates a western SCT with diffuse strain accommodated along a network of disorganized
faults. After ∼90 km of cumulative displacement (∼900,000 yr of plate motion), strain localizes and faults
align, allowing the SCT to host large earthquakes.
© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction (Furlong et al., 1989). In this study, we examine a specific plate

boundary generation process: transform boundary development
via lithosphere tearing of a bifurcated subduction zone. We fo-
Transform plate boundaries, not at mid-ocean ridges, can form
cus on how this type of transform boundary develops within the
from the transformation of existing or the creation of new plate
Solomon Islands–Vanuatu subduction zone in the southwest Pa-
boundaries (Bilich et al., 2001). The transformation process may
cific Ocean. Here a scissor-like tearing of the Australia plate as it
modify or convert an existing plate boundary into a transform
subducts under the Pacific plate produces the 280 km long San
by relative plate motion changes or the passage of a triple junc-
Cristobal Trough (SCT) transform fault.
tion; the former case seen in the westernmost Aleutians, and the
Such transform faults formed by plate tearing have been termed
latter case seen with the northward migration of the Mendo-
Subduction Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults (Govers and
cino Triple Junction along the west coast of North America and
Wortel, 2005), and more than 24 of these transforms have been
the conversion of the Cascadia Trench to the San Andreas Fault
identified globally. Unlike transforms that offset mid-ocean ridges,
STEP formation entails the tearing of existing lithosphere rather
than the creation of new lithosphere. Prominent examples include
* Corresponding author. Present address: Department of Earth and Planetary Sci-
the transforms at the north and south boundaries of the Lesser
ences, Northwestern University, Technology Institute, 2145 Sheridan Rd., Evanston,
IL, 60208, USA. Antilles Trench and the northern end of the Tonga Trench (Bilich
E-mail address: james@earth.northwestern.edu (J.S. Neely). et al., 2001). Despite the similar boundary geometry at the south-

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.12.044
0012-821X/© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
ern end of the Vanuatu Trench, geophysical evidence indicates that
tearing is not likely ongoing there (Patriat et al., 2015). Compared
to other STEPs, which generally have low seismicity rates (Bilich
et al., 2001), the San Cristobal Trough (SCT) is highly seismically
active with 146 Mw 5+ earthquakes since 1976. Recent seismic
activity, with several moderate to large earthquakes from 2013
through 2016, has produced data that provide insight into the de-
velopment of this new plate boundary.
Strike-slip fault development studies across scales observe a de-
crease in structural complexity with increasing cumulative slip,
indicative of a fault maturation process (Ben-Zion and Sammis,
2003). Both lab experiments (Davidesko et al., 2014) and field
studies (Sagy et al., 2007) have found that increased displacement
leads to smoother individual fault surfaces. This maturation pro-
cess also extends to strain localization with the consolidation of
multiple fault structures. Detailed field observations indicate that
incipient strike-slip faults may begin as sheared joints (Martel et
al., 1988) or macroscopic Riedel shears (Faulds et al., 2005), which
rotate and consolidate along through-going structures with in-
creasing cumulative displacement. Similar patterns have also been
observed on regional scales with cumulative slip decreasing the
number of fault steps per unit length (Wesnousky, 1988) and both
lengthening and aligning fault segments (Wechsler et al., 2010).
The structural consolidation during the maturation process
likely affects a fault’s seismicity as rupture barriers are removed
(Wesnousky, 1988). Earthquake swarms have been observed on
disorganized portions of incipient strike-slip faults in California
(Thomas et al., 2013). Comparisons between mature and immature
faults indicate that the recurrence rate ratio of small to large earth-
quakes decreases with increasing cumulative displacement (Stirling
et al., 1996). Increasing fault maturity has also been linked to
increasing maximum earthquake size based on the historic earth-
quakes of the North Anatolian Fault (Bohnhoff et al., 2016).
With a clear initiation point (at the Australia plate tear) and a
rich earthquake data set, the SCT provides an excellent opportunity
to examine plate boundary development. In this study, we address
two fundamental questions regarding the development of the SCT.
(1) Does the SCT undergo a maturation process; that is, is there
a systematic change in fault zone behavior as the fault ages? And,
(2) if maturation does occur, how much cumulative displacement
is required before the SCT is mature? Although the characteristics
of a mature fault likely vary from fault system to fault system, we
rely on the inclusive definition proposed by Ben-Zion and Sammis
(2003) – that is, mature faults have asymptotically stable fault zone
properties.
To address these questions, we use observed changes in seis-
micity along the SCT combined with b-value (Gutenberg and
Richter, 1944) and Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) analyses (Stein et
al., 1992). Along-strike b-value variations can provide insight into
key processes occurring along the SCT. Previous studies of con-
tinental strike-slip settings have linked lower b-values to deeper
seismicity (Gerstenberger et al., 2001) and higher differential stress
(Wiemer and Wyss, 1997). Strain release mechanisms also affect b-
values with locked faults exhibiting lower b-values than creeping
portions (Wyss et al., 2004). In laboratory stick-slip experiments, b-
values decrease with increasing fault smoothness and strain local-
ization (Goebel et al., 2017). Detailed studies of the Blanco Oceanic
Transform Fault also indicate a similar b-value decrease with in-
creasing fault length (Dziak et al., 1991). Furthermore, b-values
have been shown to vary significantly on the local and regional
scale (Wiemer and Wyss, 2002), indicating that a detailed analysis
of the 280 km long SCT can potentially yield useful results.
CFS (Coulomb Failure Stress) analyses can also provide insight
into along-strike variations in fault zone behavior. Static stress
changes from earthquakes have been shown to trigger additional
earthquake activity when a nearby fault’s geometry is conducive
89
to failure (Stein, 1999). CFS ≥ 0.01 MPa is considered to be the
minimum earthquake triggering threshold (Stein et al., 1992). For
long strike-slip faults, this triggering can lead to propagating earth-
quake sequences with each earthquake bringing the next section
of the fault closer to failure as has been observed along the North
Anatolian Fault (Stein et al., 1997). Systematic triggering behavior
variations along the SCT may indicate fault sections with distinct
fault zone properties.
2. Regional plate tectonics
This portion of the Australia–Pacific plate boundary has experi-
enced periods of convergence, spreading, and subduction direction
reversals (Cooper and Taylor, 1987; Schellart et al., 2006). The cur-
rent plate alignment in the SCT region dates to ∼5 Ma (Schellart
et al., 2006). The plate boundary has two distinct subduction
zones as the Australia plate converges with the Pacific plate at
9.5 cm/yr in an east–northeast direction (DeMets et al., 2010)
(Fig. 1). The Solomon Trench extends to the northwest from the
SCT where oblique subduction of the Australia plate occurs. South-
east of the SCT is the Vanuatu Trench with trench-normal subduc-
tion. Both subduction zones have hosted large megathrust earth-
quakes, which have been studied extensively (Furlong et al., 2009;
Hayes et al., 2014; Lay et al., 2013).
Connecting these two trenches is the east–west striking, 280 km
long San Cristobal Trough (SCT) (Fig. 1). The Australia plate tear is
located at the intersection of the southern Solomon Trench and
western end of the SCT. The abrupt change in plate boundary
orientation between the Solomon Trench and the SCT requires
that the subducting Australia plate deform and most likely tear.
A transition from predominantly thrust events along the Solomon
Trench to strike-slip earthquakes along the SCT (Fig. 2) highlights
this transformation in plate boundary kinematics. As described
in section 2.2, several earthquakes in the transition can be inter-
preted to represent plate tearing. Side-projection focal mechanisms
shown in cross-section A–A (Fig. 2) outline the upper surface of
the subducting Australia slab with seismicity extending to depths
of 100 km. Seismicity along the SCT (shown in the B–B cross-
section in Fig. 2), however, is mainly confined to the upper 20 km.
The combination of abrupt changes in dominant focal mechanisms
and the significant shallowing in earthquake focal depth from the
Solomon Trench to the SCT supports the concept that the Australia
plate is tearing here. Millen and Hamburger (1998) observed simi-
lar seismicity patterns near the Tonga STEP tear.
2.1. 2013–2016 earthquakes near the San Cristobal Trough
The 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Island earthquake appears to have
initiated a period of increased seismicity along the SCT (Fig. 3a).
On 6 February 2013 (UTC 01:12:25) the shallowly dipping Mw
8.0 megathrust earthquake occurred at the northernmost end of
the Vanuatu Trench near the plate boundary transition to the SCT.
Several shallow Mw 6+ thrust faulting plate-interface foreshocks
preceded the Mw 8.0 main shock. A series of aftershocks followed
the main event including additional plate interface thrust events
and several large normal faulting events within the Australia plate
west of the trench. Five right-lateral strike-slip aftershocks be-
tween Mw 6.5 and Mw 7.1 also occurred in the overriding Pacific
plate in a zone extending east from the SCT with the east–west
trending nodal planes closely aligned (±12◦ ) with the SCT’s ori-
entation, although the sense of motion is opposite of the SCT’s
motion (Fig. 3a).
On 12 April 2014 (UTC 20:14:39), a Mw 7.6 strike-slip earth-
quake occurred near the SCT–Solomon Trench intersection fol-
lowed 16 h later (13 April 2014 UTC 12:36:19) by a Mw 7.4
thrust event ∼20 km away. Based on their location, contrasting
90 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98

Fig. 1. SCT regional tectonics and seismicity. The SCT is located between the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu in the southwest Pacific Ocean. The solid black lines indicate key
plate boundaries. The circles, sized by magnitude and colored by depth, represent all seismicity (hypocenters) since 1900. The dashed box indicates our study region, which
contains the Australia plate tear and the entire SCT. (For interpretation of the colors in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Fig. 2. SCT seismicity by earthquake type. The map shows SCT seismicity (centroids) since 1976 colored by earthquake geometry. The change in seismicity from predominantly
thrust earthquakes along the Solomon Trench (A–A ) to shallow strike-slip seismicity along the SCT (B–B ) indicates a rotation in the plate boundary that can only be
accommodated via lithosphere tearing. (For interpretation of the colors in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

geometries, and close spatial and temporal relationship, these two
earthquakes are inferred to represent the tearing process within
the Australia lithosphere. A wide range of geometries were ob-
served for the ensuing aftershocks with thrusting primarily along
the Solomon Trench, extension in the Australia plate south of the
tear, oblique strike-slip events slightly north of the tear, and a
range of faulting geometries along the SCT immediately east of the
tear (Fig. 3b). The shallow normal faulting events within the Aus-
tralia plate are similar to the normal events observed by Hayes et
al. (2014) near the Vanuatu Trench in response to the subduction
process.
After these two earthquake sequences adjacent to the east end
(2013) and at the west end (2014) of the SCT, the SCT hosted
a series of slightly oblique, left-lateral strike-slip earthquakes on
∼60◦ north-dipping faults migrating from east to west in 2015.
These three (Mw 6.8–6.9) events occurred ∼50 km apart at less
than 20 km depth with very similar faulting geometries (Fig. 3a).
The initial Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred on 20 May 2015 (2015A
UTC 22:48:53) and was followed 47 h later by the Mw 6.9 earth-
quake (2015B 22 May 2015 UTC 21:45:19). The sequence ended
2 h later with the occurrence of the western-most Mw 6.8 earth-
quake (2015C 22 May 2015 UTC 23:59:33). While the 2015 se-
quence ruptured the eastern two-thirds of the SCT, the rupture did
not continue to the western end near the inferred tear. The after-
shock sequences of these three large strike-slip events include nor-
mal, thrust, and strike-slip earthquakes, the largest of which was a
Mw 6.4 left-lateral strike-slip earthquake on 15 August 2015 (UTC
07:47:06) along the SCT between the two initial events (2015A and
2015B) in the sequence.
Although Mw 5.5 (12 February 2016 UTC 20:56:48) and Mw 5.1
(13 February 2016 UTC 03:44:47) strike-slip events have since oc-
curred along the western, unruptured portion of the SCT, these
 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98 91

Fig. 3. Notable seismicity along the SCT and subduction zones. The focal mechanisms in panel a highlight the key earthquakes (centroids) along the SCT and surrounding
subduction zones. The recent sequence began with a 2013 Mw 8.0 thrust event (purple) along the Vanuatu Trench followed by the Mw 7.6 strike-slip and Mw 7.4 thrust
tearing events in 2014 (brown). The 2015 strike-slip sequence (green) propagated east to west beginning with 2015A (Mw 6.8), followed two days later by 2015B (Mw 6.9)
and 2015C (Mw 6.8). A similar propagating strike-slip sequence occurred in 1993 (orange). The 2016 Mw 7.8 thrust event (blue) occurred along the Solomon Trench. Inset b
shows recent seismicity since 2013 near the tear and along the western SCT. Focal mechanisms indicate centroid locations while the smaller circles indicate hypocenter
locations for earthquakes Mw <5.5. Aftershocks are a lighter color of their main earthquake. The lines represent the fault rupture lengths. The 2014 lines represent the USGS
finite fault model at ∼23 km depth. Line portions with darker reds indicate fault sections with greater slip. The green line for 2015C represents the Wells and Coppersmith
(1994) estimated rupture length. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

events are significantly smaller than the 2015 sequence earth-
quakes. A Mw 7.8 2016 thrust earthquake (8 December 2016 UTC
17:38:46) northwest of the tear along the Solomon Trench may be
a continuation of this recent seismicity.
A propagating strike-slip earthquake sequence similar to the
2015 sequence was observed in 1993 (Fig. 3a). The similar geome-
try and locations between the 1993 and 2015 events indicate that
these two sequences may have ruptured the same portions of the
SCT, possibly indicating a full seismic cycle. The 1993 sequence in-
cluded a Mw 7.1 left-lateral strike-slip earthquake (1993A 6 March
1993 UTC 03:05:49) along the eastern SCT followed 13 h later by
a Mw 6.7 event (1993B 6 March 1993 UTC 16:26:56) 90 km to
the west. A smaller Mw 6.0 earthquake located between these two
events occurred during the sequence as well, however the geom-
etry of that smaller event is unclear. Thrust geometry earthquakes
dominated the 1993 aftershocks to these larger strike-slip events
(Fig. 4). Focal mechanisms for these thrust events indicated slip
on either a 20◦ north-dipping or 70◦ south-dipping fault, sug-
gesting that a secondary structure exists in conjunction with the
primary 60◦ north-dipping plate boundary, potentially partition-
ing the plate motion obliquity in the plate boundary. Unlike the
2015 sequence, no large tearing events appear to have preceded
these earthquakes. The 1993 sequence also did not propagate as
far west as the 2015 sequence with the final 1993 event (1993B)
located ∼20 km east of the last 2015 event (2015C). The com-
mon termination of the 1993 and 2015 SCT strike-slip sequences
prior to reaching the western end of the SCT may reflect different
fault zone properties between the western and eastern SCT. Previ-
ous Mw ∼7 earthquakes have also been recorded along the same
portions of the SCT in 1953 and 1970 but little is known about
the geometry of these events or whether they occurred as part of
a larger propagating sequence.
2.2. The dynamics of plate tearing
The Australia plate tearing we observe at the junction of the
Solomon Trench and SCT is different from the seismicity at other
STEP tears. At the Puerto Rico Trench along the northern branch
of the Lesser Antilles STEP, relatively few Mw 6+ earthquakes
have been observed since 1976. Larger earthquakes have occurred
here in the more distant past, but their geometry is not well
constrained. Intermediate depth (50–150 km) Mw < 4 earthquake
swarms have been recorded recently and linked to the tearing
of the converging North America plate (Meighan et al., 2013).
The Tonga STEP, on the other hand, has a rich recorded history
of Mw 6–6.5 vertical dip-slip events with strikes coinciding with
plate motion that have been interpreted as tearing of the subduct-
ing Pacific plate (Fig. 5b). These moderate-to-large events occur
within a narrow zone along the plate boundary with depths ex-
tending 18–88 km likely indicating complete lithosphere tearing
(Millen and Hamburger, 1998).
92 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
Fig. 4. 1993 strike-slip earthquake sequence. The orange focal mechanisms (cen-
troids) indicate the two main earthquakes in the 1993 propagating strike-slip se-
quence. Grey focal mechanisms indicate aftershock centroids while the grey circles
indicate aftershocks Mw <5.5 (hypocenters). (For interpretation of the references to
color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig. 5. Tearing seismicity of the SCT and Tonga. Panel a shows the pre-2014 (orange)
and 2014 (red) Australia plate (SCT) tearing event focal mechanisms (centroids)
with horizontal slip vectors. The large red arrow indicates the combined 2014 slip
vectors. Focal mechanism labels correspond to GCMT IDs. Panel b shows tearing
events near the Tonga STEP. These events display a simpler dip-slip geometry. (For
interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred
to the web version of this article.)
The tearing earthquakes at the Solomon Trench–SCT intersec-
tion do not fit a simple dip-slip geometry. Earthquake geometry
varies dramatically at the Australia plate tear (Fig. 5a). Before 2014,
the largest Australia plate tearing earthquakes in this location were
between Mw 6.5 and 7.0. These pre-2014 tearing earthquakes
were confined to a 50 km wide swath and ranged from 10–40 km
in depth. They also exhibited a remarkably consistent oblique ge-
ometry with a shallowly dipping plane striking parallel to the SCT
and a near vertical plane perpendicular to the SCT. The 2014 Mw
7.6 strike-slip and Mw 7.4 reverse earthquakes, however, differ
from these earlier events in both size and geometry.
The 2014 events’ close proximity with diverse faulting sug-
gests that lithosphere tearing is accommodated by slip on variously
oriented fault planes. In the USGS NEIC’s finite fault model, the
NW–SE striking plane with a maximum slip of 5 m is the pre-
ferred plane for the Mw 7.6 strike-slip earthquake with a GCMT
centroid depth of 27 km. Based on the Mw 7.4 thrust earthquake’s
Fig. 6. 2014 tearing earthquake fault projections. The rectangles represent the 2014
(Mw 7.6 and Mw 7.4) tearing earthquake fault planes projected in 3-dimensions. The
solid colors indicate the regions of maximum slip. (For interpretation of the colors
in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
centroid location (37 km deep) at the Solomon Trench–SCT inter-
section, each nodal plane implies a different faulting mechanism.
The relative motion of the north-dipping nodal plane would in-
dicate an interplate event between the subducting Australia plate
and overriding Pacific plate. The south-dipping plane, on the other
hand, represents intraplate faulting of the Australia plate.
The Mw 7.4 event’s location relative to the aftershocks, how-
ever, indicates that this is an intraplate tearing event and not an
interplate megathrust earthquake. The Mw 7.4 earthquake sepa-
rates two zones of aftershock behavior (Fig. 3b). Aftershocks to the
northwest along the Solomon Trench indicate a consistent inter-
plate thrust geometry, while those focal mechanisms to the east
have a variable geometry. The Mw 7.4 thrust event may divide
these faulting geometries because it occurred at the hinge of the
tear, therefore representing an intra-Australia plate tearing event
with a south-dipping fault plane (with ∼4 m of slip according to
the USGS’s finite fault model). The shallow (<20 km) normal after-
shocks south and east of the tear may indicate the Australia plate
responding to tension created by the dropping of the torn litho-
sphere.
Despite the disparate geometries, the majority of slip from the
2014 events occurred relatively close to each other. USGS finite
fault models indicate laterally compact ruptures for both the Mw
7.6 and Mw 7.4 earthquakes with most slip exceeding 0.5 m con-
fined to ∼40 km and ∼20 km wide sections (Fig. 3b), respectively,
and maximum slip occurring at 20–25 km depth with significant
slip extending down to 50 km. When we project the 2014 pre-
ferred fault planes in three-dimensional space, the planes intersect
with overlapping regions of maximum slip (Fig. 6). The combined
horizontal slip vectors from the 2014 tearing events (scaled by
total seismic moment) indicate an overall slip direction closely
aligned with relative plate motion and the smaller pre-2014 earth-
quake horizontal slip vectors (Fig. 5a). The horizontal slip vector
orientation reflects the ongoing creation of the SCT – a linear fea-
ture oriented in the plate motion direction. Given the larger areas
of the 2014 events, they likely ruptured through the lithosphere
volumes that previously experienced the smaller pre-2014 tearing
events. Therefore, tearing at the Solomon Trench–SCT intersection
should not be viewed as a single plane cutting through the litho-
sphere but rather as multiple planes of damage intersecting in
space.
3. Seismicity observations of the plate boundary development
process
Australia plate tearing likely leads to a poorly defined plate
boundary along the youngest, westernmost section of the SCT. The
1993 and 2015 east-to-west propagating strike-slip earthquake se-
quences failure to rupture the full length of the SCT suggests that
 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
Fig. 7. b-Value analyses earthquakes. The map and cross section include all earthquakes (hypocenters) with Mw > 4.5 since 1 January 1976 from the USGS catalog. Earthquake
color corresponds to pre- or post-2013 Mw 8.0 megathrust earthquake. Many of the smaller earthquakes are assigned fixed depths. (For interpretation of the colors in this
figure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
the fault structure along the western SCT is different from farther
east and may affect the seismicity observed here.
3.1. b-Value variations along the SCT
Using b-value analysis, we quantify the along-strike changes in
earthquake magnitude distribution, which may reflect the develop-
ment or maturation of the plate boundary structure. We use the
Aki–Utsu b-value maximum likelihood estimation (Equation (1))
(Aki, 1965; Utsu, 1965) with the Shi and Bolt (1982) uncertainty
calculations (Equation (2)).
log10 e
b=
M − ( M 1 −  M /2 )
σ (b) = 2.30b2 σ ( M )
The b-value (b) is a function of the observed mean magni-
tude (M) above a minimum magnitude threshold (M 1 ) (we assume
M 1 = 4.5 [see Supplementary Material]) with defined magnitude
bin sizes ( M) of 0.1. The uncertainty of the b-value (σ (b)) is a
function of the b-value and the uncertainty of the observed mean
magnitude (σ ( M )) shown in Equation (3) where M is the mean
magnitude, n is the total number of earthquakes and M i is the
magnitude of an individual earthquake.
n
2 − M )2
i =1 ( M i
σ (M ) =
n(n − 1)
In this analysis, we assume an origin location for the western
end of the SCT slightly northeast of the 2014 Mw 7.6 and Mw
7.4 events (so that the large tearing events and associated tear-
ing seismicity, which we assume are generating the transform, not
occurring on it, are not included in our b-value calculations of SCT
behavior), and we project all earthquakes shallower than 50 km
deep within ±30 km of the SCT onto our 1-D SCT line (Fig. 7).
To minimize the effect of large event bias in the USGS ComCat
database, we limited the catalog search to Mw 4.5+ earthquakes
from 1 January 1976 to the present. A longer time frame would be
ideal for analyzing long-term seismicity trends but we are limited
by catalog length. A cumulative analysis of the entire SCT since
1976, which includes 430 earthquakes with 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.1, re-
veals a b-value of 0.9 ± 0.04 that closely matches the typical 1.0
global value (Stein and Wysession, 2003).
93
Sampling segments along the SCT, however, reveals system-
atic b-value variations. We use a 10 km grid node spacing with
a 40 km search radius for each node. These parameters ensure
that the minimum number of earthquakes considered in each grid
exceeds 50 events for statistical significance (Wiemer and Wyss,
2002). At this more granular level, b-values vary between 0.7 and
1.2 (Fig. 8a). Near the tear at the west end of the SCT, the b-value is
close to or exceeds 1.0. Approximately 120 km east of the tear, the
b-value drops below 0.9. The b-value continues to decrease with
distance from the tear with the lowest value of 0.7 found 180 km
away from the tear. b-Values increase along the eastern SCT with
the sections nearest the Vanuatu Trench containing b-values closer
(1) to 0.9. With a similar number of events included in the western
and central SCT segments, the much lower b-values along the cen-
(2) tral SCT indicate that this region experiences proportionally more
large events to small events than the east and west ends of the
SCT.
This overall west to east, high-low-high b-value trend appears
for other grid intervals as well. A grid spacing of 5 km with a
20 km search radius produces a similar b-value distribution with
more variability between adjoining grid points. However, with this
spacing, most of the grid points drop below the 50 event threshold
leading to large b-value uncertainties. A coarser 40 km grid spacing
with an 80 km search radius produces a west-to-east decrease in
b-value from 1.1 to 0.8. In all scenarios, the western section gener-
(3) ally contains higher b-values than the central and eastern sections.
Because 2013–2016 was an active seismic period along the SCT,
accounting for nearly half of all the seismicity since 1976, we
performed the same b-value analysis using a pre- and post-2013
Mw 8 megathrust earthquake data set to explore the possibility
of temporal b-value changes (Figs. 8b and 8c). The overall west
to east, high-low-high b-value trend is due to the high levels of
seismicity from 2013 to the present and is not apparent in the
pre-2013 data set. From 1976 to 2013, b-values are approximately
constant along the western and central SCT, fluctuating between
0.6 to 0.8 before increasing slightly (0.8–0.9) along the far east-
ern SCT (Fig. 8b). Relatively few earthquakes occurred during this
pre-2013 period with most grid points not exceeding 50 earth-
quakes. A post-2013 b-value analysis (Fig. 8c) accentuates the west
to east, high-low b-value trend. High b-values (>1.5) are observed
along the western SCT before decreasing with distance from the
tear and stabilizing between 0.8–1 along the central and eastern
94 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
Fig. 8. b-Value analyses. Each figure represents a different time period of b-value
analysis. The b-value points are colored by cumulative number of earthquakes. The
complete 1976 to 2017 catalog (a) indicates a high-low-high b-value pattern from
west to east. Panel b shows the 1976 to pre-2013 Mw 8.0 earthquake seismicity. The
recent period (post-2013 Mw 8.0 earthquake through 2017) (c) of activity greatly
increased the b-values along the western SCT. (For interpretation of the colors in
this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
SCT. The post-2013 period significantly increased the observed b-
values along the western SCT while the central and eastern SCT
sections remained approximately constant. Of the 120 earthquakes
along the SCT’s western 80 km since 1976, 72 have occurred since
the 2014 tearing earthquakes.
For the last 40+ yr, large events have not occurred along the
western-most SCT either as a part of a propagating earthquake se-
quence or as isolated events. The west to east b-value decrease
that we observe in the complete catalog (driven by the SCT’s re-
cent activity) corresponds to the unruptured and ruptured portions
of the SCT from the 1993 and 2015 sequences.
3.2. Coulomb analysis of the SCT
The correlation between the b-value pattern and the ruptured
and unruptured SCT sections from 1993 and 2015 raises a key
question: why did the 1993 and 2015 sequences not continue to
the tear? Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) analysis (Stein et al., 1992)
provides one route to addressing this question by examining if the
stress conditions exist during one of the sequences to allow con-
tinuing rupture along the western SCT. The five events from the
1993 and 2015 sequences are very similar in terms of magnitude
(Mw 6.7–7.1), strike (252◦ –255◦ ), dip (50◦ –59◦ ), rake (−3◦ –7◦ ),
and depth (15 km–19 km). Resulting stress conditions after each
event should therefore be relatively similar. If the earthquake re-
sponse to similar loading conditions varies, then these differences
may point to physical differences in the plate boundary.
We use codes developed by Herman et al. (2016), based on
the solutions for deformation in an elastic half-space from a fi-
nite rectangular source (Okada, 1992) (coefficient of friction of 0.5
and Lamé parameters (λ, μ) of 35 GPa). Source earthquake fault
dimensions are based on the empirical equations established by
Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for fault geometry and magnitude.
Average fault displacements are then calculated via the moment-
fault area relationship. Both source and target fault geometries are
from the GCMT catalog.
The CFS results from the 2015 sequence are shown in Fig. 9.
In each panel, events that have occurred are shown in grey; black
focal mechanisms indicate the target geometry of the next event
in the sequence; the purple focal mechanism indicates the target
geometry of a hypothetical final event, which would occur on the
western segment of the SCT but has not yet occurred. For each
target event, we resolve the stress field on the geometry of the tar-
get fault. Reds and yellows (positive CFS) indicate regions where
subsequent failure is promoted. Blue regions (negative CFS) are
locations where further failure is inhibited.
Fig. 9a indicates the calculated CFS state before the initial
2015 Mw 6.8 strike-slip earthquake (2015A). We have included the
effects of the USGS finite fault models for the 2013 Mw 8.0 and
2014 Mw 7.6 and Mw 7.4 earthquakes, with our preferred south-
dipping intraplate geometry, to model their influence on the CFS
state at the initiation of the 2015 sequence. Although the western
SCT contains positive CFS values indicating an area where failure
is promoted, the stress state of the eastern SCT is less clear. Event
location uncertainty prevents us from making a definitive state-
ment regarding the stress relationship between the 2013 Mw 8.0
megathrust earthquake and the first (easternmost) 2015 strike-slip
earthquake (2015A Mw 6.8). Small changes in either the first 2015
event location (2015A) or the 2013 Mw 8.0 finite fault model could
lead to the initiation of the 2015 sequence being in either a region
conducive to or inhibiting additional failure.
Fig. 9b shows the CFS after the first Mw 6.8 SCT event (2015A)
resolved on the geometry of the next event (2015B Mw 6.9) in the
sequence. This second event (2015B Mw 6.9) occurred in the lobe
of positive CFS values extending west of the first rupture, imply-
ing that the first event likely triggered the second. This pattern is
repeated with the second event (2015B Mw 6.9) positively loading
the region where the third and final event (2015C Mw 6.8) oc-
curred (Fig. 9c). Fig. 9d shows the cumulative final CFS projected
on a similar left-lateral strike-slip geometry, representing the con-
tinuation of the SCT plate boundary, after the conclusion of the
2015 sequence. Similar to the previous events in the sequence, a
lobe of positive CFS extends west of the last event. However, the
hypothetical next event in the sequence (indicated by the purple
focal mechanism) has not yet occurred. Although the 2014 Mw 7.6
and Mw 7.4 tearing events did influence the stress state along the
far western SCT, a positive CFS lobe still extended west of the fi-
nal 2015 event. The western SCT was positively loaded for failure
after this sequence, but no events exceeding Mw 5.5 have been
recorded since the end of the 2015 sequence along the western
SCT.
The halting of the 2015 sequence despite an apparently com-
parable trigger indicates that fault properties may change within
the plate boundary along the western (“young”) end of the SCT.
A significant number of smaller (Mw < 6) 2014 aftershocks oc-
curred near the western SCT and may have had some impact
on the subsequent 2015 sequence. However, the 1993 sequence
(Fig. 9e) behaved similarly to the 2015 sequence with the sec-
ond 1993 earthquake (1993B Mw 6.7) occurring in a zone loaded
by the preceding event (1993A Mw 7.1). Like the 2015 sequence,
the 1993 sequence failed to rupture to the tear zone leaving the
western SCT unruptured despite being positively loaded. The halt-
ing of both sequences appears to indicate significant structural or
mechanical differences between the unruptured western SCT and
ruptured central and eastern SCT.
 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
Fig. 9. CFS results. Panels a through d show the CFS analyses for the May 2015
propagating strike-slip sequence. Grey focal mechanisms are triggering events, black
focal mechanisms represent the target fault geometry (i.e. next event in the se-
quence). Reds and yellows indicate regions where fault failure is promoted. Blues
indicate regions where fault failure is inhibited. All focal mechanisms represent
centroid locations. The green lines represent the assumed fault rupture for the trig-
gering events. Panels a through c indicate that each 2015 earthquake likely triggered
the subsequent event in the sequence. Panel d shows the CFS state on a hypo-
thetical next event in the sequence that did not occur (purple focal mechanism).
The western SCT has positive CFS values indicating a region primed for failure.
Panel e shows the final CFS state for the 1993 sequence also resolved for a hypo-
thetical next event. The western SCT was also positively loaded but no large events
occurred. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the
reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
4. Discussion
4.1. Tearing of the Australia plate
The diverse geometries and kinematics of the tearing earth-
quakes indicate that upper lithosphere tearing in this region
is likely accommodated by multiple faults rather than a single
through-going structure. The intersection of the compact regions
95
of maximum slip for the 2014 fault planes supports this multi-
plane tearing model with variously oriented faults. Tearing at the
Solomon Trench–SCT intersection should not be viewed as only
slip along two-dimensional planes but rather the assemblage of
a variety of planes in a three-dimensional volume possibly repre-
senting a large-scale analog to von Mises plastic failure. Despite
the 2014 events’ large magnitudes, significant slip only extends to
50 km depth indicating that these two events did not likely rup-
ture completely through the lithosphere.
The difference in tearing style between the Solomon Trench–
SCT intersection and the Tonga region may be related to the geom-
etry of the tearing hinge. In Tonga, the STEP is nearly perpendicular
to the trench. This is the preferred direction of STEP propagation as
proposed by Govers and Wortel (2005). The angle between the SCT
and the Solomon Trench, however, is closer to 130◦ . This obtuse
angle may prevent simple tearing along a single, vertical slicing
plane.
Forward models of STEP propagation provide some guidance on
how this geometry might have formed. Nijholt and Govers (2015)
proposed that STEP propagation direction could vary if it inter-
sects a passive margin. The SCT, however, has not encountered any
passive margins. Instead this hinge angle is potentially a manifes-
tation of the tearing resistant forward model detailed by Hale et
al. (2010). As resistance to tearing increases, slab rollback (the pri-
mary driver of STEP propagation in the SCT region) is inhibited
near the tear leading to the widening of the STEP-trench angle as
the trench continues to retreat further away from the tear (Hale et
al., 2010). A comparison of trench retreat rates indicates that while
the Tonga Trench retreats at 15.8 cm/yr, the Solomon Trench is rel-
atively stationary with respect to the overriding plate (Schellart et
al., 2007). The varying tear seismicity between the two locations
may be therefore an outcome of the contrasting growth versus
static phases of the two systems.
Generic forward STEP models indicate that along-strike seis-
micity changes may result from ongoing STEP propagation (Govers
and Wortel, 2005). STEP growth is usually a function of trench or
slab rollback, typically accommodated by back-arc extension in the
overriding plate. Relative motion along the STEP would therefore
be non-uniform as a result of this back-arc extension (Wortel et
al., 2009). As STEP growth ceases, relative motion is expected to
equilibrate along the boundary (Govers and Wortel, 2005). Since
there is no observed slab rollback along the southern portion of
the Solomon Trench, continued STEP propagation is unlikely to be
the driving mechanism for variable along-strike seismicity. Govers
and Wortel (2005) also argued that non-uniform transform motion
due to STEP propagation may account for the lack of strike-slip
earthquakes along most STEPs. The static length (and therefore
uniform transform motion) of the SCT, combined with the high
plate motion rates, may explain why the SCT is substantially more
seismically active than other STEPs.
4.2. Implications of along-strike seismicity variations
Our b-value and CFS analyses indicate clear along-strike seis-
micity variations corresponding to cumulative displacement (i.e.
distance from the tear). As mentioned previously, a variety of fault
zone processes can affect b-values, however the higher b-values
along the western SCT are likely linked to structural variations
along the SCT. Seismicity depth does not vary systematically along
the SCT (although this may be partly due to the fixed hypocen-
ter depth assignments for some events) indicating that depth is
not the key influence on the SCT’s b-value trends. The multi-plane
tearing of the Australia plate likely leads to a segmented, poorly
defined SCT without dominant through-going structures along its
youngest, western end. The lack of large earthquakes along the
western SCT, may reflect the absence of large faults with suffi-
96 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
Fig. 10. SCT displacement-driven maturation model. A displacement-driven, plate boundary maturation model consisting of strain localization with increasing cumulative dis-
placement best explains the observed seismicity trends. The SCT can be classified into immature and mature portions. The immature section likely consists of a disorganized
plate boundary with short faults. Strain localizes in the mature section along longer faults. This maturation process requires ∼90 km of cumulative displacement.
cient area to host earthquakes Mw > 6. The high b-values along
the western SCT may indicate the presence of these shorter faults
and diffuse strain similar to the findings along the Blanco Oceanic
Transform Fault (Dziak et al., 1991) and in the lab (Goebel et al.,
2017).
The disorganized fault zone along the western SCT may also
account for the halting of the 1993 and 2015 SCT sequences de-
spite positive CFS loading (Figs. 9d–e). For a single strike-slip
event, a complex fault geometry including step-overs (Segall and
Pollard, 1980; Wesnousky, 1988, 2006) or fault branches (Bhat et
al., 2007) can impede rupture. Similarly, along the Gofar Oceanic
Transform Fault, highly damaged fault zones have been identified
as key barriers separating moderate sized strike-slip earthquakes
(Froment et al., 2014). Without detailed SCT bathymetry, we can-
not say for certain whether step-overs, branches, or damage zones
prevent continued sequence propagation along the western SCT al-
though it may be a combination of all three. Regardless, both the
b-value and CFS appear to indicate a disorganized western SCT
similar to the observations by Martel et al. (1988) and Faulds et
al. (2005) of diffuse strain along incipient continental strike-slip
faults.
The Mw ∼ 7 strike-slip earthquakes along the central and east-
ern SCT indicate the presence of large fault sections and reflect
the SCT’s maturation with increasing cumulative displacement. The
low b-values along the central SCT may reflect this strain local-
ization along longer and smoother faults as proposed by Dziak et
al. (1991) and Goebel et al. (2017), respectively. Furthermore, the
rapid triggering during the 1993 and 2015 sequences, observed via
CFS analyses, indicates that fewer rupture impediments may ex-
ist along the central and eastern SCT suggesting the alignment of
fault sections (Wechsler et al., 2010) and the possible reduction in
rupture-inhibiting fault step overs (Wesnousky, 1988) due to in-
creased cumulative displacement.
Returning to our two initial questions, the seismicity data ap-
pear to indicate that the SCT does undergo a maturation process,
however, how much displacement is required is not as clear. Our
estimates depend on the rupture extents of the propagating strike-
slip sequences and the 2014 tearing events. The 2014 earthquakes’
compact slip distributions indicate that little coseismic slip oc-
curred along the SCT itself. Although 2014 aftershocks occur east
of the tear (Fig. 3b), the normal fault geometry and location sug-
gest Australia intraplate tension in response to the tearing process
and not plate motion along the SCT. If little coseismic slip occurred
along the SCT due to the tearing events, we can use the 2015C
event to estimate the unruptured, and immature, SCT’s length. The
distance between 2015C and the tear is ∼115 km for both the cen-
troid and hypocenter. If we include 2015C’s 48 km rupture length
– based on Wells and Coppersmith (1994) – centered on the cen-
troid, approximately ∼90 km of the SCT is unruptured. If we as-
sume a unilateral westward rupture from the hypocenter, ∼70 km
remains unruptured.
Using these 2015C rupture extent approximations, the majority
of plate boundary consolidation occurs during the initial ∼90 km
of cumulative displacement. Our results point to two distinct zones
along the SCT: an immature western SCT defined by diffuse strain
along a network of short faults and a mature central and east-
ern SCT with more localized strain along longer faults oriented
with plate motion (Fig. 10). With a constant Australia–Pacific rel-
ative plate velocity of 9.5 cm/yr (DeMets et al., 2010), 90 km
corresponds to ∼900,000 yr of plate motion. Unlike continental
strike-slip systems, however, this maturation occurs with unequal
cumulative displacement experienced across the plate boundary.
On the Australia side, total displacement ranges from 0 km to
280 km west to east before the Australia lithosphere subducts at
the Vanuatu Trench. The stable Pacific plate, on the other hand,
has experienced essentially equal cumulative slip along the SCT’s
length. Therefore fault maturation is most likely driven by fault
consolidation and orientation primarily on the Australia side of the
plate boundary.
Despite documenting a clear maturation process via the SCT’s
seismicity, we are unable to observe some of the subtler matu-
ration indicators seen along continental strike-slip systems. With-
out multi-beam bathymetric or seismic reflection data, we cannot
identify the consolidation of individual fault strands, however the
consistent geometry of the Mw ∼ 7 strike-slip events combined
with abundant small thrust faulting events with fault planes incon-
sistent with the primary strike-slip mechanism suggest that there
is at least one organized structure (or suite of structures) running
the length of the SCT. Furthermore, the limitations of the global
seismic network prevent us from observing earthquake swarms
along the immature SCT, similar to the ones along incipient strike-
slip faults in California (Thomas et al., 2013). Whether maximum
earthquake magnitude along the mature SCT increases with cu-
mulative displacement, as observed by Bohnhoff et al. (2016) for
the North Anatolian Fault, is also unresolved. The 1993 and 2015
sequences provide inconclusive evidence and the global seismic
network only provides reliable data extending back ∼40 yr. Alter-
natively, the most mature portions of the SCT may be simply not
long enough to host events exceeding Mw ∼ 7.
4.3. Moment deficit
How plate motion is accommodated along the western SCT re-
mains uncertain. The historical lack of large earthquakes along
 J.S. Neely, K.P. Furlong / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 485 (2018) 88–98
the western SCT results in a significant moment deficit along the
western 90 km of the SCT plate boundary. Post 1993 strike-slip
sequence, seismicity along the central SCT (90–220 km from the
tear), which hosts the propagating earthquakes, accounts for 50%
of the expected moment (see Supplementary Material for method-
ology). Over the same time span, earthquakes along the western
SCT (0–90 km from the tear) account for only 5% of the expected
moment. To match the central SCT’s equivalent percentage of re-
leased moment since the 1993 sequence, the western SCT would
need to host a Mw 7.1 earthquake. Expanding the time window to
1976 produces a relative moment deficit equivalent to a Mw 7.3
earthquake. Our calculations probably underestimate the moment
deficit since we are potentially projecting non-plate motion events
onto the plate boundary. A review of seismicity before 1976 does
not show any equivalently large events along the westernmost por-
tion of the SCT. A Mw 7.0 event in 1970 occurred along the SCT,
but the earthquake nucleated within the mature portion of the
SCT. Large earthquakes in the 1930s occurred nearby, but their ge-
ometry is uncertain and they appear more closely associated with
Solomon Trench subduction.
The lack of large events within the historical record along the
western 90 km zone points to two possible end member scenarios
for plate motion accommodation. Either the western 90 km expe-
riences large infrequent events with recurrence times longer than
the historical record, or plate motion is accommodated through
processes such as aseismic creep. Paleoseismic data along other
STEPs indicate that large strike-slip earthquakes can occur in-
frequently on timescales much longer than the historical record
(Bilich et al., 2001). Although not a STEP, sections along the San
Andreas Fault system with low recent seismicity have been linked
to portions of the fault that have previously experienced large his-
torical earthquakes (Jiang and Lapusta, 2016).
Aseismic creep similar to the phenomena observed along por-
tions of the San Andreas Fault system (e.g. Lienkaemper et al.,
1997) is another possible mechanism to accommodate plate mo-
tion without large events. The tearing along interconnected faults
may provide a conduit for water infiltration into the plate bound-
ary thereby reducing the effective normal stress, weakening fault
strength, and promoting aseismic creep. Mantle flow around the
torn slab (Montagner, 2007) may also influence the western SC-
T’s aseismic behavior as such mantle flow could heat the newly
exposed lithosphere edge, possibly raising the temperature of the
plate boundary and decreasing the thickness of the seismogenic
zone.
We cannot determine the specific mechanism of plate motion
accommodation along the western 90 km of the SCT with the data
available for this study. We have presented two possible west-
ern SCT end member scenarios, but the actual fault behavior may
lie somewhere between the two. Sufficiently large prehistoric mi-
grating strike-slip sequences may have propagated into a creeping
section, conceptually similar to an earthquake rupturing into the
ductile layer of the lithosphere. In this scenario, propagation into
the creep-dominated western-most section may promote SCT mat-
uration through strain localization. Only with displacement mea-
surements across the western SCT can we discern whether the
western portion of the plate boundary is locked or not.
5. Conclusion
We have examined the seismicity along the San Cristobal
Trough, connecting the Solomon–Vanuatu composite subduction
zones in the southwest Pacific Ocean, to understand the transform
plate boundary development process resulting from lithosphere
tearing. Unlike the tearing seismicity observed near Tonga, no
dominant tearing earthquake focal mechanism appears near the
SCT–Solomon Trench intersection with the 2014 events (the two
97
largest events in the historical record) indicating significantly di-
verse rupture geometries. This multi-plane tearing process likely
produces a highly fractured western plate boundary defined by a
distinctive b-value response and Coulomb Failure Stress changes
when compared to the rest of the SCT.
These changes in seismicity patterns along the SCT reveal a
west to east plate boundary maturation process. Strain localizes
with increasing displacement along a primary north-dipping fault
after ∼90 km of cumulative displacement. Seismic behavior along
the SCT remains consistent after this initial consolidation until the
far eastern end where it joins the Vanuatu Trench and is likely
principally influenced by megathrust activity.
Although seismicity along the mature portion of the SCT ap-
pears to account for a sizeable portion of the expected plate
motion, the lack of large earthquakes along the immature western
∼90 km indicates a significant seismic moment deficit. Whether
this western portion of the SCT accommodates plate motion
via aseismic slip or large, very infrequent strike-slip events re-
mains unknown. Clarifying this strain release mechanism will
further aid our understanding of fault maturation and provide
additional information regarding the seismic hazard of STEP
faults.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by internal grants from the De-
partment of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, in-
cluding the Fund for Excellence in Lithospheric Geodynamics.
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary material related to this article can be found on-
line at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.12.044.
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