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DATE: 06/05/2022 PRICE: VND 141,900 as of 06/05/2022 RECOMMENDATION: BUY (30% UPSIDE)
TICKER: FRT.HM (Reuter Eikon) TARGET PRICE: VND 181,300
29% 71%
Source: Grant Thornton, FRT, Team analysis helps fusing FPT’s tech-driven capability with FRT’s vision and goals (Appendix.E3).
Fig.07: CFA Institute Corporate CFA Institute Framework Corporate Governance | Checking all the boxes: With the
Governance Scorecard for FRT
(Details in Appendix E1) framework, we assess 4 key pillars of FRT’s governance and conclude an
Executive Committee outperforming board that aims to bring the best to the retail giant (Fig.7).
Environment
Compen-
Share- Carbon footprint | Under control thanks to location champion and evolving
holders’
sation 3.6 Right logistics: The MIT innovation lab highlights the key contributors of GHG in a traditional
Committee
Protection retail store to be transportation and property (distribution centers’ and stores’ GHG
emissions) (Fig.8). Via our geospatial analysis for Long Chau drug chain and FPT Shop
in Ho Chi Minh city, it is concluded that the FRT chooses the expansion with
Audit Committee consideration strategy for their ICT and Drug chains (Appendix.E2). The chains are
Source: CFA Institute, FRT, Team analysis
well-positioned to synergize with the locations and benefit from well-managed
Fig.08: GHG emissions of an average
retail store, breakdown by sources
distribution route. Furthermore, technological changes have been made to control
inventory, to better online customer experience, and most importantly to reduce
7%
4% unnecessary carbon footprint. While these claims are yet to be justified due to the lacks
1% of sustainability reporting from the company, we affirm the tech-driven retail chain like
18%
FRT will know what to do with their gadget to achieve sustainable operation.
Packaging Material & Waste | Starting to take action: With the nature of the retail
70% industry involves creating large volume of waste especially packaging-level waste, both
FPT Shop and Long Chau chains have started to take action, via their environment-
Transport-Level
emissions Return rates friendly packages. However, the chain needs to do more in attainment of a sustainable
Property-Level
excedent business model, and needs to both keep track and manage its waste more efficiently.
emissions Logistics Leg
Social
Packaging-Level
Corporate Social Responsibility | A giver to society: The hard-hiting pandemic has
emissions
Source: MIT Innovation Lab caused the vulnerable group of the society to be in dire situation. With each business
Fig.09: Key summary of FRT’s 2021 segment, FRT has different campaigns designed for certain groups in need, totaling
CSR initiatives [VND bn]
more than VND 10 billion in gross value. Case in point, the company has created the
Voluntary
Financial aid campaigns 7.25
for Lunar
Financial aid for New Year
bereaved employees 0.25
COVID-19 Gro
ss 2.00
Medication
valu
Food and gifts e 0.20
Internal
Founda
tion a of social insurance, and health-checkup benefits for 4,860 employees, FRT spent VND
corpora 9.0 billion on financial aids, and Covid medications for their employees and their loved
te fund ones. Virtual engagement activities were also conducted to establish bonds and to
that ensure mental well-being of company’s workers during the hard moments of 2021.
aids Human Capital Development and Management | Recently remodeled:
the Compensation and benefits scheme has been remodeled in 2021 to attract and retain
External
commu talents. Virtual trainings were conducted amid the pandemics to equip workers with
product knowledge, sales process and company’s operation. This also helps seeking
Source: FRT, Team estimates and retaining fast growing and high performing talents.
Sing.
184.9 58.5 Vietnam still has room for future growth: Although Vietnam’s drug spending per
Mal. capita is projected to be on a steep rise, even reaching 163 USD in 2025, the current
85.3 10.2
figure for Vietnam is still low compared to neighboring economies (Fig.14). With the fast
Thai.
84.3 7.3 economic growth, together with favorable demographics trends, we can confidently
Vie. envision a positive outlook for the industry in Vietnam.
70 3.5
However, it is not the OTC channel that will benefit the most: Although the ETC
Phi. channel is recently hindered by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is still expected to be the
42.5 3.4
Wolves of Nguyen Tri Phuong 5
RMIT RESEARCH CHALLENGE 2022 FPT Retail
m ain g r owth driver of the pharmaceutical industry, spurred by 2 key rationales:
Source: © Dream Incubator Group
pharmacies is also a key factor that set it apart in this fierce competition (Appendix.B1).
Moreover, Long Chau not only manages its annual business efficiency, but also
focuses on its customers’ satisfaction to dominate the race in the longer run (Fig.18).
(Key attributes included in our customer satisfaction research were Prices, Product
availability, Store accessibility, Diversified medicine portfolio). Hence, we believe that
Long Chau chains will soon become the top-pick pharmacies, especially since the
market is proved above to be more and more consolidated.
Dominance in a “thirst” for pharmacist resource: Pharmacist resource - one of the
key treasures of pharmacies’ expansion strategy - is getting involved in a race between
Customer satisfaction pharmacy retailers. Data from the Drug Administration Department of Vietnam (DAV)
Low High Mekong Delta
Source: Team analysis
Source: GSO
Fig.19: Number of pharmacists by
region 2020 [#]
Red River Delta 16,995
Northern Midlands
& Mountains 7,545
North and South
Central Coast 15,535
Centrals
Highlands 1,902
avg. 9,968
Southeast 7,655
10,178
Wolves of Nguyen Tri Phuong 7
RMIT RESEARCH CHALLENGE 2022 FPT Retail
shows that there are only 1.19
pharmacists per 10,000
Vietnamese, while the demand
for drug spending is proved to
be accelerating above. That’s
why a thirst for pharmacists
(with at least a bachelor’s
degree) starts to be more
visible. Long Chau, with the
mission to realize the
“Pharmacists with 4T”, is the
first player to apply “Virtual
Simulation Room” in its
internal training system. Also,
becoming the highest-level
partner of top pharmaceuticals
like AstraZeneca, pharmacists
at Long Chau are exposed to
many opportunities to be well
trained by foreign prestigious
organizations & and get
international certificates. We
believe that this condition not
only professionalizes the
Long Chau brand through
customers’ lens, but also
attract more pharmacists,
especially as its demand for
pharmacists is growing, even
outpaces the growth rate of
number of new pharmacists in
Vietnam (Fig.19&44).
Northern Midlands
& Mountains South East their target market to be both the traditional mom-and-pop store all over Vietnam and
North & South the modern trade channel. FRT certainly knows where, when and how to play it right.
Central Coast Mekong Delta
Digital strategy – Amplifying the power of FRT’s digital root
566 1,047 262
6% To combat a fast-moving and fast-changing drug retail market, FRT needs an adaptive
19% 18% 5% digital transformation solution, along with the development of an omni-channel business
5% 0%
11%
17%
4%
3%
56% model for Long Chau. Currently, collaboration between FPT Retail and FPT Software in
39% 55% the One team project has shown initial success when Long Chau is now a data-
33% driven retail outlet, that is advancing its brick-and-click model. New ERP software is
16% 12% being integrated into the operations of Long Chau and FRT, better the logistics and
Long Châu Pharmacity An Khang
liberalize laborious tasks. Notable, Long Chau’s Online medicine purchase application
Source: Team analysis Medical consultation
Fig.24: Long Chau mobile application Nation-wide
comparing to peers
500
# installs 100
10
[‘000]
Ecommerce-
platform ✓ ✗ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
Wolves of Nguyen Tri Phuong 9
RMIT RESEARCH CHALLENGE 2022 FPT Retail
enjoys the largest user base in Supply chain investment – The right path to operational excellence
Vietnam with the most Exerting dominance in customer experience, price and service is only at the tip of the
downloads comparing with An retail iceberg the next important thing is to manage the inventory, which has been and
Khang and Pharmacity on will be dealt with excellently by FRT via recent acquisition of Huu Nghi Viet Han logistics
both Apple App Store and company and new OMS (order managing system) developed by FRT in-house team
Google Play, marking Long and FPT Software. With Long Chau being one of the few drug chains to record positive
Chau’s fast and aggressive net income in 2021, FRT has demonstrated the ability to become the cost leader of the
participation into the omni- sector, and upcoming strategies will further ensure that Long Chau will soon achieve
channel retail model (Fig.24).
Shipping operational excellence to consolidate its rightful position in the drug retail market.
sis
Fig.25: Location overlap rate (store [3] Unique market positioning fends for ICT retail and leverages drug retail sector
overlaps in 1km radius in HCMC) Geospatial analysis – Poised for success with low store overlap
(Details in Appendix B4)
Via our extensive study on the locations of over 930+ outlets of FPT Long Chau, FPT
FPT # of stores
Long Chau
Shop, thegioididong.com (MWG.HM), and Pharmacity, we conclude FRT to have the
35% 141 most prominent control over cannibalization risk. Specifically, both Long Chau an FPT
FPT Shop
33% 106
Shop has the upper hand comparing with Pharmacity and thegioididong.com,
438
Thegioi respectively, with 35% and 33% overlap rate (meaning 3 out of 10 Long Chau or FPT
didong.com 82% 285 Shop are positioned 1km from another store), while it is 8 out of 10 for Pharmacity or
Pharmacity
81%
thegioididong.com stores (Fig.25). A further look into store’s location, we believe the
current store footprint strategy of FRT holds the key to win the competitive front via:
Source: Team analysis 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig.26: Value contribution of retail Source: Company data, team analysis
channels in Vietnam, 2015 - 2020
CAGR
25% 32% 45% 12.5%
Pharmacity
Long Chau
store 1km
radius
Traffic density
(Daily average)
High Normal
15%
10%
5%
0%
Selling expense
G&A expense
2.7%
2.3% 2.1% 2.6%
1.9%
10.7% 9.2%
8.8% 8.5% 8.5%
Industry
risks
in growth of main technology segments will decrease our target price by 5%.
Mitigation: With FRT’s strong resources base and distinctive strategy prioritizing
customer experience, we expect FRT can maintain its leading position in main business
Market Operational segments (leader in laptop and pharmaceutical segment, strong position in smartphone
risks risks
segment), allowing the company to stay strong in case of economic downturn.
Low
[M2] Market Risk | Interest Rate Risk
High
Impact FRT is highly susceptible to interest rate volatility, due to its high levels of short-term
Source: Team analysis
debts from foreign banks. Thus, regulations to control soaring inflationary pressure
Fig.41: Risk matrix
(Fig.42) could spur banks’ lending rate to rise and thereby, affect FRT’s interest
High
expense & WACC. Our analysis shows that a 1% increase in the average lending
interest rate will result in a price of VND 177,300 (2.2% downside from target price).
I3
I2 Mitigation: We believe that this is the risk that FRT has to accept, especially when
Likelihood
Long Chau pharmacy chain is expanding aggressively. Also, as FRT has just recorded
M1 I1 positive profit recently, we are confident that when Long Chau reaches a certain scale,
M2 its earning will soon help relieve its debt burden.
O1 [I1] Industry Risk | Fast-changing Technology Risk
Fast-changing technology decreases the life cycle of products when brands keep
Low Impact High
producing new products with added features in a short period (Fig.43). This pose a
Source: Team analysis
threat to FRT’s gross margin as inventory becomes obsolete and is often proceeded
Fig.42: Inflation surprises [Index]
(2020-2021)
with lower price. Also, the company also incur additional for continuously purchasing
new technology products. This risk will have high impact on FRT as 1% increase in
100
80 COGS will result in a price of 150,800VND (downgrade 17% from our target price).
60 Mitigation: FRT is capable of forecasting and updating market demand, thus the
40 inventories imported are always up to date. Therefore, this risk can be mitigated.
20
0 [I2] Industry Risk | Fierce Competition Risk
-20 Fierce competition among pharmacy chains could hinder Long Chau’s expansion efforts
-40
(FPT Shop as well). The uncontrollable dominance from Pharmacity or the emergence
of An Khang chain backed by MWG could easily seize revenue from Long Chau,
Emerging & Developing nations
especially as this industry is yet to be fully consolidated. This risk is addressed in our
World
bear scenario, leading to FRT’s valuation price of VND 171,600.
Mitigation: With FRT’s careful expansion strategy, also aiming at customer experience
Source: WorldBank, Team analysis
simultaneously, we believe that FRT, backed by FPT Co., will not only survive but
Fig.43: World replacement cycle length dominate in this industry.
of smartphones [years] (2017-2025)
[I3] Industry Risk | Pharmacist Shortage Risk
3
Our analysis shows that by 2029, Vietnamese pharmacist resource growth cannot keep
2.8 pace with that of the demand, as only Long Chau’s demand itself will make up 50% of
2.6 the total market demand basing on its current plan, let alone other pharmacies. This risk
will affect FRT’s forecast revenue growth, since Long Chau stores cannot reach
2.4
expected expansion: Reaching only 80% Long Chau’s target store openings in our
2.2 forecast period will result in a price of VND 169,700 (7% downside from target price).
Mitigation: As previously analyzed, FRT has a very quality pharmacist training
standards, applying state-of-art technologies, together with support from its prestigious
Consumer Enterprise
medical partners. This advantage will help FRT become an attractive destination for
Source: Counterpoint, Team analysis pharmacist, especially when the pharmacist supply is forecasted to be in a shortage.
Fig.44: Gap analysis for number of [1] Operational Risk | Sales Cannibalization Risk
pharmacist and demand for pharmacist
60 of FPT Long Chau [’000] 62
Sales cannibalization could be a self-threat of FRT, especially when Long Chau is
50% expanding rapidly. This could lead to consequent revenue loss, since one store could
29 32 snatch customers from another. Our sensitivity analysis shows that a 5% drop in
18 22 25
1 2 4 8 11 15 sale/store growth over the forecasted period will release a price of only VND 158,300.
Mitigation: Our research shows that FRT has a well-planned expansion strategy
2019 2021F 2023F 2025F 2027F 2029F
APPENDIX NETWORK
9. SOTP valuation
APPENDIX – GLOSSARY
APR Apple Premium Reseller offers a full service for professional and business customers, from hands-on
demonstrations and Apple-certified training courses, to affordable leasing and
financing options through Apple Financial Services
Enterprise Resource
ERP Planning (ERP) process used by companies to manage and integrate the important parts of
their businesses
a drug that is available only with written instructions from a doctor or dentist to
ETC Ethical drugs (ETC)
a pharmacist
GHG Greenhouse Gas gas that contributes to the greenhouse effect by absorbing infrared radiation
HCMC Ho Chi Minh city Vietnam's most populated key city, home to 9.1 million people (2021)
Information and Communications
ICT Technology is the infrastructure and components that enable modern computing
a chain store such as hypermarkets, supermarkets, and minimarkets whose
MT Modern Trade
operations are more organized than general trade
OMS Order Managment System a digital way to manage the lifecycle of an order
OTC Over-the-counter (OTC) drugs drugs can be bought without a prescription
stores that are owned by individuals and usually cater to local customer
TT Traditional Trade requests
Payables 1,499 706 1,288 1,215 2,336 2,474 3,712 3,874 5,102 5,280
Short-term loans and debts 1,173 2,947 3,698 2,486 6,047 7,899 11,101 13,310 16,600 18,676
Bonus and welfare funds 12 12 19 17 15 16 17 18 19 20
Current liabilites 3,075 4,009 5,308 4,162 9,107 11,254 16,051 18,730 23,540 26,121
Long-term loans and debts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other long-term payables 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non-current liabilities 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 3,075 4,009 5,314 4,162 9,107 11,254 16,051 18,730 23,540 26,122
Share premium 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share capital 400 680 790 790 790 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185
Undistributed earnings 396 454 484 424 872 1,537 2,769 4,398 6,195 8,206
Owner’s equity 796 1,159 1,279 1,225 1,679 2,721 3,954 5,583 7,380 9,391
Non-controlling interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total resources 3,871 5,168 6,594 5,388 10,786 13,975 20,005 24,313 30,920 35,512
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Quick ratio 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
Interest coverage 5.6 5.5 3.1 1.3 5.2 4.4 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.3
Solvency (Financial Leverage)
Net Debt to Equity 0.8 2.0 1.9 0.8 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7
Net Debt to Asset 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Net Debt to EBITDA 1.2 3.8 5.7 6.9 4.5 4.2 3.2 2.7 1.9 1.7
Short-term debt/asset 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Liability/asset 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Efficiency ratios
Account receivable turnovers 61.9 56.3 62.5 62.8 177.6 35.4 30.2 27.4 25.6 24.5
Account receivable days 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.8 2.1 10.3 12.1 13.3 14.2 14.9
Account payable turnovers 9.0 13.9 16.7 11.7 12.7 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6
Account payable days 41 26 22 31 29 30 30 29 29 29
Inventories turnovers 6.2 6.3 4.9 4.8 5.7 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1
Inventories days 59 58 74 75 64 78 82 85 88 89
Cash Conversion Cycle 24 38 58 50 37 59 65 69 73 75
Working Capital turnover 40.6 24.7 19.9 17.6 23.5 19.2 15.5 12.8 10.8 9.4
Working Capital days 9 15 18 21 16 19 24 29 34 39
Dupont Analysis
ROE (avg.) 44.2% 35.6% 16.7% 0.8% 30.6% 28.3% 27.1% 28.2% 29.1% 27.7%
Profit margin 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3.6%
Asset turoner (avg.) 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Equity multiplier (avg.) 6.5 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.0
F-SCORE = F-ROA + F-CFO + F-ΔROA + F-ACCRUAL + F-ΔLEVER + F-ΔLIQUID + EQ_OFFER + F-ΔMARGIN + F-ΔTURN
ACCRUAL 0 0 1 0
∆LEVER 1 1 1 1 2020
∆LIQUID 1 0 1 0
EQ_OFFER 0 0 1 1
2021
∆MARGIN 0 0 1 1
∆TURN 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
F-SCORE 5 2 7 6
Weak Average Strong FRT's F-Score
8 8
7 7
6 FRT 6 FRT
5 5
4 MWG 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Market Cap (Million USD) Market Cap (Million USD)
Conclusion: From the F-Score assessment, our view is that FRT’s performance is better than most of its peers in
technology retail and pharmaceutical retail industry
[2] Interpretation
EM Z – score < 1.1 1.1 < EM Z – score < 2.6 2.6 < EM Z – score
Distress Zone Grey Zone Safe Zone
Have high probability of bankruptcy Have moderate chance of bankruptcy, not high
but not excluded Have low or negligent probability of bankruptcy
[3] Result
FRT has EM Z-score > 2.6 in all past year, meaning that with current financial strength, the probability of FRT is negligent.
We use the Beneish’s M-score, with 8 variables to assess if FRT is manipulating its historical earnings or not. After
calculation, if the Beneish M-score is less than the -2.22, then it suggests that the company under consideration is not a
manipulator. If Beneish M-score is more than -2.22, then it provides the signal that the company can be the manipulator.
Our rating is based on 2019 onwards, after FRT’s acquisition od Long Chau.
[1] The formula
M-score = −4.84 + 0.92 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI −0.172 × SGAI − 0.327 × LVGI + 4.679 × TATA.
[2] Interpretation
[3] Result
FRT has Beneish M-score < -2.22 from 2019, meaning that FRT is not a manipulator is its earning in 2019-2021/
The main competitor of Long Chau - Pharmacity, uses a different approach targeting at major locations around
Ho Chi Minh, to establish awareness and soon, economies of scale
1 2
3 4
3 3
1 1 1 3
2
2
2
1 Servicing counter and qualified pharmacists ready to consult and prescribe customers
2 Sizeable and convenient parking space 3 Promotions showed via banners
After multiple field visits at many Long Chau stores, we affirm the store layout is a direct competition with traditional
private drug stores in the surrounding area. This is to show Long Chau’s grand strategy to acquire market share from both
Traditional Trade drug retailers and Modern Trade drug retailers.
We apply geospatial analytics tools and Python coding to map the number of FPT stores that are positioned next to
thegioididong.com, our model concludes a 21 pairs of FPT Shop – thegioididong.com across Ho Chi Minh, meaning that
21% of FPT Shop stores in Ho Chi Minh city are directly competing with thegioididong.com on the same street, same
corner, or same area. thegioididong.com is, however, downsizing its operations, with number of store declining throughout
the years. The doors is now open for FRT to take the lead and assert its dominance in the ICT Retail market.
% overlap % overlap
(1km radius) (1km radius)
81% 35%
Pharmacity stores in Ho Chi Minh city Long Chau stores in Ho Chi Minh city
% overlap % overlap
(1km radius) (1km radius)
82% 33%
thegioididong.com stores in Ho Chi Minh city FPT Shop stores in Ho Chi Minh city
APPENDIX B.5 – LONG CHAU’S HO CHI MINH CITY FOOTPRINT VERSUS OTHER PLAYERS
# stores
141 442 87
% of total store 26% 42% 35%
115 42,669
Value chain
AUTHORIZED
PHYSICAL STORE
RETAILERS
Northern
Midlands &
Mountains
12,726 7,545
# of stores
30 9 5
Central Vietnam
North &
South Central 20,343 15,535
Coast
# of stores 116 95 17 17
Central
Highlands 5,932 1,902
# of stores 34 24 12 3
South Vietnam
18,343 7,655
Southeast
Mekong Delta
# of stores
17,319 10,178
128 90 87 17 2
Ø 16,264 Ø 9,968
Thanks to the expansive strategy of FRT, Long Chau has risen to the position of the second biggest drug chain in
Vietnam. Long Chau is now the market challenger to Pharmacity, however, due to the difference between the
segmentations, Pharmacity is also competing with other convenience stores, and retailers that sell hygiene and personal
care products, while Long Chau target directly at traditional private drug stores, biting a bigger piece of this lucrative
market. 1,047
566
Total stores 262
85 15 10
605
421
Total stores
173
minus 65 3 0
HCMC
Noticeably, Ho Chi Minh has the most attractive demographics for any companies operating in this industry, our high-level
analysis shows that Pharmacity is leading the number of stores in 5/6 economic zones, however, with 42% of company’s
total stores are located Ho Chi Minh city, while this number is 26% for Long Chau. Long Chau is rapidly bridging the gap
Competitive rivalry
BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS
TECHNOLOGY RETAIL - 4
• Suppliers are well-known brands with distinctiveness
in products. Therefore, retailers usually have to Bargaining Threat of
accept the price quoted when buying from supplier power of new
and have to sell the products with higher price to gain customers entrants
profits.
PHARMACEUTICAL RETAIL - 3
PHARMACEUTICAL RETAIL – 5
• All top players in the industry have strong backup
(Pharmacity with Mekong Cap, LC with FPT Group,
An Khang with MWG, etc)
• All are involved in the race for market share
• Rapid expansion growth, fast penetration, many
Wolves of Nguyen Tri Phuong 22
RMIT RESEARCH CHALLENGE 2022 FPT Retail
TECHNOLOGY RETAIL – 2
• Capital requirement is high as business needs
to purchase a big amount of supply to benefit
from discounts.
• Giants keep gaining market share through
intense pricing strategies and promotions.
• Government has stricter policies on hand-
carried, unauthorized products.
PHARMACEUTICAL RETAIL – 1
• Cash-burning race from giants will make no room
for mom-and-pop stores or newcomers
• Also, Customer usually buy medicine on prestige,
and brand image. Also, favorable locations are
often taken by old players.
Items Assumptions
Store openings: We forecast that the number of existing stores in 2026F will be 847 (832 FPT Shop, 15
F.Studio). Regarding the expansion in the next 5 years, we expect FRT to have 200 more FPT Shop stores
(expanding its coverage to other provinces, not just cities) and not open more F Studio (because FRT has once
failed to open 200 stores and dominance in Apple mono store is threaten as Apple expands partnership with
other brands). We assume that more stores opened will cause sales cannibalization among stores, so we
forecast that the rate of new store openings will decline gradually over the projected 5 years, with a total of 70
new store openings in 2022F and only 10 in 2026F.
Revenue growth | Laptops and tablets (excluding Macbook) (main growth of Technology Retail): With the
leading position in the laptops segment, acquiring 21% of the market (according to Fitch Solution), we forecast
the laptop segment of FRT grows at a CAGR of 10% until 2026F. From there, the proportion of revenue
increases from 28% to 35.52% in 2026F. Our assumption is completely consistent with the company's business
strategy to focus on laptop segment.
Revenue Revenue growth | Smartphones (excluding iPhone): The smartphone segment in Vietnam is reaching
saturation, and thus, it becomes extremely competitive. Therefore, the company is switching its focus to new
products with higher margins such as Xiaomi or Huawei, …. Based on current industry situation and company
strategies, we forecast the smartphone segment to grows at a CAGR of 5% until 2026F, contributing around
28.15% of total revenue.
Revenue growth | Apple (main growth segment of Technology Retail): With the success in 2021, Apple
products are still a potential revenue source in the future for FRT. However, we still hold a conservative view on
this segment because FRT’s dominance in Apple mono stores is threaten by many newcomer. Therefore, we
forecast that this segment grows at CAGR of 5% until 2026F, and also reduce its contribution in revenue from
40% to 28.22% by 2026F. We believe our assumption is in line with the strategy of the company to diversify the
contribution of products, rather than focus on distinctive category.
Overall, we forecast the SSSG (%) will grow by an average of 5.14% during 2022F-2026F.
We forecast the gross profit margin of laptop segment, which has a high gross profit margin of 12% in 2021, to
reach 15% in 2026F. Meanwhile, the smartphone segment is forecast to gain a gross profit margin of 18% as
Gross Profit Margin the company actively seeks high-margin products such as those from China (Xiaomi, Huawei). On the other
hand, Apple segment's gross margin has long been stable at 10% historically, so we forecast this segment's
gross margin will also stay the same. Overall, the company's total gross profit margin will reach 14.03% in
2026F.
A significant amount of cash will be transferred to CAPEX in the coming years due to the expansion plan of FPT
CAPEX Shop. We have determined that the amount required to open a store is VND 587 million in 2017 based on
company historical data. In addition, the cost to open a store will also increase with inflation, Based on Vietnam's
average inflation, we expect a 2.5% increase in the cost of opening a store each year. Therefore, we project
Capex over the next 5 years at 137 billion for 200 new stores, an average of 685 million per store.
Items Assumptions
Stores opening: We hold an aggressive view Long Chau’s expansion capacity and forecast that Long Chau will
reach 2090 stores by 2026F, and 3634 stores by the end of 2031F. Regarding the expansion strategy in the
coming years, we assume that the company will focus only small pharmacies (with an area of 50-60m 2), not
medium and large ones. Moreover, we also assume Long Chau stores will be traditionally formatted, and try to
dominate the market shares of mom&pop stores. Therefore, we forecast the company will open about 350 more
stores each year and gradually reduce it to 300 by 2031F, with the goal of reaching around 20-30% market
Revenue share of the pharmaceutical retail segment.
SSSG: We assume that the consumer’s behaviour will change after the pandemic. They will less likely spending
much time and money for hospital for common diseases, but instead buy medicine or self-treat at home.
Besides, we also based on Fitch Solution's analysis of OTC and ETC drug consumption growth rate, which is
9.25% and 10.83% CAGR, respectively, during the period 2018 – 2026 to consolidate or forecast. Overall, we
drive the final forecast that Long Chau's SSSG will continue to grow, reaching 8% in 2022 and gradually
decreasing to 2% in 2027F then maintaining at 2% until 2031F.
As Long Chau has huge advantage in high SKU and high market share, the bargaining power towards suppliers
Gross Profit Margin is relatively high. Therefore, we forecast the gross profit margin to reach 21% in 2022F, gradually increase to
25% in 2026F, and remain the same till 2031F.
Based on our analysis, the amount required to open a large drug store (150m 2) is more than 1 billion VND, a
medium drug store (80-100m2) is about 800 million VND and a small drug store (50-60m2) is 600 million VND. In
addition, the cost to open each store will also increase with inflation. Based on Vietnam's average inflation, we
CAPEX
expect a 2.5% increase in the cost to open a new store each year. According to the company's strategy to open
only small stores (mom&pop model) in the near future, we forecast the Capex needed is VND 2,220 billion for
3234 new stores openings in the next 10 years, with an average of VND 686 million per store.
Pharmceutical retail: VND Billion 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F Pharmaceutial retail: VND Billion
Net income 4 63 217 527 984 1,317 1,573 1,831 2,092 2,356 2,687
Cumulative PV of FCFF (1,942)
Non-cash charge 0 15 29 44 59 74 89 105 120 135 151
After-tax interest expense 20 46 80 116 152 184 215 249 287 327 306 Terminal value 27,124
Capex (1) (216) (219) (222) (224) (227) (228) (229) (231) (232) (236) PV of terminal value 10,807
Working capital investment (873) (1,734) (936) (1,865) (981) (1,959) (925) (2,015) (987) (2,075) (1,065) Firm value 8,865
(850) (1,826) (828) (1,399) (11) (611) 724 (60) 1,281 512 1,843
FCFF 4 63 217 527 984 1,317 1,573 1,831 2,092 2,356 2,687 Cash and bank depostis 145
Debts 1,307
WACC 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Discount period (years) 0.65 1.65 2.65 3.65 4.65 5.65 6.65 7.65 8.65 9.65 Equity Value 7,703
Discount factor 0.94 0.85 0.78 0.71 0.64 0.58 0.53 0.48 0.44 0.40 FRT Ownership % 85.07%
Present value (PV) of FCFF (1,716) (708) (1,086) (8) (392) 422 (32) 618 224 734 Attributable Equity Value 6,553
MWG VN Equity The Gioi Di Dong Vietnam 0.96 Unlevered beta 1.08
DGW VN Equity Digiworld Corporation Vietnam 1.06 Net Debt / Equity 0.22
PET VN Equity PetroVietnam General Services JSC Vietnam 0.84 Tax rate (%) 19.63%
ERAA IJ Equity Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA) Indonesia 1.66 Levered beta 1.27
1373 HK Equity International Housewares Retail Co Ltd HongKong 0.69 Adjusted beta (*) 1.18
Average 1.08
600833 CH Equity Shanghai No1 Pharmacy Co Ltd China 1.06 Net Debt / Equity 0.06
9627 JP Equity Ain Pharmaciez Inc Japan 1.13 Tax rate (%) 2.06%
3148 JP Equity Create SD Holdings Co Ltd Japan 0.5 Adjusted beta (*) 0.80
9267 JP Equity Genky Drugstores Co Ltd Japan 0.83
Average 0.66
Comparable
Key relevant markets business model (ICT
> Vietnam retail)
Technology retail > Philipines Relevant business > Company 1
> Indonesia positioning > Company 2
> Japan Down-stream > …
> China retail value chain
> South Africa ICT retail and
> Thailand Pharmaceutical
> Hongkong retail Comparable
> India business model Shortlist of
Pharmaceutical retail (Drug retail) attractive
> Company 1
> Company 2
comparable
> … peer group
To choose the right market
To choose the business To choose the right company
model Relevant business Main revenue source
> The main revenue source of the
Relevant market positioning comparables should be from
Criteria
> Matching GDP growth, > Companies whose source of respective sector of FRT
population, and economic revenue come from Modern
Key financial measures
cycle Trade channel
> Operations sharing resemblance
> Matching trade and retail Key differentiators to the operations of FRT
policies aligned with the > ICT Retail and Drug Retail > Same revenue growth
tech. retail and (And other relevant Retail
pharmaceutical retail format)
segment > Nationwide foot print
TECHNOLOGY RETAIL Growth factor Probability factor Risk factor RELATIVE ASSESSMENT Adj. P/S Statistics
Q1 11.47
(Adjusted P/E) (CAGR 2019-2021) (Avg. 2019-2021) (Avg.2019-2021) Historic 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Median 11.97
Q3 13.23
Revenue NI to sha Risk Market P/E Relative P/E P/E P/E P/E P/E Bear Spread 0.50x
Beta Ticker Country GPM ROE* ROIC* Bull Spread 1.26x
growth reholder index* P/E (LTM) P/E (LTM) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.96 MWG VN Equity Vietnam 10.40% 13.56% 21.32% 26.21% 21.10% 2.23 14.47 21.25 1.47 18.29 13.01 13.16 13.59 19.70
10.58 8.39 5.81 13.79 16.56 Attributable equity value
1.06 DGW VN Equity Vietnam 58.00% 100.74% 6.82% 28.08% 29.09% 2.31 14.47 15.58 1.08
Earning Forward 12M 614
0.84 PET VN Equity Vietnam 33.44% 51.00% 5.5% 10.1% 6.8% 1.60 14.47 14.69 1.02 8.19 6.57 5.74 10.53 12.36 P/E 11.97
1.31 COM7 TB Equity Thailand 22.00% 44.93% 13.1% 42.2% 30.6% 1.88 19.88 36.20 1.82 31.96 20.95 26.24 31.45 37.33 Implied Equity Value 7,350
(bn. VND)
1.66 ERAA IJ Equity Indonesia 14.20% 84.15% 10.0% 11.4% 8.8% 2.45 13.92 8.31 0.60 6.28 8.03 19.51 11.46 9.38
FRT Ownership % 100%
1.03 REDI IN Equity India 7.34% 18.44% 1.9% 13.7% 14.8% 1.62 23.72 14.83 0.63 9.48 12.19 8.01 5.18 9.82 Attributable Equity Value 7,350
(bn. VND)
0.69 1373 HK Equity HongKong 7.63% 47.15% 45.9% 21.8% 29.5% 1.86 10.93 10.52 0.96 14.43 10.89 12.41 9.00 7.67
1.08 Average peers 14.20% 47.15% 10.01% 21.84% 21.10% 1.88 1.08 0.91 0.72 0.84 0.87 1.00
Relative to peers 0.93x 0.93x 0.91x 1.03x 0.97x 1.03x 1.04x
FRT (FPT Shop) 6.48% 33.85% 12.80% 18.18% 24.63% 2.00
Target P/E adjusted from market 14.47 15.64 13.10 10.49 12.20 12.54 14.52
Target P/E adjusted from financial performance 0.93x 14.60 12.24 9.79 11.39 11.71 13.56
PHARACEUTICAL RETAIL Growth factor Probability factor Risk factor RELATIVE ASSEMENT
Adjusted P/S (CAGR 2019-2021 (Avg. 2019-2021) 2019-2021 Historic 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Revenue Market
Beta Ticker Country CFO GPM Risk index* P/S Relative P/S P/S P/S P/S P/S Adj. P/S Statistics
growth P/E (LTM) P/S(LTM) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1 0.68
0.5 RRHI Phillip. -0.56% -20.64% 22.53% 1.46 22.49 0.53 0.02 1.16 0.84 0.77 0.68 0.65 Median 0.77
1.18 KAEF IJ Equity Indo. 16.27% -66.00% 36.73% 2.98 13.92 0.64 0.05 2.45 1.71 0.74 2.36 1.05 Q3 0.82
-0.47 002727 CH Equity China 22.10% 39.90% 39.81% 1.84 12.34 0.79 0.06 1.37 1.10 1.26 1.52 1.56 Bear Spread 0.08x
0.54 603883 CH Equity China 19% 25% 33.44% 2.05 12.34 1.57 0.13 2.25 1.42 1.57 1.81 1.28 Bull Spread 0.06x
0.81 600713 CH Equity China 14% 6.49% 3.34 12.34 0.11 0.01 0.19 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11
1.06 600833 CH Equity China 10% -42% 18.52% 1.03 12.34 1.45 0.12 1.99 1.73 1.69 1.37 1.49
1.13 9627 JP Equity Japan 6% 3% 15.98% 0.51 27.6 0.64 0.02 0.99 0.93 1.14 0.73 0.72 Attributable equity value
0.31 3034 JP Equity Japan 8% 53% 12.73% 1.13 27.6 0.24 0.01 0.42 0.51 0.40 0.30 0.36 Sales forward 10,569
P/S forward 0.77
0.91 3341 JP Equity Japan 4% 19% 17.50% 1.01 27.6 0.12 0.00 0.22 0.24 0.18 0.19 0.13
Implied Equity Value 8,117
0.55 7679 JP Equity Japan 7% -21% 22.93% 1.40 27.6 0.30 0.01 0.83 0.57 0.43 0.46 0.40 (bn. VND)
0.56 2664 JP Equity Japan 0% -26% 22.36% 0.84 27.6 0.16 0.01 0.22 0.16 0.15 0.23 0.19 FRT Ownership % 85.07%
0.5 3148 JP Equity Japan 11% -5% 27.67% 0.86 27.6 0.54 0.02 0.67 0.77 0.52 0.67 0.60 Attributable Equity Value 6,905
0.83 9267 JP Equity Japan 20% 71% 22.00% 1.16 27.6 0.32 0.01 0.69 0.38 0.41 0.40 0.32 (bn. VND)
0.89 DCPJ Sth. Africa 0% 66% 23.25% 1.27 14.86 1.11 0.07 1.13 1.52 1.04 0.78 0.73
0.8 Average peers 8.93% 2.85% 22.45% 1.22 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04
Relative to peers 1.06x 2.55x 1.81x 0.98x 1.55x
FRT (FPT Shop) 177.62% 86% 20.15% 2.44
Target P/S adjusted from market 14.47 0.56 0.95 0.77 0.67 0.78 0.63
(*) ROE (%) = Net income attributed to common shareholder / (Total Equity - Minority interest); ROIC (%) = Net Income / (Total Asset - Cash & Cash Equivalent - Shorterm Investment-Payables)
Risk Index = (Days Sales Outstanding + Days of Inventory on Hand) / DPO * (1-Operating Margin)
VND
140,000 141,900
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
5/5/2020 5/5/2021 5/5/2022
PHARMACEUTICAL RETAIL
Pharmaceutical Retail | Revenue 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F
Long Chau store openings
Best Case 400 389 378 367 356 345 334 323 312 300
Base Case 350 344 338 332 326 320 314 308 302 300
Worst Case 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
%Revenue growth per store
Best Case 10% 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Base Case 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Worst Case 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Pharmaceutical Retail | Fixed Assets 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F
%Inflation (Construction prices)
Best Case 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Base Case 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Worst Case 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Source: Team analysis
Valuation Method Implied Equity Value (Bn. VND) Weight (%) Value (Bn. VND) Effective Interest Ownership Attributed Value to FRT (Bn.VND)
[2] Result: after running simulations with 100,000 iterations, we observe that there is a 100% probability of yielding the
price higher than 20% above the current price of VND 141,900 on 6 May, 2022. From the Sensitivity Check, we can also
conclude that the most sensitive variable in the model is the number of new stores opening of Long Chau and annual
revenue growth (%) per store. This is completely in line with FRT's expansion strategy as well as Long Chau's
competitive advantage in the pharmaceutical retail segment.
2000
New Long Chau
74%
stores opened
1500 18%
%growth in
revenue
6%
1000 New FPT Shop
stores
1%
%growth in mobile
500 revenue
1%
%growth in
0 laptop
172,457 188,569
Audit Committee
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
as
Directorship 4 stipulated in the Articles of Incorporation, with 3
directorships
advisory board members
Elections Majority voting in director elections 3 Directors are elected through majority voting
Related party transactions are fully disclosed. The
Related Party No materialistic related fair value for transactions and leasing terms
Transactions party transactions 3 are evaluated objectively by external property
consultants
Board of at least 5 but no more than 15
Board Members members 4 The Board consists of 11 members
AUDIT COMMITTEE
Independent Board's Audit Committee should be The audit committee or the Supervisory Board is led by
Audit independent 4 Mr.Nguyen Dinh Hung – Head of the Supervisory Board
Selection Company should allow shareholders to The appointment, reappointment, or removal of the external
of
Auditor 4 auditor is recommended by the audit committee, approved by
ratify the selection of auditor
the Board, and ratified by shareholders
Average score 4
COMPENSATION COMMITTEE
Performance The Boards did have shares payment policy as part of its
A portion of executive 3
current compensation for Directors and Officers
Metrics
compensations should be in the form
of equity
Average score 4
HOANG TRUNG KIEN TRINH HOA GIANG NGUYEN DAC VIET DUNG LE HONG VIET
Member of BOD, CEO Member of BOD, EVP Outside Director Outside Director
NGUYEN DO QUYEN HOANG CAO CHUNG NGO QUOC BAO TRAN THANH HA
PHAM DUY HOANG NAM
COO CHRO CXMO CIO
CFO
Bachelor at Thuongmai
Hoang Cao Chung CHRO University • CHRO, FPT Retail
2021 • Vice Principal, FPT University