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Cross-border travel will probably not recover to pre-covid levels until 2024
Early in the pandemic, most forecasters reckoned that international travel would
not recover to the levels of 2019 before 2023 at the earliest, and more likely in
2024. That still seems a reasonable bet. Restrictions on international jaunts are
still tight and are lifting only slowly. Even now only three countries—Colombia,
Costa Rica and Mexico—impose no restrictions on visitors, while 88 countries
are still closed completely and many more have draconian policies in place. But
as vaccination rates climb and infections fall, rules will be relaxed and routes will
reopen. Much of the world’s population was barred from entering the United
States until its rules changed in November.
The recovery will be uneven. Domestic travel in large countries has already
bounced back—America is getting closer to pre-covid levels and China has
surpassed them already. Regional travel is picking up. IATA, an airline-industry
body, reckons Europe could be back to nearly four-fifths of pre-pandemic levels
in 2022. But Asia’s recovery has been slow and may continue to lag the rest of
the world. Long-haul travel will remain at low levels until vaccinations are more
widespread and the plethora of rules and regulations become easier to navigate.
Leisure bookings surge whenever countries lift restrictions on foreign travel, and
unless a new, more dangerous mutation of covid-19 emerges, that huge pent-up
demand will help fill planes again on short-haul routes. Businesses, however,
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plan to spend less on travel. Surveys suggest that budgets are typically being cut
by 20-40%. The gloomiest prognosticators reckon half of all business travel
could be gone for good. Many meetings and conferences will remain virtual, or at
least take place in hybrid form with far fewer people attending in person.
If that is not exclusive enough, a new covid-free destination took off in 2021 and
is expected to welcome many more visitors in the coming years. If you have
several hundred thousand dollars to spare, you can book a ticket for a flight to
outer space.