051002-00114 - Critical Thinking

Critical
thinking
Critical thinking and the art of decision-making
CHAPTER 1– WHAT IS CRITICAL THINKING

Introduction
Critical thinking is the ability and willingness to evaluate statements and make objective
judgements based on well-founded reasons and evidence rather than on emotions or
anecdotes. When we think critically we arrive at the best possible reasoning in any situation.
This requires careful examination and evaluation of beliefs and actions, paying attention to
the process of reasoning, not just the outcome.
Think about your answer well before moving on.
Think carefully about your answers before moving on to the conceptual framework. To think
carefully about these claims is to think critically. To look for flaws in arguments, to resist
claims that are not sufficiently supported, to evaluate evidence, to consider alternative points
of view, and to be impartial in accurately presenting opposing views.Critical thinking is a
tool that guides us in our quest for understanding, and one that we must continually
develop throughout our lives. No one becomes a perfect critical thinker who is completely
unaffected by emotional reasoning and wishful thinking. People are less open than we think.
It is much easier to question someone else's argument than to critically examine our own.
Example 1:
The person you report to comments after hearing about a client issue you are
working on: "Don't worry. Our customers are very loyal. They are not going to
change us for the competition.
Would you follow their recommendation? What would help you make the
decision?
Example 2:
An advertisement for a children's dental clinic reads: "Lovingly caring for what you
love most at home for over 50 years.
Does it convince you? What do you value most? If not, what evidence would
you like to have and why?
Example 3:
We read the following headline in a newspaper: "Eliminating 100% of human CO2

emissions is possible and also cost effective”
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Conceptual Framework
Delphi report
Richard Paul and Linda Elder1 consider that thinking critically involves asking questions such
as:
• What is really going on in this situation?
• Am I fooling myself when I think that ….?
• What are the consequences if you do not ….?
• If I want to do X, what is the best way to prepare for it? How can I prepare myself
to be more successful doing Y?
• Is this my real problem or do I need to focus attention elsewhere??
According to the Delphi report (1990), the result of a research project lasting more than two
years to agree on a definition of critical thinking, critical thinking is understood as "self-
regulated and purposeful judgement resulting in interpretation, analysis, evaluation and
inference; as well as explanation of the conceptual, methodological, criteriological or
contextual evidential considerations on which that judgement is based. Critical thinking is
fundamental as a research tool. As such, it is a liberating force in education and a
powerful resource in one's personal and civic life. While not synonymous with 'good
thinking', critical thinking is a pervasive human phenomenon, enabling self-rectification”
(Facione, 1990, p. 2).2
The report also identified a list of key critical thinking skills, which are valuable for developing
numerous activities. As can be seen in the table below, each skill includes a number of sub-
skills (Facione, P. (2007)3:
2
3
1
Learning the Art of Critical Thinking (HBP)
2
Translation of the definition taken from Suárez, M. J. V., & Morán, H. F. (2012).
Development of critical thinking in higher education students in El Salvador. Overview,
6(10), 7-20.
Facione, P. (2007). Pensamiento Crítico: ¿Qué es y por qué es importante. Insight
assessment, 22.
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Meta-cognition
Both in business and in our day-to-day lives, it is common to act without analysing all the
factors that influence a given situation, not taking the time to assess the issue from different
points of view. We often adopt the first solution that comes to mind without considering the
available evidence, or worse, considering only the evidence that supports our initial beliefs.
Meta-cognition, or the ability to think about our own thinking, or rather the lack of it, causes
people to be overconfident in their own abilities.
Thinking about our thinking

One of the most important, and at the same time most complex, steps in thinking critically is
to 'question' our own thinking, not for the purpose of badmouthing ourselves, but
to improve and begin to develop our thinking skills. This exercise of "self-assessment"
requires us to understand how our thinking is structured, to observe its implications and to
recognise the points on which our point of view rests. Only with commitment and daily
practice can we achieve fundamental changes in our thinking. This exercise will enable us to
become aware of our bad thinking habits and that we can learn to think better.
When we think critically:
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Looking more deeply at the subject

Principle of association
Our mind works by identifying patterns, relationships, coherences and links
between the information available to it, in response to any stimulus it receives from
the outside. This principle of association allows us to connect the available
information and respond more or less automatically to the connections created,
ignoring, reacting, fleeing or attacking, depending on the emotional label we have
stored in our memory.
Example
A few weeks ago Luis was appointed head of the marketing department. He notices
that, since his promotion, Juan's behaviour has changed. He doesn't call him for
coffee in the mornings, doesn't take an active part in meetings and leaves his reports
on his desk when he's not in his office to avoid talking to him. He doesn't think it's fair
that Juan reacts in this way. He has worked hard to get the promotion, and he is not
going to let anyone stop him from excelling. He is determined to speak clearly to Juan
to tell him that he is very disappointed with his attitude and that he will take action if
he doesn't change his attitude.
Luis tries to make sense of Juan's behaviour. He thinks he is jealous. He is upset that
he reacts in this way to his appointment. He doesn't accept such childish and
unprofessional behaviour. He is angry. He decides to respond by confronting Juan
and setting the record straight.
People are continually trying to recognise patterns around us in order to develop rules that
allow us to create faster and more effective decision-making processes. This recognition
process is key to understanding how we learn and make decisions. It is a cognitive process
where we look for the correspondence between a stimulus and the information we have
stored in our memory. Thus, when faced with a new situation, our mind makes assumptions
based on past experiences and judgements.
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The thoughts and experiences stored in our memory are not neutral, they are assigned
an emotional label that influences whether we should pay attention or ignore what is
happening, when we should respond, now or later, and what type of response to give, attack
or flee.
Our survival depends, at certain times, on our ability to respond quickly to events that happen
to us, a scooter that unexpectedly crosses in front of us at full speed, a customer's facial
expression of displeasure after presenting our offer etc. This automatic mode of thinking
contrasts with the slower, more deliberate mode of thinking we need in order to develop
a business proposal or interpret a market trend chart.
Reflection on the subject

01. What relationship do you think exists between critical thinking and leadership, decision
making and problem solving?
02. What quality of decision-making can an organisation expect if many of its middle
managers have moderate to weak thinking and reasoning skills?
03. What are your strengths and areas for improvement as a critical thinker?
12 Angry Man (Lumet, S. 1957)

We recommend you to watch all movie. One option is in Amazon prime. (
12 Angry Men (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, 1957) is an American film directed by Sidney Lumet.
In the story, the twelve members of a jury must try a teenager accused of killing his father.
All but one are convinced of the defendant's guilt. The dissenting juror tries to introduce a
reasonable doubt into the debate to make his fellow jurors reconsider and change their vote.
(FILMAFFINITY)
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Tips
Before making a decision, assess whether a fair, objective, accurate and information-
based approach has been used that is relevant to the case.
Critical thinking requires a "healthy" dose of scepticism and good judgment.
Be aware of the impact it has on the organization, understanding that decisions and actions
influence the business both inside and outside the "functional space”. Understand how the
organization as a whole works and how the different parties work together.
Operate with a holistic approach in order to ensure that the right issues are addressed and
that manageable risks are taken.
Tools
Below you have complementary material so that you can delve into the chapter:
VIDEO:
• Daniel, K. (2011) Thinking, fast and slow. Nueva York. Ed Farrar, Straus and
Giroux
• Meercier, H. (2018) How can you change someone's mind?
• Lee Bouygues, H. (2019) 3 Simple Habits to Improve Your Critical
Thinking . Harvard Business Review.
Summary
The main challenge facing most professionals is "making good decisions". Critical thinking
can help in this exercise.
It is the most imporant competence according to the report “The Jobs of the future” of the
World and Economic Forum (WEF, 2019).The particular way in which each person interprets
reality influences the response he or she gives. Two aspects influence this process:
01. The mind is an expert "pattern identifier", a necessary exercise to make sense of
stimuli received from the environment.
02. The mind uses these patterns to recall similar situations stored in memory.
03. The emotional labelling of these memories influences the response to them.
Although the automatism of this process helps us to be more efficient in our daily decision
making, in other cases it plays tricks on us. Being aware of our own thought process is
an important step towards thinking critically.
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CHAPTER 2– ANALYSE ARGUMENTS

Introduction
We have selected the above text, taken from a website selling quick weight loss products,
because of the number of claims that are mentioned without reasons or evidence to support
them. Advertisements like this one are common, and help us understand how important it
is to analyse arguments and recognise fallacies as a step before making a decision.
Structure of an argument
An argument consists of one or more statements that are used to support a
conclusion. The statements are reasons or premises of the argument, which are used
with the aim of persuading the audience of the truth or possible truth.
Let us imagine that, given the high dropout rate in Spain, we want to convince a group of
young people not to abandon their studies before graduating. What reasons can we give to
support our conclusion?
Some examples:
• Graduates tend to be more satisfied with their lives than early school leavers.
• Graduates tend to have more and better job opportunities than early leavers.
• That graduates tend to be more financially stable than early school leavers.
Argumentation is a process of changing points of view. In the above case, our aim is to
change the previous viewpoint or belief (studying is useless) to a new belief or viewpoint
(graduating can offer me many opportunities) through reasoning.
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Often the conclusions and reasons are marked, they are integrated in the exposition, be it
oral or written, which may occupy one or several paragraphs, one or several chapters, a
book... The key to be considered an argument is that it has at least one conclusion and
one or several reasons.
Some examples of statements that cannot be considered as arguments are:

• I’d rather study science than arts the reasons for the preference are not described.
• We went to the hotel; we went out to dinner, and it started to snow, it is a
description of activities. There are no reasons or conclusions.
• Don’t trust strangers it is an opinion that does not incorporate any reason.
• Is everything ready? it's a simple question.
Example 1 : let's analyze the following text.

Identify whether or not the following paragraph is an argument and justify your answer:
Every year, thousands of people decide to forgo meat and fish and find there are a lot of
health benefits to it. And while it may seem like your diet will be lacking some serious protein,
there are actually a lot of other protein alternatives you can turn to during a meat shortage.
Plus, a lot of plant-based protein is great for your body! Not only are plant-based proteins
great for your overall metabolism and digestion, but it can even protect you from disease.
Parragraph from the article: Eatthis, May 6th, 2020, What happens to your body when you
stop eating meat?
Solution:
It is an argument because it has:
Claim/conclusion: Not only are plant-based proteins great for your overall metabolism and
digestion, but it can even protect you from disease.
Reasons:
• While it may seem like your diet will be lacking some serious protein, there are
actually a lot of other protein alternatives you can turn to during a meat shortage.
• A lot of plant-based protein is great for your body.
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Determining whether one or more statements are arguments is not always

straightforward. There are times when conclusions and/or reasons are not explicitly
expressed in statements, seeming not to be arguments, when in fact they are.
Example 2 : consider the following slogan:
Although at first it seems like a simple claim, the company's marketing department expects
consumers to generate their own claim and reasons to consume the product.:
Statement:
Drink Coca-Cola.
Reasons:
• It changes your mood.
• You’ll feel great when you drink it.

Parts of an arguement
Let's take a closer look at each of the parts of an argument (assertion or conclusion,
reasons or premises, and assumptions) and how to graphically reflect the relationship
between the elements of an argument.
Asertion or conclusion
The conclusion states the purpose of the argument, the belief or point of view to be conveyed,
which will be supported by reasons or premises. As it is the easiest part of the argument to
identify, it is usually the first part of the argument to be identified when analysing an argument.
It is common for the conclusion to be preceded by nexuses such as:
• Therefore, I would like to...
• In that way, ...
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• States that ...

• Consequently, the...
• This indicates that ....
• We can conclude that....
• In short, ....
• For all these reasons, ...
• It is clear that …
Reasons or premises
The reasons are intended to support the conclusion. They answer the question Why should
we believe the conclusion? Unfortunately, reasons are not always easy to identify. The good
news is that, as with conclusions, in some cases nexuses are used to introduce them,
although the reason does not always follow the nexus:
• Because...
• For ...
• If ...
• Since ...
• The reasons are ...
• It can be deduced from ...
• First of all ….
Example:
The conclusión and reason in the following extract:
Peter Kalmus, a scientist specializing in climate from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
argues that the expression climate change should be replaced with climate collapse because,
as he explains in an essay published in the latest OpenMind book.
By 2018, warming of about 1.2°C beyond the preindustrial baseline has already
caused unacceptable impacts, but these impacts will worsen precipitously as warming
proceeds”
From the article: BBVA openmind (27th of march 2020) Taking care of the planet during the
crisis.
• Claim/conclusion: The expresión climate change should be replaced with
climate collapse
• Reasons:
o By 2018, warming of about 1.2°C beyond the preindustrial baseline
has already caused unacceptable impacts.
o These impacts will worsen precipitously as warming proceeds.
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Assumptions
An assumption is something we take for granted without any evidence to prove it.
Assumptions can be implicit (not mentioned) and explicit (mentioned directly), the former
being more frequent.
Example:
Let´s identify assumptions from another excerpt from the previous article:
In terms of the margin to take action to stop this collapse, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that we have just 11 years to prevent the situation from
becoming irreversible. Thus, the expression climate emergency seems much more
appropriate, and essential to raise awareness of the importance of taking measures to
prevent ecosystem destruction. All living creatures that inhabit the planet have started to
suffer the consequences. In 2020, the United Nations Decade on Biodiversity will conclude.
This initiative aims to combat the loss of species and biological wealth that has led to an
alarming situation. Since 1970, populations of vertebrate species have declined by an
average of 60 percent, according to WWF’s Living Planet Report.
Assumptions:
• There is a problem, and we are not stopping the problem.
• We do not have time to waste. We need immediate action
• The estimations of the IPCC are correct
• The situation is dramatic because we have not done anything to solve it
• We still have time to correct the situation.
• Semantics are important to raise awareness of the situation.
• Current social behaviour proves that society is not aware of the problem
• Awareness will bring action
• Society is not taking the right measures to prevent ecosystem destruction
• We are losing species and biological wealth because of the human inaction/lack
of awareness
• The United Nations Decade on Biodiversity have failed on its purpose
• The WWF’s Living Planet Report is trustworthy
Argument map
Once we identify the parts of an argument, we can analyse how they relate to each other,
and one of the best ways to understand that relationship is to represent it in the form of a
diagram.
Example:
Let us now graphically represent the conclusion and reasons found in the extract of the
previous article.
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Peter Kalmus, a scientist specializing in climate from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
argues that the expression climate change should be replaced with climate collapse because,
as he explains in an essay published in the latest OpenMind book.
“ By 2018, warming of about 1.2°C beyond the preindustrial baseline has already
caused unacceptable impacts, but these impacts will worsen precipitously as warming
proceeds”
Explain Peter Kalmus
• Claim/conclusion: The expresión climate change should be replaced with
climate collapse.
• Reasons:
o By 2018, warming of about 1.2°C beyond the preindustrial baseline
has already caused unacceptable impacts.
o These impacts will worsen precipitously as warming proceeds.
Once identified, we show graphically how they relate:
In this case the conclusion "the expresión climate change should be replaced with climate
collapse" is supported by two reasons "by 2018, warming of about 1.2°C beyond the
preindustrial baseline has already caused unacceptable impacts" and "these impacts will
worsen precipitously as warming proceeds".
As the graph shows, in this case, the reasons are complementary, i.e. both reasons must be
given for the conclusion to be true.
Example: Let us now identify the conclusion and reasons for another paragraph of the
previous article.
According to bank data, every person produces 270 kilograms of trash per year. The
key to sustainable consumption is for people to play an active role in reducing the
waste they produce. Product selection will be crucial to reducing the impact of every
household given the climate crisis in which we find ourselves.
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• Claim/conclusion: Product selection will be crucial to reducing the impact of

every household given the climate crisis in which we find ourselves.
• Reasons:
o The key to sustainable consumption is for people to play an active role
in reducing the waste they produce.
o Every person produces 270 kilograms of trash per year.
Relationship between the parties to the argument:
In this case we have one reason supporting the conclusion (answers the question why
product selection will be crucial, and one evidence that supports the idea os the active role
that people can play. The more elaborate the arguments, the more reasons will support the
conclusion, so that the reasons for one conclusion are the conclusions of another reason.
Argumental analysis and critical thinking

As we have already mentioned, our mind identifies patterns from the stimuli it receives from
the environment and makes sense of them based on past experiences stored in our memory.
The emotional label assigned to memories determines our response to the stimulus. This
"modus operandi" influences the objectivity with which we approach certain topics.
Argument analysis helps to identify the elements of the argument and represent how
they are related in order to be able to assess the strength with which the reason(s)
support the conclusion. The objectivity of the analysis will help us to make an objective
assessment that would be difficult to make otherwise.

Understanding the components of an argument and how they relate to each other will
improve our ability to think critically not only because it will help us to identify the reasons
behind the conclusion but also the relationship between the different elements.
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EXERCISE:
Select a relevant article that you have recently read in the press related to what you are
studying in the Master or your field of interest and make a plot map as explained in these
chapters.
Molly Crockett: Beware neuro-bunk
https://www.ted.com/talks/molly_crockett_beware_neuro_bunk
TED Talk in which neuroscientist Molly Crockett reflects on the relationship between
marketing and science.
From: Crockett, M. 2021. “Beware neuro-bunk”. TEDSalon London Fall 2012
Tips
The purpose of argument analysis is to understand the components of an argument and
their relationship.
Although identifying the parts of an argument is not an easy task, we can look for clues in
the form of links that serve to introduce each of the parts.
Valuing all points of view helps to enrich the analysis when making a decision. However, our
view of the issue may prevent us from objectively assessing all the available
information, thus undermining our decision-making process.
Tools
VIDEO:
• Crockett, M. 2021. “Beaware neuro-bunk”. TED Salon London Fall 2012.
Summary
Arguments aim to convince us that the reality they propose is better than the current one,
thereby inviting a change in behaviour or paradigm.
Understanding the components of an argument and their relationship will allow us to

assess more objectively the argument and thus the soundness of the proposed
conclusion.
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CHAPTER 3– ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF AN

ARGUMENT
Introduction
Not all arguments are equally valid for defending an idea.
Think about how our position on an issue can be strengthened when we listen to people who
defend the same idea or challenged when we listen to people who defend the opposite. In
both cases, not all reasons are equally strong. We may even encounter reasons that are
poorly related or connected to the conclusion or assertion being presented. For this reason
it is important to assess the strength of an argument.
Is the following argument valid?
If we throw a die, the number 1 may or may not come up. Therefore, the die has a 50%
probability of rolling the number 1.
This is an invalid argument. As a die has 6 sides, the probability of rolling 1 is 1/6. In this
case, although the statement is true (if we throw a die, it may come out 1 or it may not come
out), the conclusion is false (there is a 50% probability that the number 1 will come out
Acceptance and consistency of the reasons or premises
Halpern6 (2013) assesses the arguments according to three criteria:
Reasons answer to the why for the conclusion and must be accepted. A reason is accepted
when it is true or there is certainty that it can be true. Many of the things we believe come
from statements made by experts, from truths recognised by science, or from knowledge
shared by the majority of people.
Example 1: The Community of Andalusia occupies more area than the Community of
Murcia.
I have never measured them, but surely you can find commonly accepted data and
testimonies of expert people who test it.
Acceptability is not whether a proposal is acceptable on the basis of whether or not
the reasons are acceptable, but determining the degree of acceptability, i.e. how
acceptable the reasons for an argument are, a task that may require some research
effort on our part.
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Example 2: Imagine hearing that the city council is considering tightening speed controls in
the cities so that they do not exceed 30km/h on single-lane roads. The council argues that it
will improve safety, reduce environmental noise and improve citizens' mobility, a very
favourable measure.
One way to decide if we should accept these reasons is to spend some time assessing the
supposed social benefits of the measure, what has happened in cities that have already
adopted the measure, what experts in the area think etc.
The reasons for an argument must be consistent with each other to avoid
contradictions. Eliminating inconsistencies between reasons will help to assess the
strength of arguments more clearly.
Example 3: Imagine an argument where one reason argues that to overcome a pandemic,
vaccine patents should be liberalised and another reason argues that to overcome a
pandemic, intellectual property rights should be protected.
If possible, it is advisable in such cases to eliminate the weaker or incorrect reason.
Once the consistency and acceptability of the reasons have been assessed, the credibility of
those who defend the reasons can be assessed. Shumman and Champagne7 (1998)
consider that the factors that a jury must take into account when assessing the credibility of
an expert are: qualification, ability to reason, familiarity with the case and impartiality.
Example 4: Imagine the following advertisement:

A. Which dentists recommend it? How was the sample selected? Are they independent
dentists or do they have a relationship with the brand? Is chewing gum good? What research
process has been carried out to verify the veracity of the statement?
B. Is the statement credible?
As we can see from the example above, the acceptability of reasons depends on the
value placed on the source of information.
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For Carlson (1995) sources can be distinguished depending on whether the topic is related
to reality or to values:
• When the topic refers to reality, e.g. does the quality of life of people living in
cities with a 30 km/h speed limit improve, experts can provide evidence such as
noise levels in cities, changes in the number of serious pedestrian accidents, etc.
to support the conclusion.
• When the issue concerns values, the role of experts is more complex. For
example, should abortion be made illegal? A medical expert explains the impact
of abortion on a woman's body, but who can be considered as a person of
authority when it comes to promoting the illegalisation or legalisation of abortion?
Is the opinion of people in the medical field, sociology or ordinary people equally
valid?
6Halpern, D. F. (2013). Thought and knowledge: An introduction to critical thinking. Psychology Press.
7 Shuman, D. W., & Champagne, A. (1998). Removing the people from the legal process:
The rhetoric and research on judicial selection and juries. Psychology, Public Policy, & Law, 3(2-3),
242-258.
Reasons supporting the conclusion

Example 1:
Let us imagine the following example: "It is important to support the coalition government
because rainfall in Scandinavian countries is getting scarcer and scarcer".
In this case the reason (answers the question why we should support the coalition
government) is not related to the conclusion (it is important to support the coalition
government), so we can say that, in this case, the reason does not support the conclusion.
Example 2:
Let us now imagine the following example: "we should strictly control our diet because
professional athletes keep a strict control of their diet".
In this case, although the reason (professional athletes keep a strict control of their diet) and
the conclusion (we should strictly watch our diet) are related to the diet, the reason does not
justify the conclusion. Even if it is true that professional athletes keep a strict control of their
diet, it does not justify that everyone else should. Ordinary people may be able to maintain a
balanced diet. The reasons must not only be related to the conclusion but must also support
it for us to believe it to be true or possibly true.
Let’s imagine the following argument

Carlos and Marta have applied for a mortgage therefore, they are going to buy a house.
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The first step in determining the strength of an argument is to separate the different
sentences that make it up. In our case:
• (Carlos and Marta have applied for a mortgage) (1), therefore, (they are going to
buy a house) (2).
• In this argument, sentence (1) is the reason, and (2) is the conclusion.
The second step is to represent graphically the sentences and the relationship between
them:
Let us now imagine the following case

Carlos and Marta are planning a trip to Europe; therefore, they are going to buy a house.
In this case, the relationship between the sentences of the argument:
• (Carlos and Marta are planning a trip in Europe) (1), therefore, (they are going to
buy a house) (2).
In this case, the reason (Carlos and Marta are planning a trip to Europe), does not support
the conclusion (they are going to buy a house). Reason and conclusion are not related. We
have no reason to believe that they are going to buy a house.
Now suppose the following case

((Carlos and Marta are looking at real estate web sites) (1) therefore, (they are going to buy
a house) (2).
The graphical representation in this case:
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In this case, although reason and conclusion are related, the support of reason to validate
the conclusion is weak (it is not certain that everybody who looks at real estate web sites will
buy a house).
Finally, now suppose the following case

Carlos and Marta are looking at real estate portals (1), in fact, they have been looking at
houses for some time (2). They have visited several times a home they like very much (3).
They have a meeting with the bank to look at financing options (4). Therefore, Carlos and
Marta are going to buy a house (5).
Let's evaluate each of the sentences:
(5) Carlos and Marta are going to buy a house. 🡪 is the conclusion
(1) Carlos and Marta are looking at real estate web sites. 🡪 weak reason
(2) They have been looking at houses for some time 🡪 weak reason
(3) They have visited a house several times that they like very much. 🡪 moderate reason
(4) They have a meeting with the bank to look at financing options. 🡪 strong reason
The graphical representation:
In this case, the reasons contribute to complement each other and support the conclusion.
This is a convergent argument structure where several reasons point to the same
conclusion. In this case, the reasons, even weak ones, contribute to the strength of the
conclusion.
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The hidden parts of the argument: What has not been taken into account that
could change the argument?
When analysing an argument, in addition to identifying its parts and analysing their
complementarity and validity, we have to identify the implicit elements in order to correctly
assess the strength of an argument.
Let us analyse the following extract from the article published in the The
Economist (visit the article )
This year started horribly for China. When a respiratory virus spread in Wuhan, Communist
Party officials’ instinct was to hush it up. Some predicted that this might be China’s
“Chernobyl”—a reference to how the Kremlin’s lies over a nuclear accident hastened the
collapse of the Soviet Union. They were wrong (1). After its initial bungling, China’s ruling
party swiftly imposed a quarantine of breathtaking scope and severity. The lockdown seems
to have worked (2). The number of newly reported cases of covid-19 has slowed to a trickle
(3). Factories in China are reopening (4). Researchers there are rushing candidate vaccines
into trials (5) (see Briefing). Meanwhile, the official death toll has been far exceeded by
Britain, France, Spain, Italy and America.
(1) This is the conclusion. China has proved the success and strength of its social system.
(2) A reason that connects the success of one of the measures adopted by the Chines
government with proving the success of the communist system.
(3) An evidence that supports the previous reason.
(4) A reason that also strengthens the claim that the communist system is very effective,
since the economy is reopening.
(5) A reason describing that one they have solved the short-term problem they can work on
a long term one.
To evaluate the argument we have to think of ways in which sentences may have been
distorted, information may have been omitted. The best way to do this is to become an
advocate for the other side. In this case, to analyse the situation from the perspective of
a person who does not agree with the conclusion.
The author uses the Chernobyl case to create a context for the case, highlighting the different
results got by two similar systems. In this sense , we can wonder to what extent is fair to
compare a finished case like Chernobyl with an unfinished one like the COVID-19. The author
is assuming that China has successfully won the case, that they have successfully overcame
the crisis. The author is also considering that the information provided by the Chinese
government is accurate and real. The author also considers that the information provided by
all the countries all sources are equally trustworthy and reliable. He is also assuming that all
countries are using the same criteria to calculate the death rate. On the other hand, the
author is not taking into consideration the different the timing of the events, since, in the
moment of comparison, the countries were at a different stage in crisis.
22

Argument map
Assessing the strength of an argument is a time-consuming exercise. Although unfortunately
people do not have the habit or the time, making an argument map is a powerful tool for
understanding complex arguments.
According to Halpern (2013) the steps to analyse an argument are 9 :
01. Read or listen very carefully to the content in order to identify the conclusion and the
reasons used to support it. If the content does not contain at least a conclusion, it is not an
argument. In the latter case, the analysis ends at this point.
02. Identify the implicit and explicit components of the argument: conclusion, reasons,
evidence, assumptions, counterarguments etc.
03. Assess the consistency and validity of the reasons. If the reasons are not valid, we
stop the analysis at this point because the argument is not sound. In the case that only some
reasons are not acceptable, we must eliminate them and continue the analysis with the
premises that are acceptable. In the case where the reasons are inconsistent with each other,
we must decide which reasons we are left with. We cannot forget that an argument is not
sound if the reasons are not acceptable or if they contradict each other.
04. Make an argument diagram to help us assess how each reason supports the
conclusion. We can evaluate the conclusion as weak, medium, strong or very strong.
05. Assess the strength of counterarguments, assumptions, implicit reasons... Do they
weaken or reinforce the support given by the reasons?
06. Determine the soundness of the argument. For this assessment we can also use a
scale (very strong, strong, weak...)
9 Halpern, D. F. (2013). Thought and knowledge: An introduction to critical thinking. Psychology

Press.

For Halpern (2013) 10 , in a good argument:
01. The reasons are acceptable and consistent.
02. The reasons are relevant for demonstrating the conclusion, providing sufficient support
for this.
03. The implicit aspects of the argument are considered, assessing its consistency with
the conclusion.
23
Assessing these characteristics is not a matter of yes or no, but of degree (strongly
agree, strongly disagree).
VIDEO
Daniel H. Cohen (2013) “For argument´s shake”. TED-Ed.
What makes us argue? To make an idea known, to demonstrate that the alternatives
presented are incorrect, in short, to win. In this video, philosopher Daniel H. Cohen shows
how the most common form of argumentation prevents us from getting the most out of the
process.
10Halpern, D. F. (2013). Thought and knowledge: An introduction to critical thinking. Psychology

Press.
Tips
The smartest way to understand an argument is to first identify the claim or conclusion,
the reasons and the evidence and then draw a picture of how each part relates to the other.
The plot map will help assess the strengths and weaknesses of an argument.
Not all arguments are equally valid. Some reasons are better than others to support a
particular statement or conclusion.
Analysing an argument means determining how acceptable the reasons used to support
the assertion or conclusion are.
Tools
• Daniel H. Cohen (2013) “For argument´s shake”. TED-Ed.
• Weston, A. (2018). A rulebook for arguments. Hackett Publishing.
Summary
An argument is reasonable when it meets the following criteria:
01. The reasons are acceptable and consistent.
02. The reasons are relevant to the conclusion and provide sufficient support.
03. The information underlying the argument has been taken into account and
is consistent with the assertion.
24
CHAPTER 4– BARRIERS TO CRITICAL THINKING

Introduction
As we saw in chapter 1, the mind identifies patterns to make sense of incoming stimuli,
responding on the basis of emotional labels associated with thoughts and experiences
stored in memory. These two processes, automatic and unconscious in most cases, help to
manage the decision-making process smoothly and efficiently.
Why is it that decisions are not always right?
The automation of decision-making can lead us to be unaware of the cognitive errors
associated with the process of identifying patterns and deciding on a response based on the
emotional labels stored in memory.
Critical thinking
Critical thinking contributes to developing, among other things, open-mindedness
and independence, making people more aware of the internal and external factors
that influence decision-making.
According to Judith A. Boss (2009)11 three levels can be distinguished in the process
of critical thinking: experience, interpret and analyse:
This is a dynamic and iterative model, where once an experience is interpreted, it is

analysed to give the best possible response. The experience resulting from the
25
response is re-interpreted and the process is started again, thus contributing

to create the patterns and assign emotional labels discussed in chapter 1.
Experience is the first level: it provides first-hand information through direct

experience or information we receive from other sources. The purpose of this stage
is to collect information, limiting ourselves only to describing experiences.
Example:
-My work ratings have been low.
-Raised the angry voice.
-Did not arrive in time to deliver the work.
-Intellectual property is a right.
It is therefore the raw material for decision making that feeds into the higher
levels: interpreting and analysing.
Analyse is the third level: requires raising our level of thinking, critically appraising
the interpretations given to experiences. Identifying assumptions and biases and
objectively assessing their validity will contribute to making better decisions.
Questioning is a fundamental tool at this stage.
Example:
Some questions we can ask ourselves in order to analyse the above interpretations:
-Was it the teacher's strictness, my poor organisation, lack of interest or lack
of knowledge of what was expected that led me to fail the assignment?
-What led Marta to react in this way?
-What is the reason for her lack of interest and passivity?
-Why is intellectual property protected, and are there situations that justify not
enforcing this right?
Once the analysis is done, a decision, a response, is made, reconnecting with

reality, and the process begins.
11 Think:Critical Thinking and Logic Skills for Everyday Life by Judith A. Boss. McGraw-Hill Humanities
Social,2009
26
What can get in the way of this process by creating a barrier to critical thinking?
VIDEO
Galef, J. 2016 . “Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong”. TED xPSU 2016.
REFLECTS
a. What do you wish for most, standing up for your own beliefs or seeing the world as
clearly as possible?
b. What do you need to have an explorer's mindset?
Psychologist Gary Klein argues that the brain is agile in coming to conclusions and reluctant
to consider alternatives. The discomfort of realising that one is wrong leads to the
development of defence mechanisms that erect barriers to questioning one's view of the
world. This resistance interferes with self-development, putting people in a defensive mode
and preventing the entry of ideas that challenge one's view of the world. This protective
mechanism influences the mind's interpretation of the patterns it observes in the
environment. A. Cambell, J. Whitehead and S. Finkelstein identify 3 factors that can lead
to distorting emotional labels or seeing wrong patterns:
01. The interest or opinion you have on a topic skews how you value the information
available, giving more credit to the one that highlights the patterns you want to see, that is,
see the information as you want to see.
Example:
After a lot of hard research, you get some data that, unfortunately, indicates that the
marketing department is doing a dismal job. No growth, negative ROI, poor quality of leads.
You think they need to know. You decide to go to the head of the department and say "if you
keep doing things the way you're doing, you're going to sink the company".
What response do you get?
• The department head reacts defensively. He questions all the information,
arguing that the information is wrong, and the analysis is flawed, and that if the
report is followed, it will lead to the company's ruin.
• The head of department seeks information that confirms his vision of the
department, questioning and rejecting any information that contradicts it and
relying on information that justifies the vision he has about the wat the department
is working.
REFLECTS
a. What impact does this situation have on the organization?
b. Is it possible to avoid the effect of these biases? If so, how can they be avoided?
c. Describe a personal case in which you have experienced this type of bias and how
it has influenced the decision-making process.
27
02. Links to people, things, projects or places can affect how the situation is assessed
and what decision is made.
Example :
The CEO of a major company is considering selling one of its divisions. One of the options
the CEO has on the table is the first division she ran when she joined the company and which
served as a springboard in her professional career.
REFLECTS
01. How do you think this situation can affect the CEO?
02. How can you overcome these kinds of links?
03. Describe a personal example where you have experienced this type of link and
its influence on the decision-making process.
03. The presence of misleading memories that, while appearing relevant and comparable
to the situation being assessed, may lead to overvaluing or minimising information relevant
to the case and, therefore, to making a bad decision. This situation may be accentuated by
the emotional "labels" assigned to the experiences.
Example:
The marketing department is planning the communication strategy for the launch of a new
product line. In the minds of the attendees is the success of the last release. Memories of
past success can lead the team to ignore or overestimate information relevant to the case.
REFLECTS
01. What effect do past experiences have on decision-making?
02. What can the marketing team do to be aware of what is happening?
03. Describe a personal example where you have experienced such memories and
their influence on the decision-ma king process
12 Why Good leaders make bad decisions. A. Cambell, j. Whitehead y S. Finkelstein. HBR
Biases
Another element that can get in the way of our ability to think critically are biases, mental
shortcuts that contribute to improving efficiency in decision-making.
The brain works "automatically" based on its experience, sing the resources at hand to give
quick responses to everyday events.
Can you imagine continually rethinking every decision you make on a daily basis?
Unfortunately, these mental shortcuts, necessary and fundamental to manage day-to-day
life, are not infallible, sometimes leading us down the wrong paths. You need to be aware of
the most common cognitive biases in order to manage them when making a decision.
28
a. Confirmation bias occurs when we overvalue information that supports our view of things
and minimise, question or reject information that challenges it. This instinctive overvaluation
of information that coincides with our ideas, thinking, assumptions, beliefs and
undervaluation of information that questions them acts as a filter that influences the way we
perceive reality and our decision-making process.
Example:
Maria is an analyst at an investment bank. Last week she attended a conference on market
trends where some data was mentioned that pointed to a decline in the growth rate, falling
sales, liquidity strains and cost cutting by large companies. This information has created a
view that a recession could be on the cards again next year. It produces reports that it sends
to its clients recommending caution against the risk of recession, recommending investing in
bonds and avoiding buying shares for the time being.
A few months later, the World Bank publishes a new report indicating that the new trade
agreement between China and the US to reduce tariffs will stimulate globalisation.
One of Maria's clients emails her asking if she has reviewed the report. Maria replies that the
agreement does not change her forecast and that there have been no developments in the
markets, and that, in fact, the markets were falling further according to her most recent
research.
REFLECTS
• What kind of bias is influencing Maria? What impact does it have on her work?
• What could Maria do to avoid bias?
• How does this bias influence the spread of fake news and the rise of
conspiracies?
• How do brands use confirmation bias to achieve their goals?
b. The availability bias is a mental shortcut that allows decisions to be made quickly on the
basis of information that is more easily remembered. When making a decision, situations or
events related to the topic come to mind that, being the first ones, are considered more
frequent and probable than others. This overestimates the probability that something similar
will happen in the future. If one can easily recall several examples of something that has
happened, e.g. breaches of the state of alarm, one will believe that this is the most common.
Russell Eisenman (1993)13 studied the influence of the media on audience perceptions of
certain issues. He asked university students whether they believed that drug use in the USA
was increasing or decreasing. Most responded that it was increasing despite data published
by the National Household Survey on Drugs that said otherwise. TyleR and Cook
(1984) 14 concluded in their study that media coverage of certain topics such as drug use
could distort the audience's perception of the frequency with which such events occurred in
real life.
Example:
After hearing news of layoffs and downsizing, you may start to believe that your job is in
jeopardy. Tension, anxiety and sleepless nights are increased by the growing concern of
losing one's job.
29
REFLECTS
How can shark attacks on swimmers save lives?
• Solution: Data on ocean deaths off the San Diego coast shows that for every bather
killed by a shark attack, an average of 10 lives are saved.
What is the reason for this?
• Solution: Each time a bather dies from a shark attack, the number of drowning deaths
declines for several years until it returns to normal levels. This is because we
remember news of shark attacks more easily than news of drowning deaths.
Think about your answer well before moving on.

¿What are the 3 jobs with the highest mortality rate in Spain?15
13 Eisenman, Russell. “Belief that drug usage in the United States is increasing when it is really
decreasing: An example of the availability heuristic.” Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 31, no. 4
(1993), 249-252. doi:10.3758/bf03334920.
Tom R., and Fay L. Cook. “The mass media and judgments of risk: Distinguishing impact on
14Tyler,
personal and societal level judgments.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47, no. 4 (1984),
693-708. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.47.4.693.
la competencia más importante según el último informe “ The Jobs of the future” del foro
15 Es
Económico y Mundial (WEF, 2019).
Bias
Reflective questions
• ¿Do your answers match the ones on the chart?
• What might lead few people to think of farming as a risky profession?
30
Factors influencing availability bias:

• The media: media coverage influences our perception of reality by distorting the
frequency of events through media coverage. Thus, hearing more often about traffic
accidents or construction accidents makes you mistakenly think that they are more likely
to happen than agricultural accidents.
• Last in, first out: an event that happened recently is more likely to come to mind than
one that happened a long time ago. If the above question had been asked after the
explosion of grisu that took the lives of 14 miners from the Nicolasa Well in August 1995,
the mining profession would have appeared among the 3 selected.
• Personal experiences: the memory is very much connected to the experience. If we
don’t have a close experience of an agricultural accident, it will be more difficult for us to
associate that profession with a high mortality rate.
REFLECTS
Identify an availability bias item (news, announcements, etc.) and assesses its impact
on decision-making.
c. Anchoring bias reflects the human tendency to rely on the first available information on
a topic. When making a decision or an estimate, new information is often evaluated based
on the information available as a reference rather than objectively.
A Harvard University 16 study shows how anchoring bias influences a negotiation because of
the tendency to wait for the other party to make the first proposal. The study reveals that, in
highly ambiguous and uncertain situations, the anchoring effect of the first offer is very large,
setting the margins on which the negotiation takes place. Thus, a high first offer tends to lead
to high sale prices and vice versa..
Example 1:
Let's imagine we want to sell a motorbike for €6,000. An interested person comes to see it
and likes it. He is willing to pay €4,000. At the moment the negotiation starts, we say that we
want to sell it for €8,000. This price is the anchor price.
When the potential buyer hears the price of €8,000 he thinks it is too high. At that moment
he has the anchor that the value of the bike is €8,000.
We comment that, as we see that he is very excited about the bike, we are willing to make a
significant discount, and that we could reduce it to €5,500 if he takes it now. The buyer may
think that this is a good deal. That it's a bit out of his budget, but that it's a good deal.
At the moment the customer anchors the price, any deal below €8,000 is interesting.
31
Example 2:
REFLECTS
• Is there an anchor effect in the previous photo? If yes, do you think it influences
the purchase decision? Justify your answer
• Identify and describe an anchor bias you’ve identified in your day-to-day life.
d. Overconfidence bias is caused by believing that we are better than we really are due to
a tendency to overestimate our skills, talent or intelligence.
Example:
James Montier 17 found, after asking 300 investment banking professionals whether they
thought their ability to perform their job was above average, that 74% thought it was and 26%
thought it was average. None of the 300 respondents considered their skills to be below
average.
REFLECTS
• Are these results statistically possible?
• What are the consequences of overconfidence bias?
Solution:
The result of overconfidence can lead to planning errors. When was the last time we
completed a project ahead of schedule, or managed to run under budget? Late deliveries,
under-budgets or missed deadlines are all planning errors that result from overconfidence.
The curious thing is that "optimistic" estimates continue to be made in the hope that the future
will not be like the present.
Another consequence of overconfidence is the illusion of control, i.e. the false sense that
we are rational people who make decisions based on logic. How many of you wear your lucky
garment when your team is going to play the grand final thinking that wearing it will increase
your team's chances of winning? This false sense that we have more control over something
than we really do can lead us to adopt simpler strategies, to rely on hopes, superstitions or
32
magical thinking, rather than thinking carefully and assessing the potential setbacks that may
arise.
16 Galinsky, A. (2004) When to Make the First Offer in Negotiations (Enlaces a un sitio externo.)
17 Montier, J. (2006) Behaving Badly

People
People, as rational beings, think that our belief system, our thoughts and the reasons that
lead us to act in a certain way are correct, otherwise we would change them. The reality is
that, in most cases, we think automatically in order to gain efficiency. What impact does this
have on the decision-making process? Is it possible to balance efficiency and accuracy in
the decision-making process?
Dunning Kruger effect

When it comes to assessing a particular skill, some people are always more skilled than
others, but are the latter able to recognise it? The Dunning Krugger effect describes the
difficulty of people with lesser abilities to recognise their limitations, thinking that they are
doing well despite making one mistake after another.
https://youtu.be/pOLmD_WVY-E
REFLECTS
If according to the Dunning Kruger effect the most ignorant people in the lowest 25% of an
ability are the most self-confident, does that mean that the least knowledgeable people are
the most self-confident?
• Does that mean that the least informed people are the most self-confident?
• Are we talking about a lack of information or an excess of misinformation? What is
the impact of each?
• What impact does this have on personal, organisational and social development?
False Memories
Memory works by reconstructing facts, not reproducing them (Loftus 1991) 18. A memory
contains fragments of the initial experience together with "other elements", not experienced
at the time, added later, which makes it difficult to distinguish which part of the memory is
true and which is not. This circumstance can lead to identifying memories as relevant to a
33
fact when they are not, overstating or minimizing certain factors relevant to decision-making.
This fact can be amplified by the emotional labels given to certain past experiences.
Psychologist E. Loftus studies how memory failures make us remember things differently
from how they actually happened. In the following video E. Loftus shares some examples to
illustrate this fact and to make us think about how memory works and how reliable it is.
https://youtu.be/PB2OegI6wvI
REFLECTS
01. How does the semantics of a question influence the answer you get?
02. If our memory tends to eliminate the details of an experience and retain an understanding
of its essence for longer (after an event we may not remember what we talked about, who
we saw, what we ate, but how we enjoyed it or not), how reliable is memory in decision-
making?
03. What can we do to avoid the effect of false memories?
18 Loftus, E. F. (1991). Made in memory: Distortions in recollection after misleading

information. Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 27(C), 187–215.

When thinking critically, it is important to be aware of the barriers that prevent us from doing
so. Biases, mental shortcuts that contribute to making the decision-making process more
efficient, can lead us to make mistakes. Awareness of these biases helps to improve the
decision-making process.
01. The personality and characteristics of our behaviour influence the decision-
making process.
02. Biases distort the ability to make objective judgments.
03. The most common cognitive biases are confirmation, availability, anchoring, and
overconfidence.
Have you ever thought that we are not the best at assessing ourselves?
In fact, research shows that we often overestimate ourselves in our skills and competences
In this video Marshall (2018) explains how confirmation bias, the Dunning-Kruger effect and
cognitive dissonance influence what we think we know.
VIDEO
Marshall, J. (2018) “3 kinds of bias that shape your world view” TED-Ed.
34
Tips
The brain is quick to reach conclusions and reluctant to consider alternatives. It is
uncomfortable to realise that it is wrong.
Mental shortcuts or biases automate the decision-making process. These
mental shortcuts, correct on most occasions, can also be misleading.
Awareness of cognitive biases and their impact on decision-making improves our
ability to think critically.
Tools
• Cambell, j. Whitehead y S. Finkelstein. Why Good leaders make bad
decisions. HBR.
• Ozdemir, S., Finkelstein, E.A., 2018. Cognitive Bias: The Downside of Shared
Decision Making. JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics 1–10.. doi:10.1200/cci.18.00011
Summary
People do NOT always act rationally.
Information overload, pressures, or urgencies can push individuals to make quick decisions.
This situation leads to reliance on mental shortcuts.
Knowing and being aware of these mental shortcuts or biases can help to make
decisions in a more rational way.
35
CHAPTER 5– DECISION-MAKING
Introduction
We associate leadership with motivating teams and defining strategies among other things.
But what is most characteristic of this figure is decision-making. Good decisions make it rise
and bad decisions bring it down. What steps can be taken to make better decisions?
For Gavin and Roberto (2003), considering decision making as an event rather than a
process is the main reason why better decisions are not made.
REFLECT EXERCISE
Maria has to decide whether to remove or keep a product in line because of its low rotation.
What would you do to make the best decision?
Solution
According to Garvin y Roberto (2003)19 Spending time reflecting on the case in the solitude
of the office, asking questions to obtain more information, consulting reports and statistics on
the product's behaviour, continuing to reflect in solitude to decide whether to keep or
withdraw the product from the shelves, implies considering decision-making as an event, a
habit that can lead to not considering factors that could be decisive in making a better
decision. On the other hand, considering decision making as a process implies
understanding that the need for a decision has been building for weeks, months or even
years, in which political and other important actors have a say, influenced by personal
nuances and the history of the company. It is fraught with debate and discussion and requires
support at all levels of the organisation when the time comes for implementation.
19Garvin,D. A., & Roberto, M. A. (2003). What you don't know about making decisions. IEEE
Engineering Management Revie w, 31(2), 3-10.
The quality of decision-making
The quality of decision-making is closely related to personal and professional success.
According to Garvin and Roberto (2003) 20 the main reason why the best decisions are
not made is because more attention is paid to defending a point of view than to
investigating the case.
According to the authors, passionately defending a point of view prevents good decisions
from being made because alternative points of view are not considered. This passion in
defending a point of view leads to disregarding the strengths of other points of view and
minimising the weaknesses of one's own point of view.
36
REFLECT QUESTION
What are the consequences of passionately defending a point of view?
Solution:
Passionately defending an idea often leads to an extreme exchange of views,
discouraging creative thinking and rejecting the most valuable aspects of other points of
view. The process often ends with adopting the dominant view to end the conflict.
Understanding decision-making as a research process involves listening carefully and
openly to alternatives and working together to find the best solution. Although each side
has its own point of view, the aim is not to convince but to reach a consensus on the best
possible action. Rather than focusing on eliminating disagreement, the focus is on
stimulating creative thinking.
REFLECT QUESTION
What challenges does research incorporate into the decision-making process?
Solution:
Research requires promoting constructive conflict and managing ambiguity. People
involved in the process must feel comfortable proposing alternatives and questioning the
proposals presented and the assumptions on which they are based. Diversity and
divergence are managed during the initial phase of the process, and unity and
collaborative work are promoted during the implementation phase.
The two approaches in the decision-making process :
20
Garvin, D. A., & Roberto, M. A. (2003). What you don't know about making decisions. IEEE
Engineering Management Review, 31(2), 3-10.
37

Constructive conflict
Making the most of research in decision-making requires controlling the 3 Cs of decision-
making: Constructive conflict, consideration and closure.
Two types of conflict can occur in the decision-making process:
01. Cognitive conflict: related to the content of the proposal. It implies disagreement
of ideas, assumptions and ways of acting.
Example: The management of a company has to decide on the strategy to follow with a loss-
making investment. The sales department proposes to invest in an aggressive advertising
campaign to reduce stock and to invest in state-of-the-art assortment to change the
company's image in the country. The financial department proposes to exit the country in
search of a buyer. Losses are mounting and past efforts to reverse the situation have never
worked.
In this example of cognitive conflict, the different views of each of the departments trigger a
debate to analyse the different approaches and decide how to manage resources.
02. Affective or emotional conflict: related to the interpersonal relationship

Example: the debate between the parties becomes more and more extreme. Mentions of
past mistakes, differences of opinion on other projects and personal grudges start to enter
the picture. Cognitive conflict becomes affective, leading to frustration, anger and hatred.
It is easy to identify whether the conflict is primarily based in one of these two directions.
What differentiates the two types of conflict is the amount of energy that the people involved
put into personal differences or differences in content.
REFLECT QUESTION
What role do these conflicts play in the decision-making process?
Solution:
The decision-making process is enriched by cognitive conflict. Openly exposing differences
and questioning assumptions helps to show the weaknesses of each of the proposals and to
open the door to new ideas and options.
The decision-making process is hindered by affective conflict. Frictions, personal differences,
and/or rivalries hinder collaboration and make the decision-making process less effective.
The aim is to promote cognitive conflict and reduce affective conflict. The challenge: the close
relationship between the two. Interpreting criticism of an idea as personal, leads to a
defensive response. This behaviour, instinctive in humans, can cloud the working
environment and affect collaboration between the parties during implementation.
38
Example:
Each department's different approach to solving the company's challenge should lead to a
robust, task-focused discussion that contributes to creative solutions. Unfortunately, instead
of working constructively to reach the best possible solution in terms of cost-effectiveness for
the company, the conflict ended up on a personal level with a win-lose approach. The conflict
not only prevented the company from benefiting from both positions - it had to opt for one of
them - but it also deteriorated inter-departmental relations with negative implications for the
execution of this and future strategies.
REFLECT QUESTION
What can be done to manage conflicts associated with the decision-making process?
Solution:
• Promote debate to stimulate thinking by asking complex questions to the
proposals presented that require elaborate answers, or by organising people into
groups and assigning them roles, often in conflict, to prepare and present their
proposals and jointly analyse and evaluate the various options.
• Use language that avoids justification by incorporating phrases or questions
that remove the sense of guilt or failure. For example, "Very interesting what you
say about XXX, what challenges might we face in implementing it?" or "What you
have just said makes a lot of sense. If I play devil's advocate".
• Break up coalitions and traditional working groups by encouraging people
with different interests and loyalties to work together. For example, by creating
multidisciplinary groups made up of people from different departments.
• Promote the exchange of roles to enrich the particular perspective and

understand the interests and needs of other actors involved in the process. For
example, you may be asked to analyse a proposal from the point of view of the
customer, supplier, people from another department or the CEO of the company.
• Review key information by asking to review assumptions and present new
findings.
The success of a decision depends on the acceptance and support it receives from the team.
To achieve this, the team must see the decision as fair, even if its recommendations have
been rejected.
REFLECT QUESTION
What can be done to ensure that the team considers the decision to be fair?
Solution:
The key is to show consideration throughout the process. Making a decision implies that,
by discarding other alternatives, several people have to give up their preferred option.
39
While some people respond with opposition and rejection, others respond with
acceptance, however reluctantly.
Supporting or rejecting a decision depends on the perceived fairness of the decision-making

process. Feeling that one's opinion is taken into account and that one can influence the final
decision influences the perception of fairness. Kim and Mauborgne (2003) 21 assert that, with
greater perception of fairness, there is a greater likelihood of supporting the decision taken,
even if it does not coincide with the option initially proposed.
Exercise:
Luis, CEO of an important company, is leading a meeting with the management committee
to define the strategy the company should follow to introduce a new product line in the
market. As he wants to involve everyone on the committee, he asks each of them to give
their views on the best strategy to follow.
• How important is it that everyone on the committee accepts and supports the final
decision?
• How does Luis' effort influence the committee members' perception of fairness?
Solution:
Getting everyone on the committee to accept and support the final decision will help in the
implementation phase of the strategy. In analysing the effectiveness of Louis' behaviour,
a distinction must be made between listening to all voices and taking them into account.
People on the committee will feel that Luis takes them into account if they feel listened to
and if they feel that their input is considered before a decision is made. Conversely,
feelings of frustration and resentment will grow if they feel that their input is not taken into
account. Luis should demonstrate that he is open to new ideas and is willing to accept
different points of view from his own, and should avoid giving the impression that the
decision has already been made. In this sense, Luis should avoid comments related to
his strategic preferences or making it explicit that his opinion is provisional and therefore
subject to change.
40
REFLECT QUESTION
How can Louis show the committee that he is listening carefully?
Solution:
Luis can ask questions to probe the proposals, ask for more detailed and in-depth
explanations to better justify the options presented, paraphrase to highlight inputs and
comments and demonstrate that he is listening carefully, and maintain eye contact and
show patience when someone is making a point. Taking notes is another action that Luís
can take which, in addition to sending a strong signal that you are making an effort to
understand and identify key points to assess the proposal, helps to avoid memorising and
to demonstrate that you have been actively listening.
When communicating the final decision, it is important that Luís reports on the logic
followed in the decision-making process, detailing the criteria followed and highlighting
the contribution of each of the inputs to the final decision.
21 Kim,W. C., & Mauborgne, R. (2003). Fair process: Managing in the knowledge economy. Harvard
business review, 81(1), 127-136
Closure
Deciding at what point to end deliberation is not easy. Ending it too early may lead to hasty
conclusions, and too long may lead to a decision being made too late.
As we have already discussed, people's desire to feel part of the group (social conformity)
inhibits the ability to think critically and triggers the impulse to accept the first viable proposal,
leading the group to make a decision too quickly. This "groupthink" often occurs in new teams
where members are just getting to know each other and agreeing on the rules of conduct.
REFLECT QUESTION
• What are the consequences of group thinking in the decision-making process?
• What can Luis do to detect it?
REFLECT QUESTION
• What can lead the steering committee to overstretch the decision-making
process?
Solution:
Passionately defending an idea can lead to unnecessary delays in decision-making.
Clashing departments can become anchored in their proposals by reaffirming their
41
position over and over again. The result is arguments that revolve around the same point
over and over again.
At other times, the desire for fairness may lead to asking everyone involved in the process
for their opinion on the proposals presented. This exercise can lead to repetitive review
processes where very similar questions, objections and alternatives are raised..

A decision is the result of a process that is enriched the more open one is to listen
carefully and openly to other alternatives and working together to find the best solution.
Making the most of cognitive conflict and managing affective conflict correctly is key to
getting the most out of the decision-making process.
• What role does ego play in success and how can it influence future decisions?
• What is the value of quantifying thinking? Give an example from your day-to-
day life where you quantify thinking and assess its contribution to the decision-
making process.
• What value does intuition play in decision making?
https://youtu.be/nisSeC81u2M
Boeree, L. (2018) 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
Watch Liv Boeree's (2018) TED Talk "3 Lessons in Decision Making from a Poker Champion"
where Liv invites reflection on whether it's better to be lucky or good, whether to trust instinct
or to rely on probabilities and careful research when making a decision.
Tips
View decision making as a process where more attention should be paid to researching
than to defending a point of view.
Promoting cognitive conflict and reducing affective conflict.
Controlling the 3 Cs of decision-making: constructive conflict, consideration and closure.
Tools
• Sostrin J (2017) How to Act Quickly Without Sacrificing Critical Thinking.
• Dhar, J. (2021) How to have constructive conversations.
Julia explains the tendency to converse to win rather than to progress, and the
importance of curiosity and purpose in making the most of disagreements.
42
Summary
Understanding decision-making as a process rather than an isolated event is rare. It is rare
to find organisations with a systemic view of this process. Researching to arrive at the best
solution rather than striving to defend an idea with passion is a breakthrough in decision-
making.
The challenge is to identify the myriad opportunities, which, as with any process,
contribute to better decision-making.
Critical thinking involves:
43
BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Chandler. (2017). Strategic CSR. Stakeholder theory.
• Mark S. Schwartz, Kelley Schoolof business (2012). Developing and
sustaining an ethical corporate culture: The core elements.
• Porter (2011). Creating Shared Value.
• Simon Zadek. (2006). The Path to Corporate Responsibility.
44
Work done by Javier Pagán-Castaño
© 2022, ESIC.
Avd. Juan XXIII, 12. 28223 – Pozuelo de Alarcón (Madrid) – España / Spain.
www.esic.edu
No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means
whether electronic or mechanical.
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Critical

CHAPTER 1– WHAT IS CRITICAL THINKING

Think about your answer well before moving on.

We read the following headline in a newspaper: "Eliminating 100% of human CO2

Thinking about our thinking

Looking more deeply at the subject

Reflection on the subject

12 Angry Man (Lumet, S. 1957)

CHAPTER 2– ANALYSE ARGUMENTS

Some examples of statements that cannot be considered as arguments are:

Example 1 : let's analyze the following text.

Determining whether one or more statements are arguments is not always

Example 2 : consider the following slogan:

Looking more deeply at the subject

• States that ...

Once identified, we show graphically how they relate:

• Claim/conclusion: Product selection will be crucial to reducing the impact of

Relationship between the parties to the argument:

Argumental analysis and critical thinking

Reflection on the subject

Understanding the components of an argument and their relationship will allow us to

CHAPTER 3– ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF AN

Example 4: Imagine the following advertisement:

Reasons supporting the conclusion

Let’s imagine the following argument

Let us now imagine the following case

Now suppose the following case

Finally, now suppose the following case

Looking more deeply at the subject

9 Halpern, D. F. (2013). Thought and knowledge: An introduction to critical thinking. Psychology

Reflection on the subject

10Halpern, D. F. (2013). Thought and knowledge: An introduction to critical thinking. Psychology

CHAPTER 4– BARRIERS TO CRITICAL THINKING

This is a dynamic and iterative model, where once an experience is interpreted, it is

response is re-interpreted and the process is started again, thus contributing

Experience is the first level: it provides first-hand information through direct

Once the analysis is done, a decision, a response, is made, reconnecting with

Think about your answer well before moving on.

Económico y Mundial (WEF, 2019).

Factors influencing availability bias:

Looking more deeply at the subject

Dunning Kruger effect

18 Loftus, E. F. (1991). Made in memory: Distortions in recollection after misleading

Reflection on the subject

Looking more deeply at the subject

02. Affective or emotional conflict: related to the interpersonal relationship

• Promote the exchange of roles to enrich the particular perspective and

Supporting or rejecting a decision depends on the perceived fairness of the decision-making

Reflection on the subject

• Dhar, J. (2021) How to have constructive conversations.

Work done by Javier Pagán-Castaño

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