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Article history: The paper analyses selected problems with the estimation of environmental flows (EF) in the aspect of
Received 7 June 2019 hydroelectric potential of rivers. The study was conducted for mountain catchments located in the upper
Received in revised form Vistula catchment in Poland: Mszanka, Poroniec, Grajcarek, Ochotnica, and Kamienica Nawojowska. The
27 November 2019
data for calculations, in the form of observational series of daily flows in the years 1985-2014, were
Accepted 30 November 2019
obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of the National Research Institute in
Available online xxx
Warsaw. Based on the data, environmental flows were calculated as 25% Mean Annual Flow (MAF), 70%
Handling editor; Kathleen Aviso Median Flow, Q90, 7Q10, 7Q2, and additionally with the Eflows Management Framework and Upscaling
method (EMFU). The calculations made it possible to indicate the main problems related to the calcu-
Keywords: lation of environmental flows using hydrological methods: selection of the appropriate characteristic
Environmental flows flow, the method of determining guaranteed flows, selection of appropriate statistical distributions or
Hydrological methods sensitivity of environmental flows to the length of the observation series for which they are esteemed. In
Hydroelectric potential of rivers addition, the paper showed that the choice of method for calculating the environmental flow influences
the volume of electricity production in hydroelectric plants. For watercourses not covered by specific
forms of protection, the compromise between environmental protection and investment economics
seems to be calculating the EF value by 25% MAF or Q90. It was also found that it is optimal to maintain
the value of EF (from the point of view of caring caring for the aquatic environment) along with choosing
the economically justified options.
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
0959-6526/© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
2 ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn
of hydropower production mainly relate to the type and location of not take into consideration the actual requirements for protection
the plant. Reservoir hydropower plants usually have greater im- of the water environment.
pacts than run-of-the river type plants (Sokka et al., 2016). In case Studies on the estimation of hydropower potential of rivers
of derivative power plants, there is an obligation to maintain intact usually contain a numerical estimation of three values: theoretical,
flow in the main duct, which is idle water in this case. According to technical, and economic potential. In this study, the sensitivity of
the report (Benítez Sanz and Schmidt, 2012), in many parts of the hydrological methods for calculating environmental flows against
EU there are no requirements for the existing facilities to maintain the background of assumed flow characteristics is analysed. This
ecological flow. There are still several gaps and limitations in the made it possible to show the relationship between the values of
current process, in respect of power generation expansion plan- environmental flows and the energy potential of rivers. Previous
ning, and the environmental impact assessment (Andrade and studies related to analysis of environmental flows determined by
Santos, 2015). Production of electricity from hydropower leads to hydrological methods had focused mainly on considerations
several environmental impacts that, in only some instances, have related to values alone. However, no assessments were made as to
been analysed from an economic valuation approach. Moreover, as how these flows would shape the disposable resources for indi-
environmental impacts largely depend on the specific character- vidual water users, in particular for hydropower plants. In addition,
istics of the case study, benefit transfer techniques are inadequate the originality of the conducted research consists in presenting the
for valuation (Botelho et al., 2017). main problems regarding the estimation of EF flows using hydro-
The basic idea of environmental flow (EF) is to maintain the logical methods.
quantity, quality, and duration of the flow sufficient to ensure The following research hypotheses were put forward: 1) values
optimal habitat conditions for aquatic organisms. In practice, the of environmental flow are sensitive to discharge characteristics, 2)
design of a fish pass or the main duct (depending on the type of assumed flow characteristics are sensitive to the conditions under
power plant: weir or derivative, respectively) usually runs a volume which calculations are made, 3) selection of EF calculation method
of water corresponding to its size. Environmental flows are generates the estimated annual production of electricity from hy-
considered within the context of the EU Water Framework Direc- dropower power plant, 4) there is a risk of choosing the most
tive (WFD) as “a hydrological regime consistent with the achieve- economically, but environmentally risky method, 5) in case of weir
ment of the environmental objectives of the WFD in natural surface power plants, all-year EF values are preferred, 6) for derivative
water bodies as mentioned in Article 4(1)”. In other words, power plants, the seasonality of EF may make it possible to increase
ecological flow could be understood to mean such volume of water electricity production.
that can use up disposable resources in a given cross-section
without damaging water ecosystems and dependent waters. 2. Study area characteristic
In practice, many methods are used to determine such charac-
teristics, which can be grouped into four basic types: hydrological, The study was carried out on five catchments located in the
hydraulic, habitat, and environmental (Tharme, 2003). Hydrologi- upper Vistula catchment, an area located in the south-eastern part
cal methods are considered the simplest and easiest to use in of Poland. The selected area of the country is characterized by the
calculating EF. They account for about 30% of all the methods in use. largest water resources in Poland, a rich river network, as well as
Clearly, there is a natural increase in the interest in the practical good topographic conditions (including relatively high river heads),
application of more advanced methods based on, for example, which create optimal conditions for implementation of hydro-
modelling of aquatic ecosystems (Parasiewicz, 2007; Piniewski power plants. Hydropower power stations have historically been
et al., 2011). However, these methods require very detailed infor- located in this area, and a dozen or so new ones are being
mation on the riverbed characteristics and habitat conditions, and considered. On the other hand, rivers located in this area are
these are often difficult to identify. characterized by high ecological potential. The features and prop-
Yet, as Caissie et al. (2015) reported, currently there are no truly erties listed above constituted the main reasons for choosing this
scientifically defensible environmental flow assessment methods, catchment for the analysis. The study covered the following
since the methods used are based on common sense rather than on mountain catchments (river e cross-section): Mszanka-Mszana
scientific proof and validation. Consequently, the commonly used Dolna, Poroniec-Poronin, Grajcarek-Szczawnica, Ochotnica-
hydrological methods are as credible as any other methods, pro- Tylmanowa, and Kamienica Nawojowska-Nowy Sa˛ cz. The location
vided that they are applied correctly using the best available in- of the study catchments is presented in Fig. 1. Table 1 presents the
formation and good judgement. Hydrological methods are mainly values of the selected physiographic and meteorological charac-
applicable in planning of studies (Operacz et al., 2018). In the hy- teristics of the catchments: A - catchment area, L - length of the
drological methods, the value of EF depends on the given charac- watercourse to the cross-section, D e density of the river network,
teristic flow (Caissie et al., 2015). Hmean - average catchment height, Smean - average catchment slope,
Flow characteristics are relatively easy to determine provided N - soil impermeability index, P - ordinary annual rainfall.
the time series of daily average flows are available. The current
strong impact of human activities on surface water and ground- 3. Methodology
water leads to disruption of flows (especially low flows). Human
impact on water affects the natural hydrological regime of water- The study involved the following elements: statistical verifica-
courses. In reference to this, the question arises as to whether the tion of hydrological data, environmental flow calculation, calcula-
hydrological methods of assessment of environmental flow could tions of hydropower potential of rivers.
give rise to proper flows meeting the requirements of the habitats.
There is also the problem of accuracy in determining low flows 3.1. Statistical verification of hydrological data
from stage-discharge curve. Measurements of flow for low stage
can be affected by errors. In the low-state zone, the flow rate curve The average daily flows from observations at water gauge sta-
is often extrapolated due to lack of measurement data. This is tions covering the catchment areas of the above rivers constituted
another problem with practical use of hydrological methods. Thus, basis of hydrological analyses. The data were obtained from the
the potential values are overestimated or estimated at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of the National
maximum acceptable level, while the proposed energy use does Research Institute in Warsaw and covered the period 1985e2014.
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn 3
Table 1
Selected physiographic characteristics of the analysed catchments.
Statistical verification of the mean annual flow (MAF) was carried equation:
out using the Mann-Kendall test for the significance of the trend.
The null hypothesis, H0, of this is that there is no monotonic trend in SesgnðSÞ
the data series, while the alternative H1 stipulates that such a trend Z¼ (3)
exists. The calculations were made for the significance level
VarðSÞ1=2
a ¼ 0.05, in relation to median flows (Qmed). Mann-Kendall’s sta-
where:
tistics are based on the equation (Blain, 2015):
X
n1 X Var(S) e variance S, determined from the equation:
n
S¼ sgn xj exk (1)
k¼1 j¼kþ1 1
VarðSÞ ¼ ,ðn , ðne1Þ , ð2 , n þ 5ÞÞ (4)
18
where:
The main assumption of the MK test used is the lack of auto-
8
1 for xj exk > 0 correlation in a data series, which in turn leads to an underesti-
<
sgn xj xk ¼ 0 for xj exk ¼ 0 (2) mation of the variance Var(S). Therefore, an adjustment for variance
:
1 for xj exk < 0 correction is included, calculated only for data with significant
partial autocorrelation (Pingale et al., 2016):
where:
n
Var * ðSÞ ¼ VarðSÞ (5)
n e the number of elements of the time series. n*s
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
4 ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn 5
The conducted study was divided into two main parts: the hy-
drological analysis and the analysis connected with hydropotential
of rivers. The first part included verification of hydrological data,
environmental flow calculation using the hydrologic methods and
the sensitivity analysis for hydrology methods in respect of the
flows values. In the second part, ananalysis for impact of choosing
the environmental flow calculation method on the production of
electricity was conducted.
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
6 ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn
Table 2
Results of the trend significance analysis for MAF flows with the MK test.
Zc - standardized statistics of the MK test after adjustment for autocorrelation; pc - test probability after adjustment for autocorrelations; Var (S) c variance from the sample
after adjustment for autocorrelation; n/n* - effective number of observations; Z standardized statistics of the MMK test; Var(S) - variance from the sample.
observations n/n* is different from 1.000, hence it can be concluded environmental flows (Kuriqi et al., 2019). These factors can signif-
that for these time series there were some significant autocorre- icantly shape the differences between the EF values obtained
lations between particular variables. Lack of statistically significant through the methods used. After further analysis, it can be seen that
trends means that the analysed random variables come from the the highest values of EF flows come from the 70% Qmed method, the
same general population. Thus, in the analysed multi-year, there lowest from 7Q2. Only in case of the Poroniec river, the highest
was no factor significantly affecting the range of processes shaping value of EF flows was obtained with the 7Q10 method and the
the average flows. The obtained results can be linked to the results lowest as Q90 flow.
concerning the analysis of trends of factors, significantly affecting The next stage in the analysis of the values of environmental
the outflow of waters in the catchments of the upper Vistula flows was their interpretation as unit outflows (q). The values of
catchment. Research carried out by Nied zwied z et al. (2014) these characteristics have been presented in Fig. 4. Based on the
showed no significant trends regarding the indicators character- achieved results, it is possible to conclude that the most stable
izing daily rainfall variability. Analyses by Falarz (2002) confirmed course of unit outflows determined for environmental flows was
the lack of significant trends for period of snow cover in moun- obtained for the outflow calculated with reference to the flow of
tainous catchments. The supply of rivers in the Upper Vistula water 7Q2. For the analysed catchments, the difference between the
region is mainly from snow melting and rain waters, hence it is lowest and the highest value with this method is 68%. In turn, the
assumed the rhythm of the flow of effluents is repeated by mean highest differences for unit outflows determined in relation to EF
flows. However, taking into account future climate projections that flows were demonstrated for the 25% MAF flow. The difference
the future climate will significantly alter in streamflow conditions, between the lowest and the highest unit outflow for the studied
it will be important for migration and spawning of northern pike catchments with this method was 79%. Differences above 70% were
(Esox lucius), chub (Squalius cephalus), and Atlantic salmon (Salmo also demonstrated for the 70% Qmed and 7Q10 methods. However,
salar) in the Vistula and Odra catchments (Kundzewicz et al., 2018). for the 7Q2 method, the difference was 69%. The highest values of
unit outflows q were characteristic for the Kamienica Nawojowska
(where the unit outflow was calculated for MAF, Qmed and Q90) and
4.2. Environmental flow calculations Poroniec (where the unit outflow was calculated for the EF flow
determined by the statistical method) rivers. The lowest unit
Environmental flows for the analysed catchments and rivers outflow was obtained for the Ochotnica river, with each of the
were determined using the following hydrological methods: 25% analysed methods.
MAF, 70% Qmed, Q90, 7Q2 and 7Q10. The results are summarized in In the next stage of the research, an analysis was conducted of
Table 3. the relationship between the length in years for which hydrometric
Based on the results summarized in Table 3, it was found that observations were carried out and the determined values of envi-
the difference between the lowest and the highest EF were as fol- ronmental flows. The results of the analysis are presented in Fig. 5.
lows: for the Mszanka river, 58%; as for Poroniec river, this remai- Analysing the results illustrated in Fig. 5, it can be concluded
nedat 54%; Grajcarek, 49%; Kamienica Nawojowska, 55%; for that the length of many hydrometric observations affects the values
Ochotnica river, 47%. From the results, it can be concluded that the of environmental flows. This is confirmed by statistically significant
differences between EF determined by the analysed methods are values of correlation coefficients r, for most of the analysed
similar to each other, but at a high level. It should be emphasized methods. For the Mszanka river, positive values of correlation co-
that the upper Vistula river catchment, where the analysed catch- efficients r for all methods have been demonstrated, which means
ments are located, is an area characterized by widely progressing that along with the prolonged number of observations, the value of
anthropopressure, manifested mainly in the change of use of the EF flows systematically increased. Only for 7Q2 flows, the correla-
catchment area, which also affects the water management of such tion turned out to be insignificant. In case of the Poroniec and
areas (Wojkowski et al., 2019). In addition, human impact is also Grajcarek rivers, the opposite situation was observed, reflecting the
reflected in the significant number of surface water intakes, water negative values of correlation coefficients r for all analysed
discharges, and hydraulic engineering, which affects especially the methods. This means that along the values of environmental flows
course of low waters represented by flows of the analysed
Table 3
Summary of EF flow values determined with the analysed hydrological methods.
River 25% MAF [m3∙s1] 70% Qmed [m3∙s1] Q90 [m3∙s1] 7Q10 [m3∙s1] 7Q2 [m3∙s1]
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn 7
Fig. 4. Unit outflows q determined in relation to EF flows calculated with the methods analysed.
Fig. 5. Values of correlation coefficients determined for the relationship between the values of environmental flows and the length of years for which they were determined.
decrease with the prolonged age. For the Poroniec river, statistically sporadically, due to its size, causes significant overestimation or
insignificant results of the correlation coefficient r were recorded underestimation of median flows. This problem is mainly related to
for the 25% MAF and 70% Qmed methods, whereas for Grajcarek river mountainous catchments, which, due to their geological structure,
it was for the 70% Qmed and 7Q10 methods. In the case of the ski
are characterized by high sensitivity to rapid precipitation (Młyn
Kamienica Nawojowska and Ochotnica rivers, both positive and et al., 2019). As a result, there are short-term high waters in which
negative values of correlation coefficients were obtained. For the the inflow inflates average flows. In addition, the value of MAF
Kamienica Nawojowska river, a positive correlation was found be- flows can be misleading when daily flows assume a two- or multi-
tween the long-term and flow rates of 70% Qmed, Q90 and 7Q2. In modal distribution. EF flows determined on the basis of median
other cases, the correlation was negative. Lack of statistical signif- (70% Qmed) are also subject to certain limitations. Median values are
icance of the analysed factor was noted only for flows determined independent of extremely high or low flows. In the event that such
on the basis of statistical methods. For the Ochotnica river, a flows persist for a longer period of time, the median flow may not
negative correlation with the length of many years showed only be a reliable characteristic of central tendencies. According to
environmental flows, calculated using the statistical method. Caissie et al. (2015) the 70% Qmed approach has limited applications,
However, the lack of statistical significance was demonstrated only mainly in case of large rivers or small rivers with a good baseflow
for the correlation calculated with reference to the 7Q10 method. component. In the case of determining environmental flows as
Establishing the value of environmental flows by the analysed guaranteed flows, a problem arises due to the choice of the meth-
hydrological methods carries with it specific problems. EF flows odology to determine the flow duration curve. Flow values may
calculated as 25% MAF can be primarily characterized by high vary depending on whether they were determined on the basis of
sensitivity to the impact of extreme flows, which though may occur mean annual time curves or on the basis of a perennial curve
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
8 ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn
Fig. 6. Differences between guaranteed flows determined on the basis of mean yearly duration curves (Qp,y) and long-term curves (Qp,m).
for Q90 flows determined on the basis of the analysed curves are as River type of catchment EF values in bioperiods
follows: for Mszanka 0.060 m3 s1, for Poroniec 0.088 m3 s1, for [m3$s1]
the river Grajcarek 0.034 m3 s1, for the Kamienica Nawojowska III-VI VII-IX X-XII I-II
River 0.068 m3 s1 and for the Ochotnica River 0.056 m3 s1.
Mszanka gauged 0.944 0.512 0.148 0.661
Assuming a daily water usage per person on average at 100 dm3, ungauged 1.475 0.707 0.882 1.141
the flow volume equal to 0.001 m3 s1 can meet the water needs of Poroniec gauged 0.593 0.482 0.093 0.355
864 people a day. Therefore, the obtained differences should be ungauged 0.996 0.478 0.596 0.770
considered significant, especially concerning planning the water- Grajcarek gauged 0.506 0.291 0.072 0.268
ungauged 0.734 0.352 0.439 0.568
shed management plans. Similar results were obtained by Kamienica Nawojowska gauged 0.575 0.270 0.074 0.293
We˛glarczyk in his paper (2014), where he also pointed to significant ungauged 1.407 0.675 0.842 1.088
differences between individual quantiles of guaranteed flows in the Ochotnica gauged 0.714 0.394 0.103 0.425
upper Vistula catchment. In addition, it showed that usually ungauged 1.054 0.505 0.630 0.815
perennial curves underestimate the average value of flows.
In case of environmental flows determined by statistical
methods, usually two or three parameter distributions of extreme In rivers where there are no salmonids, feeding bioperiod lasts from
values are used (Grandry et al., 2013; Caissie et al., 2015). There is July to October, there is no autumn spawning season, and winter
no indication of one particular distribution, giving rise to the begins in November. The values of the parameters (pb and p) were
problem of selecting the best-fit theoretical distribution for the determined on the basis of analyses in the MESOHABSIM model
estimation of 7Q10 and 7Q2. The assumption of a unique form of (Parasiewicz et al., 2013) on selected reference sections of rivers
probability distribution is an inappropriate approach, as it indicates that were included in the pilot study. The results of the research
the invariance of mechanisms shaping the size of low flows. It carried out on reference rivers was taken as reference for four types
should be emphasized, however, that currently there is no theory of ichthyological rivers (IeIV), from among six ones found in Poland
explicitly indicating the choice of a particular probability distribu- (KZGW, 2018), while for one ichthyologic type (III) no parameter
tion function for a given situation. Hence, to a lesser or greater values were determined for those streams with spawning of sal-
extent, this function is arbitrarily adopted. As a consequence, monids. (Pusłowska-Tyszewska and Tyszewski, 2018).
different values of flows 7Q10 and 7Q2 can be obtained based on Based on the results summarized in Table 4, it was found that
the same empirical data but using different probability higher values of EF flows calculated using the EMFU method were
distributions. mostly obtained for cases when catchments are treated as unga-
A complement to the conducted research was the determination uged. For the III-IV bioperiod, on average, these flows were higher
of environmental flows using the Eflows Management Framework by 40%, in the VII-IX period by 25%, in the X-XII months by 85% and
and Upscaling (EMFU) method. The results of calculations are pre- for the I-II season by 54%. This indicates that there may be
sented in Table 4. reasonable doubts regarding the application of the EMFU method
In the EMFU method, the ichthyological types defined for the in estimation of environmental flows. This method was developed
needs of estimating environmental flows in the EMFU method on the basis of hydro-biological information from seven catch-
include the following: I e mountain and upland rivers and streams, ments (Parasiewicz et al., 2018). Considering the local nature of the
II e flysch rivers, III e lowland streams, IV e lowland rivers. In turn, relationship between the flow rate and the surface of habitats of
bioperiods designated during the year are as follows: a) spring aquatic organisms, the values of flows required should not be
spawning (MarcheJune), b) feeding (JulyeSeptember), c) autumn transferred to cross-sections not covered by field studies. In addi-
spawning (OctobereDecember), d) wintering (JanuaryeFebruary). tion, the verification of this dependence to calculate EF flows in
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn 9
417647
219651
157262
469208
221714
100
100
100
100
100
based on EMFU (gauged)
Atech acc. (14) with EF
Fig. 7. Flow errors depending on the flow - the water gauge Pyskowice in the Drama
river: source
(KZGW, 2018).
216597
101812
287953
103710
74124
52
46
47
61
47
caters. This fact may give rise to justified doubts as to the quality of
EF based on 7Q2
221106
66451
59806
85911
30
38
47
39
103157
234159
98885
correct.
48
47
45
50
45
191045
52765
75152
gauged.
39
35
34
41
34
Summary of differences of the production of annual electricity from the sample HPP in analysed rivers.
101100
215964
102049
72384
46
46
46
46
low flows from the flow rate curve. Measurements in the low-level
Atech acc. (14) with
219651
157262
469208
221714
Drama river (Fig. 7). The percentage error of the flow rate curve for
100
100
100
100
100
the analysed case is 11.0%. As can be seen, low states zone often
[kWh]
[kWh]
[kWh]
[kWh]
[kWh]
electricity production
electricity production
electricity production
electricity production
% of production
% of production
% of production
% of production
of MLF flows ‘plagued with the risk of larger accidental errors (the
Kamienica
Ochotnica
Grajcarek
suggest that these flows may have less variability in the region,
Table 5
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
10 ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn
characteristic flows and the search for an analogous sub-catchment translate into longer period of investment return acceptable to the
for calculating environmental flows in ungauged catchments. An investor. It seems that for the rivers that do not constitute impor-
important issue seems to be the variability of MLF or MAF flows tant corridors for migrating aquatic organisms, the methods of
depending on the length of the multi-year values used in the cal- adopting one of the other methods not excessively limiting the
culations. The reasons are seen in the previous statement: MLF production of green energy would be optimal.
flows are more sensitive to outliers because LF flows are highly Fig. 8 shows the differences in the calculated amount of
prone to accidental errors even if resulting from incorrect extrap- potentially produced electricity in a hydropower plant broken
olation of the flow rate curve in the low-state zone. In the case of down into the EF estimation methods described above. The pre-
MAF flows, the low values of daily average flows and errors con- sented % is a reference to the theoretical potential (not including EF)
nected with them can be eliminated by higher flows corresponding adopted as 100% (see Table 5).
to the zone of medium states for which the flow curve has smaller The E-flows Management Framework and Upscaling (EMFU)
errors. It should be remembered that not all water gauges are method was used as the means of introducing the variability of EF
characterized by long series of observations. Thus, if the charac- values throughout the year. This method is used in securing water
teristic flows show stability (small variability) regardless of the law permit and the water management instructions on the site;
length of the measurement train, this is advantageous from the there 4 different EF values in force at different seasons during the
point of view of hydrological calculations. It should be remembered year. The total yearly value of annual electricity production for the
that establishing an environmental flow at too high a level is safe analysed rivers is summarized in Table 6.
and desirable for biological reasons, although it contributes to a A variant of the ungauged catchment for the EMFU method al-
barrier preventing socio-economic development related to the ways results in a lower value of the hydropower potential
reduction of disposable water resources (Wałe˛ ga et al., 2015). When expressed in the annual production of electricity (even by 12%). It
using hydrological methods to determine EF, it is necessary to refer would seem that the difference in the size of hydropower potential
the results to the requirements of the aquatic environment, mainly should not depend on whether or not a river is gauged, but should
regarding the dominant organism. Finally, the EF flow value should be determined by its nature and environmental conditions.
correspond to such hydrological characteristics at which survival Therefore, due to differences in both environmental flows and hy-
conditions for the dominant aquatic organism are ensured. The dropower potential in the variant of gauged and ungauged catch-
_
studies described in Ksia˛ zek et al. (2019) constitute an example of ment, this is a factor that raises questions as to the practical
combining hydrological methods with the requirements of aquatic application of the EMFU method.
organisms when determining the EF value. Analysis of Fig. 8 indicates that the biggest discrepancy between
calculation results of the analysed rivers was obtained in EF cal-
4.3. The impact of choosing the EF calculation method on the culations using the 7Q10 and 7Q2 methods. The values obtained are
production of electricity strongly dependent on the rivers’ method of calculating the envi-
ronmental flow. The other methods give results in the range of a
In this work, the above advanced methods of calculating the few percentage differences. When the above five first methods of
value of EF was included in the calculation of the technical potential EF calculation were used, a value valid for the whole year was ob-
for each of the considered rivers. In order to be able to compare the tained., Reference to the types of power plants most commonly
obtained results, calculations were carried out for theoretical encountered in the construction of natural watercourses is
hydrotechnical constructions with the same parameters, i.e. in extremely justified from the point of view of the practical possi-
particular with the same nominal slope of 1.5 m. bility of maintaining the environmental flow. In design practice,
The calculations were done using formulas (12) and (13) in the from the point of view of the real possibility of maintaining the
case of not anticipating for the need to leave EF in the watercourse inviolable flow, the EF value that is invariably valid throughout the
and thereby avoiding the obligation to preserve habitats and spe- year seems universal for each type of hydropower (reservoir, flow,
cies from dependent waters. Formulas (14) and (15) were used for including: friendly and derivative (Fig. 9).
calculations under the conditions of different EF values substituted Determining one full-year value seems necessary especially in
for formula (16) for individual analysed rivers according to their cases where EF is run through a pass, since the efficiency of the fish
values listed in Table 3 using the following hydrological methods: pass is determined by the flow of water that causes the attractant
25% MAF, 70% Qmed, Q90, 7Q2, and 7Q10. stream for the fish at its outlet. Flow control with unchanging de-
Analysis of the obtained results indicates that failure to take into vice structure (overflows) may result in loss of its basic effective-
account the need to maintain the welfare of aquatic organisms, by ness for fish migration. In case of derivative power plants, the EMFU
omitting EF in the calculations, may result in more than twice the method of estimating EF, taking into consideration the annual
estimated value of the expected production of electricity. If EF is seasonality, could be used because it is potentially practicable. It is
considered, the choice of the method generates differences of a few technically possible to control the value of EF left in the river’s main
dozen per cent (maximum 20% for the Kamienica Nawojowska channel by water management devices for the derivation on which
river), which from the point of view of the investment economy the hydropower power plant is installed (weir with the possibility
may turn out to be crucial. Therefore, selection of an optimal of controlling the damming heights or latches, discounts, etc.).
method for determining the value of EF becomes extremely Nevertheless, analysis of the estimated annual production shows
important, both from the point of view of profitability of in- that the use of the EMFU for ungauged catchments method does not
vestments and care for environmental care. The 70% Qmed method give the expected profit in the form of production volume opti-
generates each time the highest EF results and thus the lowest mization. The decision on the choice of the EMFU for gauged
electricity production (except for the Poroniec stream), which catchments method seems feasible and economically justified
would justify its use for watercourses important for bi- (high value of annual production); however, the investor must
environmental fish. Thus, determining the highest possible EF comply with the obligation to control the required EF size in the
would indicate the environmental awareness of the potential main channel. In the case of a potential water law permit, 4
investor. Nevertheless, electricity production from a renewable different EF values are approved in 4 breakdowns per year, which
source, energy of the river current, which is reduced by more than a must be strictly observed. It is also necessary to install water level
dozen per cent, should have economic justification. It should easily depth gauge board (e.g. a gauge patch, steel bolts) in which the 4
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn 11
Fig. 8. Differences in annual electricity production from selected rivers for selected EF estimation methods.
Table 6
Comparison of the HPP hydrotechnical potential value, including EF determined using the EMFU method.
River type of catchment total electricity production [kWh] % share in relation to Ath without EF
ski, D et al., Sensitivity of methods for calculating environmental flows based on hydrological characteristics of
Please cite this article as: Młyn
watercourses regarding the hydropower potential of rivers, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119527
12 ski et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
D. Młyn
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